1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures**: Intraday view is slightly weak with mid - term view of range - bound movement. The CSI 300 index is expected to operate within [3820, 3960]. Suggest to exit long positions in IF2506 and hold short positions in MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Intraday view is narrow - range fluctuation for TS2509 within [102.30, 102.50], with mid - term view being bullish [2]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Steel prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and under pressure overall in the mid - term. Suggest to continue selling call options on rebar RB2510 with strike prices between 3300 - 3450 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Core Logic**: Sino - US dialogue progresses, which injects stability into bilateral relations but also realizes bullish expectations. Domestic policies to stabilize and activate the capital market are introduced, which is beneficial for the A - share market. Market style switches frequently, lacking a continuous upward mainline. In the short - term, the market may remain volatile, and attention should be paid to structural allocation opportunities [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Core Logic**: The Sino - US leaders' call eases market concerns, and the ongoing Sino - US economic and trade consultations reduce bond market pressure. The central bank conducts large - scale net withdrawals, but the inter - bank market remains loose. The May price level is still poor, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing [4]. Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Core Logic**: The overall inventory pressure of steel raw materials is large, and the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs are expected to be under pressure in the mid - term. The downstream consumption of steel is still poor, with plate exports not fully recovered and construction demand weakening. Under the current supply - demand pressure, there is insufficient upward drive for steel prices [5][6][8].

Group 1: Aluminum - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The aluminum price is expected to have a high - level shock in the short - term (19800 - 20200) and run at a high level in the medium - term (19200 - 21000). The recommended strategy is to sell AL2507 - P - 19300 and hold it [1] - Summary of relevant content: As of May 26, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week and lower than 782,000 tons in the same period last year, being at the lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years, which is positive for the aluminum price. From January to April, automobile production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.9% and 10.8%, also positive for the aluminum price [1] Group 2: Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Steel prices are expected to run weakly in the short - term and be under overall pressure in the medium - term. The recommended strategy is to continue selling the call options of ribbed bar RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [2][4] - Summary of relevant content: The overall pressure on steel raw material inventory is still large. The 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 138.6658 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.68%, but the low - grade tradable inventory at ports is at a near 5 - year high in the same period. The sample mine clean coal inventory was 480,730 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.63% and a year - on - year increase of 73.71%. The coal washery clean coal inventory was 245,060 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.35% and a year - on - year increase of 33.35%, at the highest level in the same period of the past 5 years. Steel downstream consumption is still poor. For steel plates, export orders are still average and have not recovered to the pre - tax increase level. For building materials, construction is entering the off - season, with insufficient supporting funds for local incremental projects (the sample construction site fund availability rate is 58.87%, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year). This week, the construction steel consumption was 3.1487 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.31% [2][4]

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 05 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： 二、沙特希望继续增产 据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月继续加速石油 增产，因为沙特更加重视夺回失去的市场份额。知情人士称，沙特欧 佩克+中占据越来越大的主导地位，希望该组织在 8 月和可能的 9 月 至少增加 41.1 万桶/日的产量。 三、关注伊核协议 据纽约时报报道，特朗普政府正提议达成一项协议，允许伊朗继 续进行低浓度铀浓缩活动，同时美国和其他国家将制定更详细的计 划，以阻止伊朗发展核武器，同时允许其获得用于新核电站的核燃料。 伊朗官员表示，将在几天后做出回应。 四、后市展望 关注沙特希望继续增产及伊核协议，油价当前位置震荡。后期随 着石油季节性旺季到来，油价存在一定向上动力，不过上升空间不大， 上方压力来自于 OPEC+增产决心。远期来看，由于供应端维持增长趋 势，而需求受制于经济复苏前景低迷以及新能源的替代，油价仍有下 挫空间。 Z0017388 沙特希望继续扩大增产，油价受挫 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格下滑 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, the market is influenced by multiple factors. The US government's policies may intensify the global supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors like canceled photovoltaic projects and the off - season in the copper industry reduce the upward momentum. For protein粕, the market is complex with different trends in related products, and the future trend of bean粕 depends on factors such as US soybean weather. For petroleum asphalt, the demand is weak due to rainfall and project funds, and the supply is increasing, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [1][3][4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday view is in the range of 77000 - 78600, and the mid - term view is in the range of 60000 - 90000. The reference strategy is to adopt an oscillating operation idea [1]. - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, there are concerns about high tariffs on imported copper. Supply - wise, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine will resume operation at the end of June, and the global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness persists. Demand - wise, the开工 rate of refined copper rod enterprises is expected to rise slightly this week but may decline in June. Consumption in different regions is weak. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased on June 4 [1][2]. - **Outlook**: The US government's policies may exacerbate the supply - demand tightness, but domestic factors reduce the upward momentum [3]. Protein粕 - **Core Logic**: This week, the meal market oscillated. The pressure from domestic traders' large - scale purchases of South American soybeans may have been released. The weather speculation of US soybeans before the end of August may help bean粕 2509 build a bottom. The vegetable oil market has different trends, affected by policies and planting progress [4]. - **International Situation**: US soybean planting is going smoothly. The expected soybean arrivals in June, July, and August are 1200, 950, and 850 million tons respectively. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, and the global rapeseed production is expected to increase in the 25/26 season [5]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the USDA and MPOB monthly reports next week. Bean粕 2509 will generally oscillate, and it is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money put options on the near - month contracts [6]. - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday, bean粕 2509 oscillates in the range of [2900, 3000]. Mid - term, it searches for a bottom at a relatively low position in the range of [2800, 3100]. The reference strategy is to continue holding the sold out - of - the - money put option of bean粕 2509 - P - 2850 [7]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday and Mid - term Views**: Intraday, it runs under pressure, and mid - term, it oscillates weakly. The reference strategy is to sell high [8]. - **Core Logic**: Supply - side, local refineries' losses in asphalt production have deepened, but the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has increased. Demand - side, due to rainfall and project funds, the demand is weak. Inventory - wise, the plant inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, and the social inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The cost is affected by the oil price, which has some upward potential but also faces pressure from OPEC+ [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The release of asphalt's rigid demand is less than expected. In the long - term, with the increase in supply, if the oil price falls, the asphalt price is expected to follow a weak trend [10].

Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - Investment Rating: Intraday - Slightly Strong in Volatility; Medium - Term - Accumulating Strength for an Uptrend [1] - Core View: Overseas, US tariff news is inconsistent, causing disturbances to the equity market. Domestically, policies to stabilize and activate the capital market are introduced, which is beneficial for the A - share market. In the short - term, the market may remain volatile, but there is support from policies, and attention should be paid to structural allocation opportunities [1][2] - Reference Strategy: Exit the long IF2506 and short IM2506 hedging portfolio, hold long IF2506 positions, and sell the MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option [1] Treasury Bond Futures - Investment Rating: Intraday - Strong in Volatility; Medium - Term - Strong [3] - Core View: Overseas, the fluctuating US tariff situation drives funds to risk assets. The inter - bank market is loose, and the deposit rate cut is beneficial for the long - end bond market in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the large - scale CD maturities in June [4] - Reference Strategy: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [3] Commodity Futures and Options Aluminum - Investment Rating: Intraday - Range - bound; Medium - Term - High - level Operation [5] - Core View: The continuous decline in social inventory and the good performance of the automobile market are positive for aluminum prices, while the general decline in non - ferrous metals is negative [5][6] - Reference Strategy: Hold the short position of AL2507 - P - 19300 [5] Black and Building Materials Sector Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Investment Rating: Intraday - Steel Prices Weak; Medium - Term - Steel Prices Under Pressure [8] - Core View: The raw material inventory of steel has a large pressure, and the downstream consumption of steel is poor, so the upward driving force of steel prices is insufficient [8][9] - Reference Strategy: Continue to sell the call options of rebar RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [8]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.03） 养殖、畜牧及软商品板块 品种：生猪 核心逻辑： 1、供应方面，截至 2025 年 4 月，据农业农村部数据，全国能繁母猪存栏量为 4038 万头，环比持平，同比增长 1.3%。这一数据反映出自 2024 年 4 月以来，产能 累计上升 1.3%，处于较为平稳的格局，暂未出现产能下滑的情况。而根据第三方机 构钢联数据及涌益咨询的数据显示，2025 年 4 月能繁母猪存栏量环比小幅上升，尽 管第三方机构与官方数据在统计口径上存在一定的差异，但环比上涨在一定程度上 体现了市场上暂无去产能的驱动，甚至部分企业开始缓慢恢复产能。5 月份看来， 生猪市场情绪支撑因素仍存，叠加仔猪价格暂未明显下跌，预计上有能繁母猪存栏 量或仍然稳中有增。根据产能数据推算的生猪供应量仍然充足，暂未看到供应量下 降的格局。 2、需求方面，从投机性需求来看，据钢联数据统计，5 月 23 日当周国内重点 屠宰企业的冻品库容率为 17.28%，与上一周持平，处于历史低位。当前由于需求表 现疲软，冻品市场需求暂未改善，出库维持缓慢节奏。而部分屠宰企业现品销售困 难，存在被动分割入库的情况，综合导致 ...

