传媒 证 券 研 究 报 告 上 市 公 司 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 评 2024 年 10 月 11 日 腾讯控股 (00700) ——24Q3 前瞻：游戏和视频号持续拉动增长 报告原因：有新的信息需要补充 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 10 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 438.80 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7620.74 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 482.40/260.20 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 40,718.96 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 9,279.62 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0987 | 投资要点： 买入（维持）事件： ⚫ 我们预计腾讯 24Q3 实现营业收入 1658 亿元，同比增长 7%；调整后归母净利润 535 亿元， 同比增长 19%。 ⚫ 近期政策积极信号释放，带来资本市场提振，腾讯投资公司估值亦提升；未来对消费展 望有望转向乐观但需要时间。腾讯基本面确定性仍 ...

盈利预测：注：归母净利润和 EPS 均为 NonGAAP 口径； [Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 【 广 发 传 媒 & 海 外 】 腾 讯 控 股 （00700.HK） 24Q3 前瞻：游戏趋势向好，广告韧性较强 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 24Q3 业绩前瞻：预计 24Q3 收入达 1658 亿元，YoY/QoQ+7%/+3%。 24Q3 NonGAAP 归母净利润预计达 542 亿元，YoY/QoQ+21%/-5%。 NonGAAP 摊薄每股盈利为 5.68 元，YoY+22%，QoQ-5%。 预计 24Q3 游戏业绩趋势持续向好，广告彰显韧性，金融业务受消费疲 弱拖累。（1）24Q3 游戏收入预计达到 515 亿元，YoY/QoQ+12%/+6%， 其中，预计国内游戏同比增长 11%，海外游戏收入预计同比增长 14%。 国内新产品《地下城与勇士：起源》贡献增量，但去年下半年国内老游 戏的流水压力会对今年的游戏递延收入带来拖累，而海外游戏受益于 24Q1 流水增长加速，预计短期的增长提速效应更明显。（2）24Q3 社 交网络收入预计为 299 亿元，YoY+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) with a target price range of 473 63-526 25 HKD [1][3] Core Views - The report highlights the potential financial and business impact of Taobao's full integration with WeChat Pay, estimating significant revenue growth for WeChat Pay [1][8] - The integration is expected to bring in billions of RMB annually, with a potential revenue increase of 1%-4% for Tencent's FinTech and Business Services (FTB) segment by FY25 [1][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of data flow from e-commerce transactions, which could help Tencent improve its e-commerce capabilities, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce on WeChat Channels [1][21] Financial Impact Analysis - The report estimates that Taobao's integration with WeChat Pay could generate 4 2-25 0 billion RMB annually, depending on the penetration rate and fee structure [1][16] - Under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the revenue impact is projected at 4 2, 8 3, and 25 0 billion RMB respectively for every 5% penetration rate [1][16] - The report forecasts that Tencent's FTB business will maintain a "low growth + gradual gross margin improvement" state due to changes in revenue structure and increased usage of WeChat Pay's "zero balance" payments [1][22] Business Impact Analysis - The integration is expected to enhance Tencent's e-commerce data capabilities, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce, which saw a 3x growth in GMV in 2023 compared to 2022 [1][21] - The report notes that WeChat Pay's data flow could help Tencent build a more robust e-commerce ecosystem, especially in areas where it has been historically weak [1][21] Financial Projections - The report projects Tencent's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 6655, 7257, and 7840 billion RMB, with year-over-year growth rates of 9%, 9%, and 8% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 2197, 2464, and 2742 billion RMB for 2024-2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 39%, 12%, and 11% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS EPS is projected to be 23 94, 27 55, and 31 44 RMB for 2024-2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 44%, 15%, and 14% respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings (00700) is "Buy" with a target price of 476 HKD, maintaining the rating [1]. Core Views - The acceleration of AI business implementation and the trend of platform interconnectivity are expected to create new growth points for the company [1]. - Tencent's new generation model "Tencent Mix Yuan Turbo" has shown significant performance improvements, with training efficiency up by 108%, inference efficiency up by 100%, and inference costs down by 50% compared to previous models [1]. - The company has integrated its AI infrastructure under the brand "Tencent Cloud Intelligence," which has already served 90% of domestic large model vendors [1]. - The gaming revenue is expected to continue to increase quarter-on-quarter in the second half of the year, supported by the launch of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current Price: 387.6 HKD - Target Price: 476 HKD - 6-Month Rating: Buy (Maintain Rating) [1]. Company Performance - Tencent's total shares outstanding: 9,342.57 million shares - Total market capitalization: 3,621,180.68 million HKD - Net asset value per share: 100.81 HKD - Debt-to-asset ratio: 43.95% [1]. AI Business Development - The new model "Tencent Mix Yuan Turbo" has achieved the highest score in domestic large model evaluations, outperforming competitors like GPT-4o [1]. - The company has nearly 700 internal business units utilizing the Mix Yuan model, with API calls reaching approximately 300 million [1]. Gaming Sector Insights - The new game "Delta Action" is set to launch on September 26, which may enhance Tencent's market position in the shooting game category [1]. - The performance of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" has been strong, consistently ranking high in the iOS game sales charts since its launch [1]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in gaming revenue in the second half of the year, with a focus on the operational rhythm of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" [1]. - As of September 23, 2024, the company's stock is projected to have a PE ratio of 16x/13x/12x for the years 2024/2025/2026, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [1].