Core Viewpoint - The Tianhong CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159281) experienced a decline of 1.12% in its closing price on November 14, with a trading volume of 38.04 million yuan [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Tianhong CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF was established on August 20, 2025, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of November 13, the fund had a total of 213 million shares and a total size of 229 million yuan [1]. - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, adjusted for valuation exchange rates [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Performance - Over the past 20 trading days, the fund has accumulated a total trading amount of 1.069 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 53.45 million yuan [1]. - The current fund manager, He Yuxuan, has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 7.34% during the management period [1]. Group 3: Top Holdings - The top holdings of the fund include: - COSCO Shipping Holdings (0.85% holding, 218,000 shares, market value of 2.9175 million yuan) [2] - Orient Overseas International (0.40% holding, 10,500 shares, market value of 1.3717 million yuan) [2] - China Foreign Transport (0.33% holding, 270,000 shares, market value of 1.1396 million yuan) [2] - China Petroleum (0.32% holding, 162,000 shares, market value of 1.0973 million yuan) [2] - CITIC Bank (0.32% holding, 175,000 shares, market value of 1.1136 million yuan) [2] - CNOOC (0.29% holding, 58,000 shares, market value of 1.0041 million yuan) [2] - China Shenhua Energy (0.29% holding, 30,500 shares, market value of 982,600 yuan) [2] - China Pacific Insurance (0.29% holding, 164,000 shares, market value of 1.0107 million yuan) [2] - China Unicom (0.28% holding, 104,000 shares, market value of 952,800 yuan) [2] - Agricultural Bank of China (0.27% holding, 189,000 shares, market value of 933,900 yuan) [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Wanjiac Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159333) has experienced a decline in both share count and total assets in 2024, indicating potential challenges in attracting investor interest [1][2]. Fund Overview - The fund was established on August 21, 2024, with a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of November 13, 2024, the fund's total shares stood at 325 million, with a total asset size of 500 million yuan [1]. - The fund's performance benchmark is the Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, adjusted for valuation exchange rates [1]. Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, the fund has seen a 24.60% decrease in share count and a 2.58% decrease in total assets compared to December 31, 2024 [1]. - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount reached 484 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of approximately 24.22 million yuan [1]. - For the year, the cumulative trading amount over 210 trading days was 8.06 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of about 38.38 million yuan [1]. Fund Management - The current fund manager is Yang Kun, who has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 54.64% during the management period [2]. - The fund's top holdings include China COSCO Shipping, China Nonferrous Mining, China National Offshore Oil, and others, with varying ownership percentages [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][27]. Core Viewpoints - The new upward cycle in the coal industry has been confirmed, with the profitability of thermal coal improving faster than that of coking coal [9]. - The current coal market is characterized by a clear trend of price recovery, with significant narrowing of year-on-year declines [9][13]. - The financial performance of the coal sector has shown substantial improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with revenue, profit, and operating cash flow all increasing [7][19]. Price Dynamics - Spot prices for thermal coal have shown a clear rebound trend, with the average price in Q3 being 672 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.5% [5]. - Coking coal prices averaged 1562 RMB/ton in Q3, with a year-on-year decline of 17.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.8% [5]. - Long-term contract prices for thermal coal averaged 669 RMB/ton in Q3, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5][17]. Production and Sales - There is a notable divergence in the production and sales of self-produced coal among listed companies, with some companies like Yongtai Energy showing a significant increase in production (up 8.2% year-on-year) while others like Lanhua Sci-Tech saw a drastic decline (down 69.8% year-on-year) [6][19]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal has decreased year-on-year across the board, with the lowest decline seen in Lu'an Huaneng (down 5.7%) and the largest in Yongtai Energy (down 34.1%) [6]. Financial Performance - The coal sector's revenue decreased by 11.1% year-on-year but increased by 12.1% quarter-on-quarter, with thermal coal showing the smallest year-on-year decline of 6.7% [7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 24.0% year-on-year but rose by 21.3% quarter-on-quarter, with thermal coal experiencing a smaller decline of 16.3% year-on-year [7]. Holdings and Market Position - Fund holdings in the coal sector increased to 0.65% in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 0.10 percentage points [8]. - China Shenhua holds the largest market value in coal sector holdings, while Lu'an Huaneng has shown the highest growth in holding value [8][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively allocating resources in the coal sector, highlighting stocks such as Yancoal, Shanxi Coal International, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry as having strong potential [8].

