Group 1: Copper - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Copper prices show strong resilience due to US tariff policies despite the domestic market entering the off - season. There are concerns about supply due to the shutdown of the Kamoa copper mine [1] - Summary: - Intraday View: Fluctuate between 77,500 - 79,000 [1] - Medium - term View: Fluctuate between 66,000 - 90,000 [1] - Reference Strategy: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - Core Logic: Macro - Trump postponed EU tariffs, increasing market risk appetite; Supply - LME available inventory dropped to a one - year low, and the Kakula copper mine in Congo stopped production; Demand - US tariff policy boosted import demand, while domestic downstream demand declined; Inventory - LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased [1] Group 2: Protein Meal - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The trend of soybean meal being stronger in the far - term than the near - term is weakening. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options on near - term soybean meal contracts and holding the "long soybean oil 2509 - short palm oil 2509" position [4][6] - Summary: - Intraday View: Soybean and rapeseed meal continue to fluctuate widely [2] - Medium - term View: The far - strong and near - weak trend of soybean meal weakens [4] - Reference Strategy: Sell the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2509 - P - 2850 [4] - Core Logic: As of May 27, the basis of soybean meal spot - 09 was negative. There may be positive factors from US soybean shipments and weather speculation. Domestic soybean meal has the characteristic of "not following the rise of the external market". The US biodiesel policy and RVO obligations have uncertainties. South American soybean production is finalized, and the focus shifts to North America. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, while Ukrainian rapeseed production is expected to decline [4][5][6] Group 3: Petroleum Asphalt - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In the short term, asphalt prices face upward pressure due to factors such as rainfall and funds. In the long term, with the increase in supply and weak demand, if oil prices decline, asphalt prices are expected to follow a weak trend [8][10] - Summary: - Intraday View: Operate under pressure [7] - Medium - term View: Oscillate weakly [7] - Reference Strategy: Sell at high prices [8] - Core Logic: Supply - Local refineries are in a loss - making state, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has declined. Production is expected to increase in May. Demand - Rainfall in some areas and poor project funds have led to weak demand. Inventory - Asphalt plant inventory has decreased, while social inventory has increased. Cost - Oil price fluctuations are large, and there is support from raw material costs [8][9]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.28） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡稍强 中期观点：蓄力上涨 参考策略：持有 IF2506 多单、多 IF2506 空 IM2506 对冲组合 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：窄幅震荡，TS2509 运行区间[102.30,202.50] 中期观点：偏强 参考策略：T2509 或 TL2509 多单持有 1 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑： 1.海外市场方面，美国总统特朗普表示，同意将对欧盟征收 50%关税的最后期 限延长至 7 月 9 日，欧美"关税战"缓和，美元指数止跌回升，欧美权益市场集体 反弹，有助风险情绪回归。 2.国内方面，稳定和活跃资本市场政策接连出台，进一步优化 A 股市场投资生 态。险资长期投资试点、公募基金管理费收取模式改革、上市公司并购重组新的安 排等，均有利于为 A 股注入增量资金和改善市场活跃度。 3.近期风格切换较为频繁，大盘与小盘轮番占优，市场行情轮动较快，缺乏持 续上涨的主线机会。同时，市场成交额尚未出现明显放量，投资者情绪相对谨慎。 短期内，市场或仍维持震荡格局，但在国内 ...

