2025 年 04 月 06 日 行业周报 看好/维持 基础化工 基础化工 化工新材料周报（20250331-20250406）： 溴素价格继续上涨，EVA 价格趋稳 走势比较 (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/4/8 24/6/19 24/8/30 24/11/10 25/1/21 25/4/3 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 <<国光股份 2024 年报点评： 低成本 +新商业模式推动，公司业绩创新 高>>--2025-04-03 <<华鲁恒升 2024 年报点评： 双基地 效能提升，公司业绩韧性凸显>>-- 2025-04-03 <<卫星化学 2024 年报及 2025 年一季 度业绩预报点评： 盈利能力提升+新 能源材料大幅增长推动业绩创历史 新高>>--2025-04-03 证券分析师：王亮 E-MAIL：wangl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522120001 证券分析师：王海涛 E-MAIL：wanght@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523010001 报告摘要 1.重点子行业及产品情况跟踪 EVA：年初以来价格企稳并小幅反弹。 ...

2025 年 04 月 03 日 公司点评 买入/维持 海天味业(603288) 目标价: 47.88 昨收盘:40.67 海天味业：2024 年领先行业增长，来年稳增可期 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/4/3 24/6/15 24/8/27 24/11/8 25/1/20 25/4/3 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 55.61/55.61 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 2,261.5/2,261 | | | .5 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 52.99/33.08 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<海天味业：经营向上恢复，调整效 果渐显>>--2024-10-30 <<海天味业：2024Q2 经营韧性增长， 业绩超预期>>--2024-09-03 <<海天味业：2024Q1 开门红略超预 期，经营稳步恢复>>--2024-04-30 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 证券分析师：肖依琳 电话： E-MAIL：xiaoyl@tpyzq.c ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in tin and indium production, with a notable increase in non-recurring net profit [1][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 41.973 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.5% to 1.444 billion yuan [3][4] - The company aims to produce 90,000 tons of tin in 2025, reflecting a strong production target [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a non-recurring net profit of 1.94 billion yuan, a significant increase of 40.5% year-on-year [3][6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 12.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.6% [3] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 9.59% and 3.44%, respectively, showing slight improvements [5] Production and Market Position - The company maintained its position as the global leader in tin production, with a domestic market share of 47.98% and a global market share of 25.03% in 2024 [4] - Production volumes for 2024 included 78,000 tons of tin ingots, 130,000 tons of copper products, and 127 tons of indium ingots, with respective year-on-year increases of 19.4%, 0.8%, and 24.5% [4] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 2.22 billion yuan, 2.57 billion yuan, and 2.86 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6][7] - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 10.8% in 2025, followed by 5.4% in 2026 and 3.81% in 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 72.95, compared to the last closing price of 56.99 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous growth in revenue and profit, with all three major business segments performing well. In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 8.813 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.99%, and a net profit of 2.011 billion, up 24.77% year-on-year [3][4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue growth is driven by three main business segments: 1. Tire mold business generated 4.651 billion in revenue, up 22.73% year-on-year, with domestic sales growth outpacing exports [4]. 2. Large component machinery products achieved 3.332 billion in revenue, a 20.31% increase, benefiting from strong demand in the gas turbine market and a recovery in wind power orders [4]. 3. CNC machine tools generated 399 million in revenue, marking a 29.30% increase, with applications across various industries including automotive and electronics [4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's profitability remains stable, with a gross margin of 34.30% and a net margin of 22.85% in 2024. The gross margin slightly decreased due to changes in product mix and increased personnel costs [5]. - The company effectively managed its expenses, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing controlled changes [5]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 10.354 billion, 11.750 billion, and 13.306 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Net profits are expected to be 2.335 billion, 2.675 billion, and 3.062 billion for the same years [7][5].

◼ 走势比较 (20%) (10%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/4/3 24/6/15 24/8/27 24/11/8 25/1/20 25/4/3 ◼ 子行业评级 相关研究报告 <<太平洋机械日报（20250402）：特 斯拉发布最新演示视频，机器人再次 更新>>--2025-04-03 <<太平洋机械日报（20250401）：普 渡机器人发布全球首款商类人形具 身智能服务机器人>>--2025-04-02 <<太平洋机械日报（20250331）：具 身智能研究院发布人形机器人矩 阵>>--2025-04-01 2025 年 04 月 03 日 行业日报 看好/维持 机械 机械 太平洋机械日报（20250403）：3 月工程机械主要产品月平均工作 90.1 小时，同比增长 6.53% 证券分析师：张凤琳 E-MAIL：zhangfl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523100001 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 证券分析师：崔文娟 市场表现： 2025 年 4 月 3 日，沪深 300 下跌 0.59%，机械板块下跌 2.13%，在 所有一级行业中排名 28。细分行业看 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy/Maintain" with a target price based on the last closing price of 27.01 [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company has achieved record-high performance, highlighting its position as a rare high-growth and high-dividend core asset in the global new energy bus market [8] - The company is expected to benefit from domestic and international market growth, particularly in the new energy bus segment, with a forecasted revenue increase from 372.18 billion yuan in 2024 to 518.59 billion yuan by 2027 [8][10] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 372.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.64%, and a net profit of 41.16 billion yuan, up 126.53% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin for 2024 was 22.94%, with a net margin of 11.06%, indicating significant improvement in profitability driven by export and new energy bus business growth [5] - The company sold 46,900 buses in 2024, marking a 28.48% increase year-on-year, with a market share of 37.82% in the domestic market [6] Sales and Market Dynamics - The domestic demand for new energy buses is expected to continue growing, supported by government subsidies averaging 80,000 yuan per vehicle [6] - The company’s export sales of large and medium-sized buses reached 13,500 units in 2024, a 32.73% increase year-on-year, capturing a 30.26% market share [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 408.87 billion yuan, 469.74 billion yuan, and 518.59 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 44.05 billion yuan, 51.66 billion yuan, and 58.89 billion yuan [8][10] - The report anticipates continued growth in profitability, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to rise from 1.99 yuan in 2025 to 2.66 yuan in 2027 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519) with a target price of 1888.75, compared to the last closing price of 1549.02 [1]. Core Views - Guizhou Moutai achieved a total