Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the price, price changes, implied volatility (IV), and IV quantiles of various ETFs and indices over a specific period, as well as related data such as skew indices, smile curves, and the relationship between price, IV, and trading volume. It aims to help investors understand the market trends and volatility characteristics of these financial products. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the 50ETF price changed from 3.110 to 3.144, with a 1.06% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 17.52% to 14.65%, and the next month's IV decreased from 16.91% to 14.79% [1]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 65.70% - 73.80%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 54.80% - 67.60% [1]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 102.33 [2]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shanghai 300ETF price changed from 4.624 to 4.710, with a 1.51% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 20.10% to 15.86%, and the next month's IV decreased from 18.81% to 16.36% [3]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 46.50% - 84.20%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 62.40% - 76.30% [3]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 104.33 [7]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shenzhen 300ETF price changed from 4.768 to 4.858, with a 1.50% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 19.51% to 16.41%, and the next month's IV decreased from 18.99% to 16.80% [8]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 70.60% - 80.90%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 61.40% - 75.70% [8]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 101.86 [15]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price changed from 7.114 to 7.280, with a 2.33% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 24.66% to 16.40%, and the next month's IV decreased from 23.23% to 20.98% [18]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 75.90% - 81.30%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 59.90% - 72.70% [18]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 104.26 [21]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price changed from 2.844 to 2.906, with a 1.61% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 26.35% to 18.52%, and the next month's IV decreased from 23.71% to 21.13% [27]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 82.80% - 85.80%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 62.00% - 75.00% [27]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 109.85 [32]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the ChiNext ETF price changed from 2.915 to 3.062, with a 3.06% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 35.56% to 29.25%, and the next month's IV decreased from 33.60% to 29.32% [33]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 70.00% - 86.70%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 59.90% - 82.80% [33]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 99.06 [38]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shenzhen 100ETF price changed from 3.393 to 3.512, with a 2.54% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 26.27% to 20.89%, and the next month's IV decreased from 26.40% to 23.11% [43]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 79.50% - 85.80%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 75.10% - 85.20% [43]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 98.08 [46]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price changed from 1.433 to 1.477, with a 2.78% increase on October 21. The current month's IV increased from 41.33% to 37.58%, and the next month's IV decreased from 40.03% to 34.10% [52]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 73.40% - 85.20%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 59.90% - 80.50% [52]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 92.62 [54]. 3.9 STAR 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the STAR 50ETF price changed from 1.388 to 1.430, with a 2.66% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 42.72% to 32.04%, and the next month's IV decreased from 40.51% to 33.88% [58]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 57.10% - 87.90%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 53.00% - 86.80% [58]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 92.43 [60]. 3.10 300 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the 300 Index price changed from 4514.235 to 4607.872, with a 1.53% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 18.96% to 16.69%, and the next month's IV decreased from 20.44% to 18.28% [66]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 68.90% - 78.10%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 69.30% - 79.70% [66]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 102.69 [68]. 3.11 1000 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the 1000 Index price changed from 7185.478 to 7344.047, with a 1.45% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 25.42% to 22.48%, and the next month's IV decreased from 25.34% to 23.68% [69]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 61.60% - 68.90%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 55.50% - 66.60% [69]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 111.40 [72]. 3.12 Shanghai Composite 50 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index price changed from 2967.775 to 3007.263, with a 1.09% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 16.99% to 15.08%, and the next month's IV increased from 48.66% to 51.17% [73]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 57.10% - 66.20%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 53.00% - 80.50% [73]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 102.34 [79].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Coke and coking coal: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is generally weak, with the overall domestic demand remaining weak and the rebound momentum of the market being insufficient. It is expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain still existing, but there are also certain expectations for policy benefits [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be more prone to rising than falling, with relatively strong support near the previous lows [4][5] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are in a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions and steel tender information [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The daily market fluctuated mainly. The apparent demand for thread steel rebounded significantly month - on - month but remained weak year - on - year. The output continued to decline, and the inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil also recovered, with a slight decline in output and a slowdown in inventory accumulation. The iron - making water output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. The real estate investment continued to decline significantly in September, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. The overall domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The market rebound momentum was insufficient, and it was expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The market fluctuated on the day. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreased from a high level but was still stronger than the annual average and the same period last year, and the port inventory increased significantly. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel improved month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year. The iron - making water output decreased slightly from a high level. As the terminal peak season ended and the steel mill profits shrank to a low level, the pressure on iron - making water production cuts increased. There were still concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain due to repeated external trade frictions, but there were also expectations for policy benefits [3] Coke - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The second round of price increase for coking started. The coking profit was average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory continued to decline slightly. Currently, downstream customers purchased on demand in small quantities and mainly consumed inventory, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level downstream iron - making water provided support. The support near the previous low was relatively strong. The coke market price was slightly higher than the spot price, and there were expectations for an increase in coke costs due to the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, so the price was likely to be more prone to rising than falling [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices mainly increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The output did not increase significantly after the holiday. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level downstream iron - making water provided support. The support near the previous low was relatively strong. The coking coal market price was slightly lower than the Mongolian coal price, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in the main coking coal production areas, so the price was likely to be more prone to rising than falling [5] Silicomanganese - The price oscillated in a narrow range during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing information of a large steel mill in the north. The current inquiry price was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared with the transaction price in September. On the demand side, the iron - making water output remained at a high level. The weekly output of silicomanganese decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the inventory decreased slightly. The long - term demand was still good. The quoted price of manganese ore during the shipping period increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [6] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated in a narrow range during the day. Attention should be paid to the steel tender information. On the demand side, the iron - making water output remained at a high level. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand was acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | なな☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约减仓,价格回调。今日国产大豆竞价拍卖40422吨，底价3900元/吨,成交4345吨,成交率 10.75%，成交均价3900元/吨，溢价0元/吨，竞价拍卖也给予市场定价参考指引。市场参与主体在积极收购新 粮。国产大豆和进口大豆价差也表现为回调态势。进口大豆方面市场情绪转为乐观，暂时盖过了出口需求的担 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated since September, with OPEC+ production increase and post-peak demand decline causing supply-demand pressure. However, considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today, with开工率 decreasing, demand weaker than expected, and the market in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillates narrowly, supply increases slightly, chemical demand grows while combustion demand is flat, and inventories decline [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially the in-transit crude oil inventory. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (crude oil inventory by 3.3% and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.3%) [1]. - OPEC+'s continuous production increase and post-peak demand decline bring supply-demand pressure, and geopolitical factors also weigh on the market [1]. - Considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum of oil prices may slow this week, and attention should be paid to the China-US and Russia-US talks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose as geopolitical tensions ease and other factors change [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, and the impact of the restart of the RFCG device at Dangote Refinery needs further observation [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near-month contracts relatively stronger [3]. - The weekly national asphalt production rate decreased, demand in October is weaker than expected, and the cumulative shipment volume in mid-October increased 1 percentage point less year-on-year compared to the end of September [3]. - Social inventory is steadily decreasing, factory inventory is decreasing weakly, and the overall commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market remains in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillates narrowly, with far-month contracts under pressure [3]. - This week, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was flat, and both refinery and port inventories decreased [3]. - Today, the spot price in Shandong rose while the futures price oscillated, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic, PVC: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish or bearish trend with limited trading operability [1] - Pure benzene, short - fiber: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1][5] - Styrene, PTA, methanol, urea, caustic soda, soda ash, glass: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term bullish and bearish trends are in a relatively balanced state with poor trading operability, advising to wait and see [1][3][5][6][7][8] - PX, ethylene glycol, bottle - chip: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balance between bullish and bearish trends and low operability on the market [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the chemical industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost fluctuations, and seasonal changes. The market sentiment is also influenced by external factors like oil prices, trade situations, and policy expectations [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated widely around the 5 - day moving average. The price hit a new low this year, but the market trading atmosphere improved as producers aimed to stabilize the market and downstream purchasing increased [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated. For polyethylene, the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure increasing. For polypropylene, new capacity and reduced maintenance led to expected supply growth, while downstream demand was less than expected [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated at a low level. The spot price in East China continued to fall.