Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [7][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights solid revenue growth driven by AI investments, with Tencent expected to leverage its position as the largest social media platform to enhance its value through AI [3][48]. - For FY25 Q4, Tencent reported revenue of RMB 194.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 64.7 billion, up 17.0% year-on-year [48]. - The report projects Tencent's revenue for 2026-2028 to be RMB 830.2 billion, RMB 901.3 billion, and RMB 974.4 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 277.2 billion, RMB 303.4 billion, and RMB 333.4 billion [48]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast (in million RMB)**: - 2024A: 660,257 - 2025A: 751,766 - 2026E: 830,224 - 2027E: 901,271 - 2028E: 974,440 - Year-on-year growth rates: 8.4%, 13.9%, 10.4%, 8.6%, 8.1% [5]. - **Adjusted Net Profit Forecast (in million RMB)**: - 2024A: 222,703 - 2025A: 259,626 - 2026E: 277,153 - 2027E: 303,380 - 2028E: 333,417 - Year-on-year growth rates: 41.2%, 16.6%, 6.8%, 9.5%, 9.9% [5]. - **Adjusted Net Profit Margin**: - 2024A: 33.7% - 2025A: 34.5% - 2026E: 33.4% - 2027E: 33.7% - 2028E: 34.2% [5]. Segment Performance - **Value-Added Services**: Revenue reached RMB 899 billion in FY25 Q4, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, with domestic and overseas game revenues growing by 15.1% and 31.9%, respectively [48]. - **Marketing Services**: Revenue of RMB 411 billion in FY25 Q4, up 17.5% year-on-year, driven by AI-enhanced advertising capabilities [48]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue increased by 8.4% year-on-year, supported by growth in cloud services and WeChat store transactions [48]. Operational Data - The integration of AI into Tencent's social ecosystem is expected to drive healthy growth, with WeChat's monthly active users (MAU) showing a slight increase of 0.3% [41][42]. - The report notes a significant increase in R&D spending, which reached RMB 238 billion in FY25 Q4, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase [19][48].

Token需求爆炸式增长，云厂商纷纷提价。 2026年，全球云计算行业延续近二十年的"只降不升"定价惯例被集体打破。 1月，AWS率先 对GPU训练 实例 上调约15%，谷歌云随即宣布数据传输服务最高涨价100%。 3月，国内云厂商密集跟进，腾讯云率先上调自研大模型价格，涨幅最高达463%；阿 里云与百度智能云于本周宣布AI算力及存储产品涨价，最高涨幅34%。 这一切均将原因指向" 全球AI需求爆发、核心硬件成本 显著上涨" 。 这一轮云厂商涨价潮，表面上是成本传导，本质上是： 算力在当下正 在从基础设施变成稀缺资源。 过去几年，AI创业者习惯了一个相对宽松的算力环境，价格持续下行，资源随取随用。但 在2026年的当下，这个前提正在悄然失效。 超大规模云服务商的集群资源被牢牢锁定，小 型团队几乎无从批量获取 。 云服务厂商2026年数据中心资本支出预期较一年前大幅增长甚至翻倍，仍被市场认为"不 够用"。 这不是周期性的供需波动，而是结构性的产能短缺 。 锦 秋基金认为： 2026年当算力从"成本项"变成"战略资源"，它就不再只是财务决策，也关乎产品节奏、商 业模式乃至公司生死的核心变量。 谁能在正确的时间窗口 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [7][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights solid revenue growth driven by AI investments, with Tencent expected to achieve revenues of 830.2 billion, 901.3 billion, and 974.4 billion RMB for the years 2026 to 2028, respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 277.2 billion, 303.4 billion, and 333.4 billion RMB for the same years [48]. - The fourth quarter of FY25 saw Tencent's revenue reach 194.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with adjusted net profit rising by 17.0% to 64.7 billion RMB [48]. - The report emphasizes the integration of AI into Tencent's advertising technology and social ecosystem, enhancing user engagement and driving revenue growth across various segments [3][41]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts (Million RMB)**: - 2024A: 660,257 - 2025A: 751,766 - 2026E: 830,224 - 2027E: 901,271 - 2028E: 974,440 - Revenue growth rates are projected at 8.4%, 13.9%, 10.4%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively [5]. - **Adjusted Net Profit Forecasts (Million RMB)**: - 2024A: 222,703 - 2025A: 259,626 - 2026E: 277,153 - 2027E: 303,380 - 2028E: 333,417 - Adjusted net profit growth rates are 41.2%, 16.6%, 6.8%, 9.5%, and 9.9% respectively [5]. - **Adjusted Net Profit Margin**: - 2024A: 33.7% - 2025A: 34.5% - 2026E: 33.4% - 2027E: 33.7% - 2028E: 34.2% [5]. Segment Performance - **Value-Added Services**: Revenue increased by 13.8% year-on-year to 899 billion RMB in Q4, with domestic and overseas game revenues growing by 15.1% and 31.9%, respectively [28][36]. - **Marketing Services**: Revenue rose by 17.5% year-on-year to 411 billion RMB, benefiting from AI-driven advertising capabilities [32]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue grew by 8.4% year-on-year, driven by increased cloud service revenues and expanded transaction volumes in WeChat stores [39]. Operational Data - The report notes that WeChat's monthly active users (MAU) increased by 0.3% in Q4, while QQ's mobile MAU decreased by 1.7% [42]. - The number of paid users for value-added services increased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter [46]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - The report suggests that Tencent, as the largest social media traffic entry point, is well-positioned to leverage AI to reconstruct platform value. The estimated reasonable valuation for the stock is 621 HKD per share based on an 18x PE ratio for 2026 [48][49].

