| >国技期货 | | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年02月04日 | | 黄金 | なな☆ | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | 文文文 | | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属继续反弹。美元信用危机与全球秩序重塑叙事并未发生逆转，但短期仍以资金博弈为主，责金属 进入高位盘整阶段,暂时观望等待波动率下降。近期重点跟踪地缘局势演绎以及本周包括非农就业在内的一 系列经济数据。今晚关注美国ADP就业和ISM非制造业PMI数据。 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ...

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月04日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 器联 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面小幅反弹。淡季螺纹表需环比下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下降，压 力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基 建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月04日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一震荡调整,本周政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强,国产大豆计划拍卖60608吨，全 部成交，底价4050元/吨,成交均价4298元/吨,溢价210-310元/吨。近期地缘与宏观风险事件比较集中，且方 向尚不明确,需要关注宏观对整体商品的引导。近期豆一也受到宏观因素的影响,波动性增 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年02月04日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铜 | ☆☆☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ななな | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 能 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | なな☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ☆☆☆ | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | なな女 | | | 工业硅 | ななな | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铝】再生铝拟纳入交割，有效缓解原生铝可供交割品偏少的问题，沪铝走弱。终端电池需求偏弱，部分电池 企业提前放假,导致铝锭需求不足,沪铝盘面缺乏有效抵抗,铝价大幅下探,严重侵蚀再生铅利润,再生铝成 产面积扩大,原生铝 ...

| 703 | A | 10 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | œ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | . | V | œ | 1 | 1 | | . | | | | | | | | | | | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ★★★ | 能源日报 2026年02月04日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 美伊谈判前景依然存在诸多不确定性。美军击落了一架接近林肯号航空母舰的伊朗无人机,而伊朗武装快艇也 在霍尔木兹海峡逼近一艘悬挂美国国旗的船只。伊朗方面提出将谈判地点更改为阿曼,并要求把议题范围收 窄，仅限于核问题的双边会谈。另一方面,泽连斯基指责俄罗斯在停火期间围积弹药,并于和平谈判前夕发动 袭击 ...

2026-02-04 美国生物柴油 45Z 政策拟议法规公布，美豆油上涨 ———— 吴小明 投资咨询号：Z0015853 国投期货研究院 燃料生产 国技期货 燃料用途与销售对象 解读：主要是为了灵活销售路径，降低交易限制。 抵免金额与计算规则 保持 50 千克（kg）CO₂e /mmBTU，调整计算范围: 限制条款： 排放系数的数学计算如下：(50 kg CO₂e /mmBTU -排放率） ÷50 kg CO₂e /mmBTU IRS 每年发布年度排放率表，动态调整不同原料 / 燃料的排放系数 解读:取消 SAF 溢价,SAF 和非 SAF 统一抵免额度。抵免金额按通胀调整因子调整,进 行通胀挂钩，对冲成本上涨。 1、适合公路车辆 / 航空使用 2、拓宽关联中介销售归属规则（如通过关联方转售也可认定为合格销售） 1、基础抵免率（未满足工资 / 学徒要求): 2026 年 1 月 1 日起统一: 20 美分 / 加 仑（SAF 与非 SAF 一致） 2、升级抵免率（满足工资 / 学徒要求）: 2026 年 1 月 1 日起统一：1.00 美元 / 加仑 (SAF 与非 SAF 一致) 3、抵免金额按通胀调整因子 ...

