Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term pig price may have a small - scale rebound, but in the long - term, it will maintain a weak trend due to the supply - demand imbalance [1][2]. - The sugar price will stop falling and rebound in the short - term but will be in a weak oscillation in the medium - to - long - term as the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus [3][4]. - The crude oil price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but will decline in the long - term as the supply increases and demand is restricted [5][7]. - PVC will run strongly in the short - term due to the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict, but its price may face pressure in the long - term as its supply - demand fundamentals are not strong [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig - **Supply**: As of June 20, the average weight of national pig slaughter was 123.78kg, down 0.18kg from the previous week. Due to policy and temperature factors, scale enterprises are accelerating the weight reduction of pigs [1]. - **Demand**: On June 20, the slaughtering rate was 28.13%, slightly up from the previous week. However, consumer demand for pork is low in summer, limiting the further increase of the slaughtering rate [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a continued rise, the medium - term view is a weak operation after a phased rebound, and the recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies [1][2]. Sugar - **International**: Tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, increasing the proportion of Brazilian sugar mills producing ethanol and reducing sugar supply. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of May increased year - on - year. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to produce 1005 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season [3]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons year - on - year. The sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Imported sugar is expected to increase in the future [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a stable rebound, the medium - term view is a weak oscillation, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: The US's raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated the Middle East situation. Although the probability of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low, there is a risk of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel. Non - OPEC resources are expected to expand, and OPEC+ is maintaining a production - increasing strategy [5][6]. - **Demand**: In the US, the refinery operating rate has returned to normal levels, but the downstream demand is poor. In China, the operating rate of major refineries is approaching 80%, and the gasoline consumption has slightly improved, while diesel demand has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks, while fuel inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks. Oil inventories are expected to accumulate, suppressing the upside of oil prices [6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is high - level fluctuations, the medium - term view is a downward - pressured operation, and the recommended strategy is a combination of short futures positions and buying call options [5][7]. PVC - **Cost**: The supply of calcium carbide in the northwest region is tightening, and the demand from downstream is weakening. As of June 23, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained flat [8]. - **Supply**: The 200,000 - ton/year PVC device of Haohua stopped production last week. As of June 20, the weekly operating rate of the PVC industry was 78.62%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - **Demand**: Some downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks, but the overall purchasing enthusiasm is not significantly improved. The export situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year, but the current orders have not increased significantly [8][9]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the social inventory of PVC was 355,100 tons, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week and a decrease of 41.19% year - on - year [9]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is range - bound fluctuations, the medium - term view is limited driving force for continuous growth, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term overseas disturbances have significantly increased, suppressing risk preferences. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the US intervention has an impact on the global and A - share markets. The domestic policy is expected to strengthen due to factors such as investment and inflation data [1][4]. - The market is in a pattern of frequent style switches between large - cap and small - cap stocks, lacking a continuous upward main - line opportunity [1]. - For different futures varieties, their price trends vary in the short and medium - term, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to their fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][5][8][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Narrow - range oscillation, with an increasing probability of a rebound in IC and IM - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound oscillation, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option, and try to go long on IM2507 on dips - **Core Logic**: Overseas disturbances suppress risk preferences; domestic demand needs further policy support; the