M N 10 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Continued outperformance during Qingming Target Price HK$26.10 The three-day Qingming Festival holiday embraced booming demand, with (Previous TP HK$26.10) domestic tourist trips +11.5% and tourism revenue +12.7% (both vs. the Up/Downside 23.7% 2019 level), according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Tongcheng Current Price HK$21.10 Travel (TC) kept its strong momentum during the Qingming Fest ...

Stock Data and Market Performance - The stock closed at HKD 21.10 on April 9, with a 52-week price range of HKD 13.12-21.40 [1] - The company has a total market capitalization of HKD 47.9 billion, with 2.27 billion shares outstanding [1] - Over the past 3 months, the stock has shown an absolute return of 40.11% and a relative return of 36.17% compared to the CSI 300 index [2] Company Overview and Competitive Advantages - The company is a leading OTA platform in China, formed through the merger of Tongcheng Network and eLong in 2018 [3] - It has strong partnerships with Tencent and Ctrip, with 80% of MAU coming from WeChat mini-programs [4] - The company has a dominant position in lower-tier cities, with 86.9% of registered users from non-first-tier cities as of 2023 [3] Financial Performance and Growth - Revenue in 2023 reached RMB 11.896 billion, an 80.7% YoY increase, surpassing pre-pandemic 2019 levels by 60.9% [2] - Net profit turned positive at RMB 1.554 billion in 2023, compared to a loss of RMB 146 million in 2022 [5] - The company expects revenue to grow to RMB 23.931 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 19.1% from 2023-2026 [5] Business Segments and Expansion - The platform offers over 420,000 flight routes, 2.5 million hotels, 430,000 bus routes, and 10,000 attraction tickets [4] - Domestic hotel room nights sold in Q4 2023 exceeded 70% of 2019 levels, while international room nights fully recovered [4] - The company completed acquisitions of Tongcheng Tourism Group and Yalong Bay Tropical Paradise in 2023 to expand its tourism business [4] Valuation and Investment Rating - The stock is trading at 19.25x 2023 P/E and 1.69x P/B, with an EV/EBITDA of 14.88x [9] - Analysts forecast 2024-2026 adjusted net profits of RMB 2.73 billion, RMB 3.065 billion, and RMB 3.655 billion respectively [6] - The target price range is HKD 23.38-29.88, representing 18-23x 2024 P/E, with an "Outperform" rating [6] Industry Trends and Growth Drivers - The company benefits from China's tourism market recovery, with strong demand for domestic and outbound travel [6] - It has launched a "Global Destination Plan" to capture growth in cross-border travel [6] - The company's focus on lower-tier cities and WeChat ecosystem integration provides a competitive edge [3][4]

