能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 19 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 地缘溢价支撑，油价高位震荡 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格小涨 6 月 18 日（周三），纽约商品期货交易所 WTI 7 月原油即期合约 收盘上涨 0.30 美元/桶，至 75.14 美元/桶，涨幅 0.40%。洲际交易所 布伦特 8 月原油即期合约收盘上涨 0.25 美元/桶，至 76.70 美元/桶， 涨幅 0.33%。 二、美国可能介入伊以战争 据外媒报道，美国正考虑在本周末对伊朗发动袭击。该报道援引 消息人士：美国对伊朗的任何攻击计划都在持续演变，美国官员正在 为未来几天可能对伊朗发动的袭击做准备，福尔多（Fordow）核设施 将是攻击的主要目标。 三、美国商业原油库存下降 美国能源信息署(EIA)公布库存报告显示，截至 6 月 13 日当周， 美国商业原油库存下降，但汽油和馏分油库存增加。当周，美国原油 库存下降 1150 万桶，该降幅为自 2024 年 6 月 28 日当周以来最大， 此前市场预期为减少 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For copper, the global supply - demand pattern remains tight due to pre - emptive US demand. The opening of the domestic refined copper export window since June supports copper prices before US tariffs are imposed, but weak tariff implementation may reduce copper trade demand [1][2][3]. - For protein粕, the RVO obligation of the US EPA is unexpectedly positive, and international vegetable oils are reasonably priced high in the short term. Soybean prices are mainly oscillating, and the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 is considered [4][5][6]. - For petroleum asphalt, the asphalt futures price maintains a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term due to crude oil cost support. In the long run, the asphalt fundamentals are weak in summer, and the asphalt cracking spread continues to weaken [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: 78200 - 79200 [1] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Macro**: The US Congressional Budget Office indicates that the "big and beautiful" legal system will increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion [1]. - **Supply**: In May 2025, China imported 2.4 million tons of copper ore concentrates, a 6.6% year - on - year increase; from January to May, the cumulative import was 12.41 million tons, a 7.4% year - on - year increase. The supply of recycled copper raw materials is tightening. The Kakula copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has复产, but the 2025 production plan is reduced. The Adani copper smelter in India has a risk of canceling the long - term supply contract [1]. - **Demand**: In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 23.6% year - on - year; imports decreased by 16.6% year - on - year. The overall market for refined copper rods is weak, and the new orders for enameled wire are decreasing. The US may impose a 25% tariff on imported copper [2]. - **Inventory**: On June 18, LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 107,400 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons to 47,000 tons, and international copper warehouse receipts decreased by 582 tons to 4,162 tons [2]. Livestock, Poultry and Soft Commodities Sector - Protein粕 - **Intraday View**: Soybean meal 2509 continues to oscillate between [3000, 3100] [4] - **Medium - term View**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [4] - **Core Logic**: - **Weather and Market Impact**: In late June, soybean meal 2509 follows US soybeans into an oscillating market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed production areas. The Middle East geopolitical conflict and the US EPA's RVO proposal have boosted soybean oil prices [4]. - **International Soybean Situation**: The good condition of US soybeans is negative for far - month contracts, but the strength of vegetable oils drives up US soybean prices, resulting in a mixed situation for soybean meal. The expected soybean arrivals in June, July, and August are 12 million tons, 9.5 million tons, and 8.5 million tons respectively [5]. - **Rapeseed Situation**: Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, which is negative for far - month contracts. ICE rapeseed follows the rise of US soybean oil. The estimated global rapeseed production in the 25/26 year is 89.77 million tons [5]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday View**: High - level oscillation [7] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [7] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the strategy of shorting asphalt and going long on high - sulfur fuel oil spread [7] - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: This week, the losses of local refineries in asphalt production have deepened, and the domestic asphalt refinery operating rate has decreased. As of June 17, the weekly asphalt production was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons [7]. - **Demand**: In the north, demand is restricted by high prices, and trading has declined slightly; in the south, demand is weak due to rainfall. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises is low. Asphalt refinery inventory has decreased, while social inventory is relatively stable [8]. - **Cost**: Geopolitical premiums support high oil prices in the short term. In the long run, oil prices will decline from high levels due to supply growth and weakening demand [8].

