新能源+AI 周报（第 4 期 20250406-20250412）：铁锂等锂电环 节有望持续向好 ◼ 走势比较 2025 年 04 月 13 日 行业周报 看好/维持 电力设备及新能源 电力设备及新能源 ◼ 子行业评级 (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/4/15 24/6/26 24/9/6 24/11/17 25/1/28 25/4/10 电力设备及新能源 沪深300 | 电站设备Ⅱ | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 电气设备 | 无评级 | | 电源设备 | 无评级 | | 新 能 源 动 力 | 无评级 | | 系统 | | ◼ 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<【太平洋新能源】关税变化对新能 源影响：调整是机会，供应链重塑>>- -2025-04-07 证券分析师：刘强 电话： E-MAIL：liuqiang@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522080001 证券分析师：梁必果 电话： E-MAIL：liangbg@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524010001 证券分析师：钟欣材 电话： E-MAIL：zhongxc@tpy ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue of 789.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8% [3][16] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 101.7 billion yuan, up 62.4% year-on-year and 32.2% quarter-on-quarter [3][16] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising prices of copper and gold, with a strong outlook for both commodities [5][38] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - The company reported a revenue of 789.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of 101.7 billion yuan and a net profit margin of 12.88% [3][16] - The gross profit margin was 22.89%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.28 percentage points [3][16] Production Growth - In Q1 2025, copper production was 288,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, while gold production was 19.1 tons, up 13.4% year-on-year [4][23] - The company is on track to meet its annual production targets for copper and gold, achieving 25% and 22% of the targets respectively in Q1 [4][23] Price and Cost Analysis - The average LME copper price in Q1 2025 was 9,352 USD/ton, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [5][37] - The average Comex gold price was 2,868 USD/ounce, up 38.5% year-on-year [5][38] - The company maintained low production costs, with significant improvements in gross margins across its key products [6][50] Financial Health - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 54.89%, down 3.71 percentage points year-on-year [8][58] - The return on equity (ROE) improved to 7.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.60 percentage points [8][58] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts net profits of 390 billion yuan, 430 billion yuan, and 467 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [64] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the global mining industry, with strong growth potential and effective cost control [64]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The semiconductor product "origin" recognition rules have been published, which will impact the industry dynamics [5]. - The market performance shows a mixed trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.45% and the electronic sector experiencing varied performance across sub-sectors [3]. - Notable individual stock performances include significant gains for companies like Kaide Quartz (+29.97%) and Jinghua Micro (+20.01%) [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 0.72%. The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.22%, and the STAR 50 Index increased by 2.07% [3]. - The electronic sector's performance varied, with passive components up by 3.06% and integrated circuit packaging and testing up by 5.72% [3]. Company Performance - Tongfu Microelectronics reported a revenue of 23.881 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.24%, with net profit rising by 299.90% to 678 million yuan [3]. - Super Sonic Electronics expects a net profit of 3.8 to 4.5 million yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 120.38% to 160.98% [4]. - Nake Equipment reported a revenue of 268 million yuan for 2024, up 35.48%, with net profit increasing by 22.10% [4]. Industry News - The China Semiconductor Industry Association has issued new rules regarding the "origin" of semiconductor products, which will affect how integrated circuits are classified [5].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral," indicating that the expected overall return in the next six months will be between -5% and 5% compared to the CSI 300 Index [10]. Core Insights - The model assumes that the price movements of the underlying assets exhibit good local continuity, with trend reversals occurring less frequently than trend continuations. It also posits that during narrow consolidations, the previous trend will likely continue [3]. - The model's annualized return during the tracking period is 18.08%, with a volatility of 28.87% and a maximum drawdown of 19.93%. However, the total return of the index during the same period is -20.99% [3][4]. - The model's performance varied significantly over different periods, showing small fluctuations around the original value from March 7, 2023, to January 26, 2024, and larger volatility without significant returns from January 26, 2024, to September 25, 2024. After this, the model returned to a positive return trend, albeit with considerable volatility [4]. Summary by Sections Model Overview - The model is designed to track the Shenwan Level 1 Social Service Index, using a specific algorithm to determine trend directions based on price movements and volatility [3]. - The tracking period for the model is from March 7, 2023, to March 18, 2025 [3]. Model Strategy Applicability - The model is not suitable for direct application to the Shenwan Level 1 Social Service Index due to its prolonged periods of significant drawdown compared to