operating revenue of 174.144 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, with a focus on stabilizing the pricing of its flagship products and enhancing its product mix [6][7]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 92.08%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.04 percentage points, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of series liquor sales [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor was 145.928 billion yuan and 24.684 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.28% and 19.65% [5]. - The total sales volume of liquor reached 83,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.73%, with Moutai liquor and series liquor sales volumes growing by 10.22% and 18.47%, respectively [5]. - The company reported a cash flow from operating activities of 182.645 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.57% increase year-on-year [7]. Future Outlook - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are 9.1%, 9.4%, and 8.5%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 10.1%, 9.8%, and 8.7% [8][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 75.6 yuan, 83 yuan, and 90.3 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][9]. Market Position - The company is focusing on expanding its international market presence, with overseas revenue reaching 5.188 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.27% [5]. - Guizhou Moutai plans to enhance its product offerings by developing new products to meet diverse consumer demands [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yangnong Chemical [1][12] Core Views - Yangnong Chemical's 2024 revenue decreased by 9.09% year-on-year to 10.435 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 23.19% to 1.202 billion yuan. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.80 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [5][6] - Despite an increase in sales volume, the decline in product prices has pressured the company's performance. The average price of key products has reached historical lows, impacting revenue and profitability [5][6] - The Huludao project is expected to contribute additional revenue, with an estimated annual income of over 2 billion yuan once fully operational [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Yangnong Chemical achieved total revenue of 10.435 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.09% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.202 billion yuan, down 23.19% [5][6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 2.419 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.76%, but net profit decreased by 13.71% year-on-year [5] - The company's gross margin fell by 2.59 percentage points to 23.11%, and net margin decreased by 2.12 percentage points to 11.53% [5] Production and Capacity Expansion - The Huludao project is planned to produce 15,650 tons of pesticide raw materials and intermediates annually, with the first phase already yielding qualified products. The second phase is expected to contribute additional revenue in the second half of 2025 [6] - The company has expanded its patent portfolio in pyrethroid synthesis to 62 patents and has achieved a purity breakthrough in a key product [6] Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.38 yuan, 3.97 yuan, and 4.40 yuan, respectively [6] - Revenue is expected to grow at a rate of 10.28% in 2025 and 10.52% in 2026, with net profit growth rates of 14.45% and 17.39% for the same years [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy/Maintain" with a target price of 18, compared to the last closing price of 14.66 [1]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong growth in net profit excluding non-recurring items, with a significant decrease in sales expense ratio [4][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 4.159 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.99%, and a net profit of 712 million yuan, which is a 15.04% increase year-on-year [4][9]. - The company is focusing on innovation, with the launch of its first innovative drug, and has invested 383 million yuan in R&D in 2024 [6]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue from finished drugs grew by 8.42% year-on-year, while raw material drug revenue declined by 8.37% [4]. - The overall gross profit margin was 49.96%, slightly down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [5]. - The company expects revenues of 4.367 billion yuan, 4.673 billion yuan, and 5.047 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 820 million yuan, 911 million yuan, and 1.015 billion yuan [7][9]. R&D and Innovation - The company has made significant progress in its R&D efforts, with ongoing clinical trials for several innovative drugs [6]. - The innovative drug, which treats schizophrenia, is nearing the end of its Phase II clinical trials, and another drug for ulcerative colitis is also progressing well [6]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual weakening of the impact of centralized procurement in hospitals and has significant growth potential in the outpatient market [7]. - The projected PE ratios for the company are 15, 14, and 12 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Caifu (300059) with a target price based on the last closing price of 22.20 [1] Core Insights - Dongfang Caifu's 2024 annual report shows revenue of 11,604.34 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.72%, and a net profit of 9,610.12 million yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [4][8] - The company has seen an increase in market share in brokerage and margin financing businesses, benefiting from a recovering capital market [5] - The company is focusing on AI and financial integration, with a significant increase in R&D investment [6][7] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 is reported at 116.04 billion yuan, with a net profit of 96.10 billion yuan, resulting in a return on equity (ROE) of 12.64% [4] - Brokerage trading volume reached 24.24 trillion yuan, with a market share of 4.71%, an increase of 0.70 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company's investment income and fair value changes totaled 33.71 billion yuan, reflecting a 50.79% year-on-year increase [5] Market Position - As of the end of the reporting period, the company's non-monetary fund and equity fund holdings were 611.62 billion yuan and 382.38 billion yuan, respectively [6] - The company maintains a leading position in third-party sales institutions, second only to Ant Fund [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 127.03 billion yuan, 140.36 billion yuan, and 158.59 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 107.17 billion yuan, 120.22 billion yuan, and 137.33 billion yuan [7][8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 0.68 yuan, 0.76 yuan, and 0.87 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 33.26, 29.65, and 25.95 [7][8]