Guang Jin Qi Huo

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蛋白粕:季报:远期进口体量尚未定,多种情景推演防风险
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:55
蛋白粕 | 季报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 期货从业资格证号: F03113318 期货投资咨询证书: Z0018777 2025 年 9 月 23 日 远期进口体量尚未定,多种情景推演防风险 2025 年 1-9 月粕类油脂期货行情分析、展望: (一)美豆与豆粕 2025 年四季度供需与择时,或与 2018 四季度,有对比参考性。 2018 年 7 月中国对美豆 25%开始生效,美国 USDA 在月报和农户 MFP 补贴上迅速调整。直至 9 月,美国对中国出口大豆,累计为 0; 中国农业部等专家预估 18/19 全年大豆供给缺口约 500 万吨,但市场 企业预计缺口达 1500 万吨。豆粕在 9 月迎来上涨,约 15%。 广金期货研究中心 农产品研究员 苏航 2018 年 12 月初,中美领导人团队在阿根廷 G20 峰会见面,中方 签署了大豆采购协议,由国务院相关单位确定规模,至少 800 万吨。 当年,豆粕 1901 在 10 月末就开始下跌了,跌回 9 月初的位置。 最近,Trump 称 10 月底将与中方在韩国见面,计划明年访华…… 【若中方 25/26 采购美 ...
粕类油脂丨日报:加访华团与海关等部门会谈,两国关注对方意向-20250910
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 11:30
粕类油脂丨日报 s 2、据加拿大广播公司(CBC)报道,加拿大农业和农业食品部长西 斯·麦克唐纳当地时间 9 月 9 日,在加拿大马尼托巴省首府温尼伯参 加联邦和省级农业部长会议。会上他表示"加方正在讨论放宽对中国 电动汽车加征的关税";而油菜籽行业团体反映,生产商正遭受损失。 麦克唐纳在会后表示,加拿大联邦政府尚未直接获悉中国政府的具体 要求,但这是正在考虑的问题。 苏航 期货从业资格证号: 期货投资咨询证书: 3、Safras & Mercado:预计截至 9 月 5 日,巴西 2024/25 大豆已 售 84.1%(1.4454 亿吨),不及去同的 87.7%和五年均的 89.3%,前月 78.4%;2025/26 大豆预售 20.5%(3706 万吨),低于去同的 24.8%和五 年均的 29.2%,前月 16.8%。预计巴西 25/26 年度大豆播种面积环比 增 1.2%至 4821 万公顷,产量将创纪录达 1.8092 亿吨,较 24/25 年度 增 5.3%,前次预估 1.7988 亿吨,因单产预期上调至 3.771 吨/公顷。 预计巴西 2026 年大豆出口达 1.08 亿吨,2025 年大豆 ...
粕类油脂丨日报:乌克兰提升菜籽出口税,印度节日食用油需求大增-20250903
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 14:56
Report Core View - Ukraine has increased export taxes on soybeans and rapeseed, and the export tax will last until January 1, 2030, then decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [1] - Two cold fronts are expected to sweep across the United States this week, bringing scattered showers, and the temperature will drop again after the cold fronts pass. As of the week ending August 31, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than expected [1] - The possibility of La Nina occurring in Brazil in spring has increased, which may lead to drought in the south and affect soybean production. Brazilian farmers have sold less than 20% of the new-season soybeans, slower than in previous years [1] - In August, India's palm oil imports increased by 16% month-on-month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% to 355,000 tons, hitting the lowest level in six months [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports grew strongly in August, with different data sources showing growth rates of 30.53%, 15.37%, and 10.2% respectively [2] Summary by Directory Soybean and Rapeseed Meal and Oils - Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed, which will be adjusted in the future [1] - Cold fronts in the US may affect soybean growth, and the current good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans is lower than expected [1] - The possibility of La Nina in Brazil may affect soybean production, and Brazilian farmers are delaying soybean sales [1] Palm Oils - India's palm oil imports increased significantly in August, while soybean oil imports decreased. The total edible oil imports increased by 3.6% [2] - Indian traders predict that palm oil and soybean oil imports in September will remain at relatively high levels [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports showed strong growth in August [2]
主要品种策略早餐-20250827
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 03:18
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides investment analysis and strategies for various financial and commodity futures and options, including intraday and mid - term views, reference strategies, and core logics for each product [1][2][5]. - For financial futures, the stock index futures are expected to have high - level sideways consolidation and index differentiation in the short - term, with a wide - range shock in the medium - term. The treasury bond futures are expected to continue to rebound with long - term bonds being strong in the short - term and remain strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - For commodity futures, different sectors such as metals, black and building materials, livestock and soft commodities, and energy and chemicals have different trends and influencing factors. For example, copper in the metal sector is affected by factors like Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, supply and demand, and inventory [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: High - level sideways consolidation, index differentiation [1] - **Mid - term View**: Wide - range shock - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2509 cautiously and hold IO - 4300 - P put options for protection - **Core Logic**: Market trading volume has decreased but remains at a high level. Margin trading balance is stable and approaching 2.2 trillion yuan. Leverage funds continue to enter the market, and the trading sentiment of margin trading funds is heating up. The policy side forms multiple positive overlays, providing good support for the market [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Rebound continues, long - term bonds are strong - **Mid - term View**: Strong - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in TL2512 - **Core Logic**: The central bank's open - market operations turn to net withdrawal, but the previous monthly MLF renewal achieved a large - scale net injection. The inter - bank market liquidity remains abundant. The stock - bond seesaw effect may be further desensitized, and the economic recovery is slow, indicating that the bond market is difficult to switch from bull to bear [2][3]. Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - **Copper** - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate within the range of 79290 - 80100 (also 78500 - 80000 in another part) [5][51] - **Mid - term View**: Fluctuate within the range of 60000 - 90000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating operation idea - **Core Logic**: The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is high. Supply shows a tightening trend in some aspects, and demand is positive in some areas like China's power grid investment and global energy - storage battery shipments. However, the slowdown in US import demand may weaken the support for copper prices [6][7][51]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Intraday View**: Run strongly, within the range of 8600 - 8900 (also 8500 - 8800 in another part) [8][54] - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 8500 - 9500 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: Supply decreased year - on - year in July. Demand also decreased year - on - year in June. The inventory is at a high level in the past 7 years, but the "Industrial Silicon Industry Kunming Initiative" is expected to boost the price [8][9][54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Intraday View**: Run strongly, within the range of 50,000 - 53,000 - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 45,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: Supply decreased year - on - year in June. Demand decreased year - on - year in July. The inventory shows obvious oversupply, but the "anti - involution" expectation boosts the price [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum** - **Intraday View**: Run at a high level, within the range of 20600 - 20900 - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 19500 - 21000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2510 - P - 19300 - **Core Logic**: The supply - side reform in 2017 set a cap on China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the current production capacity increase space is limited. The social inventory is at the second - lowest level in the past 5 years, and the automobile market is performing well, which is beneficial to the aluminum price [13][14][59]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Intraday View**: Wide - range fluctuation, within the range of 75,000 - 85,000 - **Mid - term View**: Oscillate strongly, within the range of 70,000 - 100,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: The spot price has declined recently. Supply increased year - on - year in July, and the total inventory is at a high level within the year [15]. Black and Building Materials Sector - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Intraday View**: Short - term decline but limited downside space - **Mid - term View**: Lack of upward driving force - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold sold out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 - **Core Logic**: The inflection point of raw material supply and demand has appeared, and the policy - based production restriction is less than expected. However, the explicit inventory of steel products is at the lowest level in the past 5 years, so the downside space in the next 1 - 2 weeks is expected to be limited [17][18][61]. Livestock, Animal Husbandry, and Soft Commodities Sector - **Sugar** - **Intraday View**: Run weakly - **Mid - term View**: Strong bottom support (also oscillate weakly in another part) [20][21][63] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit long positions and wait and see - **Core Logic**: Production and exports in Brazil decreased in July. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to continue to increase production. In China, the domestic refined sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply is expected to be marginally looser [23][63]. - **Protein Meal** - **Intraday View**: Rapeseed meal 2601 is weaker than soybean meal 2601 - **Mid - term View**: Soybean meal 2601 will fluctuate sharply in August and September - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of shorting soybean oil 2601 and going long on palm oil 2601 - **Core Logic**: The average yields of US corn and soybeans are expected to reach record highs. The situation of US soybean exports to China, the harvest progress of Canadian rapeseed, and relevant policies all affect the market [33][34][64]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **Crude Oil** - **Intraday View**: There is upward space - **Mid - term View**: Under pressure - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil - **Core Logic**: OPEC + maintains the production - increase strategy in September. The supply of heavy - oil is still tight due to sanctions, but the supply from Venezuela may increase. The demand shows different trends in different regions and products, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the third - quarter end [40][41][67]. - **PVC** - **Intraday View**: Stabilize and rebound (also run weakly in another part) [42][70] - **Mid - term View**: Support at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on PVC - **Core Logic**: The cost of calcium carbide increases, the supply decreases due to equipment maintenance but may increase in the future. The demand is weak, and the inventory is currently accumulating but may decrease later [43][44][70].
