瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.13」 碳酸锂市场周报 长假将至供需双减，锂价或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡走强，涨跌幅为14.84%，振幅15.06%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价152640元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，1月份，我国CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，核心CPI同比上 涨0.8%；PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，同比则下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5 个百分点。基本面原料端，锂矿价格随锂价区间波动，矿商出货意愿较强，但冶炼厂由于备货较为充足，态度偏谨慎 观望。供给端，上游冶炼厂因春节长假来临而生产产能有所减弱，加之物流停运，国内供给量逐步收减。需求端，由 于假期放假原因，加之前期锂价回落时节前采买备货基本已完成，现货市场成交较为零星，逐步清淡。整体来看，碳 酸锂基本面或将处于供需双减的局面，产业库存逐步下降 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.02.13」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场偏强窄幅波动，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂涨至1760-1800 元/吨，均价环比上涨5元/吨。虽然本周期处于尿素工厂春节前的最后收单冲击，但下游补仓较为 积极，工厂并未出现明显让利销售情况，报价重心逐渐上移。 行情展望：前期部分检修装置恢复，带动国内尿素产量增加，下周暂无企业装置计划停车，1家停 车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，预计产量变动不大。近期局部农业少量 刚需存在，多数也随着春节的到来需求暂时搁置。本周复合肥企业陆续进入降负荷阶段，产能利 用率环比下降，短期预计产能利用率保持低位水平，节后初八后陆续复工复产。本周国内尿素企 业库存继续下降，春节前下游补仓进度好于预期，工厂出货量较大，下周春节假期长途物流发运 减少，尿素工厂或逐渐出现累库。 策略建议：长假期间关注外盘宏观形势、地 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market fluctuated narrowly, while the inland methanol price rose slightly. The pre - holiday inventory clearance work of enterprises was successfully completed, and the market was mainly focused on pre - selling holiday and post - holiday orders. Some local markets showed signs of bottoming out and warming up [7]. - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts in the domestic methanol industry is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall production. The pre - holiday inventory clearance and pre - selling of goods in the inland area were carried out smoothly, and most enterprises currently have no inventory and are in a situation of queuing for loading. It is expected that the inventory of inland production enterprises will increase during the holiday. The port methanol inventory increased slightly this week, and it may rise steadily during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The price range in Jiangsu was 2170 - 2240 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, it was 2200 - 2230 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price rose slightly, with the price range in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area being 1805 - 1873 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying being 2180 - 2190 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic methanol production will decrease due to more production capacity loss from maintenance and cuts. The inland inventory decreased this week but is expected to increase during the holiday. The port inventory increased slightly this week and may rise steadily during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to the external macro - situation, geopolitical situation, and crude oil prices during the long holiday [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 2.5% [11]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of February 13, the MA 5 - 9 spread was - 32 [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: As of February 12, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 8032, an increase of 50 compared with last week [23]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of February 12, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2212.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 1850 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 362.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [29]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of February 12, the CFR price of methanol at the main port in China was 264 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main port in China was 59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared with last week [34]. - **Basis**: As of February 12, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 18.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of February 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of February 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [41]. - **Industry**: As of February 12, China's methanol production was 2,056,795 tons, a decrease of 240 tons compared with last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 92.07%, a decrease of 0.01% compared with the previous week. As of February 11, the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 340,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 7.61% compared with the previous period; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 315,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 9.75% compared with the previous period. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4322 million tons, an increase of 21,200 tons compared with the previous data. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of methanol in China from January to December was 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of February 12, the methanol import profit was - 15.97 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with last week [44][50][55]. - **Downstream**: As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.16%, an increase of 1.34% compared with the previous week. As of February 13, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 796 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [58][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic inflation in January showed a slight decline, and the weak fundamentals still supported the bond market. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure of government bonds was limited, but as the Two Sessions approached, the expectation of pro - growth policies might gradually heat up. If the equity market continued the spring market, the bond market would face the pressure of capital diversion. In the short term, the probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts was not high, and the bond market sentiment before the Two Sessions might tend to be watchful, with interest rates expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [101] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year Treasury futures' main contracts rose by 0.24%, 0.08%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract fell by 0.01%. For the front two CTD of each term, their bond prices also showed different degrees of increase. The trading volume of TS, TF, T main contracts increased, while that of TL main contract decreased; the positions of TF, TS, T, TL main contracts all decreased [13][30] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Policy news**: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out Treasury bond trading operations regularly. The three major exchanges optimized a package of refinancing measures, and the Ministry of Commerce encouraged consumer goods trade - in during the Spring Festival [33][34] - **Overseas news**: The U.S. non - farm payrolls in January increased strongly, the unemployment rate dropped to a new low since August 2025. Japan's ruling coalition won the election, and the prime minister mentioned tax cuts and cooperation with the U.S [35] 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread changes**: The yield spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bonds narrowed; the spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened; the 10 - year contract's inter - term spread slightly narrowed, while the 30 - year contract's inter - term spread widened; the 5 - year and 2 - year contract's inter - term spreads widened [43][49][53] - **Treasury futures' main positions change**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury futures main contract increased [67] - **Interest rate changes**: The overnight, 1 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates declined, the 2 - week Shibor rate increased, and the DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.43%. Most of the Treasury bond spot yields declined, with the 2 - 7Y yields down 0.3 - 2.0bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields down 2bp and 0.6bp to 1.78% and 2.22% respectively. The yield spreads between Chinese and U.S. 