每经记者｜杜波 每经编辑｜段炼 记者|杜波 编辑|段炼 杜恒峰 校对|许绍航 动"。刘刚认为，短期看，市场或有超调，回撤后短期可能存在向上修复空间。中期看，基准情形下，我们判断港股盈利增长3%~4%与景气结构主线情绪 修复，或推动恒指中枢上行至28000~29000点左右。 招商证券策略研究团队表示，"春节后，随着南下资金的流入，也将为港股带来流动性支持。结构上，推荐科技（AI算力与应用）、非银（保险）与红 利。"其中，恒生科技的估值底和政策底逐步夯实，但盈利底和流动性拐点仍需确认，重点关注未来市场对恒生科技盈利预期的修正，以及美联储政策预 期变化对恒生科技的催化。一旦降息预期重新稳固，港股作为离岸市场将显著受益。 （免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。） 互联网科技股齐跌，腾讯控股跌近3.3%，阿里巴巴跌2.7%，金山云跌5%，快手、小米等跌逾2%。 | 1 | 腾讯控股 | -3.346% 188.29亿 520.000 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 00700 | | | | 2 | 小米集团－W | 35.740 - ...

Core Insights - The global investment wave in AI is reshaping the technology industry and capital markets, characterized by significant capital accumulation since 2008, driven by large models, computing infrastructure, and data center construction [1] - The current AI investment cycle is marked by larger scales, faster paces, and shorter depreciation cycles compared to traditional tech cycles, creating a feedback loop that may lead to systemic risks [1] - The AI industry is experiencing a dual-track development between profit potential and cost realities, leading to market fluctuations between prosperity and bubbles [1] AI Investment Historical Progression - The early exploration phase (1950s-1980s) focused on academic research with limited investment, primarily funded by government grants [2] - The AI winter (1980s-1990s) saw a significant reduction in investment due to unmet market expectations and technological limitations [2] - The revival phase (2000s-2010s) was driven by the internet and big data, leading to renewed investment interest, particularly in data-driven algorithms [3] - The rapid development of generative AI since 2021 has sparked a new investment frenzy, with significant stock price increases for major companies like NVIDIA (up 964%) and Google (up 211%) [4] Industry Structure and Participants - The AI industry is advancing across three levels: infrastructure, platforms, and applications, with various stakeholders driving capital flow and technology implementation [5] - Major tech companies and cloud providers are the primary drivers of infrastructure and platform capabilities, while smaller cloud service providers and private equity are facilitating access to AI services for SMEs [7] - The financing structure for AI infrastructure is becoming more diversified, involving private credit and various forms of debt financing, which introduces complexities in risk management [8] Financing Forms and Cycle Characteristics - AI hardware, particularly GPUs and AI-optimized servers, has a short update cycle, leading to intensive capital expenditures and rapid depreciation [10] - In large AI data center projects, GPUs account for approximately 40-50% of total capital expenditures, significantly impacting financial pressures [10] Similarities and Differences with the Dot-Com Bubble - The current AI investment trend shares similarities with the 1999 internet bubble, including market enthusiasm and overvaluation of companies [11] - However, the technological foundation of AI is more robust, with established applications across various industries, unlike the immature internet technologies of the late 1990s [12] - The AI investment landscape is more diverse, involving various financing methods and a stronger connection to global infrastructure, which provides long-term value [12] Potential for AI Bubble and Transmission Paths - The potential for an AI bubble to burst is linked to valuation logic, macroeconomic policies, and global capital flows, with a likelihood of gradual structural adjustments rather than a sudden collapse [15] - Key triggers for a potential bubble burst include slower-than-expected commercialization of AI models and rising refinancing costs due to tightening monetary policies [16] Cross-Border Risk Transmission - The global nature of AI investments means that market adjustments could have cross-border impacts, particularly in emerging markets reliant on foreign currency financing [18] - Macroeconomic policies from major central banks will significantly influence the risk landscape, affecting debt burdens and risk premiums across the AI investment spectrum [19]

长和：反对巴拿马政府强行接管巴拿马港口公司之资产、员工与营运 港股收盘，港股恒生指数跌1.82%，报26590.32点，恒生科技指数跌2.13%，报5270.7点，国企指数跌 2.06%，报9007.86点，红筹指数跌0.46%，报4445.9点。大模型股上涨，智谱涨约12%，MINIMAX涨约 5%。油气股上涨，山东墨龙涨约11%。机器人概念股跌幅居前，卧安机器人跌约12%，越疆跌约11%。 大型科技股中，阿里巴巴-W跌2.76%，腾讯控股跌3.35%，京东集团-SW跌1.12%，小米集团-W跌 2.24%，网易-S跌1.64%，美团-W跌4.24%，快手-W跌2.77%，哔哩哔哩-W跌1.7%。 公司新闻： 国金宏观认为，市场波动主要源于流动性与风险偏好变化，而非AI产业方向逆转。未来美股对业绩兑 现要求将更严苛，资本开支容忍度持续下降，波动大概率加剧，但科技股是否已经走到右侧仍需观察。 长江和记实业有限公司发表新闻稿：公司获悉，于巴拿马时间2026年2月23日，巴拿马共和国（"巴拿马 政府"）强行进入由长江和记之附属公司巴拿马港口公司所营运之巴尔博亚港和克里斯托瓦尔港两个货 柜码头，并且接管两个货柜码头 ...

中国网络视听协会微短剧工作委员会发布《关于保障微短剧行业演职人员合法权益的自律公约》提出， 约定留痕确权责。用工前双方应协商并以纸质或线上图文视频等形式明确工作内容、工作时长、薪酬标 准、支付周期及方式、违约责任及赔偿等权责内容，做到可核查可追溯。按时足额付薪酬。用工方应按 约定按时、足额支付演职人员劳动报酬。鼓励积极推行人工费用分账管理、设立薪酬保证金账户、建立 薪酬垫付保障机制等措施，从源头堵住"欠薪漏洞"。合理规划制作节奏，不安排"超长待机""连轴转"等 透支式工作，保障演职人员休息时间。首批签署单位共38家，包括爱奇艺、百度时代网络技术（北京） 有限公司、北京笔墨留香科技有限公司（红果短剧）、哔哩哔哩、湖南风芒传媒有限公司、快手等。 关于保障微短剧行业演职人员合法权益的自律公约 微短剧行业的蓬勃发展离不开每一位演职人员的辛勤付出。为更好保障从业人员合法权益，规范行业用 工行为，营造健康有序的行业生态，中国网络视听协会微短剧工作委员会向所有微短剧演职人员、用工 单位、剧组、制作机构、摄制基地、播出平台发出以下自律倡议： 1.约定留痕确权责。用工前双方应协商并以纸质或线上图文视频等形式明确工作内容、工作时 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The large model industry is evolving towards reasoning and multi-modality, emphasizing the feasibility of commercial application and improving ROI efficiency [1] - The new Qwen3.5-Plus model from Alibaba has significantly improved reasoning efficiency, with a total parameter count of 397 billion and a 60% reduction in deployment memory usage [2] - During the Spring Festival, the DAU of Qianwen reached 73.52 million, indicating a competitive edge in capturing C-end traffic [3] Group 2: Industry Trends - Since 2025, the development of large models has shown trends such as evolution from "generation" to "reasoning," emphasis on native multi-modality, and a focus on commercial scene implementation and ROI returns [1] - The AI application landscape is shifting from "buying traffic" to "buying mindset" and "buying pathways" to achieve customer retention [3] Group 3: Recommended Stocks - Companies to focus on include Zhizhu (02513), MiniMax-WP (00100), and Alibaba-W (09988) [2] - Additional recommendations include Cao Cao Travel (02643), SF Express City (09699), Damai Entertainment (01060), Focus Media (002027), and Bilibili-W (09626) [2]

撰文｜画画 今年春节，互联网真正的大战藏在暗处。 不是电商，不是短视频。 是AI的To C化。 阿里、腾讯、字节全线开火，用最熟悉的方式，把AI塞进上亿人的日常。 阿里塞进购物，字节塞进内容，腾讯塞进社交。 三家看似各做各的，但当你把视角拉远，会发现一个更大的趋势。 AI在向最高频、最刚需的场景渗透。 购物、内容、社交，这三个战场背后，藏着同一个终极目标，占领用户的时间、习惯和关系。 而在这三者中，社交是最底层的那一个。社交，正在成为AI ToC化最关键的战场，也是最难的题。 硅谷和中国，都看到了这个机会。 腾讯的元宝，2 月 1 日到 17 日活动期间，用户通过 "创作" 栏完成 AI 任务超 10 亿次。目前元宝日活跃 用户（DAU）已突破 5000 万，月活跃用户（MAU）达 1.14 亿。 字节豆包除夕当天AI 互动总数达 19 亿次。而在 2025 年第四季度，QuestMobile 数据显示，豆包月活飙 升至 2.27 亿，日活突破 1 亿，成为中国首个破亿 DAU 的 AI 原生应用。 至此，中国头部AI应用集体迈入"亿级俱乐部"，就连春节前低调的DeepSeek，也在假期期间，悄然完 成一轮爆 ...

Core Insights - Tencent's 10 billion yuan investment in AI through the "Yuanbao" red envelope campaign has not yielded the expected results, with the app quickly dropping from the top of the App Store rankings [1][19] - The campaign initially generated significant user engagement, but the long-term retention of users remains a critical concern [19][24] Group 1: Campaign Performance - The "Yuanbao" app reached over 50 million daily active users and 114 million monthly active users during the campaign, with users participating in over 3.6 billion lottery draws [6] - Despite the initial success, the app fell out of the top ten free apps on the App Store within a month, highlighting a rapid decline in user interest [1][19] Group 2: User Experience and Retention - Users were primarily attracted to the app for the red envelope rewards, leading to concerns about retention once the incentives were removed [12][19] - Historical data indicates that users acquired through red envelope promotions typically have low retention rates, with a 7-day retention rate below 20% and a 30-day retention rate potentially dropping below 5% [19] Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Tencent's internal structure, which allows for independent operation of its subsidiaries, has led to challenges in aligning efforts towards a unified AI strategy [12][20] - The company's attempt to replicate the success of the WeChat red envelope strategy in the AI space has proven difficult, as the dynamics of user engagement have shifted significantly [20][24] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like ByteDance's "Doubao" and Alibaba's "Qianwen" have successfully leveraged their ecosystems to achieve substantial user growth, with Doubao reaching approximately 172 million monthly active users by September 2025 [15][16] - The AI market is becoming increasingly competitive, and Tencent's "Yuanbao" is struggling to differentiate itself from other AI applications [19][24]

凤凰网科技讯 2月23日，微信官方今日发布2026春节数据报告，通过平台交易、出行、社交等多维度数 据，全景呈现了丙午马年春节期间国人的生活方式变迁与消费市场新特征。报告显示，新春消费与文化 出行需求双向爆发，"仪式感"消费、跨境生活服务、县域文旅经济成为今年春节的核心亮点。 境内出行与文旅消费同样呈现出"马力全开"的态势，超长假效应带动旅游、生活娱乐类交易笔数涨幅均 超过20%。县域城市成为文旅消费的新增长点，通辽、鞍山、沧州、赤峰、周口位列下沉市场支付笔数 增速最快的TOP5城市。景区消费方面，开封、黄山、苏州等传统文旅目的地热度不减，交易笔数同比 分别增长超五成、超三成，"湛江"凭借年味游与非遗游的升温，成为春节期间搜索量增速TOP1的城 市，黄山、湛江、香港、澳门、汕头则位列微信搜索旅游目的地同比增幅TOP5。值得关注的是，海南 凭借"封关后首个长假"的独特优势，相关交易金额同比增长81%，成为新春消费的热门目的地。 消费市场的细分领域同样亮点纷呈，健康与新能源相关消费需求持续攀升。在港人网购年货的热潮中， 医疗美容相关消费增速最快，喜茶、瑞幸、霸王茶姬为热销茶饮品牌TOP3，电商平台相关订单同比增 ...

新京报贝壳财经讯 "最高2026元超大额红包""每人400元开工利是外还有随机'加油包'"……2月24日，马年首个开工日，多家互联网大厂给员工发开工红包。 百度创始人李彦宏的数字人，通过工作软件"如流"的服务号，向全体员工发送定制祝福及开工红包。据透露，百度这次发放开工红包的金额，在365元、588 元、666元、888元、2026元不等，员工最高可以获得2026元的超大额开工红包，实习生也可获得188元的开工红包。 百度员工收到的开工红包截图。 雷军和小米高管团队一起，给小米员工发开工红包，并祝福大家新一年红红火火，万事大吉。 腾讯除"开工利是"每人400元外，还准备了随机"加油包"，共分为"不忘初心19.98元""新年进步20.26元""事事顺遂66.66元""热爱不停52.22元"四档，概率分别 为47.30%、33.21%、10.93%、8.56%。 腾讯的开工红包领取通知。 此外，快手也在马年首个工作日准备了开工红包，员工和实习生分别可以收到366元和200元的红包；OPPO也为所有员工发放了现金100元的开工红包。 快手实习生收到的开工红包截图。 编辑 杨娟娟 校对 杨利 图/受访者供图 ...

瑞银发布研报称，随着模型能力持续迭代，2026年可能成为人工智能代理大规模采用的关键年份，届时 人工智能应用将从对话转向行动。然而该行观察到应用场景呈现分化趋势，美国日益关注企业级应用， 而中国则加大对面向消费者服务的投资力度。 该行近期启动覆盖MiniMax-WP(00100)，认为该公司具备良好布局，有望受惠于中国及全球市场的人工 智能顺风。该行同时认为中国的人工智能颠覆风险应低于美国。在互联网巨头中，看好阿里巴巴与百度 的全栈人工智能能力，以及腾讯与快手-W(01024)在人工智能应用领域的潜力。 报告指，中国主要互联网企业于春节期间推出红包活动以引导流量至其AI服务，包括腾讯控股(00700) 元宝红包，总额10亿元人民币、阿里巴巴-W(09988)千问红包，总额30亿元、百度集团-SW(09888)文心 红包，总额5亿元以及字节跳动的豆包红包。短期内，该行认为这将加速AI在用户中的普及，特别是低 线城市，并促进用户在这些原生AI应用中使用更多AI与智能代理功能，例如图像与影片生成、快闪购 物及其他交易预订服务。 长期来看，该行预期中国AI聊天机器人市场可能出现整合趋势，类似美国ChatGPT的市场格 ...