| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | な☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆近期政策端竞价销售的表现为出高溢价、高成交率的特点,对价格有一定的引导。现货端国产大豆市 场呈现优质优价的特点，供应端基层粮源偏紧，价格上涨之后也呈现对需求积极性的抑制。短期持续关注国产 大豆政策和现货市场的表现。 【 ...

| | | | | SUIL FUIURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月19日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | なな☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | な☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所回落。螺纹表需有所回升，产量稍有回落，累库节奏放缓。热卷需求好转，产量小幅回升,库存继续下降,压力 仍有持缓解。钢厂利润边际修复、由于下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量有所回落。从12月数据看，地产投资降幅 继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢 ...

大宗商品周度报告 2026年1月19日 能源方面，伊朗局势紧张但目前仍在可控范围，地缘政治风险溢价相应 回落。从油价波动显著加剧的表现来看，地缘反复下市场对此逐渐脱敏，除 非冲突实际发生，否则地缘溢价空间有限。EIA最新周度数据显示美国商业 原油库存意外大增，2026年第一季度的全球原油供需结构显示库存压力显 著，供应过剩仍是压制油价的主要因素，油价短期或承压运行。 化工方面，聚酯品种来看，油价回落，成本支撑弱化，需求偏弱下短期 上行驱动减弱。建材品种方面，PVC开工小幅回升，部分企业出口增加，下 游开工下滑，采购积极性不高，继续关注出口退税是否会带动抢出口带来月 差套利机会。2026年PVC有望去产能，期价重心预计会上抬。玻璃产能继 续压缩至15.01万吨，长期玻璃供给缩减，供需压力缓解，下游临近放假，或 将迎来季节性累库。 农产品方面，巴西地理与统计研究所(IBGE)预计巴西2026年大豆产量 较2025年增加2.5%。目前拉尼娜影响逐步消退，南美丰产预期重回主要交 易逻辑。上周美国生物质燃料政策确定性增强，预计3月初公布政策。短期油 脂油料或震荡运行。 ●行情回顾：上周商品市场整体收涨1.13%，其中贵 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 16th, the US December CPI year - on - year growth rate met expectations and remained the same as the previous value. Global geopolitical risks continued to impact the market. The US dollar index rose weekly. Stocks and commodities performed strongly, while the bond market declined. In terms of the US dollar, commodities > stocks > bonds. In the domestic market, the stock market was divided, and the bond market and commodities rose weekly. Commodities > bonds > stocks. Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes [5][8][19]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Major Asset Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, market sentiment was relatively cautious. Trump called for setting a 10% credit card interest rate cap starting from January 20, 2026, pressuring US stocks. Most global stock markets rose, with the Asia - Pacific region leading in gains. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose weekly. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.75% weekly and 5.62% year - to - date, while the MSCI US fell 0.38% weekly but rose 1.39% year - to - date [10][13][14]. - **Global Bond Market**: Recently, most Fed officials' statements were hawkish, cooling market expectations of interest rate cuts. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 6BP to 4.24% weekly. The bond market was weak, and globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, data such as the US November retail sales month - on - month growth rate were good, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was volatile and strong. The US dollar index rose 0.23% weekly [16][17]. - **Global Commodity Market**: Geopolitical factors supported the weekly rise of international oil prices. Precious metal prices rose, while most non - ferrous metal and agricultural product prices fell. International silver prices rose significantly [17]. Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: Market risk appetite declined. Most major broad - based A - share indices rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks was weak. Computer and electronics sectors led in gains, while the military and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% weekly [20][22]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From January 12th to January 16th, the central bank's net open - market operations injected 111.28 billion yuan. The capital market fluctuated, and the bond market was strong weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led in gains. For example, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 9.41% weekly [24][25]. Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes. It is necessary to pay attention to their subsequent changes [4][26].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current pig price is still at the bottom of the bear - market cycle of the pig cycle. Considering the slight de - stocking of the breeding sow inventory in the fourth quarter of 2025, the inflection point of the pig slaughter volume is expected to appear around the middle of 2026. The pig slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase in the first half of 2026, and there is a high probability that the pig price will hit the bottom again after the Spring Festival due to the off - season demand [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Pig Slaughter - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million heads, an increase of 17.16 million heads or 2.4% compared with the previous year. The growth rate of pig slaughter was further expanded compared with the first three quarters (in the first three quarters, the national pig slaughter was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads or 1.8%). The pig slaughter volume in 2025 was the second - highest in the past 10 years, but lower than that in 2023. The continuous release of the pig slaughter pressure in 2025 led to the pig price falling to the historical low range of 10 - 11 yuan/kg in the second half of the year [2][3] Pork Production - In 2025, the pork production was 59.38 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons or 4.1%, reaching a record high. The annual growth rate of pork production was also further expanded compared with that in the first three quarters (in the first three quarters, the pork production was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons or 3.0%). The year - on - year growth rate of pork production in 2025 was higher than the growth rate of pig slaughter volume, mainly because the pig slaughter weight remained at a high level throughout 2025 [2][4][5] Pig Inventory - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, an increase of 2.24 million heads or 0.5% compared with the end of the previous year. This was mainly due to the continuous recovery of the breeding sow population in the previous period, which led to an upward trend in the pig slaughter volume. It is expected that the medium - term pig inventory will still be at a relatively high level [3][5] Breeding Sow Inventory - At the end of 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a