股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 騰訊控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年3月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00700 | | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 80700 | RMB | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 50,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.00002 | HKD | | | 1,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | | HKD | | | | | 本月底結存 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Tech Index has dropped 28% since its peak in October last year, resulting in a market value loss of nearly $600 billion, with major companies like Tencent and Alibaba being significantly affected. The ongoing AI subsidy war raises concerns about profit erosion and the uncertainty of which company will ultimately prevail in the competition [1]. Group 1: AI Subsidy War - During the Spring Festival holiday, ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu collectively spent approximately $1.1 billion on subsidies to compete for users [2]. - Goldman Sachs recently lowered Alibaba's target price, citing that the company's capital expenditures to secure AI leadership will exceed previous expectations before 2028 [3]. - The upcoming financial reports are critical, with Alibaba expected to see a 45% year-on-year decline in net profit for the quarter ending last December, while Tencent may face its slowest quarterly profit growth since 2023 [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The AI hype initiated by DeepSeek has faded, replaced by concerns similar to those faced by major U.S. cloud computing companies, including rising memory chip costs and potential impacts of AI on existing businesses [5]. - Lorraine Tan, Director of Asian Equity Research at Morningstar, notes that while AI spending in China remains reasonable, there are worries about resource wastage and low returns due to intense competition [5]. - Emerging Chinese AI companies have shown resilience to global market fluctuations, with stocks like MiniMax and Tupu Technology rising over 280% since their listings this year [5]. - Bo Ning from China Merchants Securities describes a clear "see-saw" effect between traditional internet giants and emerging AI firms, while market sentiment remains cautious, awaiting clearer AI strategies from companies like Tencent and Alibaba [5]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 17 times based on forward earnings forecasts, below the five-year average of about 22 times, suggesting potential buying opportunities for undervalued large tech stocks [6]. - However, many investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, with concerns about user retention if subsidies cease, indicating significant uncertainty in determining the eventual winners in the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, has experienced significant declines, with a nearly 30% drop since October last year, despite ongoing buying interest from various funds [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a 12.45% decline year-to-date, with individual stocks like Kingdee International dropping nearly 30% and others like Ctrip, Meituan, Xiaopeng Motors, and Tencent Music falling over 20% [3]. - The overall decline of the Hang Seng Index has exceeded 27% since its peak on October 3 of the previous year, with many fund managers expressing that the recent drop was beyond their expectations [3]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Despite the market downturn, there has been a strong influx of capital into the Hang Seng Technology sector, primarily from three sources: southbound funds, company buybacks, and cross-border ETFs [5]. - Southbound funds have shown resilience, with 27 out of 36 trading days this year recording net inflows, totaling HKD 181.8 billion [5][6]. - Major companies like Tencent and Alibaba have seen significant increases in their holdings from southbound funds, with Tencent's market value held by these funds exceeding HKD 540 billion [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Future Outlook - The current rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Technology Index is at 20.09, which is below the historical average, indicating a potential undervaluation compared to tech stocks in the US, Japan, and South Korea [7]. - Fund managers believe that the negative sentiment has largely been priced in, and there is an expectation of a rebound in earnings growth, with projected EPS growth exceeding 40% for 2026 [7][8]. - The anticipated exit of external pressures and a return to focus on intrinsic growth within the industry could support a recovery in the Hang Seng Technology Index [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - Tencent Cloud is expanding its infrastructure by adding a new cloud availability zone in Frankfurt, Germany, which will increase its total to three zones in the region. This move aims to enhance its overseas market presence by leveraging a dual-driven model of "computing power infrastructure + AI PaaS tools" [2]. - WeChat has introduced a file storage optimization feature that addresses user concerns about excessive memory usage, indicating a focus on improving user experience while maintaining core social functionalities [3]. - The upcoming game "Honor of Kings World" is set to launch in April, leveraging the strong user base of its predecessor "Honor of Kings." The new game is expected to convert 3%-5% of active users from the original game, potentially generating significant revenue in its initial months [4]. - The AI assistant "Yuanbao" has gained substantial user traffic but faced challenges with inappropriate outputs during multi-turn conversations. This highlights ongoing issues with AI safety alignment and the need for further model refinement [5]. Summary by Sections Tencent Cloud - Tencent Cloud is set to launch a new cloud availability zone in Frankfurt, Germany, enhancing its infrastructure and aiming for a stronger foothold in the European market [2]. WeChat - The latest WeChat update includes a storage optimization feature that allows users to manage their storage more effectively, addressing long-standing user complaints about memory usage [3]. Gaming - "Honor of Kings World" is scheduled for release in April, with