| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年02月03日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | なな女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | 女女女 | | | 菜油 | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | | な☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 本周政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强,国产大豆计划拍卖60608吨,全部成交,底价 4050元/吨，成交均价4298元/吨，溢价210-310元/吨。近期地缘与宏观风险事件比较集中,且方向尚不明确, ...

Report Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Urea | ★★☆ | | Methanol | ★★★ | | Pure Benzene | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★☆☆ | | Plastic | ★★☆ | | PVC | ★☆☆ | | Caustic Soda | ★★★ | | PX | ★★★ | | PTA | ★★★ | | Ethylene Glycol | ★★★ | | Short Fiber | ☆☆☆ | | Glass | ★★★ | | Soda Ash | ☆☆☆ | | Bottle Chip | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★★★ | [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market is weak due to factors such as falling oil prices, reduced downstream demand, and supply pressure [2] - The polyester market faces challenges like price drops, inventory accumulation, and weak demand, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - The pure benzene - styrene market has a weakening fundamental outlook with cost support weakening and supply increasing [5] - The coal - chemical market has a weak methanol market and a range - bound urea market [6] - The chlor - alkali market shows a PVC with a potentially strong trend and a weak caustic soda market [7] - The soda ash - glass market has a soda ash facing supply - demand surplus and a glass with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8] Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures: Falling oil prices lead to a pessimistic market sentiment, and reduced downstream demand weakens the support for propylene [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures: There is supply pressure in the polyethylene market, and weak downstream demand and high - price transaction difficulties exist in the polypropylene market [2] Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices fall due to oil prices. There are different outlooks in different periods, with current weak reality and potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory increases, but there is a possibility of supply - demand improvement in the second quarter, while long - term pressure remains [3] - Short Fiber: Good short - term supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders lead to a price decline following raw materials [3] - Bottle Chip:开工率下降，加工差有所修复，但长期产能压力仍在，短期随原料回落，中期关注库存表现 [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: Spot price in East China rises, and there are expectations of increased utilization of downstream comprehensive production capacity, but the fundamental outlook is weakening [5] - Styrene: Futures price falls due to cost pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol: Futures price drops, with weak coastal demand and difficult port de - stocking, and short - term行情受地缘风险影响较大 [6] - Urea: Spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Night - session trading shows a strong trend, with cost support and good export demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation due to weak cost support and high inventory pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Shows an oscillating trend, with high supply and inventory pressure, and a long - term supply - demand surplus [8] - Glass: Shows a slightly strong oscillating trend, with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8]

| | | | Millio | E No in the | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月03日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下降，压 力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳、下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基 建、制造业投资增速持续回落，1月PMI回 ...

