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广发期货《有色》日报-20250429
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 07:52
| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月29日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 260200 | 263000 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 800 | 1000 | -200 | -20.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 260700 | 263500 | -2800 | -1.06% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -171.99 | -169.00 | -2.99 | -1.77% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -10657.77 | -8039.09 | -2618.68 | -32.57% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8. ...
《农产品》日报-20250429
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 06:27
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Affected by concerns over production growth, it fell below 4,000 ringgit and is expected to test the support at 3,500 ringgit in the long - term. In China, Dalian palm oil futures adjusted downward, with short - term support expected around 8,000 - 8,100 yuan. It's advisable to take profits before the May Day holiday [1]. - Soybean oil: The USDA monthly report lowered the US soybean oil's ending inventory, but the positive news has been reflected in the price. US biodiesel consumption has slowed down. In China, spot prices mostly fell, with some regions rising due to higher basis quotes. Factory supply is tight, and inventory is low, keeping spot quotes strong in the short - term [1]. Meal - The US soybean market is in a shock range, with no weather - related speculation yet and continuous demand concerns. Brazil's supply pressure is being realized, and China's soybean arrivals are abundant. Short - term domestic soybean meal is affected by slow customs clearance, with low oil mill operation rates and falling inventories. The basis has been rising, but the market's willingness to buy at high prices is limited. In May, the basis is expected to decline. Wait for the market to stabilize before considering long - term long positions [3]. Live Pigs - The previous entry of second - fattening pigs pushed up prices, but terminal follow - up is difficult. Recently, second - fattening transactions have declined, and pig prices have fallen. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and demand is weak. Pig prices are expected to remain in a shock pattern. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,000 - 14,800 yuan. Pay attention to second - fattening pig sales around May Day [5]. Corn - The market has strong bullish sentiment, and spot prices are rising. The remaining grain at the grassroots level is almost gone, and traders in the Northeast are strongly holding prices. In North China, farmers are reluctant to sell. The downstream has rigid demand for restocking, but high port inventories limit the upside. In the long - term, supply tightening and recovering demand will support corn prices, but new - season wheat substitution may cause short - term corrections. Be cautious when chasing up prices [7]. White Sugar - Brazil's new sugar - crushing season is starting, and Thailand's production is expected to increase. The market expects an increase in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, which will put long - term pressure on prices. ICE raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. Rain in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent. The issuance of import licenses and import volume will dominate the market. Domestic supply and demand are loosening, and sugar prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock pattern [9]. Cotton - Cotton prices are mainly affected by macro factors. Pay attention to the development of the US - initiated tariff war. If tariffs are reduced in the short - term, it will be positive for the market; otherwise, it will be negative in the medium - term. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and inventories are slightly accumulating, but the pressure is not large. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate. Keep an eye on macro trends [11]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively abundant, and demand is decreasing. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying. Egg prices are expected to decline slightly this week and then stabilize [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On April 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,370 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.76%) from April 25. The futures price of Y2509 was 7,866 yuan, down 1.60%. The basis was - 128 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,035 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on April 28 was 9,080 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.63%) from April 25. The futures price of P2509 was 8,566 yuan, down 1.70%. The basis was 514 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil on April 28 was 9,400 yuan, down 150 yuan (- 1.57%) from April 25. The futures price of O1509 was 9,305 yuan, down 1.65%. The basis was 95 yuan, and the warehouse receipts decreased from 1,634 to 1,357 [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,500 yuan, down 300 yuan (- 7.89%) from the previous value. The futures price of M2509 was 2,985 yuan, down 1.52%. The basis was 515 yuan, down 33.03%. The warehouse receipts were 10,600, unchanged [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,580 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 2.27%) from the previous value. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,641 yuan, down 1.60%. The basis was - 61 yuan, down 38.64%. The warehouse receipts increased from 1,000 to 2,000 [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,950 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,225 yuan, down 0.28%. The basis was - 275 yuan, up 4.18%. The warehouse receipts increased by 13.37% to 10,981 [3]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: The main contract price was 790 yuan/ton, up 2.60%. The price of the live - pig 2507 contract was 13,485 yuan, down 0.41%; the 2509 contract was 14,130 yuan, down 0.14%. The 7 - 9 spread was 645 yuan, up 5.74%. The main - contract positions increased by 1.48% to 73,369, and the warehouse receipts were 705 [5]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, and other regions remained unchanged. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.56% to 147,162 heads. The weekly white - strip price dropped by 100.00% to 0.00 yuan, the weekly piglet price dropped by 3.79% to 26.94 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.51 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.29% to 128.94 kg, and the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 26.05% to 100 yuan [5]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2507 contract was 2,361 yuan, up 1.07%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,270 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis was - 91 yuan, down 19.74%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 19 yuan, unchanged. The positions increased by 3.12% to 2,305,598, and the warehouse receipts increased by 40.44% to 112,229 [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,721 yuan, up 0.44%. The Changchun spot price was 2,590 yuan, unchanged; the Weifang spot price was 2,760 yuan, unchanged. The basis was - 131 yuan, down 10.08%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 79 yuan, down 25.40%. The positions increased by 4.13% to 353,656, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,450 [7]. White Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the sugar 2505 contract was 6,189 yuan, up 0.23%; the 2509 contract was 5,977 yuan, up 0.05%. The ICE raw - sugar main contract was 17.83 cents/lb, down 1.82%. The 5 - 9 spread was 212 yuan, up 5.47%. The positions increased by 1.69% to 338,467 hands, the warehouse receipts were 28,756, unchanged, and the valid forecasts increased by 12.37% to 3,270 [9]. - **Spot**: The Nanning spot price was 6,220 yuan, up 0.16%; the Kunming spot price was 6,070 yuan, up 1.17%. The Nanning basis was 31 yuan, down 11.43%; the Kunming basis was - 119 yuan, up 32.00% [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the cotton 2505 contract was 12,675 yuan, down 0.39%; the 2509 contract was 12,950 yuan, down 0.31%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 67.56 cents/lb, down 1.66%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 275 yuan, down 3.77%. The positions decreased by 0.30% to 570,462 hands, the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.72% to 10,479, and the valid forecasts increased by 1.14% to 1,960 [11]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 13,998 yuan, unchanged; the CC Index of 3128B was 14,244 yuan, up 0.07%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,956 yuan, down 0.56%. The 3128B - 01 contract basis was 1,323 yuan, up 3.93%; the 3128B - 05 contract basis was 1,048 yuan, up 3.97%; the CC Index of 3128B - FC Index of M: 1% was 288 yuan, up 44.00% [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the egg 09 contract was 3,812 yuan/500KG, down 0.16%; the 05 contract was 3,133 yuan/500KG, down 0.98%. The 9 - 5 spread was 679 yuan, up 3.82%. The basis was 315 yuan, down 9.92% [14]. - **Related Prices**: The egg - laying chicken chick price was 4.25 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled - chicken price was 5.19 yuan/jin, up 2.77%; the egg - to - feed ratio was 2.69, up 1.51%; the breeding profit was - 6.03 yuan/feather, up 29.39% [14].
广发期货《金融》日报-20250429
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 03:55
| | 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | 2025年4月29日 | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 最新值 | 价差 品种 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | -51.02 | F期现价差 | -3.23 | 5.30% | 4.70% | | -23.23 | H期现价差 期现价差 | -2.42 | 9.40% | 5.40% | | -127.30 | IC期现价差 | 1.29 | 2.80% | 1.10% | | -148.06 | IM期现价差 | 4.85 | 85.00% | 4.00% | | -31.60 | 次月-当月 | 4.00 | 3.20% | 10.90% | | -90.00 | 李月-崇月 | 3.20 | 1.20% | 8.60% | | -114.80 | 元月-当月 | 1.60 | 1.20% | 14.40% | | -58.40 | F跨期价差 李月-次月 | -0.80 | ...
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250429
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 03:36
关注微信公众号 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月29日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 泉差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3230 | 10 | 83 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 63 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3330 | -30 | 143 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3060 | 3055 | 35 | 180 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3129 | 3101 | 28 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3157 | 3137 | 20 | 83 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3300 | -20 | 22 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3240 | 3240 | 0 | -18 | | | 热卷 ...
