2025 2025 2 0 2 5 目錄 | 2 | 公司資料 | | --- | --- | | 3 | 董事長致股東函 | | 7 | 財務摘要 | | 8 | 業務回顧 | | 30 | 其他資料 | | 40 | 獨立核數師審閱報告 | | 42 | 財務報表 | | 67 | 詞彙 | | 68 | 投資者參考資料 | 公司資料 榮譽董事長 陳啟宗 大紫荊勳賢 董事 陳文博 （董事長） 盧韋柏 （行政總裁） 袁偉良* 陳南祿* 陳嘉正 銅紫荊星章、太平紳士 * 馮婉眉 銅紫荊星章、太平紳士 * 李天芳* 趙家駒 （首席財務總監） 授權代表 盧韋柏 馬婉華 公司秘書 馬婉華 註冊辦事處 香港中環德輔道中4號28樓 電話：2879 0111 傳真：2868 6086 網址：http://www.hanglung.com 電郵：HLProperties@hanglung.com 核數師 畢馬威會計師事務所 於《會計及財務匯報局條例》下的註冊公眾利益實體核數師 * 獨立非執行董事 審核委員會 馮婉眉 銅紫荊星章、太平紳士（主席） 陳南祿 陳嘉正 銅紫荊星章、太平紳士 提名及薪酬委員會 袁偉良 （主席） 陳嘉 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating and profit forecast for Hang Lung Properties (00101), raising the target price by 6% to HKD 9.46 per share, reflecting a 15x target core P/E for 2025 and a 5.5% target dividend yield, with an 8% upside potential [1] Group 1: Expansion and Development - The company is actively expanding its leasable area, with the third phase of Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza expected to open in Q3 2026, adding approximately 3,000 square meters to the current 32,000 square meters of leasable area [2] - The opening of the third phase is anticipated to enhance the project’s leasable area, accommodate more flagship stores, and improve customer experience through better space utilization [2] Group 2: Brand Adjustment and Performance - The company expects to see results from brand adjustments within this year, with a new three-story flagship store for Chanel anticipated to open in Q4, potentially contributing significantly to retail sales [3] - New brands such as Rolex have already opened this year, and the company is also introducing experiential brands like DJI and Hasselblad to enhance brand diversity [3] Group 3: Operational Performance Outlook - The retail performance of Hang Lung Properties' mainland shopping centers showed improvement in the first half of 2025, with Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza experiencing a quarterly improvement trend [4] - The company expects the operational performance to continue improving in the second half of the year, supported by a lower comparative base from last year and various marketing activities planned [4] - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza is crucial for the company's overall performance, contributing approximately 16% to total rental income in the first half of 2025, providing support for annual performance and dividend payout [4]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating and profit forecast for Hang Lung Properties (00101), raising the target price by 6% to HKD 9.46 per share, corresponding to a 15x 2025 target core P/E and a 5.5% target dividend yield, indicating an 8% upside potential [1] Group 1: Expansion and Development - The company is actively expanding its leasable area, with the third phase of Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza expected to open in Q3 2026, adding approximately 3,000 square meters to the current 32,000 square meters of leasable area [2] - The opening of the third phase is anticipated to enhance the project’s leasable area, accommodate more flagship stores, and improve customer experience through better space utilization [2] Group 2: Brand Adjustment and Performance - The company expects to see results from brand adjustments within this year, with Chanel's new three-story flagship store likely to open in Q4, potentially contributing significantly to retail sales [3] - New brands such as Rolex have already opened this year, and the company is also introducing experiential brands like DJI and Hasselblad to enhance brand diversity [3] Group 3: Operational Performance Outlook - The retail sales of Hang Lung Properties' mainland shopping centers showed a trend of improvement, with Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza's sales improving quarter by quarter [4] - The company anticipates that the operational performance in the second half of the year will continue to improve, supported by a lower comparative base from last year and various marketing activities planned [4] - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza is expected to contribute approximately 16% to the company's total rental income in the first half of 2025, providing support for the company's overall performance and dividend payout [4]

"我们认为内地消费市场是个很好的市场，我们也继续在投资，加大我们的面积。" 9月22日，在恒隆地产65周年活动上，公司董事长陈文博在谈及对市场的看法时表示，对内地零售市场 有信心，从跟租户的交流来看，租户对市场态度有所保留，但看到增长的数字，租户的态度出现了积极 的转变。"我们认为内地消费市场是个很好的市场，我们也继续在投资，加大我们的面积。" ...

Group 1 - UBS reports that following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's adjustment of the overnight discount rate, Hong Kong banks have lowered the prime rate by 12.5 basis points to 5.125%, aligning with market expectations [1] - After the adjustment, the new mortgage rate for newly built residential properties will decrease from 3.5% to 3.375% [1] - UBS maintains that Hong Kong property prices will remain stable in 2025, with a potential moderate recovery of 0% to 5% in 2026 after inventory digestion [1] Group 2 - Among developers, UBS favors the performance of Sino Land, Henderson Land, and Kerry Properties over New World Development due to the latter's unattractive dividend yield [1] - UBS also prefers Hang Lung Properties, as the decline in HIBOR will reduce its interest expenses [1] - UBS has raised the target price for Sino Land by 14% to HKD 11.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting a narrowing of the net asset value discount from 40% to 35%, supported by strong sales at Victoria Harbour and The Pacific Place, and a potential reduction in scrip dividend arrangements [1]