国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2026/2/3 有色板块动量截面分化扩大 商品本周空头占比抬升,主要表现贵金 属和有色板块因子强度大幅下降,黑色 和农产品板块受趋势带动影响偏弱。目 前截面偏强的板块是黑色,截面偏弱的 是有色。具体来看,黄金时序出现动量 反转的迹象,逐步企稳,白银的持仓量 大幅下降。有色板块短周期动量下降, 期限结构分化收窄,锡和镍截面偏弱。 CTA 黑色板块时序动量边际小幅回升,截面 上螺纹偏空焦炭偏强。能化板块短周期 动量截面分化收窄。农产品方面,短周 期动量没有发生明显反转,持仓量维持 中性以下。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 供給 | -0.15 | 0.84 | | 需求 | -0.45 | -0.44 | | 库存 | -0.76 | 0.18 | | 价差 | 0.61 | 0.83 | | 大类累加 | -0.58 | 0.20 | 用 醇 国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 玻 | | | | 铁 | 策略净值方面,上周各因子收益为0,本 | | | 净值曲线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information available in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical premium in the crude oil market has been significantly reversed, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently in the near future due to the uncertainty of US - Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. - Precious metals have entered a consolidation phase, and it is advisable to wait for the volatility to decline [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels before the spring consumption in the Northern Hemisphere is falsified, but may decline around the Spring Festival [4]. - Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and the performance of pre - holiday inventory is worse than in previous years [5]. - The prices of most commodities are influenced by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment, showing different trends of rise, fall, or oscillation [2 - 47]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: The US - Iran situation eases, leading to a sharp reversal of geopolitical premium. Brent and WTI futures fall to $66/barrel and $62/barrel respectively, and SC to 450 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Affected by the decline in market sentiment, strengthening of the US dollar, and rising expectations of US - Iran peace talks, oil products weaken. High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than crude oil, and the high - sulfur > low - sulfur pattern may continue [20]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the decline of crude oil but with a limited range. Supply pressure is limited, and consumption improves year - on - year. The search for alternative crude oil supports the near - month futures contract [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, they showed a weak oscillation. The manufacturing PMI in the US exceeded expectations, and the US dollar continued to rebound. They are in a consolidation phase, and it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The selling pressure is relatively limited. It is supported by the MA40 moving average. It may oscillate at high levels in Q1, but may decline around the Spring Festival [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, it rebounded slightly. The spot premium and discount decreased, and the inventory increased. The price is under short - term pressure [5]. - **Zinc**: After the previous over - rise, the price corrected rapidly. It may enter a sideways consolidation after testing the cost support [7]. - **Lead**: The risk of soft squeeze in the warehouse is reduced. The demand is weak, and the price may be supported at 16,700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel collapsed. The downstream of stainless steel is cautious in purchasing, and the market sentiment is panicked [8]. - **Tin**: It broke below the MA40 moving average, and may continue to decline to the MA60 [9]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It hit the daily limit down. The market participation is affected by exchange policies. The price may oscillate at high levels, and the short - term uncertainty is high [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The price corrected. The spot manganese ore price decreased slightly. The supply is in excess, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price corrected. The demand has some resilience, and the supply changes little. The price is also affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18]. Chemicals - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price fell to around 47,000 yuan/ton. The industry is trying to curb involution, but the demand boost is limited, and the de - stocking is difficult. The futures price will continue to be under pressure [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang plans to cut production by 50% in February. The downstream demand is also weakening. The short - term price will oscillate [12]. - **Urea**: The spot price is stable with a downward trend. The production is increasing, and the demand from the industrial downstream is weakening. It is expected to oscillate within a range [22]. - **Methanol**: The futures price fell. The overseas device operation rate decreased, and the domestic supply increased. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The downstream pre - holiday stocking reduced the inventory in East China ports. The supply will increase, and the price may decline after returning to the fundamental trading logic [24]. - **Styrene**: The price is under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [25]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The decline in oil prices weakens the cost support. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is bearish [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost support and export demand. Caustic soda may also oscillate strongly as the cost support strengthens [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the sharp decline in oil prices, the prices fell. There is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling. There is an expectation of improvement in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern in the short - term but is affected by the decline in raw materials. Bottle - chip has some improvement in processing margin, but the long - term capacity pressure exists [30]. Building Materials - **Glass**: It oscillated strongly at night. There is a risk of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, but the current valuation is low, and it may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [31]. - **20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The price of rubber raw materials in Thailand fell. The supply is decreasing, but the inventory is increasing. The demand is average, and the market sentiment is weak [32]. - **Soda Ash**: It oscillated widely. The inventory is increasing, and the supply is at a high level. It is under long - term supply - demand surplus pressure [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The market is weak. Brazilian soybean harvesting is in the early stage, and the yield is expected to be a record high. US soybeans may be further pressured. The domestic soybean crushing volume will decrease in February [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The rise of oils is driven by macro - factors. After the macro - risk premium is reversed, they are adjusting rapidly [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The import of Australian rapeseed will ease the supply pressure in the future. The supply is expected to be looser, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [36]. - **Soybean No.1**: It is affected by the macro - market adjustment. It is necessary to pay attention to the macro - market guidance [37]. - **Corn**: The national grain sales progress is close to 60%. The price is declining, and the trading is dull before the Spring Festival. The futures price may oscillate weakly [38]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is adjusting strongly at the beginning of the month, while the futures price is weak. There is a risk of a second bottom - finding for the pig price in the medium - to - long - term [39]. - **Eggs**: The pre - holiday high of the spot price has passed, and it will be weak after the Spring Festival. There is an upward momentum for the egg price in the first half of 2026. The futures trading strategy is to wait for the low - point and then buy [40]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend may oscillate. The overall supply and sales are booming, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream demand [41]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the production progress in India and Thailand varies. Domestically, the market focuses on the production volume difference. The short - term price faces pressure [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillates. The pre - holiday inventory is in the peak period, and it is necessary to pay attention to the demand [43]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing. The low inventory supports the price [44]. - **Pulp**: The price is falling. The downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes declined significantly. The short - term adjustment is mainly due to the release of profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical events and market risk - preference changes [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year treasury bond futures led the rise. The strategy is to continue the box - type oscillation, and pay attention to the curve - steepening and flattening opportunities [47].

