Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that the price of the 2509 contract of live hogs is in a relatively reasonable range and recommends temporary observation, with an overall view of price oscillation adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - On June 24, the national average price of live hog slaughter was 14.46 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan or 0.35% from the previous day; the price in Henan was 14.74 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan or -0.07% [6]. - Among futures prices, the 07 contract rose 100 yuan to 13,550 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase; the 09 contract fell 40 yuan to 13,940 yuan/ton, a -0.29% decrease [6]. Fundamental Analysis - From the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live hogs is expected to increase monthly until December, but the increase is limited; the first half of the year is the off - season for consumption, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - The fat - standard price difference may oscillate and adjust. The bearish factors include slow weight - reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support in the second and third quarters. The bullish factors are the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the price will oscillate and adjust. The core logic is that with the expected increase in slaughter volume by December, the price is difficult to rise significantly; the current "slaughter volume increase - weight decrease - price stability" relationship in the spot market and the stable rebound of the price difference between 150 - kg hogs and standard hogs support the price, making it difficult to fall significantly; considering the current bullish and bearish factors, the 2509 contract price is in a reasonable range, so it is recommended to observe [4].

生猪日报 | 2025-06-24 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 1、6月23日，生猪注册仓单750手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现下降重利好后市影响震荡 偏强运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓945手，持仓约7.71万手，最高价14010元/ 吨，最低价13925元/吨，收盘于13980元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢，供应压力尚未完全释放；②后续 出栏量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限； 多头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格韧性强，说 明供需不像空头想的那么宽松； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern this week, and the market will maintain an interval oscillation pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather in cotton - producing areas on new cotton output and changes in the macro - policy aspect [3][36] - The cotton textile industry is facing dual pressures of insufficient demand and high costs, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [11][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Basic Data of Domestic and Foreign Cotton Markets - **One - week Data Overview**: As of June 20, the CRB commodity price index rose to 312.53 points, a 0.85% increase from June 13. The ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound, a 1.68% decline. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 09 closed at 13,495 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from June 13, with a cumulative decrease of 0.8 million lots in positions to 5.25 million lots [2][10][35] - **Demand - side Situation**: The cotton yarn futures market showed a high - level oscillation pattern. The downstream orders were weak, and enterprises generally adopted a de - inventory strategy. The market operating rate remained low, and small and medium - sized textile enterprises faced great operating pressure [11][34] Part 2: Domestic Market Basic Situation - **Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends**: On June 20, the raw material price center rose compared with June 13, while the yarn price center showed mixed changes, and the foreign yarn price remained unchanged. The RMB - denominated foreign yarn price increased [15][18][22] - **Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices vs. International Cotton Price Index (Tax - included)**: On June 20, the difference between the domestic cotton spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty expanded, while the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty narrowed [23] - **Domestic and Foreign Cotton and Yarn Price Differences**: On June 20, the domestic - foreign yarn price difference expanded, and the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and ICE cotton was 2,967 yuan/ton (without considering the trade premium) [24][27] Part 3: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: As of June 20, the total of Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 466,000 tons, a decrease from June 13 [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference Analysis**: On June 20, the futures - spot price difference of Zhengzhou cotton expanded compared with June 13 [31] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis**: Macroeconomically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and China's economy continued to recover. In terms of supply, the cotton growth in Xinjiang was good, but attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather. In terms of demand, it was in the off - season, and the industry faced dual pressures. Technically, the technical indicators were strong [32][33][38] Part 4: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From June 6 - 12, the net signing of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton increased by 38% compared with the previous week. The net signing of Pima cotton was - 431 tons. New - year contracts were also signed. As of June 10, the CFTC fund's net long position decreased by 5,999 lots compared with the previous week [41][43] - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On June 20, the ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound compared with June 13, and the technical indicators were weak [44] Part 5: Operation Suggestions - The Zhengzhou cotton price should be treated with an oscillatory view. Downstream textile enterprises can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs is expected to be weak with fluctuations. The main reasons are that the supply of live pigs will be abundant in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. Although there is a possibility of the spot price hitting a new low, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On June 18, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 750 lots. The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on the regression of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 1,467 lots today, with a position of about 80,000 lots, a maximum price of 13,880 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,765 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,835 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season. The fat - standard spread may fluctuate and adjust. The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding industry, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and weak demand support in the second and third quarters. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, the strong resilience of spot prices, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume and the approaching of the consumption peak season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be weak with fluctuations. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. If there is a large - scale and concentrated weight reduction in June and July, the pig price may hit a new low. Although the spot price may reach a new low, the 09 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On June 18, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with the previous day, a decline of 0.07%. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.38 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg compared with the previous day, an increase of 0.49%. The slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg compared with the previous day, a decline of 0.72%. Among the futures prices, the prices of various contracts all showed an upward trend, with the increase ranging from 0.04% to 0.26% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report provides historical data on national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [7][8][9][10][11][12][13].

