Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates the upcoming policy report on September 17 may include measures such as easing new capital investor entry plans, adjusting residential property stamp duties, and establishing home purchase funding plans, but expresses skepticism about the simultaneous implementation of all measures [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The real estate market in Hong Kong shows signs of stabilization, but if the policies announced are weaker than expected, there may be short-term profit-taking in real estate stocks following the policy report [1] - Historically, if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts align with market expectations, Hong Kong real estate stocks tend to underperform the broader market [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook for the local real estate sector over the next year, suggesting investors take advantage of lower prices [1] - Among developers, the company is particularly optimistic about Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - For rental stocks, it recommends Swire Properties (01792) and Link Real Estate Investment Trust (00823) for investors with lower risk tolerance, while also noting that Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) have significant upside potential [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the upcoming policy report on September 17 may introduce measures to ease capital investor entry, stamp duty on residential properties, and establish a home purchase fund plan, but there are doubts about the extent of these measures [1] - Morgan Stanley expresses skepticism about whether all measures will be introduced at once, noting that the property market shows signs of stabilization, and if the policies are weaker than expected, there may be short-term profit-taking in real estate stocks after the report is released [1] - The day after the policy report, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and historically, if a rate cut meets expectations, Hong Kong real estate stocks tend to underperform the market [1] Group 2 - Despite the short-term concerns, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the local real estate sector for the next year, suggesting investors take advantage of lower prices [1] - Among developers, Morgan Stanley is more optimistic about Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - For rental stocks, it recommends Swire Properties (01792) and Link Real Estate Investment Trust (00823) for investors with lower risk appetite, while also noting that Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) have significant upside potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Hang Lung Properties (00101) will outperform the market in the next 60 days, with an estimated probability of over 80% due to improvements in China's luxury retail sales driven by rising stock markets, improved market sentiment, increased attention on local brands, and a rise in inbound tourism [1] Company Summary - Hang Lung Properties has an attractive price-to-book ratio of 0.3 times and a dividend yield of 6.5% [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of HKD 9 for Hang Lung Properties and has rated it as "Buy" [1] Industry Summary - There is a noted improvement in China's luxury retail sales, which is a positive indicator for companies in the sector [1] - Factors contributing to this improvement include a rising stock market, enhanced market sentiment, increased focus on domestic brands, and a boost in inbound tourism [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Hang Lung Properties (00101) will outperform the market in the next 60 days, with an estimated probability of over 80% due to improvements in China's luxury retail sales driven by rising stock markets, improved market sentiment, increased attention on local brands, and a rise in inbound tourism [1] Company Summary - Hang Lung Properties has an attractive price-to-book ratio of 0.3 times and a dividend yield of 6.5% [1] - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 9 for Hang Lung Properties and rates it as "Buy" [1]

摩根士丹利发表技术意见报告指出，相信恒隆地产股价未来60日内将跑赢大市，估计发生概率80%以 上，因为观察到中国奢侈品零售销售呈现改善趋势，受到股市上涨、市场情绪改善、本土品牌获得关注 以及入境旅游增加的推动。大摩认为，恒隆地产市账率0.3倍及股息收益6.5%的率具有吸引力，予其目 标价9港元，评级"买入"。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of Sun Hung Kai Properties (00101) to "Overweight" and raised the target price from HKD 6.5 to HKD 9 [1] - In the short term, the sales of tenants in the mainland shopping malls improved in July and August, compared to a 4% year-on-year decline in the first half of the year [1] - Shanghai Plaza 66's sales turned from a 4% decline in Q2 to flat [1] Group 2 - Long-term growth is expected to benefit from the recovery in consumer demand driven by inbound tourism and tax refund policies [1] - The pre-leasing rate of the retail portion of Westlake 66 in Hangzhou has reached 81%, with an expected opening in 2026 [1] - The company is leasing an additional 452,000 square feet of space to expand the street-facing area of the mall [1] Group 3 - Potential residential unit sales could generate over HKD 10 billion in revenue, reducing the debt ratio