expectations of converting a portion of its predecessor's user base, potentially leading to significant revenue growth [4]. AI Developments - The AI assistant "Yuanbao" has achieved a daily active user count exceeding 50 million but has encountered issues with inappropriate content generation, indicating a need for ongoing improvements in AI model safety and performance [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. White House has restarted the review process of Tencent's gaming investments to assess potential security risks, focusing on Tencent's stakes in globally recognized gaming companies such as Epic Games, Riot Games, and Supercell [1]. Background and Core Controversy - The review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has been ongoing for several years, making it one of the longest cases under review. The main controversy revolves around whether Tencent's ownership of these gaming companies allows access to personal data of millions of U.S. users, including financial information, privacy, and game chat records. Despite Supercell being headquartered in Finland, its large U.S. user base also falls under scrutiny [3]. Key Assets Involved in the Review - Tencent's global gaming strategy is the focal point of this review, specifically involving the following key assets: - Epic Games: Tencent holds a 28% stake in this company, known for the popular game "Fortnite" [5]. - Riot Games: Tencent fully owns this company, which developed "League of Legends," one of the most popular PC games globally [6]. - Supercell: Tencent has a controlling stake in this company, known for games like "Clash of Clans," which has a vast global user base [7]. Review Progress and Potential Impact - During the Biden administration, there were internal disagreements within CFIUS, with the Department of Justice favoring forced divestment of Tencent's assets, while the Treasury Department preferred to retain the investment through data protection measures. Due to the lack of consensus, no final decision was made at that time. The Trump administration has now restarted the review, but it remains unclear whether the inclination is towards forced divestment or allowing the investment to continue. Tencent has previously engaged with CFIUS regarding mitigation measures to address security concerns [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of content going overseas, driven by policy support and AI empowerment, with a focus on high-quality content and upgraded distribution models [3][12] - The overseas revenue share for the media sector is projected to increase from 5.7% in 2019 to 10.4% by 2024, with the gaming sector's share rising from 26.6% to 38.5% during the same period [3][12] - The report highlights the significant growth in overseas revenue for short dramas, which is expected to see a year-on-year increase of 263% in 2025 [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Support and AI Empowerment - The global digital content market is expanding, with the Chinese content industry actively pursuing overseas opportunities, particularly in gaming and short dramas [3][12] - The report notes that the overseas revenue for the media sector reached 29.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 29% year-on-year increase, with an overseas revenue share of 11.64% [23][25] - The gaming sector's overseas revenue reached 21.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, growing by 30% year-on-year, with an overseas revenue share of 40.08% [26][29] 2. Focus on Gaming, Short Dramas, and Social Media - The gaming industry is expected to maintain its strong competitive edge, with innovations driving the expansion of overseas revenue [4][41] - The report indicates that the overseas short drama market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected revenue of 2.38 billion USD in 2025, reflecting a 263% year-on-year increase [4][41] - The social media market is also evolving, with AI technologies enhancing user engagement and creating new monetization opportunities [4][41] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Perfect World, Xindong Company, and Tencent Holdings, which are expected to benefit from the growth in overseas gaming revenue [4][41] - Beneficiary stocks in the short drama sector include Kuaishou-W and Reading Group, while MiniMax-WP and Kunlun Wanwei are highlighted in the social media space [4][41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [4][10] Core Insights - The report highlights a steady release of game licenses in February, indicating a continued recovery in the domestic gaming market [2][7] - The number of approved game licenses in February remains stable, with a year-on-year increase compared to February of the previous year [7] - The domestic gaming market shows signs of recovery, with notable performance in PC and cross-platform products [7] Summary by Sections License Approval - In February, a total of 152 games received approval, including 146 domestic and 6 imported games, covering several key gaming companies [7] - The approval includes various game types, with 122 being mobile games, indicating a strong focus on mobile gaming [7] Market Performance - In January 2026, the actual sales revenue of the Chinese gaming market reached 32.468 billion yuan, with a month-on-month growth of 2.99% and a year-on-year growth of 4.47% [7] - The client game segment saw a revenue of 8.236 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 7.77% and a year-on-year increase of 23.46% [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tencent, NetEase, and others, as the scale of license issuance remains stable and the domestic gaming market continues to recover [7]