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月20日 腾讯控股（00700.HK） 优于大市 AI 方面积极投入，关注模型能力提升 总览：收入同比增长 13%，经调整利润同比增长 17%。25Q4，腾讯营收 1944 亿元，同比增长 13%。主要增长由广告和游戏业务贡献。收入组合变动 和经营杠杆带动利润增长 17%。经调整经营利润 25Q4 为 695 亿元，同比 增长 17%。Non-IFRS 归母净利润 646.9 亿元，同比增长 17%；经营利润 率提升主要来自于收入组合中高毛利率业务占比提升，各项业务高质量 发展。2025Q4，公司综合毛利率 56%，同比提升 3pct。其中，增值服务 /网络广告/金融科技与企业服务毛利率同比提升 4pct/2pct/4pct。管理 研发费率 18.7%，同比上升 0.5pct，研发支出费用 25Q4 同比增长 29% 至 238 亿元，体现公司在 AI 方面人才等方面的积极储备。 公司在 AI 方面积极投入，前期投入为后续发展蓄能。2025Q4，公司在混元 与元宝两大核心 AI 产品上的投入为 70 亿元人民币，全年投入 180 亿元 人民币（仅包含混元与元宝，不包括支持现有产 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨腾讯控股（00700.HK） [Table_Title] 腾讯 25Q4 业绩点评：核心业务增长稳健，AI 投 入成效显现 [Table_Author] 高超 杨云祺 SAC：S0490516080001 SAC：S0490524090002 SFC：BUX177 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 腾讯 25Q4 实现收入 1944 亿元（同比+13%/环比+1%）；实现经营盈利 603 亿元（同比+17%）； Non-IFRS 归母净利润 647 亿元（同比+17%）。收入端：1）游戏增长强劲，海外游戏流水规模 再创新高；2）AI 能力优化+微信闭环营销能力扩展带动广告维持中高速增长；3）AI 带动云服 务收入增长提速并实现规模化盈利。腾讯 AI 战略全面提速，体系化拥抱智能体时代，研发投入 创新高，盈利能力保持强劲，盈利质量持续提升，继续看好公司未来的成长性和在 AI 时代的发 展潜力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_scodeM ...

导读： 一众豪华产业LP，齐聚一堂。 作者｜黄蓉 2026年，一级市场正迎来新一轮活跃信号。 回望数据端，机构LP出资活跃度一路上升，为行业注入切实的暖意。与此同时，伴随着政策与科 技浪潮催生出新的机遇，不仅点燃了新资金的兴趣，更吸引了一批曾淡出视野的"老LP们"悄然回 流。 日前，一级市场多位老朋友以LP身份回归——腾讯、泡泡玛特、唯品会齐聚一堂。 豪华LP齐聚 其中，腾讯通过深圳市腾讯产业投资基金出资4亿元，持有9.99%的认缴比例。此外，宁德时代、 伊泰煤炭与洛阳钼业旗下公司均出资5亿人民币，持有基金12.497%的认缴比例。唯品会认缴出 资3亿元，泡泡玛特认缴出资1亿元。除了产业资本外，宁波金投控股集团、北京国管系等地方国 资均参与出资，国泰海通系也在出资名单中。 作为创投圈的老朋友， 腾讯曾 以LP身份在一级市场持续加码。过去十余年间，腾讯频频出手， 相继投资了红杉中国、高瓴、 顺为资本、钟鼎资本、 金沙江创投、真格基金、青松基金、高榕资 本等一众知名投资机构。 随后几年，伴随着多重因素影响，腾讯等一众互联网巨头逐渐淡出创投圈，鲜少以LP身份布局。 值得关注的是，2025年起，腾讯逐步回归。 据我们 ...