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds narrowed [71][77] - **Central bank's open - market operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 1614.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase in the open market, with 405.5 billion yuan due; carried out 50 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase, and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposit, achieving a net investment of 185.89 billion yuan [80] - **Bond issuance and maturity**: This week, the bond issuance was 127.0428 billion yuan, the total repayment was 140.8638 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 13.821 billion yuan [84] - **Market sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was 6.9398, up 192 basis points this week, and the spread between offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield declined, and the VIX index rose significantly. The 10 - year Treasury yield in China declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [90][93][98] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Domestically, the CPI in January decreased slightly due to the Spring Festival effect, but the core inflation continued to improve. The PPI was expected to recover to the positive range in the first half of the year. Overseas, the U.S. employment market was stabilizing, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was postponed. Before the festival, the central bank injected a large amount of liquidity, and the bond market was supported by weak fundamentals. After the festival, the bond market might face capital diversion pressure, and interest rates were expected to fluctuate within a range [101]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The USDA raised the US corn export forecast to 3.3 billion bushels and lowered the ending stock forecast to 2.127 billion bushels in this month's supply and demand report. The global corn ending stock forecast was lowered to 288.98 million tons, which is lower than last month's 290.91 million tons and the analysts' average expectation of 290.48 million tons. The report data is slightly positive, boosting the US corn market price. However, the import profit of Chinese buying ships remains good, and there is still potential import pressure in the international market [3]. - In the domestic market, the enthusiasm of grass - roots farmers in the Northeast production area to sell grain is not high, the purchasing enthusiasm of drying towers has declined, and some drying towers have stopped purchasing. Feed enterprises have basically completed their pre - holiday stockpiling, and deep - processing enterprises have gradually entered the stage of production suspension and purchase suspension. The market trading activity is not high, and the price is mainly stable [3]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, corn starch production enterprises have gradually started maintenance, and the industry operating rate has declined. However, logistics transportation has significantly shrunk, and industry inventory has increased. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.025 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 3.02%, a monthly decrease of 0.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.90%. From the disk perspective, boosted by the strengthening of corn, starch has risen synchronously, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2,320 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month spread (5 - 9) of 4 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,572 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month spread (3 - 5) of - 4 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1,220,455 lots, an increase of 45,782 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 71,986 lots, a decrease of 19,866 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn is - 196,629 lots, a decrease of 22,526 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch is - 38,429 lots, a decrease of 522 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 88,570 lots, and that of corn starch is 11,161 lots [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 319 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 427.75 cents/bushel, a decrease of 1 cent; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1,740,882 contracts, an increase of 33,428 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 34,698 contracts, a decrease of 3,027 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2,372.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.77 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The f.o.b. price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2,022.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 52 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 52.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. Substitute Spot Price - The average spot price of wheat is 2,530.72 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 575 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 184 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 425.53 million tons, and the sown area is 36.44 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, and the sown area is 22.6 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, and the sown area is 7.5 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, and the sown area is 44.3 million hectares [2]. - The predicted annual corn production in Ukraine is 29 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory at southern ports is 704,000 tons, an increase of 199,000 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 5.127 million tons, an increase of 722,000 tons [2]. - The corn inventory at northern ports is 2.13 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 1.025 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 800,000 tons, an increase of 240,000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16,740 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3.0086 million tons, an increase of 30,700 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 46 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory days of sample feed corn is 32.59 days, an increase of 0.66 days; the processing profit of corn starch in Hebei is 63 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 135,720 tons, a decrease of 2,820 tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin is - 71 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises (weekly) is 58.03%, an increase of 0.6%; the operating rate of starch enterprises (weekly) is 55.68%, a decrease of 2.11% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.9%, an increase of 0.17%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.02%, a decrease of 2.01% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.54%, an increase of 3.