decrease of 1.16 million heads or 2.9%, and it was currently 101.6% of the normal reserve. The de - stocking of the breeding sow inventory accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2025, benefiting from the national advocacy of anti - involution in the pig industry and the further expansion of the industry's loss [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It assesses the impact of geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes on prices and provides trading strategies for each sector [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks in Iran are controllable, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In Q1 2026, global crude oil supply exceeds demand, and inventory pressure is significant, which suppresses oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical risks continue to affect the fuel oil market. Geopolitical threats may tighten Asian supply, supporting high - sulfur cracking spreads in the short term, but the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials will gradually ease. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [22] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt follows crude oil price movements but with a relatively limited amplitude. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil [23] - **Urea**: The weekend urea spot market was stable. With the approaching spring demand and macro - positive factors, the market is expected to oscillate strongly [24] - **Methanol**: After the Iranian geopolitical situation cooled, the methanol market had a large - amplitude rise and then a fall. Overseas plant operation rates are low, and port inventories are decreasing. However, demand is weakening, and the short - term market is in a multi - empty game [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US economic data shows resilience, and the Fed's short - term interest rate cut is unlikely. Geopolitical tensions support a long - term bullish view on precious metals [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper market oscillated around 100,000. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, LME spot premiums, and domestic copper social inventories. The "15th Five - Year Plan" investment in the power grid has a 7% annual compound growth rate. Continue the strategy of selling call options at high levels [4] - **Aluminum**: The short - term funds' sentiment is volatile. Wait for the volatility to decline before participating. Aluminum smelters can sell and hedge at high prices in the current range [5] - **Zinc**: After the market digested the news, it will gradually return to fundamental trading. High prices have a negative impact on consumption, but the supply pressure is not large. The Shanghai zinc price may correct to 24,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: There are both maintenance and restart of lead smelters. The refined - scrap price difference is 200 yuan/ton. The Shanghai lead price has a large downward pressure at the 17,800 yuan/ton level, and attention should be paid to the 17,000 yuan/ton support [9] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2026. The market is mainly trading on the South American bumper harvest expectation. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US biomass fuel policy is expected to improve the marginal demand for US soybean oil. Palm oil has short - term high - inventory pressure. The overall view is for range - bound oscillations [37] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The China - Canada trade agreement may lead to a marginal relaxation of domestic rapeseed supply, putting short - term pressure on rapeseed prices [38] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures oscillated. The national corn spot price was stable with a slight increase. The short - term trend is wide - range oscillation, and seasonal risks should be noted later [40] - **Cotton**: The US cotton signing data is good, but the domestic Zhengzhou cotton market is in adjustment. The downstream demand is average, and the short - term fundamental driving force is weakened [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is affected by different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic market's trading focus is on the production volume difference. The Zhengzhou sugar's rebound is expected to be limited [44] - **Apple**: The apple futures price rose and then fell. The market's trading focus is on demand. The high acquisition price and strong reluctance to sell may affect the inventory reduction speed [45] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: The A - share market opened high and closed low. The stock index is expected to change from a one - way rapid rise to an oscillatingly strong trend. The upward slope will slow down. Attention should be paid to the transition of the upward driver and geopolitical disturbances [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures showed a differentiated performance, and the curve continued to steepen. The market is expected to oscillate narrowly. There may be an opportunity to flatten the curve when the 30 - 10y spread reaches 50bp [49] - **Shipping Index**: The near - month contracts of the container shipping index (European line) will oscillate in the short term, and the long - term contracts are under the pressure of the resumption of shipping. The contract rules will be adjusted [21]

| > | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月16日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数录得19.8万人低于预期为12月以来新低，美国经济保持韧性，美联储多位 官员讲话对短期内降息持否定态度。美媒称特朗普哲缓决定是否对伊朗发动军事打击,短期避险情绪有所降 温,黄金表现抗跌,美国对于全球秩序的挑战令贵金属中期维持强势,多头思路不变。 ★南美局势 --- 19知情人士称，美军已扣押第六艘与委内瑞拉有关的油轮。②美国正向墨西哥施压,要求允 许美军跨境打击贩毒。③特朗普称会前往委内瑞 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a short-term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current disk, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for the upward trend, but poor operability on the disk [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel and hot-rolled coil [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Silicomanganese: The rating is not provided in the given content Core Views - The steel market has minor supply-demand contradictions, with a cautious market sentiment. The disk is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke market is likely to follow a weak oscillation pattern. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues and the impact of relevant policies [4] - The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory increase and policy expectations [6] - The silicomanganese market is affected by factors such as inventory structure and cost support. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost changes [7] - The ferrosilicon market is affected by policies and cost factors. The demand has certain resilience, and attention should be paid to relevant impacts and cost support [8] Summary by Directory Steel - Today's disk rose first and then fell. The apparent demand for thread steel increased this week, with a slight decline in production and a slower inventory accumulation rhythm. The demand for hot-rolled coil improved, with a slight increase in production and a continued decline in inventory, but the pressure still needs to be relieved [2] - Steel mill profits have marginally recovered. Due to insufficient downstream carrying capacity, blast furnace复产 has slowed down, and pig iron production has declined [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Overall domestic demand remains weak, but steel exports reached a new high in December [2] - The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the market sentiment is cautious, and the disk is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in the overall market trend [2] Iron Ore - Today's disk showed a weak oscillation. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally compared with the previous period, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remains high in the short term, and port inventories continue to accumulate [3] - On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season has improved compared with the previous period. This week, pig iron production stopped increasing and started to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [3] - Steel mill inventories of imported ore have increased but are still at a low level. The expectation of winter storage replenishment demand still exists [3] - The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating. The fundamental situation of iron ore itself is relatively loose. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] Coke - The price oscillated downward during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been proposed and is expected to be implemented next week. Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly decreased, and coke inventories have slightly increased [4] - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream pig iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong [4] - The coke disk has a premium. The market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, affected by the increase in the total inventory of coking coal and the relatively high customs clearance data of Mongolian coal, the price is likely to follow a weak oscillation pattern [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated downward during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,440 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the spot auction transactions have improved. Driven by the increase in the disk price, the transaction price has increased [6] - The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly decreased, reflecting the winter storage actions in the market [6] - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream pig iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage continues. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of pressing prices for raw materials is still strong [6] - The coking coal disk has a premium over Mongolian coal. The market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, affected by the increase in inventory and customs clearance data, the price is likely to be weak and volatile in the short term [6] Silicomanganese - The price oscillated downward during the day. Driven by the rebound of the disk, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the port inventory of manganese ore, and the balance is relatively fragile [7] - The smelting end of silicomanganese pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the formula of manganese ore for furnace charging. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [7] - The spot transaction price of manganese ore has increased last week. The pig iron production has decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicomanganese has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support [7] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated downward during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices [8] - The pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. The export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand still has certain resilience [8] - The supply of ferrosilicon has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having their own supply - demand and price characteristics. Some products are affected by supply shortages, while others are influenced by demand changes, geopolitical factors, and production schedules [2][3][5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Supply was tight, inventory was controllable, and some offers continued to rise. Downstream factories followed well, driving up the trading center [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures also fluctuated. For polyethylene, pre - sales during the Spring Festival continued, the overall transaction center of spot goods moved up, and production confidence was enhanced. For polypropylene, although the futures maintained a high level, the market was cautious due to concerns about demand [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures fluctuated, and spot prices in East China continued to decline slightly. Supply was abundant, and the port was accumulating inventory. In the short - term, it would fluctuate due to geopolitical risks, and in the long - term, de - stocking was difficult [3]. - Styrene futures had a narrow - range consolidation. The supply - demand was in a tight balance, the port inventory was decreasing, the export market was good, and the downstream was bullish [3]. Polyester - As oil prices fell, the cost support for PX and PTA weakened. In the