Q&A 在当前港股及恒生科技指数大幅回调的背景下，应如何评估腾讯控股的投资价 值及其股价的支撑位？ 再论推荐腾讯控股的核心逻辑？20260313 摘要 腾讯估值接近历史底部，2026 年预测 PE 约 14.5 倍，距历史极值仅 13%空间，具备极强防御属性。 未来三年预期收入 CAGR 9%、利润 CAGR 11%，叠加年均千亿回购与 分红，综合回报率约 15%。 游戏业务 2026 年预期增速 14%，核心增量来自《三角洲行动》及年流 水百亿级重磅新品《王者荣耀世界》。 广告业务维持 20%增长中枢，视频号红利与 AI 算法优化各贡献约一半 增量，AI 驱动逻辑对标 Meta。 金融科技业务随消费复苏提速，线下支付贡献 80%利润；AI 投入对利润 影响受控，折旧压力较小。 AI 战略采取"后发制人"，QClaw 等应用主打低门槛及 C 端生态打通， AI 赋能现有业务 EPS 增长而非纯叙事。 短期催化剂包括 3 月 18 日财报发布、回购重启、资本开支指引上调及 重磅游戏定档，目标 PE 20 倍。 从未来三年的财务预期来看，腾讯控股的业绩增长前景、股东回报策略以及整 体资产定性如何？ 展望未来三年， ...

我真的强烈建议，所有在电脑上装了 腾讯电脑管家 的小伙伴，都去把这个龙虾管家给打开。 我说真的，OpenClaw的安全这个事，实在是太太太适合安全软件来做了，而且非常适合 腾讯电脑管家 ，毕竟我是十几年的老用户，相比另一个产品， 它的口碑，真的已经相当好了。 最大的诱导，其实也就是在你安装的时候，给你打个小勾，问你要不要再装个元宝。。。 我上周五其实就给大家推了一个能在你装各种Skills之前进行一波安全筛查的Skills： 所有用OpenClaw的朋友，我都劝你先装上这个能保命的Skill。 而现在，这个腾讯的龙虾管家，不仅把Skills保护给直接封装了，并且脚本、端口、文件保护全都做了。 有一说一，这个东西，对有所有玩OpenClaw的小伙伴和普通用户来说，绝对是最省心和最一步到位了。 腾讯这一波，真的把小龙虾的红利吃满了。 在引爆了OpenClaw热度，顺势推出了一系列小龙虾之后，现在，第一个专为OpenClaw打造的小龙虾安全管家，也来了。 这个龙虾管家，是放在 腾讯电脑管家 里面的一个功能。 之所以发现他们这个东西呢，起因是周末，我久违了的打开了我的Windows电脑。 真的，自从Codex和小龙虾 ...

Group 1 - Haier and other companies have responded to being named in the CCTV "3.15" gala, with Haier expressing apologies and confirming compliance with national standards by limiting electric vehicle speeds to 25 km/h [3] - Apple announced a reduction in the commission rate for its App Store in China, lowering the standard rate from 30% to 25% and for eligible small developers from 15% to 12% [3] - Meta plans to conduct large-scale layoffs involving 20% or more of its workforce to offset high AI infrastructure costs and has delayed the release of its AI model "Avocado" due to performance issues compared to competitors [4] Group 2 - Tencent Cloud will provide free installation and deployment services for its products across 17 cities in China over the next 40 days [7] - Didi's core platform is projected to see a 13.5% year-on-year increase in order volume by Q4 2025, reaching 4.844 billion orders, with a total transaction value of 123.8 billion yuan [8] - China Power Construction signed a contract for a nickel mining project in Indonesia worth approximately 54.56 billion yuan, with a contract duration of 60 months [8] Group 3 - Amazon has partnered with AI chip startup Cerebras Systems to enhance AI computing efficiency and accelerate the development of various AI applications [11] - Nvidia's GTC 2026 technology conference will focus on AI factories and the next-generation M10 chip, with supply chain implications for related industries [11] - Tesla's CEO announced the launch of the AI chip super factory Terafab, aiming for an annual production capacity of 100 to 200 billion chips [11] Group 4 - Samsung has raised foundry fees and is developing new HBM4E memory using a 2nm process, which is ahead of the industry standard [14] - Toyota's new RAV4 model has been launched, but market feedback is cautious regarding its sales without price incentives [15] - Japan Post has agreed to acquire a Norwegian shipping company to strengthen its global network and expand its participation in niche markets [15]