策略早餐 商品期货和期权 养殖、畜牧及软商品板块 品种：生猪 日内观点：偏弱运行 中期观点：宽幅震荡 参考策略：卖出虚值看跌期权 核心逻辑： 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.27） 1、供应方面，从生猪出栏体重来看，据钢联数据统计，截至 5 月 23 日，当 周全国生猪出栏均重为 124.13kg，与上一周基本持平。当周猪价波动有限，规模场 难有明显降重出猪操作。同时，由于标肥价差倒挂明显，养殖端多意向出栏大体重 猪源，生猪出栏均重仍维持高位，处于历史较高位置。随着气温不断升高，大猪价 格或将快速下降，养殖端出栏大猪的节奏或将继续加快，未来存在集中出栏的可能， 需持续关注养殖端出栏均重的变化情况，判断集中抛售的节点。 2、需求方面，从冻品库容率方面，据钢联数据统计，5 月 23 日当周国内重 点屠宰企业的冻品库容率为 17.28%，与上一周持平。当前由于需求表现疲软，冻品 市场需求暂未改善，出库维持缓慢节奏。而部分屠宰企业现品销售困难，存在被动 分割入库的情况，综合导致当周冻品库容率整体变化不大。后续需关注标猪价格的 变化对于屠宰端分割入库的影响，若价格大幅下跌，屠宰端的投机性需求或将提升， 对于猪价底部 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.23） 商品期货和期权 品 种 ： 铝 日内观点：高位震荡，运行区间：20000-20300 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19200-21000 参考策略：卖出 AL2507-P-19300 持有 核心逻辑： ①社会库存方面，截至 5 月 19 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 58.6 万吨，较上周增加 0.60 万吨。去年同期库存为 76.9 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期 的最低位。库存持续处于低位，利好铝价。 ②1-4 月，汽车产销分别完成 1017.5 万辆和 1006 万辆，同比分别增长 12.9% 和 10.8%。汽车市场表现向好，利好铝价。 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：偏弱运行 中期观点：钢价整体承压 参考策略：继续卖出螺纹钢 RB2510 看涨期权（行权价 3300-3450） 核心逻辑： 1、钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大，预计炉料价格和钢材生产成本中期将承压。铁矿方 面，本周 45 座港口进口铁矿库存 14055.63 万吨，环比-0.78%，港口可贸易库存低品位矿处 于近 5 年同期高位，且今年几内亚西芒杜铁矿 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on May 21, the July 2025 WTI (after contract roll) dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel, a decline of 0.74%; the July 2025 Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel, a decrease of 0.72% [1] - The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held in Rome on May 23. The market is skeptical about whether the US and Iran can reach a nuclear deal. Also, Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks break down [2] - For the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories increased to 443.2 million barrels, still 6% lower than the five - year average. The unexpected inventory growth contrasts with market expectations [3] - Currently, the two negotiations are progressing poorly, but trade tensions are temporarily eased, providing short - term support for international oil prices. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited due to Trump's uncertain tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, oil supply pressure will increase. Oil prices will still face pressure considering factors like a weak economic recovery outlook and new energy substitution [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Oil Price Performance - As of May 21, 2025, the July WTI dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel with a 0.74% decline, and the July Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel with a 0.72% decrease [1] Negotiation Situation - The fifth round of Iran - US nuclear negotiations is scheduled for May 23 in Rome. Market doubts the possibility of a deal, and Israel may strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks fail [2] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories rose to 443.2 million barrels, 6% lower than the five - year average, contrary to market expectations of a decrease [3] Market Outlook - Short - term oil prices are supported by eased trade tensions but have limited upside due to Trump's tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase. Long - term, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, supply pressure will grow, and oil prices will be pressured by factors such as a weak economic recovery and new energy substitution [4]

Core View - On May 22, 2025, the surge in US Treasury yields pressured copper prices [2] Market Overview - On May 22, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,010 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 78,060 yuan/ton and a low of 77,730 yuan/ton, closing at 77,920 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The trading volume was 61,000 lots, with a reduction of 10,000 lots in positions. The open interest was 153,000 lots, also with a reduction of 10,000 lots [3] Fundamental Situation Macroeconomic Aspect - The US experienced a triple sell - off in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, with the 30 - year US Treasury yield rising above 5% [4] Supply Aspect - In April 2025, China's imports of copper scrap showed a "month - on - month recovery and year - on - year contraction" trend, with a monthly import volume of 204,700 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month but down 9.46% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative import was 777,000 tons, down 0.81% year - on - year [4] - US exports of copper scrap to China showed a "double decline" in March - April. In March, the export volume was 225,000 tons (down 28.41% month - on - month and 51.51% year - on - year), and its share in the Chinese market dropped to 11.85%, ranking second. In April, although it increased slightly by 4.98% month - on - month to 23,600 tons, it was still down 43.98% year - on - year, and its share further shrank to 11.52%, dropping to third place [4] - Japan's exports to China reached 32,700 tons in April, up 21.02% month - on - month and 13.78% year - on - year, ranking first with a 15.96% share. Thailand's exports were 25,000 tons, up 26.9% month - on - month and 60.98% year - on - year, becoming the second - largest supplier [4] Demand Aspect - In April 2025, China's exports of copper strips were 10,741 tons, up 1.87% month - on - month and 19.84% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative exports were 39,166 tons, up 6.86% year - on - year [4] Inventory Aspect - On May 22, LME copper inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 166,525 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons [5] Future Outlook - The front - loading of US import trade demand led to the continuous transfer of LME and SHFE copper to COMEX, which boosted copper prices. However, the negative impact of the consumption off - season on copper prices should be watched out for [6]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.22） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：77000-78700 区间波动 中期观点：66000-90000 区间波动 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 供给方面，智利铜矿巨头安托法加斯塔（Antofagasta）与冶炼厂的年中谈判可能以 0 加工费（TC/RCs）为起点。艾芬豪宣布，目前该矿铜资源总量为 937 万吨，较 2023 年 11 月估算的 500 万吨增长 89%。中国 2025 年 4 月精炼铜（电解铜）产量为 125.4 万吨，同比 增加 9%；1-4 月累计产量为 478.1 万吨，同比增加 5.6%。中国 4 月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量 为 292.44 万吨，比上升 22.20%，同比增长 25.62%。尽管 4 月有冶炼厂有检修计划， 但华东新厂投产西南某厂提产，炼厂废铜、阳极板储备充足，硫酸价格仍 处高位弥补亏损，以及港口铜精矿库存增加支撑生产，使得 4 月铜产量环 比小增。进入 5 月，SMM 统计，有 5 家冶炼厂有检修计划，但 4 月检修 的冶炼厂恢复正常生产，复产的量甚至要多于检修影响量。此外，由于目 前港 ...

