Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Tencent Holdings continues to demonstrate high growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth driven by the deepening application of AI and the performance of both new and existing games. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 226.4 billion yuan, 256.2 billion yuan, and 288.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 23.7, 20.9, and 18.6 times [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 609.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.8%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 752.39 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% increase [6] - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 115.22 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 68.4% expected in 2024, leading to a net profit of 194.07 billion yuan [6] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 56.4% by 2025, up from 48.1% in 2023, indicating enhanced profitability [6]

中国银行表示，该行充分发挥集团全球化优势、综合化特色，助力多家科技型龙头企业首次发行点心 债，多笔债券在期限结构、发行主体、市场容量等实现创新突破，进一步丰富了发行主体，完善了市场 生态，为离岸人民币市场注入了新动能，为丰富科技金融耐心资本拓展了新渠道。 据了解，点心债，又称"离岸人民币债券"，是指中国境外发行的，以人民币计价，定期获得利息、到期 归还本金及利息皆以人民币支付的债券，不仅为内地及香港企业提供了多元化融资渠道，也有利于提升 人民币在境外的流通效率和国际使用程度。 中证报中证网讯（记者 吴杨）中国银行11月14日消息，近日中国银行作为全球协调人先后为阿里巴 巴、百度、腾讯、美团等多家科技领军企业在香港市场发行点心债，合计发行金额超过470亿元。债券 发行均受到离岸人民币投融资市场热捧，合计认购金额接近1500亿元，是发行金额的3.2倍。 ...

上周 Cursor 的 D 轮融资可以说把 AI 编程赛道推向了一个新的高度，Accel、Coatue、a16z 以及 Nvidia 和 Google 等一起投了 23 亿美金， 估值 293 亿 美金直接比今年 1 月份涨了近 12 倍 。 创始人 Michael Truell 说这笔基金将用于加大技术研发投入、训练更前沿的模型（比如他们在十月发布的 "Composer" agent 模型），并扩展面向企业、 尤其是财富 500 强公司的业务。 而刘晓春在百度先后担任搜索、推荐广告和电子商务的技术与产品负责人，组建并领导了一个 300 多人的跨职能团队，构建并扩展了公司首个集成直播 电商平台。 Verdent 官方网站提到了其愿景： 创造人工智能工具，使工程师的能力倍增数百甚至数千倍，赋能他们通过无限的想象力和创造力塑造未来。 它主张从 keystroke-completion（按键级补全）向「结果导向」（outcome-driven）委派转型。也就是，不只是补全代码，而是让 AI 代理自主拆任务、 编写、验证。 支持 "计划 → 编码 → 验证" 的闭环：Verdent 有一个 "Plan Mode"（规 ...

交银国际发表研报指，腾讯上季业绩表现胜预期，收入按年增长15%，较该行预测高4%。其中，游 戏、社交、营销服务与金融科技及企业服务收入分别增长23%、4%、21%及10%，期内毛利增22%，继 续高于收入的增长速度。交银国际指，受到本土游戏、视频号和微信搜索等业务的贡献提升，以及云服 务成本持续优化，腾讯上季毛利率提升至56.4%，经调整每股盈利亦增长19%，较该行预期高6%，预测 未来可维持稳定收入及利润增长，估计今年全年资本支出将提升至约800亿元，目标价由700港元上调至 729港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

