国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2026/1/20 农产品板块持仓量维持低位 商品本周多头占比回落,主要表现有色 板块因子强度回落，农产品和和化工板 块持续位于低位。目前,截面偏强的板 块是贵金属,截面偏弱的是化工和农产 品。具体来看，黄金时序动量小幅上 升,尽管白影动量维持中性偏强,但白 银的持仓量出现边际下降。有色板块短 周期动量下降,期限结构分化收窄,截 CTA 面上锡和铅偏空。黑色板块短周期动量 边际小幅回落,焦煤焦炭持仓量降幅较 大。能化板块短周期动量截面分化扩 大,玻璃和乙二醇偏空。农产品整体短 周期动量小幅下降,油粕期限结构分化 收窄。 用 醇 策略净值方面,上周供给因子走弱 0.39%,库存因子走低0.18%,价差因子 走弱0.10%, 合成因子下行0.31%, 本周 综合信号多头。基本面因子上,进口甲 醇到港量持续减少,供给端多头延续; 甲醇制烯烃行业开工率下降,需求端中 性偏空;甲醇港口呈现去库,库存端多 头;甲醇现货价格释放空头信号,华东 基差释放多头信号,价差端中性。 | | | 动量时序 动量截面 期限结构 | | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月21日 (原油) 地缘局势阶段性趋于紧张但仍处可控范围内故难以驱动油价持续走强。与此同时，原油市场目前处 于供应相对宽松、库存累积的阶段。特朗普政府暂缓对伊朗的军事行动,也使得此前计入油价的地 缘风险溢价部分回吐。此前我们已指出，从近期油价波动显著加剧的表现来看，除非冲突导致大幅 度的石油供应中断,否则油价短期上行空间预计有限。综合来看,原油市场的主基调仍是由供需宽 松主导的承压格局。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属延续强势。欧美围绕格陵兰岛针锋相对成为市场焦点，丹麦养老基金宣布退出美国国债 市场，特朗普对于全球秩序的挑战可能削弱市场对于美元资产的信心，贵金属强势难改，维持多头 思路。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走低，格陵兰岛博弈既提振贵金属，短线也使美元、美债、美股再遭抛售，铜价表现暂与 贯金属脱敏。由于中美铜库存高于LME，LME现铜升水扩至101美元，美国新奥尔良仓库连续第二日 注册仓单。国内铜市"供大于求"为主，仍需关注沪铜减量。继续持有执行价10.4万卖看涨与9.8 万买看跌期权组合。同时倾向少量空单入场背靠MA5日均线持有。 【铝】 ...

| E | . | • | D | 25 | œ | D | 7 | VE | = | 3 | 6 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年01月20日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 特朗普政府暂缓对伊朗的军事行动,也使得此前计入油价的地缘风险溢价部分回吐。此前我们已指出,从近期 油价波动显著加剧的表现来看,除非冲突导致大幅度的石油供应中断,否则油价短期上行空间预计有限。原油 市场的主基调仍是由供需宽松主导的承压格局。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 燃料油市场仍受地缘主导。高硫方面,市场聚焦美伊紧张 ...

| 111 | 国夜期货 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月20日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | 女女女 | | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日金银刷新历史新高。近日特朗普对伊朗相关贸易国和格陵兰岛相关欧洲国家威胁加征关税，欧洲方面做 出回应计划反制。欧美裂痕加剧全球不确定性,她缘争端不断扩大风险提升,特朗普对于全球秩序的挑战给 尚且脆弱的经济前景带来隐忧,资金继续流向黄金市场,贵金属重心抬升趋势不变。 ★格陵兰岛问题：①德国财长：将对美国关税作出强有力回应。②法国财政部长：法国和德国同意就 ...

单位：% 2025/12 2025/09 2025/06 单位：% 2025/12 2025/11 2025/10 GDP当季同比 4.50 4.80 5.20 制造业累计同比 0.60 1.90 2.70 GDP环比 1.20 1.10 1.00 基建累计同比 -1.48 0.13 1.51 GDP累计同比 5.00 5.20 5.30 房地产累计同比 -17.20 -15.90 -14.70 2025/12 2025/11 2025/10 商品房销售面积累计 -8.70 -7.80 -6.80 工业增加值当月同比 5.20 4.80 4.90 商品房销售面积当月 -16.58 -17.93 -19.60 工业增加值累计同比 5.90 6.00 6.10 房屋新开工面积当月 -19.30 -27.73 -29.25 工业增加值环比 0.49 0.44 0.17 房屋施工面积当月 -47.14 -41.59 -7.10 采矿业当月 5.40 6.30 17.50 房屋竣工面积当月 -18.36 -25.40 -27.95 制造业当月 5.70 4.60 39.50 地产开发资金来源当月 -28.09 -32. ...

