Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The supply - demand gap of steel in October narrowed again. The production of five major steel products was lower than the apparent demand, and the apparent demand was close to the level of the same period last year with little inventory pressure. It is expected that the January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil will recover at the previous high. Hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure (rebar at 3200 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan). The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage has widened. Consider that coal production continues to be reduced, and the arbitrage order can be held [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3220 yuan/ton to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of hot - rolled coil increased from 3305 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products changed slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coil in different regions decreased, while the profit of some coal - related indicators increased. For example, the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, an increase of 1.0%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, an increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, an increase of 2.0% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous callback, the negative factors of iron ore have been fully digested. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices, with the range referring to 780 - 850. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of iron ore increased, and the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 52.2 yuan/ton to 50.1 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The global shipping volume of iron ore increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, an increase of 1.6%, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decrease of 19.5% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decrease of 7.1% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the port clearance volume decreased month - on - month. The inventory of beneficial ores of steel mills increased, and the inventory pressure increased [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Coke**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the range referring to 1700 - 1850. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, but pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with the range referring to 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, and pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts increased. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased from 1748 yuan/ton to 1801 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal increased from 1242 yuan/ton to 1302 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The production of coking coal decreased due to safety and environmental reasons in some areas. The production of coke also decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to decline, the coking plant's operation rate continued to decrease, but there was replenishment demand after the festival [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of coking plants and ports increased, while the inventory of steel mills decreased. The overall inventory of coke was slightly reduced, and the overall inventory of coking coal was slightly increased [6].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure, with concerns about production growth and export slowdown. There is a risk of further decline in prices, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In China, Dalian palm oil futures are oscillating, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize at the annual line of 8800 yuan. [1] - Soybean oil: Optimistic expectations of a Sino - US trade agreement may support soybean prices and drive up soybean oil prices from the cost side. In China, there is pressure on soybean meal supply in Guangxi, leading to an increase in the basis price of soybean oil. However, overall demand is weak, and the basis price is expected to remain stable. [1] Livestock (Pigs) - The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has slowed down, and the market supply is relatively loose. In the short term, there may still be support from secondary fattening, and the price decline is limited. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter will continue to increase in November and December, and there may be a new round of pressure around the Winter Solstice. It is advisable to wait for the spot price to stabilize before considering reverse arbitrage. [3] Meal Products - The improvement in Sino - US trade relations strongly supports US soybeans, but after the price rebounds above 1100 cents, there is profit - taking. Brazilian soybean exports remain high, and the discount provides support for domestic soybean import costs. Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, cost - side support is strengthening, and the domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong. [6] Corn and Corn Starch - In the Northeast, corn prices are generally stable due to factors such as temperature and policy support. In the North China region, farmers' selling enthusiasm changes with price fluctuations, and prices have partially rebounded. Overall, there is still selling pressure due to a bumper harvest, and prices are limited in their rebound. On the demand side, procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The corn futures market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term. [8] Sugar - Brazil's gasoline price cut fails to lower the sugar - making ratio, and the sugar supply outlook is loose, causing the raw sugar price to remain weak. With the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere's sugar - pressing season, the market is focusing on production prospects in India and Thailand. The domestic sugar price has limited downward momentum as it approaches the production cost, and it is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating pattern. [13] Cotton - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flow have improved, and there is a rigid demand for cotton. The rising cost of new cotton provides strong support, but there is also hedging pressure when the price rises. With the approaching end of seed cotton procurement, the marginal driving force is decreasing. Therefore, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [14] Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens, improved egg - laying rates, and increased egg weights. The demand may first increase and then decrease this week as traders replenish and then digest their inventories. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline slightly in the second half of the week. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 3200 for the main contract. [16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On October 29, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan, down 100 yuan (-1.18%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8132 yuan, down 50 yuan (-0.61%); the basis was 218 yuan, down 50 yuan (-18.66%); the number of warehouse receipts increased by 500 to 27644, a 1.84% increase. [1] - **Palm Oil**: On October 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8750 yuan, down 150 yuan (-1.69%); the futures price of P2601 was 8842 yuan, down 116 yuan (-1.29%); the basis was - 92 yuan, down 34 yuan (-58.62%); the import cost was 9273.7 yuan, down 163 yuan (-1.73%); the import profit was - 432 yuan, up 47 yuan (9.83%); the number of warehouse receipts decreased to 0 from 512. [1] - **Price Spreads**: The soybean oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 172 yuan, down 8 yuan (-4.44%); the palm oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was - 48 yuan, down 26 yuan (-118.18%); the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 340 yuan, down 38 yuan (-9.82%); the soybean - palm oil spot price spread was - 400 yuan, up 50 yuan (11.11%); the soybean - palm oil 2601 price spread was - 930 yuan, up 48 yuan (4.91%); the rapeseed - soybean oil spot price spread was 1450 yuan, down 100 yuan (-6.45%); the rapeseed - soybean oil 2601 price spread was 1393 yuan, down 155 yuan (-10.01%). [1] Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract was 365 yuan, up 75 yuan (25.86%); the price of LH2605 was 12010 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-0.41%); the price of LH2601 was 12185 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.21%); the 1 - 5 spread was 175 yuan, up 75 yuan (75.00%); the position of the main contract was 119788, up 2540 (2.17%); the number of warehouse receipts was 206, unchanged. [3] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in various regions increased, with increases ranging from 100 to 800 yuan/ton. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1215 to 162661 (-0.74%); the weekly white - striped pork price was 18.47 yuan, down 0.03 yuan (-0.16%); the weekly piglet price was 26 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price was 32.47 yuan, unchanged; the weekly average slaughter weight was 127.9 kg, down 0.3 kg (-0.27%); the weekly self - breeding profit was - 186 yuan/head, up 59 yuan (24.12%); the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 289 yuan/head, up 86.2 yuan (22.97%); the monthly inventory of reproductive sows was 40380000 heads, down 40000 (-0.10%). [3] Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2970 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 2969 yuan, down 6 yuan (-0.20%); the basis was 1 yuan, up 6 yuan (120.00%); the basis price was m2601 - 30, unchanged; the import crushing profit for Argentine December shipments was - 49 yuan, unchanged; the import crushing profit for Brazilian December shipments was - 240 yuan, down 33 yuan (-15.9%); the number of warehouse receipts was 42332, down 50 (-0.1%). [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2450 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2373 yuan, down 23 yuan (-0.96%); the basis was 77 yuan, up 33 yuan (75.00%); the import crushing profit for Canadian January shipments was 583 yuan, down 148 yuan (-20.25%); the number of warehouse receipts was 3915, down 135 (-3.33%). [6] - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3900 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4113 yuan, down 2 yuan (-0.05%); the basis was - 213 yuan, up 2 yuan (0.93%); the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract was 3671 yuan, down 12 yuan (-0.33%); the basis was 269 yuan, up 12 yuan (4.67%); the number of warehouse receipts was 7190, up 100 (1.41%). [6] - **Price Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 166 yuan, down 14 yuan (-7.78%); the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 43 yuan, down 15 yuan (-25.86%); the oil - meal ratio in the spot market was 2.81, down 0.034 (-1.18%); the oil - meal ratio of the main contract was 2.74, down 0.011 (-0.41%); the spot soybean - rapeseed meal price spread was 520 yuan, down 10 yuan (-1.89%); the 2601 soybean - rapeseed meal price spread was 596 yuan, up 17 yuan (2.94%). [6] Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 at Jinzhou Port was 2116 yuan, down 7 yuan (-0.33%); the basis was 17 yuan, down 13 yuan (-76.47%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 105 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.87%); the price of bulk grain at Shekou was 2280 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.88%); the north - south trade profit was 40 yuan, up 11 yuan (137.93%); the CIF price was 1974 yuan, down 4 yuan (-0.19%); the import profit was 306 yuan, up 24 yuan (8.38%); the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 552, down 192 (-25.81%); the position was 1774664, up 10545 (0.60%); the number of warehouse receipts was 63966, up 2000 (3.23%). [8] - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2427 yuan, up 3 yuan (0.12%); the spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2750 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 83 yuan, down 3 yuan (-3.49%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 113 yuan, up 4 yuan (3.42%); the 01 contract spread between starch and corn was 311 yuan, up 10 yuan (3.32%); the profit of Shandong starch was 120 yuan, down 8 yuan (-6.25%); the trading volume was 280362, down 3102 (-1.09%); the number of warehouse receipts was 12504, unchanged. [8] Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of SR2601 was 5494 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan (0.20%); the price of SR2605 was 5430 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.22%); the price of ICE raw sugar was 14.43 cents/pound, up 0.04 cents (0.28%); the 1 - 5 spread was 64 yuan, down 1 yuan (-1.54%); the position of the main contract was 391035, down 9001 (-2.25%); the number of warehouse receipts was 7625, down 70 (-0.91%); the number of valid forecasts was 586, unchanged. [13] - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming was unchanged. The Nanning basis was 320 yuan, down 12 yuan (-3.61%); the Kunming basis was 290 yuan, down 12 yuan (-3.97%); the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3990 yuan, down 25 yuan (-0.62%); the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 5052 yuan, down 33 yuan (-0.65%); the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning was - 1760 yuan, down 25 yuan (-1.44%); the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning was - 698 yuan, down 33 yuan (-4.96%). [13] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 1048 million tons, up 88 million tons (9.17%); the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.5 million tons, up 28.36 million tons (4.59%); the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 26.66 million tons, down 18.68 million tons (-41.20%); the cumulative national sugar sales rate was 93.9%, down 2.51 percentage points (-2.60%); the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 93.9%, up 4.3 percentage points (4.80%); the national industrial sugar inventory was 68.21 million tons, down 47.79 million tons (-41.20%); the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi was 44.21 million tons, up 17.07 million tons (62.90%); the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan was 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons (26.60%); sugar imports were 55 million tons, up 15 million tons (37.50%). [13] Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of