硬·AI 作者 | 杨 宸 编辑 | 硬 AI 继腾讯云之后，阿里云与百度智能云也宣布涨价。受Token调用量爆发与供应链成本攀升双重催化，云基础设施服务正式 由降价步入涨价拐点。大摩认为，AI时代，中国云市场正在打破二十年来的通缩魔咒，一个前所未有的提价周期正在降 临。 中国云计算行业正在出现罕见的定价反转。继腾讯云之后，阿里云与百度智能云也宣布涨价，这标志着中 国云 市场长达二十年的"持续降价"逻辑开始松动，一场史无前例的涨价周期正在降临。 3月18日午间，阿里云在官网公告称，因全球AI需求爆发，叠加供应链涨价，将对AI算力，存储等产品进 行调价， 最高上调34% 。阿里云MaaS业务百炼在今年1-3月创下历史最高增速，阿里云正将紧缺的AI算 力资源向Token业务倾斜。 同日A股收盘后，百度智能云也发布调价公告， AI算力相关产品服务上调约5%-30%，并行文件存储等上 调约30%。 两家头部厂商在不到四小时内先后提价，凸显AI算力供需紧张正在向价格层面传导。 摩根士丹利在本周稍早前的一份报告中指出，云计算一直是一个价格通缩的行业——规模越大，成本越 低，价格就越向下。 AI时代正在打破这一范式，伴随T ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is entering a new strategic cycle driven by AI investments, prioritizing long-term AI infrastructure over short-term profit growth [3][5] Investment Strategy - Tencent plans to double its investment in AI products, including the "Hunyuan" model, by 2026, while reducing share buybacks this year [3][6] - The shift from share repurchase to increased AI investment has led to market volatility, with Tencent's ADR dropping 4% and its major shareholder Prosus falling 8% [3][6] Profit Expectations - Goldman Sachs has lowered Tencent's net profit growth forecast for 2026 to 7%, down from a previous estimate of 10%, due to increased operational costs associated with AI [6][7] - The operating profit margin is expected to narrow by 65 basis points in the 2026 fiscal year due to rising AI-related expenses [6][7] Valuation Multiples - Despite the downward revision in profit expectations, Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent, citing potential for valuation multiple recovery [9] - Tencent's forward P/E ratio is currently around 16 times, lower than the 18 times at the beginning of the year and below international peers like META and Alphabet [9][13] Core Business Performance - Tencent's total revenue grew by 13% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with the gaming business increasing by 22% driven by AI efficiencies [10][11] - Marketing services revenue is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year, supported by enhanced AI advertising models [10][11] Future Focus - The recovery in valuation will depend on the successful integration of AI into core businesses and the commercial performance of new AI products like Hunyuan 3.0 and WeChat AI Assistant in the next 3 to 6 months [12][13]

