AI 驱动广告 eCPM 攀升，期待王者 IP 贡献 游戏增量 ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）25Q3 点评 腾讯控股 00700.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年11月14日） | 641 港元 | | 目标价格 | 664.22 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 683/361.64 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 914,477/914,477 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | 5,861,798 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 11 月 18 日 | ⚫ 我们预期游戏、广告增速提升比预期持续性更长，期待《王者荣耀世界》（定档春 季）、《粒粒的小人国》等头部游戏贡献 26 年增量。预计 25~27 年 IFRS 归母净利 润为 2260/2611/2970 亿元（25~27 年原值为 2231/2577/2970 亿元，因根据财报调 整游戏、广告、支付等假设，我们调整盈利预测）。采用 SOTP 估值，给予对应目 标价 664.22 港币（605. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [3][39] Core Views - The company continues to release strong performance and possesses significant business barriers. The integration of AI is enhancing the company's gaming and advertising business, leading to continuous breakthroughs in models and applications [3][39] - The overall ecosystem of the company remains robust, with revenue growth in online gaming, social platforms, advertising, and fintech [3][39] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 188.8 billion yuan. Non-IFRS net profit reached 70.6 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, also surpassing expectations [9][14] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 56%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [36] 1.1 Online Gaming Revenue - Q3 2025 online gaming revenue was 63.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%. Domestic gaming revenue was 42.8 billion yuan, up 15%, exceeding expectations [19][20] 1.2 Social Network Revenue - Q3 2025 social network revenue was 32.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, driven by growth in mini-game platform service fees and paid membership revenues [23] 1.3 Advertising Revenue - Q3 2025 advertising revenue was 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, benefiting from increased ad exposure and AI-driven improvements in ad effectiveness [25] 1.4 Fintech and Enterprise Services Revenue - Q3 2025 fintech and enterprise services revenue was 58.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, supported by growth in consumer loan services and business payment activities [27] 2. User Engagement Metrics - The combined monthly active users (MAU) of WeChat reached 400 million, a year-on-year increase of 2%. QQ's mobile MAU was 517 million, down 8% year-on-year [30] 3. Margin Improvements - All business segments saw improvements in gross margins, with the advertising business achieving a gross margin of 57%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [36] 4. AI Investment Impact - Increased investment in AI has led to higher sales and management expenses, with sales expenses rising to 11.5 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year [37] 5. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 255.5 billion yuan, 285.8 billion yuan, and 318.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 19, and 17 times [39]

为了攻克这一难题， 腾讯内容算法中心 联合清华大学， 近期提出 ReSeek 框架，它不是对 RAG 的简单改进，而是对 Search Agent 核心逻辑的一次重塑。 ReSeek 的关键在于引入了动态自我修正机制，允许智能体在执行过程中主动评估每一步行动的有效性。一旦发现路径无效或信息错误，它就能及时回溯并探索新 的可能性，从而避免「一条路走到黑」。 为了同时解决 知识的实时性和推理的复杂性 这两大挑战，搜索智能体（Search Agent）应运而生。它与 RAG 的核心区别在于，Search Agent 能够通过与实时搜索 引擎进行多轮交互来分解并执行复杂任务。这种能力在人物画像构建，偏好搜索等任务中至关重要，因为它能模拟人类专家进行深度、实时的资料挖掘。 但 Search Agent 经常面临着一个棘手的瓶颈： 缺乏过程中的自我纠错能力。 现有的智能体一旦在推理早期因一个模糊的查询而走上错误的路径，就会基于这个错 误结果继续执行，引发连锁式错误（Cascading Errors），最终导致整个任务失败。 论文地址：https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.00568 开源模型及数据集地址： ...