Group 1 - The recent government policy report did not introduce significant surprises for the real estate market, as measures like stamp duty exemptions and the "Home Purchase Scheme" were not implemented, which is not expected to cause downward pressure [1] - The only slightly positive easing measure is the relaxation of the new "Capital Investor Scheme," allowing residential units valued over HKD 30 million to qualify, which aligns with expectations [1] - Following the policy report, Hong Kong real estate stocks reacted mildly, with the sector underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2% on September 17 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of strong easing policies in the report, the company believes the real estate market may stabilize in the second half of 2025, with property prices expected to rise by 3-5% in 2026 [1] - Preferred developers include Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - Among property owners, the most favored are Swire Properties (01972) and Hang Lung Properties (00101), followed by Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Link REIT (00823) [1]

Group 1 - The recent policy report from the government does not present significant surprises for the real estate market, as measures like stamp duty exemptions and the "Home Purchase Scheme" have not been implemented, which is not expected to cause downward pressure [1] - The only slightly positive easing measure is the relaxation of the new "Capital Investor Scheme," allowing residential units valued over HKD 30 million to qualify, which aligns with expectations [1] - Following the policy report, Hong Kong real estate stocks reacted mildly, with the sector underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 2% on September 17 [1] Group 2 - Despite the lack of strong easing policies in the report, the company believes the real estate market may stabilize in the second half of 2025, with property prices expected to rise by 3-5% in 2026 [1] - Preferred developers include Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083), while the most favored landlords are Swire Properties (01972) and Hang Lung Properties (00101), followed by Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) and Link REIT (00823) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that the Hong Kong government's Chief Executive, John Lee, has presented his fourth Policy Address, highlighting the optimization of capital investment plans and predicting that the super luxury property market will continue to outperform [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The report states that transactions for properties priced between HKD 30 million and HKD 50 million accounted for approximately 1.2% of total transactions in the first half of the year, with a transaction value of around HKD 14 billion [1] - Hong Kong real estate stocks have risen approximately 25% year-to-date, and the fourth quarter performance is expected to be driven by several factors [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The CCL leading index for second-hand property prices increased by 1.2% week-on-week, with a cumulative increase of 0.8% for the year; if this trend continues, it may narrow the net asset value (NAV) discount for real estate stocks [1] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, it is estimated that Hong Kong's best lending rate will decrease by 12.5 basis points [1] - Strong retail performance is anticipated during the Golden Week in Hong Kong and mainland China [1] Group 3: Preferred Stocks - Citigroup's preferred stocks include Link REIT, Swire Properties, and New World Development, with a positive outlook on Hang Lung Properties as well [1] - The company expects an increase in pricing power for new developments, combined with potential interest rate cuts, leading to significant residential property prices and transaction volumes by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The core driving factors of the Hong Kong real estate market are interest rate fluctuations, with a downward trend in the US benchmark interest rate expected to be a certainty in the near term [1][2] - The Hong Kong real estate market has entered a new cycle driven by policy changes and structural differentiation, with a significant rebound expected following the "withdrawal of tightening" policy in February 2024 [1][2] - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand residential properties in Hong Kong is projected to reach 53,099 transactions in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5% compared to 2023 [1] Group 2 - The recovery of the Hong Kong market is attributed to the resonance of three main factors: policy, interest rates, and demand, with a shift from suppression to full stimulation in the policy environment after February 2024 [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority injected a total of HKD 129 billion into the market due to a strong Hong Kong dollar, leading to a significant drop in the 1-month HIBOR from 3.98% to 0.57% [2] - The introduction of talent recruitment plans has contributed to a year-on-year population growth in Hong Kong by June 2025, enhancing purchasing power and stabilizing the market [2] Group 3 - The current phase of the Hong Kong real estate market is characterized as an initial recovery stage, marked by a halt in price declines, a narrowing of price drops, and structural stabilization [3] - Transaction volumes have rebounded, and sentiment indicators have improved, indicating a shift in policy direction from "preventing bubbles" to "stabilizing the market" [3] - Leading indicators show a continuous decline in interest rates, increased supply, improved inventory digestion rates, and a positive impact on demand from population recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong real estate stocks experienced an afternoon rally, driven by market expectations of favorable government policies in the upcoming 2025 policy address [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - New World Development (00016) rose by 4.33% to HKD 97.55 - Hang Lung Properties (00101) increased by 2.33% to HKD 8.8 - Hysan Development (00012) gained 2.07% to HKD 27.6 - Henderson Land Development (00014) climbed 1.71% to HKD 16.08 [1] Group 2: Government Policy Expectations - The Hong Kong government is set to announce the 2025 policy address on Wednesday, 17th - UBS anticipates the government will reduce stamp duty on residential properties valued between HKD 4 million to HKD 6 million - Proposed initiatives include a "Home Purchase Fund" plan, further relaxation of capital investor entry qualifications, and measures to attract more mainland visitors [1] Group 3: Impact on Real Estate Developers - The new policy address is expected to benefit developers such as Hysan Development, New World Development, and Sino Land - Increased mainland visitor traffic is likely to support regional mall owners, including Wharf Real Estate Investment and Hysan Development - Accelerated development in the Northern Metropolis may pose negative implications for MTR Corporation due to rising capital expenditure concerns, but could positively impact land reclamation for Henderson Land Development [1] Group 4: REITs and Market Outlook - UBS predicts that the inclusion of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the mutual market connectivity will have a positive effect on Link REIT [1]