Core Viewpoint - Dongxing Securities report indicates that China Shenhua's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 is 39.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.24% [1] - The company is expected to show resilience due to its cost advantages in self-produced coal and the integration of coal and electricity, despite a decline in performance influenced by coal prices [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, the net profit reached 14.411 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.2% [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected to be 51.348 billion yuan, 53.511 billion yuan, and 54.568 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.58 yuan, 2.69 yuan, and 2.75 yuan [1] Industry Outlook - The bottom of the coal market is expected in the first half of 2025, with performance recovery driven by supply constraints due to "anti-involution" [1] - The company is acquiring coal, pithead coal power, and coal chemical assets from the National Energy Group and Western Energy, which will contribute to stable performance [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is gradually bringing new mines into production, which is anticipated to lead to an increase in coal production and contribute to stable earnings [1] - The company maintains a high dividend payout, aiming to build dual value through growth and dividends [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 213.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, with a net profit of 39.05 billion yuan, down 15.24% [1] - The coal segment showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with production and sales returning to growth for the first time this year [1] - The power generation segment experienced an increase in profit despite a decline in total power generation and sales due to lower coal prices and procurement costs [1] Coal Segment - For the first three quarters of 2025, coal production was 251 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4%, while coal sales reached 317 million tons, down 8.4% [1] - The average sales price for annual and monthly contracts was 452 yuan/ton and 553 yuan/ton, respectively, reflecting declines of 8.1% and 22.4% year-on-year [1] - The coal segment achieved a revenue of 159.10 billion yuan, down 21.1%, with a total profit of 32.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% [1] Power Generation Segment - Total power generation for the first three quarters was 1,628.7 billion kWh, down 5.4%, while total sales were 1,530.9 billion kWh, down 5.5% [1] - The average selling cost was 327.5 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 19.2%, up 3.5 percentage points [1] - The total profit for the power generation segment was 10.14 billion yuan, an increase of 20.4% [1] Transportation and Coal Chemical Segments - The self-owned railway business saw a profit increase, while port business gross margins grew; however, shipping business margins declined [2] - The self-owned railway transport turnover was 2,341 billion ton-km, down 0.3%, with a unit transport price of 145.19 yuan/thousand ton-km, up 1.21% [2] - The coal chemical products segment achieved a revenue of 4.35 billion yuan, up 6.1%, with a gross margin of 7.1%, an increase of 0.2% [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to see a recovery in coal prices and production, with projected net profits of 51.35 billion yuan, 53.51 billion yuan, and 54.57 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The company maintains a strong dividend policy, aiming to provide both growth and dividend value [3] - The investment rating is maintained at "strongly recommended" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Enterprise ETF (159959) opened with a slight increase of 0.44%, priced at 1.602 yuan, reflecting the performance of its underlying assets and market conditions [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Central Enterprise ETF (159959) has a benchmark performance index of the CSI Central Enterprise Structural Adjustment Index [1] - Since its establishment on October 22, 2018, the fund has achieved a return of 59.39% [1] - The fund's return over the past month has been -0.19% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Key stocks in the ETF include: - 澜起科技 (Lianqi Technology) down 0.55% - 中芯国际 (SMIC) down 0.53% - 海康威视 (Hikvision) down 0.10% - 国电南瑞 (Guodian NARI) down 0.29% - 招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) up 0.09% - 宝钢股份 (Baosteel) up 0.26% - 中国神华 (China Shenhua) up 0.21% - 长安汽车 (Changan Automobile) up 0.16% - 中国电信 (China Telecom) unchanged - 中国建筑 (China State Construction) unchanged [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Shenhua [5][9]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal, power, chemical, and port businesses have all seen improvements in gross profit margins, indicating a dual value of growth and dividends [5][9]. - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, the company is expected to recover due to its cost advantages and integrated coal-power operations [5][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 213.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, and a net profit of 39.05 billion yuan, down 15.24% [1]. - The operating cash flow net amount was 65.25 billion yuan, a decline of 11.7% year-on-year [1]. Coal Division - The coal division's gross profit margin increased to 30.4%, up 2.01 percentage points year-on-year, despite a 21.1% drop in revenue to 159.10 billion yuan [2]. - In Q3 2025, coal production reached 85.50 million tons, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, marking the first quarter of positive growth in 2025 [2]. Power Division - The gross profit margin for the power division improved to 19.2%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, with total profit increasing by 20.4% to 10.14 billion yuan [3]. - Total power generation for the first three quarters was 162.87 billion kWh, down 5.4% year-on-year [3]. Transportation and Chemical Division - The transportation division saw a profit increase to 10.31 billion yuan, while the port business experienced gross profit growth due to reduced costs [4]. - The chemical products segment reported a revenue increase of 6.1% to 4.35 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 7.1%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 51.35 billion yuan, 53.51 billion yuan, and 54.57 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.58, 2.69, and 2.75 yuan [9][10].