主要品种策略早餐-20250826
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 14:33
Group 1: Financial Futures and Options - Stock Index Futures - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias, and the medium - term view is bullish. The global risk sentiment is boosted by the dovish stance of the Fed Chair at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and the market expects two rate cuts this year. The market volume is high, and policy measures are in place to boost domestic demand [1]. - Key Points: - Hold long positions in IF2509 and IO - 4300 - P put options for protection [1]. - Overseas, the Fed's possible rate cut in September boosts global risk sentiment and benefits the valuation of science - and - technology - related sectors [1]. - In terms of capital sentiment, market volume is high, margin trading balance is stable above 2.1 trillion, and the proportion of margin trading balance to market capitalization has risen to 2.30%. Leverage funds are actively entering the market. Equity ETFs have net inflows [1]. - Policy - wise, the State Council is promoting policies to expand domestic demand [1]. Group 2: Financial Futures and Options - Treasury Bond Futures - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a continued rebound, and the medium - term view is a rebound in the making. The bond market is expected to return to an upward trend in the long - term [2][3]. - Key Points: - Hold long positions in TL2512 [2]. - The central bank's MLF operation has led to a large - scale net injection, and the inter - bank market funds are abundant. Short - term interest rates have declined [3]. - The stock - bond seesaw effect is weakening. Although the equity market is strong in the short - term, the bond market is expected to rise in the long - term [3]. - Economic data in July showed a slowdown, indicating that the bond market is unlikely to shift from a bull to a bear market [3]. Group 3: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a range - bound movement between 79,290 and 80,100, and the medium - term view is a range - bound movement between 60,000 and 90,000. The price is expected to rise with some support factors [4][5]. - Key Points: - Adopt an operation idea of oscillating with a slight upward bias [5]. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September provides macro - level support for copper prices [4]. - The supply side is tightening, with some mines approaching export quotas and potential production cuts by refineries. However, some producers have different production trends [4]. - The demand side is positive, with an increase in global refined copper consumption, growth in China's power grid investment, and a significant increase in global energy - storage battery shipments [4]. Group 4: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Industrial Silicon - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday and medium - term views are both bullish. The price is expected to be strong [8]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea [8]. - In July, China's industrial silicon production decreased by 30.56% year - on - year [8]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level in the past seven years, which is a negative factor for prices [8]. - The "Kunming Initiative" in the industrial silicon industry aims to boost prices [9]. Group 5: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Polysilicon - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday and medium - term views are both bullish. The price is expected to be strong [10]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea [10]. - In June, China's polysilicon production decreased by 33.11% year - on - year [10]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of polysilicon increased week - on - week, indicating an obvious oversupply [12]. - The "anti - involution" expectation boosts polysilicon prices [13]. Group 6: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Aluminum - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is high - level operation, and the medium - term view is bullish. The price is supported by supply and demand factors [14]. - Key Points: - Sell AL2510 - P - 19300 put options [14]. - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity has limited room for growth after the 2017 supply - side reform [14]. - As of August 21, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at the second - lowest level in the past five years, which is positive for prices [14]. - China's automobile production