Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is difficult to increase, and a supply gap is expected to accumulate in November. The coking coal production in Wuhai has been low since the second half of this year, and it is expected to remain difficult to increase in the remaining time of this year. With safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines in November and the impact of political chaos on Mongolian coal supply, the supply gap of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is expected to accumulate. Downstream coking enterprises can only passively accept the price increase of coking coal until significant production cuts by steel mills in December [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Background - Wuhai is an important production area of high - strength coking coal. It has rich coal resources, with an annual coal production capacity of about 40 million tons. Most of the coal produced is coking coal, mainly fat coal, main coking coal, and 1/3 coking coal, which are high - quality skeleton coal types for coking, but have a high sulfur content. In recent years, the price difference with Shanxi coking coal has narrowed, and it has lost some cost - effectiveness. Since May this year, there have been reports of large - scale shutdowns of coking coal mines in Wuhai, and the production has decreased significantly in the second half of the year [3][7]. 2. Wuhai Open - pit Mines are Continuously Shut Down and Difficult to Resume Production - All open - pit mines in Wuhai are basically shut down, mainly due to coal mine capacity integration, high - intensity environmental inspections, self - inspection of over - production, and tax issues. Capacity integration is to solve the problem of cross - ownership of coal mines between Wuhai and neighboring areas. Environmental inspections have been high - intensity since June. The over - production of open - pit mines has been significantly suppressed, and many private mines lack the motivation to resume production. It is unlikely that coking coal mines in Wuhai will resume production in the short term, and the supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is likely to decrease rather than increase in November [8][9][11]. 3. Coking Enterprises in Wuhai and Surrounding Areas are Marginally Profitable and Have Low In - Furnace Coal Inventory - Wuhai is the main coking supply area in Inner Mongolia, with a coking production capacity of over 30 million tons, accounting for more than half of the total capacity in the autonomous region. Due to the abnormal production of local coal mines, local coking plants have increased the purchase of Shanxi coal. Large - scale coking plants with long chemical product chains can make a profit of about 50 yuan/ton, while small and medium - sized coking plants are basically at the break - even point. The in - furnace coal inventory of coking plants is low, with raw coal available for 5 - 15 days, and they have no intention to replenish inventory for the time being. The overall coal - coking inventory in Wuhai is low, and it is expected to be even more in short supply in November [12]. 4. Mongolian Coal Imports are Affected by Political Disturbances in Mongolia - The customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has decreased from 1,200 trucks per day to 600 - 900 trucks per day. The political turmoil in Mongolia may affect the production and export of state - owned coal mines such as ETT. The large - scale electronic auction of Mongolian coal has squeezed the long - term contract resources, resulting in a decline in the import volume of some large - scale trading companies. The long - term contract sales volume of imported Mongolian coal is expected to be difficult to increase this year. The import proportion of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal has decreased significantly, and more Mongolian 1/3 coking coal and weathered coal will be imported in the future. The supply of imported Mongolian coal is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the resources of Mongolian No. 5 and No. 3 will be relatively tight [14][17]. 5. Research Summary - The continuous low production of coking coal in Wuhai since the second half of this year has a significant impact on the national coking coal market. The coal mine resource integration in Wuhai takes a long time, environmental inspections remain high - intensity, and there will be safety inspections in November. It is expected that the supply of coking coal in Inner Mongolia will be difficult to increase in the remaining time of this year. With the safety inspections in Shanxi coal mines in November and the impact of political chaos on Mongolian coal supply, a supply gap of coking coal in Inner Mongolia is expected to accumulate in November. Downstream coking enterprises can only passively accept the price increase of coking coal until significant production cuts by steel mills in December [18].

