Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that Tongcheng Travel (00780) is expected to meet previous performance expectations for Q3, with overall revenue and profit projected to grow by 9% and 13% year-on-year respectively, reflecting stable growth [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Q3 total revenue for Tongcheng Travel is anticipated to increase by 9% year-on-year, with core OTA revenue expected to rise by 15% to 4.6 billion RMB [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 is projected to be 1.03 billion RMB, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, with a corresponding net profit margin of 18.9% [1] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from accommodation and transportation services is expected to grow by 14% and 10% year-on-year respectively in Q3 [1] - The growth in accommodation revenue is primarily driven by an increase in room nights, with Average Daily Rate (ADR) also showing year-on-year growth [1] Price Target and Rating - The target price for Tongcheng Travel is maintained at 25.5 HKD, with a buy rating upheld [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that Tongcheng Travel (00780) is expected to meet previous performance expectations for Q3, with overall revenue and profit projected to grow by 9% and 13% year-on-year respectively, reflecting stable growth [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The total revenue for Tongcheng Travel in Q3 is anticipated to increase by 9% year-on-year, with core OTA revenue expected to rise by 15% to 4.6 billion RMB [1] - The revenue from accommodation and transportation services is projected to grow by 14% and 10% year-on-year respectively, driven by an increase in room nights and an improvement in Average Daily Rate (ADR) [1] Net Profit Expectations - The adjusted net profit for Q3 is forecasted to be 1.03 billion RMB, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, with a corresponding net profit margin of 18.9% [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Tongcheng Travel is maintained at 25.5 HKD, with a buy rating upheld for the stock [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 25.50, indicating a potential upside of 18.4% from the current price of HKD 21.54 [1][5][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a 9% year-on-year revenue growth and a 13% increase in profit for the third quarter, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 15% to RMB 4.6 billion [5][6]. - Adjustments have been made to the financial forecasts for 2025-2027, with total revenue estimates for 2025 set at RMB 19.232 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 10.9% [4][12]. - The report highlights that the travel industry is facing challenges due to weak demand for group tours in certain overseas regions, impacting overall performance [5][6]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 19,232 million, RMB 21,466 million, and RMB 23,703 million respectively, with a consistent growth trajectory [4][12]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same years are RMB 3,390 million, RMB 3,813 million, and RMB 4,278 million, indicating a steady increase in profitability [4][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, with slight improvements projected over the forecast period [4][12]. Performance Metrics - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 49.996 billion, with a year-to-date stock price change of 18.35% [3][12]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 24.28 and a low of HKD 16.88, indicating significant price movement within the year [3][12]. - Daily average trading volume stands at 5.46 million shares, reflecting active trading interest [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability in the hotel management segment, with a focus on high-end brand expansion [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][18] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve resilient revenue growth in Q3, with a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 9.8% and an adjusted net profit growth of 14.3% [1][9] - The core OTA business is performing well, with OTA revenue expected to grow by 14.9% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong growth in accommodation booking and transportation services [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management has been completed, enhancing the company's supply chain and positioning it among the top 10 hotel management companies in China [3][11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 9.8% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit expected to increase by 14.3% [1][9] - The OTA business is anticipated to see a 14.9% increase in revenue, with accommodation bookings expected to rise by 14.5% and transportation services by 9.5% [2][10] Business Segments - The OTA segment is expected to benefit from a combination of online market penetration and international business growth, while the vacation segment is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 11% due to low outbound travel willingness in Southeast Asia [2][10] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management is expected to positively impact profitability, with the company now managing over 2,700 hotels and a significant expansion in high-end hotel offerings [3][11] Financial Projections - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 33.7 billion, 39.3 billion, and 45.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [4][5] - Revenue is expected to reach 11.896 billion in 2023, growing to 24.712 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12% [5][16]

