Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday (May 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.56 per barrel, down $0.13 or 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.19 - $63.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.38 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.85 - $66 [1] - According to a news report from a Middle - Eastern country, Khamenei doubts whether the nuclear negotiation with the US can reach an agreement as Iran is reviewing the proposal for the fifth - round negotiation. If the agreement is reached and US sanctions on Iran are relaxed, the agreement between the two countries will increase Iran's daily oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels [2] - The International Energy Agency released its May "Oil Market Monthly Report" on Thursday. The report believes that economic headwinds and record - high sales of electric vehicles will reduce the average daily global oil demand growth to 650,000 barrels for the rest of 2025. At this rate, the average daily global oil demand growth will slow down from 990,000 barrels in the first quarter of this year [3] - Currently, the progress of the two negotiations is poor, and the trade tensions are temporarily relieved, so international oil prices are temporarily supported. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited, mainly due to Trump's uncertain tariff policy affecting the economy and OPEC+ maintaining the production - increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear agreement is reached, the pressure on the oil supply side will continue to increase. The oil consumption increments of major consumer countries during the summer oil consumption peak season may be affected by factors such as the sluggish economic recovery prospects and the substitution of new energy, and oil prices will still be under pressure [4]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.21） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：区间震荡，沪深 300 指数保持相对韧性 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：持有 IF2506 多单、多 IF2506 空 IM2506 对冲组合 核心逻辑： 1.中美关税缓和短期提振风险偏好，后续二阶段磋商仍是关键。指数位置看，市场经历 近 1 个月修复，当前主要指数已回到对等关税前水平，止盈情绪有所升温。参考历史规律， 贸易谈判不确定性仍存，特定行业关税方面，美国在钢铁、药品、半导体等领域仍有"战略 脱钩"的可能。利多兑现后，短期权益市场缺乏上行动能。 2.稳定和活跃资本市场政策接连出台，进一步优化 A 股市场投资生态。第三批险资长期 投资试点、公募基金管理费收取模式改革、上市公司并购重组新的安排等，均有利于为 A 股注入增量资金和改善市场活跃度。中短期而言，中低风险偏好的主动权益资金进一步加大 沪深 300 等权重行业配置或加大红利资产的配置。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2509 或 TL2509 多单持有 核心逻辑： 1.基本面看， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of stock index futures is range - bound with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience, and the medium - term view is bullish. For bond futures, the short - term view is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For copper, the short - term view is a 77000 - 78700 range fluctuation, and the medium - term view is a 66000 - 90000 range fluctuation. Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and be under pressure in the medium - term. Polysilicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and at a low level in the medium - term. Lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decline in the short - term and experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support in the medium - term [1][2][4][6][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF206 and short IM2506 - **Core Logic**: Sino - US tariff relaxation boosts short - term risk appetite, but trade negotiation uncertainties remain. Policy support for the capital market encourages medium - and low - risk - preference funds to increase allocations in weighted sectors such as the CSI 300 or dividend assets [1] Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Volatile rebound - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 - **Core Logic**: Weak domestic demand in April's inflation and financial data may lead to further monetary policy easing. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, short - term liquidity tightened [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate within the 77000 - 78700 range - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate within the 66000 - 90000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading approach - **Core Logic**: US restrictions on chip exports may drag down the US stock market. Kazakhstan's refined copper production declined in 2025. China's copper exports increased, but domestic copper demand in some sectors is expected to decline. Copper inventories show a mixed trend. Tariff trade wars and domestic supply - demand changes will affect copper prices [4][5] Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 8100 - 8300 range - **Medium - term View**: Be under pressure within the 7900 - 9000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2506 - C - 11000 until expiration and short the futures - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production declined, but demand declined more, and the inventory is at a high level, leading to a continued supply - surplus situation [6][8][9] Polysilicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 36500 - 37000 range - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the 35000 - 40000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2506 - C - 47000 - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production and demand both declined, and the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Continue to decline within the 60000 - 63000 range - **Medium - term View**: Experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support within the 59000 - 65000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 - **Core Logic**: The spot price is continuously falling. In April 2025, production increased, and the total inventory is at a high level, which is negative for the price [12]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Views - For aluminum, the intraday view is oscillating with an upward bias in the range of 20,000 - 20,300, and the medium - term view is high - level operation in the range of 19,200 - 21,000 [1]. - For steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), the short - term driving force has improved, but the steel price is still under pressure in the medium term [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Aluminum) - **View and Strategy** - Intraday view: Oscillating with an upward bias, operating range 20,000 - 20,300; Medium - term view: High - level operation, operating range 19,200 - 21,000. Reference strategy is to sell AL2507 - P - 19300 and hold [1]. - **Core Logic** - As of May 12, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 600,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week and lower than 745,000 tons in the same period last year, being at the lowest level in the past 5 years, which is favorable for aluminum prices [1]. - From January to April, automobile production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively, which is favorable for aluminum prices [1]. - The China - US tariff agreement boosts market sentiment and is favorable for aluminum prices [2]. Black and Building Materials Sector (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **View and Strategy** - Intraday view: Recent driving force has improved; Medium - term view: Steel prices are still under pressure. Reference strategies are to continue holding the "sell rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3450" strategy and temporarily reduce the position of the "buy rebar in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150" strategy [3]. - **Core Logic** - The China - US tariff negotiation has made substantial progress. The current tariff rate has dropped significantly from the previous 145% imposed by the US on China. Some foreign - trade factories may rush to fulfill export orders before the implementation of the 54% high - tariff in early July, driving a short - term increase in the demand for steel plates (such as hot - rolled coil), which is conducive to the stabilization and rebound of steel prices [3]. - The overall inventory pressure of steel raw materials is still large. The furnace material price and steel production cost are expected to be under pressure in the medium term. For iron ore, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports this week was 14.34088 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%, and the low - grade tradable inventory at ports is at a 5 - year high. The Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea will be put into production this year, with about 60 million tons of iron ore to enter the market, and the supply pressure is difficult to digest. The sample mine coking coal inventory is 390,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.90% and a year - on - year increase of 50.90%. The coking coal inventory of coal washing plants is 197,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.75% and a year - on - year increase of 30.95%, remaining at the highest level in the past 5 years. The inventory pressure of furnace materials may further translate into an incremental supply of finished steel [4]. - The overall downstream demand for steel is average. For steel plates, under the impact of US tariff increases, not only are the profits of the global manufacturing industry damaged, but it is also expected to gradually impact global consumption. The negative impact on export orders for industrial products such as steel plate downstream has gradually emerged, as shown by the decline in the new order index of the manufacturing PMI in April, indicating that the growth of domestic demand for steel plates cannot fully offset the decline in external demand. For building materials, the funds for downstream construction projects are still in short supply, and the construction progress is slow, resulting in weak consumption of construction steel. The weekly consumption of rebar last week was 2.139 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 18.32%. The weak demand for building materials is the main reason for the overall weaker consumption of the five major steel products compared to previous years. Under the background of supply - demand pressure, the driving force for the continuous upward movement of steel prices is insufficient, and one can sell out - of - the - money call options on rebar to earn option time - value income [5].

Core View - High tariffs still pose a threat to copper prices, and the market sentiment will improve after the tariff risk decreases. The tight supply and demand of copper concentrate and scrap copper are still the main factors boosting copper prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of decreased copper demand when the copper market gradually enters the off - season [2][5] Market Overview - On May 15, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,900 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 79,090 yuan/ton and a minimum of 77,860 yuan/ton, closing at 77,870 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%. The trading volume for the day was 110,000 lots, with a reduction of 2,000 lots. The open interest was 187,000 lots, a reduction of 7,000 lots [3] Fundamental Situation Macroeconomic Aspect - Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson expects tariffs to slow the economy, and the inflation outlook is unclear [3] Supply Aspect - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports in the current week was 897,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared to April 25. The TC dropped to 44 dollars/ton [3] Demand Aspect - In April 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 215,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.46% and a year - on - year increase of 4.97%. The domestic electrolytic copper foil production was 100,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%, including 39,300 tons of electronic circuit copper foil and 60,900 tons of lithium - ion copper foil. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper foil production in May will be 99,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. In April, the domestic copper tube production was 201,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,100 tons with an increase rate of 4.16%, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.27%, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. It is expected that the copper tube production in May will decrease to about 192,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be 83.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85%. In April, the actual production of domestic recycled copper rods was 203,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11% and a year - on - year increase of 1.81% [4] Inventory Aspect - On May 15, LME copper inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,650 tons, and the SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 10,466 tons to 60,535 tons [4] Future Outlook - After the tariff risk decreases, the market sentiment will improve. The tight supply and demand of copper concentrate and scrap copper are still the main factors boosting copper prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of decreased copper demand when the copper market gradually enters the off - season [5]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 金融期货和期权 （2025.05.14） 参考策略：持有 IF2506 多单、多 IF206 空 IM2506 对冲组合 核心逻辑： 1.中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，双方共同发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，达成磋 商机制，成果高于预期，不过利多消息基本被市场消化，短期扰动逐步淡化。 2.市场重回基本面定价逻辑，国内政策托举有助稳定市场预期。"一行一局一会"再出 政策组合拳，措施密集且针对性强。央行推出"数量+价格+结构"组合，"降准降息"释放 流动性、再贷款工具定向发力提质增效；金融监管总局推出稳楼市、稳股市、稳外贸等八项 增量政策；证监会围绕稳定和活跃资本市场强调全力支持中央汇金发挥类平准基金作用、深 化双创改革发展新质生产力、引导长期资金入市等。 3.证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，督促行业从"重规模"向"重回 报"转变，或对 A 股市场生态产生中长期影响，中低风险偏好的主动权益资金进一步加大沪 深 300 等权重行业配置或加大红利资产的配置。 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：区间震荡，沪深 300 指数相对强势 中期观点：蓄力上涨 1.中美经贸 ...

Group 1: Core Views - On May 13, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.67 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.78% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.65 - $63.9 [1] - The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.63 per barrel, up $1.67 or 2.57% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.63 - $66.81 [1] - Sino - US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs; both sides suspended the implementation of 24% of relevant tariffs [2] - Geopolitical risks have weakened. If sanctions on Iran are eased, oil exports will increase. Hamas is ready to negotiate a cease - fire, and there is a possibility of further progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [3] - Affected by the optimistic outlook of trade negotiations and the expected shortage of heavy crude oil supply, oil prices are running strongly. A double - bottom pattern has formed, attracting buying sentiment. However, the continuous upward space for oil prices is limited due to OPEC+ production increases and Trump's low - oil - price policy. In the second quarter, oil prices will fluctuate greatly due to Trump administration's uncertain policy adjustments. Near the summer oil consumption peak season, considering factors such as the sluggish economic recovery outlook and new energy substitution, oil prices may decline [4]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On May 12, 2025, the settlement price of the June 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.95 per barrel, up $0.93 or 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.02 - $63.61. The settlement price of the July 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.96 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $66.4 [1] - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks have made substantial progress, significantly reducing bilateral tariff levels. The US has cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China has correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China has also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs [2] - Attention is paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. Iranian sanctions may ease, and oil exports will increase. Hamas has stated its readiness to participate in negotiations for a comprehensive and sustainable cease - fire agreement. There is also a possibility of further progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening the impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices [3] - Affected by the optimistic outlook of trade negotiations and the expected shortage of heavy crude oil supply resources, oil prices are running strongly. Currently, oil prices have formed a double bottom, attracting some buying sentiment. However, the continuous upward space for oil prices is limited, mainly due to OPEC+ production increases and Trump's low - oil - price policy. In the second quarter, oil prices will still fluctuate greatly, mainly due to the uncertain policy adjustments of the Trump administration. Near the summer peak oil consumption season, considering factors such as the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices still have room to decline [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - On May 12, 2025, WTI June 2025 futures settled at $61.95/barrel, up 1.52%, trading between $61.02 - $63.61. Brent July 2025 futures settled at $64.96/barrel, up 1.64%, trading between $63.88 - $66.4 [1] Trade Negotiations - Sino - US trade talks made progress, with