【原油】 特朗普政府暂缓对伊朗的军事行动,也使得此前计入油价的地缘风险溢价部分回吐。此前我们已指出,从近期 油价波动显著加剧的表现来看,除非冲突导致大幅度的石油供应中断,否则油价短期上行空间预计有限。原油 市场的主基调仍是由供需宽松主导的承压格局。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 燃料油市场仍受地缘主导。高硫方面,市场聚焦美伊紧张局势等地缘风险,作为亚洲重要来源地,伊朗出口若 受阻将收紧区域供应,并威胁霍尔木兹海峡运输安全。委内瑞拉冲突风险虽缓和,但美国高硫表现受委内原料 进口增加压制,若套利窗口打开可能向亚洲传导压力。中期则受原料宽松、浮舱及高库存压制,供应趋于宽 松。低硫方面,冬季需求给予市场一定支撑,但海外炼厂供应提升,科威特阿祖尔炼厂三套CDU装置全部恢复运 行，离港的13万吨低硫燃料油预计于1月下旬抵达新加坡、供应压力初步显现。展望后续，燃料油绝对价格仍跟 随原油波动,高硫因地缘扰动而近月偏强,正套格局看待。低硫因供应边际增加承压,关注汽柴油裂解上行对 低硫形成的底部支撑。 (沥青) | E | . | • | D | 25 | œ | D | 7 | VE | = | 3 | 6 | 2 | | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability in the market) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, with a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical futures market is in a complex situation, with different products showing various trends and drivers. Some products are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by policy, cost, and geopolitical factors. The market is generally in a state of shock, and different products have different investment opportunities and risks [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Both olefin and polyolefin futures contracts closed down in intraday trading. The supply of domestic olefins tightened due to individual plant shutdowns, but weak downstream demand restricted the buying pace. For polyethylene, inventory was smoothly reduced, but the overall downstream operating rate declined slightly, and demand support is expected to weaken. For polypropylene, although there is policy support, demand is weak as downstream factories have completed year - end orders, and the future demand has been pre - consumed [2] 3.2 Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated in the morning and rose rapidly in the afternoon, mainly driven by sentiment due to a rumored unplanned maintenance of a PK plant in the second quarter. Before and after the Spring Festival, demand weakens, and there is limited upward driving force. In the second quarter, there are opportunities for PX processing margin to go long on dips and for positive spreads after the spread narrows, subject to downstream demand. For ethylene glycol, domestic new plants are put into production while overseas plants shut down, with expected supply increase at home and decrease abroad. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future, but the supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter. Short - fiber is mainly driven by cost, and attention should be paid to downstream stocking rhythm around the Spring Festival. Bottle chips' processing margin has recovered, but long - term capacity pressure remains [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures market adjusted in shock, while the spot price continued to rise. Supply decreased due to refinery production cuts and reduced imports, and demand increased, leading to significant inventory reduction at East China ports. The short - term market is expected to be strong in shock. The styrene futures market consolidated in intraday trading. The current supply - demand balance is tight, with limited port arrivals and expected further inventory reduction. Domestic producers' sales are good, and exports provide some support [5] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market continued to decline. Import arrivals decreased significantly, but demand decreased due to plant shutdowns and reduced loads, and the inventory reduction speed is expected to slow down. Although there is support from the expected significant reduction in imports in the first quarter, the short - term market is expected to be in a stalemate. Urea prices are weakly stable. Daily production has recovered, downstream demand has increased, and production enterprises are reducing inventory. In the short term, the market may decline slightly, but in the long term, it is likely to fluctuate strongly within a range [6] 3.5 Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC showed an intraday shock trend. The cost pressure of ethylene - based PVC decreased, while that of calcium carbide - based PVC increased. The operating rate of some enterprises decreased, and the export volume was affected by price changes. It is expected that the price center will rise, and the strategy is to go long on dips. Caustic soda continued to be weak, with high inventory pressure. Although the price of liquid chlorine is strong and the integrated profit is acceptable, the industry is generally in a loss, and the future production reduction needs to be continuously monitored [7] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is operating weakly. Although the weekly inventory has decreased slightly, the overall pressure is still large. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and downstream procurement sentiment is poor. The strategy is to go short on rebounds and wait and see when the price drops near the cost. Glass futures prices have declined. Affected by weather and approaching the holiday, inventory may accumulate. The industry is losing money, but there is a rumor of new production line ignition, and supply may increase slightly. In the long term, the industry needs to reduce capacity. When the futures price drops to around 1000 yuan, there may be a long - buying opportunity [8]

Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, with the steel price following the cost center down and mainly fluctuating within a range. The iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. Coke and coking coal are likely to follow a weakening trend. Silicon manganese and silicon iron need to pay attention to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [2][3][4][5][7][8] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is weak. The profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired, but the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down. The overall domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The steel price mainly fluctuates within a range [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month, while the domestic arrival volume has declined but is much higher than last year. The port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand has improved in the off - season, and the iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [3] Coke - The coke price has declined in an oscillatory manner. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has slightly increased. With sufficient carbon element supply and weak downstream demand, it is likely to follow a weakening trend [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has declined in an oscillatory manner. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the terminal inventory has increased substantially. It is likely to be weakly volatile due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price has rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot price of manganese ore has increased. The demand for silicon manganese has decreased seasonally, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price has rebounded after hitting the bottom. Affected by policies, the supply has decreased significantly, and the demand remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [2] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [3][6] - Alumina: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [3] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [3] - Zinc: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [4] - Lead and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [7] - Tin: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [8] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [9] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [10] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined, but in an analysis situation [11] Core Views - The overall situation of the non - ferrous metal market is complex, with different metals showing different trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and impacts from various factors such as geopolitics, cost changes, and market sentiment [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Tuesday saw Shanghai copper increase in positions and fluctuate with a positive line. The SMM spot copper price was 10,075 yuan, with a Shanghai discount of 150 yuan and a slightly decreased Yangshan copper premium. The refined - scrap price difference was 3,034 yuan. The domestic refined copper output in January is expected to pick up month - on - month. It is recommended to continue holding the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined. Spot premiums and discounts varied in different regions. Overseas geopolitical uncertainty is high, and the price is in high - level fluctuations with support at 23,800 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations with low market activity. Waste aluminum is tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The domestic alumina operating capacity is around 96 million tons, with significant over - supply. The average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan has dropped to around 2,600 yuan, and the spot price is under pressure [3] Zinc - Funds mainly reduced positions, and Shanghai zinc slightly declined. The SMM 0 zinc price was 24,340 yuan/ton. The price has support at 24,300 yuan/ton, but high prices suppress consumption. Although refinery maintenance provides cost support in the short - term, compared with the 2024 global zinc ingot supply - demand pattern, the high point of 25,600 yuan/ton in 2026 is likely to be the annual high, and the downward pressure on zinc ingots is expected to increase after the Spring Festival stocking demand [4] Lead - The SMM 1 lead price was 17,000 yuan/ton. There are expectations of inventory accumulation. Downstream buying willingness is low at high prices, and the import window remains open. The consumption of electric two - wheeler batteries is weak, while the consumption of automotive and energy - storage batteries maintains resilience. The price of Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in high - level fluctuations with active trading. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season, and high - level transactions are blocked. The basis between futures and spot is widening, and negative feedback risks are accumulating. The inventory of nickel and iron has changed, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased. In the short - term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position thinking should be continued [7] Tin - Shanghai tin is increasing positions and fluctuating between the MA5 - 10 moving averages. There are high inventories of tin ingots at home and abroad, and the LME spot discount is large. It is recommended to hold the option of selling call options at a high level [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit again, but downstream acceptance of high prices is weak. After the price fell from the high point, the market trading showed a mild recovery. The overall inventory decline has slowed down. The futures price is in high - level fluctuations with high short - term uncertainty [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened high and went low. Although the news of production cuts by leading enterprises boosted the market, the follow - up sentiment was weak. The spot price is stable, and the supply is expected to shrink significantly. The demand has no clear increase, and the overall procurement willingness is weak. The price is likely to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is hedging pressure above the 9,000 yuan/ton mark [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price rebounded with reduced positions and weak trading volume. The average price of N - type re - feeding materials in the spot market is stable. Leading enterprises plan to stop production at the end of the month, and downstream acceptance of the current price has marginally improved. The component sector's inventory has decreased slightly due to export - rush behavior, but overseas orders are lower than expected. The spot price is expected to rise steadily, and the futures market will continue the weak rebound trend [11]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - In December, domestic industrial crude oil production was 17.8 million tons, a 0.6% year-on-year decline, while processing volume was 62.46 million tons, a 5.0% year-on-year increase. Trump's suspension of military action against Iran led to a partial retreat of geopolitical risk premium. The global crude oil supply-demand structure in Q1 2026 shows significant inventory pressure, and supply surplus remains the main factor suppressing oil prices [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to be strong. Fed officials' negative attitude towards short - term interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in Iran and the Greenland issue maintain the bullish trend of precious metals [2]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded. LME US inventory registration and narrowing of the US - London spread affected the market. Domestic copper market is mainly in a "supply exceeds demand" situation, with social inventory reaching 329,400 tons. It is recommended to hold a combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and bars increased by 13,000 tons each on Monday, and spot feedback was weak. Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan, waiting for a driving factor [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. Tight scrap aluminum supply and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal performance of the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weaker than in previous years [5]. Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, with no long - term production cuts. The alumina market is in significant surplus, with the average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan dropping to around 2,600 yuan. Spot prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices have corrected. Downstream acceptance is limited, and spot trading is weak. The weighted precipitation funds of Shanghai zinc have dropped to 5.1 billion yuan. Considering the import ore TC and downstream pre - holiday stocking demand, the short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton. The annual high is considered to be 25,600 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies [7]. Lead - The import window remains open. Both domestic and foreign markets are in a low - level consolidation due to oversupply. In late January, the resumption of production of domestic primary aluminum smelters is relatively concentrated, increasing supply pressure. The lower support for Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level, and the market is active. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season, with high - level transactions blocked. The negative feedback risk is accumulating. Short - term sentiment is high, and it is advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]. Tin - Overnight, domestic and foreign tin prices rebounded. LME tin ingot inventory increased to 6,440 tons, and the spot discount widened to $104. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand. It is advisable to hold short - call options at a high level [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is weakly oscillating, and the market is active. Downstream acceptance of high prices is weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [10]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - session steel prices mainly oscillated. Rebar apparent demand increased slightly, production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulation slowed down. Hot - rolled coil demand improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to market trends [11]. Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron ore futures market oscillated, and the basis narrowed recently. Supply is in line with seasonal patterns, with a decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil but an increase in non - mainstream shipments. Domestic arrivals decreased. Demand is affected by potential disruptions to iron - making production. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. Coke - The daily price mainly oscillated. The first round of coke price increase is expected to be implemented this week. Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by factors such as coal inventory and policies [13]. Coking Coal - The daily price mainly oscillated. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1,465 tons. Coking coal production increased significantly, terminal inventory increased, and total inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, affected by inventory and policies [14]. Manganese Silicon - The daily price oscillated downward. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventory. Iron - making production decreased seasonally, and silicon - manganese production and inventory decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost support [15]. Silicon Iron - The daily price oscillated downward. Affected by policies, the price is relatively strong. There are expectations of a decrease in power and raw material costs. Iron - making production rebounded, and overall demand is still resilient. Supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant impacts and cost support [16]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Freight Index (European Line) - The inflection point of spot freight rates has been confirmed, leading the futures market into a weak trend. The near - month contract is affected by the actual "rush - shipping" intensity due to export - tax policy adjustments. The 04 contract may oscillate in the short term, and the far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption - of - shipping expectation. Contract rules will be adjusted [17]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical tensions continue to affect the fuel oil market. Geopolitical risks are expected to support the high - sulfur cracking spread, but the supply of high - sulfur heavy - raw materials will tend to be loose in the medium term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and its weak pattern is expected to continue [18]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow crude oil but with limited amplitude. The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil needs to be closely monitored. The market is in an oscillating range [19]. Group 4: Chemicals Urea - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also improved. The short - term market may decline slightly, but with the start of agricultural demand, the market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range [20]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to decline at night. Import arrivals decreased significantly, and port inventory decreased. However, demand from some olefin plants decreased, and the market is expected to oscillate in a stalemate. The expected significant reduction in imports in Q1 provides support [21]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to oscillate strongly at night. Domestic refinery production cuts and reduced imports, along with increased downstream demand, led to a significant reduction in East China port inventory. The short - term market is expected to oscillate strongly [22]. Styrene - Styrene is in a tight - balance state, with limited port arrivals and expected inventory reduction. Domestic production enterprises have good sales, and exports provide some support [23]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The supply of propylene is tight in the short term, but downstream purchasing willingness is limited due to high costs. The demand support for polyethylene is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand fundamentals of polypropylene may lack upward driving force [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC prices are weakening, with a decline in production capacity utilization. The cost is rising, and it is expected to go through capacity reduction. It is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy. Caustic soda is operating weakly, with high inventory pressure [25]. PX and PTA - Before and after the Spring Festival, PX has limited upward - driving force, and PTA follows the raw material. In Q2, considering PX maintenance and polyester production increase, there are opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads. PTA processing spreads will moderately recover in the new year [26]. Ethylene Glycol - Domestic new ethylene - glycol plants are put into operation, and overseas plants are shutting down. Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. In Q2, there are expectations of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery, but the long - term outlook is under pressure due to capacity growth [27]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises have high production loads and low inventories. Downstream orders are weak, and prices follow the raw material. Bottle - chip production has decreased, and processing spreads have recovered, but there is long - term capacity pressure [28]. Glass - Glass prices declined due to new ignition plans. The industry is in a state of inventory reduction, but supply may increase slightly. Processing orders are weak, and the market may enter a seasonal inventory - accumulation period. It is advisable to consider long - buying opportunities when the price drops to around 1,000 yuan [29]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai raw - material prices decline. Natural - rubber supply is decreasing, and demand is gradually recovering. Synthetic - rubber supply is increasing, and inventory trends are different. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [30]. Soda Ash - Soda ash is operating weakly, with high inventory pressure. Production may decline slightly in the short term, but long - term supply pressure is large. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies and wait and see when the price drops to the cost level [31]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day. South American weather has improved, increasing the probability of ENSO neutrality. US soybean exports have strengthened. In China, soybean crushing is expected to increase in January. It is necessary to pay attention to US soybean exports and South American weather [32]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil export data shows an increase, and production shows a decrease, which is beneficial for inventory reduction. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand for US biodiesel. The overall outlook for soybean and palm oil is an oscillating range [33]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - China and Canada have reached a preliminary arrangement on trade issues. If the import policy of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal improves as expected before March 1, it is expected to drive purchases. The short - term view on rapeseed products is bearish [34]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans are oscillating. Policy - driven auction results have a guiding effect on prices. The supply of grassroots grain sources is tight, and high prices suppress demand. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and the spot market [35]. Corn - Snow in Northeast China boosts the bullish sentiment, and transportation of grassroots grain is difficult. Corn prices in Northeast China and northern ports are strong. However, increased auctions by state and local reserves may form pressure. Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [36]. Live Pigs - On Monday, the sentiment of live - pig futures changed significantly. After a weekend increase in prices, the futures prices dropped in the afternoon. The short - term rebound may be over. The industry capacity is showing signs of contraction, and pig prices are expected to reach a low point in the first half of next year [37]. Eggs - After the New Year's Day, egg spot prices have been strengthening. The futures prices have followed the spot, but on Monday, the futures prices dropped significantly. In the long - term, the inventory of laying hens is expected to decline, and it is advisable to adopt a long - buying strategy on dips [38]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to correct. After the previous rise, the positive factors have been mostly reflected. Downstream demand is average, and the reduction in Xinjiang's planting area needs further observation. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [39]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices oscillated. India's sugar production is progressing rapidly, while Thailand's is slow. In China, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Guangxi's production is slow, but there is a strong expectation of an increase in the 2025/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [40]. Apples - Futures prices have corrected. Spot market transactions for the Spring Festival are increasing, but the quality of apples is poor, and the high purchase price and strong reluctance to sell may affect inventory reduction. It is necessary to pay attention to future demand [41]. Wood - Futures prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease in the short term, and demand has increased compared to the same period last year. Low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [42]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices were basically flat. The short - term fundamentals are average due to weak downstream demand. Inventory is accumulating, and the price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing. Paper mills purchase pulp for immediate needs. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [43]. Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, China's A - share indices had mixed performance, and futures indices mostly rose. The geopolitical situation has increased the risk - aversion sentiment. The stock - index trend is expected to change from a one - way increase to an oscillatingly strong trend, with a slower upward slope. It is necessary to pay attention to the transition from liquidity - driven to profit - driven and geopolitical impacts [44]. Treasury Bonds - On January 19, 2026, 30 - year treasury - bond futures led the decline. The first structural "interest - rate cut" of the year was implemented. The central bank adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial - housing loans and carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The money market is gradually becoming loose, but the short - term downward space for interest rates may be limited during the tax - payment period [45].