1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The decline momentum of international oil prices is expected to slow down this week, and attention should be paid to the progress of the China - US talks in Malaysia and the Russia - US talks [2]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily and look for buying opportunities after stabilization [3]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [4]. - Aluminum prices will continue to oscillate in the short term [5]. - Alumina will mainly operate weakly [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy will continue to follow the movement of aluminum prices [7]. - Zinc prices have strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term rebound height depends on zinc ingot exports and downstream consumption [8]. - Nickel should be traded with a short - selling mindset [10]. - Tin should continue with a short - selling strategy [11]. - The price trend of lithium carbonate futures is to be clarified [12]. - The industrial silicon futures market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [13]. - Polysilicon will generally maintain an oscillating trend [14]. - Steel prices will continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. - Iron ore will mainly oscillate at a high level [16]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to rise rather than fall [17][18]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices will oscillate narrowly [19][20]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to maintain a relatively strong operation in the near future [21]. - Fuel oil has a "strong present, weak future" pattern, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply will remain loose [22]. - The asphalt market will maintain a tight - balance pattern in the short term, and the price has bottom support [23]. - LPG will continue to oscillate narrowly [24]. - Urea will continue to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - Methanol in the coastal market will maintain an oscillating trend within a range [26]. - Pure benzene futures prices will oscillate at a low level [27]. - Styrene will continue its downward trend [28]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene futures prices are in a downward trend [29]. - PVC may oscillate weakly, and caution is advised when short - selling caustic soda [30]. - PX and PTA prices will continue to be weak, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory [31]. - Ethylene glycol will continue to oscillate around 4000 [32]. - Short - fiber is recommended for short - term long - allocation, while bottle - chip processing margins will be under pressure [33]. - Glass is expected to have a limited downward range, and attention can be paid to selling out - of - the - money put options [34]. - Natural rubber can be considered for a rebound after a sharp decline [35]. - Soda ash is recommended to short after a rebound [36]. - It is recommended to wait and see for soybeans and soybean meal [37]. - It is recommended to long - allocate oils at low prices in the medium - to - long - term [38]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are recommended for short - term long - trading [39]. - Short - term attention should be paid to the acquisition of domestic soybeans and policy guidance [40]. - Corn will continue to operate weakly at the bottom [41]. - After the rebound of hog prices, it is recommended to short at high prices [42]. - Eggs are recommended to be short - sold [43]. - Cotton will oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth in the new sugar - making season [45]. - It is recommended to wait and see for apples [46]. - Wood is recommended for long - trading [47]. - It is recommended to wait and see for pulp [48]. - The stock index market style may rotate in the short term, and focus on the technology - growth sector in the medium term [49]. - The yield curve steepening of treasury bond futures is expected to end [50]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with the Brent December contract up 1.18%. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels more than expected, and gasoline and refined oil inventories also declined. The continuous production - increase strategy of OPEC+ and the sequential decline in demand after the peak oil - consumption season still bring medium - term supply - demand loosening pressure to the market. But considering that international oil prices are approaching the low point in April during the trade war and the net long positions in foreign - exchange crude oil futures and options have also fallen to the low end of the range, the decline momentum of oil prices is expected to slow down this week without additional negative news [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight, fuel oil followed crude oil with a large - amplitude oscillating trend of opening high and then falling. High - sulfur fuel oil maintains a "strong present, weak future" pattern, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to remain loose [22]. - **Asphalt**: The national weekly asphalt operating rate decreased month - on - month. Terminal demand in the north was blocked by significant cooling, and rainfall in the south also dragged down the rigid demand. It is expected that the demand in October will be weaker than expected. The social inventory is steadily decreasing, and the factory inventory is also decreasing but at a slow pace. The asphalt market remains in a tight - balance pattern in the short term, and the price has bottom support [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The LPG main contract continued to oscillate narrowly, and the far - month contract was under relatively more pressure. This week, the supply increased slightly. The current chemical demand increased, while the combustion demand was relatively flat. The weekly refinery and port inventories both decreased [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, gold and silver prices tumbled and have been fluctuating significantly for many days. Recently, there have been some signs of easing in Sino - US trade. The Russia - Ukraine issue and the US government shutdown are in a critical stage of the game, and risk sentiment is fluctuating. Precious metals are currently overbought in the short term and are being corrected. After the correction, they may form a high - level oscillating platform. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and look for buying opportunities after stabilization [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated and closed down. Supported by the gold - copper ratio, copper prices showed strong resilience during the adjustment. The Shanghai copper was traded around 85,000 yuan. The market is concerned about the changes in domestic and foreign stock markets. The domestic spot copper was reported at 85,730 yuan, with a premium of 50 yuan in Shanghai. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Since August, the apparent consumption of the aluminum market has been basically flat year - on - year. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.2 million tons compared with last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory remained unchanged. Since the National Day, the inventory performance has been neutral, and the fundamental driving force is limited. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum will continue to oscillate and test the previous high resistance [5]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot indexes in various regions continue to decline. In September, the average cost in Shanxi and Henan was about 3000 yuan. The current index price is not yet low enough to trigger cash - loss production cuts in Shanxi and Henan but is approaching that level. Alumina will mainly operate weakly [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,600 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax - rate policy increases the enterprise cost. However, the industry inventory is at a high level, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts reaching 45,000 tons. Cast aluminum alloy will continue to follow the movement of aluminum prices [7]. - **Zinc**: The spot premium of LME zinc for 0 - 3 months has risen rapidly. The tight spot market has driven up the foreign - exchange price. Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the foreign market is strong. The spot export window for zinc has opened, and the foreign market has pulled up the domestic market. Short - sellers of Shanghai zinc reduced their positions at low prices, and the price rebounded slightly. The price ratio is not conducive to the import of ore, and with the approaching of winter storage, the TC of imported ore is gradually rising, while the TC of domestic ore continues to decline. Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the rebound height of zinc prices depends on zinc ingot exports and downstream consumption. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets has not effectively converged. Attention should be paid to the third - quarter production data of overseas smelters. With the high price of LME zinc, overseas smelters have some room to increase production [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated narrowly, and the market trading was average. The recovery of downstream demand during the peak consumption season was limited, and the market trading was relatively light. The social inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase. The confidence in the spot market is generally weak, and the trading is light. The price of ferronickel is 941 yuan per nickel point, and the support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the overall price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory increased by nearly 4000 tons to 47,700 tons, the ferronickel inventory decreased by 200 tons to 29,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory soared by 50,000 tons to 953,000 tons. Technically, Shanghai nickel is in a weak position, and a short - selling mindset is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, both domestic and foreign tin prices closed up. In September, the import volume of domestic tin concentrates decreased by nearly 30% month - on - month due to the impact of the African region, while the supply from Myanmar slightly recovered. Short - sellers at high positions should hold their positions against the 282,000 - yuan level and the MA10 moving average. A short - selling strategy should be continued [11]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: Overnight, the iron - ore futures oscillated. On the supply side, the global shipments increased month - on - month and were stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreased from a high level but was still stronger than the annual average and the same period last year. The port inventory increased significantly. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel increased month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year. The molten - iron output decreased slightly from a high level. As the peak season for terminals gradually ends and the steel - mill profit shrinks to a low level, the pressure for molten - iron production cuts in the future is gradually increasing. External trade frictions are recurring, and there are still concerns about the negative feedback in the industrial chain. However, with the convening of important domestic meetings, the market still has certain expectations for policy benefits. Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: The intraday price oscillated downward. The second round of price increases for coking has started. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory continued to decrease slightly. Currently, downstream users are purchasing on a small - scale and as - needed basis, mainly consuming inventory, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high - level molten - iron production at downstream provides support for carbon elements. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coke futures are slightly at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety - production assessment in the main coking - coal producing areas, which is expected to push up the coke cost. The price is likely to rise rather than fall [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The intraday price oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices mainly increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. After the holiday, the production did not increase significantly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high - level molten - iron production at downstream provides support for raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coking - coal futures are slightly at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety - production assessment in the main coking - coal producing areas. The price is likely to rise rather than fall [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The intraday price oscillated narrowly. Attention should be paid to the tender - pricing news of a large steel mill in the north. Currently, the inquiry price is 5800 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton lower than the transaction price in September. On the demand side, the molten - iron output remains at a high level. The weekly output of silicon - manganese decreased slightly and remains at a relatively high level. The silicon - manganese inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward - looking quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures price. The manganese - ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The intraday price oscillated narrowly. Attention should be paid to the steel - tender news. On the demand side, the molten - iron output remains at a high level. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The silicon - iron supply remains at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continues to decrease. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [20]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The futures prices of polypropylene, plastic, and propylene continued to decline. In the spot market, prices fell to a new low for the year. Production enterprises showed a strong willingness to stabilize the market, and the purchasing willingness of downstream factories increased, resulting in an increase in market transactions and an improvement in the overall trading atmosphere. In the polyethylene market, there is a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and many are waiting for news - based guidance. The cost support is weakening, and the supply side has certain pressure, so the market mostly offers small discounts for sales. For polypropylene, the impact of new production capacity and the weakening of device - maintenance efforts are expected to increase the supply. The follow - up of new orders after the holiday is less than expected, and there are still obstacles to the consumption of finished - product inventory. In addition, the low profit level of downstream enterprises restricts their purchasing enthusiasm [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillated. The maintenance of enterprises has gradually ended, and the supply is expected to increase. Domestic demand is stable at a low level, and foreign - trade exports are mainly for concentrated delivery. In September, exports continued to perform well, but with the upcoming anti - dumping duties and BIS policies, future exports will face downward pressure. The price of calcium carbide has recently stabilized, but the profit of chlor - alkali integration is good, and the cost support is not obvious. The weak - reality pattern continues, and PVC may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda oscillated narrowly. Shandong maintenance enterprises are gradually resuming production, and other regions have maintenance plans, so the supply may fluctuate slightly. Non - aluminum downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, and the liquid - caustic soda inventory decreased month - on - month. The profit of alumina is compressed, and the current output change is not significant. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation of new production capacity. The non - aluminum demand growth is limited. The downstream replenishment demand for caustic soda has not been disproven, and the basis is relatively high. Caution is advised when short - selling [30]. - **PX and PTA**: PX has recently undergone maintenance, and the supply has contracted periodically. PTA enterprises plan to start new devices and shut down old ones, and several maintenance devices are about to end, so the supply is expected to increase. The e - commerce sales window period and the nationwide cooling may boost the sentiment in the textile and clothing market. Yesterday, the sales of polyester yarn were strong, and downstream enterprises increased their inventory. From the perspective of industrial - chain valuation, the short - process profit of PX declined, and the long - process profit was neutral. The PTA processing margin oscillated at a low level, and the polyester profit improved. Overall, with the weakening of oil prices and the expectation of weakening industrial - chain demand, the prices of PX and PTA continued to be weak, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. An anti - spread strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to the possible improvement in demand under the influence of factors such as the improvement in downstream profit, the e - commerce sales window period, and cooling [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overnight, ethylene glycol continued to oscillate around 4000. The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the weekly arrival and shipping volumes decreased. The port inventory continued to increase. The weakening of crude oil has narrowed the loss of the naphtha - integrated

Report Industry Investment Rating - Propylene, Plastic, PVC: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pure Benzene, Short Fiber: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1][5] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Soda Ash, Glass: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] Core View of the Report - The prices of most chemical products in the market are under pressure, with some showing downward trends and some in a state of weak shocks. The supply and demand situation of different products varies, and short - term and medium - term trends are affected by multiple factors such as cost, supply, demand, and external market conditions [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated widely around the 5 - day moving average. The price hit a new low this year, but the market trading atmosphere improved. Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated. Polyethylene had a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Polypropylene faced increased supply and weak downstream demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices oscillated at a low level, with inventory rising and import pressure remaining. Month - spread reverse arbitrage was recommended. Styrene futures prices continued to decline, with cost support weakening and short - term supply - demand improvement having limited impact on prices [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices continued to be weak, with PTA having a stockpiling expectation. Ethylene glycol lacked substantial positive factors in the short term. Short fiber was a short - term long - position allocation, while bottle chips faced long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol in coastal areas might show different inventory trends, with short - term shocks and a medium - to - long - term upward trend. Urea market supply and demand remained loose, and the short - term market would continue to oscillate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC might show a weak downward trend, with supply increasing and future export facing pressure. For caustic soda, short - selling should be cautious due to unfalsified downstream replenishment demand and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to decline, with high supply pressure. Glass continued to weaken, but the decline was expected to be limited due to low valuation [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, with a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter (3.3% for crude oil and -1.3% for refined oil). OPEC+ production increase and demand decline after the peak season, along with geopolitical factors, put pressure on the market. But with oil prices near the April low and net long positions at a low level, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil is still weakly oscillating. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply - demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today. The weekly construction rate decreased, demand was affected by weather, and the market is in a tight - balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillated narrowly, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was weak, and the basis changed to a slight premium [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially for in - transit crude oil. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (3.3% for crude oil and -1.3% for refined oil) [1]. - OPEC+ production increase and post - peak - season demand decline, along with geopolitical factors, brought supply - demand pressure. But the downward momentum may slow this week as oil prices are near the April low and net long positions are low [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost end with a weakly oscillating trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply - demand will turn loose due to geopolitical easing and other factors [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, with high arbitrage cargo volume from the West to Singapore and the effect of refinery operation recovery still to be observed [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near - month contracts relatively stronger. The weekly construction rate decreased, and demand was affected by cold in the north and rain in the south [3]. - The 10 - month demand is expected to be weaker than expected, and the commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market is in a tight - balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillated narrowly, with far - month contracts under pressure. Supply increased slightly this week [3]. - Chemical demand grew while combustion demand was weak, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the price, price changes, implied volatility (IV), and IV quantiles of various ETFs and indices over a specific period, as well as related data such as skew indices, smile curves, and the relationship between price, IV, and trading volume. It aims to help investors understand the market trends and volatility characteristics of these financial products. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the 50ETF price changed from 3.110 to 3.144, with a 1.06% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 17.52% to 14.65%, and the next month's IV decreased from 16.91% to 14.79% [1]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 65.70% - 73.80%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 54.80% - 67.60% [1]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 102.33 [2]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shanghai 300ETF price changed from 4.624 to 4.710, with a 1.51% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 20.10% to 15.86%, and the next month's IV decreased from 18.81% to 16.36% [3]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 46.50% - 84.20%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 62.40% - 76.30% [3]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 104.33 [7]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shenzhen 300ETF price changed from 4.768 to 4.858, with a 1.50% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 19.51% to 16.41%, and the next month's IV decreased from 18.99% to 16.80% [8]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 70.60% - 80.90%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 61.40% - 75.70% [8]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 101.86 [15]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price changed from 7.114 to 7.280, with a 2.33% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 24.66% to 16.40%, and the next month's IV decreased from 23.23% to 20.98% [18]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 75.90% - 81.30%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 59.90% - 72.70% [18]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 104.26 [21]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price changed from 2.844 to 2.906, with a 1.61% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 26.35% to 18.52%, and the next month's IV decreased from 23.71% to 21.13% [27]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 82.80% - 85.80%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 62.00% - 75.00% [27]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 109.85 [32]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the ChiNext ETF price changed from 2.915 to 3.062, with a 3.06% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 35.56% to 29.25%, and the next month's IV decreased from 33.60% to 29.32% [33]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 70.00% - 86.70%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 59.90% - 82.80% [33]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 99.06 [38]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shenzhen 100ETF price changed from 3.393 to 3.512, with a 2.54% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 26.27% to 20.89%, and the next month's IV decreased from 26.40% to 23.11% [43]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 79.50% - 85.80%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 75.10% - 85.20% [43]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 98.08 [46]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price changed from 1.433 to 1.477, with a 2.78% increase on October 21. The current month's IV increased from 41.33% to 37.58%, and the next month's IV decreased from 40.03% to 34.10% [52]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 73.40% - 85.20%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 59.90% - 80.50% [52]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 92.62 [54]. 3.9 STAR 50ETF - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the STAR 50ETF price changed from 1.388 to 1.430, with a 2.66% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 42.72% to 32.04%, and the next month's IV decreased from 40.51% to 33.88% [58]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 57.10% - 87.90%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 53.00% - 86.80% [58]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 92.43 [60]. 3.10 300 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the 300 Index price changed from 4514.235 to 4607.872, with a 1.53% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 18.96% to 16.69%, and the next month's IV decreased from 20.44% to 18.28% [66]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 68.90% - 78.10%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 69.30% - 79.70% [66]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 102.69 [68]. 3.11 1000 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the 1000 Index price changed from 7185.478 to 7344.047, with a 1.45% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 25.42% to 22.48%, and the next month's IV decreased from 25.34% to 23.68% [69]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 61.60% - 68.90%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 55.50% - 66.60% [69]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 111.40 [72]. 3.12 Shanghai Composite 50 Index - **Price and IV Data**: From October 17 - 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index price changed from 2967.775 to 3007.263, with a 1.09% increase on October 21. The current month's IV decreased from 16.99% to 15.08%, and the next month's IV increased from 48.66% to 51.17% [73]. - **IV Quantiles**: The current month's IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 57.10% - 66.20%, and the next month's IV quantiles were 53.00% - 80.50% [73]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index on October 21 was 102.34 [79].