Group 1 - The gaming sector experienced a morning surge on November 18, with the gaming ETF (159869) rising over 1%, indicating a positive market sentiment towards leading A-share gaming companies [1] - As of November 17, the gaming ETF (159869) had a product scale of 11.242 billion yuan, facilitating investors' access to top gaming stocks in the A-share market [1] - Tencent reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 13, with total revenue from its online gaming business reaching 63.6 billion yuan, driven by a 43% year-on-year increase in international market revenue, which surpassed 20.8 billion yuan for the first time [1] Group 2 - According to a report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the gaming industry is entering a new content cycle supported by favorable policies, which is expected to accelerate the development of the cultural industry [1] - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the importance of cultural prosperity as a hallmark of Chinese modernization, advocating for a conducive cultural ecosystem and enhanced original content creation across various cultural sectors [1] - The gaming industry has demonstrated its potential during the policy-friendly period, with a noticeable recovery in supply-side dynamics and an increase in content richness, contributing to the resilience of gaming companies' fundamentals [1]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (00728) at 72.14%, COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) at 69.18%, and GCL-Poly Energy (01330) at 69.09% [1][2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Pop Mart (09992), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +34.20 billion, +12.67 billion, and +11.24 billion respectively [1][2] - The largest decreases in holding amounts were observed in the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) at -58.33 billion, Alibaba Group-W (09988) at -40.89 billion, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (02828) at -18.98 billion [1][3] Group 1: Top Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding ratio of 72.14% with 10.013 billion shares [2] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has a holding ratio of 69.18% with 0.897 billion shares [2] - GCL-Poly Energy (01330) has a holding ratio of 69.09% with 0.279 billion shares [2] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) increased by +34.20 billion with a change of +81.51 million shares [2] - Pop Mart (09992) increased by +12.67 billion with a change of +5.83 million shares [2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) increased by +11.24 billion with a change of +172.61 million shares [2] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) decreased by -58.33 billion with a change of -219.93 million shares [3] - Alibaba Group-W (09988) decreased by -40.89 billion with a change of -26.39 million shares [3] - Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (02828) decreased by -18.98 billion with a change of -19.89 million shares [3]

智通财经APP获悉，11月13日,阿里巴巴-W（09988）、小米集团-W（01810）、华润万象生活 （01209）南向资金净流入金额位列市场前三，分别净流入13.15 亿、7.77 亿、6.71 亿 盈富基金（02800）、恒生中国企业（02828）、腾讯控股（00700）南向资金净流出金额位列市场前 三，分别净流出-62.19 亿、-22.83 亿、-8.78 亿 在净流出比方面，中集集团（02039）、绿城管理控股（09979）、361度（01361） 以-59.72%、-56.62%、-56.52%位列市场前三。 | 股票名称 | 净流入比↓ | 净流入(元) | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 南方港美科技(03442) | 88.11% | 1.10 亿 | 9.435（+0.05%） | | 南方东西精选(03441) | 74.90% | 1930.75 万 | 10.580（-0.47%） | | 至源控股(00990) | 62.95% | 1787.74 万 | 0.760（+1.33%） | | 深圳高速公路股份 | 60.48% | 645.88 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,202.97, down by 181.31 points or 0.69% on November 17 [1] - The index's trading volume was 57.9075 million, with a daily average price of 26,284.82 [1] - The 52-week high for the index was 27,275.90, while the low was 18,856.77 [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Most large-cap stocks experienced declines, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 110.738, down 1.21% from the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 629.180, down 1.15% from the Hong Kong close [2] Stock Price Movements - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a decrease of HKD 4.500, or 0.70%, with an ADR price of HKD 629.180, which is HKD 7.320 lower than its Hong Kong stock price [3] - HSBC Holdings (00005) dropped by HKD 0.800, or 0.71%, with an ADR price of HKD 110.738, which is HKD 1.362 lower than its Hong Kong stock price [3] - Other notable declines included AIA Group (01299) down by 1.28% and China Construction Bank (00939) down by 1.32% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent reported a revenue of 192.9 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.4%, driven primarily by advertising and gaming businesses [1][4] Revenue Growth - The company's network gaming revenue reached 63.6 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, with domestic market revenue increasing by 15% to 42.8 billion yuan and international market revenue growing by 43% to 20.8 billion yuan [2][6] - Marketing services revenue grew to 36.2 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, benefiting from eCPM price growth and enhanced user engagement [2][6] Profitability - Adjusted operating profit for Q3 2025 was 72.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, with a comprehensive gross margin of 56%, up 3 percentage points [1][4] - The gross margins for value-added services, online advertising, and financial technology & enterprise services improved by 4 percentage points each [1][4] Investment in R&D - R&D expenses reached a record high of 22.8 billion yuan, a 28% year-on-year increase, indicating the company's commitment to AI talent and technology [1][4] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (Capex) for Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year, primarily due to chip supply constraints [1][4] Future Outlook - The company maintains a "better than market" rating, with projected adjusted net profits of 262.6 billion yuan, 301.3 billion yuan, and 345.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a slight upward revision [7]