开工 declined, port inventory rose, and the high import volume was the main pressure. A monthly spread reverse arbitrage was recommended [3] - Styrene futures rose but remained below the 5 - day moving average. The cost support declined, supply decreased slightly, and demand increased slightly. However, the price still continued to decline [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded in the morning and fell in the afternoon. PX supply decreased due to maintenance, while PTA supply was expected to increase. There was a profit improvement in the polyester industry, but PX and PTA prices were still weak with a back - spread strategy recommended [5] - Ethylene glycol prices oscillated. Domestic production decreased slightly, and the port continued to accumulate inventory. There was no substantial positive news in the short term, and the mid - term demand was to be observed [5] - Short - fiber had limited new capacity, high - load operation, and inventory reduction. It was recommended to be long - positioned. Bottle - chip's processing margin improved, but demand weakened with the cooling weather [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports in coastal areas may slow down. The port inventory decreased last week, and the planned arrival volume was high this week. The domestic methanol production was at a high level, and the market was expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the long term [6] - Urea futures oscillated strongly. Agricultural demand started, but industrial demand declined. The market supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC supply was expected to increase as maintenance ended. Domestic demand was stable, and export might face pressure in the future. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [7] - Caustic soda supply might fluctuate slightly. Non - aluminum downstream replenished inventory at low prices, and it was recommended to be cautious when short - selling [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to decline. Supply was still high, and demand from photovoltaic glass decreased. It was recommended to short after a rebound [8] - Glass prices continued to weaken. The glass factory's inventory increased, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. It was suggested to sell out - of - the - money put options [8]

| 《八》国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月21日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续上涨,贸易商下调棉花现货基差,现货成交一般。目前新棉的成本总体持稳,主流价格在6.1-6.2 元/公斤左右，较高收购价在6.2-6.3元/公斤左右,南疆价格高于北疆。截至10月15号,全国新棉采摘进度为 58.8%，同比提高4.7个百分点，累积加工皮棉98.2万吨，同比增加17.9万吨。轧花厂对于籽棉收购偏谨慎，预 计收购 ...

E TS 《2025年9月石脑油船期月报》 2025/10/21 国投期货研究院化工组 庞春艳 Z0011355 王雪忆 F03125010 9月俄罗斯发运量639.54万桶，环比减少39.06%；中东地区发运量4299.51万桶，环比减少5.46%；美国装船量 378.49万桶，环比减少33.03%；发运总量较上月减少844.99万桶，环比下降13.71%。各大区中总到港量最高的 地区为东北亚，到港量为2772.29万桶。 上月中国石脑油到港量为790.29万桶，环比减少584.01万桶，其中来自 市场概览 中东地区的进口占比最高，为43.52%，其次为东北亚和南亚。 上月仅来自东北亚的货源量有所提升，来自中东 、俄罗斯、南亚以及地中海和北非的进口量均有所减少。 | | 俄罗斯发运 | 中东发运 | 美国发运 | 东北亚-中国 | 中东-中国 | 俄罗斯-中国 | 南亚-中国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月 | 1116.95 | 4860.4 | 300.01 | 131.1 | 487.28 | 97.09 | ...

Oil Market - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.65%. Since September, global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The mid-term outlook for the oil market remains under pressure due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, despite upward revisions in earnings forecasts by three major institutions for the next two years [2] - Geopolitical risks have eased following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, leading to a reduction in oil market risk premiums. However, with oil prices nearing the lows seen during the trade war in April, the short-term downward momentum is weakening, suggesting a potential shift to a weak consolidation phase [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded, with market sentiment influenced by ongoing negotiations regarding US-China trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US government shutdown. The long-term upward trend for gold and silver remains intact, but short-term volatility risks have increased, suggesting a cautious approach to positions [3] Base Metals - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, supported by easing tariffs under Trump's policies and the potential end of the US government shutdown. However, domestic supply and demand conditions are mixed, with copper inventories rising. The outlook suggests high copper prices may lead to continued volatility [4] - Aluminum prices remained stable, with consumption levels since August showing little change year-on-year. Inventory levels have been neutral, indicating limited fundamental drivers for price movements [5] - The aluminum alloy market is facing tight scrap supply and rising costs due to tax policy adjustments, although high inventory levels are present [6] - Alumina production capacity is at historical highs, with rising inventories and evident oversupply. The average cost in September was around 3000 yuan, nearing levels that could trigger production cuts [7] - Zinc inventories increased, confirming a supply surplus. Despite short-term export opportunities, actual shipments remain limited, and zinc prices are under pressure [8] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are fluctuating, with rebar demand showing a significant month-on-month increase, although year-on-year figures remain weak. Production continues to decline, and inventory levels are decreasing [15] - Iron ore prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with global shipments increasing compared to last year. Domestic demand is expected to decrease as the peak season ends, leading to potential production cuts [16] Other Commodities - The LPG market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in supply. Chemical demand is rising, but overall demand remains subdued [23] - The urea market is facing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices under pressure due to high inventories and limited export policies [24] - The cotton market is seeing stable prices amid weak demand, with ongoing attention to US-China trade relations [42] - The sugar market is under pressure from high production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to a cautious outlook for prices [43]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - The international oil price declined overnight, with the Brent December contract down 0.65%. Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation speed has accelerated, with a 1.5% increase since the fourth quarter. The medium - term trend of the crude oil market remains under pressure, but the short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may turn to a weak oscillation [2]. Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded overnight. With multiple issues in negotiation, the medium - long - term upward logic of gold and silver is solid, but short - term two - way fluctuation risks have increased. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see [3]. Copper - Copper prices oscillated higher overnight. Although the enthusiasm for allocating to the copper market is high, the domestic copper market shows "weak supply and demand" at high prices, and the social inventory continues to rise. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [4]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate overnight. Since August, the apparent consumption of the aluminum market has been basically flat year - on - year. The inventory performance since the National Day is neutral, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will continue to oscillate and test the previous high resistance [5]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remains at 20,600 yuan. With tight scrap aluminum supply and increased enterprise costs, but high industry inventory, it continues to follow the aluminum price [6]. Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. Supply is in obvious surplus, and the spot index continues to decline. Alumina is mainly in a weak operation [7]. Zinc - The SMM zinc social inventory rose to 165,300 tons on Monday. The Shanghai zinc is under pressure and fell with heavy volume, but it has strong support at around 21,500 yuan/ton. The LME zinc is under obvious pressure at the 3,000 - dollar integer mark. The domestic and foreign price difference may converge periodically, and the zinc ingot export is the general direction [8]. Lead - Shanghai lead is in a stalemate between long and short positions. The inventory is low, and the overall inventory accumulation is less than expected. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, but the inflow of overseas low - price crude lead is expected to strengthen. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuates narrowly. The downstream demand recovery in the peak consumption season is limited, and the social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening. Technically, Shanghai nickel is weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated higher overnight, mainly following the trading rhythm of the copper market. The supply of the global tin market is gradually stabilizing, and the trading center is expected to oscillate downward. The previous short - selling strategy is continued [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices opened high and then oscillated, and the market trading warmed up. The total market inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 132,700 tons. Technically, the futures price of lithium carbonate oscillates and waits for a clear direction [12]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures fell back with a significant reduction in positions, mainly due to the significant cooling of policy expectations. The spot price is stable, and the inventory accumulation risk continues under high inventory. The market maintains an oscillating trend [13]. Industrial Silicon - The Xinjiang operating rate of industrial silicon has reached the highest point of the year, and the downstream demand is basically stable. The weekly social inventory has increased marginally, and the spot price is slightly under pressure. After the electricity price rises in November, the production reduction in the southwest is highly certain [14]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Steel prices oscillated at night. The apparent demand for ribbed bars rebounded significantly month - on - month but remained weak year - on - year. The iron and steel industry's negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly. The steel price is expected to be volatile in the short term [15]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated weakly overnight, and the basis has strengthened recently. The supply has increased, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to oscillate at high levels [15]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated strongly during the day. The second round of price increase for coking has started. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price may be more likely to rise than to fall [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated strongly during the day. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly month - on - month. The price may be more likely to rise than to fall [17]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose and then fell during the day. The demand side maintains a high level of hot metal production. The output of silicomanganese remains at a relatively high level, and the inventory has decreased slightly [18]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated during the day. The demand is generally good, and the supply remains at a high level, with the on - balance - sheet inventory continuously decreasing [19]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The market's expectation of shipping companies' price increase is strengthening, and the trading core is shifting from weak reality to strong expectation. The 12 and 02 contracts are expected to run bullishly, but the upside space is limited [20]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side in a weak oscillating trend. The high - sulfur fuel oil has some support in the near - term, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - term. The low - sulfur fuel oil is weak in the short - term, and the demand may improve marginally in the medium - term [21]. Asphalt - The weekly asphalt operating rate declined month - on - month. The demand in October is expected to be weaker than expected. The asphalt market remains in a tight - balance pattern in the short - term, and the price has support at the bottom [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG main contract continued to oscillate narrowly, and the far - month contracts are relatively under pressure. The supply increased slightly this week, and the inventory at refineries and ports decreased [23]. Urea - The urea main contract continued to oscillate narrowly. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, but the price has limited room to continue to decline [24]. Methanol - The import supply of methanol in coastal areas may slow down. The domestic methanol operating load remains high, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. The methanol port market may oscillate within a range in the short - term [24]. Pure Benzene - The pure benzene price continued to fall overnight. The weekly production decreased, and the port inventory increased. The medium - term absolute price depends on the oil price and the performance of the external market [25]. Styrene - The cost - side support for styrene continues to decline. The supply - demand situation has improved slightly in the short - term, but the price continues to decline [26]. Polypropylene, Polyethylene, and Propylene - Propylene prices have fallen to a new low for the year, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. The polyethylene market has limited actual transactions. The polypropylene supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices fluctuated narrowly during the day. The supply is under high pressure, and the demand is stable. The PVC may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda prices oscillated narrowly, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling [28]. PX and PTA - PX supply is expected to contract temporarily, and PTA supply is expected to increase. The terminal demand is expected to weaken. The prices of PX and PTA continue to be weak, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory [29]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has slightly declined, and the port inventory has continued to increase. The ethylene glycol price has broken through the support level and fallen. The short - term market lacks positive factors [30]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade PET - Short - fiber has new production capacity, and the inventory has decreased weekly. It is recommended to be long - biased. The bottle - grade PET processing margin has improved, but the demand is expected to weaken [31]. Glass - Glass prices continued to decline. The glass factory inventory continues to increase, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The decline amplitude is expected to be limited [32]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price fell, and the Thai raw material market prices mostly rose. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - production period. The post - holiday demand has recovered, but the supply pressure is large [33]. Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices continued to decline. The supply is still under high pressure, and the downstream demand growth is limited. It is recommended to short after a rebound [34]. Group 2: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The sales progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, but US soybean crushing has increased. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but it may be tight in the first quarter of next year if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates. In a high - supply and high - inventory pattern, the soybean meal is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [35]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The market sentiment has turned optimistic. The US soybean export demand is uncertain. The palm oil market has resilience. It is expected that oils are stronger than meals, and it is recommended to go long on oils at low prices [36]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed has extremely low inventory and low operating rates. The supply side of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has a strong willingness to support prices. It is recommended to take a short - long strategy and pay attention to the marginal changes in the economic and trade relationship [37]. Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans showed a strong upward trend and continued to oscillate and rebound. The short - term US soybean market sentiment is optimistic, but the export demand is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to the acquisition performance and policy guidance [38]. Corn - The autumn harvest progress of corn in the Huanghuai region is slow. The supply of corn is expected to remain loose, and the Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [39]. Hogs - The hog spot price rebounded after reaching a phased bottom. The supply pressure will still be large in the later stage. It is expected that the hog price may have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [40]. Eggs - After the post - National Day replenishment, the supply pressure has returned to the dominant position. The egg futures market shows a bearish trend [41]. Cotton - The US cotton demand may be weak. The Brazilian cotton production is expected to be high. The domestic Xinjiang cotton acquisition is in progress, and the demand is average. The short - term Zhengzhou cotton may oscillate [42]. Sugar - The international sugar supply is relatively sufficient, and the US sugar faces upward pressure. The domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the production expectation in Guangxi is relatively good [43]. Apples - Apple futures prices rose with increased positions. The market is mainly concerned about the cold - storage inventory. The apple production may be lower than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. Wood - Wood futures prices oscillated. The domestic supply is expected to remain low, and the demand in the peak season supports the price. It is recommended to take a long - biased strategy [45]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices rose slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is average. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp gives some support to softwood pulp. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 3: Financial Products Stock Index - The stock market oscillated with reduced volume, and the ChiNext Index led the rise. The futures index contracts all closed up. The market style may rotate in the short - term, and it is recommended to focus on the science and technology growth sector in the medium - term [47]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures oscillated. The Sino - US negotiation has not reached an agreement in the short - term. The bond market will gradually enter a repair stage, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [48].

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