2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1488手，持仓约7.94万手，最高价13690元/ 吨，最低价13380元/吨，收盘于13640元/吨。 生猪日报 | 2025-05-30 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月29日，生猪注册仓单450手； 3）现下生猪出栏体重虽略有下降，但仍处高位，利空后市，若后面出现集中降 重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈，盘面价格处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍 ...

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-05-28 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月27日，生猪注册仓单490手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓680手，持仓约8万手，最高价13610元/吨，最 低价13495元/吨，收盘于13560元/吨。 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025年二三四季度生猪出栏量均充裕，猪价暂无大 涨基础； 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 2）二三季度需求对猪价的支撑偏弱，难以支持猪价有明显涨幅； 3）现下生猪出栏体重仍在增加，说明养殖端仍在累库，利空后市，若后面出现 集中降重，猪价或出现新低； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈，盘面价格处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 作者： 史香迎 生猪分析师 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相 ...

生猪日报 | 2025-05-27 另存为PDF 分享 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月26日，生猪注册仓单700手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓1898手，持仓约8万手，最高价13640元/吨， 最低价13550元/吨，收盘于13600元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： ...

生猪日报 | 2025-05-23 另存为PDF 【期价震荡偏弱】 【市场动态】 1、5月22日，生猪注册仓单663手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓2101手，持仓约8.07万手，最高价13685元/ 吨，最低价13515元/吨，收盘于13580元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 4）虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能，但由于其不确定性较高，且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈，盘面价格处于相对合理区间，建议暂时观望。 作者： 史香迎 生猪分析师 期货从业资格：F03086321 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍 ...

生猪日报 | 2025-05-22 另存为PDF 【期价震荡偏弱】 【市场动态】 1、5月21日，生猪注册仓单663手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓118手，持仓约7.86万手，最高价13695元/ 吨，最低价13610元/吨，收盘于13650元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may reach new lows [4] - The core logic includes sufficient hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, weak demand support in Q2 and Q3, increasing hog slaughter weight indicating inventory accumulation, and high uncertainty in the medium - to - long - term new low of spot prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On May 20, 2025, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 678 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about futures - cash convergence and delivery game, and the far - month contracts are weakly fluctuating due to the possible increase in future slaughter volume [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 663 lots today, with a position of about 78,700 lots, a maximum price of 13,730 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,665 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,690 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly but with a limited margin. From the perspective of piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard spread may fluctuate and adjust [3] - The short - side logic includes that the breeding side has not reduced the weight, the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to increase, and the demand support for hog prices in Q2 and Q3 is limited. The long - side logic includes that the frozen product inventory still has room to increase, the spot price is firm, and the subsequent slaughter increase is limited with the approaching of the peak consumption season in Q3 and Q4 [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may reach new lows. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] - The core logic for the strategy is that the hog slaughter volume in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 is abundant, the demand support in Q2 and Q3 is weak, the increasing hog slaughter weight indicates inventory accumulation, and the uncertainty of the new low of spot prices is high with a weak short - term weight - reduction drive and a relatively reasonable futures price [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On May 20, 2025, the national hog slaughter price was 14.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% compared with May 19. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47%. In Sichuan, the 01 - contract price was 13,595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.04%, the 03 - contract price was 13,010 yuan/ton with no change, the 05 - contract price was 14,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton or 1.13%, the 07 - contract price was 13,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton or 0.41%, the 09 - contract price was 13,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.04%, and the 11 - contract price was 13,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% [6] - The main - contract basis in Henan was 1,030 yuan/ton on May 20, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton or 6.79% compared with May 19 [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the national hog slaughter price, sample - enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip average price, corn national grain - depot purchase average price, futures - contract closing price in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price difference between the 07 - 09 contracts, and the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][10][11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is a possibility of new lows in pig prices in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Based on piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until September, and with sufficient supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise strongly. However, there is still marginal profit for weight gain within 150 kg, and the entry of second - fattening may support the spot price when it drops to around 14 yuan/kg. The 2509 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End 3.1.1 Main Contract Basis Situation - Affected by the continuously high slaughter weight, the market expects the future pig slaughter pressure to remain, and the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs has adjusted weakly with fluctuations. The basis of the main contract on May 16, 2025, was 1200 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.1.2 Price Changes of Each Contract - The prices of far - month contracts fluctuate [5]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread Changes - Due to the continuously high slaughter weight, the market expects the slaughter pressure to shift backward. The spread between the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts shows a positive spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End 3.2.1 Pig Price and Slaughter Volume - This week, pig prices have slightly loosened, and the slaughter volume has continued to decline [13]. 3.2.2 Regional Spread - Overall, Henan is a high - price area this year [15]. 3.2.3 Fat - Standard Price Spread - The fat - standard price spread is still weakly fluctuating, and the supply of fat pigs is sufficient [17]. 3.2.4 Fresh Sales and Gross - Net Price Spread - Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [19]. 3.2.5 Comparison of Related Products and Fresh - Frozen Spread - The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen spread for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [21]. 3.2.6 Breeding Profit - The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [23]. 3.2.7 Slaughter Weight - The slaughter weight is stable. Although the weights of retail and group ports have been adjusted this week, the actual slaughter weights of both retail and group ports are still increasing [25]. 3.3 Production Capacity End 3.3.1 Inventory of Reproductive Sows - According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of March was 40.39 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Data from Yongyi Consulting and My steel show that the inventory of reproductive sows in their samples increased in April [27]. 3.3.2 Sow Culling Situation - The price of culled sows has been running steadily this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in April [30]. 3.3.3 Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets - In April, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, indicating a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. 3.3.4 Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm - The price of 15 - kg piglets continued to decline this week, while the price of 50 - kg binary sows was running steadily [34]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In March, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.63 million, a month - on - month increase of 40.7% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. Slaughter enterprises have the action of dividing and warehousing frozen products, which supports pig prices [36]. 3.5 Import End - In March 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows [4] - The basis is that from sow and piglet data, hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 are abundant, demand support in Q2 and Q3 is weak, current hog slaughter weight is increasing, and although there is uncertainty about new lows in the medium - to - long - term, the short - term market has no strong motivation to reduce weight and the futures price is in a reasonable range [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On May 15, the number of registered hog warehouse receipts was 701 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery game, and the far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the possible increase in subsequent slaughter volume [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 5,221 lots today, with a position of about 77,600 lots, a maximum price of 14,015 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,735 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,780 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly but with a limited range. From the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Short - side logic: The breeding side has not reduced weight, subsequent slaughter volume is expected to increase, and demand support in Q2 and Q3 is limited. Long - side logic: There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is firm, the increase in subsequent slaughter volume is limited, and rising corn and soybean meal prices may increase hog breeding costs [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is that short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, there may be new lows [4] - The core logic includes abundant hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025, weak demand support in Q2 and Q3, increasing hog slaughter weight indicating inventory accumulation by the breeding side, and although there may be new lows in the medium - to - long - term, due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight - reduction motivation, it is recommended to wait and see [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On May 15, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.68 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.41% from the previous day. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased [6] - Futures prices of various contracts decreased, with the 09 - contract dropping by 240 yuan/ton or 1.71% [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 140 yuan/ton or 13.46% [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price difference between the 07 - 09 contracts, and the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the medium - to - long - term, hog prices may still hit new lows [4] - From sow and piglet data, hog supplies in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in hog prices [4] - Demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for hog prices and cannot drive obvious price increases [4] - The current increasing hog slaughter weight indicates that the breeding side is still accumulating inventory, which is bearish for the future market. If there is a concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may hit new lows [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On May 12, 2025, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 704 lots [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot - futures convergence and delivery games, and contradictions in the far - month contracts are still accumulating, with the futures price fluctuating and adjusting [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 35 lots in positions today, with approximately 71,400 lots held. The highest price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,855 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,870 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, hog supplies from March to December are expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. Piglet data shows that hog slaughter volumes will generally increase in Q2 and Q3 of 2025. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off - season, and the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Market bearish logic: The breeding side has not yet reduced weights, which is actually bearish for the future market; subsequent slaughter volumes are expected to continue to increase; Q2 and Q3 are not the consumption peak seasons, and demand support for hog prices is limited [3] - Market bullish logic: There is still room for an increase in frozen - product inventory, which can support hog prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season; rising prices of corn and soybean meal may increase hog breeding costs [3] 3. Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to wait and see for now because although there may be new lows in the spot market in the medium - to - long - term, the uncertainty is high, the short - term weight - reduction driving force in the market is not strong, and the futures price is in a relatively reasonable range [4] 4. Market Overview - On May 12, 2025, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.77 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.14% from May 9 [6] - The hog slaughter price in Henan remained unchanged at 15.11 yuan/kg, while in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg to 14.57 yuan/kg, a decline of 0.68% [6] - Among the futures prices, the 01, 03, 09, and 11 contracts decreased, with declines ranging from 0.19% to 0.39%, while the 05 and 07 contracts increased, with increases of 0.39% and 0.22% respectively [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 105 yuan/ton to 1,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.25% [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends of national hog slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, national corn purchase prices in grain depots, futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, the main contract basis in the Henan region, 07 - 09 contract spreads, and 09 - 11 contract spreads from 2021 to 2025 [7][8][10][11][13]

下载图片 另存为PDF 分享 生猪周报 | 2025-05-12 【多空交织 猪价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、5月9日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、钢联数据显示，5月重点省份养殖企业计划出栏量环比+1.22%；涌益咨询数据显示，5月其样本点计划出栏量环比+1.98%； 3、主力合约（LH2509）震荡调整，收盘于13925元/吨，持仓量约7.13万手。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加； 需求端来看，上半年较下半年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需 求对猪价的支撑有限；多头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续 出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：现货短期震荡，中长期不排除猪价新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1 ...