瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 鸡蛋市场周报 市场情绪仍然悲观 鸡蛋近月再度下探 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收跌，2603合约收盘价为3024元/500千克，较前一周-56元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：养殖端持续亏损使得补栏积极性下滑且老鸡淘汰量有所增加，蛋鸡存栏小幅回落，市 场氛围略有好转。且现货价格持续偏低，养殖端仍处于亏损状态，市场补栏积极性欠佳，利好远 期价格。不过，当前蛋鸡在产存栏仍然处于高位，老鸡尚未出现超淘，高产能仍然牵制近月市场 价格表现。总体而言，市场博弈于弱现实与强预期之间。短期近月合约或处于宽幅震荡状态,可轻 仓试多远月。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 来源：大商所 wind 来源：大商所 瑞达期货研究院 ...

关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 硅锰市场周报 成本支撑底部震荡，供需偏弱库存高位 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 1. 宏观方面，中指院预计，2026年全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降6.2%，降幅较今年有所收窄；预计2026年新开工面积下降 8.6%；预计房地产投资同比下降11%。根据几大煤炭主产区十五五规划建议，稳产稳供，做好产能接续，加强煤炭清洁高效利 用几个特点是政策核心方向。 2. 海外方面，美联储12月9日和10日举行议息会议，会议降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。全球大 多数投资银行预测，美联储将在2026年的两次降息中累计降息50个基点，且降息时间预计主要在上半年完成。 3. 供需方面，基本面来看，库存回升较快，产量高位延续小幅回落，库存连续11周回升，成本端，原料端进口锰矿石港口库存 +13万吨，需求端铁水总体季节性回落。利润方面 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 玉米类市场周报 政策性拍卖发酵 玉米期价高位回落 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货高位回落。主力2601合约收盘价为2233元/吨，较上周-34元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美玉米收割步入出口旺季，阶段性供应压力较高。且全球及美玉米供需仍然相对宽松， 压制国际玉米市场价格。不过，USDA将2025/26年度美玉米结转库存预测值从上月的21.54亿蒲 式耳下调至20.29亿蒲式耳，低于分析师预期的21.24亿蒲式耳，对美玉米价格有所支撑。国内方 面，东北产区进入12月储备库的收购力度加大，收储库点持续增多，轮换玉米的采购量也在增加， 部分粮库提高收购价，对市场底部构成支撑。不过，阶段性高价限制了用粮企业采购积极性，加 之受小麦及储备玉米调节储备投放传闻影响，种植户与贸易主体恐高心理陆续显现，开始释放粮 源，随市场供给增加价格出现高位回 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 沪铜市场周报 供给小增需求谨慎，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡偏强，周线涨跌幅为+1.4%，振幅4.16%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价94080元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储12月议息：宣布在未来30天内购买400亿美元短债，在3张异见票中降息25个基点，声明措 辞新增"将考虑进一步调整利率的幅度和时机"，点阵图中值维持对明后两年各降息1次的预期。鲍威尔称可以等待并观 察经济如何发展，没人预期会加息，利率处于中性水平区间的上端，购债规模将在未来数月保持在高位。国内方面，统计 局：11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，环比下降0.1%；PPI同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。基本面原料端，铜精矿现货加工费指 数保持负值低位运行，矿紧预期将在较长的时期持续奏效于铜冶炼端，提供成本支撑。供给方面，冶炼副产品硫酸价格表 现仍较优，弥补冶 ...

目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.12.12」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2605合约短线预计在2070-2170区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场区间震荡，其中江苏价格波动区间在2060-2120元/吨，广东价格波 动在2040-2100元/吨。内地甲醇价格弱势下滑，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1980-2007 元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2200-2223元/吨。港口低价货源持续流入并对内地市场形成 显著冲击。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量少于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量增加。 本周内地企业库存小幅下降，但雨雪天气导致物流匹配及运费调整，叠加当前主产区供应充裕且 部分大甲醇进一步提负中，短期国内甲醇生产企业总库存或有累积。港口方面，本周华东地区几 无国产船只抵港，倒流内地强势支撑沿江主流库区提货，华南地区进口及内贸船只均有卸货但主 流库 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 白糖市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑糖2601合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约0.36%。 行情展望：巴西航运机构Williams发布的数据显示，截至12月10日当周巴西港口等 待装运食糖的船只数量为44艘，此前一周为53艘。港口等待装运的食糖数量为 151.31万吨，此前一周182.6万吨下降17.14%。当周等待装运出口的食糖船只数量 减少。国内市场，目前加工糖、甜菜糖报价相对稳定，广西新糖陆续到达销区，市 场成交不佳的情况下，三种糖源竞争市场，对价格产生不利影响。截至目前不完全 统计，25/26榨季广西已开榨糖厂66家，同比减少5家；日榨甘蔗产能53.75万吨， 同比减少2.9万吨，下周预计将有4家糖厂开榨。云南开榨糖厂已达26家，同比增加 9家，糖厂开榨数量过半。总体上，新榨季压榨渐入高峰，供应持续增加，现货价 格走弱，缺乏利多驱动，预计后市糖价低位震荡运行为主。 未来关 ...