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) with a "Recommend" rating [3] Core Views - Tencent is an absolute leader in the internet industry with diversified shareholder return methods The company plans to double its share buyback scale to over HKD 100 billion in 2024 [2] - The company's high-quality endogenous growth momentum has recovered with high-margin businesses accounting for a larger proportion In Q2 2024 Tencent achieved total revenue of RMB 1611 billion up 8% YoY with gross profit of RMB 859 billion up 213% YoY and gross margin of 533% up 58 percentage points YoY [2] - Tencent's game business is improving and the commercialization space for Video Accounts is vast Key drivers include the recovery of flagship games strong performance of new games and the rapid growth of Video Account advertising revenue [3] Financial Analysis Revenue - In 2023 Tencent's revenue reached RMB 6090 billion up 98% YoY with financial technology and enterprise services and game businesses contributing the most [20] - In Q2 2024 Tencent's domestic game revenue was RMB 346 billion up 9% YoY while overseas game revenue was RMB 139 billion up 9% YoY [22] Profitability - Tencent's gross profit in 2023 was RMB 293109 billion up 228% YoY with gross margin increasing from 431% in 2022 to 481% in 2023 [24] - In Q2 2024 Tencent's Non-IFRS net profit was RMB 573 billion up 526% YoY with a Non-IFRS net margin of 356% up 104 percentage points YoY [2] Business Highlights Games - Domestic games are recovering with flagship games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" showing positive growth in Q2 2024 [32] - Overseas games are performing well with "PUBG MOBILE" and "NIKKE" showing strong growth Supercell's games are also contributing significantly to overseas revenue [39][41] Video Accounts - Video Account advertising revenue grew over 80% YoY in Q2 2024 driven by increased user engagement and live streaming e-commerce [52] - The commercialization potential of Video Accounts is vast with further growth expected from increased ad load rates and user engagement [54] Financial Technology - Tencent's financial technology business saw slower growth in Q2 2024 with payment transaction volume stabilizing and wealth management revenue growing double-digit YoY [3] - The company is focusing on improving payment penetration and convenience with initiatives like "foreign card binding" and "Hong Kong wallet expansion" [64] Social Networks - Social network revenue in Q2 2024 was RMB 303 billion up 2% YoY driven by growth in music and video subscription revenue as well as mini-game platform service fees [46] - Mini-games on WeChat have shown strong growth with MAU exceeding 500 million and high user retention rates [48] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts Tencent's revenue for 2024 2025 and 2026 to be RMB 6607 billion RMB 7214 billion and RMB 7819 billion respectively with Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 2159 billion RMB 2421 billion and RMB 2588 billion respectively [3] - Based on the closing price on September 23 2024 the adjusted PE ratios for 2024 2025 and 2026 are 15X 14X and 13X respectively [3]

腾讯控股（00700.HK）首次覆盖报告：深度系列（一） [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 游戏业务进入复苏通道，视频号力争增量空间 2024 年 09 月 24 日 ➢ 互联网行业绝对龙头，股东回报方式多样化：腾讯向全球用户提供全方位的 互动娱乐产品和服务，在即时通信、社交、游戏、数字内容等领域具备行业龙头 优势，并拥有多元的增值服务变现模式。为应对大股东长期减持计划，2024 年 公司计划回购规模有望翻倍至 1000 亿港元以上，截至 2024 年 9 月 23 日，公 司累计回购金额达 864 亿港元。近年来，公司提供股票分红、现金分红等多样化 的股东回报以提振市场信心。 ➢ 内生高质量增长动能恢复，高毛利业务占比提升：收入端，24Q2，公司实 现总收入 1611 亿元，同比+8%。其中，本土游戏/海外游戏/社交网络/网络广告 / 金 科 及 企 服 业 务 收 入 分别为 346/139/303/299/504 亿元，分别 同 比 +9%/+9%/+2%/+19%/+4%。利润端，24Q2 毛利润 859 亿元，同比+21.3%， 毛利率 53.3%，同比+5.8pct。毛利率的改善 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of 486 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current closing price of 373.40 HKD [4]. Core Insights - Tencent is enhancing its product matrix, focusing on large model capabilities and accelerating their application in various scenarios. The company has upgraded its large model to "Hunyuan Turbo," which improves inference efficiency and decoding speed by 100% and 20%, respectively, at half the cost of the previous generation [1]. - Tencent Cloud has surpassed 11,000 ecosystem partners and serves over 2 million customers, demonstrating healthy and sustainable business growth. The number of partners with orders exceeding one million has also seen double-digit growth [1]. - The company is expanding its international digital solutions, helping businesses iterate commercially in their global strategies. For instance, ultra-low latency live streaming has improved interaction and transaction rates for e-commerce platforms [1][2]. Summary by Sections Product Development - Tencent has launched several new products, including the Tencent Cloud Intelligent Computing brand, which boasts superior performance and stability, with a daily failure rate one-third of the industry average. The training startup time is reduced to just one day [1]. - The introduction of the RAG solution allows for quick AI application development with minimal coding, supporting multi-modal retrieval and achieving double the industry average performance [1]. International Expansion - Tencent Cloud has accumulated over 10,000 overseas clients, with international business maintaining double-digit growth over the past three years. Notable clients include Meituan's Hong Kong delivery platform and the live streaming app JACO in Saudi Arabia [2]. - The report highlights Tencent's ability to enhance user experience and retention through improved server access speeds and upgraded product capabilities for international meetings, which have seen a nearly 50% increase in overseas meeting numbers since the beginning of the year [1][2].

证 券 研 究 报 告 腾讯控股（00700.HK）重大事项点评 推荐（维持） 腾讯全球数字生态大会：向云端 向外看 向 内求 事项： 9 月 5 日，2024 腾讯全球数字生态大会在深圳国际会展中心举行，大会以"智 启新机 云驱增长"为主题，展示了腾讯在产业互联网领域助力千行百业的最 新成果。为了助力更多企业实现增长，腾讯云全面升级智能化、融合创新、国 际化三大产品体系，支持企业打造 AI 落地、自主创新、产业出海三大增长引 擎。 评论： 向云端：云产品与大模型深度融合，"底座+模型+工具+应用"大模型产品矩 阵成为企业优选。1）发布性能更强、性价比更高的 MoE 模型腾讯混元 Turbo， 推理效率提升 1 倍，推理成本降低 50%。混元 Turbo 已经在腾讯云正式上线， 输出/输入推理成本降低 50%至 0.05/0.015 元每千 tokens；2）发布全新的 AI 基 础设施 AI infra 品牌"腾讯云智算"。作为"集算存网一体"的高性能智算底 座，其整合了腾讯云高性能计算 HCC、高性能网络 IHN 星脉、高性能云存储、 加速框架、容器、向量数据库、智算套件等腾讯云优势产品。腾讯云智算能够 ...

港股通 证券研究报告 腾讯控股 (700 HK) 数字生态大会：发布全新混元 Turbo 大模型，AI 赋能产业场景落地 华泰研究 更新报告 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(港币): 465.35 2024 年 9 月 09 日│中国香港 互联网 腾讯全球数字生态大会：云业务助力行业发展 腾讯近日举办全球数字生态大会，推出全新混元 Turbo 模型，对标 GPT-4o， 训练效率提升 108%，推理成本降低 50%。广泛应用于腾讯内部的 AI 代码 助手，协助员工改善开发效率 15%。在国际业务上，腾讯云 2Q24 收入增 速达到双位数，音视频、直播和游戏成为核心竞争力。在云游戏上，腾讯降 低《黑神话》3A 游戏的硬件门槛，成功扩大了玩家群体。我们长线看好 AIGC 需求催化腾讯云业务发展、以及 AI 带来的内部降本增效。我们维持 24-26 年腾讯经调整净利润预测 2144 亿、2477 亿、2839 亿元，给予目标价 465.35 港币(SOTP 估值)，维持"买入"评级。 AI 与云计算创新进展，腾讯云实现业务全球化布局 腾讯云在数字大会上展示 AI 和云计算进展，包括：1）全新发布的混元 Turbo ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2024 09 09 年 月 日 腾讯控股（00700.HK） 三朵云助力企业增长 腾讯数字生态大会召开，腾讯云展示企业服务相关进展。腾讯于 9 月 5-6 日召开数字生态大会，展示了公司在 AI 和云智能领域的企业服务进展。 例如，在交通出行领域，腾讯已经与超过 100 家汽车制造商和出行技术企 业建立了合作关系。在医疗健康领域，腾讯的人工智能产品和解决方案已 经在超过 1300 家机构中得到应用。企业通信协作领域，腾讯会议的海外 会议数自年初以来已经实现了近 50%的增长。 腾讯云集中展示了公司在智能化、融合创新、国际化的"三朵云"战略上 为企业提供的增长引擎。 智能化方面，腾讯推出混元 Turbo，性价比大幅提升。大会上，腾讯公司 推出其最新的人工智能模型——腾讯混元 Turbo。这款新模型基于 MoE 架 构设计，相较于前一代产品，推理效率提升 100%，推理成本降低 50%。 具体来说，该模型的输出服务费用为每千个 tokens 0.05 元，而输入服务 的费用则为每千个 tokens 0.015 元。 融合创新方面，腾讯云推出全栈融合创新产品体 ...