Core Insights - The AIGC sector in China has entered a phase of large-scale application, with a user base of 483 million and a market penetration rate exceeding 30% as of October 2025 [1][8]. User Demographics - The primary user group for AIGC applications consists of young white-collar workers under 35 years old, predominantly located in high-tier cities, characterized by strong purchasing power and a high demand for social sharing [2][10][11]. Segment Analysis - **Language Models**: The Doubao APP leads in traffic within the language model sector, while Tencent Yuanbao has shown significant growth [3][13]. - **Intelligent Companion Chat**: The industry is experiencing sluggish growth, but the Xingye APP has achieved positive user growth [4][22]. - **Intelligent Tools**: This segment remains stable, with user traffic closely tied to platform devices [5][17]. - **Image Processing**: Jimeng AI holds a dominant position in the image processing field, with a significant lead over smaller applications [6][20]. Growth Rankings - As of October, Jimeng AI, Tencent Yuanbao, and Doubao are among the leading applications in user growth over the past ten months [7]. Overall Traffic Trends - The AIGC sector's monthly independent device count increased from 318 million to 483 million from January to October 2025, with penetration rising from 22.1% to 33.2%, indicating a shift from novelty to mainstream application [8]. User Characteristics - The user base is balanced in gender, with a significant presence of young individuals under 35, who make up nearly 50% of users, and white-collar workers accounting for 30% [11]. The "social enjoyment group" represents over 10% of the overall user demographic, highlighting the trend towards high consumption and technology engagement among younger users [11]. Segment-Specific Traffic Insights - **Language Models**: The top language model apps, including Doubao and Tencent Yuanbao, have monthly independent device counts exceeding 50 million, while smaller apps struggle to grow [13]. - **Intelligent Tools**: The user base for intelligent tools has remained stable, with a peak of 25.2 million devices in March 2025, indicating a strong foundational user base [17]. - **Image Processing**: Jimeng APP dominates the image processing sector, accounting for over 95% of the market in terms of monthly independent device count and usage metrics [20]. - **Intelligent Companion Chat**: The sector is facing declining user engagement, with only the Xingye APP showing positive growth amidst a general trend of user loss across other applications [22]. User Growth Rankings - The top 10 applications with over 100,000 users as of October 2025 include: 1. Jimeng AI (Image Processing) - 1,263.03 million devices, 394% growth 2. Tencent Yuanbao (Language Model) - 6,826.64 million devices, 385% growth 3. Doubao (Language Model) - 13,253.5 million devices, 124% growth [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 780 [1] Core Insights - Tencent's stock has declined approximately 13% year-to-date, underperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng Index, primarily due to investor concerns regarding potential industry disruption from AI and Tencent's competitive position in the AI space [1] - Despite the stock's decline, UBS believes that most downside risks are already reflected in the stock price and highlights positive developments in Tencent's AI and gaming businesses that investors may be overlooking [1] - The report emphasizes that success in the AI sector hinges on the ability to integrate high-quality models, a strong user base, and extensive data, noting that WeChat's 1.4 billion users and its diverse application scenarios provide Tencent with unique advantages that are difficult to replicate [1]

Summary of Tencent Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$4,809 billion / US$615 billion - **Current Price**: HK$518.00 (as of February 27, 2026) - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$780.00 - **YTD Stock Performance**: -13%, underperforming HSTech/HSI's -4%/+4% [1][9] Key Industry Insights - **Sector Concerns**: - Concerns regarding a potential VAT hike following issues in the telecom sector, despite denials from state media [1][9] - Increased regulatory scrutiny on internet firms, particularly food delivery platforms and Trip.com, which is not viewed as a broad sector concern [1][9] - AI disruptions and Tencent's potential lag in AI competition are highlighted as significant factors affecting stock performance [1][9] Financial Performance and Valuation - **Current Valuation**: Trading at 14x 2026E P/E, near historical lows, indicating that most downside risks are already priced in [1][10] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues for 2025E at Rmb752.8 billion, with a growth trajectory leading to Rmb1,081.9 billion by 2029E [6][28] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected to grow from Rmb28.44 in 2025E to Rmb44.18 by 2029E [6][28] - **Profit Margins**: Consensus expects flattish margins for 2026, but management's ROI-focused investment strategy may mitigate concerns [3][20] AI Initiatives - **Competitive Edge**: Tencent's Weixin platform has a user base of 1.4 billion, providing a robust foundation for AI integration [2][17] - **AI Model Development**: Tencent is focusing on enhancing its proprietary AI model capabilities and has recruited top AI experts [2][18] - **Agentic AI Potential**: The integration of social and transactional platforms through OpenClaw is expected to capitalize on the Weixin ecosystem [2][18] Gaming Sector Performance - **Top Titles**: Tencent games hold 8 of the top 10 domestic titles in China, with "Honor of Kings" and "PeaceKeeper Elite" leading the rankings [7][21] - **Emerging Titles**: Anticipated growth from new titles like "Delta Force" and "Valorant Mobile," expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth in 2026 [7][24] - **User Engagement**: "PeaceKeeper Elite" achieved a record-breaking DAU of 90 million on CNY Eve, indicating strong user engagement [7][21][22] Future Outlook - **Catalysts for Growth**: Upcoming updates on AI strategy and stronger-than-expected gaming performance are seen as potential catalysts for share price appreciation [8][10] - **Investment Recommendation**: Tencent is reiterated as a Key Call and top pick in the sector, with a target price implying a 21x 2026E P/E [8][10] Additional Financial Metrics - **Net Debt to EBITDA**: Not meaningful (NM) for 2025E [6][28] - **Dividend Payout**: Expected to increase from Rmb5.49 in 2025E to Rmb8.53 by 2029E [6][28] - **Free Cash Flow Yield**: Projected to rise from 5.7% in 2025E to 9.2% by 2029E [6][28] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting Tencent's current market position, financial outlook, AI initiatives, and gaming performance, while also addressing potential risks and growth catalysts.