Core Insights - The company forecasts a 14% year-on-year growth in core OTA revenue for Q3 2025, with total revenue expected to increase by 9% to 5.45 billion yuan [1][2] - The vacation business continues to face pressure, particularly due to a 25% year-on-year decline in flight volume from China to Thailand [2] Revenue Breakdown - **Accommodation**: Expected to grow by 14% year-on-year, driven by a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a steady rise in the share of three-star hotels and a slight increase in platform ADR [1] - **Transportation**: Anticipated to grow by 9% year-on-year, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic passenger volume and a rapid growth in international ticket sales [1] - **Other Revenue**: Expected to increase by 34% year-on-year, driven by growth in hotel management and PMS revenue [1] Profitability and Guidance - The company maintains its full-year revenue and profit guidance for 2025, projecting a 15% increase in core OTA revenue and a Non-IFRS net profit of 3.3 billion yuan [2] - The company is focused on cost control and enhancing international business monetization [2] Valuation and Market Position - The company maintains a target price of 28 HKD, representing an upside potential of 28%, with current trading at 14x/12x 2025/2026 Non-IFRS P/E [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais anticipates Tongcheng Travel's (00780) third-quarter core online travel platform (OTA) business to grow by 15% year-on-year to 4.6 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit reaching 1.03 billion RMB and a profit margin of 19% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue from accommodation and transportation ticketing is expected to increase by 14% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit forecast has been slightly raised due to improved sales and marketing efficiency [1] Group 2: Stock Rating and Price Target - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been raised from 20 HKD to 22 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The performance during the National Day holiday met internal expectations, indicating a positive outlook for the fourth quarter, particularly for outbound tourism [1] - The recent acquisition of Wanda Hotel Development (00169) is expected to enhance the brand value of the existing hotel management business, although its impact on this year's financial performance is anticipated to be limited due to the need for strategic development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC anticipates Tongcheng Travel (00780) will see a 15% year-on-year growth in its core online travel agency (OTA) business for Q3, reaching 4.6 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit of 1.03 billion RMB and a profit margin of 19% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue from accommodation and transportation ticketing is expected to increase by 14% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The adjusted net profit forecast has been slightly raised due to improved sales and marketing efficiency [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been increased from 20 HKD to 22 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Seasonal Performance - The performance during the National Day holiday met internal expectations, indicating strong demand [1] - The fourth quarter's outbound tourism performance is deemed crucial for the group's growth prospects in 2026 [1] Acquisition Impact - The recent acquisition of Wanda Hotel Development (00169) is expected to have a limited impact on this year's financial performance due to the need for strategic development [1] - The acquisition is believed to enhance the brand value of the existing hotel management business and improve earnings per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais forecasts that Tongcheng Travel's core online travel agency (OTA) business revenue will grow by 15% year-on-year to 4.6 billion yuan in Q3, with adjusted net profit reaching 1.03 billion yuan and a profit margin of 19% [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Expectations - The expected revenue growth for the accommodation and transportation ticketing segments is 14% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The fourth quarter's outbound tourism performance is deemed crucial for the group's growth prospects in 2026 [1] Group 2: Acquisition Impact - The recent acquisition of Wanda Hotel Development is expected to have a limited impact on this year's financial performance due to the need for the group to establish a development strategy and the limited time remaining in the year [1] - The acquisition is anticipated to enhance the brand value of the group's existing hotel management business and improve earnings per share [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustment - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been raised from 20 HKD to 22 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel (00780) for 2025 and 2026, with an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 28, indicating an upside potential of 28% [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For Q3 2025, CICC expects core OTA revenue to grow by 14% year-on-year, with total group revenue increasing by 9% to RMB 5.45 billion, and Non-IFRS net profit projected at RMB 1.02 billion [2] - The hotel segment is expected to see a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a stable share of three-star hotels, leading to a 14% growth in accommodation revenue [2] - The transportation segment is projected to grow by 9%, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic flight passenger volume and a rise in international ticket sales [2] Group 2: Overall Business Performance - The company maintains a 15% growth expectation for core OTA revenue in 2025, driven by steady growth in domestic accommodation and transportation, along with contributions from international business [3] - The hotel management business is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with the completion of the acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management in Q4 [3] - CICC maintains the forecast for the company's Non-IFRS net profit at RMB 3.3 billion for 2025, supported by efficient cost control and enhanced international business monetization [3]