1.【龙虾创始人官宣！腾讯正式成为OpenClaw赞助商】3月15日，OpenClaw（龙虾）创始人 PeterSteinberger转发腾讯成为OpenClaw赞助商的帖子，并表示"loveagoodredemptionarc"。网 友JenZhu发帖表示，"正如预期，腾讯云与腾讯AI现在正式成为OpenClaw社区赞助商。希望更多项 目能支持开源项目，让人工智能工具对所有人开放。"相关信息已同步在GitHub平台公示，腾讯轻量 云出现在赞助商列表中。（大象新闻） 2.【商家用AI图冒充实拍被判退一赔三】广东广州钟女士在某购物平台网店买了两件上衣，共花费 411元。下单前，钟女士特意向商家确认，商品的宣传图片是否是实物拍摄，商家给出肯定答复。但 钟女士收到货后，却发现货不对板，钟女士到法院起诉该商家。法院审理查明，该商家商品详情页中 的所有图片，均由AI技术生成，且未作任何标注或说明，还在消费者询问时，故意虚假陈述。最终， 法院判决商家"退一赔三"。据介绍，2025年，广州全市法院共受理各类消费纠纷3.7万余件，直播电 商、线上培训、网络游戏等数字消费、新兴服务消费领域的纠纷增长较快。（央视财经） 3.【M ...

【315曝光名单 】 3月15日，央视315晚会聚焦食品安全、公共安全、金融安全和广告市场等多个消 费侵权乱象。 1、漂白鸡爪问题，食品加工车间里，泡制区、修剪区、挑选区臭气弥漫，刺鼻的腥臭味让人作呕， 生产环境脏乱不堪，完全无视食品卫生安全 。还 将国家明令禁止用于鸡爪加工的过氧化氢（双氧 水），非法用来漂白增白、掩盖变质、牟取暴利。 涉及企业：蜀福香 、明扬食品、曾巧食品、金山 制药、亿丰电子新材料 完整早报音频，请点击标题下方小耳机收听 2、央视315晚会曝光，外泌体在医疗界和学术界，其作用机理、临床测试等多项医学程序上，尚不 能明确。但在市场上已经大量套证生产、违规添加、违规销售，在医美行业广泛滥用，导致诸多消费 者受到身体伤害。涉及企业：灏麟（天津）生物科技有限公司、源创基因科技有限公司、婕波噻尔生 物科技有限公司 3、多位消费者投诉增高骗局。记者调查发现，"安立身青少年物理增高"等多家机构以签约保障、无 效退款吸引家长，实则利用孩子自然生长规律欺骗消费者；德脊瑞不仅针对青少年欺诈，还宣称能让 骨骺线闭合的成年人增高；英瑞可负责人宣称可"闭合增高"，方案包含玄学，却无科学依据和医学支 撑。目前，此类 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [24]. Core Insights - Oracle's Q3 FY26 performance was strong, with total revenue reaching $17.2 billion, a 22% increase year-over-year in USD terms, and an 18% increase at constant exchange rates. Cloud revenue was $8.9 billion, growing 44% in USD terms and 41% at constant exchange rates [3][6]. - The launch of the "Lobster" products by Zhipu and Tencent is expected to drive sustained high demand for AI computing power, transitioning AI from dialogue interaction to autonomous execution, thus opening up commercial monetization opportunities for large models [10][12]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of domestic large models in China, which are expected to enhance their usability and accelerate their application across various industries [20]. Summary by Sections Oracle's Q3 FY26 Performance - Oracle achieved a total revenue of $17.2 billion in Q3 FY26, with a 22% year-over-year increase in USD terms and an 18% increase at constant exchange rates. Cloud business revenue reached $8.9 billion, growing 44% in USD terms and 41% at constant exchange rates. Non-GAAP operating profit was $7.4 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, and Non-GAAP net profit was $5.2 billion, a 23% increase [3][6][8]. AI Computing Power Demand - The rapid adoption of the Lobster (OpenClaw) AI agents is expected to create a continuous high demand for AI computing power. The features of these products will lead to exponential growth in token consumption, further driving the demand for computing resources [10][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI computing power companies such as Haiguang Information, Longxin Zhongke, and Inspur Information, among others. For AI algorithms and applications, strong recommendations include Hengsheng Electronics and Zhongke Chuangda [20].