《有色》日报-20250429
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 03:13
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Supply side is gradually being repaired, but demand outlook is pessimistic. Maintain a bearish stance on tin price rebounds and focus on the pace of supply - side repair [1]. Zinc - In the short - term, pay attention to the TC increase and refined zinc expansion speed. In the long - term, adopt a short - selling strategy. The main price range is expected to be between 21,500 - 23,500 [3]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term price may fluctuate. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term price is under pressure near 20,000 yuan/ton, and may face downward pressure as it enters the off - season [5]. Copper - Copper fundamentals present a "strong reality + weak expectation" combination, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Focus on macro - driving signals, with the main pressure level at 77,000 - 78,000 [6]. Nickel - Macro situation is temporarily stable, but there is still uncertainty. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with the main reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 [8]. Stainless Steel - The price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the game between cost and demand. The main operating range is 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is bearish, with the price expected to remain weak. The main reference range is 65,000 - 70,000 [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price dropped to 260,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06% [1]. - SMM 1 tin premium dropped by 20% to 800 yuan/ton [1]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import loss increased to 10,657.77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.57% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 71.43% to - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - March tin ore imports decreased by 4.83% to 8,323 tons [1]. - SMM refined tin March output increased by 7.33% to 15,080 tons [1]. Inventory - SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 3.36% to 9,249 tons [1]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% [3]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import profit increased to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - March refined zinc output increased by 1.78% to 50.82 million tons [3]. Inventory - China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 7.63% to 8.59 million tons [3]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 19,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% [5]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import profit increased to 197 yuan/ton [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - March alumina output increased by 8.85% to 754.90 million tons [5]. Inventory - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 4.46% to 64.30 million tons [5]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 77,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74% [6]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import loss decreased to 355 yuan/ton [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - March electrolytic copper output increased by 6.04% to 112.21 million tons [6]. Inventory - Domestic social inventory decreased by 21.07% to 15.51 million tons [6]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 125,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% [8]. Ratio and Profit/Loss - Futures import loss increased to 4,178 yuan/ton [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 contracts increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton [8]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel output decreased by 5.69% to 28,320 tons [8]. - SHFE inventory decreased by 0.86% to 30,332 tons [8]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 13,050 yuan/ton [10]. Raw Material Price - 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price dropped by 0.15% to 668 yuan/nickel point [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2506 - 2507 contracts decreased by 175 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons [10]. Inventory - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.53% to 54.42 million tons [10]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 68,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% [12]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 contracts increased by 160 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - March lithium carbonate output increased by 23.44% to 79,065 tons [12]. Inventory - March lithium carbonate total inventory increased by 16.79% to 90,070 tons [12].
《能源化工》日报-20250429
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 03:07
聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 4月28日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 4月25日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月28日 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.01 | -1.5% | POY150/48价格 | 布伦特原油(6月) | 66.87 | 6395 | 6265 | 130 | 2.1% | 65.86 | 美元/桶 | -1.5% | WTI原油(6月) | 63.02 | -0.97 | FDY150/96价格 | 130 | 2.0% | 62.05 | 6580 | 6450 | | | -0.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 85 | CFR日本石脑 ...
《特殊商品》日报-20250429
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 03:07
| 十미 [2011 ] 1292号 | *业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月29日 | | | | 纪工非 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月28日 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 9550 | 9600 | -50 | -0.52% | | | 章美(通到SI5530星准) | 770 | 725 | 45 | 6.21% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10400 | 10450 | -50 | -0.48% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 820 | 775 | 45 | 5.81% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8800 | 8800 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 820 | 725 | ರಿನ | 13.10% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 4月28日 | 1月0日 | 演 佚 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 250 ...
广发期货全品种价差日报-20250429
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:44
| 89.30% | 280 | 硅铁 (SF506) | 5928 | 5648 | 5.00% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5950 | 2.50% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 146 | 49.30% | 5804 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 111 | 3.50% | 3240 | 53.60% | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3129 | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 43 | 37.60% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3280 | 3237 | 1.30% | | | | | | 87 | 798 | 63.20% | 711 | 12.30% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 1531 | 1562 | -2.00% ...
锡产业期现日报-20250425
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 05:15
| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月25日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 261000 | 258800 | 2200 | 0.85% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 1000 | 1000 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 261500 | 259300 | 2200 | 0.85% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -217.01 | -222.00 | 4.99 | 2.25% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -7203.46 | -6057.89 | -1145.57 | -18.91% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.28 | 8.31 | ...
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250425
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 05:09
本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 60 1 8 自糖产业期现日报 反期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月25日 刘珂 Z0016336 | | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月25日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王漆框 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | 4月24日 | 4月23日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8400 | 8300 | 100 | 1.20% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7892 | 7890 | 2 | 0.03% | | | 某差 | Y2509 | 508 | 410 | 08 | 23.90% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏4月 | 05 + 390 | 05 + 390 | 0 | - | | | 仓单 | | ...