大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | | 1.80% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | | 0.50% | | 全球债券指数 | | 0.80% | | 全球国债指数 | | 0.96% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | | 0.57% | | | | 分析师 | | 美元指数 | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | -0.40% | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn | 2.51% | | | | 021-68767839 | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 资料来源：Wind 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20251103 -20251107）-美国政府停摆破纪录 大类 资产价格回落 大类资产运行周报（20251110 -20251114）-美国政府停摆结束 关键数 据 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In January, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, a 0.8 pct month - on - month decline and below the five - year average, indicating that the current economic endogenous demand is insufficient and the recovery foundation is not yet solid. The PMI may continue to operate at a low level in February, and the real test of economic momentum will come after March [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Manufacturing Industry - **Price Index**: The purchase price index of major raw materials (56.1%) and the ex - factory price index (50.6%) both returned to the expansion zone for the first time in nearly 20 months. The upstream price increase was not fully transmitted downstream, and the profit repair of enterprises was under pressure [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand weakened synchronously. The production index remained in the expansion zone, while the new order index fell below the boom - bust line. The decline of the new order index was significantly greater than that of the new export order, and the gap between production and demand widened, with the momentum of domestic demand improvement slowing down [2]. - **Enterprise Size**: The differentiation of PMI among large, medium, and small enterprises intensified, indicating that large enterprises are more resilient, while small and medium - sized enterprises are significantly pressured [2]. Non - manufacturing Industry - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry PMI dropped significantly (- 4 pct) due to low temperatures and the approaching Spring Festival, becoming the main drag on the non - manufacturing industry [2]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry declined slightly (- 0.2 pct), and the new order of the non - manufacturing industry has been in the contraction zone for a long time, indicating weak domestic demand [2].

国 投 前 分 铂锂:全线跌停之后 安如泰山 信守承诺 本轮销、纪的大幅回调并非无迹可寻。2026年元旦节后截至1月29日，金、银持续拉升，中途几 无任何像样的回调,带动铂、妃在降波之后二次拉升;铜、铝、锌、锡等有色品种无视需求大幅攀 升，多个贵金属和有色金属商品期权波动率微笑曲线出现严重偏斜。期权不合理的结构，已经向市 场发出至少是阶段性见顶的信号。部分投资者已经关注到该信号，主动规避"泡沫"破裂前的虚假 繁荣。伴随盘面的急速拉升,市场情绪愈发脆弱,多头资金本身已是风声鹤唳,"沃什恐慌"只是 压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。前期铂、密价格抬升并非出于基本面的大幅改善,而是得益于金、银持 续拉升带来的投资需求溢价,当金、银率先回落,恐慌情绪会迅速蔓延至铂、兜。同时, 铂、铝自 身盘子小,资金拥挤度高,前期的非理性上涨必然需要更极端的下跌来修复。 特朗普在关税、地缘等领域态度的反复横跳,美债危机悬而未决,美政府停摆屡见不鲜,在美 国带来的巨大不确定性下,美国部分传统盟友不得不向"中"看以寻求更多稳定性,美元信用承压 的长期逻辑并未根本扭转，所以更长的时间维度上,贵金属估值重心仍有望上移。但是，地缘上 看,美火速抓捕马杜 ...

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| | 操作评级 | 2026年02月02日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | な女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | な女女 | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 上周铜以极端速度基本兑现海外投行已上调的年度涨势目标，价格明显与供求基本面背离。目前，铜资源溢价 已快速降温，基本面角度，一季度全球铜精矿供需最紧、TC低位再下调，在北半球春季旺季强弱不能证 ...