能源化工丨日报 2025 年 03 月 11 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 美元汇率下跌，油价受支撑 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格上涨 周二(3 月 11 日)纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油 2025 年 4 月期货结算价每桶 66.25 美元，比前一交易日上涨 0.22 美元，涨 幅 0.33%，交易区间 65.29-67.17 美元；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油 2025 年 5 月期货结算价每桶 69.56 美元，比前一交易日上涨 0.28 美元， 涨幅 0.40%，交易区间 68.63-70.44 美元。 二、美元指数连续下跌 美元指数周二跌至四个月低点，美元汇率走软使得使用其他货币 的买家购买以美元计价的石油期货更便宜。加拿大安大略省对输往美 国的电力征收 25%的附加费后，美国将计划对从加拿大进口的所有钢 铁和铝产品征收的关税提高了一倍至50%。美元指数连续第七日下跌， 周二该指数跌至 103.27 点，跌幅 0.57%。 三、美国对加拿大、墨西哥延迟加征关税 请务必阅读正文之 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong bullish outlook for the stock index futures market in the short to medium term [1][2]. Core Insights - The domestic economy and policy expectations show improvement, with January social financing achieving an 8.0% year-on-year growth despite a high base. The government's proactive issuance of bonds and loans supports this trend [1]. - The sentiment around technology and thematic sectors is at historical highs, driven by the increasing penetration of AI across industries, suggesting that AI will continue to be a focal point for the market [1]. - Financial data for January indicates a record high in credit and social financing, reflecting the effectiveness of the government's "wide credit" policy [2][3]. - The copper market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with domestic production gradually increasing as companies resume operations post-holiday [4][5]. - The industrial silicon market is facing an oversupply situation, with a forecasted supply exceeding demand by approximately 30,000 tons in January 2025 [6]. - The polysilicon market is nearing a supply-demand balance, with expectations of a shift from inventory accumulation to depletion [7][8]. - The lithium carbonate market is under pressure from declining prices and increasing production, with a forecasted total domestic output of 680,000 tons in 2024, a 47% year-on-year increase [10][11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Futures and Options - The report suggests a bullish strategy for stock index futures, with a focus on the IM2502 long position and IF2502 short position for hedging [1]. Government Bonds - The report indicates a weak outlook for government bonds, with a recommendation to exit long positions and consider shorting at high points due to tightening liquidity conditions [2][3]. Commodity Futures and Options - The copper market is expected to fluctuate between 76,300 and 79,000, with a medium-term range of 66,000 to 90,000, driven by supply constraints and varying demand across regions [4][5]. - Industrial silicon is projected to trade between 10,600 and 10,900, with a broader range of 10,000 to 12,000, reflecting an oversupply situation [6]. - Polysilicon is anticipated to experience weak fluctuations, with a range of 43,500 to 44,500, as the market approaches a balance point [7][8]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade within a narrow range of 76,000 to 78,000, with a medium-term range of 65,000 to 85,000, influenced by production costs and market dynamics [10][11][12].