Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] - Trade wars and tariffs have a significant impact on the market, affecting the supply - demand balance and price trends of multiple commodities [13][19][28] - The market is also influenced by factors such as production capacity adjustments, inventory changes, and seasonal demand [4][10][23] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC +'s production cut compensation plan and US sanctions on Iran support price rebound, but the upside is limited due to potential trade - war impacts on demand. Consider buying options after volatility subsides [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: US sanctions on Iran and low Russian fuel oil shipments tighten global heavy - oil supply. Summer demand in South Asia benefits fuel oil, and supply pressure eases for low - sulfur fuel oil, driving prices up [20] - **Asphalt**: Supply increases as a refinery resumes production and others switch from other products. Demand improvement takes time, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: External prices are stable, and domestic refinery price cuts are due to increased supply. PDH shutdowns reduce import demand, but crude oil stability may drive the futures up [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's long - term upward trend is supported by economic concerns and dollar risks, but short - term volatility is high after a rapid rise [2] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Domestic spot provides support, but the price is expected to face resistance in the 76,500 - 77,000 yuan range. Consider short - selling on rebounds [3] - **Aluminum**: Low supply growth and strong destocking, but the price is expected to oscillate below 20,000 yuan due to macro - risk uncertainties [4] - **Zinc**: LME inventory increase and weak consumer confidence. The price is under pressure and should be short - sold [6] - **Lead**: High LME inventory and weak consumer demand in the off - season. The price is in a stalemate, and it's advisable to wait and see [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price rebound is approaching an end. New short - selling opportunities may emerge [8] - **Tin**: The price is expected to rebound, but short - sell against the MA60 daily line [9] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is in a downward channel, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to continue weakening in the short term due to policy and supply factors [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is cautious. Demand is mixed, and the market trend may not change without large - scale production cuts [12] - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand has some resilience. The price may have a small - scale rebound and will mainly oscillate [14] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices follow steel trends. Coke inventory is high, and coking coal supply is abundant. Prices are likely to be weak in the short term [15][16] - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Prices follow steel. Supply and demand factors suggest short - selling on rebounds [17][18] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Domestic production declines slightly, and inventory is low in the near term, supporting the price. However, supply is expected to increase significantly later [24] - **Styrene**: Supply is supported by maintenance, but cost and demand are weak, putting pressure on the price [25] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Crude oil rise boosts costs, but polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene lacks price support [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate at a low level due to supply, demand, and cost factors. Caustic soda shows strength, but it's advisable to wait and see [27] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester industry chain is affected by tariffs. PTA's production cut has limited positive effects [28] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Related Products**: Brazilian soybean arrivals in the second quarter may pressure the basis of soybean meal. Mid - term, the futures may be more resilient due to tariffs and the US planting season [34] - **Corn**: Supply increases at Shandong deep - processing enterprises, and inventory is high. The price is likely to decline further [38] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: High expected supply in September may limit the upward space of the futures price [39] - **Eggs**: The in - production inventory and chick - replenishment volume are rising, and the long - term price trend is bearish [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton sales data is good, but domestic cotton may be weak due to tariff impacts. It's advisable to wait and see [41] - **Sugar**: Uncertainty in Brazilian sugar production and domestic supply - demand changes. The price is expected to oscillate [42] - **Apples**: Cold - wave impacts are estimated to be small. Spot sales are good, and the price may rise. The market focuses on new - season production [43] - **Wood & Pulp**: - **Wood**: High expected arrivals in April and weak demand. The price is likely to be weak [44] - **Pulp**: High port inventory and general demand. The price is affected by the macro - environment [45] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares may oscillate and accumulate momentum. Focus on the timing of domestic policy implementation [46] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market is in a wide - range oscillation. Consider a steepening strategy for multi - variety hedging [47] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The short - term futures may oscillate. Potential drivers include ship transfers and US tariff policies [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★, representing a complex signal with some bullish and bearish elements [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Coke: ★☆★, showing a complex signal with some bullish and bearish elements [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★, presenting a complex signal with some bullish and bearish elements [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆, implying a clear bearish trend and an ongoing market movement [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear bearish trend and an ongoing market movement [1] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is generally pessimistic, and most commodity futures are under short - term pressure. The future trends of various commodities depend on factors such as demand intensity in the peak season, domestic and foreign macro - policies, and the implementation of domestic policies [1][2] - For most commodities, the impact of tariff policies and the recovery of real - estate sales are important factors to watch [1] Summary by Commodity Steel - Thread steel: This week, the apparent demand has unexpectedly recovered, production has slightly decreased, and inventory has been depleted faster but remains at a relatively low level. The market is pessimistic, and the trading floor is under short - term pressure [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Demand has improved, production has stabilized, and inventory has continued to decline. As profit per ton of steel decreases, the resumption of blast - furnace production is expected to slow down [1] Iron Ore - Supply: Global iron - ore shipments are fluctuating normally, and April's shipments are stronger than last year. Domestic arrivals have rebounded significantly and are expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [2] - Demand: The apparent demand for finished products this week has unexpectedly recovered, and there is still room for the resumption of hot - metal production in the short term. The market expects stimulus policies around the Politburo meeting at the end of April, and there is a small room for a short - term rebound [2] Coke - The price is weak. Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Coke inventory remains high, and the price is likely to be weak in the short term due to factors such as compressed premium on the trading floor and rising coal - for - coking prices [3] Coking Coal - The price is weak. Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Mine production has increased, and inventory has continued to rise. The price is under pressure from inventory levels and delivery expectations and is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] Silicomanganese - The price rebounds and then weakens. Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Inventory has increased significantly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Ferrosilicon - The price rebounds and then shows weakness. Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Demand has decreased marginally, supply has declined, and inventory has increased. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]