CF2605 was 13625 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.41%); the price of CF2601 was 13620 yuan, up 55 yuan (0.41%); the price of ICE US cotton was 65.95 cents/pound, up 0.9 cents (1.38%); the 5 - 1 spread was 5 yuan, unchanged; the position of the main contract was 578488, down 596 (-0.10%); the number of warehouse receipts was 2460, down 11 (-0.45%); the number of valid forecasts was 1076, up 194 (22.00%). [14] - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton was 14650 yuan, down 1 yuan (-0.01%); the CC Index 3128B was 14840 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.07%); the FC Index M 1% was 13209 yuan, up 93 yuan (0.71%); the spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1025 yuan, down 56 yuan (-5.18%); the spread between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1030 yuan, down 56 yuan (-5.16%); the spread between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% was 1631 yuan, down 83 yuan (-4.84%). [14] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, up 69.85 million tons (68.4%); industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 3.62 million tons (-4.3%); imports were 10 million tons, up 3 million tons (42.9%); bonded area inventory was 28.8 million tons, down 0.1 million tons (-0.3%); the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry was 0.3, down 0.1 (-25.0%); the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, up 0.39 days (1.6%); the grey fabric inventory days were 31.43 days, up 0.31 days (1.0%); the cotton outbound shipping volume was

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there is still room for further monetary policy easing, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting in Busan, South Korea may bring changes to tariffs. - The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the bottom center of prices. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. It is expected that the domestic refined copper output in October may decline month - on - month. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released after the price drops. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. However, the supply pressure is still significant, and the demand is weak. The full - caliber inventory has increased by 64,000 tons this week. The cost support of bauxite is gradually weakening, and the profit margin of the industry has shrunk. It is expected that the alumina price will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. - The aluminum price has continued to be strong, and the spot market discount has gradually widened, indicating that high prices are suppressing actual purchases. The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20800 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the high - level oscillation of the aluminum price. The cost support is prominent, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up the procurement cost. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern. The inventory is in a slow de - stocking process. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. The demand is stable without exceeding expectations. The LME has a risk of a short squeeze, and the export window of zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price may be supported in the short term but will likely maintain an oscillation without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is at a low level. The demand is still weak, and although AI computing power and the photovoltaic industry have driven some tin consumption, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Powell's hawkish statement on the December interest - rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it may continue to be strong [11]. Nickel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the ore price is firm. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The downstream ternary still has inventory - building demand, but the medium - term supply may increase. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The chromium - iron market is weak and stable. The supply pressure of stainless steel is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures price has been relatively strong, with the main price center moving up. The production has been increasing, and the downstream demand is optimistic. The raw - material inventory is being depleted quickly, and the supply of concentrate is tight. It is expected that the short - term market will remain strong, and attention should be paid to whether the price can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 290 yuan/ton to 87,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.33%. - The SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 87,660 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 324.15 yuan/ton to 4299 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.15% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons or 4.31% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons or 26.50% compared with the previous month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. - The import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton to 2914 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons or 1.74% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 118,000 tons or 3.16% compared with the previous month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons or 7.48% compared with the previous month. - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons or 4.43% compared with the previous month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. - The import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton to 5088 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons or 4.17% compared with the previous month. - The refined zinc import volume was 227,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 11.61% compared with the previous month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60 dollars/ton to 40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a decrease of 1553 tons or 15.13% compared with the previous month. - The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 4880 tons or 31.71% compared with the previous month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 1.26% compared with the previous month. - The refined nickel import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 526 tons or 3.00% compared with the previous month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, an increase of 6900 tons or 0.38% compared with the previous month. - The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons or 0.36% compared with the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. - The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2020 tons or 2.37% compared with the previous month. - The lithium carbonate demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12,778 tons or 12.28% compared with the previous month [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall sentiment of the commodity market has strengthened, and the disk has rebounded recently. However, fundamentally, the weekly production is at a high level, and there is an obvious surplus compared to the current rigid demand. The inventory of manufacturers has been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the supply and demand will be further pressured. It is recommended to track macro fluctuations and the load adjustment of soda ash plants. The overall supply and demand pattern is still bearish, but the previous phased negative factors have basically been exhausted. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions, wait and see in the short term, and wait for the opportunity to short on the rebound [1]. - Recently, the production and sales have significantly warmed up, and the disk has stabilized and rebounded. After multiple price cuts, the middle and lower reaches have begun to replenish their inventories one after another, and the spot-futures traders have been actively purchasing. Due to the weakening of the basis, some spot-futures traders have no quotes. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuous performance of the spot market. Returning to the industry's supply and demand, although the deep-processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the low-e glass开工率 has continued to be low, showing no obvious characteristics of the peak season. In the long term, the real estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear the excess production capacity. It has been suggested to close out the previous short positions and pay attention to the spot market to capture short-term long opportunities [1]. Logs - The price of log futures contract 2601 is at a relatively low level. The obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices has formed a certain support for the import cost, limiting the downward space of the disk. However, there is an expectation of weakening fundamentals in the future. On the one hand, the import volume to the port will increase seasonally in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually emerge. On the other hand, the effect of the national subsidy policy has faded, and the furniture demand has weakened, resulting in insufficient support from the terminal demand and an increased risk of inventory accumulation at the port. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market's pessimistic expectation dominates. Overall, the log futures disk is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the follow-up progress of the China-US economic and trade consultations on the import cost expectation and the changes in the spot price [3]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, there has been a lot of rain in the producing areas until the end of the month, and the raw material prices have continued to rise. In the short term, the cost side strongly supports the rubber price. In the long term, there is still an expectation of increased supply. It is necessary to pay attention to the future weather conditions. On the demand side, most semi-steel tire enterprises have maintained stable production schedules. Currently, there are concentrated orders for snow tires with various specifications and models. To ensure the normal supply of each product, the production enthusiasm of semi-steel tire enterprises remains high. For all-steel tires, the enterprises' shipment performance has been stable, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased. There are plans to boost sales at the end of the month, and most enterprises are likely to maintain stable production schedules, with a slight fluctuation in the overall capacity utilization rate. In summary, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on the prospect of a December interest rate cut may put short-term pressure on the rubber price. It is necessary to pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the macro changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward space for the rubber price. If the raw material supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 and 15,500 [5]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has slightly decreased by 630 yuan/ton, a decline of about 1.2%. The futures price has risen driven by positive news such as the expected establishment of a platform company, but then declined with a reduction in positions. This may be because the arbitrage window opened after the price increase, leading some long positions to close out. The futures price closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, up 635 yuan/ton. It was reported that on October 28, 2025, Mr. Zhu Gongshan of GCL Group revealed in the CCTV program "Economic Half - Hour" that 17 major industry enterprises basically agreed to sign an agreement to form a consortium, which is beneficial for price increases. On the supply side, as the production capacity in the southwest region is gradually shut down, the output in November is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased, and the supply pressure has decreased, but the downstream procurement has decreased, resulting in an increase in inventory. It should be noted that the silicon wafer price has slightly decreased, and the sustainability of the polysilicon price increase needs to be monitored. Currently, polysilicon is mainly oscillating at a high level. On the one hand, it is necessary to pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and the production control situation. On the other hand, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side to support the increase in supply. After the significant increase in the futures price, the futures price is at a premium to the spot average price. For further significant increases, it is necessary to pay attention to the hedging space of upstream enterprises. It is also necessary to pay attention to whether there will be further implementation measures or policies [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized, and the futures price has risen driven by the news of anti - involution, closing at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply and demand, the weekly supply - side output has increased, while the demand - side output has decreased, which may lead to inventory accumulation and put pressure on the price. When the spot price is under pressure, it is necessary to note that the opening of the arbitrage window in East China may bring hedging opportunities. The coking coal price has risen under positive news such as supply contraction, and its impact on the industrial silicon futures price needs to be noted. Currently, it is still maintained that the increase in industrial silicon supply puts pressure on the price, but there is also cost support at the bottom. It is expected to mainly oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,500 and 9,500 [8]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged. The prices of glass contracts 2505 and 2509 increased by 1.27% and 1.04% respectively, and the prices of soda ash contracts 2505 and 2509 increased by 1.20%. The 05 basis of glass decreased by 12.03%, and the 05 basis of soda ash decreased by 51.61% [1]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 increased from 85.53% to 88.41%, and the weekly output increased from 74.57 million tons to 77.08 million tons. The float glass daily melting volume increased from 15.95 million tons to 16.13 million tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased from 59.355 million weight boxes to 