and sales have increased year - on - year, which is beneficial for aluminum prices [14]. Group 7: Commodity Futures and Options - Metal and New Energy Materials - Lithium Carbonate - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is wide - range fluctuations, and the medium - term view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. The price is affected by supply, inventory, and market information [17]. - Key Points: - Adopt a bullish trading idea but operate cautiously [17][18]. - On August 25, the price of lithium carbonate declined for three consecutive days, but increased in the past 30 days [17]. - In July 2025, China's battery - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 51% year - on - year, and the total inventory is at a high level this year, which is negative for prices [17]. Group 8: Commodity Futures and Options - Black and Building Materials - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The short - term view is a decline with limited downside, and the medium - term view is a lack of upward momentum. The cost support for steel prices is weakening [19]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 [19]. - The supply of iron ore and coking coal is expected to increase, weakening the cost support for steel prices [19]. - Policy - based production restrictions are less than expected, and steel production is still high. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil has been accumulating, reducing the upward momentum [19][20]. Group 9: Commodity Futures and Options - Agriculture, Livestock, and Soft Commodities - Sugar - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is bearish, and the medium - term view is that there is strong support at the bottom. The global sugar supply and demand situation is complex [21]. - Key Points: - There is strong support at the bottom. The reference range for Zhengzhou sugar is (5,500, 5,900) [21]. - Brazil's sugar production and exports decreased in July. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is also expected to increase production [21]. - In China, the production of refined sugar is at a historical high, and the supply is expected to be more abundant with the listing of Inner Mongolia's beet sugar [21]. Group 10: Commodity Futures and Options - Agriculture, Livestock, and Soft Commodities - Protein Meal - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is that soybean meal 2601 will continue to oscillate in the range of [3,075, 3,175], and the medium - term view is that it will fluctuate significantly in August and September. The market is affected by the production of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed [22]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in soybean oil 2601 and long positions in palm oil 2601 [22]. - The average yield of US corn and soybeans is expected to reach a record high. The situation of US soybean exports to China needs attention [22][23]. - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is approaching, and the production is expected to increase significantly [24]. Group 11: Commodity Futures and Options - Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The short - term view is that there is upward potential, and the long - term view is that prices are under pressure. The oil market is affected by supply, demand, and geopolitical factors [25][27]. - Key Points: - Sell out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil [25]. - OPEC+ is maintaining its production increase strategy, and the supply of heavy - oil is still tight due to geopolitical factors. The US oil production growth is expected to slow down [26]. - The demand for gasoline in the US is seasonally declining, and the diesel demand is expected to improve. The inventory is expected to accumulate in the third quarter [27]. Group 12: Commodity Futures and Options - Energy and Chemicals - PVC - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The intraday view is a stable rebound, and the medium - term view is that there is support at the bottom. The PVC market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors [28]. - Key Points: - Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on PVC [28]. - The price of calcium carbide has increased due to reduced supply. The supply of PVC has decreased recently but is expected to increase in the future [28][29]. - The demand for PVC is weak, and the inventory is currently accumulating. However, the inventory is expected to decrease in the future, and the export may recover [29][30].