数据来源：同花顺iFinD，国投期货 注：趋势度= (收盘价-开盘价) / (最高价-最低价)；投机度= 成交量 / 持仓量 4.86%焦炭 2.06%硅铁 5.89%焦煤 1.43%不锈钢 0.94%锰硅 1.44%热卷 0.3%螺纹钢 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 日 均 持 仓 量 当 周 环 比 （ % ） 日均成交量当周环比（%） 黑色期货主连周涨跌幅% 数据来源：同花顺iFinD，国投期货（实体圆表示上涨，空心圆表示下跌，圆圈大小代表涨跌幅绝对值大小） 周度期货价量总览 商品类别 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 波动率变化(%) 投机度 趋势度 资金变动 黄金 938.10 -6.17% 33.06% 35.38% 2.93 -0.12 -39.42 白银 11,332.00 -7.49% 33.91% 27.25% 3.77 -0.20 -28.50 铜 87,720.00 3.95% 22.82% -0.90% 0.55 0.46 54.81 2025年10月24日 星 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年10月24日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价连续第二个交易日反弹,布伦特12合约涨2.5%。俄乌地缘风险的急剧升温继续主导油 价反弹， 美国制裁的俄罗斯Rosneft和卢克石油在俄产能和炼能占比分别为46%、40%；周四欧盟正 式通过第19轮对俄制裁，涉及包括2家炼厂、1家国有贸易公司在内的4家中国企业，相关供应链风 险在中国购买俄油的贸易环节、卸港环节已有所显现。地缘风险带动油市短期震荡偏强,关注24- 27日中美马来会谈及后续俄美对话的进展。 (责金属) 隔夜金银反弹。美欧对俄执行新一轮制裁，中美即将举行新一轮贸易谈判，美国出动轰炸机飞越委 内瑞拉附近空域,全球局势不确定性强,风险情绪易产生摇摆。短期责金属可能进入阶段性高位震 荡，建议暂时观望等待参与机会。今晚关注美国9月CPI数据发布。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜增仓延续涨势，市场关注中美商务谈判形势。高金铜比提升同价多配韧性。昨日国内现铜 报85490元，上海升水10元，周内钢联社库减少5700至18.98万吨。暂时观望。 (铝) 原油带动商品普涨，沪铝延续震荡偏强。本周海外某铝厂因事故减产 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, with Brent's December contract rising 2.5%. Geopolitical risks in Russia-Ukraine and EU sanctions on Russia are driving the short-term bullish trend. Attention is on the China-US-Malaysia talks from 24 - 27th and subsequent Russia-US dialogues [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, gold and silver rebounded. Global uncertainties may lead to short-term high-level oscillations. It is advisable to wait for opportunities. Focus on the US September CPI data release tonight [2]. Copper - Overnight, Shanghai copper continued its upward trend. The high gold-copper ratio enhances the resilience of copper price allocation. The domestic spot copper price was 85,490 yuan, with a Shanghai premium of 10 yuan. The weekly inventory decreased by 5,700 tons to 189,800 tons. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Aluminum - Crude oil drove commodity prices up, and Shanghai aluminum continued its bullish trend. An overseas aluminum plant cut production by 200,000 tons due to an accident. Supply is expected to grow slowly. Demand is lackluster. Temporarily view the upside space with caution [4]. Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and inventory is rising. Supply is in excess, and spot prices are falling. The price is approaching the cash loss in Shanxi and Henan. It is expected to operate weakly [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The Baotai ADC12 spot price is 20,700 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and tax policy adjustments may increase costs. However, industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are high. It follows aluminum price fluctuations [6]. Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 month premium has dropped to $220/ton. The tight overseas spot market supports the high-level oscillation of LME zinc. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas one. The export window is open, and the outer market pulls the inner market. The support level for Shanghai zinc is at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the short-term upside is capped at 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The import window is open, and the outer market has strong support at $1,960/ton. Domestic refineries are in the transition from production cuts to resumption. SMM lead social inventory is at a low of 37,700 tons. Some regions have tight lead ingot supplies, supporting the market. Shanghai lead is expected to continue its upward trend [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, but market trading was light. Downstream demand recovery is limited, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The overall confidence in the spot market is weak. Technically, Shanghai nickel is bearish [9]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices rose. LME tin is being watched for its performance against the MA20 moving average. The LME 0 - 3 month spot premium has risen to $100. Low imports of tin concentrate in September and limited resumption of Myanmar mines support tin prices. The upside space is limited [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, and market trading picked up. Demand in the peak season is still strong, and the inventory has decreased. Technically, it is short-term bullish [11]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures oscillated upward, partly driven by the black - series market. If coal policy tightens, cost support will strengthen. In October, supply is differentiated. Supply pressure is accumulating, and the weekly social inventory has slightly increased. In November, production cuts in the southwest are likely, and the supply - demand contradiction may ease. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [12]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded after approaching the lower end of the range. Spot prices are stable. Production cuts in October were less than expected, and the probability of silicon wafer production cuts in November - December has increased. The fundamentals lack positive support, and the market is expected to oscillate [13]. Iron Ore - Overnight, iron ore futures oscillated. Supply is strong globally, and domestic arrivals have decreased from the high level. Port inventory is increasing. Demand is weakening as hot metal production declines. Market sentiment has improved due to expectations of policy support. The short - term trend is expected to be bullish [15]. Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price increases has started. Coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Inventory is decreasing slightly. The market may be bullish as the cost is expected to rise [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Political instability in Mongolia has raised concerns about coal imports. Production has slightly increased, and spot auction prices are rising. Inventory has increased slightly. The market may be bullish as the cost is expected to rise [17]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices oscillated upward, driven by steel prices. Demand is supported by high hot metal production. Production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly decreased. Manganese ore prices are rising slightly. Attention is on external trade frictions [18]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices oscillated upward, driven by steel prices. Demand is supported by high hot metal production. Export demand is stable, and secondary demand has slightly increased. Supply is high, and inventory is decreasing. Attention is on external trade frictions [19]. Group 2: Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, fuel oil followed the upward trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil is short - term bullish due to geopolitical factors but may face supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak but may improve in the fourth quarter [21]. Asphalt - Crude oil led the rise in oil product futures, and BU continued its upward trend. The weekly asphalt开工率 decreased, and November refinery production is expected to decline. Social inventory is steadily decreasing, and factory inventory is decreasing slowly. The short - term market is in a tight balance, and the rising cost supports the price [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - This week, LPG supply increased slightly. Chemical demand is growing, and combustion demand is expected to strengthen. Refinery and port inventories have decreased. The market is supported by fundamental improvements and rising crude oil prices [23]. Urea - With the end of rainy weather, agricultural demand for urea has increased, and production enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed. Export policy is unclear, and port inventory has decreased significantly. Supply is still abundant, but domestic supply has decreased slightly. The short - term market is expected to oscillate bullishly [24]. Methanol - Imported methanol unloading is slower than expected, and port inventory has slightly increased. Domestic plant utilization has decreased, and the inventory of production enterprises is flat. Port inventory is high. In the short term, the market is affected by policy factors. In the long term, import supply pressure is expected to decrease, and the price may oscillate upward [25]. Pure Benzene - Driven by rising oil prices, pure benzene futures rebounded. Last week, downstream buying was weak, and port inventory increased. After the price decline, short - term supply concerns and rising oil prices have boosted buying. In the medium term, high imports remain a pressure. Attention is on port inventory accumulation [26]. Styrene - Driven by cost, styrene is short - term bullish. However, high inventory may limit the upside [27]. Polypropylene, Polyethylene, and Propylene - Propylene prices are stable at a low level. Polyethylene prices are slightly rising due to positive macro factors and cost support, but downstream resistance is strong. Polypropylene trading sentiment has improved, but real - demand growth is limited [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply is increasing as maintenance ends. Domestic demand is stable, and exports are good. Cost support is not obvious, and the market may operate at the bottom. For caustic soda, supply is fluctuating slightly. Non - aluminum downstream inventory replenishment has decreased inventory, but high inventory pressure remains [29]. PX and PTA - Rising oil prices have provided support for PX and PTA. The textile market has improved, and polyester production is expected to be stable. Upcoming refinery maintenance may affect PX supply. PTA processing margins are weak, and new plant trials are expected. The short - term trend is bullish, but in the medium term, inventory accumulation may be a concern [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Domestic production has decreased due to refinery maintenance, but new plant supply has increased. East China port inventory has decreased. Supply is expected to contract, and demand is improving. The short - term trend is bullish, but medium - term inventory accumulation is a risk [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin - Short - fiber production is at a high level, and inventory is decreasing. The spot price is strong, and the processing margin is improving. Raw material price increases have boosted downstream buying. The short - term trend is bullish. For bottle - grade resin, demand is weakening due to the season, and inventory is increasing [32]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans continued to rise, and the oil - meal ratio decreased. Domestic soybean meal inventory is still high. Overall, the supply in the fourth quarter is stable, but it may tighten in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations deteriorate. The market is waiting for the outcome of the Sino - US trade talks [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. If supply decreases rapidly, the price will be more resilient. Currently, the supply increase in Malaysia is larger than usual, and short - term price corrections are possible. In the long term, it is advisable to go long on vegetable oils at low prices [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Overnight, overseas rapeseed futures were boosted by oil prices. Domestic rapeseed is expected to follow. The Sino - US trade talks are crucial. Australian rapeseed is being harvested, and Russian rapeseed exports to China may increase. There is a risk of inventory accumulation for domestic rapeseed oil. A short - rapeseed cross - product strategy is recommended [38]. Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybean prices rose, following the overseas market. The market is optimistic about the trade talks. Domestic soybean auctions had some transactions at 3,900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is oscillating. Short - term attention is on policy guidance [39]. Corn - The "market - based purchase + policy - supported storage" system is emphasized. Northeast corn prices are slightly rising, and Shandong's supply is increasing. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The supply will remain abundant in the next two weeks, and Dalian corn may continue to be weak at the bottom, with increased volatility [40]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures increased in position. Near - month contracts fluctuated narrowly, and far - month contracts hit new lows. Spot prices rebounded slightly. The enthusiasm for second - round fattening has decreased. Although supply pressure is high, the large price difference between fat and lean pigs may slow down supply release. Consumption is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. However, due to continuous supply pressure, it is advisable to go short after the price rebounds. The pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, with the October low likely to be the first bottom [41]. Eggs - Egg futures decreased in position by 30,000 lots and rose strongly. The main December contract rose over 3%. Spot prices mostly increased. Vegetable prices rose after the National Day. In the short term, risk avoidance is necessary. In the medium term, the industry needs to accelerate the culling of old hens. Cold - storage eggs are still a potential pressure. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the medium - term trend may be bearish [42]. Cotton - US cotton prices rose. Brazilian cotton production is expected to be high. Zhengzhou cotton also rose. Spot prices were stable, and trading was average. Xinjiang machine - picked cotton prices are slightly rising. The national new cotton picking progress is 58.8%, and the cumulative processed lint is 982,000 tons. Ginning mills are cautious in purchasing. The peak season demand is weak. The short - term rise is considered a rebound. Attention is on Sino - US relations and production [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. Brazilian sugar production is high, and the production in India and Thailand is also expected to be good. The international supply is abundant, and there is pressure on the upside. In China, the market is focusing on the new - season production estimate. The rainfall in Guangxi has been good since July, and the sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be positive. Attention is on the weather and sugarcane growth [44]. Apples - Apple futures are bullish. The market is focusing on cold - storage inventory. The national apple bagging volume has decreased slightly, and the production may be lower due to smaller fruit sizes. Farmers and traders are more willing to store apples, and the initial cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. Attention is on the storage situation [45]. Wood - Wood futures oscillated. The overseas price is high, and the domestic price is weak. Traders are less likely to increase imports, and the domestic supply may remain low. Port shipments are above 60,000 cubic meters, supporting the price. The inventory is low. The supply - demand situation has improved, and a long - position strategy is recommended [46]. Pulp - Pulp futures rose. The spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp are stable. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports decreased by 0.3 million tons to 2.074 million tons, a 0.1% decrease. September imports were 2.9525 million tons, an increase of 272,500 tons year - on - year. The domestic port inventory is high, and demand is weak. The rising price of overseas broad - leaf pulp provides some support. It is advisable to wait and see [47]. Group 4: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market rebounded at the end of the day after a low - level oscillation. All three major indices closed in the green. Stock index futures also rose, with IH leading at 0.58%. All contracts were at a discount to the underlying index. Overnight, overseas stock markets rose, and US bond yields increased. The Sino - US trade talks from 24 - 27th and the 20th Fourth Plenary Session's goals are attracting attention. In the medium term, the focus should be on the technology - growth sector, but short - term market style rotation may occur [48]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The Sino - US trade talks may boost market risk appetite. The structural differentiation in the Treasury bond futures market continues, and the steepening of the yield curve may end [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly indicated [1] - Methanol: Not clearly indicated [1] - Propylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not clearly indicated [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The market shows a complex situation with different trends for various chemical products. Short - term and mid - term trends vary, and investment strategies such as anti - arbitrage, long - position allocation, and short - selling at high prices are recommended according to different product characteristics [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with prices at a low level and a strong market wait - and - see mood [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also rose. For polyethylene, the macro - environment improved, but downstream resistance limited transactions. For polypropylene, trading sentiment improved, but demand from downstream factories was still weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rebounded due to oil price increases. There was a risk