腾讯控股(00700):降目标价至700港元,转向以AI新产品为主导投资阶段 高盛发布研报称，维持腾讯控股(512,-38.50,-6.99%)(00700)"买入"评级，惟将目标价由752港元下调 至700港元，对其游戏业务估值降至预测市盈率21倍(此前为24倍)。 腾讯旗下人工智能发展为游戏和广告业务带来稳健的增长前景，不过，公司明显转向以AI新产品为主导的 投资阶段，并预告回购规模将同比有所收窄，因此该行将公司今年经调整净利润同比增长预测由10%降至7%。 该行表示，虽然腾讯短期内的利润增长放缓，但相信随着公司的AI发展，及未来3至6个月即将推出微信AI 助理，和基于WeChat/WeCom的Claw-agent等关键产品推进，公司估值有望修复。 美国高盛 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Tencent Holdings, with a target price revised down from HKD 735 to HKD 650 [1] Core Insights - Tencent is increasing its investments in foundational models, new AI products, and GPUs, which may pressure profit margins in the short term but are expected to create new opportunities in the long run [1] - Revenue is projected to grow by 10.8% year-on-year by 2026, with non-IFRS operating profit expected to increase by 5% [1] - Key focus areas include the launch of Mix Yuan 3.0 in April, and the application of agent-based AI in WeChat, the desktop intelligent workspace WorkBuddy, and the WeChat office AI assistant Qclaw [1] - The report suggests that AI is likely to present new opportunities for Tencent, which maintains resilience due to strong network effects, value chain positioning, and regulatory barriers [1] - Tencent is prioritizing new AI capabilities and products to unlock incremental growth and enhance the differentiation of its core business [1] - AI investments are expected to significantly increase, with Tencent projected to invest RMB 18 billion in new AI products in 2025, and this amount is anticipated to more than double in 2026 [1] - These upfront AI investments may lead to profit margin pressure, resulting in slower profit growth compared to revenue growth in 2026 [1]

另外，公司披露对AI人才、产品及基础设施的再投资力度加大，意味着短期市场讨论可能从腾讯的AI开支 是否具有生产力，转向管理层选择将多少由此产生的收益进行再投资，而非将成果流向盈利。整体而言，相较 于推动短期盈利预测上调，该行认为业绩更能增强对公司长远前景的信心。 摩根大通 摩根大通发布研报称，预期腾讯控股(512,-38.50,-6.99%)（00700）2025年第四季度业绩将令投资者看法 更趋正面。该行认为，是次业绩的关键信息不单止是核心业务维持稳健，更在于AI已在广告、游戏及云端业务 展现具体商业价值，同时集团继续受惠于业务组合改善及现金流韧性。现予目标价750港元及"增持"评级。 腾讯控股(00700):业绩反映AI展现具体商业价值,目标价750港元 ...

文：蔚蓝 编辑：宋政 阿里铺路，腾讯种树——谁能在AI时代的终点，最先等到花开？ 3月18日，阿里云突然官宣AI算力、存储产品调价，平头哥算力卡最高涨幅34%，打响国内云厂商算力定价升级第一枪；几乎同期，腾讯旗下"龙虾"AI智能体开启大 范围公测，深度嵌入微信生态，靠场景渗透抢滩落地。一边是砸钱做基建、靠算力收租，一边是稳现金流、靠生态分账，阿里腾讯两条路线彻底走向分化。 阿里巴巴：全栈押注，重构AI时代"水电煤" 财务数据与短期承压 根据阿里巴巴最新发布的2026财年第三季度（截至2025年12月31日）财报， 集团收入达2848.43亿元，同比增长2% ；若不考虑高鑫零售和银泰已处置业务，同口径 收入同比增长9%。 云智能集团本季度收入同比增长36%至432.84亿元 ， AI相关产品收入连续第十个季度实现三位数增长 。值得注意的是，平头哥自研GPU芯片首 次写入财报，截至2026年2月已累计规模化交付47万片，其中60%以上服务于外部商业化客户。本季度自由现金流为113.46亿元，同比下降71%，主要由于对即时零售 和AI基础设施的持续投入。 过去四个季度，阿里在AI+云基础设施的资本开支累计约 120 ...