Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent's September contract up 0.98%. The market is focused on the resurgent risk of sanctioned oil. Geopolitical risks are providing short - term support to oil prices, and investors can consider the hedging value of out - of - the - money call options on crude oil [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, the US second - quarter GDP annualized rate rebounded to 3% more than expected, and ADP employment increased by 104,000, also exceeding expectations. The US dollar rebounded after the data release, and precious metals declined. With reduced economic recession risks and cooling risk - aversion sentiment, precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices fell. Trump excluded steel imports from additional tariffs but targeted copper products. The US dollar's strength, due to good GDP data and stable private - sector employment, is suppressing copper prices. The market is waiting for the implementation of specific US tariff agreements. Short positions can be held against integer - level resistance [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. In the off - season, demand decline is evident, with inventory accumulation and a significant drop in apparent consumption. The upper resistance level is at 21,000 yuan [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the alloy's profit is negative, putting short - term pressure on prices. However, it has some resilience in the medium term compared to aluminum prices [5]. Alumina - Recently, alumina prices have risen significantly, with industry profits recovering. The total inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. Align short positions against the recent high of 3,500 yuan [6]. Zinc - The market is waiting for the results of China - US tariff negotiations. Downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low. There is room to short mine profits on the futures market. In the short term, wait for an opportunity to short above 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - Lead prices are consolidating. The downstream battery industry's consumption has not improved significantly. Although there is strong cost support, there is a lack of consumption - driven upward momentum. Hold long positions against 16,800 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is fluctuating, with active trading. The hype of the "anti - involution" theme has cooled, and nickel may return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel iron has decreased, while that of pure nickel has increased. Short on rebounds [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and then fluctuated significantly. The spot market has become more active, and the total inventory is rising. Technically, the futures price has returned to a reasonable range. Try short - term long positions with a light position [10]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, mainly driven by the sentiment in the polysilicon market. Its own fundamentals are still weak. The exchange will implement position limits on August 1st, so beware of potential price corrections [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rose sharply yesterday. Although the news of capacity storage has been clarified, the sentiment is still strong, and the growth of warehouse receipts is slower than expected. The exchange's position limit on August 1st may lead to a price correction [12]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Rebar demand showed a slight recovery, while hot - rolled coil demand declined. Low inventory and rising costs provide some support to steel prices. The market is volatile, and pay attention to overall market trends [13]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fluctuated overnight. Supply is slightly affected by seasonal factors, and demand is stable with high iron - water production. The market is expected to be range - bound [14]. Coke - Coke prices rose during the day and then fell back. The fifth round of price increases by coking plants has a thin profit margin. Inventory is decreasing slightly, and the downward space is limited [15]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices also rose and then fell, with high volatility. The total inventory has increased, and the production - end inventory is decreasing. The positive impact of policies may support prices, and the downward space is limited [16]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose and then fell. The expected long - term accumulation of manganese ore inventory has improved. In the short term, prices are likely to continue rising under the influence of the "anti - involution" theme [17]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices followed a similar pattern. Demand is generally stable, and supply has increased slightly. It is likely to rise in the short term, following the trend of silicomanganese [18]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Freight Index (European Line) - Spot freight rates are weakening, with some airlines reducing prices. The expected increase in US - bound shipments may have limited impact on European - line rates. Weather - related port disruptions are short - term [19]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil is leading the rise in oil - related futures. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the crack spread is likely to be range - bound and weak [20]. Asphalt - In August, domestic asphalt production is expected to decline. Demand is weak, and inventory de - stocking is slowing down. The price will follow the trend of crude oil, but the upside is limited [21]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Traders are cautious due to the possible further decline of the end - of - month CP. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is likely to remain low [22]. Group 4: Chemicals Urea - Local agricultural demand for urea is ending, and the demand from compound - fertilizer enterprises is expected to increase. Exports are facing congestion, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. The price is likely to trade in a range in the short term [23]. Methanol - Methanol prices fell slightly overnight. Coastal MTO plant operations are not high, and port inventory is seasonally increasing. Domestic supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. The price is likely to fluctuate in a range [24]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices rebounded slightly. Weekly supply and demand both decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. In the third - quarter later stage, there is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but it will face pressure in the fourth quarter. Consider trading monthly spreads [25]. Styrene - Styrene futures are consolidating. The rising oil price supports the cost, but supply is high, and demand is weak, so the price is under pressure [26]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - For propylene, downstream plant maintenance in Shandong and new capacity release are causing supply - demand imbalances. For polyethylene, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is gradually recovering. For polypropylene, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices are falling as sentiment cools. Supply is decreasing due to enterprise maintenance, and demand is in the off - season. The long - term price increase is limited. Caustic soda is weak, with increasing inventory and long - term supply pressure [28]. PX and PTA - Rising oil prices are expected to support PX and PTA costs. PTA is still accumulating inventory, and the processing margin and basis are weakening. The mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it depends on downstream demand recovery [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Downstream demand for ethylene glycol is stable. Port inventory is fluctuating at a low level. In the short term, the strong oil price is a positive factor, but the market may face supply changes [30]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Chip - Short - fiber and bottle - grade chip prices follow the raw - material price. Short - fiber processing margins are falling, and demand is in the off - season. In the medium term, consider long positions. Bottle - grade chips have a stable inventory but face long - term over - capacity pressure [31]. Group 5: Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are falling as sentiment fades. Industry profits are slightly recovering, and processing orders are weak. Without a reduction in supply, significant price increases are unlikely [32]. Group 6: Rubber 20 - Standard Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International trade risks are rising, and natural rubber supply is entering the high - production season. Demand from the tire industry is weak, and inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [33]. Group 7: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The Fed maintained interest rates, and China - US trade negotiations may extend the tariff suspension for 90 days. US soybean growing conditions are good, with a high excellent - rate. The market is waiting for weather changes and is likely to trade in a range [35]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US soybean oil is consolidating. The high oil - meal ratio in the US market may support domestic vegetable - oil prices. Consider long positions on dips for soybean oil and palm oil, and pay attention to weather and policies [36]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell overnight. Domestic rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are declining. Due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the prices are likely to trade in a range at high levels [37]. Soybean No. 1 - Soybean No. 1 prices fell overnight. China - US trade negotiations may extend the tariff suspension. Pay attention to weather in the Northeast and US soy - growing regions [38]. Corn - Corn futures are trading in a range. US corn growing conditions are good. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. Live Hogs - Live - hog futures are falling, and the spot price is stable. With sufficient medium - term supply and cooling policy - driven sentiment, futures prices are likely to decline further. Industries are advised to hedge on rallies [40]. Eggs - Egg spot prices are mostly stable, with some local declines. August - contract prices are falling, and off - season contracts are weak. Monitor whether the spot price can rise seasonally [41]. Cotton - US cotton prices are falling, and Brazilian cotton harvesting is slow. Zhengzhou cotton is consolidating at a high level. Pay attention to the details of China - US trade negotiations [42]. Sugar - US sugar prices are oscillating. Brazilian production expectations are negative, and there is uncertainty about China's 25/26 sugar - production due to weather. Sugar prices are likely to trade in a range [43]. Apples - Apple futures prices are fluctuating. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, with higher prices. The market is focused on new - season production estimates, which are still uncertain [44]. Timber - Timber prices are fluctuating. Demand is good in the off - season, and inventory is low. As the peak season approaches, prices are likely to rise, and a long - position strategy is recommended [45]. Pulp - Pulp prices are falling. Port inventory is high, and demand is weak. The market is likely to return to low - level consolidation [46]. Group 8: Financial Instruments Stock Index - A - share markets fluctuated sharply yesterday, with trading volume increasing. The Fed's decision and Trump's tariff policies have affected market sentiment. The domestic equity market has a positive capital - flow sentiment. Continue to increase allocations to technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - valued consumer sectors [47]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury - bond futures rose across the board. The Politburo meeting indicates a policy - implementation phase. In the short term, futures prices may recover, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [48].

(棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续下跌，09合约继续大幅减仓，9-1价差继续下跌。7月上半月棉花库存去化速度有所放缓，截至7月15号，棉花商业 库存为254.24万吨，环比6月减少28.74万吨。国内6月份棉花进口延续偏低的趋势，2025年6月进口3万吨，再创近20年新低，同 比降12.53万吨，环比降0.45万吨；2025年1-6月累计进口46万吨，同比降74.3%，同比降133万吨。纯棉纱市场交投一般、下游 刚需采购。宏观上,关注中美经贸谈判的情况。操作上暂时观望或日内操作为主。 (白糖) 隔夜美糖震荡。巴西方面,预计25/26榨季巴西中南部甘蔗单产为72吨/公顷,同比下降6.5%。尽管单产下降,但是多数国际各 询公司仍认为25/26榨季巴西中南部产糖量将维持在4000万吨以上，主要原因是糖厂的制糖比例较高，导致产糖量增加，关注后 续数据变化。国内方面,郑糖震荡。进口方面,2025年6月份我国进口食糖42万吨,同比增加39.23万吨；进口糖浆和预混粉 11.55万吨，同比减少10.35万吨。产销方面，虽然今年广西增产，但是由于销售节奏较快，库存同比减少，现货压力相对较 轻。不过,美糖趋势依然向下,郑糖上方空间相 ...

费视镜 信守承诺 锌:资金积极计价政策影响,锌价何去何从 点有成金 近期锌价向上突破区间盘整,但进一步上行空间受限,下跌节奏亦不顺畅,资金倾向落袋为安,沪锌持仓 拥挤度持续下降，短期方向性信号不足，本文梳理重点问题，以厘清后市交投节奏。 但是海内外矿山增量如期兑现,国内铅锌矿山扩产、复产产能继续落地，冶炼厂原料库存不缺，在硫酸等 副产品价格高企的背景下,国内冶炼厂主动补库。关税问题导致消费前置,叠加传统谈季影响,基本面进一步 转向供增需弱,缺乏消费有力支撑情况下,沪锌在2.3万整数关暂承压。 r 锌市行情回顾 随着美国极端关税避延的逐步落地,市场恐慌情绪修复,关税对商品价格的影响不断降低,在铜、铝等有 色品种陆续回补清明跳空缺口后，近期在国内"反内卷"的乐观氛围中,沪锌打破低位盘整,亦完成了对清明 跳空缺口的修复。虽然美国经济数据表现出经济软着陆预期,但特朗普反复敦促美联储降息,市场对于通胀预 期仍有一定计价,对锌价也形成一定支撑。 二、 锌期限结构从"B"逐步转"C"意味着什么? 沪锌逐步转向正向市场，表明基本面由强转弱被计价日渐充分,弱现实、弱预期下,期限结构偏平,这种 结构下做空的收益空间变窄,但移仓亏 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex supply - demand relationships and price trends, with different products facing various challenges and opportunities. For example, some products are affected by new capacity releases, while others are influenced by changes in oil prices, downstream demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly with insufficient liquidity. Due to downstream device overhauls in Shandong and new capacity releases, the market's ability to digest propylene is limited, and prices lack upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. For polyethylene, supply pressure increases and inventory accumulates, though downstream demand is gradually warming up. For polypropylene, upstream inventory is transferred to the middle - link, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Night - time oil prices rise significantly, causing the price center of pure benzene to rebound. The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene both decrease, and the port inventory slightly accumulates. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band operations [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. The cost - end support strengthens, but the supply - demand remains weak, with high - level supply and increasing port inventory [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise in the morning and fall slightly in the afternoon. PX's fundamental driving force is limited, and PTA continues to accumulate inventory with a weakened processing margin. The new capacity of short - fiber is limited, and its price follows raw materials. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues in the long - term [5] - Ethylene glycol's downstream demand is stable, and its price is affected by short - term oil price strength. Overseas device disturbances are weakening as domestic supply recovers [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. Coastal MTO device operation rates are low, and the port inventory accumulates seasonally. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to oscillate within a range [6] - Urea futures open high and close low. Local agricultural demand is ending, and the downstream demand is weak. Production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the short - term market is likely to move within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fall at the end of the session. Supply decreases due to enterprise overhauls, and social inventory accumulates. Domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve [7] - Caustic soda runs weakly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali improves, and device operation rates increase. The long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to face pressure at high levels [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures prices fall at the end of the session. Inventory decreases, and production increases slightly. The photovoltaic industry continues to cut production, and there is supply - demand pressure after the sentiment fades [8] - Glass prices fall at the end of the session. The spot market in Shahe cools down, and production and sales weaken. The industry profit recovers slightly, and long - term demand is poor [8]

| | | | VV V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年07月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | 女女女 | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆止跌反弹,盘面减仓。中美双方第三轮经贸谈判,根据会谈共识,双方将继续推动暂停关税互加。并 展期90天。政策方面本周国产大豆双向购销政策溢价成交。短期东北地区降水偏多,需要防范低洼农田出现滞 涝风险。进口大豆方 ...

不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | Million | 软商品日报 | > 國授期货 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年07月30日 | 操作评级 | | | | 曹凯 首席分析师 | 棉花 | 女女女 | | | F03095462 Z0017365 | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | | | な女女 | 白糖 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | 苹果 | | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | 木材 | ★☆★ | | 黄维 高级分析师 | 20号胶 | な女女 | | | F03096483 Z0017474 | 天然橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续下跌，09合约继续大幅减仓，9-1价差继续下跌。7月上半月棉花库存去化速度有所放缓，截至7月15号，棉花商业 库存为254.24万吨，环比6月减少28.74万吨。国内6月份棉花进口延续偏低的趋势，2025年6月进口3万吨，再创近20年新低，同 比降12 ...

【国投期货|能源论事】 美国对俄制裁最后期限前置，地缘风险再度 支撑油价 能源团队 研究院 高明宇 Z0012038 2025.7.30 免责声明：国投期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货投资咨询业务资格。本报告仅供国投期货有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的机构或个人客户（以下 简称"客户"）使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。如接收人并非国投期货客户，请及时退回并删除。 本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅 反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的期货或期权的价格、价值可能会波动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。客户不应视本报告 为其做出投资决策的唯一因素。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所导致的任 何损失负任何责任。 本报告可能附带其它网站的地址或超级链接，本公司不对其内容的真实性、合法性、完整性和准确性负责。本报告提 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different products facing various supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new capacity release, downstream demand changes, and oil price fluctuations [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly with insufficient liquidity. Due to downstream device maintenance in Shandong and new capacity release, the market's ability to digest propylene is limited, and prices lack upward momentum [2] - Polyolefin futures' main contracts fluctuate narrowly. For polyethylene, supply pressure increases, inventory accumulates, and although downstream demand warms up, the supply - demand situation lacks substantial improvement. For polypropylene, upstream inventory transfers to the middle, demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - After a sharp rise in night - time oil prices, the pure benzene price recovers. Its weekly supply and demand both decline, and the port inventory accumulates slightly. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [3] - Styrene futures' main contract fluctuates narrowly. The cost support strengthens as oil prices rise, but the supply - demand situation remains weak with high supply and accumulated port inventory, and stable downstream demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise in the morning and fall slightly in the afternoon due to oil price support. PX fundamentals have limited drive, and PTA continues to accumulate inventory with weakening processing margins and basis. Mid - term processing margins have a repair drive but depend on downstream demand recovery [5] - Ethylene glycol's downstream demand is stable, and port inventory fluctuates at a low level. It faces supply changes due to device maintenance and restarts. Short - term oil price strength provides positive support [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices follow raw material fluctuations. Short fiber's processing margins decline, and its demand is in the off - season, but there is mid - term positive expectation. Bottle chip has stable inventory under low - start conditions, and over - capacity restricts its processing margin repair [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. Coastal MTO device operation is not high, and the port accumulates inventory seasonally. Domestic supply is sufficient, and downstream demand changes little. The market is likely to fluctuate within a range [6] - Urea futures' main contract opens high and closes low. Local agricultural demand is ending, downstream demand is weak, and production enterprises accumulate inventory. The market is likely to operate within a range in the short term [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fall at the end of the session. Supply decreases due to enterprise maintenance, and social inventory accumulates. Domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve. Long - term prices are unlikely to rise significantly [7] - Caustic soda prices are weak. Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit improves, and device operation increases. Alumina demand provides support, but non - aluminum demand is average. Long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures prices fall at the end of the session. Inventory decreases, and production increases slightly. The photovoltaic industry continues to cut production, and there is supply - demand pressure after the sentiment fades [8] - Glass prices fall at the end of the session. Spot sales weaken, industry profit recovers slightly, and processing orders are weak. In the long - term, without supply reduction, glass prices are unlikely to rise significantly [8]

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