恒生指数 21.4% 15.3% 18.4% 52 周价格区间（港元） 260.20-482.40 流通股本（万股） 927,961.82 2024 年 10 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 游戏加速，广告稳健，持续高质量增长 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 尹芮 S0350522110001 yinr@ghzq.com.cn ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）2024Q3 财报前瞻 最近一年走势 1、主要财务指标前瞻：我们预计公司 2024Q3 实现营业收入 1670 亿元（YoY+8%）。其中增值服务 823 亿元（YoY+9%），增值服务 中游戏业务 518 亿元（YoY+13%）、社交网络 305 亿元（YoY+3%）， 在线广告业务 298 亿元（YoY+16%），金融科技和企业服务 536 亿 元（YoY+3%）。预计公司 2024Q3 毛利率 53%（YoY+4pct），毛 利润891亿元（YoY+16%）;销售费用率 6%，一般及行政费用率 17%； NON-IFRS 经营利润 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 腾讯控股（00700.HK）3Q24 业绩前瞻 推荐（维持） 聚焦经营韧性：游戏收入继续抬升，广告增 速放缓，FTB 关注毛利率改善 事项： 3Q24 业绩前瞻：我们预计公司 3Q24 实现收入 1672 亿元，YOY+8%，QOQ+4%； 实现毛利润 891 亿元，YOY+16%，QOQ+4%，对应 GPM 53%；实现 NONIFRS 口径下营业利润 610 亿元，YOY+18%，QOQ+4%；实现 NON-IFRS 口径 下归母净利润 546 亿元，YOY+22%，QOQ-5%。其中营业利润与净利润增速 有所背离，主要由于我们预计分占联营企业利润将有所收窄。 评论： 增值服务：前期增量游戏流水确认，带动收入继续提速。我们预计 3Q24 网络 游戏业务实现收入 523 亿元，YOY+13%，QOQ+8%。其中，1）我们预计本土 市场游戏实现收入 370 亿元（口径为不包含分配到社交网络中的部分）， YOY+13%，QOQ+7%，主要反应前期上线的重点新产品《地下城与勇士：起 源》流水到收入的逐步确认，核心产品《王者荣耀》、《和平精英》在玩法和运 营更新驱动下的环比增长，以及《英雄联 ...

Investment Rating - Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) maintains an "Outperform" rating [2][4][13] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 1684 billion in 2024Q3, a 9% YoY growth, with adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 555 billion, up 24% YoY [3][5] - The company's advertising business is expected to grow 16% YoY, driven by video account traffic and the launch of the advertising system 3 0 [3][5] - The gaming business is projected to grow 13% YoY, with domestic games up 15% and overseas games up 9% [3][7] - Financial technology and enterprise services are expected to grow 3% YoY, impacted by macroeconomic conditions [3][5] Business Segment Analysis Gaming - Domestic gaming revenue is expected to grow 15% YoY, with key games like "Peace Elite" and "Naruto Mobile" showing strong performance [7] - Overseas gaming revenue is projected to grow 9% YoY, with "Brawl Stars" maintaining a strong position [7] - "DNF Mobile" saw a decline in user numbers but remains a top performer in the iOS bestseller rankings [7][8] Advertising - Advertising revenue is expected to grow 16% YoY, supported by video account traffic and the launch of the advertising system 3 0 [3][10] - WeChat Mini Stores have activated full-domain traffic, potentially accelerating video account growth [10] - AI-powered advertising is expected to improve CTR by 5-10% [10] Financial Technology & Enterprise Services - Revenue is expected to grow 3% YoY, with payment services impacted by macroeconomic conditions [3][11] - High-margin businesses like wealth management are growing healthily [4] Financial Forecasts - Adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 2198/2482/2729 billion, with a slight downward revision of 1% for each year [4][13] - Target price is set at HKD 471-528, based on a 16-18x PE ratio for 2025 [4][13] Key Financial Metrics - 2024Q3 revenue is expected to reach RMB 1684 billion, with a gross margin of 53% and a Non-IFRS net margin of 33% [6] - Adjusted EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 24 05/26 23/28 03 [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 495.00, up from the previous target of HKD 465.35 [3][6] Core Views - Tencent's 3Q revenue is expected to grow 9.3% YoY, with