of port inventory accumulation in the short - term, and mid - term imports were a major pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose. Although there were rumors of production cuts, high inventory limited the upside [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded with oil prices. The short - term rebound's sustainability depends on oil prices, and mid - term anti - arbitrage is recommended [5] - Ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but faces inventory accumulation pressure in the mid - term [5] - Short fiber is recommended for long - position allocation, while bottle chip demand weakens and is mainly driven by cost [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices may fluctuate within a range in the short - term and tend to rise in the medium - to - long - term [6] - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly within a range in the short - term [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range [7] - Caustic soda may operate at a low level within a range [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is recommended for short - selling at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass prices may have limited downward movement, and selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [8]

Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆, indicates a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the market [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★★, represents a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Corn**: ★☆☆, shows a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the market [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★★★ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is highly influenced by Sino - US trade relations. Without trade improvement, the market will likely continue to fluctuate. There are many uncertainties, so it's advisable to wait and see [3] - In the long - term, it's recommended to allocate vegetable oils at low prices, but be cautious about short - term price adjustments [4] - For the rapeseed sector, pay attention to cross - competitor strategies with rapeseed products as the short side [6] - For corn, the market will likely continue to be weak at the bottom, with increased volatility [7] - For live pigs, expect a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] - For eggs, the short - term is to wait and see, and a decline may occur in the medium - term [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Beans 1 - Domestic soybeans rose following the overseas market. The market is optimistic about trade negotiations. Domestic soybeans were auctioned at 3900 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is oscillating. Keep an eye on policy guidance [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal increased by 2.3% with 170,000 lots traded. The oil - meal ratio dropped significantly. Domestic soybean meal inventory is still high. If Sino - US trade relations deteriorate, supply may be tight in Q1 next year. The view is that without trade improvement, Dalian soybean meal will likely continue to oscillate. Wait and see in the current data vacuum period [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The oil - meal ratio dropped sharply. Palm oil enters the减产 cycle in Q4. If supply drops quickly, palm oil price will be resilient; otherwise, be cautious about price adjustments. Malaysian palm oil production is expected to increase by 10.77% from Oct 1 - 20. Expect long - term bullishness on vegetable oils, but be cautious about short - term price corrections [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal rose and rapeseed oil fell, underperforming their competitors. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations. Australian rapeseed is being harvested, and Russian rapeseed has been launched. There is a risk of inventory accumulation for domestic rapeseed oil. Consider cross - competitor strategies with rapeseed products as the short side [6] Corn - Corn futures were slightly stronger. The "market - based purchase + policy - based procurement" system is emphasized. Northeast new corn supply is increasing, and downstream demand is just for necessity. Corn will likely continue to be weak at the bottom with increased volatility [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures increased in positions. Spot prices rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is still high, and there may be a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures decreased in positions by 30,000 lots and rose by over 3%. Spot prices rose in most areas. Be cautious in the short - term. In the medium - term, the industry needs to eliminate old chickens, and there is potential pressure from cold - stored eggs [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand, policy expectations, and cost support, with the price rebounding but limited by demand [1] - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, due to factors like supply and demand changes and policy expectations [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, supported by downstream demand and cost expectations [3][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are driven by steel, with overall good demand and attention to external trade frictions [6][7] Summaries by Related Categories Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded with fluctuations. Thread demand recovered this week but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand rose, production was flat, and inventory decreased. Iron - water production remained high, but downstream acceptance was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. From September data, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The market rebounded due to policy expectations and cost increases, but the weak demand limited the rebound space [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures were volatile and strong. Supply was strong globally, domestic arrivals declined from a high level, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Demand - side iron - water production was gradually falling from a high level, and the pressure to cut production would increase in the future. With expectations of policy benefits, the market sentiment improved. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [2] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price hikes in the coking industry started. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory continued to decline slightly. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, carbon supply was abundant, and the high - level iron - water production supported the price. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Due to political unrest in Mongolia, the stability of Mongolian coal imports was a concern. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, and prices rose. Terminal inventory increased, and total inventory rose slightly. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Weekly production declined slightly, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Magnesium production increased slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply remained high, and inventory continued to decline [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Energy & Shipping Q4 Strategy: Rising and Falling, Alternating in Search of a Bottom [2] - Author: Gaomingyu from Guotou Futures Research Institute [3] - Date: October 2025 [3] Core Viewpoints - The differentiation among industrial products remains significant, and the risk - aversion sentiment is still approaching extreme values [4] - In the energy and shipping sectors, various products face different supply - demand situations. For example, in the fuel oil market, high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) shows a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is expected to have marginal improvement in demand in the medium term. In the asphalt market, the high - growth rate of shipments is hard to sustain, and the "peak season" in October is weaker than expected. In the power coal market, the supply - demand balance is affected by production, imports, and consumption. In the container shipping (European line) futures market, the supply is abundant while the demand growth may slow down in the future [61][68][93][109] Summary by Industry Energy Sector Crude Oil and Oil Products - **Supply - side**: OPEC+ has production quotas and targets. The production of countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia is also important factors. US shale oil production is affected by factors such as the number of active rigs and new well productivity. Additionally, Iran and Venezuela's oil exports also impact the global supply [11][22] - **Demand - side**: Global oil demand growth rates have been adjusted down by institutions such as IEA, DOE, and OPEC. Different oil products have different demand trends, and the demand in China and other regions also varies [27] - **Inventory**: Crude oil and refined oil inventories in different regions (such as the US, China, and Europe) have different trends, which affect the market supply - demand balance [39][42] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Supply**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, short - term geopolitical events affect supply, while in the medium term, supply pressure is expected to increase. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overseas market has a loose supply, and domestic production enthusiasm is weak [53][59] - **Demand**: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong short - term demand from shipping and feedstock, but the demand may weaken in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to see marginal improvement in demand in the fourth quarter [57][59] - **Strategy**: Consider shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads or widening the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [61] Asphalt - **Supply - demand**: The high - growth rate of asphalt shipments is difficult to maintain, and the "peak season" in October is weaker than expected. Road asphalt consumption is boosted, but waterproof asphalt consumption declines due to the real - estate market [68][70] Power Coal - **Supply**: Coal production in different regions (such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia) and imports from countries like Indonesia, Australia, and Russia affect the supply [77][83] - **Demand**: Power generation and industrial production are the main demand sources. The demand in the power industry and other industries shows different trends [88][89] - **Inventory**: Power coal inventories at ports and terminals also impact the market balance [93] Shipping Sector Container Shipping (European Line) Futures - **Demand**: The Asian - European container shipping trade volume increased by 10% year - on - year from January to August, with the growth rate at a 10 - year high. The demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter, but the growth momentum may slow down next year [99][104] - **Supply**: New ship deliveries are keeping a fast pace, and the supply is abundant. The shipping alliance restructuring and potential over - capacity after the resumption of normal routes also put pressure on the market [109]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "ななな" - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "文文文" - Asphalt: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "なな☆" - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "文文文" Report's Core View - The oil market is in a state of short - term rebound. In the absence of additional negatives, the downward momentum of oil prices this week has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical fluctuations on the resistance level of Brent at $65 per barrel [2] - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil prices mainly follow crude oil fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term, but supply is expected to be looser in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamentals currently but demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter [3] - The asphalt market maintains a tight balance, and the strengthening of the cost side helps to consolidate the upward trend [4] - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas have improved marginally, and the strengthening of crude oil gives it a boost [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded violently, and the SC11 contract rose 4.4%. Considering the approaching of the low point in April and the decline of net long positions in futures and options, the downward momentum of oil prices is expected to slow down this week. EIA inventories declined last week, and geopolitical risks have increased. The market is in a state of oversold rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow the strengthening of the crude oil cost side due to multiple macro - factors. The supply - demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term but supply may be looser in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamentals currently, but demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter [3] Asphalt - Crude oil leads the rise of oil product futures, and BU continues the upward trend. The weekly start - up rate of asphalt nationwide declined, the production plan of refineries in November decreased significantly. The weekly shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises declined. Social inventory continued to be destocked, and factory inventory was destocked slowly. The market maintains a tight balance [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Today, the rebound of crude oil led to the rise of oil product futures, and the LPG main contract rose about 2.6%. This week, the supply increased slightly. Chemical demand has increased, and the demand expectation of the combustion end is strong, but the actual demand is currently flat. Weekly refinery and port inventories declined [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic, PX, PTA, and benzene ethylene are rated ★☆★, indicating a moderately bullish trend [1]. - PVC, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle chips are rated ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend [1]. - Urea, methanol, and glass are rated ☆☆☆, meaning a neutral trend with low operability [1]. - Caustic soda and soda ash are rated ☆☆☆, also indicating a neutral state [1]. Core Views - In the chemical market, different chemical products show various trends. Some are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and downstream demand, with short - term and medium - term outlooks varying [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures continued to rise. Propylene prices remained stable at a low level, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market [2]. - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated upwards. For polyethylene, the macro - environment improved, but downstream resistance to price increases led to slower trading. For polypropylene, the trading sentiment improved, but downstream demand had no obvious improvement [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Boosted by oil prices, the pure benzene futures price continued to rebound, and the spot price in East China also recovered. In the short term, concerns about supply contraction and oil price rebounds led to increased downstream purchases, while high imports remained a medium - term pressure [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures continued to rise. Driven by oil prices, styrene showed a short - term strong trend, but high inventory suppressed its upward space [3]. Polyester - The sharp rebound in oil prices provided impetus for PX and PTA. The textile market improved, but PTA was expected to face inventory accumulation in the medium term. Ethylene glycol might rebound in the short term but had medium - term inventory pressure. Short - fiber was expected to continue a bullish trend, while bottle chips faced weakening demand [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol rose slightly. The port inventory was high, and it might oscillate in the short term and tend to be stronger in the medium - to - long - term. The urea futures price continued to rise slightly, with improved supply - demand margins and cost support [6]. Chlor - Alkali - The supply of PVC was expected to increase, with stable domestic demand and good export in September. It might operate in the bottom - range. The supply of caustic soda fluctuated slightly, with inventory decline in non - aluminum downstream, and it might operate at a low - range [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry had a slight inventory reduction, but supply remained high. It was advisable to short at high levels after a rebound. The glass price continued to fall, with inventory accumulation, and its downward range was expected to be limited [8].