market style switches frequently, and the four major indexes are at the lower edge of the box, increasing the probability of a rebound [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, and long - term bonds continue their relatively strong momentum - **Medium - term View**: Relatively strong - **Reference Strategy**: Reduce long positions in trading accounts for T2509 or TL2509, and hold long positions in allocation accounts - **Core Logic**: Overseas disturbances increase, benefiting safe - haven assets; the central bank's net injection has made the inter - bank liquidity balanced; domestic economic data shows that policy support is expected to strengthen [2][4] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector Copper - **Intraday View**: 78000 - 79200 - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillation - based trading approach - **Core Logic**: Inflation remains high in the US; global copper supply is tight, and China's copper imports have changed; copper demand in the new energy vehicle industry is strong, while air - conditioner production varies; copper inventories have decreased; the US tariff policy intensifies the supply - demand imbalance, but the domestic off - season may affect prices [5][6][7] Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 7350 - 7450 - **Medium - term View**: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 7000 - 8500 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2507 - C - 9000, and go short on futures on rallies - **Core Logic**: China's industrial silicon production has decreased; demand has also declined; the inventory is at a high level [8][9] Polysilicon - **Intraday View**: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 30,000 - 32,000 - **Medium - term View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 30,000 - 40,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2507 - C - 45000 and hold until maturity, and chase short on futures - **Core Logic**: China's polysilicon production has decreased; demand has declined; the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 58,000 - 60,000 - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with an operating range of 56,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 and hold until maturity - **Core Logic**: The spot price is at a low level, which is negative for futures prices; China's battery - grade lithium carbonate production has increased, and the inventory is at a high level [12][13]

Report Core View - On June 19 (Thursday), the WTI July crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed due to the Juneteenth holiday. The Brent August crude oil spot contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $2.15 per barrel to $78.85 per barrel, a gain of 2.80% [2] - A source said that US President Trump told his senior aides that he had approved an attack plan on Iran but would not issue a final order for the time being to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. The White House said Trump would decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that for the week ending June 13, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. US crude oil inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels, the largest decline since the week ending June 28, 2024, compared with a market expectation of a 1.8 million - barrel decrease. US crude oil inventories were 420.9 million barrels, the lowest level since January [4] - In the short - term, the market will still trade on Middle East geopolitical tensions, and oil prices will hover at high levels. Fundamentally, the peak summer driving season is approaching, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries have recovered from maintenance, the China - US economic and trade negotiations in London have made positive progress, the macro - environment is currently loose, OPEC+ has not effectively increased production, and US shale oil production has declined for seven consecutive weeks. In the long - term, due to the increasing supply trend and demand being restricted by the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices will decline from high levels [5]

金属及新能源材料板块 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.20） 商品期货和期权 品种：铝 日内观点：高位运行，运行区间：20300-20700 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19200-21000 参考策略：卖出 AL2507-P-19300 持有至到期，买入 AL2507-C-21000 持有至 到期 核心逻辑： 1、2017 年供给侧改革，规定我国电解铝产能上限为 4500 万吨。据阿拉丁资 讯，2025 年 5 月我国电解铝运行产能为 4413.9 万吨，产能增加空间十分有限。 2、社会库存方面，社会库存方面，截至 6 月 16 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝 社会库存为 45.6 万吨，较上周下降 0.30 万吨。去年同期库存为 75.5 万吨。当前 库存处于 5 年同期的最低位。库存持续下降，建议关注逼仓的可能性。 3、1-5 月份，汽车产销量分别完成 1282.6 万辆和 1274.8 万辆，同比分别增 长 12.7%和 10.9%。汽车市场表现向好，利好铝价。 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：钢价偏弱运行 中期观点：钢价整体承压 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1 策略早 ...

