Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market situation is influenced by overseas tariff risks and domestic policies. The equity market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and the bond market also shows strength. Different commodity futures have various trends based on their specific supply - demand and macro - economic factors [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)** - **Intraday View**: Narrow - range fluctuation, with trading positions holding cash and waiting for opportunities [1]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the short position of the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option opportunistically, and cautiously hold long positions in IM2507 [1]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas tariff risks are rising, and domestic policies are boosting the domestic demand and the innovation of enterprises. Technically, the market is in a bullish cycle, and risk appetite has increased [1][2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)** - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, while long - term bonds are relatively stronger [3]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [3]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [5]. - **Core Logic**: The improvement of the long - term liability side of large banks and the expectation of policy easing support the bond market [5]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper** - **Intraday View**: The price range is 78800 - 80500 [6]. - **Medium - term View**: The price range is 60000 - 90000 [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a weak - biased oscillatory trading strategy [6]. - **Core Logic**: The possible Fed rate cut, supply changes in different regions, weak demand, inventory changes, and the upcoming Sino - US tariff negotiation results affect the copper market [6][7]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 7900 - 8200 [8]. - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure, with a range of 7000 - 8500 [8]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [8]. - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand are decreasing, and the inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Polysilicon** - **Intraday View**: Rise and then fall, with a range of 35000 - 36000 [11]. - **Medium - term View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 28000 - 38000 [11]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. - **Core Logic**: Supply and demand are both down, and the inventory is high, indicating an obvious supply surplus [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 63000 - 64000 [12]. - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with a range of 56000 - 68000 [12]. - **Reference Strategy**: Short the futures at high prices and sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [12]. - **Core Logic**: The spot price is low, supply pressure is high, and the inventory is at a high level [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term (20500 - 20700) and remain at a high level in the medium - term (19200 - 21000) [1]. - **Steel Products (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils)**: In the short - term, there will be a switch between long and short positions with a weakened downward drive, and it will stop falling and stabilize in the medium - term [2]. 3. Summary by Category Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Aluminum) - **Intraday View**: Aluminum is expected to run strongly, with an operating range of 20500 - 20700 [1]. - **Medium - term View**: It will operate at a high level, with an operating range of 19200 - 21000 [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [1]. - **Core Logic**: Limited capacity increase space, low inventory at a 5 - year low, and a positive automotive market support the aluminum price [1]. Black and Building Materials Sector (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Intraday View**: Short - term long - short switching with a weakened downward drive [2]. - **Medium - term View**: Stop falling and stabilize [2]. - **Reference Strategy**: Buy RB2510 at - the - money call options; short - term sell RB2510 straddle options (range 2900 - 3200) [3]. - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: After mid - July, the raw material inventory pressure of steel will be marginally relieved, supporting the cost of steel production. The supply pressure of imported iron ore will decrease, and coal and coke prices will stabilize and rebound [3]. - **Demand**: Although the overall downstream consumption of steel is weak, the low inventory, good plate demand, and positive factors such as the improvement in Sino - US tariff negotiations and the expectation of Fed rate cuts will boost speculative demand [4].

