Report Overview - **Date**: April 2, 2025 - **Research Institution**: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Co., Ltd. - **Research Team**: Li Binlian, Ma Chen, Xue Libing, Li Jun Investment Ratings - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Slightly Strong; Medium - term: Strong [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Narrow - range Fluctuation; Medium - term: Strong [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Short - term: Weak; Medium - term: Under Pressure [3] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflows. Overseas, US tariff policies and inflation data affect the market. The equity market pricing returns to fundamentals, with short - term performance expectations and medium - term domestic technology innovation as the main lines [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Post - quarter liquidity is generally optimistic, but central bank operations limit overnight rates. Policy emphasizes long - term bond yields, and the weak fundamental improvement expectation supports long - term bonds [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Steel exports face trade barriers, consumption improvement is less than expected, and raw material inventory pressure is large, leading to steel prices under pressure [3][4] Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options, and exit the long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio opportunistically [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Domestic**: From January to February, industrial enterprise profits were structurally stable, and PMI data was positive. Capital market systems for securities issuance and refinancing were optimized, and long - term institutional funds were promoted [1] - **Overseas**: US auto tariff policies and high inflation data increased market concerns about stagflation, and the uncertainty of tariffs and interest rate cuts affected the equity market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2506 and TL2506 [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Funds**: Post - quarter liquidity was optimistic, but central bank net withdrawals limited overnight rate decline. Long - term funds' interest rates were relatively stable [2] - **Policy**: The central bank's Q1 monetary policy meeting emphasized long - term bond yields to prevent systemic risks [2] - **Fundamentals**: Economic data in the first two months was mediocre, with weak external demand, inflation, and financial data, hindering the improvement expectation [2] Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 inter - period positive spread strategy [3] - **Core Logic**: - **Exports**: Steel exports faced trade barriers such as anti - dumping duties from Vietnam and South Korea [3] - **Consumption**: Steel consumption improvement was less than expected, with poor construction funds and weak rebar consumption [3] - **Raw Materials**: Iron ore and coal - coke inventories had pressure, which might increase steel supply and put pressure on costs [3][4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - No overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Pig Futures**: The short - term view is stable but weak, and there is significant supply pressure from March to April. The trading logic is to sell on rebounds. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in accumulative sales option products [1][3]. - **Sugar Futures**: The short - term view is stable but strong, and the medium - term view is first rising then falling. It is recommended to continue holding the 9890 call option [4]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The short - term view is that the bottom is rising, and the medium - term view is under pressure. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on SC2506 [5][7]. - **PVC Futures**: The short - term view is range - bound between 5050 and 5250, and the medium - term view is that the upward momentum is limited. It is recommended to participate in the PVC 5 - 9 reverse spread when the price increase narrows [8]. Group 2: Summary by Variety Pig - **Supply**: As of February 2025, the national inventory of fertile sows was 4.066 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. The supply of pigs calculated based on production capacity data is still sufficient [1]. - **Restocking**: Since mid - March, farmers' restocking enthusiasm has increased, and the price of piglets has reached a new high for the year. The supply of pigs in the second half of the year may be more abundant [2]. - **Comprehensive Situation**: From March to April, there is significant supply pressure, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The futures market is in a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom - support on the downside [3]. Sugar - **Negative Factors**: The news of India's sugar production reduction in the 24/25 season has been digested. Brazil's improved weather, currency depreciation, and speculative funds' profit - taking have put pressure on the raw sugar price [4]. - **Positive Factors**: Brazil's low inventory restricts its export space, and India's sugar production reduction and ethanol diversion have intensified inventory shortages. There may be a short - term shortage in the trade flow during the transition period between the old and new seasons [4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC + announced a monthly compensatory production cut plan from March this year to June next year, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have affected supply. The production of Venezuelan crude oil is expected to decline from April [5]. - **Demand**: In March, the domestic gasoline and diesel market was weak, and the demand for refined oil was affected by refinery maintenance. The operating rate of US refineries has not returned to normal [5]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased after three consecutive weeks of accumulation. The WTI and Brent are in a Back structure, and the spread in the near - end market is expected to widen slightly [6][7]. - **Comprehensive Situation**: In the short term, oil prices are expected to gradually rise from the bottom. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the price center will move down [7]. PVC - **Cost**: The impact of power restrictions in the northwest region has weakened, and the supply of calcium carbide has increased. As of March 28, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [8]. - **Supply**: Some PVC plants were under maintenance last week, and there are no planned maintenance enterprises next week. The industry will enter a concentrated maintenance period from April to May, and supply will decline seasonally [8]. - **Demand**: The pre - sales orders of PVC production enterprises have improved, the export has increased slightly, but the operating rate of downstream product enterprises has increased slowly [8]. - **Inventory**: PVC inventories have decreased for six consecutive weeks. As of March 28, the domestic social inventory of PVC was 469,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.80% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.42% [9]. - **Comprehensive Situation**: After entering the maintenance season in April, the supply pressure may ease, and the supply - demand situation will improve marginally, but the upward momentum of prices is insufficient [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - range - bound; Medium - term - bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - short - term bonds narrow - range bound, long - term bonds poised for rebound; Medium - term - bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Copper**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 79000 - 81000; Medium - term - range between 66000 - 90000 [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level operation in the range of 9700 - 9900; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 9600 - 11000 [8] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 43000 - 44000; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 43000 - 47000 [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level oscillation in the range of 73500 - 74500; Medium - term - fluctuate around production cost in the range of 65000 - 85000 [12] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflow. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy expansion and high inflation in the US add uncertainties. The equity market will return to fundamentals, with short - term focus on positive performance expectations and medium - term continuation of domestic technology innovation theme [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Central bank's net capital withdrawal, policy focus on long - term bond yields, and weak economic fundamentals support long - term bond prices [2][3]. - **Copper**: Global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness, US tariff - induced demand front - loading, and reduced scrap copper exports boost copper prices, but high prices may suppress demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand lead to low - level operation [8][9]. - **Polysilicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand result in low - level operation [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: High production capacity, high inventory, and low - level spot prices are negative for lithium carbonate prices [13]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures**: - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio, hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Increase long positions in T2506 and TL2506 on dips [2] Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper**: - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish - biased trading approach; copper - using enterprises can buy for hedging on dips [4] - **Supply**: Codelco expects 2025 production to reach 137 - 140 million tons. Many companies have production changes in 2024 and plans for 2025 [5] - **Demand**: Q1 2025 domestic power grid data is strong, but some demand indicators show fluctuations [6][7] - **Inventory**: LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories have decreased [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2505 - C - 12000 and hold [8] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 16.04% year - on - year [8] - **Demand**: February 2025 polysilicon production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [9] - **Inventory**: As of March 21, 2025, social inventory is high [9] - **Polysilicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2505 - C - 47000 and hold [10] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [10] - **Demand**: February 2025 silicon wafer production decreased by 15.94% year - on - year [11] - **Inventory**: As of March 23, 2025, social inventory is high [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2505 - C - 90000 and hold [13] - **Supply**: February 2025 production capacity reached a 4 - year high, and production increased year - on - year [13] - **Inventory**: As of February 28, 2025, total inventory is at a high level [13]

