策略早餐 商品期货和期权 养殖、畜牧及软商品板块 品种：生猪 日内观点：偏弱运行 中期观点：宽幅震荡 参考策略：卖出虚值看跌期权 核心逻辑： 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.27） 1、供应方面，从生猪出栏体重来看，据钢联数据统计，截至 5 月 23 日，当 周全国生猪出栏均重为 124.13kg，与上一周基本持平。当周猪价波动有限，规模场 难有明显降重出猪操作。同时，由于标肥价差倒挂明显，养殖端多意向出栏大体重 猪源，生猪出栏均重仍维持高位，处于历史较高位置。随着气温不断升高，大猪价 格或将快速下降，养殖端出栏大猪的节奏或将继续加快，未来存在集中出栏的可能， 需持续关注养殖端出栏均重的变化情况，判断集中抛售的节点。 2、需求方面，从冻品库容率方面，据钢联数据统计，5 月 23 日当周国内重 点屠宰企业的冻品库容率为 17.28%，与上一周持平。当前由于需求表现疲软，冻品 市场需求暂未改善，出库维持缓慢节奏。而部分屠宰企业现品销售困难，存在被动 分割入库的情况，综合导致当周冻品库容率整体变化不大。后续需关注标猪价格的 变化对于屠宰端分割入库的影响，若价格大幅下跌，屠宰端的投机性需求或将提升， 对于猪价底部 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.23） 商品期货和期权 品 种 ： 铝 日内观点：高位震荡，运行区间：20000-20300 中期观点：高位运行，运行区间：19200-21000 参考策略：卖出 AL2507-P-19300 持有 核心逻辑： ①社会库存方面，截至 5 月 19 日，SMM 统计的 5 地电解铝社会库存为 58.6 万吨，较上周增加 0.60 万吨。去年同期库存为 76.9 万吨。当前库存处于 5 年同期 的最低位。库存持续处于低位，利好铝价。 ②1-4 月，汽车产销分别完成 1017.5 万辆和 1006 万辆，同比分别增长 12.9% 和 10.8%。汽车市场表现向好，利好铝价。 黑色及建材板块 品种：螺纹钢、热轧卷板 日内观点：偏弱运行 中期观点：钢价整体承压 参考策略：继续卖出螺纹钢 RB2510 看涨期权（行权价 3300-3450） 核心逻辑： 1、钢材原料库存整体压力仍较大，预计炉料价格和钢材生产成本中期将承压。铁矿方 面，本周 45 座港口进口铁矿库存 14055.63 万吨，环比-0.78%，港口可贸易库存低品位矿处 于近 5 年同期高位，且今年几内亚西芒杜铁矿 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on May 21, the July 2025 WTI (after contract roll) dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel, a decline of 0.74%; the July 2025 Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel, a decrease of 0.72% [1] - The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held in Rome on May 23. The market is skeptical about whether the US and Iran can reach a nuclear deal. Also, Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks break down [2] - For the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories increased to 443.2 million barrels, still 6% lower than the five - year average. The unexpected inventory growth contrasts with market expectations [3] - Currently, the two negotiations are progressing poorly, but trade tensions are temporarily eased, providing short - term support for international oil prices. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited due to Trump's uncertain tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, oil supply pressure will increase. Oil prices will still face pressure considering factors like a weak economic recovery outlook and new energy substitution [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Oil Price Performance - As of May 21, 2025, the July WTI dropped by $0.46 to $61.57 per barrel with a 0.74% decline, and the July Brent crude fell by $0.47 to $64.91 per barrel with a 0.72% decrease [1] Negotiation Situation - The fifth round of Iran - US nuclear negotiations is scheduled for May 23 in Rome. Market doubts the possibility of a deal, and Israel may strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the talks fail [2] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, US commercial crude inventories rose to 443.2 million barrels, 6% lower than the five - year average, contrary to market expectations of a decrease [3] Market Outlook - Short - term oil prices are supported by eased trade tensions but have limited upside due to Trump's tariff policies and OPEC+'s production increase. Long - term, if the Iran nuclear deal is reached, supply pressure will grow, and oil prices will be pressured by factors such as a weak economic recovery and new energy substitution [4]

有色金属丨日报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 有色金属研究员：薛丽冰 联系电话：020-88523420 从业资格号：F03090983 投资咨询号：Z0016886 二、基本面情况 宏观方面，美国出现股债汇三杀，30 年期美债收益率升破 5%。 供给方面，2025 年 4 月我国铜废料及碎料进口呈现"环比回暖、 同比收缩"的态势，单月进口量 20.47 万吨，环比增长 7.92%，但较去 年同期下降 9.46%。1-4 月累计进口 77.7 万吨，同比微降 0.81%。3-4 月数据显示，美国对华铜废料出口呈现"双降"特征:3 月出口量 225 万吨(环比-28.41%，同比-51.51%)，不在中国市场的份额降至 11.85%， 排名跌落至第二位；4 月虽环比微增 4.98%至 2.36 万吨，但同比仍大 幅下滑 43.98%,份额进一步萎缩至 11.52%，排名被泰国反超滑落至第 三。与此形成鲜明对比的是亚洲供应链的强势崛起。日本 4 月对华出 口量达 3.27 万吨，环比增长 21.02%，同比逆势增长 13.78%，以 15.96% 的占比稳居榜首。另外泰国市场， ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.05.22） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：77000-78700 区间波动 中期观点：66000-90000 区间波动 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 供给方面，智利铜矿巨头安托法加斯塔（Antofagasta）与冶炼厂的年中谈判可能以 0 加工费（TC/RCs）为起点。艾芬豪宣布，目前该矿铜资源总量为 937 万吨，较 2023 年 11 月估算的 500 万吨增长 89%。中国 2025 年 4 月精炼铜（电解铜）产量为 125.4 万吨，同比 增加 9%；1-4 月累计产量为 478.1 万吨，同比增加 5.6%。中国 4 月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量 为 292.44 万吨，比上升 22.20%，同比增长 25.62%。尽管 4 月有冶炼厂有检修计划， 但华东新厂投产西南某厂提产，炼厂废铜、阳极板储备充足，硫酸价格仍 处高位弥补亏损，以及港口铜精矿库存增加支撑生产，使得 4 月铜产量环 比小增。进入 5 月，SMM 统计，有 5 家冶炼厂有检修计划，但 4 月检修 的冶炼厂恢复正常生产，复产的量甚至要多于检修影响量。此外，由于目 前港 ...

s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 粕类油脂丨日报 F03113318 Z0018777 2024 年 5 月 21 日 美豆播种迅速，马棕油 5 月大概率增产 近日，国内外蛋白粕与油脂期货市场行情热点回顾： （一）大豆系与菜籽系粕类油脂 1、USDA 每周作物生长报告显示，截至 5 月 18 日当周，美国大豆 种植率为 66%，高于市场预期的 65%，此前一周为 48%，去年同期为 50%，五年均值为 53%；大豆出苗率为 34%，上一周为 17%，上年同期 为 25%，五年均值为 23%。 广金期货研究中心 农产品研究员 苏航 2、 饲料行业信息网：近期部分地区进口大豆通关时间缩短至 8~15 天，随着进口大豆集中到港入厂，预计本周油厂大豆压榨量继续 回升，至 225 万吨。 期货从业资格证号： 3、World Weather Inc.:5 月 19 日，机构预计未来 1-2W，美产区 均将有降雨惠及，且俄亥俄河下游、Delta 三角洲北部和田纳西河流 域部分区域仍偏湿;温度方面，预计本周美中部温度将大幅下滑，下 周虽或有所回暖但不会偏高。 期货投资咨询证书： 4、Profa ...

Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday (May 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.56 per barrel, down $0.13 or 0.21% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.19 - $63.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.38 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.24% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.85 - $66 [1] - According to a news report from a Middle - Eastern country, Khamenei doubts whether the nuclear negotiation with the US can reach an agreement as Iran is reviewing the proposal for the fifth - round negotiation. If the agreement is reached and US sanctions on Iran are relaxed, the agreement between the two countries will increase Iran's daily oil exports by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels [2] - The International Energy Agency released its May "Oil Market Monthly Report" on Thursday. The report believes that economic headwinds and record - high sales of electric vehicles will reduce the average daily global oil demand growth to 650,000 barrels for the rest of 2025. At this rate, the average daily global oil demand growth will slow down from 990,000 barrels in the first quarter of this year [3] - Currently, the progress of the two negotiations is poor, and the trade tensions are temporarily relieved, so international oil prices are temporarily supported. However, the room for continuous oil price increase is limited, mainly due to Trump's uncertain tariff policy affecting the economy and OPEC+ maintaining the production - increase strategy. In the long run, if the Iran nuclear agreement is reached, the pressure on the oil supply side will continue to increase. The oil consumption increments of major consumer countries during the summer oil consumption peak season may be affected by factors such as the sluggish economic recovery prospects and the substitution of new energy, and oil prices will still be under pressure [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Mid - term outlook is bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Mid - term outlook is bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Mid - term steel prices are under pressure [4] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: In the short - term, the equity market lacks upward momentum after the positive news of Sino - US tariff relaxation is realized, but policies are favorable for the A - share market in the medium and short - term, and funds may increase the allocation of weighted sectors such as CSI 300 [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to weak economic data, loose monetary policy expectations, improved liquidity, and upcoming deposit rate cuts, the bond market is expected to be bullish [2][3] - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Although short - term demand for steel products has improved, high raw material inventory and weak downstream demand will put pressure on steel prices in the medium term [4][5] 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Intraday View**: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience [1] - **Mid - term View**: Bullish [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF2506 and short IM2506 [1] - **Core Logic**: Sino - US tariff relaxation boosts short - term risk appetite, but there is still uncertainty in trade negotiations; policies to stabilize and activate the capital market are beneficial for the A - share market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [2] - **Intraday View**: Bullish with a sideways trend [2] - **Mid - term View**: Bullish [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2] - **Core Logic**: Weak economic data in April indicates weak domestic demand, leading to expectations of further monetary policy easing; improved liquidity and upcoming deposit rate cuts are favorable for the bond market [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil [4] - **Intraday View**: Short - term drivers are improving [4] - **Mid - term View**: Steel prices are under pressure [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to sell call options on rebar RB2510 (strike price: 3300 - 3450) [4] - **Core Logic**: Short - term demand for steel products has increased due to Sino - US tariff negotiations, but high raw material inventory and weak downstream demand will limit the upward movement of steel prices [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of stock index futures is range - bound with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience, and the medium - term view is bullish. For bond futures, the short - term view is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For copper, the short - term view is a 77000 - 78700 range fluctuation, and the medium - term view is a 66000 - 90000 range fluctuation. Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and be under pressure in the medium - term. Polysilicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and at a low level in the medium - term. Lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decline in the short - term and experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support in the medium - term [1][2][4][6][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF206 and short IM2506 - **Core Logic**: Sino - US tariff relaxation boosts short - term risk appetite, but trade negotiation uncertainties remain. Policy support for the capital market encourages medium - and low - risk - preference funds to increase allocations in weighted sectors such as the CSI 300 or dividend assets [1] Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Volatile rebound - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 - **Core Logic**: Weak domestic demand in April's inflation and financial data may lead to further monetary policy easing. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, short - term liquidity tightened [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate within the 77000 - 78700 range - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate within the 66000 - 90000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading approach - **Core Logic**: US restrictions on chip exports may drag down the US stock market. Kazakhstan's refined copper production declined in 2025. China's copper exports increased, but domestic copper demand in some sectors is expected to decline. Copper inventories show a mixed trend. Tariff trade wars and domestic supply - demand changes will affect copper prices [4][5] Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 8100 - 8300 range - **Medium - term View**: Be under pressure within the 7900 - 9000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2506 - C - 11000 until expiration and short the futures - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production declined, but demand declined more, and the inventory is at a high level, leading to a continued supply - surplus situation [6][8][9] Polysilicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 36500 - 37000 range - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the 35000 - 40000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2506 - C - 47000 - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production and demand both declined, and the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Continue to decline within the 60000 - 63000 range - **Medium - term View**: Experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support within the 59000 - 65000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 - **Core Logic**: The spot price is continuously falling. In April 2025, production increased, and the total inventory is at a high level, which is negative for the price [12]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Views - For aluminum, the intraday view is oscillating with an upward bias in the range of 20,000 - 20,300, and the medium - term view is high - level operation in the range of 19,200 - 21,000 [1]. - For steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), the short - term driving force has improved, but the steel price is still under pressure in the medium term [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Aluminum) - **View and Strategy** - Intraday view: Oscillating with an upward bias, operating range 20,000 - 20,300; Medium - term view: High - level operation, operating range 19,200 - 21,000. Reference strategy is to sell AL2507 - P - 19300 and hold [1]. - **Core Logic** - As of May 12, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 600,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week and lower than 745,000 tons in the same period last year, being at the lowest level in the past 5 years, which is favorable for aluminum prices [1]. - From January to April, automobile production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively, which is favorable for aluminum prices [1]. - The China - US tariff agreement boosts market sentiment and is favorable for aluminum prices [2]. Black and Building Materials Sector (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **View and Strategy** - Intraday view: Recent driving force has improved; Medium - term view: Steel prices are still under pressure. Reference strategies are to continue holding the "sell rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3450" strategy and temporarily reduce the position of the "buy rebar in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150" strategy [3]. - **Core Logic** - The China - US tariff negotiation has made substantial progress. The current tariff rate has dropped significantly from the previous 145% imposed by the US on China. Some foreign - trade factories may rush to fulfill export orders before the implementation of the 54% high - tariff in early July, driving a short - term increase in the demand for steel plates (such as hot - rolled coil), which is conducive to the stabilization and rebound of steel prices [3]. - The overall inventory pressure of steel raw materials is still large. The furnace material price and steel production cost are expected to be under pressure in the medium term. For iron ore, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports this week was 14.34088 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%, and the low - grade tradable inventory at ports is at a 5 - year high. The Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea will be put into production this year, with about 60 million tons of iron ore to enter the market, and the supply pressure is difficult to digest. The sample mine coking coal inventory is 390,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.90% and a year - on - year increase of 50.90%. The coking coal inventory of coal washing plants is 197,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.75% and a year - on - year increase of 30.95%, remaining at the highest level in the past 5 years. The inventory pressure of furnace materials may further translate into an incremental supply of finished steel [4]. - The overall downstream demand for steel is average. For steel plates, under the impact of US tariff increases, not only are the profits of the global manufacturing industry damaged, but it is also expected to gradually impact global consumption. The negative impact on export orders for industrial products such as steel plate downstream has gradually emerged, as shown by the decline in the new order index of the manufacturing PMI in April, indicating that the growth of domestic demand for steel plates cannot fully offset the decline in external demand. For building materials, the funds for downstream construction projects are still in short supply, and the construction progress is slow, resulting in weak consumption of construction steel. The weekly consumption of rebar last week was 2.139 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 18.32%. The weak demand for building materials is the main reason for the overall weaker consumption of the five major steel products compared to previous years. Under the background of supply - demand pressure, the driving force for the continuous upward movement of steel prices is insufficient, and one can sell out - of - the - money call options on rebar to earn option time - value income [5].