by more than 5 percentage points [1] - The current dividend yield of the company is 6.5%, which is higher than its peers [1] - It is anticipated that share dilution from scrip dividends may cease after the full-year results announcement in 2025 [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of Hang Lung Properties (00101) to "Overweight" and raised the target price from HKD 6.5 to HKD 9 [1] - In the short term, the sales of tenants in the mainland shopping malls improved in July and August, compared to a 4% year-on-year decline in the first half of the year [1] - Shanghai Plaza 66's sales turned from a 4% decline in Q2 to flat [1] Group 2 - Long-term growth is expected to benefit from the recovery in consumer demand driven by inbound tourism and tax refund policies [1] - The pre-leasing rate of the retail portion of Westlake 66 in Hangzhou has reached 81%, with an expected opening in 2026 [1] - The company is leasing an additional 452,000 square feet of space to expand the street-facing area of the mall [1] Group 3 - Potential residential unit sales could generate over HKD 10 billion in revenue, reducing the debt ratio by more than 5 percentage points [1] - The current dividend yield of the company is 6.5%, which is higher than its peers [1] - It is anticipated that share dilution from scrip dividends may cease after the full-year results announcement in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for Hang Lung Properties from HKD 6.5 to HKD 9, upgrading the rating to "Overweight" [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Performance - Tenant sales in Hang Lung's mainland shopping malls improved in July and August, with sales at Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza stabilizing after a decline [1] - Potential residential sales could generate over HKD 10 billion in revenue, which would help reduce the company's debt ratio [1] Future Prospects - Long-term benefits are expected from the growth in inbound tourism and tax rebate policies [1] - The retail portion of the new project, Hang Lung Plaza in Hangzhou, has achieved a pre-leasing rate of 81%, with an expected opening in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for Hang Lung Properties from HKD 6.5 to HKD 9, upgrading the rating to "Overweight" [1] - Tenant sales in mainland China improved in July and August, compared to a 4% year-on-year decline in the first half of the year [1] - Sales at Plaza 66 in Shanghai stabilized, recovering from a 4% drop in the second quarter [1] Group 2 - The long-term outlook is positive due to expected growth in inbound tourism and a rebound in consumer demand driven by tax refund policies [1] - The pre-leasing rate for the retail portion of Westlake 66 in Hangzhou has reached 81%, with an expected opening in 2026 [1] - The company is leasing an additional 452,000 square feet of space to expand the street-facing area of the mall [1] Group 3 - Potential residential unit sales could generate over HKD 10 billion in revenue, reducing the debt ratio by more than 5 percentage points [1] - The current dividend yield stands at 6.5%, which is higher than peers [1] - The dilution of shares from scrip dividends is expected to cease after the full-year results announcement in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the performance of key commercial operators in the retail sector has shown differentiation in the first half of 2025, with expectations for leading companies to strengthen their competitive advantages in the medium to long term due to location, customer loyalty, and operational capabilities [1][5]. Group 1: Performance Overview - Key commercial operators reported their 1H25 performance, with China Resources Vientiane Life's core net profit increasing by 15%, while major Hong Kong developers saw a core net profit decline of 4-9%, aligning with market expectations [1]. - High-end commercial operators experienced an average same-store sales growth of 2.2% in 1H25, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024, while mass-market operators saw a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points to 7.6% [2]. Group 2: Rental and Operational Efficiency - Rental income for major operators in mainland China showed resilience, with average rental growth of 0.5% in both 2024 and 1H25, which is significantly better than retail sales performance [3]. - Heavy asset operators reported a gross profit margin increase of 0.3 percentage points to 73.9%, indicating ongoing operational efficiency improvements [4]. Group 3: Future Trends - The industry is expected to benefit from a "Matthew Effect," with leading commercial operators likely to solidify their competitive barriers in the medium to long term [5]. - The second half of the year is anticipated to have positive catalysts, including low base effects from last year's retail sales and continued supportive consumption policies [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends China Resources Vientiane Life and Swire Properties for their dual returns of growth and dividends, while suggesting to accumulate Hongkong Land at lower prices to capitalize on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window [6].