策略早餐 品种：铝 日内观点：高位运行，运行区间：20800-21000 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19500-21500 参考策略：卖出 AL2505-P-19500 持有 核心逻辑： 1、社会库存方面，截至 3 月 27 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 80.1 万吨，较上周下降 3.10 万吨。去年同期库存为 86.3 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期 的最低位。 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.03.28） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 2、春节假期归来，下游陆续开工，需求有望回暖，提振铝价。 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：短期反弹 中期观点：承压运行 参考策略：热卷 05-10 跨期正套（多 HC2505、空 HC2510） 核心逻辑： 1、"金三银四"传统施工旺季支撑钢材整体消费季节性回升，为钢材基本面带来边际 改善并短期支撑钢价反弹，但目前下游建筑资金到位情况仍然不佳，螺纹钢消费量 245.32 万吨，环比+0.96%，农历同比-11.10%，对钢材整体消费产生拖累，五大品种钢材消费量 919.78 万吨，环比+1.41%，农历同比-4.71%。未来施工进 ...

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策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.03.26） 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：持有多 IH2504 空 IC2504 对冲组合谨慎、HO2504-C-2750 虚值看涨期权 核心逻辑： 1.月度主要经济数据、上市公司业绩陆续披露，市场将从此前的流动性、政策、风险偏 好驱动的估值逻辑逐步走向经济基本面驱动的业绩逻辑，后续关注估值与业绩的匹配程度。 2.政策支持扩内需方向。《政府工作报告》将"全方位扩大国内需求"位列 2025 年重 点任务首位，《提振消费专项行动方案》落地，可关注消费传统消费板块。财政部部长蓝佛 安表示，今年财政政策的着力点之一在于大力提振消费。 3.中美对弈关键窗口临近，美对华再加征关税担忧增加。二季度美国加码关税威胁可能 以及中国出口自然回落叠加，同时非贸易壁垒等问题加剧经济预期波动，压制风险偏好。 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 金融期货和期权 策略早餐 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：窄幅震荡，TS2406 运行区间[102.20,102.40] 中期观点：蓄力上涨 参考策略：T2506、TL2506 多单持有 核 ...