both sides cancelling 91% of relevant tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs [2] Geopolitical Situation - Iran sanctions may ease, increasing oil exports. Hamas is ready for cease - fire talks, and there's potential progress in Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening geopolitical impact on oil prices [3] Future Outlook - Oil prices are strong due to trade optimism and supply concerns but have limited upward space due to OPEC+ output and Trump's policy. Second - quarter prices will be volatile, and there's a risk of decline near summer [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report From May 6th to May 9th, the PVC futures price hit a new low for the year. In May, the PVC industry faces pressure from a decrease in maintenance volume and the commissioning of new devices. The supply side is unlikely to see significant positive factors, while the demand side is significantly affected by the real estate sector, with weak domestic orders and uncertain exports. The macro - policy stimulus is limited. Overall, PVC lacks a clear upward driving force and is expected to operate at the bottom [2][44]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review From May 6th to May 9th, the PVC futures price hit a new low for the year. The price center of V2509 gradually declined from 4,950 yuan/ton to around 4,800 yuan/ton. As of the close on May 9th, V2509 closed at 4,805 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.54%. The weekly trading volume was 2.93 million lots, a net increase of 0.99 million lots compared to the previous period, and the open interest was 1.08 million lots, a net increase of 0.19 million lots. In the spot market, prices continued to decline, and trading remained cautious and the atmosphere was light. As of May 9th, the price of SG - 5 PVC in East China was 4,680 yuan/ton, a 2.09% decrease compared to before the Labor Day holiday [2][5]. 2. Supply Aspect As of May 9th, the weekly operating rate of the PVC industry was 80.34%, a 1.01 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous period. The weekly output was 467,300 tons, a 0.96% increase compared to the previous period. New PVC devices with a total annual production capacity of 1.7 million tons are planned to be commissioned from May to July [6][8]. 3. Demand Aspect - **Order Receiving of PVC Producers Weakened**: As of May 9th, the weekly pre - sale order volume of PVC producers was 520,800 tons, a 10.79% decrease compared to the previous week [12]. - **Post - holiday Operating Rate of Downstream Products Rebounded**: As of May 9th, the comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream factories was 45.99%, a 2.05 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous week. However, downstream orders were poor, and procurement was mainly for rigid demand [17]. - **Uncertainty in Future PVC Exports**: Affected by India's anti - dumping policy on imported PVC, future Chinese PVC exports are uncertain. Attention should also be paid to the possibility of the extension of India's BIS policy at the end of June [18]. - **Stabilization of Commercial Housing Sales**: In the week of May 11th, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.6141 million square meters, a 3.57% increase compared to the previous period. The real estate sales market shows signs of stabilizing [20]. 4. Cost Aspect - **Stable Calcium Carbide Price**: As of May 9th, the calcium carbide price in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 2,550 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. Due to power cost and maintenance factors, the supply is unstable, which is conducive to price stability [24]. - **Weakening Ethylene Price**: As of May 9th, the Northeast Asian ethylene price was 781 US dollars/ton, a 1.26% decrease compared to the previous week. Overseas ethylene producers maintain high - load operation, the market supply is loose, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [25]. 5. Inventory Aspect As of May 9th, the weekly social inventory of domestic PVC was 409,800 tons, a 1.54% increase compared to the previous period, mainly due to the decrease in the post - holiday procurement willingness of the mid - and downstream [28]. 6. Spread Aspect - **Strengthening of PVC Basis**: The basis between the near - term spot and the V2509 contract was in the range of [- 170, - 100] [39]. - **Slight Rebound of the 9 - 1 Spread**: As of May 9th, the PVC 9 - 1 spread was - 109 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase compared to before the Labor Day holiday [40]. 7. Conclusion In May, the PVC industry faces pressure from a decrease in maintenance volume and the commissioning of new devices. The supply side is unlikely to see significant positive factors, while the demand side is significantly affected by the real estate sector, with weak domestic orders and uncertain exports. The macro - policy stimulus is limited. Overall, PVC lacks a clear upward driving force and is expected to operate at the bottom [44].

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.09） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 黑色及建材板块 品 种 ： 铝 日内观点：窄幅波动，运行区间：19400-19700 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19200-21000 参考策略：卖出 AL2507-P-19300 持有 核心逻辑： ①社会库存方面，截至 5 月 6 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 63.7 万吨，较上周增加 2.40 万吨。去年同期库存为 77.6 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期 最低位。库存持续持续处于低位，利好铝价。 ②1—3 月，汽车产销分别完成 756.1 万辆和 747 万辆，同比分别增长 14.5% 和 11.2%。汽车市场表现向好，利好铝价。 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：钢价渐进式下跌 中期观点：钢价承压运行 参考策略： 1、持有卖出螺纹钢看涨期权 RB2510-C-3450 2、持有买入螺纹钢实值看跌期权 RB2510-P-3150 核心逻辑： 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略早餐 1、钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大，预计炉料价格和钢材生产成本中期将承压。铁矿方 面，本周 45 座港口进口铁矿库存 1 ...