| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2317 | -44 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 165100 | 31060 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -30729 | -16452 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 362389 | 60520 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2317 | -44 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2480 | -3 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -30729 | -16452 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 800 | 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 950 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2500 | 0 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 183 | 44 | | 上游情况 | 原盐:山东:主流价(日,元/吨) | 210 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - New season global sugar surplus estimates mostly increased, Thailand and India's sugar production recovery has a key impact on the supply side, with India expected to resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, initially estimated at 2 million tons [2] - In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production in the 2025/26 season, with a total production expected to be around 1.4 million tons, and short - term northern beet sugar supply will gradually increase [2] - China's sugar imports in September 2025 were 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; from January to September 2025, cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% [2] - Thailand's syrup and pre - mixed sugar powder production enterprises are mostly in a "suspended import" state, and it is expected that syrup imports will be restricted again, which is positive for the domestic market, and there is support below the short - term sugar price [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 379,832 lots, a decrease of 11,203 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,541, a decrease of 84; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 56,862 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 586, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,049 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Nanning was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons [2] 产业情况 - The national sugar sales rate was 89.98%, an increase of 1%; the monthly sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons; the total Brazilian sugar export volume was 3.2458 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) was 1,571 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) was 509 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) was 432 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton [2] 下游情况 - The monthly output of refined sugar was 539,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.5917 million tons, a decrease of 184,100 tons [2] 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 6.42%, a decrease of 1.43%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 6.43%, a decrease of 1.42%; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.05%, an increase of 0.37%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.28%, an increase of 0.17% [2] 行业消息 - Rabobank reported that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to be 39.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season and 39.5 - 42.1 million tons in the 2026/27 season [2] - ICE raw sugar futures closed higher on Wednesday, hitting a nearly five - year low during the session. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.05 cents, or 0.30%, to settle at 14.42 cents per pound. The new season's global sugar surplus estimates are mostly raised [2]

置陆续重启，PVC原料成本有上涨预期。PVC供需驱动仍偏弱，但成本端偏强使估值下限上移。短期V2601 预计偏强震荡，技术上关注4900附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 PVC产业日报 2025-10-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4766 | -9 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1045974 | 205951 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1161917 | -42460 期货前20名持 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View The egg price is at a low level, and the breeding side has a certain sentiment of supporting the price. Coupled with the decrease in temperature, which is conducive to the storage and transportation of eggs, the shipping speed in low - price areas has accelerated, supporting the rebound of the spot price. Driven by the rising spot price, the near - month contracts have also strengthened significantly. However, the in - production inventory of laying hens remains high, and old hens have not been over - culled. High production capacity is still the main concern in the market, which may limit the upside space. Recently, the egg futures price has shown a low - level rebound trend, but the high - production capacity pressure still exists, which may limit its rebound space, so it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3157 yuan/500 kilograms, down 8 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 12304 hands, an increase of 1976 hands; the egg futures monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 104 yuan/500 kilograms, up 5 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active egg contract is 201570 hands, down 15569 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 38 hands, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 2.92 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis (spot - futures) is - 236 yuan/500 kilograms, up 8 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 115.26 (with 2015 = 100), up 0.86; the national culled laying hen index is 124.63 (with 2015 = 100), up 31.02; the average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main producing areas is 2.65 yuan/feather, up 0.05 yuan; the national new - born chick index is 76.65 (with 2015 = 100), up 3.3; the average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan; the breeding profit of egg - laying chickens is - 0.45 yuan/head, up 0.01 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 8.58 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan; the national culling age of chickens is 507 days, down 3 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.96 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.69 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.55 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, unchanged; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.04 days, down 0.01 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13215.79 tons, up 94.76 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7498 tons, an increase of 118 tons [2]. Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong, the main producing area, is 5.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Hebei is 5.69 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Guangdong is 6.73 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average egg price in Beijing is 6.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2].