the annualized return [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral outlook for the industry, expecting overall returns to be within -5% to 5% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant net outflow of 3.966 billion yuan from broad-based ETFs, with notable inflows into specific ETFs such as the CSI A500 ETF and the CSI 300 ETF [6]. - The industry congestion monitoring model shows that the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors have been experiencing high congestion levels for four consecutive days, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4]. - The report identifies a shift in main capital flows, with increased allocations to retail, defense, and food and beverage sectors, while reducing allocations in electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Fund Flows - Broad-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of 3.966 billion yuan, with the top three inflows being the CSI A500 ETF (+0.554 billion yuan), CSI 300 ETF (+0.457 billion yuan), and CSI 500 ETF (+0.349 billion yuan) [6]. - Industry-themed ETFs saw a net inflow of 1.602 billion yuan, led by the 5G Communication ETF (+0.551 billion yuan) and Communication ETF (+0.407 billion yuan) [6]. - Style strategy ETFs had a slight net outflow of 0.090 billion yuan, with the top inflows being the Dividend Low Volatility 50 ETF (+0.114 billion yuan) [6]. Industry Congestion Monitoring - The report's congestion monitoring model indicates that the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are currently crowded, while the construction materials sector shows lower congestion levels, suggesting a potential area for investment focus [4]. - The textile and apparel sector exhibited significant fluctuations in congestion levels, indicating volatility and potential trading opportunities [4]. ETF Product Signals - The report utilizes a Z-score model to identify potential arbitrage opportunities in ETFs, while also cautioning about the risks of potential corrections in the identified products [5]. - Specific ETFs are highlighted for attention, including the Innovation Drug Industry ETF and the Securities ETF, which are suggested based on their performance metrics [12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the industry, expecting overall returns to be within -5% to 5% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant net inflows into broad-based ETFs, totaling 1690.41 billion CNY over the last three trading days, with a notable focus on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, which remain at high levels of crowding [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring industry crowding levels, with agriculture, steel, and retail sectors showing high crowding, while media and power equipment sectors exhibit lower levels, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4]. - The report also identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in specific ETF products based on the Z-score model, while cautioning about possible pullback risks [5]. Summary by Sections Fund Flows - Broad-based ETFs saw a net inflow of 84.52 billion CNY, with the top three inflows being the CSI 300 ETF from Huaxia (+24.27 billion CNY), the CSI 300 ETF (+17.76 billion CNY), and the CSI 300 ETF from E Fund (+15.66 billion CNY) [6]. - Industry-themed ETFs recorded a net inflow of 5.38 billion CNY, with the top three inflows being the Consumer ETF (+7.81 billion CNY), the Robotics ETF (+5.00 billion CNY), and the Grain ETF (+3.68 billion CNY) [6]. - Style strategy ETFs had a net inflow of 13.78 billion CNY, with the top three inflows being the Dividend ETF (+2.27 billion CNY), the Low Volatility Dividend ETF (+2.13 billion CNY), and the Low Volatility 100 ETF (+1.92 billion CNY) [6]. - Cross-border ETFs experienced a net inflow of 55.97 billion CNY, with the top three inflows being the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (+10.56 billion CNY), the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (+7.04 billion CNY), and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (+6.87 billion CNY) [6]. Industry Crowding Monitoring - The report constructs a crowding monitoring model for the Shenwan first-level industry indices, indicating that agriculture, steel, and retail sectors are currently crowded, while media and power equipment sectors are less so, suggesting areas for potential investment focus [4]. - The report notes significant shifts in main capital flows, with notable inflows into computer, defense, and non-bank financial sectors, while agriculture, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceutical sectors saw outflows [4]. ETF Product Signals - The report utilizes a Z-score model to identify ETF products with potential arbitrage opportunities, while also advising caution regarding potential pullback risks in selected products [5].