蛋白粕丨月报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 期货从业资格证号： F03113318 周度数据，新作大豆优良率较高，截至 6 月 29 日，大豆出苗率 94%，上期值 90%，去年同期 94%，五年均值 95%。开花率 17%，上期 值 8%，去年同期 18%，五年均值 16%。结荚率 3%，去年同期 3%，五年 均值 2%。优良率 66%，上期值 66%，去年同期 67%。 期货投资咨询证书： 阿根廷大豆收获完毕，农户们"抢售"赶在 7 月 1 日关税优惠到 期前甩卖大豆类产品。6 月 26 日国内多家大型贸易商采购阿根廷共 3 万吨豆粕，带动内外盘下跌。这是自 2019 年中阿协议签署后首次。 Z0018777 2025 年 7 月 1 日 美豆种植面积未作调整，关注产区天气与后续发船 近期国内外蛋白粕期货行情回顾及分析： （一）豆粕：6 月最后一周，内外盘粕类油脂，走势显著分化 最新要点：USDA 种植面积报告与季末库存报告；油粕驱动分化 6 月底 USDA 发布两份季度报告，预计 2025 年大豆播种面积 8340 万英亩，符合预期，相比 6 月 WASDE 报调整很 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the financial futures and options market, both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are expected to be strong in the short and medium - term. In the commodity futures and options market, different metals and energy materials, as well as agricultural products, have their own unique supply - demand and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [1] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] - **Core logic**: Positive sentiment in the equity market due to Sino - US communication and policy support, and the potential rise of the science and technology sector [1] Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [2] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [2] - **Reference strategy**: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [3] - **Core logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy expectations, and the central bank's continued net investment affects the capital market [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials - **Copper** - **Day - to - day view**: Price range from 79,200 to 81,000 [4] - **Medium - term view**: Price range from 60,000 to 90,000 [4] - **Reference strategy**: Adopt an oscillating and slightly upward trading idea, buy call options [4] - **Core logic**: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US, supply shortages, and changes in international demand and inventory levels affect copper prices [4] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 8,000 to 8,100 [5] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure, price range from 7,000 to 9,000 [5] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short SI2508 - C - 9000 until expiration, short futures on rallies [5] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [5] - **Polysilicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 33,000 to 35,000 [7] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a low level, price range from 28,000 to 38,000 [7] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short PS2508 - C - 45000 until expiration [7] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [7] - **Aluminum** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 20,400 to 20,700 [9] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a high level, price range from 19,200 to 21,000 [9] - **Reference strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [9] - **Core logic**: Limited supply increase, low inventory, good performance in the automotive market, and the overall rise of non - ferrous metals [9] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 63,000 to 65,000 [11] - **Medium - term view**: Cost support weakens, prices decline steadily, price range from 56,000 to 68,000 [11] - **Reference strategy**: Short futures on rallies, sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core logic**: Low spot prices, large supply, and high inventory levels [11] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Day - to - day view**: Downward pressure weakens [14] - **Medium - term view**: Stop falling and stabilize [14] - **Reference strategy**: Exit the strategy of selling call options and buying put options on RB2510, sell out - of - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 [14] - **Core logic**: Potential relief of raw material inventory pressure and changes in supply and demand [14] Livestock, Poultry, and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias [17] - **Medium - term view**: Rebound temporarily and then maintain a weak trend [17] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [17] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply and demand, with supply remaining abundant and demand weak [17] - **Sugar** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate weakly [19] - **Medium - term view**: Rise first and then fall [19] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [19] - **Core logic**: Global supply surplus expectations and domestic supply - demand and import situations [19] - **Protein Meal** - **Day - to - day view**: Soybean meal 2509 oscillates in the range of [2,900, 3,000] [22] - **Medium - term view**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2,900, 3,100] [22] - **Reference strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850 [22] - **Core logic**: Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean and Canadian rapeseed growing areas, and changes in international and domestic soybean and rapeseed markets [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate within a range [25] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure [25] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short out - of - the - money call options on PG2508 [25] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply, demand, and cost factors [25] - **PVC** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [28] - **Medium - term view**: Limited upside potential [28] - **Reference strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on PVC [28] - **Core logic**: Changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory levels [28]

Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Views - For aluminum, the short - term view is that it will run strongly within the range of 20400 - 20700, and the medium - term view is that it will run at a high level within the range of 19200 - 21000. The recommended strategy is to sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [1]. - For steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), the short - term view is that steel prices will run weakly, and the medium - term view is that there is still a downward driving force for steel prices. The recommended strategies are to sell the out - of - the - money call options of rebar RB2510 (exercise price 3150 - 3450) and buy the at - the - money put options of rebar RB2510 [4]. Summary by Categories Aluminum - The supply side provides strong support for aluminum prices. In 2017, the supply - side reform set the upper limit of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity at 45 million tons. As of May 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 44.139 million tons, with very limited room for capacity increase [1]. - The current inventory is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years, which is favorable for aluminum prices. As of June 23, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in 5 regions was 465,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from last week, while the inventory in the same period last year was 764,000 tons [1]. - The good performance of the automobile market is also favorable for aluminum prices. From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.826 million and 12.748 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9% [1]. - The general rise of non - ferrous metals boosts aluminum prices [2]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The overall pressure on the raw material inventory of steel products is still large. This week, the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 139.6802 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 873,800 tons. The low - grade ore in the tradable inventory of ports is at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years. The price of iron ore is expected to be further pressured under the background of increased supply and decreased demand. The inventory of clean coal in sample mines and coal - washing plants is at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the downward pressure on the price of coal and coke still exists. The inventory pressure of furnace materials will be further transformed into incremental supply of finished steel products [4]. - The downstream consumption of steel products is gradually entering the off - season. The demand for building materials is weakening and is lower than in previous years. The overall consumption of the five major steel products is also weaker than in previous years (year - on - year decrease of 2.06%). With the easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel, the driving force for the increase in the price of black - series commodities pushed up by the rise in energy prices has been temporarily alleviated, and there is no strong driving force for a sharp increase in short - term steel prices [5].

Report Overview - **Date**: June 26, 2025 - **Report Type**: Main Variety Strategy Breakfast - **Covered Industries**: Commodity Futures and Options (including Metal and New Energy Materials, Livestock and Soft Commodities, Energy and Chemicals) Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: 78300 - 79300 [1] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [1] Core View - The Fed's expected rate cut, declining scrap copper supply, tight supply - demand of copper concentrates, increased US trade demand, and continuous destocking of domestic inventories will boost copper prices [4] Summary by Section - **Macro**: Most Fed officials believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates later this year [1] - **Supply**: In May, total scrap copper imports decreased by 9.55% month - on - month and 6.63% year - on - year. The proportion of scrap copper imports from the US will fall below 5% in June. Spot supply in the Guangdong market increased, while that in the North China market was normal [1] - **Demand**: In May, the total export volume of refined copper rods increased by 17.57% month - on - month and 34% year - on - year. However, terminal demand weakened in June. Many recycled copper rod enterprises had insufficient orders, and downstream copper factories in Chongqing almost stopped purchasing [2] - **Inventory**: On June 25, LME copper inventory decreased by 1200 tons to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21470 tons [2] - **Strategy**: Adopt an operation idea of sideways with a bullish bias and sell deep out - of - the - money put options [1] Livestock and Soft Commodities - Protein Meal Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Soybean meal 2509 will oscillate weakly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Soybean meal 2509 will build a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [5] Core View - Domestic soybean meal is influenced by multiple factors. After recent declines fully digesting negative factors, it may build a phased bottom around 3000 points. The "sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400" strategy can be continued [5][7] Summary by Section - **Weather and Geopolitics**: In late June, soybean meal 2509 entered a volatile market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed producing areas. The easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has affected the price of soybean meal [5] - **International Soybeans**: As of the week ending June 22, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. Forecasts show sufficient import volumes of soybeans from June to August. Anec raised Brazil's soybean export forecast for June to 14.99 million tons [6] - **Rapeseed**: Canadian new - crop rapeseed is planted relatively fast but is experiencing mild drought. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised the export volume of old - crop rapeseed by 500,000 tons to 9 million tons [6] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold the position of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [5] Energy and Chemicals - Petroleum Asphalt Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Weak sideways movement [8] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [9] Core View - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, and asphalt futures prices have also followed. In the long term, the asphalt fundamentals are relatively weak in summer, and the asphalt crack spread will continue to weaken [11] Summary by Section - **Supply**: Local refineries' losses in asphalt production have decreased, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate and production have increased. It is expected that they will continue to rise before the peak season [9] - **Demand**: High prices in the north and rainfall in the south have restricted demand. Some downstream enterprises have pre - stocking demand. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises has increased significantly. Asphalt plant inventories have continued to decline, and the decline in social inventories has slowed down [10] - **Cost**: In the short term, oil prices have fallen due to the extrusion of geopolitical premiums. In the long term, oil prices are still under pressure [10] - **Strategy**: Short fuel oil and long asphalt spread [9]

Report Summary Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Oscillating with an upward bias; Medium - term: Bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Oscillating slightly weaker; Medium - term: Bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Short - term: Steel prices to run weakly; Medium - term: Downward pressure on steel prices persists [4] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas geopolitical tensions ease, and domestic policies are expected to boost the A - share market [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Geopolitical easing pressures safe - haven assets, and domestic policies are expected to be more accommodative [2][3] - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: High raw material inventory and weak downstream demand lead to downward pressure on steel prices [4][5] Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and long IM2507 contracts [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the easing of geopolitical tensions boosts risk sentiment; domestically, policies are expected to boost domestic demand [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Reference Strategy**: Reduce long positions in T2509 or TL2509 trading accounts, and hold long positions in allocation accounts [2] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical easing pressures safe - haven assets; the central bank increases net investment to stabilize funds; domestic policies are expected to be more accommodative [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Reference Strategy**: Re - enter the strategy of selling RB2510 call options (exercise price 3150 - 3450) or buy RB2510 at - the - money put options [4][6] - **Core Logic**: High raw material inventory and weak downstream demand, especially in the construction season, and the easing of geopolitical tensions reduces the upward drive of steel prices [4][5]

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 24 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 伊以将达成停火协议，油价大幅下挫 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格暴跌 6 月 23 日（周一），国际油价收盘大幅下跌，纽约商品期货交易 所 WTI 8 月原油即期合约收盘下跌 5.33 美元/桶，至 68.51 美元/桶， 跌幅 7.22%。洲际交易所布伦特 8 月原油即期合约收盘下跌 5.53 美元 /桶，至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。24 日亚洲时段早盘 WTI、Brent 原油继续下行。 二、伊朗袭击美国驻卡塔尔军事基地 伊朗实施报复，导弹打击美国驻卡塔尔空军基地，但报复的严重 性低于市场预期。特朗普回应伊朗报复：感谢伊朗提前通知。美国总 统特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致，将实现全面停火。 三、美国商业原油库存下降 6 月 23 日，一项初步调查结果显示，上周美国原油库存可能下降， 而汽油库存料持平、馏分油库存可能增加。分析机构预计，截至 6 月 20 日当周美国原油库存减少约 20 万桶。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term pig price may have a small - scale rebound, but in the long - term, it will maintain a weak trend due to the supply - demand imbalance [1][2]. - The sugar price will stop falling and rebound in the short - term but will be in a weak oscillation in the medium - to - long - term as the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus [3][4]. - The crude oil price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but will decline in the long - term as the supply increases and demand is restricted [5][7]. - PVC will run strongly in the short - term due to the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict, but its price may face pressure in the long - term as its supply - demand fundamentals are not strong [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig - **Supply**: As of June 20, the average weight of national pig slaughter was 123.78kg, down 0.18kg from the previous week. Due to policy and temperature factors, scale enterprises are accelerating the weight reduction of pigs [1]. - **Demand**: On June 20, the slaughtering rate was 28.13%, slightly up from the previous week. However, consumer demand for pork is low in summer, limiting the further increase of the slaughtering rate [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a continued rise, the medium - term view is a weak operation after a phased rebound, and the recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies [1][2]. Sugar - **International**: Tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, increasing the proportion of Brazilian sugar mills producing ethanol and reducing sugar supply. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of May increased year - on - year. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to produce 1005 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season [3]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons year - on - year. The sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Imported sugar is expected to increase in the future [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a stable rebound, the medium - term view is a weak oscillation, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: The US's raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated the Middle East situation. Although the probability of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low, there is a risk of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel. Non - OPEC resources are expected to expand, and OPEC+ is maintaining a production - increasing strategy [5][6]. - **Demand**: In the US, the refinery operating rate has returned to normal levels, but the downstream demand is poor. In China, the operating rate of major refineries is approaching 80%, and the gasoline consumption has slightly improved, while diesel demand has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks, while fuel inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks. Oil inventories are expected to accumulate, suppressing the upside of oil prices [6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is high - level fluctuations, the medium - term view is a downward - pressured operation, and the recommended strategy is a combination of short futures positions and buying call options [5][7]. PVC - **Cost**: The supply of calcium carbide in the northwest region is tightening, and the demand from downstream is weakening. As of June 23, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained flat [8]. - **Supply**: The 200,000 - ton/year PVC device of Haohua stopped production last week. As of June 20, the weekly operating rate of the PVC industry was 78.62%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - **Demand**: Some downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks, but the overall purchasing enthusiasm is not significantly improved. The export situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year, but the current orders have not increased significantly [8][9]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the social inventory of PVC was 355,100 tons, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week and a decrease of 41.19% year - on - year [9]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is range - bound fluctuations, the medium - term view is limited driving force for continuous growth, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term overseas disturbances have significantly increased, suppressing risk preferences. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the US intervention has an impact on the global and A - share markets. The domestic policy is expected to strengthen due to factors such as investment and inflation data [1][4]. - The market is in a pattern of frequent style switches between large - cap and small - cap stocks, lacking a continuous upward main - line opportunity [1]. - For different futures varieties, their price trends vary in the short and medium - term, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to their fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][5][8][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Narrow - range oscillation, with an increasing probability of a rebound in IC and IM - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound oscillation, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option, and try to go long on IM2507 on dips - **Core Logic**: Overseas disturbances suppress risk preferences; domestic demand needs further policy support; the market style switches frequently, and the four major indexes are at the lower edge of the box, increasing the probability of a rebound [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, and long - term bonds continue their relatively strong momentum - **Medium - term View**: Relatively strong - **Reference Strategy**: Reduce long positions in trading accounts for T2509 or TL2509, and hold long positions in allocation accounts - **Core Logic**: Overseas disturbances increase, benefiting safe - haven assets; the central bank's net injection has made the inter - bank liquidity balanced; domestic economic data shows that policy support is expected to strengthen [2][4] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector Copper - **Intraday View**: 78000 - 79200 - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillation - based trading approach - **Core Logic**: Inflation remains high in the US; global copper supply is tight, and China's copper imports have changed; copper demand in the new energy vehicle industry is strong, while air - conditioner production varies; copper inventories have decreased; the US tariff policy intensifies the supply - demand imbalance, but the domestic off - season may affect prices [5][6][7] Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 7350 - 7450 - **Medium - term View**: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 7000 - 8500 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2507 - C - 9000, and go short on futures on rallies - **Core Logic**: China's industrial silicon production has decreased; demand has also declined; the inventory is at a high level [8][9] Polysilicon - **Intraday View**: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 30,000 - 32,000 - **Medium - term View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 30,000 - 40,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2507 - C - 45000 and hold until maturity, and chase short on futures - **Core Logic**: China's polysilicon production has decreased; demand has declined; the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 58,000 - 60,000 - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with an operating range of 56,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 and hold until maturity - **Core Logic**: The spot price is at a low level, which is negative for futures prices; China's battery - grade lithium carbonate production has increased, and the inventory is at a high level [12][13]

Report Core View - On June 19 (Thursday), the WTI July crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed due to the Juneteenth holiday. The Brent August crude oil spot contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $2.15 per barrel to $78.85 per barrel, a gain of 2.80% [2] - A source said that US President Trump told his senior aides that he had approved an attack plan on Iran but would not issue a final order for the time being to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. The White House said Trump would decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that for the week ending June 13, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. US crude oil inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels, the largest decline since the week ending June 28, 2024, compared with a market expectation of a 1.8 million - barrel decrease. US crude oil inventories were 420.9 million barrels, the lowest level since January [4] - In the short - term, the market will still trade on Middle East geopolitical tensions, and oil prices will hover at high levels. Fundamentally, the peak summer driving season is approaching, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries have recovered from maintenance, the China - US economic and trade negotiations in London have made positive progress, the macro - environment is currently loose, OPEC+ has not effectively increased production, and US shale oil production has declined for seven consecutive weeks. In the long - term, due to the increasing supply trend and demand being restricted by the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices will decline from high levels [5]

金属及新能源材料板块 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.20） 商品期货和期权 品种：铝 日内观点：高位运行，运行区间：20300-20700 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19200-21000 参考策略：卖出 AL2507-P-19300 持有至到期，买入 AL2507-C-21000 持有至 到期 核心逻辑： 1、2017 年供给侧改革，规定我国电解铝产能上限为 4500 万吨。据阿拉丁资 讯，2025 年 5 月我国电解铝运行产能为 4413.9 万吨，产能增加空间十分有限。 2、社会库存方面，社会库存方面，截至 6 月 16 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝 社会库存为 45.6 万吨，较上周下降 0.30 万吨。去年同期库存为 75.5 万吨。当前 库存处于 5 年同期的最低位。库存持续下降，建议关注逼仓的可能性。 3、1-5 月份，汽车产销量分别完成 1282.6 万辆和 1274.8 万辆，同比分别增 长 12.7%和 10.9%。汽车市场表现向好，利好铝价。 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：钢价偏弱运行 中期观点：钢价整体承压 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1 策略早 ...