在上周腾讯的业绩披露后，市场对恒生科技指数更有信心，一是腾讯的业绩全面超出市场预期，作为恒生科技权重仓股的腾讯开始回购，将为市场带来支 撑；二是美国政府停摆结束，未来1-2个月的宏观情况将逐渐清晰起来，12月有着美联储再降息的刺激，可能会为港股带来新一轮的上涨动力。 最近美股的波动也不小，但港股最近在美股MAG 7剧烈波动的情况下，像腾讯阿里这种大票的波动已经不大了，因为港股可以说是提前美股调整了一段 时间，而现在就等美股重新企稳，随着市场的风险偏好回升，回调后的恒生科技指数还是值得关注的。 首先，从点位来看，目前恒生科技的点位在上一轮行情的起涨点，而近期的低点是5700点附近，这个低点造成的原因是美股的大跌，全球资金的避险情绪 引起。 当时引发避险的原因，一是美国政府停摆引发的美国流动性紧张，当时美国SOFR的利率相当于没有降息；二是在没有宏观数据的情况下，美联储对12月 的降息表述是偏鹰的发言，包括现在也是偏鹰派的，因为缺失了一个月的数据证明。三是机构资金在年底前提前锁定利润，开始卖出减仓。 这3个原因对美股和港股都有不小的影响，但当前这两个原因都已解除了，反而跌多了是机构重新买入的机会。 理由很简单，临 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong stocks opened lower but quickly rebounded, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF showing strong performance, led by companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor, Meituan, Bilibili, and SMIC [1] - Recent financial reports from several Hong Kong technology companies for Q3 2025 indicate a robust growth trend, with notable performance in revenue, profit, and user engagement metrics [3] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings reported Q3 revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 63.1 billion yuan, up 19% [5] - JD Group achieved Q3 revenue of 299.1 billion yuan, a 14.9% increase, with retail revenue reaching 250.6 billion yuan, up 11.4% [5] - SMIC's Q3 revenue was 17.162 billion yuan, a 9.9% increase, with a net profit of 1.52 billion yuan, up 3.1% [5] - Bilibili reported Q3 revenue of 7.69 billion yuan, a 5% increase, with adjusted net profit soaring 233% to 786 million yuan [6] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has risen over 87% since the beginning of 2024, indicating strong market performance [7] - Analysts believe AI will continue to drive revenue growth for internet giants, with domestic companies expected to increase capital expenditures significantly starting mid-2024 [8] - Market sentiment is expected to improve, benefiting Hong Kong technology stocks, especially with potential foreign capital inflows and the Fed's possible interest rate cuts [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International forecasts Tencent Holdings (00700) to achieve adjusted EPS growth rates of 21%/18%/9% for 2025-2027, with target price raised to HKD 729, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, total revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to RMB 192.87 billion, exceeding expectations by 4%, with gaming revenue up 23%, social revenue up 4%, marketing revenue up 21%, and financial enterprise services up 10% [2] - Gross profit rose by 22% year-on-year, with gross margin improving by approximately 3.3 percentage points to 56.4%, driven by high-margin businesses such as domestic games, video accounts, and WeChat search, alongside ongoing cost optimization in cloud services [2] - Adjusted earnings per share reached RMB 7.58, a 19% increase year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 6% [2] Operational Highlights - Domestic game revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, benefiting from titles like Delta Action, Valorant, and Honor of Kings; overseas game revenue surged by 43%, driven by Brawl Stars, new games, and studio mergers [3] - Social revenue increased by 5%, supported by live streaming on video accounts and paid music services [3] - Marketing revenue rose by 21%, enhanced by new advertising products and AI-driven advertising effectiveness [3] - Financial technology revenue saw high single-digit growth, with accelerated growth in commercial payment transaction volume; enterprise services experienced double-digit growth, driven by merchant technology service fees and significant growth in cloud storage data management [3] Outlook and Valuation - The company expects game revenue growth rates of 21%/9% for 2025/2026, social revenue growth of 7% for both years, advertising growth of 19%/13%, and FBS growth of 9% for both years, indicating potential for upward adjustments [4] - Capital expenditure is projected to be below 10% of revenue in 2025, with an absolute value expected to be around RMB 80 billion, primarily for product iteration and upgrades, rather than focusing on computing power as a core business [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Tencent's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, reflecting robust growth across major business segments, particularly in advertising and gaming driven by AI [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's management has attributed the reduction in capital expenditure to GPU supply chain constraints, but anticipates accelerated development of its AI platform with increased adoption of its capabilities [1] - Revenue forecasts for the next two years have been raised by 0.9% and 1.4% respectively, while non-IFRS operating profit forecasts have been adjusted upwards by 0.3% and 1.5% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts have been increased by 1.6% and 2.9% for the upcoming years [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley reaffirms Tencent as a preferred stock with an "Overweight" rating and sets a target price of HKD 735 [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal disagreement regarding the future policy path, with various regional Fed presidents expressing differing views on inflation pressures, labor market resilience, and whether interest rates should continue to be lowered [2] - The current federal funds rate is in the range of 3.75% to 4%, but there is no consensus among decision-makers on whether this range is still "restrictive" [2] - Cleveland Fed President Mester advocates for maintaining stable interest rates to continue pressuring inflation back to the 2% target, highlighting persistent inflation impacts on low- and middle-income households [2] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard supports previous rate cuts but emphasizes that current inflation remains above the Fed's target, suggesting that policy should maintain some level of restrictiveness [2] - Investors face significant uncertainty regarding future policy direction, with the likelihood of another rate cut at the December meeting being nearly 50% according to interest rate futures pricing [2] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expressed reservations about the October rate cut, stating he did not support it at the time due to strong economic performance and has not yet decided how to vote in the upcoming meeting [2] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Finance plans to issue up to €4 billion in senior bonds [4] - Standard & Poor's has assigned an "A+" long-term foreign currency issuance rating to China's proposed euro-denominated bonds [6] - Country Garden Holdings announced key terms for its proposed restructuring, aiming to significantly reduce debt by over $11 billion, contingent on creditor participation in the restructuring plan [6] - Evergrande Property has been informed by its liquidator about the invitation for selected bidders to review further information and submit updated non-binding proposals by the end of November 2025 [6] - Evergrande Auto has received a court ruling regarding the bankruptcy and liquidation petition from creditors against its wholly-owned subsidiary, with production at its Tianjin facility suspended since January 2024 [6] Group 3 - As of November 13, the yield on China's two-year government bonds is 1.43%, while the ten-year yield is 1.81% [8] - The yield on U.S. two-year government bonds rose by 2 basis points to 3.58%, and the ten-year yield increased by 3 basis points to 4.11% [8]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping over 0.5% on November 17, 2023 [1] - Major ETFs, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180), followed the index's downward trend, with leading stocks like Trip.com, Lenovo, Baidu, and BYD Electronics underperforming, while Hua Hong Semiconductor, SMIC, and Alibaba showed gains [1] - A number of technology companies, including Baidu, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Netease, and Xpeng Motors, are set to release their latest financial results this week, with key earnings announcements scheduled for November 17 and 18 [1] Group 2 - According to Minsheng Securities, the recent earnings reports from leading internet companies like Tencent and Bilibili exceeded market expectations, and there is a recommendation to focus on the upcoming financial results from Xiaomi, Trip.com, Kuaishou, and Netease [1] - The report highlights a positive outlook on the revaluation of AI in China, suggesting attention to platform-based internet companies with synergistic advantages in computing resources, model capabilities, and application scenarios, such as Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Baidu, and Meituan [1] - As of November 14, the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) had a latest valuation (PETTM) of 22.47 times, which is lower than other major global tech indices, indicating that the index remains in a historically undervalued range [2]