浦银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 同程旅行（780.HK）：清明假期旅游 赵丹 浦 人均消费超 2019 年，五一黄金周预定 首席互联网分析师 银 dan_zhao@spdbi.com 国 热度依然高涨 ( 852) 2808 6436 际 杨子超，CFA 互联网分析师 清明假期旅游人均消费超 2019 年：根据文旅部数据测算，2024 年清 charles_yang@spdbi.com  (852) 2808 6409 明节假期 3 天全国国内旅游出游 1.19 亿人次，按可比口径较 2019 年 同期增长 11.5%；国内游客出游花费 539.5 亿元，较2019 年同期增长 2024年4月9日 财 12.7%。旅游消费金额涨幅超过旅游人次。清明人均消费支出453.4元， 评级 务 超过2019 年同期水平。2024 年清明小长假，以中短途出游为主，高 模 铁动车、自驾等是人们假期出行的主要交通方式，周边游和乡村游订 目标价（港元） 24 型 单量猛增。根据航旅纵横数据，清明节假期期间，国内航线平均票价 潜在升幅/降幅 +17% 更 （不含税）约为 710 元，出入境航线平均票价（不含税）约为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, citing its strong operational performance, strategic acquisitions, and growth potential in the travel industry [1][2] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in 2023, with revenue reaching 11.896 billion RMB, up 80.7% YoY, and adjusted net profit of 2.199 billion RMB, up 240.3% YoY [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 73.5%, up 0.7 percentage points YoY, while the adjusted net margin increased to 18.5%, up 8.8 percentage points YoY [1] - The company's transaction volume surged to 241.5 billion RMB, up 96.8% YoY, driven by strong performance in accommodation booking and transportation ticketing services [1] - The company's strategic focus on lower-tier cities and WeChat traffic has been successful, with 86.9% of registered users coming from non-first-tier cities [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company's revenue reached 3.145 billion RMB, up 109.6% YoY, with adjusted net profit of 483 million RMB, up 1188.3% YoY [1] - The company's annual paying users increased to 235 million, up 25.2% YoY, while average monthly paying users reached 41 million, up 39.1% YoY [1] - The company's EPS is projected to grow from 0.69 RMB in 2023 to 1.49 RMB in 2026, with P/E ratios expected to decline from 19x in 2024 to 12x in 2026 [2][5] Strategic Initiatives - The company deepened its strategic cooperation with Tencent, with 80% of average monthly active users coming from WeChat mini-programs [1] - The company expanded its offline customer acquisition channels, which contributed to the growth of monthly paying users in Q4 2023 [1] - The company enhanced its membership system, particularly the Black Whale membership program, which saw a significant increase in cumulative members in Q4 2023 [1] - The company completed the acquisition of Beijing Tongcheng Travel Industry Group in Q4 2023, strengthening its position in the travel industry supply chain [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.062 billion RMB, 2.723 billion RMB, and 3.369 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 17.028 billion RMB in 2024 to 23.728 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.6% [2][5] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 8.78% in 2023 to 13.03% in 2026, reflecting stronger profitability and operational efficiency [7] Market Position - The company's focus on lower-tier cities and rural tourism projects has been a key driver of user growth, with 72.7% of new paying users on WeChat coming from non-first-tier cities [1] - The company's integration of Tongcheng Travel and the launch of offline store franchising plans have expanded its customer base and market reach [1] - The company's strategic acquisitions and partnerships are expected to further enhance its competitive advantage and market influence in the travel industry [1]

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 社会服务业 [ Table_Main[同I Tnaf 程bol]e 旅_Ti行tle]（ 0780） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 19.48 旅游出行高景气延续，增量业务丰富供给 海 2024.03.20 外 ——同程旅行2023Q4 业绩点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 公 刘越男(分析师) 于清泰(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 13.56-19.88 司 当前股本（百万股） 2,261 021-38677706 021-38022689 （ 当前市值（百万港元） 44,045 liuyuenan@gtjas.com yuqingtai@gtjas.com 中 证书编号 S0880516030003 S0880519100001 国 [ Table_PicQuote] 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 香 23Q4业绩符合预期，低基数下高增长，且后续收入增速有望延续环比改善趋势；公 同程旅行 恒生指数 港 司处于景气改善格局优化利润率提升正循环，后续有望受益国内及出境游回暖。 ） 摘要： 33% ...

[Table_Title] 【 广 发 商 社 & 海 外 】 同 程 旅 行 （00780.HK） GMV 和付费用户数创新高，首次派息回报股东 [Table_Summary] 核心观点：（本文除特殊说明外均采用人民币为货币单位） ⚫ 同程旅行公布 4Q23 财报。公司 23Q4 GMV 同比增长 110.6%至 535 亿元，收入同比增长 109.6%至 31.4 亿元。公司 23Q4 non-IFRS 净利 润同比增长 1188.3%至 4.8 亿元，non-IFRS 净利率同比增长 2.5pct 至 15.3%。公司 23Q4 的 MPU 同比增长 54.3%至 3750 万人。 ⚫ 公司 2023 年 non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 240.3%至 22.0 亿元，non- IFRS 净利率同比增长 9.8pct 至 18.5%，基本恢复至 2019 年同期水 平。公司首次派息，2023 年每股派 0.15 港元，总共派息 3.4 亿港元。 ⚫ 分业务来看：（1）23Q4 公司的交通票务收入同比增长 94.9%至 14.7 亿元。其中，机票票量较 19Q4 增长 16%，远超行业整体表现。（2） ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 同程旅行（780.HK）：业务延续强劲 赵丹 浦 增长，深耕产业链业务拓展 首席互联网分析师 银 dan_zhao@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6436 整体业绩优于预期：公司 4Q23 收入人民币 31.4 亿元，同比增长 际  110%，较 2019 年同期增长 61%，高于市场预期 11%，主要是因为 杨子超，CFA 新业务增长优于预期；调整后净利润为4.8亿元，高于市场预期1.9%， 互联网分析师 调整后净利率为 15.3%。此外，公司宣布派发每股 0.15 港元股息。 charles_yang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6409 业务延续强劲增长态势：4Q23 旅行需求强劲，交易额为人民币 535  亿元，在低基数上同比增长111%，较2019 年同期增长 30%，平均月 2024年3月20日 付费用户同比增长 54%至3,750 万。公司在低线城市的市场地位得到 评级 公 进一步巩固。住宿预订服务收入为 8.8 亿元，同比增长73%，主要得 司 益于公司挖掘多元化住宿场景及交通业务的交叉销售机会，国内间夜 目标价（港元） ...