| /// 国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年04月17日 | | 原油 | ななな | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ななな | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价收涨,S006合约日内涨2.31%。昨日美国财政部发布新一轮对伊朗制裁,美国对伊朗的极限施压政策 延续，本周六将于罗马举行的第二轮美伊会谈前景趋于暗淡。此外，OPEC+公布最新城产补偿计划，产量约束边际 有所增强,预计5月OPEO+实际增产指引自此前的35.1万桶/天回落至25.8万桶/天。美国上周EIA能源库存增加51.5 万桶,基本符合预期。油价仍处暴跌后的震荡修复期,考虑到贸易战 ...

| 《八八国投期货 | | 农产品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月17日 | | 豆一 | ななな | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ななな | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【三一】 国产大豆表现为调整的态势。国产大豆方面今日黑河调节储备拍卖,全部流拍。进口大豆供应端短期面临供需 形式的转换,4月下旬大豆会大量到港。短期继续关注政策端的表现以及大豆供需面的变动。 【大豆&豆粕】 豆瓣短期要面临供需形势的转换,4月下旬之后巴西大豆会大量到港,二季度到选压力偏大要防范后续豆粕基差 继续承压的风险。中期受到关税政策和美国产区 ...

期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | | 2023年 | 2022年 | | --- | --- | --- | | 中国 | 24407 | 22785 | | 欧盟 | 7484.6 | 7935 | | 美国 | 5680 | 5660 | | 日本 | 3182 | 3277 | | 王耳其 | 2909 | 3027 | | 韩国 | 2612.2 | 2632 | | 俄罗斯 | | 2937 | 1 / 8 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 2 / 8 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 3 / 8 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | | 2020年 | 2025年 | 2030年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 社会钢铁积蓄量 | 114 | 133 | 150 | 4 / 8 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 省份 | 产量（万吨） | 占全国比重（%） | | --- | --- | --- | | 江苏 | 4470 | 17.5% | | 广东 | 3250 | 12.7% | | 浙江 | 2020 | 7.9% | | 山东 | 1500 | 5.9% | | 河北 | 1210 | 4.7% | ...