Group 1: Aluminum - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Aluminum prices are expected to remain at a high level both in the short and medium term. The intraday operating range is 20,000 - 20,300, and the medium - term operating range is 19,200 - 21,000. The recommended strategy is to sell AL2507 - P - 19300 and hold [1]. - Key Points: - As of May 26, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from last week. The inventory is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years, which is positive for aluminum prices [1]. - From January to April, automobile production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively, which is also positive for aluminum prices [1]. Group 2: Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Steel prices are expected to be weak in the short term and under pressure in the medium term. The recommended strategy is to continue selling call options of ribbed bars RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [2]. - Key Points: - The overall inventory pressure of steel raw materials is still large. The 45 - port imported iron ore inventory this week was 138.5879 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%, but the low - grade tradable inventory at ports is at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years. With the recovery of overseas shipments in June and active domestic ore production, the supply pressure of iron ore is expected to increase. The sample mine coking coal inventory was 447,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.03% and a year - on - year increase of 63.33%. The coal - washing plant coking coal inventory was 214,740 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.65% and a year - on - year increase of 26.35%, at the highest level in the same period of the past 5 years. The high profitability of blast furnaces may lead to an increase in finished steel supply [2]. - The downstream consumption of steel is still poor. For steel plates, although the US tariff on Chinese exports has been temporarily reduced to 30%, export orders are still average. For building materials, due to poor project fund availability and heavy rainfall in the south, construction progress is slow, and the consumption of building steel this week was 334,780 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The weak demand for building materials is the main reason for the overall weaker consumption of the five major steel products compared to previous years [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On May 28 (Wednesday), the WTI July crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up $0.95 per barrel to $61.84 per barrel, a gain of 1.56%. The Brent July crude oil spot contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $0.81 per barrel to $64.9 per barrel, a gain of 1.26% [1]. - OPEC+ will hold another round of negotiations this Saturday, and may reach an agreement to further accelerate oil production increases in July. Representatives said that the 8 gradually increasing OPEC+ member countries participating on Saturday may agree to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, consistent with the increases in May and June [2]. - Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories declined last week, while distillate inventories rose. As of the week ending May 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels. Analysts previously predicted that U.S. crude oil inventories would increase by about 100,000 barrels, distillate inventories would increase by about 500,000 barrels, and gasoline inventories would decrease by about 500,000 barrels [3]. - Concerns about the risk of oil supply disruptions in parts of Canada and Libya are temporarily supporting oil prices. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season for oil, there is some upward momentum for oil prices, but the upside is limited. The upward pressure comes from uncertain tariff policies and OPEC+'s determination to increase production. In the long term, as the supply side maintains an upward trend while demand is constrained by the dim economic recovery prospects and the substitution of new energy, oil prices still have room to decline [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Movement - On May 28, WTI July crude oil spot contract rose $0.95/barrel to $61.84/barrel, up 1.56%, and Brent July crude oil spot contract rose $0.81/barrel to $64.9/barrel, up 1.26% [1]. 3.2 OPEC+ Meeting - OPEC+ will negotiate on Saturday and may agree on a 411,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in July for 8 member countries, same as May and June [2]. 3.3 U.S. Inventory - As of May 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased 1.3 million barrels, different from analysts' predictions [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short - term, oil prices are supported by supply disruptions and have upward momentum in the seasonal peak, but limited by tariff policies and OPEC+ production increase. In the long - term, supply growth and demand constraints may lead to price drops [4].