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report | 2025-06-18 [1] - Author: Shi Xiangying, Pig Analyst [5] - Contact: Email - shixy@hrrdqh.com, Phone - 0371-69106756 [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall view on the pig market is weak - oscillating. The main reasons are that the pig supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and the demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, so there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract [4]. Summary by Section 1. Market Dynamics - On June 17, the number of registered pig warehouse receipts was 750 lots. The LH2507 contract focuses on the convergence of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are oscillating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in future slaughter volume. The main contract (LH2509) added 927 lots today, with a position of about 80,000 lots, a maximum price of 13,855 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,755 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,815 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of sows capable of reproduction, the pig supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the pig slaughter volume will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may oscillate and adjust [3]. - Market bearish logic: slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters. Bullish logic: there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and limited increase in future slaughter volume while gradually entering the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is weak - oscillating. The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, the demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, if there is concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract as its price is currently in a relatively reasonable range [4]. 4. Market Data - On June 17, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.23 yuan/kg, a 0.14% increase from the previous day. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also increased slightly. Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 01, 09, and 11 contracts increased slightly, while the 03, 05 contracts decreased. The main basis in Henan decreased by 4.81% [6].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the pig market is weak with fluctuations [4]. - From the data of sows and piglets, the supply of pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices [4]. - The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [4]. - If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows [4]. - Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, the uncertainty is high, and the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, the price of the 09 contract is considered to be in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - On June 16, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 750 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on the regression of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 500 lots today, with a position of about 80,000 lots, a maximum price of 13,850 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,750 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,780 yuan/ton [2]. - The national average live pig slaughter price on June 16 was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan or 0.64% from June 13. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also increased to varying degrees [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of the 01, 07 contracts increased slightly, while the prices of the 03, 05, 09, 11 contracts decreased slightly [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 200 yuan to 520 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.5% [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices in the second and third quarters [3]. - The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - The view is weak with fluctuations [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs is abundant in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, the demand support for pig prices is weak in the second and third quarters, if there is concentrated and large - scale weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows, and the 09 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The demand in the first half of the year is off - peak, while the second half is peak season. The fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. For the 2509 contract, it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Against the backdrop of spot price decline due to weight reduction, the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted in a moderately strong manner. On June 13, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 320 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: Against the backdrop of weak spot prices, the spreads of some contracts showed reverse arbitrage trends [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: A decrease in slaughter volume and a drop in pig prices indicate pressure on the supply side, leading to the decline in pig prices [14]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The regional price difference is gradually returning to normal [16]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs adjusted weakly in a fluctuating manner. If it strengthens, it may weaken the willingness of the breeding end to reduce weight [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Hair - White Price Difference**: The terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen price difference for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight is decreasing rapidly, and the pressure of previous inventory accumulation is gradually being released [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: As of the end of April, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a flat month - on - month change and a 1.3% year - on - year increase. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows in May continued to increase [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in May but remained at a low level [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In May, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, indicating a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15kg piglets continued to decline, and the price of 50kg binary sows was stable with a slight weakening trend [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 20% year - on - year increase. The frozen product market has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices has changed from bullish to neutral - bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In April 2025, the import volume of pork was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the pig market is weak with fluctuations. The supply of pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, and it is difficult to support a significant increase. If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows. However, the 09 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On June 12, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 750 lots. The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot-futures convergence and delivery games, while the far-month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume. The main contract (LH2509) added 2,093 lots today, with a position of approximately 79,500 lots, a maximum price of 13,770 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,540 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,750 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month by month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off-season, while the second half is the peak season. Historically and currently, the fat-to-standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust. The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is weak with fluctuations. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices. If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows. Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, the uncertainty is high, and the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 4. Market Overview - On June 12, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.07 yuan/kg and 13.91 yuan/kg respectively, with Henan decreasing by 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.35% and Sichuan remaining unchanged. Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts were 13,610 yuan/ton, 12,770 yuan/ton, 12,990 yuan/ton, 13,220 yuan/ton, 13,750 yuan/ton, and 13,390 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract increasing by 150 yuan/ton or 1.1%. The main basis in Henan was 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 38.46% from the previous day [6]. 5. Key Data Tracking - Data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts are provided, with the data source being Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs is expected to be weak with fluctuations [4]. - The reasons include sufficient supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 based on sow and piglet data, weak demand support in the second and third quarters, and the possibility of a new low in prices if there is concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Market Overview - On June 11, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.02 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.12 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan or -0.07%, and in Sichuan it was 13.91 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan or 0.51% [6]. - For futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or -0.07%; the 03 contract was 12,775 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08%; the 05 contract was 12,995 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.19%; the 07 contract was 13,215 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or -0.08%; the 09 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04%; the 11 contract was 13,325 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.26% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan was 520 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or -2.8% [6]. II. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14]. III. Market Dynamics - On June 11, the number of registered live - pig warehouse receipts was 525 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly about the convergence of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the expected decline in spot prices and the possible increase in future slaughter volume [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 888 lots today, with a position of about 77,400 lots. The highest price was 13,670 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,570 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,600 yuan/ton [2]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes that the farming side has not reduced the weight of pigs, future slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and demand support is limited in the second and third quarters. The long - side logic includes that there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is firm, and although the future slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited and the fourth quarter is the peak consumption season [3]. V. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will be weak with fluctuations [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, demand support is weak in the second and third quarters, a new low in prices may occur if there is concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, and the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the price of live pigs will be in a weak and volatile state. The main reasons are that the supply of live pigs will be abundant from the second to the fourth quarter of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. Although the spot price may reach a new low, the price of the 09 contract is considered to be in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On June 10, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 525 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly based on the regression of futures and spot prices and the game of delivery. The far - month contracts are affected by the decline of spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume, showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 1,258 lots today, with a position of about 78,600 lots. The highest price was 13,505 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,475 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes: the farming side has not yet reduced the weight of pigs, which is actually bearish for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons, and the demand support for pig prices is limited. The bullish logic includes: there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be weak and volatile [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters is weak, and it is difficult to support a significant increase in pig prices. If there is a concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may reach a new low. Although the spot price may reach a new low, due to the high uncertainty and the fact that the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract, it is considered that the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On June 10, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.01 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.65% compared with the previous day. The average slaughter price in Henan was 14.13 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.58%. The average slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.73% [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of most contracts increased, with the 07 contract increasing by 1.19% and the 09 contract increasing by 0.89%, while the 11 contract decreased by 0.08% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 100 yuan/ton or 22.99% to 535 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking The report provides data charts on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].