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.07.03） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：79500-81000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡偏强操作思路，买入看涨期权策略择机止盈 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，美联储官员表示，关税将提升通胀，但没必要因此而加息，年 内大概率有一次降息。 2、供给方面，智利国家统计局数据显示，智利5月铜产量为486574吨，环比增 加4.9%，为年内最高水平，且较上年同期增加9.4%。MMG和Hudbay Minerals旗下的 秘鲁矿山正在遭受手工采矿者-非正规矿工的封锁道路，扰乱矿山的物流运输，MMG旗 下Las Bambas(2025年预计年铜产量38万金属吨)和Hudbay旗下Constancia(2025年预 计年铜产量8-9.7万金属吨)铜矿运输中断。 3、需求方面，现货市场方面，上海、广东地区下游的消费需求受到铜价上涨 所抑制，市场新增订单难有增加，企业逢低刚需补库。华北地区部分现货商下调报价 出货，市场整体成交冷清。重庆地区铜厂采购情绪仍受淡季弱需求所主导。 4、库存方面，7月2日，上期所铜仓单增加324吨至25097吨。 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.07.02） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：持有卖出MO2507-P-5800虚值看跌期权、IM2507多单 核心逻辑： 1 .海外风险边际下行，中美磋商向积极方向推进，双方进一步确认了框架细 节，取消了部分限制，持续利多权益市场情绪。 2.国内方面，基本面回归偏弱现实，政策提振内需预期逐步兑现。央行等六部 门联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，支持政策提前落地。随 后，国家发展改革委表示将于今年7月份下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金。进一步 提振权益市场。 3.国常会定调，进一步强化企业科技创新主体地位，强调以"十年磨一剑"的坚 定决心，加快推进高水平科技自立自强，叠加科技板块中报业绩预期向好，科创板块 有望延续涨势，IC或IM继续占优。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：震荡反弹 2 .资金方面，跨月后银行间市场主要回购利率明显回落，隔夜跌近 1 5 B P向 1.35%靠拢，不过非银与存款类机构分化未退，关注央行流动性投放力度。中长期资 金继续小幅向宽，国股行1年期 ...

蛋白粕丨月报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 期货从业资格证号： F03113318 周度数据，新作大豆优良率较高，截至 6 月 29 日，大豆出苗率 94%，上期值 90%，去年同期 94%，五年均值 95%。开花率 17%，上期 值 8%，去年同期 18%，五年均值 16%。结荚率 3%，去年同期 3%，五年 均值 2%。优良率 66%，上期值 66%，去年同期 67%。 期货投资咨询证书： 阿根廷大豆收获完毕，农户们"抢售"赶在 7 月 1 日关税优惠到 期前甩卖大豆类产品。6 月 26 日国内多家大型贸易商采购阿根廷共 3 万吨豆粕，带动内外盘下跌。这是自 2019 年中阿协议签署后首次。 Z0018777 2025 年 7 月 1 日 美豆种植面积未作调整，关注产区天气与后续发船 近期国内外蛋白粕期货行情回顾及分析： （一）豆粕：6 月最后一周，内外盘粕类油脂，走势显著分化 最新要点：USDA 种植面积报告与季末库存报告；油粕驱动分化 6 月底 USDA 发布两份季度报告，预计 2025 年大豆播种面积 8340 万英亩，符合预期，相比 6 月 WASDE 报调整很 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the financial futures and options market, both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are expected to be strong in the short and medium - term. In the commodity futures and options market, different metals and energy materials, as well as agricultural products, have their own unique supply - demand and price trends [1][2][4]. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [1] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2507 long positions [1] - **Core logic**: Positive sentiment in the equity market due to Sino - US communication and policy support, and the potential rise of the science and technology sector [1] Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL) - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [2] - **Medium - term view**: Bullish [2] - **Reference strategy**: Hold T2509 or TL2509 long positions [3] - **Core logic**: Weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy expectations, and the central bank's continued net investment affects the capital market [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials - **Copper** - **Day - to - day view**: Price range from 79,200 to 81,000 [4] - **Medium - term view**: Price range from 60,000 to 90,000 [4] - **Reference strategy**: Adopt an oscillating and slightly upward trading idea, buy call options [4] - **Core logic**: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US, supply shortages, and changes in international demand and inventory levels affect copper prices [4] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 8,000 to 8,100 [5] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure, price range from 7,000 to 9,000 [5] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short SI2508 - C - 9000 until expiration, short futures on rallies [5] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [5] - **Polysilicon** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 33,000 to 35,000 [7] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a