62.824 million weight boxes, a rise of 5.84%. The soda ash factory inventory increased from 159.99 million tons to 165.98 million tons, a rise of 3.74%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased from 67.19 million tons to 69.91 million tons, a rise of 4.05% [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. Logs - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of log contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 increased slightly. The prices of various log specifications in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import theoretical cost remained unchanged, and the exchange rate remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 6.00%, and the number of ships at the port increased by 4.55%. The total inventory of national coniferous logs decreased by 2.74%, and the daily inventory withdrawal volume increased [3]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged, the basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 43.44%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 31.94%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber increased by 1.43%, and the FOB intermediate price of glue remained unchanged [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India in August changed, and the production of China increased. The开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in August increased, and the tire export volume in September decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The protected area inventory decreased by 1.20%, the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased by 6.28%, and the出库率 and入库率 of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 1.19%, and the N - type material basis decreased by 92.00%. The prices of N - type silicon wafers and some battery components remained unchanged, and the prices of some components increased slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly and monthly production of silicon wafers increased, and the monthly production of polysilicon decreased. The import and export volume of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed [7]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.98%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 6.70% [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis of different types of industrial silicon decreased. The monthly spreads of different contracts changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The national and regional production of industrial silicon changed, the开工率 of different regions changed, and the production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy changed. The industrial silicon export volume decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan changed, and the social inventory and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly [8].

Report Overview - The report consists of four parts: Polyolefin Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, Pure Benzene - Styrene Daily Report, Polyester Industry Chain Daily Report, and Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, covering price, inventory, and开工率 data of multiple chemical products, along with corresponding investment strategies [2][4][9][10] Polyolefin Industry Price Changes - L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all increased on October 29, with L2601 up 0.34%, L2509 up 0.06%, PP2601 up 0.42%, and PP2509 up 0.37% [2] - Some spot prices remained stable, while华北LDPE膜料现货 rose 0.15% [2] Inventory and开工率 - PE企业 inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, and社会库存 decreased slightly by 0.04% to 54.5 tons [2] - PP企业 inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.5 tons, and贸易商库存 decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [2] - PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, while下游加权开工率 increased by 1.85% to 45.8% [2] - PP装置开工率 decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, while粉料开工率 increased by 7.1% to 41.4%, and下游加权开工率 increased by 1.0% to 52.4% [2] Core View - PP supply recovery slowed due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand improved, and both inventories decreased. Consider long - term low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract and track sanctions' impact on refinery loads [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and WTI原油 increased slightly on October 29, while纯苯中石化华东挂牌价 remained unchanged [4] -苯乙烯华东现货 and related futures prices increased, with苯乙烯华东现货 up 0.6% [5] Inventory and开工率 -纯苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [7] -亚洲纯苯开工率 remained unchanged at 79.2%, while国内纯苯开工率 decreased by 3.6% to 72.7% [8] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and CFR日本石脑油 increased slightly on October 29 [9] - Most下游聚酯 product prices remained stable, with聚酯切片 price up 0.1% [9] Inventory and开工率 - MEG港口库存 decreased by 9.7% to 52.3 tons, and到港预期 increased significantly by 273.6% to 19.8 tons [9] -亚洲PX开工率 increased by 0.5% to 78.5%, and中国PX开工率 increased by 1.0% to 85.9% [9] Core View - PX supply contracted, and demand support strengthened. However, PX rebound space is limited. PTA,乙二醇,短纤, and瓶片 also have corresponding supply - demand situations and investment strategies [9] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price Changes -山东32%液碱折百价 and山东50%液碱折百价 remained unchanged on October 29, while华东电石法PVC市场价 increased by 0.4% [10] Inventory and开工率 -烧碱行业开工率 increased slightly by 0.1% to 85.6%, and烧碱山东样本开工率 increased by 3.2% to 86.6% [13] - PVC总开工率 decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [13] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2512 | 总持仓保持平稳 | 前二十席位变动不大 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2512 | 总持仓保持平稳 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2512 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信空头增仓超 2000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2512 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 中信多空头各减仓超 1000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 1,129.0 -1,692.0 6,254.0 -5,501.0 439.0 -762.0 9,663.0 -5,250.0 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 IF IH IC IM 主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - There is no explicit core view presented in the reports. The reports mainly present various data related to different financial products such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **IF**: The current - spot price difference is -15.24, with a change of 7.14 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 45.00% and 29.10% respectively. Different inter - period spreads show various values and changes, e.g., the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts is -10.80, with a change of 2.00 [1]. - **IH**: The current - spot price difference is 1.78, with a change of 0.60 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 66.30% and 66.90% respectively. Inter - period spreads also have their own values and changes, like the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts is -0.80, with a change of -1.20 [1]. - **IC**: The current - spot price difference is -90.97, with a change of 19.06 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 24.50% and 4.50% respectively. Inter - period spreads show significant variations, for example, the spread between the January and current - month contracts is -401.60, with a change of -0.80 [1]. - **IM**: The current - spot price difference is -122.72, with a change of 20.90 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 85.00% and 13.70% respectively. Inter - period spreads have specific values and changes, such as the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts is -73.20, with a change of 1.20 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 300, CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 50, and others are provided, along with their changes and percentiles. For example, the ratio of CSI 500/Shanghai Composite 50 is 2.4423, with a change of 0.0358, and the historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles are 94.20% and 75.20% respectively [1]. Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.9462, with a change of -0.0759, and the percentile since listing is 52.30%. TF basis is 1.9288, with a change of -0.0031, and the percentile is 56.20%. T basis is 2.0877, with a change of -0.0425, and the percentile is 71.40%. TL basis is 2.2535, with a change of 0.0762, and the percentile is 80.90% [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads for each type of treasury bond futures are presented. For example, for TS, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts is 0.0860, with no change from the previous day, and the percentile is 43.20% [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different types of treasury bond futures are given. For example, the spread between TS and TF is -3.4940, with a change of -0.0650, and the percentile is 8.70% [3]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Futures Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 910.88 on October 29, up 1.05% from the previous day. AG2512 contract closed at 11338, up 2.62%. In the foreign market, COMEX gold closed at 3941.70, down 0.67%, and COMEX silver closed at 47.28, up 0.29% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3929.66, down 0.56%, and London silver was at 47.49, up 0.98%. Shanghai Gold TD was at 912.42, up 1.75%, and Shanghai Silver TD was at 11351, up 3.23% [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Basis values and their changes, as well as ratios like COMEX gold/silver and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, are provided. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures is 1.54, with a change of 6.23, and the historical 1 - year percentile is 98.70% [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Interest rates of US Treasury bonds, exchange rates, and inventories of precious metals in different exchanges and ETF holdings are presented. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield is 4.08%, up 2.3% from the previous day [5]. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes for shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different companies are provided. For example, MAERSK's price is 2445 dollars/FEU, up 2.09% from the previous day, while CMA CGM's price is 2788 dollars/FEU, down 4.06% [6]. - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 1312.71, up 15.11% from October 20. Other indexes like SCFI composite index and its sub - indexes for different routes also show their values and changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided. For example, the price of EC2602 is 1606.0, up 3.70% from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract (EC2512) is -208.6, down 23.21% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export balances, and overseas economic indicators are presented. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged at 3330.07 million IFU, and the port on - time rate in Shanghai in September is 42.77%, up 133.59% from August [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US trade talks in Malaysia and the Fourth Plenary Session communique have re - boosted market risk appetite. There are potential trading opportunities in various futures markets, but each market has its own influencing factors and trends [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Stock index futures are in a shrinking and volatile state with sector rotation. One can try to lightly sell put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads to capture potential rebounds [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the positive news of restarting treasury bond trading is realized, treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. One can go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rise of IRR [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Market risk preference is rising, and funds are flowing out rapidly. After a sharp decline, precious metals rebounded. One can buy at low levels below $4000 after the price of gold adjusts and wait for the Fed's decision. Silver may be under pressure if gold falls [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Tangshan's production restrictions support the strengthening of steel prices. Pay attention to the previous high pressure for long positions and hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments and arrivals have declined, port stocks have increased, and molten iron has slightly decreased. Iron ore continues to rebound. One can go long on dips and conduct positive arbitrage for the 1 - 5 contracts [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of local coal is running strongly, downstream replenishment demand has recovered, and the price of Mongolian coal has risen. One can go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase of mainstream coke enterprises has been officially implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price increases. One can go long on coke 2601 on dips and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Copper prices are running at a high level. Pay attention to the marginal change in demand. The main contract reference range is 87,000 - 89,000 [3]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: Spot trading is active, but the short - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. The main contract runs in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment dominates the market, and the high - level spot discount has widened. The main contract reference range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market follows the decline of aluminum prices, but the spot price is firm. The main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze on LME zinc combined with macro - positives has led to a slight strengthening of zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are running strongly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating weakly, and the weakening macro - situation exerts some pressure. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating weakly, and the cost support is still weak. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The fading of geopolitical risk premium restricts the rebound of oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices will move in a range. It is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. - **Urea**: The daily production is expected to gradually increase, the supply of goods is sufficient, and the short - term improvement of the market is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. For long positions, pay attention to the pressure levels and reduce positions on rallies [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The operation is similar to that of PTA, and one can shrink the processing margin on rallies [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, the cost side rebounds, and the short - term processing margin of bottle chips will decline. The operation is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Ethanol (EG)**: The upward driving force of EG has weakened, and the supply - demand structure in the far - month is still weak. One can sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 contracts [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. Short positions can stop loss and leave the market [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. Wait for the opportunity to go short on rebounds [3]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price driving force is limited. Benzene 2603 will follow the oscillation of styrene and oil prices in the short - term. Styrene prices may be under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost side continues to weaken, dragging BR down. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE and PP**: The overall trading is poor, and the basis remains. Pay attention to the inflection point of inventory reduction for LLDPE. For PP, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The port market continues to weaken, and the inland market remains stable with okay trading. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 3 - 5 spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Meal**: Sino - US relations are warming, and near - month soybeans have cost support. One can go long on the 2601 contract [3]. - **Pig**: The combination of second - fattening and end - of - month supply reduction makes pig prices run strongly. Exit and wait and see for the 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market is oscillating weakly. Pay attention to the support around 2,100 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil has broken through the support level, and domestic palm oil follows the decline. The main contract of palm oil may test the support of 8,900 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is relatively loose, and the overall trend is bearish. It oscillates at the bottom around 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified. It oscillates in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The overall trend is still bearish. Pay attention to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity and short - term short - selling opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stand firm at 9,300 points [3]. - **Juice**: The market sentiment has eased, and the market is oscillating. Pay attention to the support of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is running strongly driven by large - scale production cuts of enterprises and the glass market. Wait and see for now and wait for the opportunity to go short on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The production and sales have improved, and the market has stabilized and rebounded. Pay attention to the spot market to capture short - term long - buying opportunities [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price continues to rebound, and the rubber price continues to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon oscillates and declines. The price oscillates in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon oscillates and declines. The price oscillates at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a relatively strong trend with a gap - up and low - close on the day. The fundamental improvement is continuously realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices showed mixed trends, with some spot prices rising. The 1 - month contract for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to repair at previous highs. Hold long positions and pay attention to the pressure at previous highs (rebar at 3200 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan/ton). The long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil arbitrage has widened, and considering coal production cuts, the arbitrage order can be held [1] Iron Ore Industry - After the previous correction, the negative factors for iron ore have been fully digested. Unilaterally, go long on the iron ore 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 770 - 830. It is recommended to conduct a long 1 - month and short 5 - month iron ore positive spread arbitrage [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, short - term adjustments do not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. Speculatively, go long on the coke 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850. For coking coal, also go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1350. The long coking coal and short coke arbitrage can be carried out, but be aware of large price fluctuations [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight increases, while some futures contracts had small price changes [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices had different trends. The costs of different types of rebar production and the profits of hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.4% to 239 thousand tons, while the output of five major steel products increased by 1.0% to 865.3 thousand tons. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production also increased [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.7% to 1554.9 thousand tons, and the rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1] Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials transaction volume decreased by 16.1%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 2.0%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil also increased [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, and the basis and spreads of futures contracts changed [4] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 19.5% to 2029.1 thousand tons, while the global weekly shipping volume increased by 1.6% to 3388.4 thousand tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 10.6% to 11632.6 thousand tons [4] Demand - The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4%, the weekly average port clearance volume decreased by 7.1%, and the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.8% to 14311.15 thousand tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis also changed. The coking profit decreased [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and futures contracts changed, and the basis increased. The sample coal mine profit increased by 6.0% [6] Supply - Coke production decreased, and coking coal production from sample mines also decreased [6] Demand - The pig iron output decreased, and the demand for coking coal, represented by coke production, also decreased [6] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory remained stable overall, with different trends in different sectors. Coking coal inventory increased slightly overall, with different trends in different sectors [6]