主要品种策略早餐-20250825
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:53
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The global risk sentiment is boosted by the Fed's dovish stance, and the A - share market shows positive signs in terms of funds and policies. The bond market is affected by factors such as capital liquidity, the stock - bond relationship, and economic fundamentals [1][3]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, nickel is expected to trade in a range, while industrial silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum are expected to show a relatively strong performance [4][6][12]. - **Black and Building Materials**: The prices of steel products are under pressure due to changes in raw material supply - demand and limited policy - driven production cuts [15][17]. - **Agricultural and Livestock Products**: The sugar market shows different trends at home and abroad, and the protein meal market is affected by factors such as crop yields and trade policies [18][20]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The LPG market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors, and the PVC market is influenced by cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors [24][27]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)**: - **Intraday View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias [1] - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2509 and buy IO - 4300 - P put options for protection - **Core Logic**: Dovish Fed stance, high market trading volume, and positive policies [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)**: - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate widely and wait for a rebound - **Medium - term View**: Accumulate strength for a rebound - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in TL2512 - **Core Logic**: Ample capital liquidity, the stock - bond relationship, and slow economic recovery [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options - **Nickel**: - **Intraday View**: Trade in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 - **Medium - term View**: Trade in the range of 115,000 - 132,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell N2509I - C - 124000 and NI2509 - P - 116000 - **Core Logic**: Complex supply - demand factors, including production in Indonesia, stainless - steel production, and battery demand [4][5] - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Intraday View**: Run strongly in the range of 8,700 - 9,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: Decreased production, decreased demand, high inventory, and industry initiatives [6][7] - **Polysilicon**: - **Intraday View**: Run strongly in the range of 50,000 - 53,000 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 45,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: Decreased production, decreased demand, high inventory, and "anti - involution" expectations [8][9][11] - **Aluminum**: - **Intraday View**: Trade at a high level in the range of 20,600 - 20,900 - **Medium - term View**: Run strongly in the range of 19,500 - 21,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2509 - P - 19300 put options - **Core Logic**: Limited production capacity increase, low inventory, and strong demand in the automotive market [12] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate widely in the range of 75,000 - 85,000 - **Medium - term View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias in the range of 70,000 - 100,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach - **Core Logic**: High supply, high inventory, and price fluctuations affected by industry information [13] Black and Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: - **Intraday View**: Decline in the short term but with limited downside space - **Medium - term View**: Lack of upward momentum - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 - **Core Logic**: Changes in raw material supply - demand and limited policy - driven production cuts [15][17] Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Sugar**: - **Intraday View**: Weak performance - **Medium - term View**: Strong support at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: The price has strong support at the bottom - **Core Logic**: Different trends at home and abroad, with potential supply increases in major producing countries [18] - **Protein Meal**: - **Intraday View**: The price of soybean meal 2601 will continue to oscillate in the range of [3075, 3175] - **Medium - term View**: The price of soybean meal 2601 will fluctuate sharply in August and September - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the short - soybean meal 2601 and long - rapeseed meal 2601 strategy; continue to hold the short - soybean oil 2601 and long - palm oil 2601 strategy - **Core Logic**: Crop yields in North America and trade policies between the US and China [20][22] Energy and Chemicals - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: - **Intraday View**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on PG2510 - **Core Logic**: Decreased supply, low demand, and rising costs in the short term, but an overall loose supply - demand pattern in the long term [24][25] - **PVC**: - **Intraday View**: Stabilize and rebound - **Medium - term View**: Supported at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options on PVC - **Core Logic**: Rising raw material costs, decreased supply, weak demand, high inventory, and potential export changes [27][28][29]
7月国际贸易消息频出,油料作物生长大致正常