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 results with revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%, exceeding consensus expectations of 188.8 billion yuan [1] - Gross profit reached 108.8 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, also above the consensus estimate of 106.4 billion yuan [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 70.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase, surpassing the consensus forecast of 66 billion yuan [1] Business Segments Summary Online Gaming - Q3 2025 revenue from online gaming was 63.6 billion yuan, exceeding the consensus estimate of 60.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23% [1] - Domestic revenue grew 15% to 42.8 billion yuan, driven by the success of "Delta Operation" launched in September 2024, along with revenue growth from established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [1] - International gaming revenue surged 43% to 20.8 billion yuan, supported by growth from Supercell games and the recent acquisition of a game studio [1] Social Networking - Q3 2025 revenue from social networking was 32.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, slightly below the consensus estimate of 32.8 billion yuan [2] - Growth was primarily driven by increases in music subscription services, video live streaming, and mini-game platform service fees [2] - Tencent Music's online music subscription business performed well, with paid users rising to 125.7 million, a 5.6% year-on-year increase [2] Marketing Services - Q3 2025 revenue from marketing services was 36.2 billion yuan, exceeding the consensus estimate of 35.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21% [2] - Growth was attributed to increased ad exposure, improved user engagement, and AI-driven optimization of ad placements [2] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Q3 2025 revenue from financial technology and enterprise services was 58.2 billion yuan, slightly above the consensus estimate of 58.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [2] - Financial technology revenue saw modest growth driven by commercial payments and consumer loans, while enterprise services benefited from increased demand for AI-related services [2] Operational Performance and Profitability - The company achieved a gross profit of 108.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 23% year-on-year increase, supported by high-margin businesses and improved cost efficiency in cloud services [3] - Gross margin reached 56.4%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 70.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18% [3] AI Developments - The company is actively expanding its AI capabilities across various sectors, including enhancing AI features in WeChat and integrating AI into enterprise WeChat [4] - AI is being utilized in game content creation and marketing strategies for popular titles [4] - The company is also enhancing AI applications in advertising, particularly in product recommendations and ad placement systems [4] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "strong buy" investment rating, supported by robust core business performance and significant improvements in AI-driven efficiencies across various business lines [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are expected to reach 753.5 billion, 832.5 billion, and 907.7 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 260.2 billion, 293.6 billion, and 325.4 billion yuan respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings reported Q3 2025 revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 2% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 70.6 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, surpassing consensus expectations by 7% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Gross profit growth rate (22%) outpaced adjusted operating profit growth (18%) and adjusted net profit growth (18%), while revenue growth was at 15% [1] - Revenue from value-added services and advertising exceeded expectations, with significant contributions from overseas gaming [1] - International and domestic game revenues grew by 43% and 15% year-on-year, respectively, with domestic game revenue maintaining a high level at 42.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Advertising and AI Integration - Advertising revenue grew by 21% year-on-year, driven by improved loading rates and AI-driven eCPM enhancements [2] - The launch of the intelligent advertising product matrix, Tencent Advertising AIM+, contributed to revenue growth [2] - Financial technology services revenue increased by 10%, supported by growth in commercial payments and consumer loan services [2] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and AI Development - Capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, accounting for 6.7% of revenue, with a total of 59.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing 10.7% of revenue [2] - Market pricing for Tencent's AI capabilities is considered insufficient, with advancements in complex reasoning and image generation models [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 260.2 billion, 300.7 billion, and 337.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The target price based on the SOTP valuation method is set at 791 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 23.4% [3]