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.55%, an increase of 3.58% [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect that the report will show that the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending February 5, 2026, may range from 600,000 to 1.2 million tons [2]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said that the estimated corn export volume of Brazil in February 2026 is 953,000 tons, higher than the estimate of 793,000 tons a week ago, lower than 3.25 million tons in January, and lower than 1.317 million tons in February 2025 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2603 fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1,958 yuan/ton. This week, the operating loads in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased slightly but remained at a high level [2]. - Affected by the maintenance of some domestic alumina plants, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly. The load of some viscose staple fiber units was slightly adjusted, and the operating rate decreased slightly. Printing and dyeing enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have fully taken holidays and stopped production, and the printing and dyeing operating rate has dropped to 0% [2]. - Some downstream enterprises in East and South China actively replenished their stocks this week, and some production enterprises in North and Northwest China cleared their inventories before the Spring Festival. The inventory of liquid caustic soda plants across the country decreased month - on - month, but the inventory was still at a relatively high level compared to the same period [2]. - Affected by the weak price of liquid chlorine, Shandong's chlor - alkali profit showed a downward trend this week, and the theoretical loss of enterprises deepened. With the decline of chlor - alkali profit, the market price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has gradually stopped falling and rebounded. However, in the short term, the caustic soda price is still suppressed by high domestic supply and weak demand. Sustained rebound requires the support of production cuts by chlor - alkali plants in the future [2]. - After the Spring Festival, as the delivery month of the 03 contract approaches, the price rebound space is limited. The daily range of SH2603 is expected to be around 1,930 - 2,000. The 05 contract trades on the expectation of chlor - alkali plant maintenance, and the price has relatively high upward elasticity. The daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2,130 - 2,200 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 1,958 yuan/ton, and the position of the main caustic soda contract was 90,829 lots, a decrease of 21,499 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures traders in caustic soda was - 1,150 lots, and the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 170,290 lots, a decrease of 89,978 lots [2]. - The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2,168 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu it was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 1,875 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 237.5 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in the Northwest it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Jiangsu it was 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry News - From February 6th to February 12th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% [2]. - From January 31st to February 6th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.71% month - on - month to 84.06%. From January 30th to February 5th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.15% month - on - month to 88.28%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 27.91% month - on - month to 0% [2]. - As of February 5th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above across the country was 471,400 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.41% and a year - on - year increase of 2.97% [2]. - On February 12th, the daily profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was - 266 yuan/ton [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,800.00 | -24.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,500.00 | -76.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 562,439.00 | -3181.00↓ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 366,676.00 | +21723.00↑ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -26,604.00 | +759.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -11,364.00 | +6459.00↑ | | | SM5-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 38.00 | 0.00 SF4-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -22.00 | -8.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 46,543.00 | +6843.00↑ SF 仓单（日，张） | 8,163.00 | -21.00↓ | | 现货市场 | 内蒙古锰硅 FeMn68Si18 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The report expects zinc futures in Shanghai to fluctuate and adjust, with the price likely to stay between 24300 - 25000 yuan/ton. The upward momentum is insufficient [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 24650 yuan/ton, up 65 from the previous period. The 03 - 04 contract spread is -20 yuan/ton, up 35 [3] - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3418 dollars/ton, up 20. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 193888 lots, up 649 [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4214 lots, up 2555. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3] - The SHFE inventory is 70689 tons (weekly), up 5535. The LME inventory is 105250 tons (daily), down 1500 [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 24480 yuan/ton, up 20. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 24400 yuan/ton, up 240 [3] - The basis of the main zinc contract is -170 yuan/ton, down 45. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is -17.8 dollars/ton, up 1.75 [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21340 yuan/ton, up 10. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35700 tons (monthly), down 14700. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7700 tons (monthly), down 4900 [3] - The global zinc mine production (monthly) is 1.0627 million tons, down 11900. The domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 675000 tons, up 21000 [3] - The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 462600 tons, down 53900 [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 8760.85 tons, down 9469.07. The refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 27266.66 tons, down 15548.89 [3] - The zinc social inventory is 128000 tons (weekly), up 9500 [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets (monthly) is 2.36 million tons, up 20000. The sales volume of galvanized sheets (monthly) is 2.36 million tons, down 60000 [3] - The new housing construction area (monthly) is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million. The housing completion area (monthly) is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million [3] - The automobile production (monthly) is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107500. The air - conditioner production (monthly) is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 22.92% (daily), down 0.45. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 22.92% (daily), down 0.45 [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 38.46% (daily), down 0.09. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 19.2% (daily), up 0.02 [3] Industry News - In the macro - aspect, the US January non - farm payrolls report was strong, pushing back the market's expectation of the first interest - rate cut from June to July. China's January CPI year - on - year increase fell to 0.2%, and the PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4% [3] - In the fundamental aspect, the zinc ore imports in China are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines cut production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for domestic ore purchases has increased, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with production expected to be restricted [3] - The LME zinc price has corrected recently, the SHFE - LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning into the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors also weakening, while policies in the automobile and other fields bring some bright spots [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 红枣产业日报 2026-02-12 慎预期。长假临近，注意风险控制。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) -40 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 8855 | | 107927 | -5662 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) 508 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | -14493 | | 3673 | | ...

停机放假，暂停对原料的采购，纱线库存明显增加。不过市场普遍存在植棉面积调减预期，对棉价形成有 力支撑。考虑到当前长假临近，短期暂且观望为主。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 棉花(纱)产业日报 2026-02-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14790 | 45 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20655 | 65 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓 ...