ิหัธ 4月机构月报全球石油需求增速下调幅度 IEA DOE OPEC 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2026 2025 数据来源：IEA/DPE/OPEC,国投期货 安如泰山 信守承诺 2025年4月IEA/DOE/OPEC原油平衡表解读：贸易战对需求的定量影响几何? 国投期货|能源评数 美国主导的贸易战引发市场对经济衰退及油品需求的担忧,尽管在极限博弈后美国将除中国外大部分国家 的超额对等关税豁免90天,并对以中国为主要贸易伙伴的电子类产品豁免对等关税,但贸易战引发的需求边际 走弱预期及具体影响量级仍受市场高度关注。本月度IEA/DOE/OPEC机构月报给出了贸易战对石油需求影响的量 化评估，其中三大机构对2025年石油需求增速的下调幅度平均为27.6万桶/天，美国能源部和OPEO对2026年石油 需求增速的下调幅度平均为14万桶/天。 以IEA为例，该组织预估石油需求增速将自2024年的83.3万桶/天回落至2025年、2026年的72.6万桶/天、 69.2万桶/天，2025年需求增速下调30.5万桶/天。分产品来看，与工业生产需求相关的柴油、燃料油及化工原 料LPG&乙烷下调幅度最大,而消费 ...

| 11/11/2 | 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月16日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | なな☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属继续走强,国际金价刷新新高。美元信用和经济前景双重风险下黄金体现避险价值,世界黄金协 会数据显示近两月全球黄金ETF需求增量接近200吨,月度增幅达到近三年以来最高水平。黄金维持多头思 路,不过节奏上仍需警惕,美元在100关键位置表现抗跌,内外盘黄金持仓较前期均有一定下降,金价快速 上涨后追高需谨慎。今晚关注美国零售数据。 ★特朗普:暂停关税是因为这是一个过渡期,是出于灵活性的需要;将加速向英伟达发放所有必要许可。后 者因美国出口限制面临55亿美元的费用。美国启动对依赖进口加工的关键矿产及其衍生产品所带来国家安全 风险的调查。白宫:目前有超过15 ...

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| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年04月16日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆★ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡下挫。螺纹需求环比小幅上升，同比依然疲弱，产量基本同步，库存缓慢去化，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热卷供 需均有明显回落，库存去化态势放缓，高炉整体延续复产态势，铁水产量继续上升。从一季度数据看，基建、制造业有所好 转，地产销售、新开工降幅边际收窄，整体依然疲弱，随着美国加征关税冲击出口，内需政策对 ...

