Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. The market is currently in a phase of consolidation, awaiting significant external and internal macro - events and policy drivers [1]. - Different commodity sectors show diverse trends. Precious metals are driven by geopolitical risks and central bank gold - buying; non - ferrous metals are boosted by low inventory and demand expectations; black commodities are supported by inventory reduction and policy expectations; energy and chemical sectors face various uncertainties; and agricultural products are affected by international markets, weather, and policy changes [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the overall commodity market rose 0.40%. Precious metals led with a 3.64% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 1.25%, while black, agricultural, and energy - chemical sectors declined by 1.42%, 0.66%, and 0.19% respectively [1][6]. - Among specific varieties, gold, crude oil, and nickel had the highest gains of 4.45%, 3.85%, and 3.54% respectively, while industrial silicon, glass, and coking coal had the largest drops of 7.77%, 7.12%, and 4.42% respectively [1][6]. - The overall market scale increased slightly last week, mainly due to capital inflows into precious metals [1][6]. Sector - Specific Analysis Precious Metals - Gold reached a new historical high. Geopolitical risks, Fed policy uncertainty, and central bank gold - buying drove the market. Silver followed gold's rise due to industrial demand recovery. The market is dominated by macro - sentiment and geopolitical situations, with increasing capital inflows [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices hit a new high, driven by low global inventory, grid investment, and supply - side disruptions. Market sentiment is positive, and other varieties like aluminum and nickel also rebounded. Attention should be paid to external market trends, the strength of the US dollar, and downstream stocking rhythms [2]. Black Commodities - Steel prices stabilized, supported by faster inventory reduction, pre - holiday replenishment demand, and improved policy expectations. Iron ore prices rebounded due to steel mill restocking and production increase expectations. The performance of coking coal and coke improved, but overseas tariffs and anti - dumping pressures still limit export expectations [2]. Energy - Crude oil prices were consolidating at a high level after a previous sharp rise. The market is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risks in the Middle East and weak global demand prospects. Natural gas prices were weak due to seasonal demand decline and high inventory [3]. Chemicals - The cost - side support weakened due to the high - level oscillation of crude oil. Some polyester - chain varieties showed signs of stabilization, while basic chemical products like methanol and PVC had weak rebounds. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday replenishment and downstream production rhythms [3]. Agricultural Products - Edible oils rebounded due to the recovery of the international oilseed market and a slowdown in domestic crushing. Grain varieties were stable, and the prices of imported varieties like soybeans and sorghum are expected to rise due to policy - induced cost increases. Pork and egg futures continued to be strong [4]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with the total net value of gold ETFs increasing by 8.90% and the total net value of commodity ETFs increasing by 7.23%. Energy - chemical, soybean meal, non - ferrous metal, and silver ETFs showed different trends [33].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 上周美国对伊朗的强化制裁及OPEC+最新城产补偿计划支撑市场反弹情绪，周六美伊在罗马举行的 第二轮核谈平稳落地,双方同意几日后继续进行技术层面的间接踵商,并将于26日举行第三轮会 谈,中东地缘风险阶段性缓和。考虑到贸易战对石油需求的潜在冲击及OPEC+增产路径开启,油价 阶段性超跌反弹的空间有限,持续关注波动率回落后原油看跌期权的买入机会。 【贵金属】 周五耶稣受难日外盘贵金属休市,内盘波动有限。上周鲍威尔讲话维持观望论调,关联储受因滞和 涨的两难抉择,特朗普继续向鲍威尔施压。美元信用和经济前景双重风险下黄金配置价值凸显,全 球黄金ETF处于大幅增持阶段。金价中长期维持重心上移趋势,短期快速上涨后保持谋慎。 【铜】 周一伦铜休市,美铜开盘,沪铜走势震荡。上周国内现铜调涨,沪粤维持升水,国内社库继续降 低。客观看沪铜现货提供抵抗性支撑, 倾向沪铜反弹阻力区7.65-7.7万,反弹空配。 【铝】 周五夜盘沪铝小幅反弹。铝市供应低增速下去库强劲,总库存处于近年最低水平。关税谈判进展和 对全球需求前景影响暂难评估,市场对于宏观风险的交易会有反复。沪铝 ...

| 《》》 国投期货 | | 农产品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月18日 | | 豆一 | ななな | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 五米 | ★☆★ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ★☆★ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【三一】 国产大豆表现为减仓下跌的态势。国产大豆今日政策端竞价采购国产大豆,无蛋白要求,全部成交。进口大豆 供应端短期面临供需形式的转换，4月下旬大豆会大量到港。短期继续关注政策端的表现以及大豆供需面的变 动。 【大豆&豆粕】 国内豆粕现货仍然强势,在大豆没有大量到港的时候,现货市场仍然受到供应紧张影响,甚差再度上涨。豆粕 后续要面临供需形势的转 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Methanol is in a pattern of strong current situation but weak future expectation, with supply expected to rise significantly, which is bearish for the future market, but low inventories in the inland and coastal areas still support the market to some extent [2] - Urea's supply is at a high level, and the concentrated start of demand at the end of April or early May may drive the market to stabilize and rebound [3] - Polyolefin futures prices continue to decline, with high supply pressure in the polyethylene market and weak demand, while polypropylene has less supply pressure but weak demand [4] - Styrene has an expectation of increased supply and weakened demand, and the overall demand outlook is gloomy [6] - In the polyester industry, PTA's supply and demand are expected to decrease, and the impact of production cuts is limited; ethylene glycol's supply and demand are both expected to decline; short fiber fluctuates with raw materials; bottle chip's supply and demand are weak [7] - PVC may fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for caustic soda [8] - Glass futures prices decline, and the decline space is expected to be limited; soda ash futures prices continue to fall, and it is not recommended to go long [9] Commodity Summaries Methanol - Inland production enterprises have low inventories, and the recent inland market remains strong. However, after Iran's full复产, the arrival speed of ships has rebounded rapidly, and the import volume in coastal areas is expected to gradually return at the end of this month. The high supply expectation is bearish for the future market, but low inventories still support the market [2] Urea - The futures price rebounds slightly. Supply is at a high level, and demand is affected by the season. The concentrated start of demand at the end of April or early May may drive the market to stabilize and rebound [3] Polyolefins - Futures prices decline. Polyethylene has high supply pressure and weak demand, while polypropylene has less supply pressure but weak demand [4] Styrene - The futures price consolidates narrowly. Supply is expected to increase, demand continues to weaken, and the overall demand outlook is gloomy [6] Polyester - PX and PTA fluctuate, and the impact of PTA production cuts is limited. Ethylene glycol's supply and demand are both expected to decline. Short fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and bottle chip's supply and demand are weak [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may fluctuate at a low level. Caustic soda production may be at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures prices decline, and the decline space is expected to be limited. Soda ash futures prices continue to fall, and it is not recommended to go long [9]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年04月18日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ななな | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑棉小幅下跌,国产棉现货交授较决;2024/25南播机采3129/29B/杂3内较低销售基意在0F09+1200起,多数销售基基在 0F09+1300及以上，内地自提。市场交投不佳，纺企走货不畅。3月份，服装、鞋帽、针纺织品类商品零售额为1240亿元，同比 增长3.6%,1-3月累计零售额为3869亿元,同比增长3.4%,国内内纷数据表 ...

| | | | Mille | SDIC FUTURES | WO STAND H JIY | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月18日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆★ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。 本周螺纹表需超预期回暖，持续性有待观察，产量小幅下降，库存去化加快，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热 卷需求好转，产量趋稳，库存继续下降，随着吨钢和润下滑，高炉复产态势放缓。从一季度数据看，基建、制造业有所好转， 地产销售、新开工降幅边 ...

| 《》》 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月18日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 俄罗斯燃料油发运量仍处低位,全球重油资源供应偏紧格局暂难改,南亚国家夏季燃油发电高峰利好需求,FU 衰现偏强;低硫方面,科威特低硫燃料油发运环比下降叠加国内有炼厂转产沥青,低硫供应压力有所缓解,且 原油上行带动LU走强。 【沥青】 综合型炼厂生产沥青利润得以大幅修复,出于综合利益考量,近期有炼厂从渣油与低硫燃油转产沥青,但也要 考虑主营炼厂4-6月检修规模较大这一限制。需求虽季节性环比回升但迎来实质好转仍 ...

| 11/11/2 | 国资期采 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月18日 | | 黄金 | 文女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属小幅回落。本周鲍威尔讲话维持观望论调，美联储受圆滞和涨的两难抉择,市场对于贸易战背景 下经济前景担忧难解除,美元信用和经济前景双重风险下黄金配置价值凸显,全球黄金ETF处于大幅增持阶 段。金价中长期维持重心上移趋势,不过短期快速上涨后波动放大谨慎追涨参与。今日耶稣受难日外盘黄金 属暂停交易。 ★特朗普:鲍威尔总是行动太迟且决策错误,现在美联储肯定应该降低利率,鲍威尔被解雇的这皮再快都不 为过;据悉美财长贝森特及鲍威尔的潜在继任者沃什均反对解雇鲍威尔。 ★特朗普:有信心与欧盟达成贸易协议,但不急于达成协议;如果谈判破裂,据悉欧盟考虑对美国实施出口 ...

