Guang Fa Qi Huo
Search documents
《金融》日报-20251031
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:04
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical quantiles, and all - time historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is - 19.91, with a change of - 4.67, a 1 - year quantile of 40.50%, and an all - time quantile of 23.20% [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - It shows the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL). For instance, the TS basis is 1.9289, with a change of - 0.0721 and a listing - since quantile of 50.50%. The calculation methods of basis, quantiles, and spreads are also provided [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - The report includes domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, yields, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals (gold and silver). For example, the AU2512 contract closed at 912.16 on October 30, up 1.28 from the previous day, with a gain of 0.14%. The gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 4.88, down 6.42 from the previous value, with a 1 - year quantile of 5.60% [4]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - It provides spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry. For example, the CMA CGM spot quote from Shanghai to Europe on October 31 is 2932 dollars/FEU, up 144 from the previous day, with a gain of 5.16%. The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on October 27 is 1312.71, up 172.3 from October 20, with a gain of 15.11% [5]. Group 5: Capital Flow and Key Seats' Position Change Daily Report - The document seems incomplete, with no clear and analyzable content about capital flow and key seats' position changes [6].
股指期货持仓日度跟踪-20251031
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It shows that on October 30, 2025, the total positions of all four types of stock - index futures increased, with significant increases in IF and IM, and obvious increases in IH and IC. There were also notable position - adding actions by major institutions such as Citic and Guotai Junan in different varieties [1][4][10][15][21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On October 30, the total position of the IF variety increased by 12,176 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 4,614 lots [4] - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 40,839 lots. Guotai Junan Futures added the most long - positions, with an intraday increase of 2,779 lots, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures reduced the most long - positions, with an intraday decrease of 739 lots [5] - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 45,042 lots. CITIC Futures added the most short - positions, with an intraday increase of 2,795 lots, while CITIC Construction Investment Futures reduced the most short - positions, with an intraday decrease of 787 lots [7] IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On October 30, the total position of the IH variety increased by 7,069 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 4,259 lots [10] - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 13,861 lots. Guotai Junan Futures added the most long - positions, with an intraday increase of 1,810 lots, while Nanhua Futures reduced the most long - positions, with an intraday decrease of 168 lots [10] - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 15,849 lots. CITIC Futures added the most short - positions, with an intraday increase of 1,845 lots, while Bank of China Futures reduced the most short - positions, with an intraday decrease of 35 lots [11] IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On October 30, the total position of the IC variety increased by 7,396 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 1,201 lots [15] - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 41,157 lots. CITIC Futures added the most long - positions, with an intraday increase of 2,426 lots, while Shenyin & Wanguo Futures reduced the most long - positions, with an intraday decrease of 497 lots [16] - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 44,615 lots. Guotai Junan Futures added the most short - positions, with an intraday increase of 2,297 lots, while SDIC Futures reduced the most short - positions, with an intraday decrease of 249 lots [18] IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On October 30, the total position of the IM variety increased by 20,311 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 10,104 lots [21] - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 54,031 lots. Guotai Junan Futures added the most long - positions, with an intraday increase of 5,288 lots, while Zheshang Futures reduced the most long - positions, with an intraday decrease of 551 lots [21] - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 74,945 lots. Guotai Junan Futures added the most short - positions, with an intraday increase of 4,318 lots, while SDIC Futures reduced the most short - positions, with an intraday decrease of 335 lots [22]
广发早知道:汇总版-20251031
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 00:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market shows a complex and diverse trend. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, some macro - favorable factors are gradually implemented, but different sectors have different performances. Some sectors are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy and cost factors [2][9][20]. - In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are affected by Sino - US consensus and market expectations, and there are opportunities for short - term option operations; treasury bond futures are expected to have short - term trading opportunities with the implementation of risk - preference factors; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and economic factors and are expected to have a long - term bull market [2][6][9]. - In the commodity futures market, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper has long - term supply - demand contradictions to support the price, while aluminum is affected by macro and fundamental factors and maintains a high - level shock [20][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the market digested the expectations and adjusted. The A - share market declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. It is recommended to try to sell put options at the support level or construct a bullish call spread [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Negative factors are gradually implemented, and the bond market sentiment is enhanced. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [6][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, geopolitical concerns resurfaced, and precious metals fluctuated and rebounded. In the long - term, they are expected to have a bull market, while in the short - term, gold may face downward pressure, and silver maintains a shock pattern [9][12]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot market is cold, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The bullish expectations of interest rate cuts and tariffs are fulfilled, and the price fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the price, and in the short - term, it is affected by demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 87,000 [20]. - **Alumina**: The spot price in the north shows signs of stopping falling, and the futures price stabilizes at a low level. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short - term, and the main contract fluctuates between 2,750 - 2,950 [20][23]. - **Aluminum**: The price is strong, affected by macro and fundamental factors, and is expected to maintain a high - level shock. The main contract reference range is 20,800 - 21,400 [24][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is firm, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The price is expected to maintain a strong shock, and the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 [26][28]. - **Zinc**: The spot transaction is average, and the price fluctuates. The supply increase may be limited, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to maintain a shock, and the main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 [31][32]. - **Tin**: Powell's hawkish attitude on the December interest rate cut may cause the short - term price to fall. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [32][35]. - **Nickel**: After the Sino - US meeting, the macro is stable, and the price fluctuates. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 [35][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuates, and the supply pressure increases. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 [39][42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price center moves up, and the demand is strong. The main contract reference range is 83,000 - 87,000 [42][45]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The supply and demand are neutral, and the inventory pressure is not large. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply of coking coal and reduce positions at high - pressure levels [47][48]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price falls after rising. It is recommended to close long positions and pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [49][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is strong, and the downstream replenishment demand is warm. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [52][55]. - **Coke**: The mainstream coke enterprises start the third round of price increase, and the cost is supported by coking coal. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [56][59]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: China's confidence in purchasing US soybeans is enhanced, and the near - month soybeans have cost support. The domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong [60][62]. - **Pigs**: The entry of secondary fattening slows down, and the pig price tends to fluctuate. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [63][64]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure still exists, and the price fluctuates weakly. The port price is affected by inventory and cost [65].
广发期货-《有色》日报-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 07:06
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market is watching the Sino-US summit. The copper price was strong yesterday. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, the rapid increase in price suppresses demand. The market should focus on the marginal changes in demand and Sino-US tariffs, with the main contract supported around 87,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The alumina price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price has continued to be strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance, and the aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and oscillated at a high level. The cost support is strong, and the supply-demand relationship is in a tight balance. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro environment is warm. The zinc price oscillated strongly yesterday. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is stable. The LME has the risk of a short squeeze, and the export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price is supported in the short term but may continue to oscillate [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low-buying strategy on dips is recommended. The market should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated yesterday. The macro sentiment has improved, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, the inventory accumulation exerts some pressure. The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price oscillated and rose slightly yesterday. The macro environment is positive, but the nickel-iron and ferrochrome prices are under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was strong yesterday. The production has increased, and the demand is optimistic. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the market watching whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 334,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The average price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1,774 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -40 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.17%. The export volume was 2,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 15.13% month-on-month. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.26%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.00% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 manufacturers) was 1.8217 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 120,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.70% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. The SMM industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [16].