能源&航运策略周观察 2025年度·第10期 高明宇 Z0012038（原油&油品 燃料油 动力煤） 李祖智 Z0016599（天然气 LPG） 王盈敏 Z0016785（燃料油 沥青） 李海群 Z0021515（航运） contents 天然气 6 LPG 7 动力煤 8 集运（欧线）9 1 核心观点 2 策略推介 3 原油&油品 4 燃料油 5 沥青 Contents 能源&航运价格走势 上周原油系品种在暴跌后剧烈震荡，最终布伦特周度跌2.2%；天然气市场跌势延续，欧气、美气跌幅分别为4.8%、 8.1%；动力煤市场震荡偏弱，国外澳煤FOB跌2.2%，内贸煤价格低位持稳。 SCFI欧洲航线微涨1.5%至$1356/TEU，反映部分航司第16周试探性提价动作，但实际报价中枢持续承压。美西、 美东受中美贸易摩擦下货量萎缩影响，运价开启下行，环比下跌4.8%和2.4%至$2202/FEU和$3226/FEU。 核心观点&策略推介 原油：上周全球原油岸罐库存下降，但在途与浮仓库存增加的背景下总体原油库存进一步增加，年初以来的累计增幅已达 8.1%。上周我们谈到本轮油价下跌重点关注WTI55-60美元/桶（对应布伦 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜贵金属震荡偏强。美元信用和经济前景双重风险下黄金体现避险价值，维持多头思路，不过美 元在100关键位置表现抗跌，内外盘黄金持仓较前期均有一定下降，金价快速上涨后不宜追涨介入。 今晚关注美国零售数据。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜震荡收跌,美铜相对偏强,美国进口物价变动趋缓,但近期多数数据已被认为"过时且带 后",市场仍高度关注关税不确定性。沪铜2504最后交易日现铜小幅升水,今日关注国内一季度经 济指标。短期铜市由中国供需基本面及美铜物流支撑, 伦铜倾向9300美元阻力强，沪铜上方阻力在 7.65-7.7万,反弹空配。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝延续震荡。铝市供应低增速下近期去库强劲,总阵存处于近年最低水平。贸易战对全球需 求前景的打击程度仍有待观察,市场对于宏观风险的交易会有反复。沪铝技术面向下破位后上方面 临两万整数关口和均线压制,预计本周19000-20000元震荡运行。 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 【原油】 上周全球原油岸罐库存下降,但在途与浮仓库存增加的背景下总体原油库存进一步增加,年初以来 的累计增幅已达8.1%，昨日公布的美国最新API原油库存进一步累增24 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is mainly in short-term oscillation, and attention should be paid to the intensity of peak-season demand and changes in domestic and foreign macro policies [1] - The short-term trend of iron ore is expected to be oscillatory, and future attention should be paid to the introduction and implementation of domestic policies [2] - The coke price is likely to be weak in the short term [3] - The coking coal price is mainly in a weak oscillation [5] - For silicomanganese, it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] - For ferrosilicon, it is also recommended to short on rebounds [7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - Thread steel demand has a slight month-on-month increase but remains weak year-on-year, with low inventory; hot-rolled coil supply and demand have significantly declined, and the inventory reduction trend has slowed down; the overall blast furnace continues the resumption of production, and pig iron output continues to rise [1] - Domestic demand improvement still takes time, and steel exports in March remained high, but the manufacturing and steel exports face impacts after the US tariff increase; the impact of tariff policies on the market is decreasing, and the market is gradually stabilizing, mainly in short-term oscillation [1] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment is in normal fluctuation, and the shipment in April is stronger than the same period last year; the domestic arrival volume has rebounded significantly and is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [2] - The national port inventory of iron ore has decreased significantly, and it may stabilize with the rebound of arrival volume; the demand for finished products is at the top of the stage, and steel mills have slight profits, with a slight resumption of pig iron production [2] - Overseas trade frictions show signs of phased mitigation, and market panic has eased, but there is a risk of recurrence in the future; the short-term iron ore trend is expected to be oscillatory [2] Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, but the subsequent momentum for further price increases is poor; the coke price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies [3] - Pig iron daily output has a slight increase, coking profit has significantly shrunk, but daily output continues to rise; the overall coke inventory reduction is not smooth and remains at a high level, and the trading procurement enthusiasm has declined [3] - The coke futures premium has been compressed, the price of coal for blast furnace has increased, and there are many macro-variable factors; the price is likely to be weak in the short term [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies; coking coal mines have resumed production, and the output has increased this week, with good spot auction trading volume and a slight increase in trading price [5] - The total coking coal inventory continues to rise, the inventory pressure at the production end continues to decline, and downstream coking plants and steel mills only have rigid demand procurement; the import of Mongolian coal has a weak oscillatory futures price, and high-price resources at the port have weak trading [5] - The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, the downstream pig iron output remains at a high level; the coking coal price is mainly in a weak oscillation, affected by inventory levels and delivery expectations [5] Silicomanganese - A large steel mill in the north increased its silicon manganese procurement volume in April; the silicon manganese price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies [6] - The absolute inventory level at Tianjin Port has increased this week, the spot quotation and trading price of manganese ore have continued to decline, and the forward manganese ore price has also decreased [6] - Pig iron output has a slight increase, silicon manganese supply has slightly decreased from a high level, and the overall inventory has significantly increased, suppressing the price; it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Ferrosilicon - A large steel mill in the north decreased its ferrosilicon procurement volume in April; the ferrosilicon price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies [7] - Pig iron output has a slight increase; export demand generally maintains a month-on-month downward trend, and the marginal impact is small; the output of magnesium metal has decreased, and the secondary demand is average, with overall marginal decline in demand [7] - Ferrosilicon supply has decreased, the market trading level is average, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has increased; its fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [7]

国投期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2025/4/15 黑色板块持仓量维持低位 商品多头占比上升,板块截面排序变化 不大,贵金属动量回升,仍位于截面偏 强的一端。具体来看,贵金属短周期动 量回升,白银边际反弹幅度更大。有色 板块在持仓量上的分化缩窄,锡和铝相 对偏强。黑色板块,期限结构显示预期 回落,铁矿持仓量因子出现较为明显的 CTA 下降,铁矿在截面上相对偏弱。能化板 块内部分化缩窄,能源品种动量有所企 稳。农产品方面,豆油和棕榈油在期限 截面中相对偏弱,豆粕相对偏强。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | सिंह | 0.00 | 0.82 | | 需求 | 0.20 | 0.48 | | 库存 | 0.00 | 1.01 | | 价差 | -0.15 | 0.61 | | 大类累加 | 0.00 | 0.49 | | | | 动量时序 动量截面 期限结构 持仓量 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色板块 | 1.46 | 0. 33 | 1.1 | 0. 33 | | 有色 ...

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