周度期货价量总览 商品类别 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 波动率变化(%) 投机度 趋势度 资金变动 黄金 791.02 4.45% 17.86% 4.49% 2.82 0.44 93.07 白银 8,160.00 2.38% 34.46% -1.84% 2.51 0.15 21.85 铜 76,140.00 1.33% 31.75% -0.58% 0.70 0.12 -16.72 镍 125,600.00 3.54% 29.63% -4.78% 2.65 0.12 -4.35 铝 19,695.00 0.28% 17.80% -1.89% 0.64 -0.04 0.84 锡 256,250.00 -0.47% 37.46% -23.74% 4.75 0.01 -3.84 锌 22,050.00 -1.58% 21.30% 0.25% 1.45 -0.03 3.65 铅 16,895.00 0.42% 16.95% -0.06% 0.68 0.04 -1.70 工业硅 8,720.00 -7.77% 19.63% 25.92% 1.54 -0.71 4.37 螺纹钢 3,076.00 -1.76 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] - Trade wars and tariffs have a significant impact on the market, affecting the supply - demand balance and price trends of multiple commodities [13][19][28] - The market is also influenced by factors such as production capacity adjustments, inventory changes, and seasonal demand [4][10][23] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC +'s production cut compensation plan and US sanctions on Iran support price rebound, but the upside is limited due to potential trade - war impacts on demand. Consider buying options after volatility subsides [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: US sanctions on Iran and low Russian fuel oil shipments tighten global heavy - oil supply. Summer demand in South Asia benefits fuel oil, and supply pressure eases for low - sulfur fuel oil, driving prices up [20] - **Asphalt**: Supply increases as a refinery resumes production and others switch from other products. Demand improvement takes time, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: External prices are stable, and domestic refinery price cuts are due to increased supply. PDH shutdowns reduce import demand, but crude oil stability may drive the futures up [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's long - term upward trend is supported by economic concerns and dollar risks, but short - term volatility is high after a rapid rise [2] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Domestic spot provides support, but the price is expected to face resistance in the 76,500 - 77,000 yuan range. Consider short - selling on rebounds [3] - **Aluminum**: Low supply growth and strong destocking, but the price is expected to oscillate below 20,000 yuan due to macro - risk uncertainties [4] - **Zinc**: LME inventory increase and weak consumer confidence. The price is under pressure and should be short - sold [6] - **Lead**: High LME inventory and weak consumer demand in the off - season. The price is in a stalemate, and it's advisable to wait and see [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price rebound is approaching an end. New short - selling opportunities may emerge [8] - **Tin**: The price is expected to rebound, but short - sell against the MA60 daily line [9] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is in a downward channel, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to continue weakening in the short term due to policy and supply factors [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is cautious. Demand is mixed, and the market trend may not change without large - scale production cuts [12] - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand has some resilience. The price may have a small - scale rebound and will mainly oscillate [14] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices follow steel trends. Coke inventory is high, and coking coal supply is abundant. Prices are likely to be weak in the short term [15][16] - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Prices follow steel. Supply and demand factors suggest short - selling on rebounds [17][18] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Domestic production declines slightly, and inventory is low in the near term, supporting the price. However, supply is expected to increase significantly later [24] - **Styrene**: Supply is supported by maintenance, but cost and demand are weak, putting pressure on the price [25] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Crude oil rise boosts costs, but polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene lacks price support [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate at a low level due to supply, demand, and cost factors. Caustic soda shows strength, but it's advisable to wait and see [27] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester industry chain is affected by tariffs. PTA's production cut has limited positive effects [28] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Related Products**: Brazilian soybean arrivals in the second quarter may pressure the basis of soybean meal. Mid - term, the futures may be more resilient due to tariffs and the US planting season [34] - **Corn**: Supply increases at Shandong deep - processing enterprises, and inventory is high. The price is likely to decline further [38] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: High expected supply in September may limit the upward space of the futures price [39] - **Eggs**: The in - production inventory and chick - replenishment volume are rising, and the long - term price trend is bearish [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton sales data is good, but domestic cotton may be weak due to tariff impacts. It's advisable to wait and see [41] - **Sugar**: Uncertainty in Brazilian sugar production and domestic supply - demand changes. The price is expected to oscillate [42] - **Apples**: Cold - wave impacts are estimated to be small. Spot sales are good, and the price may rise. The market focuses on new - season production [43] - **Wood & Pulp**: - **Wood**: High expected arrivals in April and weak demand. The price is likely to be weak [44] - **Pulp**: High port inventory and general demand. The price is affected by the macro - environment [45] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares may oscillate and accumulate momentum. Focus on the timing of domestic policy implementation [46] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market is in a wide - range oscillation. Consider a steepening strategy for multi - variety hedging [47] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The short - term futures may oscillate. Potential drivers include ship transfers and US tariff policies [19]