advertising revenue slowing to 16% YoY due to macroeconomic factors [3] - Long-term growth drivers include the potential launch of new games like "Honor of Kings: World" and "Dawn" in 2025, which could generate monthly revenues of RMB 1.5-2.5 billion [3] - Video account advertising load rates are expected to increase in 4Q, and the integration of WeChat Pay with Taotian could boost advertising and payment revenue CAGR by 3-4 percentage points from 2025-2026 [3][4] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upward by 0.9%, 1.1%, and 0.5% to RMB 216.3 billion, RMB 250.3 billion, and RMB 285.2 billion, respectively [3] Financial Performance - 3Q gaming revenue is expected to grow 13.4% YoY, with domestic and international gaming revenues increasing by 12.4% and 16.0%, respectively [5] - The "DnF" mobile game contributed RMB 8-9 billion in 3Q, while "Peacekeeper Elite" saw iOS revenue growth of 22% and 24% YoY in August and September [5] - During the National Day holiday, Tencent's iOS gaming revenue grew 15% YoY, driven by strong performances from "Golden Shovel," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Naruto" [5][12] Strategic Developments - The integration of WeChat Pay with Taotian is expected to generate RMB 4-8 billion in annualized commission revenue, primarily from lower-tier cities [4][9] - WeChat Shop upgrades and incentive policies are projected to contribute RMB 150-300 billion in GMV over the next two years [4] - Tencent's video account advertising is expected to accelerate in 4Q, driven by the peak season for live-streaming e-commerce [4] Gaming Segment - Tencent's gaming segment remains robust, with "DnF" mobile game maintaining high rankings on the iOS bestseller list since its launch in May [5] - New games like "Delta Action" achieved RMB 15-25 million in first-week revenue, while "Peacekeeper Elite" saw significant revenue growth due to accelerated commercialization [5][12] - Tencent is focusing on optimizing player experience for "DnF," with updates including new professions, pet functions, and PVP balance adjustments [15][16][17] Valuation and Forecasts - The SOTP valuation for Tencent is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, with gaming, social networks, online advertising, fintech, and enterprise services contributing to the target price of HKD 495.00 [29] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upward by 0.1%, 0.8%, and 1.5%, respectively, driven by stronger advertising and payment revenue growth [22] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are RMB 216.3 billion, RMB 250.3 billion, and RMB 285.2 billion, reflecting higher-margin business contributions [22]

传媒 证 券 研 究 报 告 上 市 公 司 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 评 2024 年 10 月 11 日 腾讯控股 (00700) ——24Q3 前瞻：游戏和视频号持续拉动增长 报告原因：有新的信息需要补充 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 10 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 438.80 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7620.74 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 482.40/260.20 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 40,718.96 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 9,279.62 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0987 | 投资要点： 买入（维持）事件： ⚫ 我们预计腾讯 24Q3 实现营业收入 1658 亿元，同比增长 7%；调整后归母净利润 535 亿元， 同比增长 19%。 ⚫ 近期政策积极信号释放，带来资本市场提振，腾讯投资公司估值亦提升；未来对消费展 望有望转向乐观但需要时间。腾讯基本面确定性仍 ...

