瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.13」 鸡蛋市场周报 资金避险情绪升温 期价低位有所反弹 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋明显走强，2604合约收盘价为3251元/500千克，较前一周+86元/500千克。 Ø Ø 行情展望：前期补栏相对偏低，现阶段新增开产压力不大，蛋鸡存栏仍将处于下滑趋势中。不过， 当前蛋鸡在产存栏仍然处于高位，且节前备货进入尾声，走货平稳，供需相对平衡，养殖端盈利 尚可、挺价意愿较强。在利润向好支撑下，雏鸡补栏积极性提升而老鸡淘汰积极性略有放缓，弱 化存栏下滑预期。盘面来看，节前资金避险情绪升温，本周期价明显回弹，空仓过节。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 图2、大商所鸡蛋指数期货前二十名持仓变化 来源：大商所 瑞达期货研究院 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust, and stainless steel futures prices will also fluctuate and adjust [9] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Nickel - **Weekly Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose first and then fell, with a weekly gain of +2.54% and an amplitude of 7.33%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 135,190 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Outlook**: The US existing - home sales in January were lower than expected. The import of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decline due to the rainy season. Indonesia plans to cut the RKAB quota significantly next year, and the raw material supply is expected to shrink in the second quarter. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel Mine, will be significantly lower than that in 2025. The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and the production profit has room for improvement, so the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. The demand from stainless steel mills and the new - energy vehicle industry is increasing. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing. Technically, the position is stable, and the market sentiment is flat [9] Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: This week, stainless steel rose first and then fell, with a weekly gain of +1.39% and an amplitude of 4.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 13,860 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Outlook**: The raw material supply of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening, and nickel - iron production will face pressure to cut production. The production profit of stainless steel mills has improved, but the increase in nickel - iron prices has raised the cost. The end - of - year maintenance of steel mills increases, and the output growth is limited. The downstream demand is turning to the off - season, but the export volume remains high. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading atmosphere calms down, and the social inventory of stainless steel begins to accumulate seasonally. Technically, the position decreases, and both long and short positions are cautious [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Price Movement - As of February 13, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 135,190 yuan/ton, up 3,350 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from last week [15] - As of February 13, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the country was 1,045 yuan/nickel, up 5 yuan/nickel from last week [15] Basis - As of February 13, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 140,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,910 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 14,650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 790 yuan/ton [20] Price Ratio - As of February 13, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.75, up 0.11 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.7 yuan/ton, down 0 from last week [27] Net Long Positions - As of February 12, 2026, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 52,531 lots, an increase of 6,355 lots from February 6, 2026. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 3,583 lots, an increase of 956 lots from February 6, 2026 [31] 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions Supply Side - **Nickel Ore Inventory and Production Profit**: As of February 6, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 1,108.53 million tons, a decrease of 63.81 million tons from last week. As of February 13, the production profit of electrowon nickel was - 7,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,600 yuan/ton from last week [39][40] - **Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Import**: In December 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 29,058 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16%. In December 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 23,861.23 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.83%. From January to December, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 233,105.581 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133.4% [43] - **Exchange Inventories**: As of February 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 58,775 tons, an increase of 1,318 tons from last week. As of February 13, the LME nickel inventory was 286,386 tons, an increase of 2,238 tons from last week [51] Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export**: In January 2026, the total output of stainless crude steel was 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.46%. Among them, the output of 400 - series stainless steel was 645,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.64%; the output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.8581 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.35%; the output of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.0331 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.85%. In December 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 141,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,300 tons; the export volume was 404,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71,300 tons. From January to February, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.7324 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 262,900 tons [55] - **Regional Stainless Steel Inventory**: As of February 13, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 304,983 tons, an increase of 19,938 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 531,769 tons, an increase of 15,626 tons from last week [60] - **Stainless Steel Production Profit**: As of February 13, the stainless steel production profit was 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from last week [64] - **Related Industries**: In 2025, the real estate industry showed a weak downward trend, with the new - construction area, completion area, and development investment all decreasing year - on - year. In December 2025, the output of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, while the output