Report Title - "2025.12.12 Weekly Report on Shanghai Tin Market: Macroeconomic Improvement Boosts Sentiment, Anticipating Strong Adjustment in Tin Prices" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai tin market is expected to undergo a short - term strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance at the 345,000 level [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main Shanghai tin contract continued to rise significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.88% and an amplitude of 8.76%. The closing price of the main contract was 333,000 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, resolve local government debt risks, and boost consumption [5] - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline [5] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers show purchasing interest when tin prices decline, but rising prices suppress transactions. Inventory has increased slightly [5] - **Technical - level**: There is a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, and the market sentiment is bullish [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 332,720 yuan/ton, up 4.98% from December 5. As of December 11, the closing price of LME tin was 41,880 US dollars/ton, up 3.31% from December 5. The basis of Shanghai tin was 0 yuan/ton, down from 150 yuan/ton last week [10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.86, an increase of 0.16 from December 5. As of December 11, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.61, a decrease of 0.17 from December 4 [14] - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1960 lots, an increase of 2168 lots from December 8. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 118,433 lots, an increase of 10,033 lots or 9.26% from December 5 [19] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 103,020.65 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. The refined tin production in October was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Processing Fees**: On December 12, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, and that for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from December 11 [31] - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 11, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 2,471.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,186.86 yuan/ton from December 5. In October, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75% [34][35] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,695 tons, an increase of 520 tons or 16.38% from December 4. As of December 12, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 7,391 tons, an increase of 526 tons or 7.66% from last week [43] - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On December 11, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,411.48, an increase of 2.71% from December 4 [46] - **Integrated Circuit Output**: From January to October 2025, the integrated circuit output was 386.6 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [47] - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. The export volume was 222,589.82 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.63% [50]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 沪锌市场周报 宏观改善炼厂减产 预计锌价强势调整 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锌主力大幅上涨，周线涨跌幅为+1.29%，振幅3.48%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价23605 元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等 多种政策工具，着力稳定房地产市场，积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，深入实施提振消费专项行动，清 理消费领域不合理限制措施。基本面，上游锌矿进口量下滑，因内外比价继续走差，中国进口锌精矿亏损 扩大；国内炼厂原料冬季储备已经启动，更倾向采购国产锌精矿，不过炼厂采购国产矿竞争加大，国内外 加工费均明显下跌，国内炼厂利润收缩，预计产量将明显下降。同时海外供应紧张局面持续，近期沪伦比 值维持低位，国内进口亏损，且出口窗口保持打开，预计未来将转为净出口局面，缓解国内供应压力。需 ...

目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 国债期货周报 宽货币预期升温，超长债仍待企稳 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、工信息部办、中国人民银行发布《关于用好绿色金融政策支持绿色工厂建设的通知》。其中提到，拓宽直接融资渠道。支持 符合条件的企业发行绿色债券和转型债券，募集资金加大绿色工厂建设投入，鼓励金融机构做好绿色债券发行承销和投资等配套服务；2、中 央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准 降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域；3、 商务部将出台加快零售业创新发展的意见，通过统筹规划、合理布局，提升商品和服务质量，协同优化存量和增量，推动线上线下公平竞争 等，实现新供给、新需求的良性互动。 基本面：1、国内:1）11月份我国制造业PMI为49.2%，比上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,300 - 11,000 yuan in the short - term [8]. - The rising transaction center of butadiene in the spot market provides some support for the price of butadiene rubber. With the influence of external news such as the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and the US interest rate cut in the natural rubber market, the low - price offer center of the butadiene market has slowly moved up [9]. - Most previously shut - down butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Although the inventory of some previously shut - down production enterprises has decreased significantly, most production enterprises still face high shipment pressure. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises has increased slightly. In the short term, the inventory of both production and trading enterprises is expected to increase slightly [9]. - The resumption of production by previously shut - down tire enterprises has led to a week - on - week increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises. However, as the industry enters the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous increase in finished product inventory, some enterprises may shut down or reduce production in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,300 - 11,000 yuan in the short - term [8]. - Market review: The rising transaction center of butadiene in the spot market supports the price of butadiene rubber. With external news, the low - price offer center of the butadiene market has moved up. The price of butadiene rubber in Shandong market has slightly increased, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,750 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [9]. - Market outlook: Production capacity has recovered, production enterprise inventory has decreased slightly, trading enterprise inventory has increased slightly, and both are expected to increase slightly in the short term. The demand side has a week - on - week increase in capacity utilization rate, but the increase is limited, and some enterprises may shut down or reduce production in the future [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of synthetic rubber futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.73% [13]. - Position analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of December 12, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [20]. - Warehouse receipts: As of December 12, the warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber were 4,560 tons, an increase of 1,220 tons from last week [23]. Spot Market - Spot price: As of December 11, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in Shandong market was 10,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Basis: As of December 11, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3 Industry Situation Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of December 11, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 554.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.5 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 745 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [31]. - Butadiene capacity utilization rate and port inventory: As of December 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.17%, an increase of 0.77% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons from last week [34]. Industry - Production and capacity utilization rate: In November 2025, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month. As of December 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 70.69%, a decrease of 2.84% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of December 11, the domestic production profit of butadiene rubber was 349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of December 12, the domestic social inventory of butadiene rubber was 31,950 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from last week. The manufacturer inventory was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 5,450 tons, an increase of 220 tons from last week [44]. Downstream - Tire capacity utilization rate: As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [47]. - Tire export volume: In October 2025, China's tire export volume was 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%. The cumulative export volume from January to October was 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%. The cumulative export volume from January to October was 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [50]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No relevant information provided.