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 19 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 地缘溢价支撑，油价高位震荡 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格小涨 6 月 18 日（周三），纽约商品期货交易所 WTI 7 月原油即期合约 收盘上涨 0.30 美元/桶，至 75.14 美元/桶，涨幅 0.40%。洲际交易所 布伦特 8 月原油即期合约收盘上涨 0.25 美元/桶，至 76.70 美元/桶， 涨幅 0.33%。 二、美国可能介入伊以战争 据外媒报道，美国正考虑在本周末对伊朗发动袭击。该报道援引 消息人士：美国对伊朗的任何攻击计划都在持续演变，美国官员正在 为未来几天可能对伊朗发动的袭击做准备，福尔多（Fordow）核设施 将是攻击的主要目标。 三、美国商业原油库存下降 美国能源信息署(EIA)公布库存报告显示，截至 6 月 13 日当周， 美国商业原油库存下降，但汽油和馏分油库存增加。当周，美国原油 库存下降 1150 万桶，该降幅为自 2024 年 6 月 28 日当周以来最大， 此前市场预期为减少 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For copper, the global supply - demand pattern remains tight due to pre - emptive US demand. The opening of the domestic refined copper export window since June supports copper prices before US tariffs are imposed, but weak tariff implementation may reduce copper trade demand [1][2][3]. - For protein粕, the RVO obligation of the US EPA is unexpectedly positive, and international vegetable oils are reasonably priced high in the short term. Soybean prices are mainly oscillating, and the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 is considered [4][5][6]. - For petroleum asphalt, the asphalt futures price maintains a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term due to crude oil cost support. In the long run, the asphalt fundamentals are weak in summer, and the asphalt cracking spread continues to weaken [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: 78200 - 79200 [1] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Macro**: The US Congressional Budget Office indicates that the "big and beautiful" legal system will increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion [1]. - **Supply**: In May 2025, China imported 2.4 million tons of copper ore concentrates, a 6.6% year - on - year increase; from January to May, the cumulative import was 12.41 million tons, a 7.4% year - on - year increase. The supply of recycled copper raw materials is tightening. The Kakula copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has复产, but the 2025 production plan is reduced. The Adani copper smelter in India has a risk of canceling the long - term supply contract [1]. - **Demand**: In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 23.6% year - on - year; imports decreased by 16.6% year - on - year. The overall market for refined copper rods is weak, and the new orders for enameled wire are decreasing. The US may impose a 25% tariff on imported copper [2]. - **Inventory**: On June 18, LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 107,400 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons to 47,000 tons, and international copper warehouse receipts decreased by 582 tons to 4,162 tons [2]. Livestock, Poultry and Soft Commodities Sector - Protein粕 - **Intraday View**: Soybean meal 2509 continues to oscillate between [3000, 3100] [4] - **Medium - term View**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [4] - **Core Logic**: - **Weather and Market Impact**: In late June, soybean meal 2509 follows US soybeans into an oscillating market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed production areas. The Middle East geopolitical conflict and the US EPA's RVO proposal have boosted soybean oil prices [4]. - **International Soybean Situation**: The good condition of US soybeans is negative for far - month contracts, but the strength of vegetable oils drives up US soybean prices, resulting in a mixed situation for soybean meal. The expected soybean arrivals in June, July, and August are 12 million tons, 9.5 million tons, and 8.5 million tons respectively [5]. - **Rapeseed Situation**: Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, which is negative for far - month contracts. ICE rapeseed follows the rise of US soybean oil. The estimated global rapeseed production in the 25/26 year is 89.77 million tons [5]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday View**: High - level oscillation [7] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [7] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the strategy of shorting asphalt and going long on high - sulfur fuel oil spread [7] - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: This week, the losses of local refineries in asphalt production have deepened, and the domestic asphalt refinery operating rate has decreased. As of June 17, the weekly asphalt production was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons [7]. - **Demand**: In the north, demand is restricted by high prices, and trading has declined slightly; in the south, demand is weak due to rainfall. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises is low. Asphalt refinery inventory has decreased, while social inventory is relatively stable [8]. - **Cost**: Geopolitical premiums support high oil prices in the short term. In the long run, oil prices will decline from high levels due to supply growth and weakening demand [8].

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 18 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 中东局势持续紧张，油价高位盘旋 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格上涨 6 月 17 日（周二），纽约商品期货交易所 WTI 7 月原油即期合约 收盘上涨 3.07 美元/桶，至 74.84 美元/桶，涨幅 4.28%。洲际交易所 布伦特 8 月原油即期合约收盘上涨 3.22 美元/桶，至 76.45 美元/桶， 涨幅 4.40%。 二、OPEC+增产不及预期 中东地缘局势紧张。美国总统特朗普表示，从未以任何方式、任 何形式与伊朗就"和平会谈"联系。以色列国防部长卡茨称，以军已 摧毁了伊朗纳坦兹核设施的中心区域，并计划摧毁伊朗核计划的所有 基础设施。以方将继续针对伊朗军事领导人、核计划和导弹系统发动 袭击。 四、后市展望 短期内市场仍将交易中东地缘局势，油价高位盘旋。从基本面来 看，夏季驾车旅行旺季临近，主要石油消费大国炼厂开工率已从检修 中恢复，在伦敦结束的中美经贸谈判取得积极进展，宏观环境目前亦 较为宽松，且 OPEC ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.18） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：窄幅震荡，沪深 300 指数运行区间[3840,3900] 中期观点：区间震荡，沪深 300 指数运行区间[3800,3950] 参考策略：持有卖出 MO2506-P-5800 虚值看跌期权、IM2506 空单 核心逻辑： 1.海外方面，地缘政治风险延续，全球金融市场风险偏好明显下降，海外股 市集体下跌，预计情绪上对 A 股市场带来一定负面影响。 2.国内方面，5 月基本面数据偏弱，经济呈现消费强、生产稳、投资弱特征， 不过物价水平表现不佳，内需依然疲弱。金融数据喜忧参半，居民部门贷款意愿不 高，企业部门贷款总量同比减少；M1 虽明显反弹，但基数效应特征明显。 3.市场继续处于风格高低频繁切换格局，大盘与小盘轮番占优，缺乏持续上 涨的主线机会，建议关注"板块大涨后兑现离场、板块调整后布局进场"的逆向操 作思路。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：短债窄幅波动，长债延续强势 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2509 或 TL2509 多单持有 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 核 ...