18 Mar 2026 18:21:03 ET │ 22 pages Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) Ac t i o n | | n Buy | | | --- | --- | | Price (18 Mar 26 16:10) | HK$550.50 | | Target price | HK$787.00↑ | | from HK$783.00 | | | Expected share price | 43.0% | | return | | | Expected dividend yield | 1.1% | | Expected total return | 44.1% | | Market Cap | HK$5,013,049M | | | US$639,726M | Price Performance (RIC: 0700.HK, BB: 700 HK) Alicia Yap, CFA AC +852-2501-2773 alicia.yap@citi.com Resilient Core & Strong CF Support AI Transformation Inve ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Tencent with a target price of HK$750.00, down from the previous target of HK$760.00, indicating a potential upside of 36.2% from the current price of HK$550.50 [2][11]. Core Insights - Tencent reported in-line 4Q25 results with total revenue increasing by 13% YoY to RMB194.4 billion and non-IFRS operating income rising by 17% YoY to RMB69.5 billion, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates [1][2]. - The company is set to double its investment in new AI products in FY26 to over RMB36 billion, which is expected to strengthen its core businesses and capture emerging opportunities in AI, despite potential short-term earnings drag [1][7]. - Revenue growth is projected to be sustainable at 10%/7%/5% over FY26-28E, with adjusted net profit growth expected to decelerate to +6% YoY in FY26E before reaccelerating in FY27/28E [7][8]. Financial Performance - For FY25, Tencent's total revenue was RMB751.8 billion, with adjusted net profit at RMB259.6 billion, and EPS (Adjusted) at RMB28.55 [2][22]. - The company expects FY26 revenue to reach RMB823.5 billion, with adjusted net profit forecasted at RMB276.2 billion and adjusted EPS at RMB30.3 [2][8]. - The gross profit margin is projected to decline slightly to 56.8% in FY26E due to increased AI investments [8][9]. Business Segments - Games revenue grew by 21% YoY to RMB59.3 billion in 4Q25, driven by both domestic and international game sales [7]. - Marketing services revenue increased by 17% YoY to RMB41.1 billion, supported by AI-enhanced ad performance [7]. - Fintech and Business Services revenue rose by 8% YoY to RMB60.8 billion, with business services revenue growth accelerating to 22% YoY in 4Q25 [7]. Valuation Breakdown - The SOTP-derived target price of HK$750.0 includes HK$347.4 for the games business, HK$33.2 for the SNS business, HK$148.5 for marketing services, HK$105.8 for fintech, HK$33.4 for cloud services, and HK$72.7 for strategic investments [11][12][13][14][15].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-03-19 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-03-04 | 2026/02 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.0 | 49.2 | 50.2 | | 2026-03-04 | 2026/02 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.5 | 49.5 | 50.4 | | 2026-03-16 | 2026/02 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 23855 | 24926 | 22331 | | 2026-03-13 | 2026/02 | M0:同比 | % | 14.1 | 10.6 | 9.7 | | 2026-03-13 | 2026/02 | M1:同比 | % | 5.9 | 4.9 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 550.50 and a fair value of HKD 731.64 [5]. Core Insights - The company's core business remains resilient, supported by strong cash flow, allowing for increased investment in AI infrastructure and talent. The integration of AI into social applications is expected to enhance user engagement and operational efficiency [11][19]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 8,287 billion in 2026 and RMB 9,082 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.2% and 9.6% respectively. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 2,872 billion and RMB 3,263 billion for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 10.6% and 13.6% [4][11]. Financial Performance Overview - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 1,944 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus estimates [11]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2025 was RMB 647 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8% [11]. - The full-year revenue for 2025 was RMB 7,518 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14%, and the adjusted net profit was RMB 2,596 billion, up 17% from the previous year [11]. Revenue Breakdown - The gaming business generated RMB 593 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 21%. Domestic game revenue was RMB 382 billion, up 15%, while overseas game revenue reached RMB 211 billion, up 32% [12][19]. - Social network revenue for Q4 2025 was RMB 306 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [17]. - Marketing services revenue was RMB 411 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 17%, driven by AI-enhanced advertising capabilities [19]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit for Q4 2025 was RMB 1,083 billion, with a gross margin of 56%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year [20]. - Operating profit for Q4 2025 was RMB 603 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [20]. - The adjusted EPS for Q4 2025 was RMB 6.97, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [11]. Future Projections - The company is expected to solidify its mixed-reality model capabilities, leveraging cross-platform social scenarios to enhance AI product integration and application ecosystems [11]. - The estimated fair value of the company, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, is HKD 731.64 per share, maintaining the "Buy" rating [36][37].

打破多模态 视觉+语言 拼接套路！ 腾讯开源Penguin-VL，直接用纯文本LLM训视觉编码器。 Penguin-VL团队 投稿 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 这项研究跳出了先有传统视觉 backbone，再接语言模型的常规路径，直接从text-only LLM初始化vision encoder。 并在2B/8B紧凑参数规模下的文档理解、长视频时序定位等复杂任务中表现出极强竞争力。 从LLM出发的视觉编码器重构 如果把这两年的多模态模型拆开看，一个很有意思的现象是： 大家在语言模型上卷得很凶，但到了vision encoder这一层，路线却出奇一致。 很多VLM最后都会回到那套熟悉配方，先拿CLIP、SigLIP这类通过对比学习训出来的视觉模型做encoder，再接上LLM往下训。 这条路线当然强，也足够成熟。 但Penguin-VL团队想问的，不是"这条路能不能走"，而是"它是不是复杂视觉理解最合适的起点"。 因为对比学习最擅长的，本来就是判别、检索和图文匹配。 它会主动把图像压进一个更适合分类和对齐的语义空间里。 可一旦任务变成文档阅读、图表理解、细粒度描述、多图关系判断，甚至长视频里的时间定位，模 ...

腾讯2025年营收7517.7亿，总薪酬1307亿，人均年薪超112万。 整理 ｜徐子欣 点击上方【36氪随声听】，一键收听大公司热门新闻。听完音频记得添加进入 【我的小程序】 中哟！ 腾讯财报披露：2025年营收7517.7亿，总薪酬1307亿，人均年薪超112万 据第一财经日报，3月18日，腾讯控股（00700.HK）发布2025年第四季度及全年财报。AI持续推动公司盈利结构优化：Q4营收 1943.7亿元，同比增长13%；Non-IFRS经营利润695.2亿元，同比增长17%。全年营收7517.7亿元，同比增长14%；Non-IFRS经 营利润同比增长18%。 下周油价或重回"9元时代" 碧桂园回应大规模召回离职员工 多款知名中成感冒药被要求补全不良反应 iPhone18将首次启用三星相机 微信能折叠发图了：三张以上可合并展示 杨植麟GTC 2026演讲：首次完整披露Kimi模型技术路线图 截至2025年12月31日，腾讯集团共有员工115849名，较2024年的110558名增加超过5000人。腾讯2025年度的总薪酬成本达到人 民币1307亿元，相较于2024年的1128亿元，同比增长约15.9%。 ...