Table_Title Table_BaseInfo 2024 年 03 月 21 日 公司动态分析 同程旅行（0780.HK） 证券研究报告 4 季度业绩超预期，关注度假业务增量及用户价值释放 xxxx 在线旅行 同程旅行4季度收入/经调整净利润超市场预期11%/2%，4季度国内酒店间夜量/机 投资评级： xx 买入 票预订量较4Q19增70%/16%，APU创新高至2.35亿人。收购同程旅业加码度假业 xx 务，我们看好公司业绩稳健增长前景、度假业务增量贡献、用户价值释放，给予18 倍2024年市盈率，上调目标价至23.3港元，维持“买入”评级。 目标价格： 23.3 港元 报告摘要 现价 (2024-03-20)： 19.48港元 4 季度业绩超预期：总收入同比/较 4Q19 增 110%/61%至 31.4 亿元，超出市场预期 11%，主要因并表同程旅业（自2023年12月起）使得其他收入超预期。交通票务/ 住宿预订收入同比增95%/73%，交通票务仍贡献最大增量。经调整净利润4.8亿元， 总市值(百万港元) 44,045 略高于市场预期2%，净利润率15.3%，较3季度（18.8%）环比回落，主要因 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年03月21日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 增持 国内继续挖潜下沉市场流量变现，海外逐步加码布局 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 2023年公司收入较2019年增长61%，经调净利润增长42%，首次宣布派息。 社会服务·旅游及景区 2023年公司收入119.0亿元，同比增长80.7%，较2019年增长60.9%；经调 证券分析师：曾光 证券分析师：钟潇 整净利润22.0亿元，同比增长240.0%，较2019年增长42.4%，经调整净利 0755-82150809 0755-82132098 zengguang@guosen.com.cn zhongxiao@guosen.com.cn 率18.5%。其中，Q4公司收入31.4亿元，同比增长109.6%，较2019年增长 S0980511040003 S0980513100003 60.7%；经调整净利润4.8亿元，同比增长1188.3%，较2019年增长45.8%， 证券分析师：张鲁 联系人：杨玉莹 经调整净利率15.3%。整体而言，2023年公司收入增速领先行业表现，彰显 010-88005377 0755-81982942 zha ...

2024 年 03 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入 (维持 ) 研究所： [Table_Title] 需求高涨，收入利润及付费用户规模均再创新高 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 张娟娟 S0350523110004 ——同程旅行（ ） 年财报点评 0780.HK 2023 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 罗婉琦 S0350122040042 luowq@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 事件 : 2024年3月19日公司公告2023Q4及全年财报，①2023全年整体实现 营业收入119亿元（YoY+80.7%），归母净利润15.7亿元（2022年为 -1.6亿元）实现扭亏为盈，Non-GAAP净利润22亿元（YoY+240.3%）， 2023全年公司实现总交易额同比增长96.8%至2,415亿元。②2023Q4 公司实现收入31.4亿元（yoy+109.6%），超彭博一致预期9.7%；实现 经调整净利润4.8 亿元，超彭博一致预期1.9%，实现经调整净利润率 15.3%（yoy+12.8pcts）；实现总交 ...