Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: No clear rating [1] - Pulp: No clear rating [1] - Sugar: No clear rating [1] - Apple: No clear rating [1] - Logs: Bullish bias [1][7] - Natural Rubber: Slightly bullish, but poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: Slightly bullish, but poor operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: Slightly bearish, but poor operability [1] Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as production, demand, inventory, and international relations. Different commodities show different trends, and investment operations should be adjusted according to specific situations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise, while spot prices remained stable. Xinjiang's additional - picked cotton prices were strong. As of October 15th, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, and the cumulative processed lint was 98.2 tons. The off - season of the peak season continued, and new orders for pure cotton yarn mills were insufficient. The short - term rise of Zhengzhou cotton was a rebound, and it was advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian production data was bearish, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The market focused on the next season's production estimate. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season was expected to be good, and sugar prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillation [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. The spot trading volume increased, and the market mainly traded the cold - storage warehousing volume. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and the initial cold - storage inventory might be higher than expected. It was advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Affected by the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the futures market sentiment improved. The global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period, and the domestic tire start - up rate rebounded after the holiday. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, while the synthetic rubber inventory increased. The strategy was to rebound after an oversell [5] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to rise, and spot prices were stable. As of October 16th, the inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic import volume increased year - on - year. The supply was relatively loose, the demand was average, and it was advisable to wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The supply might remain low, the demand in the peak season supported the price, the inventory was low, and the operation idea was bullish [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals first declined and then rebounded, halting the downward trend. Events such as China - US trade, the Russia - Ukraine war, and the US government shutdown are at critical stages of the game, with uncertain prospects and volatile risk sentiment. In the short term, precious metals have large intraday fluctuations, the severe over - buying is being corrected, and after the correction, they may enter a stage of high - level consolidation. It is recommended to wait and see for a buying opportunity after stabilization [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Topics Russia - Ukraine Situation - The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on liquefied natural gas imports [1] - US media reported that the US allowed Ukraine to use long - range missiles against Russia, but Trump called it fake news [1] - Bettsent said there would be a "substantial increase" in sanctions against Russia, and then the US Treasury Department announced sanctions on two major Russian oil companies [1] - Trump cancelled the meeting with Putin in Budapest, stating that the meeting would make no progress [1] US Government Shutdown - On October 22, local time, the US Senate voted 54 to 46 to reject the Republican - proposed temporary appropriation bill again, and the government "shutdown" deadlock continues. This is the 12th time the Senate has voted down the bill since the government shutdown [2] Tariffs - India and the US are about to reach a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on India to 15% - 16% [2] - The Trump administration is preparing a drug investigation to pave the way for new tariffs [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price rebounded sharply overnight, and the decline momentum of oil prices this week is expected to slow down. Precious metals are in a weak adjustment phase, and it is recommended to wait for a stable buying opportunity. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily, while aluminum prices are expected to test the previous high resistance. The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situation, and trade negotiations, showing different trends [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded sharply, with Brent's December contract rising 4.36%. The decline momentum of oil prices this week is expected to slow down in the absence of additional negative factors. The market is in an oversold rebound state, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the $65/barrel resistance level of Brent due to geopolitical fluctuations [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight, fuel oil prices rose significantly following the cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical fluctuations, but the supply will be looser in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are weak, but the cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply of liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly this week. The chemical demand is growing, while the combustion demand is weak. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the price is boosted by the rebound of crude oil [24]. - **Bitumen**: The weekly asphalt production rate declined. The supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and the price has rebounded from a low level due to the stop - falling of crude oil [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, gold and silver continued their weak adjustment. They are in the process of repairing the overbought situation and may enter a high - level shock stage after the correction. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated with a positive line. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals reflects the resilience of copper prices. The market is waiting for the Sino - US business meeting this week, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. An overseas aluminum plant reduced production by 200,000 tons due to an accident. The short - term aluminum price will continue to test the previous high resistance [5]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is extremely low, and the overseas spot is tight, supporting the London zinc price to break through the $3,000 integer mark again. The domestic zinc price has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term rebound height depends on zinc ingot exports and downstream consumption [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The downstream demand recovery is limited, and the social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of the nickel industry chain may be dragged down. Technically, the Shanghai nickel price is weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, the tin price fluctuated with a negative line. The domestic tin concentrate import volume decreased by nearly 30% month - on - month in September. A short - selling strategy is recommended [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated upward. The iron - water production remains high. The weekly output of silicon - manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated upward. The iron - water production remains high, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [20]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price rebounded, and the market trading became active. The total market inventory decreased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and rebound [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures continued to adjust. The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be alleviated in November [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures adjusted downward. The production reduction in November - December is uncertain. The price is expected to oscillate, and there may be an opportunity to bet on a rebound [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price is expected to continue to rebound. The short - term oil price stop - falling provides rebound power, but the high import volume is the main pressure in the medium term [27]. - **Styrene**: The crude oil price increase may boost the cost and market sentiment of styrene, but the high inventory suppresses the price [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The sharp increase in crude oil prices may boost olefin - chain products. The supply - demand contradiction of polypropylene may increase, and the price may remain at a low level for a long time [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC shows an oscillating trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the weak reality pattern continues. Caustic soda oscillates narrowly, and short - selling should be cautious [30]. - **PX and PTA**: The sharp rebound in oil prices will provide rebound power for PX and PTA. The short - term price is expected to rebound, and the mid - term is expected to be in a contango state [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price continued to rebound at night. The short - term price is expected to rebound, but there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the medium term [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The glass price oscillated narrowly. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be in the bottom - range [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillated. The supply is high, the demand is slightly reduced, and it is recommended to short at a high level after a rebound [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but it may be tight in the first quarter of next year if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [37]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The domestic oil - meal ratio is in a callback state. The export demand of US soybeans is uncertain. It is recommended to look for opportunities where oil is stronger than meal in the medium - long term [38]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term trend of rapeseed prices is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US, Sino - Canadian, and US - Canadian trade relations [39]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price oscillated weakly. The supply is loose, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [40]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but may be tight in the first quarter of next year. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [37]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price showed an intraday upward - then - downward trend. The market is weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [42]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price declined. The domestic cotton demand is general, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be good. Attention should be paid to the weather and the growth of sugarcane [44]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price is strong. The cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Timber**: The timber price oscillated. The supply is low, the demand is supported, and a long - buying strategy is recommended [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price increased. The port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is general. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. Livestock - **Pigs**: The live - pig spot price continued to rebound, and the futures price oscillated narrowly. The price is in a rebound cycle, but a short - selling strategy is recommended after the rebound [41]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot price of the container freight index (European line) is expected to rise. The short - term upward momentum of the futures price may weaken, but the overall trend is expected to be strong [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [2] - Paper Pulp: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [6] - Sugar: No clear rating indicated, expected to maintain a weak trend [3] - Apple: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [4] - Logs: Operation advice is to maintain a bullish mindset [7] - Natural Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - number Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, paper pulp, sugar, apple, logs, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber, providing insights into supply, demand, inventory, and price trends, and giving corresponding investment operation suggestions [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined, and traders lowered the spot basis. Xinjiang machine - picked cotton prices were stable with a slight upward trend. As of October 15th, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, up 4.7 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative processed lint was 98.2 tons, an increase of 17.9 tons year - on - year. The peak season showed a weak performance, and new orders for pure cotton yarn mills were insufficient. Macroscopically, the market expectations were chaotic. Zhengzhou cotton's short - term rise was considered a rebound, and it was advised to watch temporarily [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, although the cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand were about to start crushing, and sugar production was expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weak, and the market's focus shifted to the next season's output estimate. In Guangxi, rainfall was good after July, and the sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season was relatively good. Overall, sugar prices were expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices were strong. In Shandong, trading volume increased, and high - quality goods had high prices. In the Northwest production area, most high - quality goods had been ordered. The market was mainly trading the cold - storage inventory volume. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and due to small fruit diameters, production might be adjusted downwards. The initial cold - storage inventory in the new season might be higher than expected. It was advised to watch temporarily [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated, and the futures market sentiment was mainly watchful. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, the synthetic rubber spot price rose, the overseas butadiene port price fell, and the Thai raw material market prices mostly declined. The global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. After the National Day, tire enterprises resumed production, and the domestic tire operating rate rebounded significantly. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 43.75 tons, while the domestic butadiene and synthetic rubber inventories increased. The strategy was to expect a rebound after an oversold situation [5] Paper Pulp - Today, paper pulp futures rose. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the broad - leaf pulp price was also stable. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper pulp ports in China was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic paper pulp imports increased year - on - year. The domestic port inventory was relatively high, and the supply was relatively loose. The paper pulp demand was average, and the downstream demand lacked peak - season support. Recently, the overseas broad - leaf pulp quotation continued to rise, narrowing the price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp. It was advised to watch temporarily [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. In October, the New Zealand radiata pine quotation increased, and the domestic spot price was weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The overseas quotation was still high, and the domestic supply was expected to remain low. The port outbound volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the peak - season demand supported the price. The log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. It was advised to maintain a bullish mindset [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Styrene, PVC, Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated in the table, but with analysis in the report [3] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: The symbol in the table is unclear [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products having different price trends and supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and policies, and their short - term and medium - term trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with controllable enterprise inventories and stable offers. Downstream follow - up was okay, and the trading range was stable [2] - Polyethylene futures rose, but the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Sellers mostly offered small discounts [2] - Polypropylene futures rose. Although the supply pressure decreased due to more upstream maintenance, the demand improvement in the peak season was limited, and the high - level inventory was slowly digested. The supply - demand contradiction may increase, and the price may remain low for a long time [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices rebounded above 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China rebounded, and the low - level transactions in Shandong improved. The short - term price may rebound, but the high import volume in the medium term is the main pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose, but there were only expected device shutdowns. The inventory remained high, and the upward price momentum was limited [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rebounded with reduced positions. The short - term price may continue to rebound, mainly depending on oil prices. In the medium term, with the weakening demand and expected inventory accumulation, the strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with increased positions. The short - term price has a rebound expectation, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the medium term, suggesting shorting at high prices [5] - Short fiber continued to be a bullish allocation. The new production capacity was limited, the inventory was decreasing, and the downstream备货 sentiment was improved [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. The long - term pressure is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fluctuated at a low level. The short - term coastal market may fluctuate within a range, and the price may be bullish in the medium - to - long term as the import supply pressure is expected to decrease [6] - Urea futures prices rose slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, supported by the marginal improvement of supply - demand and coal prices [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating trend. The supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range due to weak domestic demand and potential export policy pressure [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated narrowly. The supply fluctuated slightly, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting due to non - aluminum downstream restocking and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated strongly. The supply was still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass fluctuated narrowly. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the downward range is expected to be limited. It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money put options [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international oil price continued to rebound, and the SC11 contract rose 2.33% during the day. The decline in US API crude oil inventories and the US crude oil purchase plan supported the market. In the medium - term, there is still pressure of loose supply and demand, but the downward momentum of oil prices may slow down this week. Uncertainties in international talks will bring new fluctuations [2]. - FU and LU followed the rise driven by the strong cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported but may face supply pressure in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are weak, but its cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [3]. - The asphalt main contract rose nearly 3% driven by the rebound of crude oil. The market is in a tight - balance pattern, and the inventory is slightly decreasing [4]. - The LPG main contract rose about 1.7% led by the rebound of crude oil. The supply increased slightly this week, and the fundamentals improved marginally [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price continued to rebound, with the SC11 contract rising 2.33% during the day. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 298,100 barrels last week, and the US 1 - million - barrel crude oil purchase plan supported the market. OPEC +'s production increase strategy and the decline in demand after the peak consumption season bring medium - term supply - demand pressure, but the downward momentum of oil prices may slow down this week. Uncertainties in international talks will bring new fluctuations [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - FU and LU followed the rise driven by the strong cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical factors, ship - fuel demand, and feedstock improvement, but supply may be loose in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are weak, with sufficient overseas supply. Its cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [3]. Asphalt - The asphalt main contract rose nearly 3% driven by the rebound of crude oil. The national weekly operating rate decreased, and the refinery production plan in November decreased. Terminal demand was affected by weather, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market is in a tight - balance pattern [4]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract rose about 1.7% led by the rebound of crude oil. The supply increased slightly this week. Chemical demand increased, while combustion demand was weak. The inventory at refineries and ports decreased, and the fundamentals improved marginally [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish with some uncertainty**: Soybean (★☆☆), Egg (★☆☆) [1] - **Trend of long position**: Soybean No.1 (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Soybean Oil (★★★) [1] - **Trend of short position**: Palm Oil (☆☆☆), Rapeseed Meal (☆☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (☆☆☆), Live Pig (☆☆☆) [1] - **Relatively balanced short - term trend**: Corn (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pig, and egg, and provides investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationship, trade policies, and market sentiment [2][3][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No.1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans reduced positions, and the price continued to decline. The auction price was 3900 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The market participants are actively purchasing new grains. The spread between domestic and imported soybeans is oscillating. The US soybean market lacks official data, and the export demand is uncertain. Short - term attention should be paid to the purchase performance and policy guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures first declined and then rose, and the spot price dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, and the supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable. If the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates, the supply in the first quarter of next year may be tight. In the context of high supply and high inventory, if the trade does not ease, the soybean meal futures will likely continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The ratio of soybean oil to palm oil started to decline, with palm oil falling more. The EU proposed a ban on importing forest - destroying commodities, and the Malaysian palm oil production and export increased in October. The US soybean market lacks data, and the export demand is uncertain. Short - term attention should be paid to the ratio adjustment, and in the long - term, opportunities for oil to be stronger than meal should be sought [3] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed products market is weak. The market is waiting for the development of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The Canadian rapeseed harvest is over, but the export has not improved. The Australian rapeseed will arrive in the fourth quarter, and the Russian rapeseed oil export to China may increase. The short - term trend of rapeseed products futures is not obvious [5] Corn - The main contract of corn futures oscillated weakly. The spot price in the Northeast is stable, and the supply of wet corn is sufficient. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The new corn listing in the Northeast will increase in the next two weeks, and the corn futures will likely continue to run weakly at the bottom [6] Live Pig - The live pig spot price rebounded driven by secondary fattening, and the futures oscillated narrowly. The pig price has entered a rebound cycle, but due to the large supply pressure, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended after the rebound. The pig price is likely to form a double - bottom pattern, and there may be a second bottom in the first half of next year [7] Egg - The egg futures rose and then fell, and the market remained weak. The old - hen culling sentiment is cautious, and the cold - storage eggs have not been fully sold. The short - selling trend of the futures continues [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon are all rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has rebounded after adjustment, but the rhythm remains volatile, influenced by factors such as Sino-US relations and domestic demand - stimulating policies [2] - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be a strong - side oscillation [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal are likely to be more prone to rising than falling [4][5] - The prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are moving up in an oscillatory manner, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The demand for thread steel has rebounded month - on - month but remains weak year - on - year, with production declining and inventory decreasing; the demand for hot - rolled coil has also increased, production has slightly decreased, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down [2] - Iron - making production has slightly decreased but remains high, and downstream carrying capacity is insufficient. The negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain persists [2] - In September, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. Domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have increased month - on - month and are stronger than the same period last year, domestic arrivals have dropped from a high level, and port inventories have increased significantly [3] - On the demand side, iron - making production is gradually falling from a high level, and the pressure of production reduction in the future is increasing [3] - There are concerns about external trade frictions and negative feedback in the industrial chain, but there are also expectations for policy benefits [3] Coke - The second round of price increases for coking has started. Coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased [4] - Coke inventories continue to decline slightly. Downstream purchases are on a small - scale and as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] - Carbon element supply is abundant, and high - level iron - making production provides support. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [4] Coking Coal - The output of coking coal mines has slightly increased, spot auction transactions have improved, and transaction prices have mostly risen. Terminal inventories have increased [5] - Total coking coal inventories have slightly increased month - on - month, and production - end inventories have slightly decreased. Post - holiday production has not increased significantly [5] - Carbon element supply is abundant, and high - level iron - making production provides support. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [5] Silicon Manganese - Attention is paid to the tender pricing news of a large steel mill in the north. The current inquiry price is 5,800 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan/ton decrease from the September transaction price [6] - Iron - making production remains high on the demand side. Weekly silicon manganese production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and inventories have slightly decreased [6] - Manganese ore shipping quotes have slightly increased month - on - month, and spot ores have been boosted by the trading floor. Manganese ore inventories have slightly decreased, and contradictions are not prominent [6] Ferrosilicon - Attention is paid to steel tender - related news. Iron - making production remains high on the demand side [7] - Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has slightly increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has slightly increased marginally [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories are continuously decreasing [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight, the prices of gold and silver dropped sharply with significant fluctuations in recent days. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown issue are at a critical stage of the game, causing risk sentiment to fluctuate. The short - term over - bought situation of precious metals is being corrected. After the correction, a high - level shock platform may be formed. It is recommended to wait and see for a while and look for buying opportunities after the market stabilizes [1] 3. Other Key Information - Trump postponed the scheduled meeting with Russian President Putin in Budapest. The decision was made after a call between US Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Trump will decide on the meeting in the next few days. He will also hold talks with NATO Secretary - General Lute on the 22nd [2] - Europe and Ukraine agreed on a Russia - Ukraine peace plan at 12 o'clock, negotiating based on the current front lines. Trump said he has not made a decision on the Russia - Ukraine issue. Russia reiterated its stance of full control of Donbass to the US last weekend, and European leaders issued a joint statement supporting an immediate freeze of the current front lines in Ukraine [2] - A Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the interest rate path in 2026 is highly uncertain [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Gold closed at 999.80 with a weekly increase of 10.90%, silver at 12249.00 with a 10.53% increase, and polycrystalline silicon at 52340.00 with a 6.89% increase. - Crude oil closed at 432.60 with a 6.34% decrease, glass at 1095.00 with a 9.28% decrease, and PTA at 4402.00 with a 2.91% decrease [2]. 2.2 A - shares - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4514.23 with a 2.22% decrease, the CSI 500 Index at 7016.07 with a 5.17% decrease, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index at 2967.77 with a 0.24% decrease [2]. 2.3 Overseas Stocks - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22679.97 with a 3.24% increase, the S&P 500 Index at 6664.01 with a 1.70% increase, and the Hang Seng Index at 25247.10 with a 3.97% decrease [2]. 2.4 Bonds - The yield of the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond was 1.50 with an increase of 1.25 bp, the 10 - year was 1.84 with a 0.5 bp decrease, and the 5 - year was 1.60 with a 0.13 bp increase [2]. 2.5 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index closed at 98.56 with a 0.27% decrease, the US dollar central parity rate at 7.09 with a 0.14% decrease, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate at 1.17 with a 0.24% increase [2]. 3. Commodity Views 3.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, Fed rate - cut expectations, potential RMB appreciation, stable market expectations, and improved domestic M1 growth [4]. - Bearish logic: Profit - taking in the technology sector, low risk appetite before Sino - US trade resolution, limited policy stimulus, and reduced A - share trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Weak economic data, loose liquidity, and market risk aversion [4]. - Bearish logic: Potential incremental policies, unimplemented domestic rate cuts, and possible recovery of risk assets [4]. 3.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, approaching break - even price, undervalued fundamentals, and US strategic oil purchase [5]. - Bearish logic: Saudi production increase, EU's call for end of war, rising Russian exports, high US inventory, and expected supply surplus [5]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Limited production potential, policy plans, low import data, and stable spot prices [5]. - Bearish logic: Increased Malaysian production, falling oil prices, low cost - effectiveness, and weak market sentiment [5]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Fed rate - cut expectations, low supply, seasonal demand, long - term demand growth, and policy support [6]. - Bearish logic: Trade friction risks, hedging pressure, low market attention, and weak spot trading [6]. 3.5 Chemical Sector - **Glass** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Positive sentiment during meetings, cost support, reduced inventory, and policy expectations [6]. - Bearish logic: High intermediate inventory, unclear production - cut policies, low orders, and weak real - estate data [6]. 3.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Geopolitical tensions, Fed rate - cut expectations, repeated conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced US banking concerns, short - term profit - taking, and a stronger US dollar [7]. 3.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Safety inspections, supply disruptions, high iron - water production, and positive market sentiment [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced steel - mill profits, stable supply, weak demand, and unclear trade friction [7].