黑色金属 | 周报 2025 年 3 月 26 日 2022 投资咨询业务资格 年 11 月 13 日 证监许可【2011】1772 号 广金期货研究中心 黑色金属研究员 郑 航 从业资格号： F03101899 咨询资格号： Z0021211 联系电话： 1 / 25 020-88523420 钢材：板材下游景气，或支撑近月走强 核心观点 短期钢材基本面边际改善，尤其钢板材下游表现较好，但黑色产业链整 体压力仍存，中期来看钢材价格仍然承压： 核心观点 "金三银四"传统施工旺季支撑钢材整体消费季节性回升，为钢材基本 面带来边际改善并短期支撑钢价反弹，但目前下游建筑资金到位情况仍然不 佳，螺纹钢消费量 242.99 万吨，农历同比-12.78%，对钢材整体消费产生拖 累，五大品种钢材消费量 906.95 万吨，农历同比-5.55%。未来施工进展仍 存隐忧，钢材消费整体改善或不及往年，将导致钢材价格整体仍然承压。 钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大。铁矿方面，本周 45 港进口矿库存总量 14487.54 万吨，环比增加 67.48 万吨，库存仍处于高位。煤焦方面，样本 矿山精煤库存 372.67 万吨，环比-0.76% ...

策略早餐 养殖、畜牧及软商品板块 品种：生猪 日内观点：稳中偏弱 中期观点：3-4 月面临较大的供应压力 参考策略：卖出虚值看涨期权 核心逻辑： 1、供应方面，截至 2025 年 2 月，据钢联数据统计，规模场能繁母猪存栏量存栏量为 504.46 万头，环比微涨 0.05%，其中东北及西北地区波动不大，华北及华南大区微降，华东、 华中及西南大区窄幅上调。由于 2 月生猪市场整体下跌后维持低位震荡，但养殖端仍存在小 幅盈利，企业产能主动去化意愿较低，更多进行产能更新优化。短期来看，尽管猪价下跌导 致养殖端利润下降，但仔猪市场尚有支撑，因此养殖端未来去产能的动力仍然较小。 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.03.25） 商品期货和期权 2、需求方面，从屠宰端来说，据钢联数据统计，3 月 21 日当周屠宰开工率 26.31%，较 上一周有所上涨。由于学校陆续开学，企业开工逐步恢复，返程人员增加，需求有所提升， 但由于当前处于消费淡季，整体市场需求偏疲软，屠宰订单走货一般。短期看，尽管市场需 求有一定恢复预期，但市场难有明显利好提振，或将抑制企业开工上涨幅度。 3、3-4 月面临较大的供应压力，一方面规模场 2 月存在未 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong medium-term outlook for the stock index futures market, with a recommendation to hold bullish options and implement hedging strategies [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing support for domestic demand and consumption policies, highlighting initiatives from various government departments aimed at enhancing consumer capacity and stimulating consumption [1]. - Post the Two Sessions, the focus is on technology and consumption sectors, with a preference for consumer stocks benefiting from policy support, while technology stocks show internal divergence [1]. - In the bond futures market, the report suggests a stable short-term outlook for short-term bonds and identifies opportunities for long-term bonds to recover from oversold conditions [3]. - The report notes that the overall funding supply in the interbank market remains adequate, but high interest rates persist, impacting the bond market's performance [3]. - In the commodity futures market, particularly in the steel sector, the report indicates significant supply pressures due to high inventory levels and recovering production, which may lead to downward pressure on prices [5][6]. Summary by Sections Stock Index Futures - Daily view: Slightly strong oscillation - Medium-term view: Strong bias - Strategy: Hold bullish options and implement hedging [1]. Bond Futures - Daily view: Short-term bonds stable, focus on long-term bonds for recovery - Medium-term view: Wide oscillation expected - Strategy: Gradual opening of long-term bond trading windows [3]. Commodity Futures - Daily view: Weak oscillation in black and building materials sector - Medium-term view: Under pressure - Strategy: Profit-taking on certain options and temporary exit from others [5][6].

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 03 月 12 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 美元走软，油价低位反弹 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格上涨 周三(3 月 12 日)纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油 2025 年 4 月期货结算价每桶 67.68 美元，比前一交易日上涨 1.43 美元，涨 幅 2.16%，交易区间 66.15-67.88 美元；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油 2025 年 5 月期货结算价每桶 70.95 美元，比前一交易日上涨 1.39 美元， 涨幅 2.00%，交易区间 69.48-71.10 美元。 二、美元指数连续下跌 不断升温的贸易紧张局势将继续对市场构成压力，尽管美国通胀 放缓，ICE 美元指数在周三交易中上涨 0.2%，但本月迄今美元指数已 下跌 3.7%。美元走软使得以美元计价的大宗商品对使用其他货币的买 家来说更便宜，从而刺激需求。 三、美国对加拿大、墨西哥延迟加征关税 周四，美国总统特朗普根据一项北美贸易协定豁免了来自加拿大 和墨西哥的商品一个月，使其免受他本周实 ...