Group 1: Copper - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Copper prices show strong resilience due to US tariff policies despite the domestic market entering the off - season. There are concerns about supply due to the shutdown of the Kamoa copper mine [1] - Summary: - Intraday View: Fluctuate between 77,500 - 79,000 [1] - Medium - term View: Fluctuate between 66,000 - 90,000 [1] - Reference Strategy: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - Core Logic: Macro - Trump postponed EU tariffs, increasing market risk appetite; Supply - LME available inventory dropped to a one - year low, and the Kakula copper mine in Congo stopped production; Demand - US tariff policy boosted import demand, while domestic downstream demand declined; Inventory - LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased [1] Group 2: Protein Meal - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The trend of soybean meal being stronger in the far - term than the near - term is weakening. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options on near - term soybean meal contracts and holding the "long soybean oil 2509 - short palm oil 2509" position [4][6] - Summary: - Intraday View: Soybean and rapeseed meal continue to fluctuate widely [2] - Medium - term View: The far - strong and near - weak trend of soybean meal weakens [4] - Reference Strategy: Sell the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2509 - P - 2850 [4] - Core Logic: As of May 27, the basis of soybean meal spot - 09 was negative. There may be positive factors from US soybean shipments and weather speculation. Domestic soybean meal has the characteristic of "not following the rise of the external market". The US biodiesel policy and RVO obligations have uncertainties. South American soybean production is finalized, and the focus shifts to North America. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, while Ukrainian rapeseed production is expected to decline [4][5][6] Group 3: Petroleum Asphalt - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In the short term, asphalt prices face upward pressure due to factors such as rainfall and funds. In the long term, with the increase in supply and weak demand, if oil prices decline, asphalt prices are expected to follow a weak trend [8][10] - Summary: - Intraday View: Operate under pressure [7] - Medium - term View: Oscillate weakly [7] - Reference Strategy: Sell at high prices [8] - Core Logic: Supply - Local refineries are in a loss - making state, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has declined. Production is expected to increase in May. Demand - Rainfall in some areas and poor project funds have led to weak demand. Inventory - Asphalt plant inventory has decreased, while social inventory has increased. Cost - Oil price fluctuations are large, and there is support from raw material costs [8][9]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.28） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：蓄力上涨 参考策略：持有 IF2506 多单、多 IF2506 空 IM2506 对冲组合 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：窄幅震荡，TS2509 运行区间[102.30,202.50] 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2509 或 TL2509 多单持有 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑： 1.海外市场方面，美国总统特朗普表示，同意将对欧盟征收 50%关税的最后期 限延长至 7 月 9 日，欧美"关税战"缓和，美元指数止跌回升，欧美权益市场集体 反弹，有助风险情绪回归。 2.国内方面，稳定和活跃资本市场政策接连出台，进一步优化 A 股市场投资生 态。险资长期投资试点、公募基金管理费收取模式改革、上市公司并购重组新的安 排等，均有利于为 A 股注入增量资金和改善市场活跃度。 3.近期风格切换较为频繁，大盘与小盘轮番占优，市场行情轮动较快，缺乏持 续上涨的主线机会。同时，市场成交额尚未出现明显放量，投资者情绪相对谨慎。 短期内，市场或仍维持震荡格局，但在国内 ...