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 18 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 中东局势持续紧张，油价高位盘旋 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格上涨 6 月 17 日（周二），纽约商品期货交易所 WTI 7 月原油即期合约 收盘上涨 3.07 美元/桶，至 74.84 美元/桶，涨幅 4.28%。洲际交易所 布伦特 8 月原油即期合约收盘上涨 3.22 美元/桶，至 76.45 美元/桶， 涨幅 4.40%。 二、OPEC+增产不及预期 中东地缘局势紧张。美国总统特朗普表示，从未以任何方式、任 何形式与伊朗就"和平会谈"联系。以色列国防部长卡茨称，以军已 摧毁了伊朗纳坦兹核设施的中心区域，并计划摧毁伊朗核计划的所有 基础设施。以方将继续针对伊朗军事领导人、核计划和导弹系统发动 袭击。 四、后市展望 短期内市场仍将交易中东地缘局势，油价高位盘旋。从基本面来 看，夏季驾车旅行旺季临近，主要石油消费大国炼厂开工率已从检修 中恢复，在伦敦结束的中美经贸谈判取得积极进展，宏观环境目前亦 较为宽松，且 OPEC ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.18） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：窄幅震荡，沪深 300 指数运行区间[3840,3900] 中期观点：区间震荡，沪深 300 指数运行区间[3800,3950] 参考策略：持有卖出 MO2506-P-5800 虚值看跌期权、IM2506 空单 核心逻辑： 1.海外方面，地缘政治风险延续，全球金融市场风险偏好明显下降，海外股 市集体下跌，预计情绪上对 A 股市场带来一定负面影响。 2.国内方面，5 月基本面数据偏弱，经济呈现消费强、生产稳、投资弱特征， 不过物价水平表现不佳，内需依然疲弱。金融数据喜忧参半，居民部门贷款意愿不 高，企业部门贷款总量同比减少；M1 虽明显反弹，但基数效应特征明显。 3.市场继续处于风格高低频繁切换格局，大盘与小盘轮番占优，缺乏持续上 涨的主线机会，建议关注"板块大涨后兑现离场、板块调整后布局进场"的逆向操 作思路。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：短债窄幅波动，长债延续强势 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2509 或 TL2509 多单持有 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 核 ...

蛋白粕丨周报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 F03113318 Z0018777 2025 年 6 月 17 日 6 月 USDA 报告影响有限，本周油脂巨震粕类平淡 近期国内外蛋白粕期货行情回顾及分析： （一）豆粕：6 月 USDA 报告影响有限，关注月底种植调查报告 最新要点：6 月 USDA 平淡，美豆油 RVO 超预期、中东地缘政治 6 月 USDA 将在 13 日凌晨公布，数据调整甚微。2024/25 年度中 国大豆压榨量下调 100 万吨，2025/26 年度期初、期末库存随之上调， 期末库存上调 97 万吨至 1.253 亿吨。2025/26 年度大豆产量预估，巴 西 1.75 亿吨不变、阿根廷 4850 万吨不变；中国进口量预估 1.12 亿 吨不变。美国大豆和美豆油的 2025/26 年度平衡表也不变。 广金期货研究中心 农产品研究员 苏航 期货从业资格证号： 同在 13 日，美豆油迎双重利好。其一中东地缘冲突带动全球原 油植物油上涨；其二 EPA 审核通过 2026 年 RVO 掺混义务量，给出 56.1 亿加仑的超预期预期，已提交白宫审核。相比 202 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report covers different commodity futures and options, presenting diverse views for each variety. For example, for pork, it will likely rebound slightly in the short - term and remain weak in the medium - term; for sugar, it will stop falling and stabilize in the short - term and be weak in a volatile manner in the medium - term; for crude oil, it will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term; for PVC, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but lack strong driving forces for continuous increase in the medium - term [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - **Intraday View**: Slight rebound [1] - **Medium - term View**: Remain weak after the rebound [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Short after the rebound [1] - **Core Logic**: Official measures such as state purchases, bans on secondary fattening, and stricter environmental policies have signaled market price stabilization. In the short - term, changes in the average slaughter weight should be monitored, and in the long - term, policy implementation and capacity reduction are key factors. Overall, the price will likely remain weak after a short - term rebound [1]. Sugar - **Intraday View**: Stop falling and stabilize [2] - **Medium - term View**: Weak in a volatile manner [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, the tense Middle - East situation and weather conditions in major producing countries affect supply. Domestically, although sales are fast and industrial inventory is down, imports are expected to increase, and the overall 25/26 sugar season is expected to be in surplus, leading to a short - term stabilization and medium - term weakening of sugar prices [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate at a high level [5] - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the profitable position of selling out - of - the - money put options on SC2508 [5] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and OPEC+ policies affect supply. On the demand side, refinery operating rates are rising, but actual downstream demand is weak. In terms of inventory, commercial crude oil inventory is falling, while fuel inventory is rising. Overall, the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term [5][6][7]. PVC - **Intraday View**: Show a warm trend [8] - **Medium - term View**: Lack strong driving forces for continuous increase [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8] - **Core Logic**: Cost factors such as power rationing in Inner Mongolia affect supply. Supply has decreased due to plant maintenance. Demand from downstream enterprises has some changes, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but face pressure as demand seasons change [8][9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For financial futures and options, the overall market is affected by overseas and domestic factors. The stock index futures are expected to continue adjusting in the short - term and move in a range in the medium - term, while the bond futures are expected to be strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - For commodity futures and options, different varieties in the metal and new energy materials sector have different trends. Copper is expected to move in a range, while industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate are expected to be weak [4][6][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Intraday View**: Continued adjustment [1] - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option, and short - sell IM2506 on rallies [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the initial Sino - US trade agreement and the Middle East conflict have mixed impacts; domestically, the fundamental data is weak, and the market lacks a continuous upward main line [1] Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [2] - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, and long - term bonds are strong [2] - **Medium - term View**: Strong [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the Middle East conflict boosts the domestic bond market; in terms of funds, the central bank's operation is beneficial to long - term bonds; fundamentally, the financial data and price levels support the loose expectation [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: 78000 - 79100 [4] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a shock - operation strategy [4] - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, the Israel - Iran conflict affects the market; in terms of supply, the production plan of a copper mine is reduced, while Yunnan Copper's production increases; in terms of demand, the wire and cable and copper rod industries have different trends; in terms of inventory, LME and SHFE have different inventory changes. The Sino - US tariff negotiation results are crucial for the future copper price [4][5] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 7300 - 7400 [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure in the range of 7000 - 8500 [6] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2507 - C - 9000 and short - sell futures [6] - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [6][7] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Polycrystalline Silicon - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 33000 - 34000 [8] - **Medium - term View**: Low - level operation in the range of 30000 - 40000 [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold PS2507 - C - 45000 [8] - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [8][9][10] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 62000 - 65000 [11] - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price steadily declines in the range of 59000 - 65000 [11] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold LC2507 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core Logic**: The spot price is low, the supply pressure is large, and the total inventory is at a high level [11]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.12） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：78700-81000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，世行在报告中预计， 今年发达经济体经济将增长 1.2%，比此前预测低 0.5 个百分点。其中，将美国经济增速从此前的 2.3%大幅下调至 1.4%。欧元区和日本的经 济增速均被下调至 0.7%。 2、供给方面，2025 年 4 月份智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)铜产量同比增加 20.5%至 11.46 万吨，得益于部分矿山技改完成。必和必拓旗下的 Escondida 铜矿 4 月份铜产量同比 增长 31%至 12.84 万吨，这反映高品位矿石的开采效率提升。由嘉能可和英美资源集团联 合经营的另一座大型铜矿 Collahuasi4 月份铜产量同比下降 13.5%至 3.66 万吨，归因于矿石 品位下降或运营调整。全球铜精矿和废铜短期的格局持续。 3、需求方面，5 月，新能源汽车表现尤为突出，单月销量达 130.7 万辆，同比增长 36.9%。电解铜现货市场方面，重庆地区下游消费进入淡季，叠加 ...

粕类油脂丨日报 s 2024 年 6 月 11 日 MPOB 确认 5 月增产利多出尽，等待 USDA 月报 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 4、国家粮油信息中心监测显示，6 月 6 日，全国主要油厂进口大 豆库存 674.1 万吨，周环比上升 30 万吨，月环比上升 83 万吨，同比 上升 64 万吨，较过去三年均值上升 100 万吨；主要油厂豆粕库存 39 万吨，周环比上升 8 万吨，月环比上升 29 万吨，同比下降 52 万吨， 仍处于历史同期较低。 （二）棕榈系油脂 1、马来西亚棕榈油局 MPOB 的月报，产量和出口高于路透社前瞻 数据，月末库存低于路透社前瞻数据：马来西亚 5 月棕榈油产量为 1771621 吨，环比增长 5.05%。马来西亚 5 月棕榈油出口为 1387236 吨，环比增长 25.62%。马来西亚 5 月棕榈油库存量为 1990154 吨，环 比增长 6.65%。 2、据马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec，马来西亚 6 月 1-10 日棕榈 油出口量为 327355 吨，较上月同期出口的 302908 吨增加 8.07%。船 运调查机构 ITS 数据显示，马来西亚 6 月 1-10 日 ...

能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： 能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 11 日 广金期货研究中心 F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 EIA 预测供增需降，油价下滑 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格下滑 6 月 10 日（周二），纽约商品期货交易所 WTI 7 月原油即期合约 收盘下跌 0.31 美元/桶，至 64.98 美元/桶，跌幅 0.47%。洲际交易所 布伦特 8 月原油即期合约收盘下跌 0.17 美元/桶，至 66.87 美元/桶， 跌幅 0.25%。 二、OPEC+增产不及预期 市场机构调查数据显示，5 月 OPEC 原油产量增幅低于目标，伊 拉克进一步减产以弥补此前超额产出，而沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的增产 幅度亦低于允许范围。调查显示，上月欧佩克石油产量为每日 2675 万桶，较 4 月总产量增加 15 万桶/日。根据 OPEC+八个成员国关于 5 月产量的协议，其中五个 OPEC 成员国（阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威 特、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋）应将产量提高 31 万桶/日。 三、EIA 预测供增需降 美国能源信息署（EIA）发布月度短观能源展望报 ...