《梦幻》畅玩版增强玩家活跃度，《燕云》出海欧美市场好评如潮：Q3游戏及相关增值服务收入同比 增长11.8%至233.3 亿元。手游业务得益于《梦幻西游》和《燕云十六声》等新老游戏产品流水新高， 收入同比增长6.6%。其中《燕云》上线欧美市场后玩家好评如潮。端游业务受益暴雪回归带来更丰富 的游戏内容，收入同比增长33.4%。展望2026年，公司将上线冒险RPG 游戏《遗忘之海》。未来储备产 品包括《无主星渊》、《代号无限大》、《归唐》》等。本季度递延收入同比增长25.3%达194.7 亿 元，公司游戏流水的确认周期在3-6 个月，后续两个季度将逐步释放利润。预计2025 年公司游戏及增至 服务收入有望同比增长12.4%达940 亿元。 有道连续五个季度实现盈利，游戏广告收入同比增长超50%：Q3 有道收入16.3 亿元，同比增长3.6%， 学习服务/智能设备/在线营销业务分别同比-16.3%/-22.1%/+51.1%达6.4/2.5/7.4 亿元。经营利润2827 万 元，连续五个季度实现盈利。公司跟网易及其他游戏厂商在广告内容上的合作驱动游戏广告收入同比超 增长50%，海外广告收入增长超100%。 云音乐丰 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of $165.00, representing an upside potential of 18.04% for US shares and 18.42% for HK shares [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a 25% year-on-year increase in deferred revenue, indicating a strong future product pipeline in gaming [4]. - The gaming and related services revenue grew by 11.8% year-on-year, driven by both new and existing game titles, with mobile gaming revenue increasing by 6.6% [4]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 12.9% and a Non-GAAP net profit CAGR of 15.5% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, total revenue is projected to reach $16,175 million, reflecting an 8.6% increase from the previous year [3]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to be $5,408 million for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [3]. - The company achieved a GAAP net profit of 87.9 billion RMB in Q3 2025, marking a 31.8% increase year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The gaming segment is expected to generate revenue of 940 billion RMB in 2025, representing a 12.4% year-on-year growth [4]. - The report highlights the successful launch of new titles such as "Dreamland" and "Yanyun," which have received positive feedback in international markets [4]. Shareholder Information - Major shareholders include Ding Lei with a 45.78% stake, followed by BlackRock and The Vanguard Group with 3.02% and 2.47% respectively [2].

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 8 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、产业综合组： 国家金融监督管理总局于上周末下调保险公司相关业务风险因子，包括持仓时间 超过三年的沪深 300 指数成分股、中证红利低波动 100 指数成分股的风险因子从 0.3 下调至 0.27，保险公司持仓时间超过两年的科创板上市普通股的风险因子从 0.4 下调至 0.36。该持仓时间根据过去四年加权平均持仓时间确定。结合周末发 布的《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引》征求意见稿，我们看好沪深 300、红利 和今年一直滞涨的券商等行业的投资机会。 马斯克周末在社交平台 X 上披露了每年向太空发射 100 万吨 AI 卫星的讨论，由于 涉及的发射次数和卫星规模庞大，而且预示了商业卫星应用的新领域，我们认为 这可能大幅提升国内投资者对未来几年商业航天发展空间的预期。马斯克表示， 在地球上已经很难找到简单的电力来源。100 万吨/年的卫星，每颗卫星 100 千瓦， 每年增加 100 吉瓦的人工智能，没有运营或维护成本，通过高带宽激光连接到 Starlink 星座，相当于要每天发射 2 ...