of household refrigerators and freezers increased year - on - year, and the output of washing machines decreased year - on - year. In January 2026, the production of new - energy vehicles was flat year - on - year, and the sales decreased year - on - year. In December 2025, the output of excavators and large - and medium - sized tractors increased year - on - year, while the output of small tractors decreased year - on - year [68][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments and face downward pressure. This is due to factors such as the macro - economic situation where US January existing - home sales were lower than expected, the upstream zinc ore situation with high imports but year - end domestic production cuts, refinery profit contractions, and the downstream market turning to the off - season with weakening demand in some sectors and only partial bright spots in others [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: This week, the main Shanghai zinc contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 1.04% and an amplitude of 2.41%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 24,195 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, US January existing - home sales were 3.91 million, lower than the expected 4.15 million and the previous value of 4.35 million. Fundamentally, upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc ore production decreases at the end of the year. Refinery profits are shrinking, and production is expected to be limited. The export window may close again. Demand - side is turning to the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening. However, there are some policy - supported bright spots in the automotive field. Downstream procurement is mainly on - demand, and domestic social inventories have slightly increased [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Open interest is stable while prices are adjusting, and trading between long and short positions has weakened [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 24,195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton or 1.04% from February 6, 2026. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,381.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 83 US dollars/ton or 2.52% from February 6, 2026 [7]. - **Net Position of Top 20**: As of February 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 9,275 lots, an increase of 2,040 lots from February 6, 2026. The open interest of Shanghai zinc was 178,440 lots, a decrease of 12,112 lots or 6.36% from February 6, 2026 [10]. - **Price Spreads**: As of February 13, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from February 6, 2026. The lead - zinc futures spread was 7,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 445 yuan/ton from February 6, 2026 [16][17]. - **Spot Premium**: As of February 13, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton or 0.77% from February 6, 2026. The spot discount was 25 yuan/ton, the same as last week. As of February 12, 2026, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 28.69 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.94 US dollars/ton from February 5, 2026 [22]. - **Inventory**: As of February 12, 2026, LME refined zinc inventory was 103,500 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons or 3.99% from February 5, 2026. As of February 13, 2026, SHFE refined zinc inventory was 87,025 tons, an increase of 16,336 tons or 23.11% from last week. As of February 12, 2026, domestic refined zinc social inventory was 138,000 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons or 16.46% from February 5, 2026 [25]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In November 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0627 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.11% and a year - on - year increase of 2.39%. In December 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 462,599.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.44% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [31]. - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: In November 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1612 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 56,300 tons or 5.1%. Consumption was 1.1689 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,500 tons or 0.47%. The global refined zinc deficit was 7,700 tons, compared with a deficit of 58,500 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance in November 2025 was 29,000 tons [36][37]. - **Supply - Refined Zinc Production**: In December 2025, zinc production was 675,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 7.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [40]. - **Supply - Refined Zinc Import and Export**: In December 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 8,760.85 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%. The export volume was 27,266.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 524.21% [43]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheet**: From January to December 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 1.0667 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.1%. In December 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 31,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.22%. The export volume was 404,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.95% [46][47]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to December 2025, the new housing construction area was 587.6996 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47%. The housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 9.311716 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.4%. Personal mortgage loans were 1.285196 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [52][53]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2025, infrastructure investment decreased by 1.48% year - on - year [58][59]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In December 2025, refrigerator production was 10.0115 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative refrigerator production was 109.2436 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In December 2025, air - conditioner production was 21.6289 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 266.9749 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% [61]. - **Downstream - Automobile**: In January 2026, China's automobile sales volume was 2.346 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. The automobile production volume was 2.45 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.02% [65].