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Coke and coking coal: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is generally weak, with the overall domestic demand remaining weak and the rebound momentum of the market being insufficient. It is expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain still existing, but there are also certain expectations for policy benefits [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be more prone to rising than falling, with relatively strong support near the previous lows [4][5] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are in a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions and steel tender information [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The daily market fluctuated mainly. The apparent demand for thread steel rebounded significantly month - on - month but remained weak year - on - year. The output continued to decline, and the inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil also recovered, with a slight decline in output and a slowdown in inventory accumulation. The iron - making water output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. The real estate investment continued to decline significantly in September, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. The overall domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The market rebound momentum was insufficient, and it was expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The market fluctuated on the day. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreased from a high level but was still stronger than the annual average and the same period last year, and the port inventory increased significantly. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel improved month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year. The iron - making water output decreased slightly from a high level. As the terminal peak season ended and the steel mill profits shrank to a low level, the pressure on iron - making water production cuts increased. There were still concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain due to repeated external trade frictions, but there were also expectations for policy benefits [3] Coke - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The second round of price increase for coking started. The coking profit was average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory continued to decline slightly. Currently, downstream customers purchased on demand in small quantities and mainly consumed inventory, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level downstream iron - making water provided support. The support near the previous low was relatively strong. The coke market price was slightly higher than the spot price, and there were expectations for an increase in coke costs due to the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, so the price was likely to be more prone to rising than falling [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated downward during the day. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices mainly increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The output did not increase significantly after the holiday. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level downstream iron - making water provided support. The support near the previous low was relatively strong. The coking coal market price was slightly lower than the Mongolian coal price, and there were expectations for safety production assessments in the main coking coal production areas, so the price was likely to be more prone to rising than falling [5] Silicomanganese - The price oscillated in a narrow range during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing information of a large steel mill in the north. The current inquiry price was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared with the transaction price in September. On the demand side, the iron - making water output remained at a high level. The weekly output of silicomanganese decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the inventory decreased slightly. The long - term demand was still good. The quoted price of manganese ore during the shipping period increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [6] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated in a narrow range during the day. Attention should be paid to the steel tender information. On the demand side, the iron - making water output remained at a high level. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand was acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different agricultural products are as follows: - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Palm oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as supply - demand, trade relations, and government policies on prices and provides corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract has reduced positions and prices have corrected. The auction of domestic soybeans provides pricing reference. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans shows a correction trend. The market sentiment for imported soybeans is optimistic, but the export demand is uncertain. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress, market acquisition performance, and policy guidance [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal (Lianpo) continues to oscillate at a low level. The current domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is high. If Sino - US trade relations continue to deteriorate, the supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year. In the context of high supply and high inventory, if Sino - US trade does not ease, Lianpo is likely to continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Domestic soybean and palm oil prices are oscillating, and the oil - meal ratio is adjusted. The short - term domestic soybean crushing demand is good, but the export demand is uncertain. The international palm oil market has near - term weak demand and long - term positive expectations. In the long - term, it is expected that oils are more resilient than meals, and it is advisable to buy oils at low prices [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products have declined. The rise in foreign oilseed prices reflects optimistic expectations for Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, which puts pressure on the domestic market. The supply side of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has a strong willingness to support prices. It is recommended to take a short - term long position in rapeseed products and use rapeseed products as a short - position in cross - competitor strategies [6] Corn - The main corn contract has increased positions and prices have risen. The supply of wet corn in the Northeast is sufficient, and the supply in Shandong has decreased. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The corn market is expected to continue to run weakly at the bottom, with possible increased volatility [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded, driven by secondary fattening and consumption improvement. Although the supply pressure is still large, the price is in a rebound cycle. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds, as there may be a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs has continued to fall, and the futures market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak long - term. The old - hen culling is cautious, and the cold - storage eggs are a potential pressure on the spot market. It is recommended to hold a short position [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated since September, with OPEC+ production increase and post-peak demand decline causing supply-demand pressure. However, considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today, with开工率 decreasing, demand weaker than expected, and the market in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillates narrowly, supply increases slightly, chemical demand grows while combustion demand is flat, and inventories decline [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially the in-transit crude oil inventory. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (crude oil inventory by 3.3% and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.3%) [1]. - OPEC+'s continuous production increase and post-peak demand decline bring supply-demand pressure, and geopolitical factors also weigh on the market [1]. - Considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum of oil prices may slow this week, and attention should be paid to the China-US and Russia-US talks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose as geopolitical tensions ease and other factors change [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, and the impact of the restart of the RFCG device at Dangote Refinery needs further observation [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near-month contracts relatively stronger [3]. - The weekly national asphalt production rate decreased, demand in October is weaker than expected, and the cumulative shipment volume in mid-October increased 1 percentage point less year-on-year compared to the end of September [3]. - Social inventory is steadily decreasing, factory inventory is decreasing weakly, and the overall commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market remains in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillates narrowly, with far-month contracts under pressure [3]. - This week, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was flat, and both refinery and port inventories decreased [3]. - Today, the spot price in Shandong rose while the futures price oscillated, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic, PVC: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish or bearish trend with limited trading operability [1] - Pure benzene, short - fiber: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1][5] - Styrene, PTA, methanol, urea, caustic soda, soda ash, glass: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term bullish and bearish trends are in a relatively balanced state with poor trading operability, advising to wait and see [1][3][5][6][7][8] - PX, ethylene glycol, bottle - chip: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balance between bullish and bearish trends and low operability on the market [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the chemical industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost fluctuations, and seasonal changes. The market sentiment is also influenced by external factors like oil prices, trade situations, and policy expectations [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated widely around the 5 - day moving average. The price hit a new low this year, but the market trading atmosphere improved as producers aimed to stabilize the market and downstream purchasing increased [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures fluctuated. For polyethylene, the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure increasing. For polypropylene, new capacity and reduced maintenance led to expected supply growth, while downstream demand was less than expected [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated at a low level. The spot price in East China continued to fall.开工 declined, port inventory rose, and the high import volume was the main pressure. A monthly spread reverse arbitrage was recommended [3] - Styrene futures rose but remained below the 5 - day moving average. The cost support declined, supply decreased slightly, and demand increased slightly. However, the price still continued to decline [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded in the morning and fell in the afternoon. PX supply decreased due to maintenance, while PTA supply was expected to increase. There was a profit improvement in the polyester industry, but PX and PTA prices were still weak with a back - spread strategy recommended [5] - Ethylene glycol prices oscillated. Domestic production decreased slightly, and the port continued to accumulate inventory. There was no substantial positive news in the short term, and the mid - term demand was to be observed [5] - Short - fiber had limited new capacity, high - load operation, and inventory reduction. It was recommended to be long - positioned. Bottle - chip's processing margin improved, but demand weakened with the cooling weather [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports in coastal areas may slow down. The port inventory decreased last week, and the planned arrival volume was high this week. The domestic methanol production was at a high level, and the market was expected to oscillate in the short term and strengthen in the long term [6] - Urea futures oscillated strongly. Agricultural demand started, but industrial demand declined. The market supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC supply was expected to increase as maintenance ended. Domestic demand was stable, and export might face pressure in the future. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [7] - Caustic soda supply might fluctuate slightly. Non - aluminum downstream replenished inventory at low prices, and it was recommended to be cautious when short - selling [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to decline. Supply was still high, and demand from photovoltaic glass decreased. It was recommended to short after a rebound [8] - Glass prices continued to weaken. The glass factory's inventory increased, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. It was suggested to sell out - of - the - money put options [8]

| 《八》国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月21日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续上涨,贸易商下调棉花现货基差,现货成交一般。目前新棉的成本总体持稳,主流价格在6.1-6.2 元/公斤左右，较高收购价在6.2-6.3元/公斤左右,南疆价格高于北疆。截至10月15号,全国新棉采摘进度为 58.8%，同比提高4.7个百分点，累积加工皮棉98.2万吨，同比增加17.9万吨。轧花厂对于籽棉收购偏谨慎，预 计收购 ...

E TS 《2025年9月石脑油船期月报》 2025/10/21 国投期货研究院化工组 庞春艳 Z0011355 王雪忆 F03125010 9月俄罗斯发运量639.54万桶，环比减少39.06%；中东地区发运量4299.51万桶，环比减少5.46%；美国装船量 378.49万桶，环比减少33.03%；发运总量较上月减少844.99万桶，环比下降13.71%。各大区中总到港量最高的 地区为东北亚，到港量为2772.29万桶。 上月中国石脑油到港量为790.29万桶，环比减少584.01万桶，其中来自 市场概览 中东地区的进口占比最高，为43.52%，其次为东北亚和南亚。 上月仅来自东北亚的货源量有所提升，来自中东 、俄罗斯、南亚以及地中海和北非的进口量均有所减少。 | | 俄罗斯发运 | 中东发运 | 美国发运 | 东北亚-中国 | 中东-中国 | 俄罗斯-中国 | 南亚-中国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月 | 1116.95 | 4860.4 | 300.01 | 131.1 | 487.28 | 97.09 | ...