Core Insights - The gaming industry is facing a structural mismatch with an oversupply of games and a stagnating player base, as highlighted by TechSpot [1] - In 2024, Steam is set to release 18,626 games, a 93% increase from 9,656 in 2020, indicating a trend of oversupply [4] - The integration of AI in game development is transforming the industry, making it easier for developers to create games, but also intensifying competition among them [5][7] Industry Trends - The current gaming landscape is characterized by an overwhelming number of game releases, leading to a "military competition" among developers to stand out [4][9] - AI is becoming a central player in game development, with companies like Valve using tools like ChatGPT to enhance their development processes [5][7] - The lowering of development barriers due to AI is resulting in an unprecedented surge in creative output, reminiscent of the transformative impact of the DOOM engine in the 1990s [7][10] Market Dynamics - The global gaming player base has reached 60% of the population, but growth is stagnating, with 20% of players accounting for nearly half of game spending [12] - Major gaming expenditures are concentrated in North America and Europe, which together represent 46% of global game spending, while emerging markets contribute less [12] - The oversupply of games is concerning as it coincides with stagnant consumer spending, posing challenges for developers to capture player attention in a crowded market [12][14]

Core Insights - The "search, fight, and retreat" (搜打撤) genre has gained significant traction, with major companies like Sony, Supercell, and Tencent actively participating in this space [1][3] - Tencent is currently the leader in the domestic "search, fight, and retreat" market, with games like "Dark Zone Breakout" and "Delta Action" solidifying its position [3][6] - The gameplay mechanics of "search, fight, and retreat" present inherent contradictions, making it challenging to balance tactical execution with fast-paced action [5][6] Tencent's Dominance - Tencent's "Delta Action" achieved an average daily active user (DAU) of 20 million in July, ranking among the top five in the industry [3] - "Dark Zone Breakout" was launched in 2022, focusing on a realistic approach that creates a "high-risk, high-reward" psychological experience [7] - The company has expanded its offerings, including the recent launch of "Dark Zone Breakout: Infinite" for PC, which has maintained a top 10 position in internet café rankings [9] Market Dynamics - Despite Tencent's stronghold, other companies like NetEase are also entering the "search, fight, and retreat" arena with unique approaches, such as the "Desert Gold" mode in "Naraka: Bladepoint" [15][19] - New entrants like "No Master Star Abyss," developed by former Blizzard CEO Mike Morhaime, are exploring innovative gameplay mechanics that combine cooperative and competitive elements [17][20] - The genre is evolving, with various companies experimenting with different gameplay styles and mechanics, indicating a competitive landscape that is not solely dominated by Tencent [26][27] Future Outlook - The "search, fight, and retreat" genre is characterized by its appeal to players' sense of risk and reward, creating a gambling-like experience that is distinct from traditional competitive shooting games [27] - The ongoing development of diverse gameplay experiences suggests that the future of this genre will not be monopolized by a single product but will instead cater to a variety of player preferences [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase (NTES.US) is expected to report improved performance in its upcoming earnings release, with projected revenue and adjusted EBIT growth of 12% and 29% year-over-year, respectively, reaching 28.5 billion and 10.4 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The anticipated game revenue for NetEase is expected to increase by 17.9% year-over-year [1] - The company's total revenue is projected to be 28.5 billion RMB, while adjusted EBIT is expected to be 10.4 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Game Performance - Key games contributing to revenue include "逆水寒" (Nirvana in Fire) and "蛋仔派对" (Egg Party), which are performing steadily, while "巅峰极速" (Peak Speed) is recovering growth [1] - New games such as "第五人格" (Identity V) and upcoming titles are expected to maintain strong performance [1] Group 3: Future Product Line - NetEase's product line for the second half of the year includes RPG game "漫威秘法狂潮" (Marvel's Secret Magic), ARPG "暗黑II重置版" (Diablo II Resurrected), and FPS game "无主星渊" (Borderlands) [1] - Approximately 21 new games have recently passed regulatory approval, which is believed to further drive company growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that NetEase's Q2 performance is expected to improve, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT projected to increase by 12% and 29% year-on-year, reaching RMB 28.5 billion and RMB 10.4 billion respectively [1] Revenue and Earnings - Total revenue is forecasted to rise by 12% year-on-year to RMB 28.5 billion [1] - Adjusted EBIT is expected to increase by 29% year-on-year to RMB 10.4 billion [1] Gaming Performance - The gaming revenue for the period is estimated to grow by 17.9% year-on-year [1] - Key games such as "Naraka: Bladepoint" and "Party Animals" have shown stable performance, while "Peak Speed" has resumed growth [1] - "Identity V" and new game titles are performing steadily [1] Future Product Line - The product lineup for the second half of the year includes RPG game "Marvel: Secret Wars," ARPG game "Diablo II: Resurrected," and FPS game "Voidstar" [1] - Approximately 21 new games have recently passed regulatory approval, which is expected to further drive company growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that NetEase (NTES.US) is expected to see improved performance in Q2, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT projected to increase by 12% and 29% year-on-year, reaching RMB 28.5 billion and RMB 10.4 billion respectively [1] Revenue and Earnings - Total revenue is forecasted to rise by 12% year-on-year to RMB 28.5 billion [1] - Adjusted EBIT is expected to increase by 29% year-on-year to RMB 10.4 billion [1] Gaming Performance - The gaming revenue is estimated to grow by 17.9% year-on-year during the period [1] - Key games such as "Nirvana in Fire" and "Egg Party" have shown stable performance, while "Peak Speed" has resumed growth [1] - "Identity V" and new games are performing steadily [1] Future Product Line - The product lineup for the second half of the year includes RPG game "Marvel Secret Wars," ARPG game "Diablo II Resurrected," and FPS game "No Man's Sky" [1] - Approximately 21 games have recently passed regulatory approval, which is expected to further drive company growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that NetEase's performance is expected to improve in the second quarter, with total revenue and adjusted EBIT projected to increase by 12% and 29% year-on-year, reaching 28.5 billion and 10.4 billion respectively [1] Revenue and Earnings - Total revenue is forecasted to rise to 28.5 billion, while adjusted EBIT is expected to reach 10.4 billion [1] - Game revenue is estimated to grow by 17.9% year-on-year during the period [1] Game Performance - The decline in mobile game revenue has slowed to 2.9% year-on-year, attributed to stable performances from titles such as "Nirvana in Fire" and "Party of Egg," as well as recovery in "Peak Speed" and steady performance from "Identity V" and new games [1] Upcoming Titles - NetEase's product lineup for the second half of the year includes RPG game "Marvel Secret Law," ARPG game "Diablo II Resurrected," and FPS game "No Man's Sky" [1] - Approximately 21 games have recently passed regulatory approval, which is expected to further drive the company's growth [1] Analyst Rating - Credit Lyonnais maintains a "Outperform" rating for NetEase with a target price of $140 [1]

Industry Dynamics - In July, a total of 134 game licenses were issued, with 127 being domestic games, indicating a stable approval rate for the year with 893 domestic online games approved so far [2] - The proportion of casual puzzle games among the approved titles saw a significant decline, dropping to 27.6% [2] - The Chinese Football Association plans to establish a national esports football team to participate in various international esports football competitions [3] Company Developments - The domestic AAA game "Mingmo: Yuanshu Zhi Yu" was globally released, but faced controversy due to issues like identical content in different editions and price discrepancies, leading to a drop in its Steam rating from below 20% to 34% after the developers issued an apology and adjusted prices [4] - The game is expected to contribute to the growth of the single-player market in China, with industry experts suggesting that the market for high-quality domestic single-player games is on the rise [4][6] - The gaming company Paper Games experienced executive changes, with Yao Runhao resigning as the legal representative of multiple companies [7] - Zhejiang Shuju Culture held a shareholder meeting to increase its board members from 5 to 7, adding an independent director and a staff representative [8] - NetEase won a bid for a big data platform project with Huatai Securities, amounting to approximately 1.43 million yuan [9] International Developments - The international version of "No Man's Sky" was launched, with the domestic version expected to be released in the fall [11] - Finnish mobile gaming giant Supercell announced an investment in AI gaming company Glass Bead Games, founded by former Alibaba executives [12][13] Esports Events - The third anniversary celebration of "League of Legends Mobile" was successfully held, with teams JT, EW, and TT.Chenxi winning their respective championships [14] - The 2025 League of Legends World Championship will return to China, scheduled from October 14 to November 9 [15]