农业气象周报 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018451 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 联系电话：0595-86778969 目录 1、周度重点气象 2、各农作物产区气象 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.13」 「 周度重点关注气象」 3 u 国内方面，国内多数农作物收获结束。天气利于油菜籽、冬麦作物生长。 u 国际方面，美豆大豆收获结束。南美大豆播种结束，处于生长期，巴西早播大豆开始收获。截至2月7日， 巴西25/26年度大豆灌浆率38.8%，成熟率25.6%，收获率17.4%。未来15天，巴西中西部大豆产区西部 降雨低于常值，东部降雨高于常值；大多数地区气温正常。东部降雨较多影响作物收获。未来15天，阿 根廷大豆产区布宜诺斯艾利斯省降雨低于常值，其他主要产区大多降雨高于常值。圣地亚哥-德尔埃斯 特罗省北部气温高于常值，其他地区气温正常。降雨增加有利于土壤墒情。未来15天欧洲关键产区降雨 高于常值，气温高于常值。印尼和马来西亚降雨较多，降雨高于常值，将影响棕榈果采摘。 u ENSO预测：1月至3月拉尼娜概率69%。2月至4月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot - end negotiation atmosphere becomes lighter, with the inventory of production and trading enterprises increasing. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly declined, and it will be at the lowest point during the Spring Festival holiday [8]. - During the long holiday, attention should be paid to the external macro - situation, geopolitics, and crude oil prices [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Pay attention to the external macro - situation, geopolitics, and crude oil prices during the long holiday [7]. - Market review and outlook: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated weakly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot - end negotiation is light, with inventory rising. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has declined and will be at the lowest point during the holiday [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.99% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided. - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 13th, the 3 - 4 spread of butadiene rubber was - 85 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of February 12th, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 14,580 tons, an increase of 3,470 tons from last week [22]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of February 12th, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Basis: As of February 12th, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of February 12th, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at $612.13/ton, an increase of $9.5/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at $690/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - Butadiene capacity utilization rate and port inventory: As of February 13th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 74.55%, an increase of 1.43% from last week; the port inventory was 36,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week [34]. 3.3.2. Industry - Production and capacity utilization rate: In January 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. As of February 12th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 79.63%, an increase of 0.77% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of February 12th, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 286 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of February 13th, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 33,910 tons, an increase of 780 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,800 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 6,110 tons, an increase of 80 tons from last week [45]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire capacity utilization rate: As of February 12th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [48]. - Tire exports: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire export volume was 8,430,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [51]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - No relevant information provided

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.2.13」 热轧卷板市场周报 市场情绪低迷 热卷期价震荡偏弱 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至2月13日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3222（-29），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3270（-10）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量下调。307.76（-1.4），（同比-21.17）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求下滑。本期表需296.19（-9.35），（同比-26.69）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库+社库增加。总库存370.77（+11.57），（同比-58.88）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率38.53%，环比上周减少0.86个百分点，同比去年减少12.12个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 维持在78%附近；春节假期到来，表观需求继续下滑，库存增幅扩大。同时，成本端支撑减弱。观点参考，HC2605合约考虑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, corn futures fluctuated and rose. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week. The USDA's supply and demand report was slightly positive, boosting the US corn market price. However, there is still potential import pressure in the international market, and there are also factors affecting supply in the domestic market. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [7]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2638 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of corn starch production enterprises has declined, but inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Performance**: This week, the main 2605 contract of corn futures closed at 2320 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA's supply and demand report was favorable, but there is potential import pressure. In the domestic market, the enthusiasm of farmers in the Northeast to sell grain and that of drying towers to purchase are not high. Feed enterprises' pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and deep - processing enterprises are gradually shutting down. There are rumors that the supply of policy grains will increase after the Spring Festival. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market has gradually become inactive. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [7]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2638 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of corn starch production enterprises has decreased, and inventory has increased. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 102.5 tons, up 3.00 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.02%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 5 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and rose, with a total position of 1,212,499 lots, an increase of 350,488 lots compared to last week. The 5 - month contract of corn starch futures also fluctuated and rose, with a total position of 174,854 lots, an increase of 48,601 lots compared to last week [15]. 3.2.2. Net Position Changes of the Top 20 - The net position of the top 20 in corn futures this week was - 212,341, compared with - 120,101 last week, and the net short position increased. The net position of the top 20 in starch futures was - 35,300, compared with - 28,786 last week, and the net short position increased [21]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 88,570, and those of corn starch were 11,611 [27]. 