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 如祺出行（09680.HK） 三角协同构筑商业闭环，开放平台加速 L4 落 地 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,161 | 2,463 | 5,323 | 10,478 | 15,796 | | 同比(%) | 57.93 | 13.99 | 116.10 | 96.84 | 50.74 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (692.79) | (564.18) | (305.23) | (200.88) | 20.42 | | 同比(%) | (10.53) | 18.56 | 45.90 | 34.19 | 110.17 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (3.39) | (2.76) | (1.50) | (0.98) | 0.10 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | (2.25) | (2.76) | (5.10) | (7.7 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Tencent has launched a tiered "Lobster" product matrix, promoting OpenClaw as a universal application. This series targets different user groups, creating a complete intelligent ecosystem that includes WorkBuddy for general users, QClaw for remote control via WeChat, and Tencent Cloud Lighthouse for enterprise users [2][20] - Apple has reduced its App Store commission rate in mainland China for the first time in six years, lowering the standard rate from 30% to 25% and the small business plan rate from 15% to 12%. This adjustment reflects a balance of interests between platforms and developers, particularly benefiting small developers and the mini-program ecosystem [3][21] - The rapid development of AI applications, combined with a recovery in entertainment consumption, presents investment opportunities in several areas: leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the gaming industry, and the film and cultural tourism sectors. Beneficiaries include Tencent, Alibaba, and several other companies [6][22] Market Overview - During the 11th week of 2026 (March 9-13), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.19% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.51%. The SW Media Index dropped by 3.23%, ranking 26th among 31 industries [1][11] - In the sub-industries, advertising and marketing, film, and broadcasting were the top performers, with increases of 0.99% and 0.54%, while broadcasting saw a decline of 1.45% [1][11] Sub-Industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week were "Fast Life 3" with 64.015 million yuan (35.20% market share), "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert" with 35.836 million yuan (19.70%), and "Silent Awakening" with 32.181 million yuan (17.70%) [23][24] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Delta Force," while the top three Android games were "Heart Town," "Diver Dave," and "Goose Duck Kill" [25][26] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index were "Love in the Pure Age" (80.9), "Zhu Yu" (80.2), and "My Mountain and Sea" (77.5) [27][28] Variety and Animation - The top variety show was "The Universe Sparkles, Please Pay Attention" with a broadcast index of 67.2, followed by "Hello Saturday 2026" and "Now Departing Season 3" [29][30] - The top three animated shows were "Beyond Time" (270.8), "Cang Yuan Tu" (237.4), and "Xian Ni" (237.1) [31]

、 本周观点 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店，茶饮品牌亦有所布局；整体咖啡 行业价格竞争趋缓，阿拉比卡咖啡期货价格持续下跌，后续有望带来成本改善。2）茶饮：略有承压；4 月起受去 年外卖补贴影响基数逐步提高，近期平台补贴力度逐步收窄，关注数据波动风险。 电商：持续承压。受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商基本面表现平淡。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放。 腾讯音乐已推出"鹅票票"购票平台，成为继猫眼、大麦后的又一票务新玩家。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：宏观波动，加密市场催化有限，币价承压。本周美 CFTC 主席表示将发布预测市场明 确指导意见以防止操纵和内幕交易；美 CFTC 就预测市场相关拟议规则制定预先通知征求公众意见；美 SEC 主席 表示预计很快将推出一项针对股权证券代币化的创新豁免。本周富途控股发布 25Q4 财报，业绩 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Tencent has launched a tiered "Lobster" product matrix, promoting OpenClaw as a universal application. This series targets different user groups, creating a complete intelligent ecosystem that includes WorkBuddy for general users, QClaw for remote control via WeChat, and Tencent Cloud Lighthouse for enterprise users [2][20] - Apple has reduced the commission rate for the App Store in mainland China from 30% to 25%, and for small business plans from 15% to 12%. This adjustment reflects a balance of interests between platforms and developers, particularly benefiting small developers and the mini-program ecosystem [3][21] - The rapid development of AI applications, combined with a recovery in entertainment consumption, presents investment opportunities in several areas: leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the gaming industry, and the film and cultural tourism sectors. Beneficiaries include Tencent, Alibaba, and several other companies [6][22] Market Overview - In the week of March 9-13, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.19% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.51%. The SW Media Index dropped by 3.23%, ranking 26th among 31 industries [1][11] - The top three sub-industries were advertising and marketing, film, and broadcasting, with respective changes of +0.99%, +0.54%, and -1.45% [1][11] Sub-Industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week were "Fast Life 3" with 64.015 million yuan (35.20% market share), "Biao Ren: Wind Rises in the Desert" with 35.836 million yuan (19.70%), and "Silent Awakening" with 32.181 million yuan (17.70%) [23][24] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Delta Force." The top three Android games by popularity were "Heart Town," "Diver Dave," and "Goose Duck Kill" [25][26] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index were "Pure Love in the Era of Innocence," "Zhu Yu," and "My Mountain and Sea," with indices of 80.9, 80.2, and 77.5 respectively [27][28] Variety and Animation - The top variety show was "The Universe Sparkles, Please Pay Attention," followed by "Hello Saturday 2026" and "Now Departing Season 3" [29][30] - The top three animated shows were "Beyond Time," "Cang Yuan Tu," and "Xian Ni," with viewership indices of 270.8, 237.4, and 237.1 respectively [31]