Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts Tongcheng Travel's Q3 revenue to increase by 9% year-on-year to 5.45 billion yuan, with core OTA revenue expected to rise by 14% to 4.59 billion yuan, and Non-IFRS net profit projected at 1.02 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - CICC maintains its full-year 2025 revenue and profit guidance for Tongcheng Travel, expecting core OTA revenue to grow by 15% year-on-year and Non-IFRS net profit to reach 3.3 billion yuan [1] Business Segment Performance - The domestic segments of accommodation and transportation within the core OTA business show steady growth, while the overseas segment contributes additional growth [1] - Other business segments, particularly hotel management, continue to experience high growth, with the completion of the acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management expected in Q4 [1] Rating and Target Price - CICC maintains a "outperform industry" rating for Tongcheng Travel, setting a target price of 28 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the revenue and profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel (00780) for 2025 and 2026, with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 28, indicating an upside potential of 28% [1] Group 1: Revenue Forecasts - For Q3 2025, the group expects a 9% year-on-year increase in total revenue to CNY 5.45 billion, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 14% to CNY 4.59 billion [2] - The hotel segment is anticipated to see a 10-15% increase in room nights, with a steady rise in the share of three-star hotels, leading to a 14% growth in accommodation revenue [2] - The transportation segment is expected to grow by 9%, benefiting from a 3% increase in domestic flight passenger volume and a rapid growth in international ticket sales [2] - Other revenues are projected to increase by 34%, driven by growth in hotel management and PMS revenues [2] Group 2: Annual Guidance - The company maintains its 2025 core OTA revenue growth forecast at 15%, supported by steady growth in domestic accommodation and transportation, along with contributions from international business [3] - The company is expected to achieve a Non-IFRS net profit of CNY 3.3 billion for 2025, aided by efficient cost control and enhanced monetization of international business [3]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Tongcheng Travel (00780) will experience stable growth in core OTA revenue for Q3, with an expected year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Revenue Projections - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, and UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient [1] - The company’s accommodation revenue is projected to grow at a mid-teens level [1] - In the transportation segment, UBS predicts a high single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for Tongcheng in Q3 [1] Target Price Adjustment - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts Tongcheng Travel (00780) to experience stable growth in core OTA revenue for Q3, with an expected year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Revenue Projections - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, but UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient [1] - The company’s accommodation revenue growth is projected to be in the mid-teens percentage range [1] Target Price and Rating - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Transportation Business - In terms of transportation services, UBS predicts a high single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for Tongcheng in Q3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects Tongcheng Travel's core OTA revenue to achieve a 14% year-on-year growth in the third quarter, approaching the upper end of its previous guidance of 10%-15% [2] Revenue Insights - Despite normalized travel demand during the National Day holiday, Tongcheng's hotel revenue is expected to remain resilient, with accommodation revenue growth likely nearing the mid-teens percentage range [2] - In the transportation segment, third-quarter revenue is anticipated to achieve high single-digit year-on-year growth [2] Target Price Adjustment - UBS has raised the target price for Tongcheng Travel from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that Tongcheng Travel's core OTA revenue will continue to grow steadily in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 14%, approaching the previous guidance range of 10-15% [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The travel demand during the National Day holiday has become normalized, and UBS believes that Tongcheng's hotel revenue will remain resilient, predicting accommodation revenue growth close to mid-teens level [1] - In terms of transportation business, UBS predicts that Tongcheng's revenue in Q3 will record high single-digit growth year-on-year [1] Group 2: Target Price and Rating - UBS has raised its target price for Tongcheng Travel from HKD 25.5 to HKD 26.5 and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Travel has completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Wanda Hotel Management (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. for a transaction price of 2.49 billion yuan, marking a significant expansion into the high-end hotel market and achieving full-category coverage from economy to luxury hotels [2][4] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition price of 2.49 billion yuan corresponds to a valuation of 9.5 times the adjusted EBITDA for Wanda Hotel Management in 2023, which is lower than competitors like Huazhu (10.5 times) and Atour (19.8 times) [2] - Wanda Hotel Management operates as a light-asset management entity with a portfolio that includes nine brands such as Wanda Reign (luxury) and Wanda Vista (premium), with 222 hotels in operation and over 40,000 rooms as of June 2025 [2] - The acquisition allows Tongcheng Travel to leverage Wanda's established high-end brand matrix and management experience to quickly enter the high-end market, while also providing digital empowerment to Wanda through Tongcheng's online traffic operation capabilities [2][4] Group 2: Market Context and Strategic Implications - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move for Tongcheng Travel to respond to the OTA industry's shift from price competition to quality