Key Points - The article discusses various significant developments in the technology and automotive sectors, highlighting trends and company performances in AI, electric vehicles, and corporate strategies [4][6][12][19][30][36][48]. Group 1: AI Developments - Japan's Rakuten AI 3.0 was criticized for allegedly copying the Chinese open-source model DeepSeek V3, leading to public backlash and discussions about the integrity of AI development in Japan [4][5]. - Tencent's annual report revealed a significant increase in employee compensation, with an average annual salary cost exceeding 1 million RMB, reflecting the company's growth and investment in talent [6][7]. - Baidu appointed He Jingzhou as the head of its App R&D center to enhance the integration of large models with search and recommendation services, indicating a strategic focus on AI advancements [10][12]. Group 2: Automotive Industry Insights - Geely's Vice President confirmed that Dong Mingzhu ordered three Zeekr 009 vehicles, highlighting a growing trend of high-profile Chinese entrepreneurs supporting domestic luxury brands [8][9]. - Chery Automobile announced its energy strategy, introducing the Rhino battery technology, which emphasizes safety and sustainability in electric vehicle production [12][13]. - Chery's financial report showed a record revenue of 300.29 billion RMB in 2025, with a 36.1% increase in net profit, driven by strong sales in both domestic and international markets [36][37]. Group 3: Corporate Strategies and Market Trends - ByteDance introduced internal security protocols for its employees, emphasizing the importance of data protection and compliance in the tech industry [19]. - The automotive sector is witnessing a shift as traditional manufacturers face pressure from domestic brands, leading to performance-based employee evaluations and potential layoffs in some companies [21][22]. - OpenAI is preparing for an IPO, focusing on enterprise-level business to strengthen its commercialization efforts, indicating a trend towards public offerings in the tech sector [54].

Group 1: Housing Fund Policy in Shenzhen - Shenzhen has revised its housing fund management regulations, allowing employees to voluntarily increase their personal contribution rate to a maximum of 12% to access higher loan amounts [2] - As of December 2025, Shenzhen's housing fund has accumulated 10,329 billion yuan, with 6,941 billion yuan withdrawn by employees and 3,926 billion yuan in loans issued [2] - The new policy aims to enhance flexibility in the housing fund system, potentially increasing liquidity in the market while maintaining limits on withdrawals and loan amounts to prevent excessive outflow [2][3] Group 2: Airline Fuel Surcharge Increases - Multiple domestic airlines have raised international fuel surcharges by over 50%, with some routes seeing increases of up to 100% [4] - The rise in fuel costs is attributed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased operational costs for airlines, which were already facing low ticket prices [4][5] - The next adjustment for domestic routes is scheduled for April 5, with current surcharges set at 10 yuan for flights under 800 kilometers and 20 yuan for longer flights [4] Group 3: OpenAI's Strategic Shift - OpenAI is planning a significant strategic shift, focusing resources on programming tools and the enterprise market, moving away from its previous broad approach [6] - The urgency for this shift is heightened by the upcoming IPO, with OpenAI needing to establish a sustainable revenue model to enhance its valuation [7] - The company aims to regain its competitive edge in the enterprise AI service market, which has been successfully tapped by competitors like Anthropic [6][7] Group 4: Cloud Service Price Increases - Alibaba Cloud and Baidu Cloud have announced price increases for AI computing and storage products, with hikes ranging from 5% to 34% [8] - This trend follows similar price adjustments by major global cloud providers, indicating a shift in the supply-demand dynamics in the cloud computing market [8][9] - The rising demand for AI capabilities is driving up costs for cloud services, necessitating these price adjustments [8] Group 5: BMW Price Reductions - BMW has announced significant price reductions for 31 models, with some reductions exceeding 30,000 yuan, aiming to adjust to competitive pressures in the Chinese market [10] - In 2025, BMW's sales in China fell by 12.5% to 626,000 units, while sales in Europe and the U.S. saw growth [10] - The price adjustments are part of a strategy to clear inventory and prepare for new product launches in the competitive Chinese market [10][11] Group 6: Sunac China Financial Outlook - Sunac China has projected a loss of between 12 billion to 13 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to reduced revenue and increased asset impairment provisions [14] - The company has completed a significant debt restructuring, converting approximately 9.6 billion USD of debt into convertible bonds, which will alleviate immediate cash flow pressures [14][15] - Sunac is focusing on revitalizing its projects in first- and second-tier cities and is actively seeking external funding to support its operations [15] Group 7: Stock Market Performance - The stock market saw a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.32%, ending a four-day decline, driven by a recovery in the computing power industry [16] - Market sentiment improved with over 3,500 stocks gaining, while defensive sectors like oil and gas weakened [16][17] - Despite the recovery, overall market risk appetite remains limited, with trading volumes decreasing, indicating cautious investor sentiment [17]