s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 粕类油脂丨日报 F03113318 Z0018777 2024 年 5 月 21 日 美豆播种迅速，马棕油 5 月大概率增产 近日，国内外蛋白粕与油脂期货市场行情热点回顾： （一）大豆系与菜籽系粕类油脂 1、USDA 每周作物生长报告显示，截至 5 月 18 日当周，美国大豆 种植率为 66%，高于市场预期的 65%，此前一周为 48%，去年同期为 50%，五年均值为 53%；大豆出苗率为 34%，上一周为 17%，上年同期 为 25%，五年均值为 23%。 广金期货研究中心 农产品研究员 苏航 2、 饲料行业信息网：近期部分地区进口大豆通关时间缩短至 8~15 天，随着进口大豆集中到港入厂，预计本周油厂大豆压榨量继续 回升，至 225 万吨。 期货从业资格证号： 3、World Weather Inc.:5 月 19 日，机构预计未来 1-2W，美产区 均将有降雨惠及，且俄亥俄河下游、Delta 三角洲北部和田纳西河流 域部分区域仍偏湿;温度方面，预计本周美中部温度将大幅下滑，下 周虽或有所回暖但不会偏高。 期货投资咨询证书： 4、Profa ...

Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday (May 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.56 per barrel, down $0.13 or 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.19 - $63.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.38 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.85 - $66 [1] - According to a news report from a Middle - Eastern country, Khamenei doubts whether the nuclear negotiation with the US can reach an agreement as Iran is reviewing the proposal for the fifth - round negotiation. If the agreement is reached and US sanctions on Iran are relaxed, the agreement between the two countries will increase Iran's daily oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels [2] - The International Energy Agency released its May "Oil Market Monthly Report" on Thursday. The report believes that economic headwinds and record - high sales of electric vehicles will reduce the average daily global oil demand growth to 650,000 barrels for the rest of 2025. At this rate, the average daily global oil demand growth will slow down from 990,000 barrels in the first quarter of this year [3] - Currently, the progress of the two negotiations is poor, and the trade tensions are temporarily relieved, so international oil prices are temporarily supported. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited, mainly due to Trump's uncertain tariff policy affecting the economy and OPEC+ maintaining the production - increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear agreement is reached, the pressure on the oil supply side will continue to increase. The oil consumption increments of major consumer countries during the summer oil consumption peak season may be affected by factors such as the sluggish economic recovery prospects and the substitution of new energy, and oil prices will still be under pressure [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Mid - term outlook is bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Mid - term outlook is bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Mid - term steel prices are under pressure [4] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: In the short - term, the equity market lacks upward momentum after the positive news of Sino - US tariff relaxation is realized, but policies are favorable for the A - share market in the medium and short - term, and funds may increase the allocation of weighted sectors such as CSI 300 [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to weak economic data, loose monetary policy expectations, improved liquidity, and upcoming deposit rate cuts, the bond market is expected to be bullish [2][3] - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Although short - term demand for steel products has improved, high raw material inventory and weak downstream demand will put pressure on steel prices in the medium term [4][5] 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Intraday View**: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience [1] - **Mid - term View**: Bullish [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF2506 and short IM2506 [1] - **Core Logic**: Sino - US tariff relaxation boosts short - term risk appetite, but there is still uncertainty in trade negotiations; policies to stabilize and activate the capital market are beneficial for the A - share market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [2] - **Intraday View**: Bullish with a sideways trend [2] - **Mid - term View**: Bullish [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2] - **Core Logic**: Weak economic data in April indicates weak domestic demand, leading to expectations of further monetary policy easing; improved liquidity and upcoming deposit rate cuts are favorable for the bond market [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil [4] - **Intraday View**: Short - term drivers are improving [4] - **Mid - term View**: Steel prices are under pressure [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to sell call options on rebar RB2510 (strike price: 3300 - 3450) [4] - **Core Logic**: Short - term demand for steel products has increased due to Sino - US tariff negotiations, but high raw material inventory and weak downstream demand will limit the upward movement of steel prices [4][5]