【原油】 上周全球原油岸罐库存下降,但在途与浮仓库存增加的背景下总体原油库存进一步增加,年初以来的累计增幅已达 8.1%，昨日公布的美国最新API原油库存进一步累增240.2万桶。上周我们谈到本轮沟价下跌重点关注WII55-60美 元/桶（对应布伦特60-65美元/桶、S0430-470元/桶）的页岩油成本支撑,下行目标位已基本得到兑现。周内行情 以暴跌后的震荡修复为主,后市贸易战对需求的边际负面影响依然存在,IEA4月报将今年石油需求增速下调30.5万 橘/天,OPEC+加速增产路径亦无调整,累库压力下原油中期下行风险依然存在,关注波动率回落后看跌期权的买入 机会。 【与東簽約&低流發】 今日燃油系期货均下跌，高低硫价差延续走缩趋势，符合我们此前观点。美国对俄罗斯、伊朗等重油生产国的制裁 延续,俄罗斯燃料油发运量仍处低位,全球重油资源供应偏紧格局暂难改,南亚国家夏季燃油发电高峰利好需求, FU裂解受到提振;低硫方面,科威特低硫燃料油发运环比下降叠加国内烧厂转产，低硫供应压力有所缓解，LU裂解 延续震荡。 | ■技期货 11/11/2 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - From the data of January - March 2025, the main indicators of the real estate industry continued to decline significantly. Although the decline in single - month sales and new construction starts narrowed marginally in March, the overall situation remained weak. Attention should be paid to policy changes and the restoration of the market's internal driving force [1] Summary by Related Indicators Development Investment Completion Amount - The cumulative value was 199.04 billion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 10.6%. The growth rate in March was - 9.9%, and the growth rate from January - February was - 10.0%. The growth rate for the whole year of 2024 was - 9.8% [1] New Housing Start - up Area - The cumulative value was 129.96 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 24.4%. The growth rate in March was - 18.1%, and the growth rate from January - February was - 23.0%. The growth rate for the whole year of 2024 was - 29.6% [1] Commercial Housing Sales Area - The cumulative value was 218.69 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 12.9%. The growth rate in March was - 3.0%, and the growth rate from January - February was - 5.1%. The single - month growth rate in March was - 0.9% [1] Housing Construction Area - The cumulative value was 6,137.05 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 12.7%. The growth rate in March was - 9.5%, and the growth rate from January - February was - 9.1% [1] Housing Completion Area - The cumulative value was 130.6 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 11.5%. The growth rate in March was - 14.3%, and the growth rate from January - February was - 27.7%. The growth rate for the whole year of 2024 was - 15.6% [1]

ิหัธ 4月机构月报全球石油需求增速下调幅度 IEA DOE OPEC 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2026 2025 数据来源：IEA/DPE/OPEC,国投期货 安如泰山 信守承诺 2025年4月IEA/DOE/OPEC原油平衡表解读：贸易战对需求的定量影响几何? 国投期货|能源评数 美国主导的贸易战引发市场对经济衰退及油品需求的担忧,尽管在极限博弈后美国将除中国外大部分国家 的超额对等关税豁免90天,并对以中国为主要贸易伙伴的电子类产品豁免对等关税,但贸易战引发的需求边际 走弱预期及具体影响量级仍受市场高度关注。本月度IEA/DOE/OPEC机构月报给出了贸易战对石油需求影响的量 化评估，其中三大机构对2025年石油需求增速的下调幅度平均为27.6万桶/天，美国能源部和OPEO对2026年石油 需求增速的下调幅度平均为14万桶/天。 以IEA为例，该组织预估石油需求增速将自2024年的83.3万桶/天回落至2025年、2026年的72.6万桶/天、 69.2万桶/天，2025年需求增速下调30.5万桶/天。分产品来看，与工业生产需求相关的柴油、燃料油及化工原 料LPG&乙烷下调幅度最大,而消费 ...