蛋白粕丨周报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 F03113318 Z0018777 2025 年 6 月 17 日 6 月 USDA 报告影响有限，本周油脂巨震粕类平淡 近期国内外蛋白粕期货行情回顾及分析： （一）豆粕：6 月 USDA 报告影响有限，关注月底种植调查报告 最新要点：6 月 USDA 平淡，美豆油 RVO 超预期、中东地缘政治 6 月 USDA 将在 13 日凌晨公布，数据调整甚微。2024/25 年度中 国大豆压榨量下调 100 万吨，2025/26 年度期初、期末库存随之上调， 期末库存上调 97 万吨至 1.253 亿吨。2025/26 年度大豆产量预估，巴 西 1.75 亿吨不变、阿根廷 4850 万吨不变；中国进口量预估 1.12 亿 吨不变。美国大豆和美豆油的 2025/26 年度平衡表也不变。 广金期货研究中心 农产品研究员 苏航 期货从业资格证号： 同在 13 日，美豆油迎双重利好。其一中东地缘冲突带动全球原 油植物油上涨；其二 EPA 审核通过 2026 年 RVO 掺混义务量，给出 56.1 亿加仑的超预期预期，已提交白宫审核。相比 202 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report covers different commodity futures and options, presenting diverse views for each variety. For example, for pork, it will likely rebound slightly in the short - term and remain weak in the medium - term; for sugar, it will stop falling and stabilize in the short - term and be weak in a volatile manner in the medium - term; for crude oil, it will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term; for PVC, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but lack strong driving forces for continuous increase in the medium - term [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - **Intraday View**: Slight rebound [1] - **Medium - term View**: Remain weak after the rebound [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Short after the rebound [1] - **Core Logic**: Official measures such as state purchases, bans on secondary fattening, and stricter environmental policies have signaled market price stabilization. In the short - term, changes in the average slaughter weight should be monitored, and in the long - term, policy implementation and capacity reduction are key factors. Overall, the price will likely remain weak after a short - term rebound [1]. Sugar - **Intraday View**: Stop falling and stabilize [2] - **Medium - term View**: Weak in a volatile manner [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, the tense Middle - East situation and weather conditions in major producing countries affect supply. Domestically, although sales are fast and industrial inventory is down, imports are expected to increase, and the overall 25/26 sugar season is expected to be in surplus, leading to a short - term stabilization and medium - term weakening of sugar prices [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate at a high level [5] - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the profitable position of selling out - of - the - money put options on SC2508 [5] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and OPEC+ policies affect supply. On the demand side, refinery operating rates are rising, but actual downstream demand is weak. In terms of inventory, commercial crude oil inventory is falling, while fuel inventory is rising. Overall, the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term [5][6][7]. PVC - **Intraday View**: Show a warm trend [8] - **Medium - term View**: Lack strong driving forces for continuous increase [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8] - **Core Logic**: Cost factors such as power rationing in Inner Mongolia affect supply. Supply has decreased due to plant maintenance. Demand from downstream enterprises has some changes, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but face pressure as demand seasons change [8][9][10].