板块轮动到焦煤？ 国投期货研究院 黑色金属首席分析师 曹颖 Z0012043 印尼煤炭出口减量引发讨论 2 印尼煤炭出口减量引发讨论 3 印尼煤炭出口减量引发讨论 4 印尼煤炭出口减量引发讨论 5 焦煤现货目前矛盾不突出 6 焦煤现货目前矛盾不突出 7 焦煤上涨趋势恐还需等待 8 THANKS ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macroeconomic conditions. Different commodities show various trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The prospect of US - Iran negotiations is uncertain. Current conflicts mainly involve sanctions and local military frictions, with the situation controllable. Oil prices are affected by both geopolitical factors and inventory pressure, and are expected to continue to fluctuate [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the bearish sentiment of the crude - oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively tight supply, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure. The high - sulfur > low - sulfur pattern may continue [21] - **Asphalt**: Supply pressure is limited. Consumption has improved year - on - year. The second - quarter refineries may face rising raw - material costs. Near - month contracts are supported by cost [22] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The narrative of the US dollar credit crisis and global order reshaping remains unchanged, but it is currently mainly a capital game. Precious metals are in a high - level consolidation phase, and investors should wait for volatility to decline [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: US strategic metal stockpiling plans and industry suggestions for commercial discount stockpiling have attracted re - allocation in the copper market. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels, but there is downward pressure around the Spring Festival [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly. There is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival due to weak fundamentals and large spot discounts [5] - **Zinc**: After the decline in Shanghai zinc, short - selling sentiment was released, but capital congestion remains high. Zinc is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel had a weak rebound, and stainless - steel downstream demand is weak. Spot prices are supported by low inventory and strong price - holding intentions of traders [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin recovered its previous decline. Some point - price buying emerged after the decline in tin prices. After closing the option strategy, investors should wait and see [10] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium rebounded sharply. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [11] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices rebounded. After the production cut by leading enterprises, the market expects a slight supply - demand gap in February. The price may test the previous high in the short term and may oscillate near the key level if the progress is less than expected [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon continued to oscillate. The supply may be reduced due to planned production cuts by leading enterprises, and downstream demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be slightly strong [13] Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices oscillated at night. Rebar demand is in the off - season, while hot - rolled coil demand and production increased slightly. Overall demand is weak, and the price rebound is restricted [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market oscillated. Supply increased slightly but was lower than last year. Demand is at a low level. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] Coal - Related - **Coke**: Coke prices oscillated. Coking profits are average, and inventory increased slightly. The price is likely to oscillate within a range [16] - **Coking Coal**: Coking - coal prices oscillated. Total inventory increased significantly. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [17] Other Metals and Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The price corrected. Supply is in excess, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price corrected. Supply changed little, and demand has some resilience. The price is affected by supply excess and policy [19] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The resumption of major Asia - Europe routes by leading shipping companies may put pressure on far - month contracts. The spot price may decline slightly before the Spring Festival and may be under pressure again after the festival. The 04 contract is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern [20] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean - meal inventory may decline after the Spring Festival. The short - term trend of US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal is expected to be weak and oscillatory [35] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: US policies are beneficial to North American raw - material demand. The prices of soybean and palm oils are affected by macro factors and are giving back the macro premium [36] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to ease in the first quarter. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [37] - **Soybean No.1**: Policy - led soybean auctions increased market supply. The price is affected by macro factors, and short - term policy and market sentiment should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: The overall corn - selling progress is close to 60%. The price is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short term, and the post - festival market should be followed [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weak. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [40] - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated. The short - term spot price is weak, but there is upward - repair power in the first half of 2026. After the spot price reaches a low point around the Spring Festival, a long - position strategy for the first - half 2026 futures contracts can be considered [41] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly. The short - term trend may be oscillatory. The domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand. Spinning mills' raw - material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are average. Investors should wait and see for now [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on the production - volume expectation gap. The short - term sugar price faces upward pressure [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures oscillated. The Spring Festival stocking peak has increased cold - storage sales. The market focuses on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [44] - **Wood**: The wood - futures price is at a low level. Low inventory provides some support, and investors should wait and see [45] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper - pulp futures oscillated narrowly. Port inventory continued to increase, and demand support is weak. The price may continue to decline to find support [46] Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and index - futures contracts also increased. The short - term market focuses on geopolitical and liquidity factors, and the performance of sectors with performance support should be monitored [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures showed mixed trends. Unilateral trading may have limited short - term market movements, with a box - type oscillation. Opportunities in curve trading should be noted [48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars (★★★), indicating a clearer long/short trend and currently a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk premium for crude oil has weakened, and prices are under pressure. Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil follow the crude oil market, with the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern likely to continue. Asphalt has a limited decline and its near-month futures contracts are supported by cost factors [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The situation between the US and Iran has unexpectedly eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has weakened, causing the previous gains to be continuously reversed. The inventory pressure in the global crude oil market is significant in Q1. With the uncertainty of the US-Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar, oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has declined following the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market. High-sulfur fuel oil has a tight spot market due to factors such as reduced Russian exports and increased alternative procurement in China. Geopolitical risks still provide some support. In the medium term, the high-sulfur market will face supply pressure if the geopolitical risks do not escalate. Low-sulfur fuel oil has continuous supply pressure due to the postponed return of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery in Nigeria. The demand support has weakened. The fuel oil market will mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil, and the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern may continue [4] Asphalt - Asphalt has corrected following the crude oil-related varieties, but the decline is relatively limited. The supply pressure is limited in the short term, and the consumption performance has improved year-on-year. The domestic refineries' search for substitutes for Venezuelan crude oil supports the near-month asphalt futures contracts from the cost side, and the asphalt crack spread is strong [5]

2026/2/3 有色金属周度观点 国投期货 研究院有色全属团队 | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 关注M40 60日线点价买槛。1)行情:加速期,上周铜以极端速度基本免现海外投行已上调的年度涨势目标,且价格明显与供求基本面背 | | | | | 离。铜资源溢价已快速降温,短线价格顶部高位可能形成对资金配置交易的阶段性震慑,基本金属交投可能转向基本面。2)国内供 | | | | | 篇:,一季度全球铜精矿供需最紧、TC低位再下调,在北半球春季旺季强弱不能证明、也不能证伪的阶段,资金仍可能依托技术形态,在 | | | | | 关键支撑位重返铜配置领向,同时需要关注国内产业端春节前的备货点价。周一SBL上海铜贴水130元、广东铜贴水扩至265元,洋山铜溢 | | | 1 | 把 | 价反弹回39美元,SM七地库存升至33万吨。高硫酸价格支持下,国内饰厂1月仍以稳健增产为主。倾向铜材类产品1-2月开工率明显低于 | | | | | 去年同期相对高开工水平。反映在沪铜价差上,长线叙事驱动与供需弱现实强化正向市场结构。3》海外:方铜 ...