competition, aligning with the growing demand for high-end hotels in second- and third-tier cities due to consumer upgrades [3] - The partnership is expected to enhance both companies' capabilities, with Wanda's management expertise complementing Tongcheng's digital insights, thereby creating a more robust hotel management ecosystem [4][6] - Tongcheng Travel plans to maintain the independent development of the Wanda hotel brand while fostering innovation in hotel management to tap into the growth potential of the domestic hotel market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy involves reallocating funds into the Guangfa Value Leading Mixed Fund, which focuses on sectors with potential for recovery, particularly in tourism and aviation, despite recent market downturns [1]. Fund Reallocation - The reallocation targets the Guangfa Value Leading Mixed Fund, which is characterized as a fund focused on the "airline + OTA platform" sector, effectively functioning like an index ETF while being actively managed [1]. - The rationale for this reallocation is to take profits from funds that have appreciated significantly and invest in those with lower growth, aiming to control portfolio drawdowns [1]. Sector Analysis - **Aviation Sector**: - The aviation industry faces challenges due to a decline in business travel and reduced consumer spending, impacting passenger numbers [5]. - Factors such as currency exchange rates, fuel costs, and aircraft supply are seen as favorable for the aviation sector, with a potential for recovery if consumer demand improves [6][12]. - Recent data indicates a strong willingness among consumers to travel, with domestic travel during the recent holiday period reaching 888 million trips, a 16% increase year-on-year [12]. - **Tourism Sector**: - The tourism sector is divided into four sub-sectors: duty-free (China Duty-Free Group and Shanghai Airport), attractions (Songcheng Performance and Overseas Chinese Town), airlines (Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines), and hotels (Jinjiang and Shouqi) [4]. - The duty-free segment is struggling with declining consumer purchasing power, leading to reduced profit margins [4]. - The attractions sector is volatile, with visitor numbers fluctuating significantly, impacting financial stability for many companies [4]. - The hotel industry is facing intense competition, with new entrants emerging post-pandemic, leading to continued market saturation [4]. Investment Outlook - The aviation and duty-free sectors are viewed as having potential investment value, contingent on a recovery in consumer spending [5]. - The overall sentiment suggests that while the tourism and hotel sectors may present risks, the aviation sector could see significant upside if consumer demand is stimulated through effective policy measures [12].

Core Insights - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday saw a significant increase in domestic travel and spending, with 888 million trips taken and total expenditures reaching 809 billion yuan, marking an increase of 1.23 billion trips and 108.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Travel Trends - The holiday's travel themes included red tourism, autumn scenery, and moon viewing, with small cities offering a combination of these attractions becoming popular destinations [1] - Popular red tourism sites included Jinggangshan in Jiangxi, Yan'an in Shaanxi, and Changsha in Hunan, attracting large numbers of visitors [1] - The trend of "chasing autumn" led to high hotel bookings in over 2,000 counties, with the highest demand in Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - There was a 3% increase in long-distance travel orders compared to last year, with over 20% more users booking multiple domestic cities [2] - The "night economy" gained traction, with a 200% increase in searches for night tours, and venues like the Shanghai Pudong Art Museum seeing a fivefold increase in night attendance [3] - The collaboration between Wanda Films and the game "Love and Deep Space" showcased the rise of cross-industry marketing targeting younger consumers [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Non-first-tier cities saw a 90% increase in high-quality hotel bookings, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards these locations [2] - The overall hotel booking volume in popular domestic cities increased by over 20%, while outbound travel destinations experienced a 30% rise in flight bookings [2] - The holiday period featured over 300 large-scale light shows, enhancing the appeal of night tourism [3]

Core Insights - The "super golden week" during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival saw record-high tourism activity, with an estimated 2.432 billion trips made, averaging 304 million trips per day, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] Group 1: Travel Trends - There is a noticeable trend towards long-distance and high-quality travel, with a significant increase in bookings for multi-city trips and high-quality accommodations [2][5] - The younger demographic, particularly those aged 23 to 40, has become the main force in outbound travel, with a 63% increase in international ticket purchases among teenagers aged 13 to 17 [3][6] - The demand for personalized and immersive travel experiences is rising, with travelers increasingly seeking unique destinations and experiences rather than traditional tourist spots [4][5] Group 2: Travel Behavior Changes - Travelers are shifting from standardized group tours to customized itineraries, often with smaller group sizes and specific themes [4] - The popularity of night tourism has surged, with a 200% increase in searches for night activities during the holiday period [9] - The trend of "串游" (multi-destination travel) has expanded, with travelers exploring over 180 countries and regions, reflecting a shift from classic to niche destinations [5] Group 3: Economic Impact - The cost of travel has increased significantly, with many travelers facing higher prices for flights and accommodations compared to previous years [10][12] - The average domestic flight price during the holiday was 849 yuan, showing stability compared to previous years, while long-distance travel demand has notably increased [11] - The trend of staggered travel has gained popularity, allowing travelers to avoid peak prices and enhance their travel experience [12]