Report Summary Core View The report presents the spot and futures prices, basis, historical quantiles, and basis rates of various commodities on October 29, 2025, including ferrosilicon, ferromanganese, steel products, iron ore, coal, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, as well as the basis of stock index futures and Treasury bond futures [1]. Summary by Commodity Category Metals - **Ferrous Metals**: For ferrosilicon (SF601), the futures price is 5564, the spot price is 5790, the basis is 226, and the historical quantile is 60.50%. For ferromanganese (SM601), the futures price is 5790, and the historical quantile is 54.30%. Steel products like rebar (RB2601) have a futures price of 3220, a spot price of 3091, a basis of - 129, and a historical quantile of 58.20%. Iron ore (12601) has a futures price of 856, a spot price of 793, a basis of - 63, and a historical quantile of 50.50%. Coke (J2601) has a futures price of 1689, and the historical quantile of its basis rate is 33.28%. Coking coal (JM2601) has a futures price of 1334, a spot price of 1242, a basis of 92, and a historical quantile of 48.90% [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper (CU2512) has a futures price of 86980, a spot price of 87905, a basis of 925, and a historical quantile of 97.91%. Aluminum (AL2512) has a futures price of 21140, a spot price of 21160, a basis of 20, and a historical quantile of 63.54%. Zinc (ZN2512) has a futures price of 22310, a spot price of 22200, a basis of - 110, and a historical quantile of 31.04%. Tin (SN2512) has a futures price of 284300, a spot price of 283170, a basis of - 1130, and a historical quantile of 81.04%. Nickel (NISE12) has a futures price of 121500, a spot price of 120560, a basis of - 940, and the historical quantile of its basis rate is 90.62%. Stainless steel (SS2512) has a futures price of 13120, a spot price of 12750, a basis of - 370, and the historical quantile of its basis rate is 73.60%. Industrial silicon (SI2601) has a futures price of 9350, a spot price of 8952, a basis of - 398, and a historical quantile of 28.34% [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2512) has a futures price of 896.7, a spot price of 901.4, a basis of 4.7, and a historical quantile of 6.70%. Silver (AG2512) has a futures price of 10996.0, a spot price of 11049.0, a basis of 53.0, and a historical quantile of 6.10% [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2601) has a futures price of 2975.0, a spot price of 2930, a basis of - 45.0, and a historical quantile of 29.80%. Soybean oil (V2601) has a futures price of 8182.0, a spot price of 8320, a basis of 138.0, and a historical quantile of 27.60%. Palm oil (P2601) has a futures price of 8958.0, a spot price of 8900, a basis of - 58.0, and a historical quantile of 10.40%. Rapeseed meal (RM601) has a futures price of 2396.0, a spot price of 2500, a basis of 104.0, and a historical quantile of 65.20%. Rapeseed oil (Oleo1) has a futures price of 9730.0, a spot price of 10070, a basis of 340.0, and a historical quantile of 83.10%. Corn (C2601) has a futures price of 2123.0, a spot price of 2140, a basis of 17.0, and a historical quantile of 50.90%. Corn starch (CS2601) has a futures price of 2550, a spot price of 2424.0, a basis of - 126.0, and a historical quantile of 64.00%. Live pigs (LH2601) have a futures price of 12160.0, a spot price of 12450, a basis of 290.0, and a historical quantile of 50.90%. Eggs (JD2512) have a futures price of 2960, a spot price of 3099.0, a basis of - 139.0, and a historical quantile of 23.00%. Cotton (CF601) has a futures price of 13565.0, a spot price of 14651, a basis of 1086.0, and a historical quantile of 70.00%. White sugar (SR601) has a futures price of 5483.0, a spot price of 5780, a basis of 297.0, and a historical quantile of 48.40%. Apples (AP601) have a futures price of 8840, a spot price of 9238.0, a basis of 398.0, and a historical quantile of 6.00%. Red dates (CJ601) have a futures price of 9600, a spot price of 10445.0, a basis of - 845.0, and a historical quantile of 56.40% [1]. Energy Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX601) has a futures price of 6618.0, a spot price of 6662.0, a basis of 44.0, and a historical quantile of 12.20%. PTA (TA601) has a futures price of 4535.0, a spot price of 4614.0, a basis of 79.0, and a historical quantile of 20.00%. Ethylene glycol (EG2601) has a futures price of 4069.0, a spot price of 4140.0, a basis of 71.0, and a historical quantile of 75.00%. Polyester staple fiber (PFS12) has a futures price of 6250.0, a spot price of 6360.0, a basis of 110.0, and a historical quantile of 74.30%. Styrene (EB2512) has a futures price of 6466.0, a spot price of 6455.0, a basis of - 11.0, and a historical quantile of 75.30%. Methanol (MA601) has a futures price of 2207.0, a spot price of 2241.0, a basis of 34.0, and a historical quantile of 54.20%. Urea (UR601) has a futures price of 1610.0, a spot price of 1635.0, a basis of 25.0, and a historical quantile of 5.40%. LLDPE (L2601) has a futures price of 6985.0, a spot price of 7025.0, a basis of 40.0, and a historical quantile of 57.20%. PP (PP2601) has a futures price of 6615.0, a spot price of 6657.0, a basis of 42.0, and a historical quantile of 48.60%. PVC (V2601) has a futures price of 4620.0, a spot price of 4716.0, a basis of 96.0, and a historical quantile of 33.10%. Caustic soda (SH601) has a futures price of 2341.0, a spot price of 2500.0, a basis of 159.0, and a historical quantile of 70.30%. LPG (PG2512) has a futures price of 4266.0, a spot price of 4398.0, a basis of 132.0, and a historical quantile of 48.00%. Asphalt (BU2601) has a futures price of 3279.0, a spot price of 3320.0, a basis of 41.0, and a historical quantile of 93.40%. Butadiene rubber (BR2512) has a futures price of 10805.0, a spot price of 11200.0, a basis of 395.0, and a historical quantile of 61.90%. Float glass (FG601) has a futures price of 1040.0, a spot price of 1113.0, a basis of 73.0, and a historical quantile of 46.63%. Soda ash (SA601) has a futures price of 1239.0, a spot price of 1189.0, a basis of - 50.0, and a historical quantile of 21.21%. Natural rubber (RU2601) has a futures price of 15360.0, a spot price of 14750.0, a basis of - 610.0, and a historical quantile of 64.08% [1]. Financial Futures - IF2512.CFE has a futures price of 4669.6, a spot price of 4692.0, a basis of 22.4, and a historical quantile of 20.40%. IH2512.CFE has a futures price of 3050.4, a spot price of 3051.6, a basis of 1.2, and a historical quantile of 63.50%. IC2512.CFE has a futures price of 7341.0, a spot price of 7231.0, a basis of - 110.0, and a historical quantile of 2.30%. IM2512.CFE has a futures price of 7335.6, a spot price of 7479.2, a basis of 143.6, and a historical quantile of - 0.02%. 2 - year Treasury bond (TS2512) has a futures price of 102.37, a conversion factor of 0.9765, and a historical quantile of 20.00%. 5 - year Treasury bond (TF2512) has a futures price of 105.72, a conversion factor of 0.9405, and a historical quantile of 21.80%. 10 - year Treasury bond (T2512) has a futures price of 108.10, a conversion factor of 0.9264, and a historical quantile of 21.10%. 30 - year Treasury bond (TL2512) has a futures price of 114.48, a conversion factor of 1.1271, and a historical quantile of 37.50% [1].