盈利预测：注：归母净利润和 EPS 均为 NonGAAP 口径； [Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 【 广 发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 腾 讯 控 股 （00700.HK） 24Q3 前瞻：游戏趋势向好，广告韧性较强 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 24Q3 业绩前瞻：预计 24Q3 收入达 1658 亿元，YoY/QoQ+7%/+3%。 24Q3 NonGAAP 归母净利润预计达 542 亿元，YoY/QoQ+21%/-5%。 NonGAAP 摊薄每股盈利为 5.68 元，YoY+22%，QoQ-5%。 预计 24Q3 游戏业绩趋势持续向好，广告彰显韧性，金融业务受消费疲 弱拖累。（1）24Q3 游戏收入预计达到 515 亿元，YoY/QoQ+12%/+6%， 其中，预计国内游戏同比增长 11%，海外游戏收入预计同比增长 14%。 国内新产品《地下城与勇士：起源》贡献增量，但去年下半年国内老游 戏的流水压力会对今年的游戏递延收入带来拖累，而海外游戏受益于 24Q1 流水增长加速，预计短期的增长提速效应更明显。（2）24Q3 社 交网络收入预计为 299 亿元，YoY+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) with a target price range of 473 63-526 25 HKD [1][3] Core Views - The report highlights the potential financial and business impact of Taobao's full integration with WeChat Pay, estimating significant revenue growth for WeChat Pay [1][8] - The integration is expected to bring in billions of RMB annually, with a potential revenue increase of 1%-4% for Tencent's FinTech and Business Services (FTB) segment by FY25 [1][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of data flow from e-commerce transactions, which could help Tencent improve its e-commerce capabilities, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce on WeChat Channels [1][21] Financial Impact Analysis - The report estimates that Taobao's integration with WeChat Pay could generate 4 2-25 0 billion RMB annually, depending on the penetration rate and fee structure [1][16] - Under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the revenue impact is projected at 4 2, 8 3, and 25 0 billion RMB respectively for every 5% penetration rate [1][16] - The report forecasts that Tencent's FTB business will maintain a "low growth + gradual gross margin improvement" state due to changes in revenue structure and increased usage of WeChat Pay's "zero balance" payments [1][22] Business Impact Analysis - The integration is expected to enhance Tencent's e-commerce data capabilities, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce, which saw a 3x growth in GMV in 2023 compared to 2022 [1][21] - The report notes that WeChat Pay's data flow could help Tencent build a more robust e-commerce ecosystem, especially in areas where it has been historically weak [1][21] Financial Projections - The report projects Tencent's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 6655, 7257, and 7840 billion RMB, with year-over-year growth rates of 9%, 9%, and 8% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 2197, 2464, and 2742 billion RMB for 2024-2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 39%, 12%, and 11% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS EPS is projected to be 23 94, 27 55, and 31 44 RMB for 2024-2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 44%, 15%, and 14% respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings (00700) is "Buy" with a target price of 476 HKD, maintaining the rating [1]. Core Views - The acceleration of AI business implementation and the trend of platform interconnectivity are expected to create new growth points for the company [1]. - Tencent's new generation model "Tencent Mix Yuan Turbo" has shown significant performance improvements, with training efficiency up by 108%, inference efficiency up by 100%, and inference costs down by 50% compared to previous models [1]. - The company has integrated its AI infrastructure under the brand "Tencent Cloud Intelligence," which has already served 90% of domestic large model vendors [1]. - The gaming revenue is expected to continue to increase quarter-on-quarter in the second half of the year, supported by the launch of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current Price: 387.6 HKD - Target Price: 476 HKD - 6-Month Rating: Buy (Maintain Rating) [1]. Company Performance - Tencent's total shares outstanding: 9,342.57 million shares - Total market capitalization: 3,621,180.68 million HKD - Net asset value per share: 100.81 HKD - Debt-to-asset ratio: 43.95% [1]. AI Business Development - The new model "Tencent Mix Yuan Turbo" has achieved the highest score in domestic large model evaluations, outperforming competitors like GPT-4o [1]. - The company has nearly 700 internal business units utilizing the Mix Yuan model, with API calls reaching approximately 300 million [1]. Gaming Sector Insights - The