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, a narrowing of 0.6 percentage points from the previous value of -0.7%[4] - The month-on-month CPI fell by 0.4%, compared to a decline of 0.2% in February 2025, indicating a better-than-seasonal performance[6] - Food prices contributed significantly to the CPI decline, with a month-on-month drop of 1.4%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.24 percentage points[14] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In March 2025, China's PPI decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value of -2.2%[4] - The month-on-month PPI fell by 0.4%, compared to a decrease of 0.1% in February 2025, reflecting ongoing pressure from both external and internal factors[23] - Production materials and living materials both showed weakness, with significant downward pressure on prices from upstream industries and durable consumer goods[27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not specified in the report, but it indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, expecting returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that on April 10, 2025, the equity market saw most sectors rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index increasing by 1.16% and 2.46%, respectively. The real estate index rose by 2.20% [4]. - Real estate stocks generally performed well, with significant gains observed in companies such as Gree Real Estate and China Communications Construction, which saw increases of 10.06% and 10.02%, respectively [5]. - A notable transaction was reported where Greentown acquired a residential land parcel in Jiaxing South Lake for 834 million yuan, reflecting a premium of 35.85% over the starting price [6]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the real estate sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the overall market sentiment improving as evidenced by the rise in major indices and individual stock performances [4][5]. - Specific details of the land acquisition include a total area of 50,158 square meters, with a residential area of 40,158 square meters and a commercial area of 10,000 square meters, showcasing ongoing development activities in the sector [6]. Company Announcements - China Merchants Shekou announced that in March 2025, the company achieved a signed sales area of 595,000 square meters, translating to a sales amount of 15.617 billion yuan [9]. - The report also mentions changes in management at Vanke Financial Company, indicating ongoing corporate governance developments within the industry [7].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is Neutral, indicating that the expected overall return in the next six months will be between -5% and 5% relative to the CSI 300 index [12]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing an overall increase in stock prices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.25% on April 10, 2025 [4]. - Key individual stock performances include Hengxing Technology (+10.07%), Huada New Materials (+9.96%), and Guoda Special Materials (+8.42%) [5]. - The report highlights three steel projects included in Hunan Province's key construction projects for 2025, emphasizing the government's commitment to supporting the steel industry [7]. Industry Data Summary - Futures prices show an increase in rebar (+2.01%), wire rod (+3.49%), hot-rolled coil (+2.01%), iron ore (+3.06%), and coke (+1.91%) [6]. - Current prices for steel products are as follows: iron ore at 717.51 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3354.59 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3247.64 CNY/ton, rebar at 3112.99 CNY/ton, coke at 1567.24 CNY/ton, and coking coal at 964.37 CNY/ton [6]. - The Platts index for iron ore shows 65% fines at 108, 58% fines at 81.45, and 62% fines at 95.75 [6]. Company Announcements - Jiu Steel Group has secured a 2.6 billion CNY financial loan for transformation, with the first tranche of 1 billion CNY already disbursed [8]. - The report mentions that the first quarter of 2025 saw strong performance from Pangang Group, achieving production and profit targets [9]. - Taiyuan Iron and Steel Group's high-end cold-rolled oriented silicon steel project has been recognized as a benchmark project in Shanxi Province [9].

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is neutral, with specific sub-industry ratings as follows: Chemical Pharmaceuticals - no rating, Traditional Chinese Medicine - no rating, Biopharmaceutical II - neutral, Other Pharmaceuticals - neutral [3] Core Insights - As of April 9, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector experienced a slight increase of +0.37%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.62 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 sub-industries. The best-performing sub-industries included offline pharmacies (+2.72%), hospitals (+1.97%), and medical devices (+1.27%), while the worst performers were medical R&D outsourcing (-0.98%), blood products (-0.96%), and medical consumables (+0.19%) [5] - IVIEW announced that its IVIEW-1201 (1.0% Povidone-Iodine Ophthalmic Gel) has received orphan drug designation from the FDA for the treatment of fungal keratitis. This drug demonstrates a unique bactericidal mechanism and innovative delivery method, showing advantages in rapidly killing various pathogens without developing resistance, along with long-lasting release and high safety [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's performance on April 9, 2025, was +0.37%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.62 percentage points, with offline pharmacies, hospitals, and medical devices leading the gains [5] Industry News - IVIEW's IVIEW-1201 received orphan drug status from the FDA for treating fungal keratitis, showcasing a unique mechanism and delivery method [6] - Aohua Endoscopy reported a revenue of 750 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.54%, but a net profit decline of 63.68% [6] - Wanfu Biology achieved a revenue of 3.065 billion yuan in 2024, up 10.85%, with a net profit increase of 15.18% [6] - Fuyuan Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for Dapagliflozin tablets, enhancing its product line [7] - Haixiang Pharmaceutical announced a share buyback plan with a total amount of 150-300 million yuan [7]