3.2.4. Spot Prices and Basis - As of February 12, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton. The basis between the active 5 - month contract of corn and the average spot price was + 52 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and 2790 yuan/ton in Shandong. The basis between the 5 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 62 yuan/ton [32][36]. 3.2.5. Inter - month Spread Changes - The 5 - 7 spread of corn was - 5 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 5 - 7 spread of starch was + 7 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [42]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread Changes - The spread between the 5 - month contracts of starch and corn was 318 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread Changes - As of February 12, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2530.72 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 158.56 yuan/ton. In the 7th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 572 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 3 yuan/ton compared to last week [55]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - As of February 6, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 43.1 tons, a decrease of 15.10 tons compared to last week; the foreign trade inventory was 8.7 tons, a decrease of 3.50 tons compared to last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 179.2 tons, an increase of 6.0 tons week - on - week. The shipping volume of the four northern ports was 70.6 tons, the same as last week [46]. - As of February 12, the overall progress of domestic farmers selling corn was 65%, a 2% increase compared to February 5, 2026, and a 4% increase year - on - year [57]. - In December 2025, China's corn import volume was 80.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133.12% and a month - on - month increase of 24.52 tons [61]. - As of February 12, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 33.02 days, an increase of 0.43 days compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.66% [65]. - **Demand Side** - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, a 0.5% increase compared to the end of the previous year. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a 2.9% decrease [69]. - As of February 6, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 38.09 yuan/head, and that of purchasing piglets was 91.42 yuan/head [73]. - As of February 12, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 71 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 628 yuan/ton, - 745 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 194 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [77]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of February 11, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 543.8 tons, an increase of 6.07% [81]. - From February 5 to February 11, 2026, the national corn processing volume was 59.74 tons, a decrease of 1.67 tons compared to last week; the national corn starch output was 30.47 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons compared to last week; the weekly operating rate was 55.68%, a decrease of 2.1% compared to last week. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 102.5 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.90% [85]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of February 13, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2605 contract of corn was 11.13%, a 0.56% increase compared to last week's 10.57%. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased this week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the tin price will undergo a wide - range oscillatory adjustment. This conclusion is based on the analysis of macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and technical indicators. The macro - economic situation shows that the US housing market data is not as expected; on the supply side, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, but the production of refined tin is currently limited; on the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive the demand for solder. Technically, the trading volume between long and short positions has decreased [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 2.35% and an amplitude of 12.03%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 365,400 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: In January in the US, the annualized total number of existing home sales was 3.91 million, lower than the expected 4.15 million, and the previous value was 4.35 million. - **Supply - side**: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in the import volume of domestic tin ore, which is expected to continue to rise in the first quarter. Recently, the processing fee for tin ore has increased slightly, indicating a sign of alleviating the tight supply of tin ore. In the smelting sector, most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories, and most are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, the production of refined tin continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for production to increase after the Spring Festival. In terms of imports, the export volume of tin from Indonesia has increased, the import window is gradually opening, and the import pressure is increasing. - **Demand - side**: The development prospect of the AI field is strong, which will drive a significant increase in the demand for solder. Recently, the tin price has rebounded, and due to the suspension of year - end procurement, the inventory has increased, with the spot premium maintained at 2,000 yuan/ton; the LME inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has rebounded. - **Technical - aspect**: The position has remained stable, the price has adjusted, and the trading between long and short positions has become lighter [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 361,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,290 yuan/ton or 1.49% compared to February 6. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of LME tin was 47,800 US dollars/ton, an increase of 810 US dollars/ton or 1.72% compared to February 6 [8][11]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of February 13, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.85, an increase of 0.12 compared to February 6. As of February 11, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.86, an increase of 0.11 compared to February 5 [16]. - **Position Changes**: As of February 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 7,247 lots, a decrease of 548 lots compared to February 9, 2026. As of February 13, 2026, the position of Shanghai tin was 80,108 lots, a decrease of 3,010 lots or 3.62% compared to February 6 [20]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply - side - **Tin Ore Import**: In December 2025, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 17,637.24 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 120.09%. From January to December this year, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 135,757.23 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.35% [26]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [27]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On February 12, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on February 11, 2026; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 14,500 yuan/ton, the same as on February 11, 2026. On February 12, 2026, the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 377,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,950 yuan/ton or 0.79% compared to February 11, 2026; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 381,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,950 yuan/ton or 0.78% compared to February 11, 2026 [32]. - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of February 12, 2026, the import profit and loss of tin was 8,064.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,553.76 yuan/ton compared to February 6, 2026. In December 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 15.4775 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25%. From January to December, the cumulative import of refined tin was 23,189 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.04%. In December 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 27.6307 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.81% and a year - on - year increase of 32.57%. From January to December, the cumulative export of refined tin was 23,437.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.75% [35][36]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of February 12, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 7,490 tons, an increase of 360 tons or 5.05% compared to February 5. As of February 13, 2026, the total tin inventory was 11,014 tons, an increase of 2,264 tons or 25.87% compared to last week. As of February 13, 2026, the tin futures inventory was 10,353 tons, an increase of 3,637 tons or 54.15% compared to February 6 [41]. 3.3.2. Demand - side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On February 12, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 8,084.7, an increase of 470.06 or 6.17% compared to February 5. From January to December 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 484,279,481,000 pieces, an increase of 32,856,516,000 pieces or 7.28% compared to the same period last year [44]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of December 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% compared to November 2025. As of December 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 142,904.25 tons, a decrease of 4,471.33 tons or 3.03% compared to November [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market prices were volatile at high levels. Imported rubber prices rose, while domestic spot prices also increased. However, demand showed no significant improvement, and actual orders were average [10]. - Currently, domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas production is transitioning from peak to the reduction period, resulting in a decrease in overall supply. Qingdao port inventories are accumulating, and this trend is expected to continue during the Spring Festival as downstream enterprises complete their stocking and gradually enter the holiday period [10]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined significantly this week, and it will reach an annual low during the Spring Festival holiday next week [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Pay attention to overseas macro - situations, geopolitical issues, and overseas production area conditions during the long holiday [9]. - Market review: Imported rubber market prices rose, and domestic spot prices increased due to external macro - sentiment and higher futures prices. However, demand remained weak [10]. - Market outlook: Supply is decreasing, port inventories are accumulating, and tire enterprise capacity utilization will be low during the Spring Festival [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - Price trends: The main contract price of Shanghai Rubber futures rose 1.46% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose 1% week - on - week [13]. - Position analysis: Not detailed in the summary part, only mentioned the top 20 position changes of Shanghai Rubber and 20 - rubber [16][18]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 13, the spread between Shanghai Rubber's May and September contracts was 120, and the spread between 20 - rubber's March and April contracts was - 60 [25]. - Warehouse receipts: As of February 12, Shanghai Rubber warehouse receipts were 112,570 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 50,803 tons, a decrease of 201 tons from last week [29]. - **Spot Market** - Domestic natural rubber: As of February 12, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - 20 - rubber basis and non - standard basis: As of February 12, the 20 - rubber basis was 365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from last week [39]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - Thailand: As of February 13, the price of field latex in Thailand was 62.3 (+3) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 55 (+1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week [42]. - Domestic: Yunnan and Hainan producing areas are in the off - season [45]. - **Import Volume** - In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [51]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons, or 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78% [54]. - **Downstream** - Tire capacity utilization: As of February 12, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [57]. - Tire export: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 8,430,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [60]. - Domestic demand: In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year [63]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content.

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.13」 碳酸锂市场周报 长假将至供需双减，锂价或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡走强，涨跌幅为14.84%，振幅15.06%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价152640元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，1月份，我国CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，核心CPI同比上 涨0.8%；PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，同比则下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5 个百分点。基本面原料端，锂矿价格随锂价区间波动，矿商出货意愿较强，但冶炼厂由于备货较为充足，态度偏谨慎 观望。供给端，上游冶炼厂因春节长假来临而生产产能有所减弱，加之物流停运，国内供给量逐步收减。需求端，由 于假期放假原因，加之前期锂价回落时节前采买备货基本已完成，现货市场成交较为零星，逐步清淡。整体来看，碳 酸锂基本面或将处于供需双减的局面，产业库存逐步下降 ...