广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 07:05
1. Glass and Soda Ash 1.1 Investment Rating Not provided 1.2 Core View The supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, but previous phased negatives are mostly out. It's recommended to close out previous short positions, wait and see in the short - term, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. For glass, the market has stabilized and rebounded recently, but the industry's supply - demand situation remains weak in the long - term [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained unchanged, while futures prices of some contracts increased. The basis of some contracts decreased significantly [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash's operating rate, weekly output, and float - glass daily melting volume increased, while photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventories and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories increased [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area all showed different degrees of change, mostly negative [1]. 2. Logs 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Log futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Although the current price has cost support, there are expectations of weakening fundamentals in the future, including increased supply and weakening demand [3]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices fluctuated, and some spot prices remained unchanged, while some in Rizhao Port decreased [3]. - **Supply**: The number of pre - arriving log ships and the arrival volume increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The total national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily average outbound volume increased [3]. 3. Natural Rubber 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View In the short - term, the Fed's hawkish stance on December interest - rate cuts may put pressure on rubber prices. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. The price may run around 15,000 - 15,500 if raw material supply is difficult, and may decline further if supply goes smoothly [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Some spot and raw material prices remained unchanged, while some had small fluctuations. The basis and monthly spreads also changed [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in different countries and regions, tire production, exports, and tire factory operating rates all showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Inventory**: The bonded and general - trade inventory in the protected area decreased, while the futures inventory in the factory warehouse increased [5]. 4. Polysilicon 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Polysilicon is mainly in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the establishment of the platform company and production control, as well as whether there is an increase in demand orders to support supply growth [7]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices decreased slightly, and futures prices increased and then fell back. The monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production, imports, exports, and net exports all showed different trends [7]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. 5. Industrial Silicon 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Industrial silicon is expected to be in a low - level oscillation. Although supply increases put pressure on prices, there is also cost support below [8]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices remained unchanged, and futures prices increased. The basis and monthly spreads changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: National and regional industrial silicon production, operating rates, and production of downstream products all showed different trends [8]. - **Inventory**: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories decreased slightly, while non - warehouse - receipt inventories increased slightly [8].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 06:29
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The supply - demand gap of steel in October narrowed again. The production of five major steel products was lower than the apparent demand, and the apparent demand was close to the level of the same period last year with little inventory pressure. The January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to recover at the previous high. Hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure (rebar 3200 and hot - rolled coil 3400 yuan/ton). The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage has widened as the coil strengthened. With coal production cut, the arbitrage order can be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - After the previous callback, the negative factors of iron ore have been fully digested. Unilateral trading strategy turns to buying the Iron Ore 2601 contract on dips, with the reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to conduct a positive spread arbitrage between Iron Ore 1 - 5 contracts [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. Speculative trading suggests buying Coke 2601 on dips, with the reference range of 1700 - 1850. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke, but be aware of large market fluctuations. For coking coal, short - term fluctuations do not affect the fourth - quarter bullish view. Unilateral trading recommends short - term buying on dips for Coking Coal 2601, with the reference range of 1200 - 1350. The arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke, and pay attention to large market fluctuations [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3220 to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coil increased from 3316 to 3358 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billet and plate billet were 3000 yuan and 3730 yuan respectively, with the steel billet price increasing by 20 yuan. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions mostly declined. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan to 17 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3 tons, an increase of 1.0%. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil also increased to some extent [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9 tons, a decline of 1.7%. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased, with the rebar inventory decreasing by 18.9 to 622.1 tons, a decline of 3.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5 tons, an increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the basis of the 01 contract for some powders decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder increased from 844.7 to 854.6 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 52.2 to 50.1 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port and some price indexes increased slightly. For example, the price of PB powder in Rizhao Port increased from 796.0 to 805.0 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1 tons, a decline of 19.5%, while the global weekly shipping volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4 tons, an increase of 1.6%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 tons, an increase of 10.6% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The daily average port clearance volume decreased by 23.8 to 312.7 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production also decreased [3]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory continued to accumulate, with a decrease of 112.4 to 14311.15 tons, a decline of 0.8%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2 tons, an increase of 1.1% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal contracts and some spot prices increased. For example, the 01 contract price of coke increased from 1748 to 1801 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price of coking coal increased from 1242 to 1302 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The daily average coke production of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.7 to 64.6 tons, a decline of 1.04%. The production of coking coal in some regions decreased due to safety and governance issues [6]. Demand - The iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9 tons, a decline of 0.4%. The demand for coke and coking coal was affected by the decline in iron water production [6]. Inventory Changes - For coke, coking plants and steel mills reduced inventory, while ports increased inventory. For coking coal, mines, coal washing plants, and steel mills reduced inventory, while coking plants, ports, and borders increased inventory [6].
广发期货《有色》日报-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 06:21
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - The central bank's interest rate cut and the upcoming Sino - US meeting are factors affecting the market. The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price bottom, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream buyers is rising. Although short - term price increases may suppress demand, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is stabilizing at a low level, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The aluminum price is strong, with a tight - balance fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is rigidly supported, and the supply - demand is in a tight - balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints [5]. Zinc - The macro - environment is warm, and the supply of zinc is gradually increasing, but the increase may be limited. The demand is stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts, the short - term tin price may fall, but it may rise if the supply from Myanmar does not recover well [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is improving, and the cost is supported by the firm ore price. However, the inventory accumulation restricts the price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving, with increasing demand and tight raw material supply. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is pressure at the 83,000 level [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.16% to 87,905 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 21,170 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined price difference in Foshan decreased [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,290 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.32% to 285,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 160 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.20% to 121,900 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 226 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% to 41.85 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.83% to 79,150 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 320 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and the demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons [16].
全品种价差日报-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:10
Report Overview - Report Date: October 30, 2025 [2] - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, GF Futures Research Institute [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the given content Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: Futures price is 5594, down 0.29%; spot price is 5578, up 1.67% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price has a 44.10% change; specific futures price data not fully shown [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Futures price is 3240, up 51.10% compared to previous data; spot price is 3133 [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price is 3360, up 23.70% compared to previous data; futures price is 3345 [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Futures price is 802, down 5.02%; spot price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder at Rizhao Port is 867, up 50.50% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price is 1711; spot price is 1801, up 17.98% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Futures price is 1344; spot price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1302, up 34.40% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: Futures price is 88710; spot price is 87765, up 2.91%; SMM open discount is - 60 [1] - **Aluminum (AL2512)**: Futures price is 21295; spot price is 21170, down 0.59%; SMM open discount is - 125 [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Futures price is 2879; spot price of SMM alumina modulus average is 2875 [1] - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: Futures price is 22430; spot price of SMM 1 zinc ingot average is 22220, down 0.94%; SMM open JEX is - 210 [1] - **Tin (SN2512)**: Futures price is 286720; spot price of SMM 1 tin average is 285200, down 0.53%; SMM open discount is - 1520 [1] - **Nickel (NI2512)**: Futures price is 121540; spot price of SMM 1 imported nickel average is 121200, down 0.28%; SMM open discount is - 340 [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: Futures price is 13120; spot price of 304/2B stainless steel at Wuxi Hongwang is 12805, up 66.52% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2601)**: Futures price is 82900; spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average is 79150, down 4.52% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (215601)**: Futures price is 9350; spot price of SMM East China oxygen - passing Si5530 average is 9170, up 1.96% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: Futures price is 910.9; spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) is 912.4, up 0.17%; basis is 1.5, basis rate is 0.11%, historical quantile is 99.50% [1] - **Silver (AG2512)**: Futures price is 11351.0; spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) is 11338.0, up 0.11%; basis is 13.0, basis rate is 0.11%, historical quantile is 96.90% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Futures price is 2969.0; spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal at Jiangsu Zhangjiagang factory is 2920, down 1.65%; basis is - 49.0, basis rate is 1.70%, historical quantile is 29.20% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Futures price is 8132.0; spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil at Jiangsu Zhangjiagang factory is 8270, up 27.60%; basis is 138.0, basis rate is 1.70% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Futures price is 8842.0; spot price of palm oil at Huangpu Port delivery price is 8730, up 127%; basis is - 112.0, basis rate is 4.20%, historical quantile is 5.77% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Futures price is 2373.0; spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal at Guangdong Zhanjiang factory is 2510, up 3.83%; basis is 137.0, historical quantile is 71.10% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleo1)**: Futures price is 9525.0; spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil at Jiangsu Nantong factory is 84.60% higher than previous data; basis is 365.0, basis rate is 0.19% [1] - **Corn (C2601)**: Futures price is 2120; spot price of corn at Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price is 2116.0, up 43.80%; basis is 4.0 [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: Futures price is 2427.0; spot price of corn starch at Jilin Changchun factory is 2550, up 5.07%; basis is 123.0, historical quantile is 62.30% [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: Futures price is 12185.0; spot price of live hogs (outside ternary) at Henan factory is 12550, up 52.60%; basis is 365.0 [1] - **Eggs (JD2512)**: Futures price is 3165.0; spot price of eggs at Hebei Shijiazhuang average price is 2960, down 6.48%; basis is - 205.0, historical quantile is 17.70% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Futures price is 13620.0; spot price of cotton (3128B) at Xinjiang factory is 14650, up 61.50%; basis is 1030.0 [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Futures price is 5780; spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou platform is 5494.0, up 5.21%; basis is 286.0, historical quantile is 46.90% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Futures price is 8840; spot price of apples (delivery theoretical price) is 9198.0, up 6.50%; basis is - 358.0, basis rate is 3.89% [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: Futures price is 9600; spot price of first - grade grey jujubes at Hebei wholesale price is 10495.0, up 53.40%; basis is - 895.0, basis rate is - 8.53% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: Futures price is 6693.0; spot price of paraxylene at Chinese main port (CFR) converted to RMB is 6652.0, up 12.20%; basis is 41.0, historical quantile is - 161% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Futures price is 4545.0; spot price of purified terephthalic acid in East China is 4636.0, up 20.00%; basis is 91.0, basis rate is 2.00% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Futures price is 4180.0; spot price of ethylene glycol in East China is 4100.0, up 75.00%; basis is - 80.0 [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PFS12)**: Futures price is 6365.0; spot price of polyester staple fiber in East China market is 6268.0, up 74.30%; basis is 97.0, basis rate is 2.12% [1] - **Styrene (EB2512)**: Futures price is 6460.0; spot price of styrene in East China is 6513.0, up 4.59%; basis is - 53.0, historical quantile is 75.30% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Futures price is 2210.0; spot price of methanol at Jiangsu Taicang is 2257.0, down 2.19%; basis is - 47.0, basis rate is 0.97% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Futures price is 1644.0; spot price of urea in Shandong is 1600.0, down 5.50%; basis is - 44.0 [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Futures price is 7010.0; spot price of linear low - density polyethylene in Shandong is 7009.0, up 1.35%; basis is 1.0, historical quantile is 57.30% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Futures price is 6615.0; spot price of polypropylene in Zhejiang is 6685.0, up 48.60%; basis is - 70.0 [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Futures price is 4620.0; spot price of polyvinyl chloride in Changzhou is 4775.0, up 3.71%; basis is - 155.0, historical quantile is 33.20% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Futures price is 2500.0; spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is 2361.0, up 70.40%; basis is 139.0 [1] - **LPG (PG2512)**: Futures price is 4312.0; spot price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou is 4398.0, up 6.08%; basis is 86.0, historical quantile is 48.10% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: Futures price is 3274.0; spot price of asphalt in Shandong is 3280.0, up 93.40%; basis is 6.0 [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2512)**: Futures price is 11000.0; spot price of butadiene rubber in China is 10795.0, up 62.00%; basis is 205.0 [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price is 1044.0; spot price of float glass in Shahe is 1127.0, up 42.43%; basis is - 83.0, basis rate is - 7.95% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Futures price is 1259.0; spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1209.0, down 4.14%; basis is - 50.0, basis rate is - 5.93% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Futures price is 15625.0; spot price of natural rubber in Shanghai is 14750.0, down 35.30%; basis is - 875.0 [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: Futures price is 4732.6; spot price is 4747.8, down 0.32%; basis is - 15.2, historical quantile is 29.10% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Futures price is 3064.8; spot price is 3063.0, up 0.06%; basis is 1.8, historical quantile is 66.90% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7481.0; spot price is 7390.0, up 1.23%; basis is - 91.0, historical quantile is 4.50% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7446.4; spot price is 7569.1, down 1.65%; basis is - 122.7, historical quantile is 13.70% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **TS2512**: Futures price is 102.37; spot price is 99.94, up 20.00%; basis is - 0.02, basis rate is - 0.02%, conversion factor is 0.9765 [1] - **TF2512**: Futures price is 105.72; spot price is 99.39, up 21.80%; basis is - 0.04, basis rate is - 0.04%, conversion factor is 0.9405 [1] - **T2512**: Futures price is 108.10; spot price is 100.19, up 21.10%; basis is 0.05, basis rate is 0.05%, conversion factor is 0.9264 [1] - **TL2512**: Futures price is 114.48; spot price is 129.31, up 37.50%; basis is 0.25, basis rate is 1.1271, conversion factor is 0.28 [1]
广发期货日评-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan proposal and the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting in South Korea have stimulated the market, with risk appetite significantly increasing. Different sectors in the market show various trends and investment opportunities, influenced by factors such as macro - economic expectations, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The meeting between China and the US and macro - expectations have stimulated the index to recover. It is recommended to try to sell put options at the support level with a light position or construct a bull call spread to capture the upward potential [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term wide - money expectations, Sino - US relations, and profit - taking needs may affect the bond market, leading to possible fluctuations. However, with the recovery of bond market sentiment and the support of the restart expectation of treasury bond trading, there may be trading opportunities for band - up movements. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Market risk appetite has continued to rise, causing funds to flow out rapidly. After a significant decline, gold and silver prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy gold at a low price below $4000 after the Fed's decision, and pay attention to the trend of silver at around $47 [3]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The EC main contract shows short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel inventory reduction supports the strengthening of steel prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the previous high pressure for long positions and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline in shipments and arrivals, and the increase in port inventory and a slight decrease in hot - metal output, iron ore continues to rebound. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is running strongly, and the downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coke enterprises have initiated the third round of price increases, with coking coal providing cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 87,000 for the main contract [3]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Different aluminum - related products show various trends, and corresponding price ranges and trading strategies are provided, such as focusing on the operating range and support levels [3]. - **Tin**: Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest - rate cut outlook may cause tin prices to fall in the short term. A strategy of buying on dips during the correction is recommended [3]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The improvement of macro - sentiment has led to the strengthening of the nickel and stainless - steel markets. Corresponding price ranges for the main contracts are provided [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The easing of macro - sentiment and the unexpected reduction of EIA inventory have driven the crude - oil price to recover, but the production - increase pressure from OPEC still limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. - **Urea**: The downstream demand support is still weak, and it is recommended to wait and see. The short - term resistance level is given at 1650 - 1670 yuan/ton [3]. - **PX, PTA, and Related Products**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Corresponding trading strategies such as paying attention to pressure levels and reducing positions on rallies are provided [3]. - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, and Other Products**: Different products have different supply - demand and cost - profit situations, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended, such as going short on rallies to narrow spreads [3]. - **Ethanol and Other Chemicals**: For different chemicals, various trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand relationships and price trends, such as selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies and conducting spread arbitrage [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oilseeds**: Different grains and oilseeds show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies such as going long on certain contracts and paying attention to support levels are provided [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The entry of second - fattening pigs has slowed down, and the pig price is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 12,000 [3]. - **Sugar, Cotton, and Other Products**: Different agricultural products have different price trends and trading opportunities, such as paying attention to support and pressure levels and conducting spread arbitrage [3]. Special and New Energy Sectors - **Special Commodities**: Glass, rubber, and industrial silicon show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies such as short - term long - position opportunities and paying attention to price ranges are provided [3]. - **New Energy Commodities**: The prices of polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by factors such as the expected establishment of platform companies and fundamental improvements, showing high - level oscillations and a rising price center [3].