近来菜油价格维持偏弱调整，短期观望。 菜籽系产业日报 2025-10-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9529 | 4 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2401 | 28 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) | 319 | -30 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) | 66 | 23 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 226014 | -7051 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 350537 | -1311 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 4403 | 921 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -101718 | 11227 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 7540 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 3915 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 640.6 | 3.4 ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-10-30 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2208 | -49 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -76 | -12 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1320963 | 123548 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -253892 | -33714 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 11997 | -125 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2170 | -35 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2020 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 150 | -35 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -38 | 14 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 258 | 1 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 324 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 267 | 0 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, industrial silicon prices are expected to decline with a small range. Southwest regions will see production cuts while northwest regions increase production. Demand from polysilicon is uncertain, while demand from silicone and aluminum alloy is relatively stable. Cost provides support for prices, but high inventory restricts upward price movement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,155 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the position of the main contract was 227,764 lots, up 7,102 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 57,526 lots, down 3,468 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 47,410 lots, up 72 lots; the closing price of the December contract was - 395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between November - December contracts was - 395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 295 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) were 410 yuan/ton, 2,110 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Industrial silicon monthly production was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; monthly imports were 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; monthly exports were 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly production of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,100 yuan/ton; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 70.05%, up 0.69 percentage points; the monthly production of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and photovoltaic power generation capacity exceeded thermal power for the first time, indicating that the energy revolution has entered a deeper stage. In the industrial silicon market, in Sichuan and Yunnan, production costs are rising as they transition from the wet season to the dry season in October, and some enterprises have stopped production. In Xinjiang, production is increasing due to stable and low - cost power supply [2] Demand Analysis - In the silicone segment, inventory is lower than the historical average, production profit has slightly recovered but is still in the loss range, and there is some rigid - demand procurement support. In the polysilicon segment, inventory is as high as 278,300 tons, higher than the historical average, and there is a risk of weakening demand support. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate is stable, demand is high, but the marginal impact on prices is limited [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polysilicon Industry Daily Report 2025 - 10 - 30 [2] - Researcher: Huang Wenjie [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03142112 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021738 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - In November - December, the inventory accumulation speed of polysilicon is expected to slow down, but the industry inventory at the end of 2025 will still likely exceed 400,000 tons. The downstream photovoltaic industry chain has weak demand, with component tender prices continuously falling, causing delays in centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the industry's overall gross profit margin is narrowing. Internationally, the high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand, and while the loosening of US tariff policies drives the growth of energy storage system exports, it cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, the emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline on the demand side to some extent. The market rumor of the relevant authorities' potential policy on strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation boosts market confidence, and it is recommended to lay out long positions after the price decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 54,950 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 126,052 lots, up 7,622 lots. The basis of polysilicon from December to January is 70, up 20; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,795 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,350 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan/ton; the basis of polysilicon is - 2,640 yuan/ton, down 1,265 yuan/ton. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.36 yuan/piece, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars/kg [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 9,155 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,350 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts. The average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/W, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars/piece [3]. 3.6 Industry News - This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The activity in the domestic polysilicon market is low this week, with a light overall trading atmosphere. The number of mainstream signing enterprises has decreased to 3 - 4, and the order scale has decreased compared with the previous week. Currently, there are 11 domestic polysilicon enterprises in production. In October, the domestic polysilicon output was about 137,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%, 5.4% higher than expected, mainly because some enterprises slightly increased the operating rate within the limited production capacity in the fourth quarter to spread costs. The downstream operating rate remains relatively stable. As the dry season approaches in the southwest region in November, the production cost of polysilicon enterprises will increase, and some enterprises have started to reduce raw material input, such as partial bases in Sichuan and Yunnan, which have gradually reduced production recently. The demand side is relatively weak, and the demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain is sluggish [3].

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/10/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,842.00 | -10.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,550.00 | -44.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 513,200.00 | -6382.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 332,067.00 | +361.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -65,778.00 | +1556.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -41,551.00 | -8823.00↓ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 48.00 | +10.00↑ | SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 98.00 | +10.00↑ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 8,100.00 | +8100.00↑ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 2,624.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although some primary lead smelters plan to boost annual production and sales, there are many maintenance activities from October to November, so primary lead production is expected to increase slightly. For recycled lead, smelters affected by Document 770 are gradually resuming production, but raw material inventory levels are low, and waste transportation is affected by environmental protection requirements in the north, so the increase in recycled lead production is limited, and lead ingot spot will remain tight in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices. After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has significantly rebounded, and the traditional consumption season, along with the replacement market of cars and electric bicycles, supports lead demand. Some leading battery companies have good orders and are expanding energy - storage business, which will further increase lead demand. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually widened, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will suppress demand growth to some extent. Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and the possible increase in recycled lead production, inventory may change next week. If the inventory depletion rate slows, it will resist price increases. It is recommended to short at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,350 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,019 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars. The spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 119,775 lots, down 2,688 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 496 lots, up 1,470 lots. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 21,645 tons, down 1,352 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory is 224,875 tons, down 4,800 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.12 dollars/ton, up 0.42 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead ore production is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 9,967.86 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly automobile production is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - On October 30, a large recycled lead smelter in East China started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and plans to start formal production this weekend. According to SMM analysis, after resuming production, it is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons to the recycled refined lead production in November, which will have a positive impact on market supply. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [3]