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In July, there were frequent international trade news, and the growth of oilseed crops was generally normal. The soybean market was affected by US trade negotiations and domestic policies, while the rapeseed meal market was influenced by Canadian production adjustments and the resumption of Australian rapeseed imports [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review (6.30 - 7.29) - **External Market**: The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1011.25, with a decline of 1.49%; the December contract of US soybean meal closed at 279.4, with a decline of 3.12%; the July contract of ICE rapeseed closed at 723.1 CAD/ton, with an increase of 3.33% [7] - **Domestic Market**: The latest price of soybean meal 2509 was 2977, with an increase of 1.19%; the latest price of rapeseed meal 2509 was 2635, with an increase of 3.01% [7] II. Soybean Meal Market Overview 2.1 International Supply and Demand - **Trade Negotiations**: In July, the US was in a period of intensive trade negotiations. The US Treasury Secretary announced economic and trade talks with China in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The US has been negotiating "reciprocal tariffs" and multilateral trade frameworks with many countries [16] - **Crop Conditions**: As of July 27, the soybean flowering rate was 76%, the pod - setting rate was 41%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 70%. About 8% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought as of July 22 [17][18] - **Supply from South America**: Brazil's soybean supply is sufficient before September. Anec slightly lowered the estimated soybean exports in July to 12.11 million tons and raised the estimated soybean meal exports to 2.4 million tons. Argentina increased its 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 50.9 million tons [19] - **US Exports**: As of July 17, 2024/25 US soybean cumulative sales were 50.81 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.67 million tons. The 2025/26 US soybean weekly net export sales were 238,800 tons, lower than market expectations [19] 2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Trade Talks and Policies**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden at the end of July were undecided. In July, China lowered the import tariff on US soybeans back to 3%. August is a crucial month for US soybean production and exports to China [25] - **Price and Import**: On July 24, domestic soybean meal prices plummeted due to multiple factors. China's soybean imports in June reached a record high of 12.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. In the first six months of 2025, China's cumulative imports of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 7.5% year - on - year, while imports of US soybeans increased by 33% [25][26][27] III. Rapeseed Meal Market Overview 3.1 International Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Canadian Supply**: In July, the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture adjusted its 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 17.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.2% from the previous year. Exports are expected to be 6 million tons, a decrease of 36.8% from the previous year [35] - **Australian Supply**: Around July 18, Australia and China were close to reaching an agreement to allow Australia to export 15 - 25 tons of experimental rapeseed to China, restarting the trade after a 5 - year hiatus [38] - **Global Forecast**: The USDA's WASDE report in July estimated the global rapeseed production in 2025/26 to be 89.54 million tons [38] 3.2 Domestic Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Inventory and Price**: As of July 25, the basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was - 155 yuan/ton. The 2509 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was about 350 yuan/ton, and the 2601 spread was about 650 yuan/ton, returning to a reasonable level [51] - **Policy and Trade**: Since 2024, Sino - Canadian trade frictions have affected the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. In June 2025, China allowed the import of Uruguayan soybean meal and rapeseed meal [51][53]
本周美国与多国进行贸易谈判,印尼再提B50
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 14:11
Core Views - This week, the US is conducting trade negotiations with multiple countries, and Indonesia has proposed B50 again [1] - There are hot - spot reviews of domestic and foreign protein meal and oil futures markets, including soybean - rapeseed meal and oil, palm - based oil, and comprehensive aspects [1] Soybean - Rapeseed Meal and Oil - As of the week of July 15, about 7% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 9% in the previous week and 5% in the same period last year [2] Palm - Based Oil - Indonesia is researching to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and relevant research is expected to be completed by the end of the year. As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters [3] - Malaysia's August crude palm oil reference price is 3,864.12 ringgit per ton (about $910.28), a significant increase from July's 3,730.48 ringgit/ton, and the export tax will be raised from 8.5% in July to 9% [3] Comprehensive - On July 16, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Indonesia. Indonesia will increase purchases of US aircraft, energy (worth $15 billion) and agricultural products (worth $4.5 billion), and the US will reduce the tariff rate from the threatened 32% to 19%. The US may maintain the tariff rate set for Japan and may reach a trade agreement with India [4] - Indonesia is still negotiating the details of the trade agreement with the US. It has requested the US to exempt tariffs on cocoa, rubber, crude palm oil and nickel. All imported US goods except alcohol and pork will enjoy zero - tariff, and some US goods will be exempt from import quota regulations [5]
策略早餐:经纪业务投资咨询,资产管理风险管理-20250718
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 13:54
Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - A-shares and commodities continue to rise. In the medium term, the stock market fluctuates upward, and the bottom of commodities emerges [6]. - The dollar exchange rate rebounds this week, suppressing precious metals. However, in the medium term, the dollar's weakness is difficult to reverse, and gold oscillates and accumulates momentum [6]. - The economic data released this week shows that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter is better than expected, but the consumption growth rate in June declines, and investment has not yet exerted force [6]. - Non-ferrous metals are differentiated this week, with most experiencing corrections but overall remaining in a high-level oscillation [6]. - Black metals oscillate at a high level this week, but the rebound is not over [6]. - Nickel prices and stainless steel oscillate at a low level this week, and the market is still digesting inventory [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum operates at a high level, with the supply side providing strong support for prices [7]. - Alumina oscillates strongly in the short term and operates at a low level in the medium term [8]. - Aluminum alloy operates strongly in the short term and fluctuates within a range in the medium term [9]. - Finished steel prices oscillate strongly, and prices are expected to be strong from July to August [10]. Summaries by Category Macro Strategy - **Intraday View**: A-shares and commodities continue to rise; in the medium term, the stock market fluctuates upward, and the bottom of commodities emerges [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Gold can be observed or a small amount of gold call options can be bought as the bottom position; hold the bought IO2509-C-3950; hold the sold CU2509-P-75000 position; hold RB2510 or HC2510 long positions or call options; reduce the protective put options while the nickel spot inventory decreases [6]. - **Core Logic**: The dollar rebounds this week, suppressing precious metals. However, in the medium term, factors such as the expanding fiscal deficit and debt, tariff shocks, and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts make the dollar's weakness difficult to reverse [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Intraday View**: High-level operation, with the operating range of 20300 - 20600; in the medium term, high-level operation, with the operating range of 19200 - 21000 [7]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508-P-19300 [7]. - **Core Logic**: The supply-side reform in 2017 set the upper limit of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity at 45 million tons. As of May 2025, the operating capacity was 44.139 million tons, with limited room for capacity increase. The current inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [7]. Alumina - **Intraday View**: Oscillate strongly, with the operating range of 3050 - 3200; in the medium term, operate at a low level, with the operating range of 2700 - 3500 [8]. - **Reference Strategy**: Observe [8]. - **Core Logic**: In 2025, 17 million tons of alumina production capacity will be put into operation, with obvious supply pressure. The improvement in the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to drive an increase in alumina demand [8]. Aluminum Alloy - **Intraday View**: Operate strongly, with the operating range of 19800 - 20000; in the medium term, fluctuate within a range, with the operating range of 19000 - 20300 [9]. - **Reference Strategy**: Observe [9]. - **Core Logic**: The current inventory is at a high level within the year, and the general rise in non-ferrous metals boosts the price of aluminum alloy [9]. Finished Steel (RB, HC) - **Intraday View**: Prices oscillate strongly; from July to August, prices are expected to be strong [10]. - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the bought in-the-money call options of rebar RB2510-C-3000; continue to hold the sold out-of-the-money put options of rebar RB2510-P-2900; short the out-of-the-money call options of rebar RB2510-C-3300 in the short term [10]. - **Core Logic**: The pressure on the raw material inventory of steel is expected to be marginally relieved after mid-July, which may support the prices of furnace materials and the production cost of steel to stabilize. The current explicit inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil is low, and recent positive factors have boosted speculative sentiment [10].
股指期货策略早餐-20250716
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 08:48
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: The intraday view of stock index futures is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For treasury bond futures, both the intraday and medium - term views are bullish [1][2]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: For aluminum, it is expected to trade at a high level both intraday and in the medium - term. For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, the intraday price is expected to be volatile and strong, and the price is expected to be strong from July to August [4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IM2509 [1]. - **Core Logic**: The marginal slowdown of fundamental repair strengthens policy expectations. The government's strengthened long - cycle assessment of insurance funds is beneficial for the entry of incremental funds. Overseas, the phased settlement of tariff uncertainties has a limited impact on the equity market [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [3]. - **Core Logic**: During the tax period, the central bank's injection of medium - term liquidity supports the long - end bond market. The weak domestic fundamentals and low inflation strengthen the expectation of monetary easing. After the release of multiple negative news, the bond market maintains a rebound momentum [3]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials (Aluminum)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [4]. - **Core Logic**: Due to supply - side reforms, the increase in aluminum production capacity is limited. The current social inventory is at a five - year low, and the good performance of the automotive market is beneficial for aluminum prices [4]. - **Black and Building Materials (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold long positions in in - the - money call options RB2510 - C - 3000, short positions in out - of - the - money put options RB2510 - P - 2900, and short - term short positions in out - of - the - money call options RB2510 - C - 3300 [5]. - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of steel raw materials is expected to ease, which may support the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs. The low inventory of finished steel products and the emergence of multiple positive factors are expected to boost speculative demand [5].