short - term, the upward drive for PX was weak, but the medium - term outlook was positive. PTA's main driver was from raw materials, and the processing margin would moderately recover [5]. - For ethylene glycol, new domestic plants were put into operation, while overseas plants stopped production. The industry was mixed. In the short - term, falling oil prices were a major negative, but in the second quarter, there were expectations of improvement [5]. - Short - fiber enterprises had low inventory, but downstream orders were weak. Demand would continue to decline, and the price would fluctuate with raw materials [5]. - Bottle - chip production decreased, downstream demand was for rigid needs, and the processing margin recovered, but long - term capacity pressure remained [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Due to the cooling of the geopolitical situation in Iran, the methanol market declined. Overseas plant operation rates were low, and the port was de - stocking. However, with demand weakening, the de - stocking speed was expected to slow down, and the market was in a multi - empty game [6]. - Urea futures declined slightly, while spot prices were stable with a slight increase. With the approaching of spring demand and positive macro factors, the market was expected to be strong [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC weakened within the day. Although production increased slightly and exports of some enterprises increased, downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. In 2026, it was expected to reduce capacity, and the futures price center would rise [7]. - Caustic soda was in a weak position, and the industry was accumulating inventory. Although the profit of integrated enterprises was okay, the industry was generally in a loss, and it was necessary to track whether there would be production cuts [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated within the day. Production continued to rise, supply pressure was high, downstream procurement was weak, and the industry was accumulating inventory. It was recommended to short on rebounds [8]. - Glass was strong within the day and continued to de - stock. However, production lines were in a loss, capacity was compressed, and demand was insufficient. It might accumulate inventory seasonally, but in the long - term, supply reduction would relieve pressure, and it was recommended to buy on dips [8].

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding operation suggestions, mostly suggesting temporary observation [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined. It was previously supported by reality, expectations, and funds. Downstream demand is average, and the reduction of Xinjiang's planting area needs further observation. Short - term adjustment may continue. As of December, national commercial cotton inventory was 5784700 tons, and as of January 8, cumulative processed lint was 6969000 tons. Spinning mills' raw material demand has resilience, but downstream orders are average. Suggest temporary observation [2] Sugar - Overnight US sugar fluctuated. In the international market, Brazil's mid - south production data in December was neutral. The current season's production is ending, and attention turns to the next season's output forecast. Meteorological models show less rainfall in Brazil in Q1. The sugar - alcohol ratio has dropped, and the next season's sugar production in Brazil may decrease. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Sales data was relatively positive, but sales volume dropped due to bearish sentiment. Although Guangxi has a strong production increase expectation in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. Suggest temporary observation [3] Apple - Futures prices declined. Spot prices were stable. During the Spring Festival stocking period, merchants mainly packaged their own goods, and the purchase of farmers' apples was less. The quantity of packaged gift boxes decreased slightly. As of January 15, national cold - storage apple inventory was 6555700 tons, a 7% year - on - year decrease, and the de - stocking volume was 180000 tons, a 9.9% year - on - year increase. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. Due to high purchase prices and strong reluctance to sell, the de - stocking speed may be affected. Suggest a bearish operation idea [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Futures prices of natural rubber (RU), 20 - rubber (NR), and butadiene rubber (BR) declined. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, while synthetic rubber spot prices dropped. Global natural rubber supply is in the reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate was stable this week. Domestic tire operating rates rebounded significantly. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 568200 tons, while China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased to 146000 tons. Demand is gradually recovering, with a decrease in natural rubber supply, an increase in synthetic rubber supply, an increase in natural rubber inventory, and a decrease in synthetic rubber inventory. Cost support is strong, but market sentiment is weak. Suggest temporary observation [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline. Constrained by weak downstream demand, the short - term fundamentals are average. As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2014000 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month increase. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, and foreign offers for both have increased. Paper mills purchase pulp based on rigid demand, and the increase in base paper prices is relatively weak. Suggest temporary observation [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices were stable. Foreign offers decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. Short - term port arrivals will decrease. As of January 9, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 57500 cubic meters, a 1.77% week - on - week increase. After entering the off - season, demand decreased, but it was still relatively high week - on - week. As of January 9, the total national port log inventory was 2690000 cubic meters, a 0.75% month - on - month increase. Low inventory supports prices. Suggest temporary observation [8]