广发早知道:汇总版-20251030
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 03:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: The market is influenced by various factors such as Sino - US relations, central bank policies, and economic data. For example, Sino - US leaders' meetings affect market sentiment, and central bank monetary policies impact interest rates and asset prices [2][4]. - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate decision and statements, precious metals are under short - term pressure, but there are long - term bullish factors [7][9]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The container shipping market shows a mixed situation with increasing capacity and different demand indicators in different regions. The futures market is expected to be volatile [12][13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper has long - term supply - demand contradictions supporting price increases, while aluminum is in a tight - balance situation [13][18][23]. - **Black Metals**: The steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors. The coal and coke markets are also influenced by production, consumption, and policy factors [44][47][50]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different market trends. For example, soybean meal has cost support, while the pig price is in a volatile state [56][59]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the main indexes opened higher and rose with increased trading volume. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts was repaired. The Sino - US leaders' meeting and relevant policies affected market sentiment. It is recommended to try to sell put options at the support level or construct a bullish call spread [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the yield of most major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined. The short - end bonds were supported by the expectation of the central bank's bond - buying restart, while the long - term bonds were suppressed. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy [5][6]. Precious Metals - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 BP as expected and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction. The precious metals market was affected by the Fed's statements and economic data. Gold prices fell after rising, and silver prices rose slightly. In the short term, precious metals are under pressure, but there are long - term bullish factors [7][9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - As of October 30, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes varied among different shipping companies. The container shipping index showed an upward trend. The global container capacity increased, and the demand indicators in different regions were different. The futures market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The spot price of copper decreased slightly, and the trading was light. The Fed cut interest rates, and the market focused on the Sino - US leaders' meeting. The supply of copper ore was tight, and the production of refined copper was expected to decline in October. The demand for copper had strong resilience. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 87000 [13][14][18]. Alumina - The spot price of alumina was stable with a slight decline in some regions. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2750 - 2950 [18][19][20]. Aluminum - The spot price of aluminum increased slightly. The supply was affected by the proportion of molten aluminum, and the demand was structurally different. The inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 20800 - 21400 [21][22][23]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy was stable. The supply was affected by raw materials and policies, and the demand was in a mild recovery. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 20200 - 20800 [23][24][25]. Zinc - The spot price of zinc increased slightly. The supply was expected to be limited in the future due to the decline in processing fees and by - product prices. The demand was stable, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be in an oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 21800 - 22800 [26][27][28]. Tin - The spot price of tin increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory situation was mixed. Due to the hawkish remarks on the December interest - rate cut, the short - term price may decline. It is recommended to buy on dips [29][30][33]. Nickel - The spot price of nickel decreased slightly. The production of refined nickel was high, and the demand in different sectors was different. The inventory increased. The price is expected to be in an interval oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 126000 [33][34][35]. Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel was stable. The raw material cost support was weakening, the supply was expected to increase, and the demand was not significantly boosted. The inventory decreased slowly. The price is expected to be in a weak - side oscillation, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12500 - 13000 [37][38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot price of lithium carbonate increased. The supply was increasing, and the demand was optimistic. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resistance levels at 83,000 and 85,000 [40][41][43]. Black Metals Steel - The spot price of steel increased, and the basis spread weakened. The cost and profit situation was complex, the supply was affected by production reduction and increase, and the demand was affected by domestic and foreign factors. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure [44][45][46]. Iron Ore - The spot and futures prices of iron ore increased. The supply situation was mixed with increasing global shipments and decreasing arrivals at ports. The demand was affected by steel production and profit. The inventory increased. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [47][48][49]. Coking Coal - The futures price of coking coal rose strongly. The spot price was strong, and the downstream had replenishment demand. The supply was affected by domestic production reduction and import situations. The demand was affected by iron and steel production. The inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract, with a reference interval of 1200 - 1350, and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [50][52][55]. Coke - The futures price of coke rose strongly. The spot price had a third - round price increase. The supply was affected by coking coal prices and production reduction. The demand was affected by steel production. The inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2601 contract, with a reference interval of 1700 - 1850, and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [53][54][55]. Agricultural Products Meal Products - The spot price of soybean meal was mixed, and the trading volume decreased. The supply and demand situation was affected by Sino - US relations, Brazilian soybean exports, and domestic inventory. The cost of domestic soybean imports was supported, and the trend of domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong [56][57][58]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs was stable with a slight increase. The profit of pig farming improved, and the average weight of pigs decreased. The second - round fattening enthusiasm slowed down, and the price was expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for the reverse spread arbitrage [59][60]. Corn - The spot price of corn was mixed. The inventory situation in ports showed different trends for different grains. The supply pressure was still there, and the price was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [61].