low level, price range from 28,000 to 38,000 [7] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short PS2508 - C - 45000 until expiration [7] - **Core logic**: Decreased supply and demand, and high inventory levels [7] - **Aluminum** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 20,400 to 20,700 [9] - **Medium - term view**: Trade at a high level, price range from 19,200 to 21,000 [9] - **Reference strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [9] - **Core logic**: Limited supply increase, low inventory, good performance in the automotive market, and the overall rise of non - ferrous metals [9] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias, price range from 63,000 to 65,000 [11] - **Medium - term view**: Cost support weakens, prices decline steadily, price range from 56,000 to 68,000 [11] - **Reference strategy**: Short futures on rallies, sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core logic**: Low spot prices, large supply, and high inventory levels [11] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Day - to - day view**: Downward pressure weakens [14] - **Medium - term view**: Stop falling and stabilize [14] - **Reference strategy**: Exit the strategy of selling call options and buying put options on RB2510, sell out - of - the - money put options on rebar RB2510 [14] - **Core logic**: Potential relief of raw material inventory pressure and changes in supply and demand [14] Livestock, Poultry, and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Day - to - day view**: Run with a slight upward bias [17] - **Medium - term view**: Rebound temporarily and then maintain a weak trend [17] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [17] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply and demand, with supply remaining abundant and demand weak [17] - **Sugar** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate weakly [19] - **Medium - term view**: Rise first and then fall [19] - **Reference strategy**: Short on rallies [19] - **Core logic**: Global supply surplus expectations and domestic supply - demand and import situations [19] - **Protein Meal** - **Day - to - day view**: Soybean meal 2509 oscillates in the range of [2,900, 3,000] [22] - **Medium - term view**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2,900, 3,100] [22] - **Reference strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850 [22] - **Core logic**: Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean and Canadian rapeseed growing areas, and changes in international and domestic soybean and rapeseed markets [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate within a range [25] - **Medium - term view**: Face downward pressure [25] - **Reference strategy**: Hold short out - of - the - money call options on PG2508 [25] - **Core logic**: Changes in supply, demand, and cost factors [25] - **PVC** - **Day - to - day view**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [28] - **Medium - term view**: Limited upside potential [28] - **Reference strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on PVC [28] - **Core logic**: Changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory levels [28]

（2025.06.27） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铝 日内观点：偏强运行，运行区间：20400-20700 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 2、社会库存方面，截至 6 月 23 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 46.5 万吨，较上周增加 1.80 万吨。去年同期库存为 76.4 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期 的最低位，利好铝价。 3、1-5 月份，汽车产销量分别完成 1282.6 万辆和 1274.8 万辆，同比分别增 长 12.7%和 10.9%。汽车市场表现向好，亦利好铝价。 4、有色普涨，提振铝价。 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19200-21000 参考策略：卖出 AL2508-P-19300 核心逻辑： 1、2017 年供给侧改革，规定我国电解铝产能上限为 4500 万吨。据阿拉丁资 讯，2025 年 5 月我国电解铝运行产能为 4413.9 万吨，产能增加空间十分有限。供 应端为价格提供较强支撑。 2、下游消费逐渐进入淡季。钢材下游消费表现仍然不佳，其中建材方面，由 于建筑施工逐渐进入淡季，加上地方 ...

Report Overview - **Date**: June 26, 2025 - **Report Type**: Main Variety Strategy Breakfast - **Covered Industries**: Commodity Futures and Options (including Metal and New Energy Materials, Livestock and Soft Commodities, Energy and Chemicals) Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: 78300 - 79300 [1] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [1] Core View - The Fed's expected rate cut, declining scrap copper supply, tight supply - demand of copper concentrates, increased US trade demand, and continuous destocking of domestic inventories will boost copper prices [4] Summary by Section - **Macro**: Most Fed officials believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates later this year [1] - **Supply**: In May, total scrap copper imports decreased by 9.55% month - on - month and 6.63% year - on - year. The proportion of scrap copper imports from the US will fall below 5% in June. Spot supply in the Guangdong market increased, while that in the North China market was normal [1] - **Demand**: In May, the total export volume of refined copper rods increased by 17.57% month - on - month and 34% year - on - year. However, terminal demand weakened in June. Many recycled copper rod enterprises had insufficient orders, and downstream copper factories in Chongqing almost stopped purchasing [2] - **Inventory**: On June 25, LME copper inventory decreased by 1200 tons to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21470 tons [2] - **Strategy**: Adopt an operation idea of sideways with a bullish bias and sell deep out - of - the - money put options [1] Livestock and Soft Commodities - Protein Meal Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Soybean meal 2509 will oscillate weakly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Soybean meal 2509 will build a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [5] Core View - Domestic soybean meal is influenced by multiple factors. After recent declines fully digesting negative factors, it may build a phased bottom around 3000 points. The "sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400" strategy can be continued [5][7] Summary by Section - **Weather and Geopolitics**: In late June, soybean meal 2509 entered a volatile market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed producing areas. The easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has affected the price of soybean meal [5] - **International Soybeans**: As of the week ending June 22, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. Forecasts show sufficient import volumes of soybeans from June to August. Anec raised Brazil's soybean export forecast for June to 14.99 million tons [6] - **Rapeseed**: Canadian new - crop rapeseed is planted relatively fast but is experiencing mild drought. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised the export volume of old - crop rapeseed by 500,000 tons to 9 million tons [6] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold the position of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [5] Energy and Chemicals - Petroleum Asphalt Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Weak sideways movement [8] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [9] Core View - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, and asphalt futures prices have also followed. In the long term, the asphalt fundamentals are relatively weak in summer, and the asphalt crack spread will continue to weaken [11] Summary by Section - **Supply**: Local refineries' losses in asphalt production have decreased, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate and production have increased. It is expected that they will continue to rise before the peak season [9] - **Demand**: High prices in the north and rainfall in the south have restricted demand. Some downstream enterprises have pre - stocking demand. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises has increased significantly. Asphalt plant inventories have continued to decline, and the decline in social inventories has slowed down [10] - **Cost**: In the short term, oil prices have fallen due to the extrusion of geopolitical premiums. In the long term, oil prices are still under pressure [10] - **Strategy**: Short fuel oil and long asphalt spread [9]

Report Summary Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Oscillating with an upward bias; Medium - term: Bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Oscillating slightly weaker; Medium - term: Bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Short - term: Steel prices to run weakly; Medium - term: Downward pressure on steel prices persists [4] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas geopolitical tensions ease, and domestic policies are expected to boost the A - share market [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Geopolitical easing pressures safe - haven assets, and domestic policies are expected to be more accommodative [2][3] - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: High raw material inventory and weak downstream demand lead to downward pressure on steel prices [4][5] Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and long IM2507 contracts [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the easing of geopolitical tensions boosts risk sentiment; domestically, policies are expected to boost domestic demand [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Reference Strategy**: Reduce long positions in T2509 or TL2509 trading accounts, and hold long positions in allocation accounts [2] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical easing pressures safe - haven assets; the central bank increases net investment to stabilize funds; domestic policies are expected to be more accommodative [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Reference Strategy**: Re - enter the strategy of selling RB2510 call options (exercise price 3150 - 3450) or buy RB2510 at - the - money put options [4][6] - **Core Logic**: High raw material inventory and weak downstream demand, especially in the construction season, and the easing of geopolitical tensions reduces the upward drive of steel prices [4][5]

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 24 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 伊以将达成停火协议，油价大幅下挫 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格暴跌 6 月 23 日（周一），国际油价收盘大幅下跌，纽约商品期货交易 所 WTI 8 月原油即期合约收盘下跌 5.33 美元/桶，至 68.51 美元/桶， 跌幅 7.22%。洲际交易所布伦特 8 月原油即期合约收盘下跌 5.53 美元 /桶，至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。24 日亚洲时段早盘 WTI、Brent 原油继续下行。 二、伊朗袭击美国驻卡塔尔军事基地 伊朗实施报复，导弹打击美国驻卡塔尔空军基地，但报复的严重 性低于市场预期。特朗普回应伊朗报复：感谢伊朗提前通知。美国总 统特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致，将实现全面停火。 三、美国商业原油库存下降 6 月 23 日，一项初步调查结果显示，上周美国原油库存可能下降， 而汽油库存料持平、馏分油库存可能增加。分析机构预计，截至 6 月 20 日当周美国原油库存减少约 20 万桶。 ...