new game "Delta Action" is set to launch on September 26, which may enhance Tencent's market position in the shooting game category [1]. - The performance of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" has been strong, consistently ranking high in the iOS game sales charts since its launch [1]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in gaming revenue in the second half of the year, with a focus on the operational rhythm of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" [1]. - As of September 23, 2024, the company's stock is projected to have a PE ratio of 16x/13x/12x for the years 2024/2025/2026, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [1].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) with a "Recommend" rating [3] Core Views - Tencent is an absolute leader in the internet industry with diversified shareholder return methods The company plans to double its share buyback scale to over HKD 100 billion in 2024 [2] - The company's high-quality endogenous growth momentum has recovered with high-margin businesses accounting for a larger proportion In Q2 2024 Tencent achieved total revenue of RMB 1611 billion up 8% YoY with gross profit of RMB 859 billion up 213% YoY and gross margin of 533% up 58 percentage points YoY [2] - Tencent's game business is improving and the commercialization space for Video Accounts is vast Key drivers include the recovery of flagship games strong performance of new games and the rapid growth of Video Account advertising revenue [3] Financial Analysis Revenue - In 2023 Tencent's revenue reached RMB 6090 billion up 98% YoY with financial technology and enterprise services and game businesses contributing the most [20] - In Q2 2024 Tencent's domestic game revenue was RMB 346 billion up 9% YoY while overseas game revenue was RMB 139 billion up 9% YoY [22] Profitability - Tencent's gross profit in 2023 was RMB 293109 billion up 228% YoY with gross margin increasing from 431% in 2022 to 481% in 2023 [24] - In Q2 2024 Tencent's Non-IFRS net profit was RMB 573 billion up 526% YoY with a Non-IFRS net margin of 356% up 104 percentage points YoY [2] Business Highlights Games - Domestic games are recovering with flagship games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" showing positive growth in Q2 2024 [32] - Overseas games are performing well with "PUBG MOBILE" and "NIKKE" showing strong growth Supercell's games are also contributing significantly to overseas revenue [39][41] Video Accounts - Video Account advertising revenue grew over 80% YoY in Q2 2024 driven by increased user engagement and live streaming e-commerce [52] - The commercialization potential of Video Accounts is vast with further growth expected from increased ad load rates and user engagement [54] Financial Technology - Tencent's financial technology business saw slower growth in Q2 2024 with payment transaction volume stabilizing and wealth management revenue growing double-digit YoY [3] - The company is focusing on improving payment penetration and convenience with initiatives like "foreign card binding" and "Hong Kong wallet expansion" [64] Social Networks - Social network revenue in Q2 2024 was RMB 303 billion up 2% YoY driven by growth in music and video subscription revenue as well as mini-game platform service fees [46] - Mini-games on WeChat have shown strong growth with MAU exceeding 500 million and high user retention rates [48] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts Tencent's revenue for 2024 2025 and 2026 to be RMB 6607 billion RMB 7214 billion and RMB 7819 billion respectively with Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 2159 billion RMB 2421 billion and RMB 2588 billion respectively [3] - Based on the closing price on September 23 2024 the adjusted PE ratios for 2024 2025 and 2026 are 15X 14X and 13X respectively [3]

腾讯控股（00700.HK）首次覆盖报告：深度系列（一） [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 游戏业务进入复苏通道，视频号力争增量空间 2024 年 09 月 24 日 ➢ 互联网行业绝对龙头，股东回报方式多样化：腾讯向全球用户提供全方位的 互动娱乐产品和服务，在即时通信、社交、游戏、数字内容等领域具备行业龙头 优势，并拥有多元的增值服务变现模式。为应对大股东长期减持计划，2024 年 公司计划回购规模有望翻倍至 1000 亿港元以上，截至 2024 年 9 月 23 日，公 司累计回购金额达 864 亿港元。近年来，公司提供股票分红、现金分红等多样化 的股东回报以提振市场信心。 ➢ 内生高质量增长动能恢复，高毛利业务占比提升：收入端，24Q2，公司实 现总收入 1611 亿元，同比+8%。其中，本土游戏/海外游戏/社交网络/网络广告 / 金 科 及 企 服 业 务 收 入 分别为 346/139/303/299/504 亿元，分别 同 比 +9%/+9%/+2%/+19%/+4%。利润端，24Q2 毛利润 859 亿元，同比+21.3%， 毛利率 53.3%，同比+5.8pct。毛利率的改善 ...