Summary of China Shenhua's Conference Call Company Overview - China Shenhua is one of the largest coal companies in China, benefiting from its merger with China Power to form the State Energy Group, holding a 13% share of the national coal production and 54% of the State Energy Group's coal output [2][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Valuation and Dividend Policy**: Shenhua's valuation is significantly higher than the industry average, attributed to its leading dividend policy with a cash dividend rate above 70%. The mid-term cash dividend distribution accounted for 79% of net profit, and as of October 20, the dividend yield was approximately 7.7%, well above the 10-year government bond yield [2][4][5] - **Debt and Financial Health**: Despite a continuous reduction in coal sector holdings by active funds, Shenhua's investment value is re-emerging due to rising coal prices and improved balance sheets. The company's interest-bearing debt ratio has decreased to 6%, with ample cash reserves and a low interest expense ratio of 0.9% in the first half of the year [2][6] - **Expansion Plans**: Shenhua is actively expanding its coal segment and diversifying into power generation, transportation, and coal chemical industries. The company plans to commission multiple mining projects, adding a total capacity of 26 million tons, expected to be operational by 2028-2029 [2][7][10] - **Sales and Pricing Resilience**: Shenhua's sales model and integrated business approach provide strong pricing resilience. The average selling price of self-produced coal fell by 9.3% year-on-year, significantly less than the market price decline of 18.4%. Effective cost control has maintained an overall gross margin above 30% [2][8][9] Additional Important Insights - **Resource Scale and Future Planning**: By the end of 2024, Shenhua's recoverable reserves are projected to be 15.1 billion tons, with an annual production of 32.7 million tons, accounting for 25% of the total output of 30 listed coal companies. The company owns 24 operating mines and 9 under construction [4][10] - **Coal Industry Dynamics**: The coal sector has seen a significant improvement in balance sheets since 2021, with Shenhua's financial health enhancing its investment appeal. The average sales cost for major domestic coal companies is 291 yuan per ton, indicating substantial profit margins for Shenhua [6][11] - **Integrated Business Model**: Shenhua's mature integrated business model, which includes coal production, transportation, and power generation, allows for better cost management and operational efficiency. The company ensures raw material self-sufficiency, which mitigates the impact of coal price declines on its performance [12][13] - **Future Coal Price Expectations**: In the first half of 2025, coal prices fell to 609 yuan per ton due to oversupply and lower demand. However, prices rebounded to over 820 yuan per ton due to production cuts and increased summer energy consumption. The expectation is for continued price increases in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026, highlighting the investment value of high-dividend stocks [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Penghua Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159117) has shown a slight increase in its closing price and has a total trading volume of approximately 9.8 million yuan as of November 11, 2023 [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Penghua Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF was established on September 30, 2025, with an annual management fee of 0.30% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - The fund's performance benchmark is the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index, adjusted for exchange rates [1]. - As of November 10, 2023, the fund has a total of 175 million shares and a total size of 185 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Management - The current fund managers are Yan Dong and Yu Zhanchang, both of whom have managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 5.37% during their tenure [1]. Group 3: Top Holdings - The ETF's top holdings include: - Hang Lung Properties: 1.08% holding, valued at approximately 4.07 million yuan [2]. - Jiangxi Copper: 1.08% holding, valued at approximately 4.06 million yuan [2]. - China Shenhua: 1.05% holding, valued at approximately 3.97 million yuan [2]. - Far East Horizon: 0.99% holding, valued at approximately 3.72 million yuan [2]. - CNOOC: 0.96% holding, valued at approximately 3.62 million yuan [2]. - Sino Land: 0.94% holding, valued at approximately 3.54 million yuan [2]. - China Petroleum: 0.87% holding, valued at approximately 3.29 million yuan [2]. - Hengan International: 0.87% holding, valued at approximately 3.26 million yuan [2]. - Henderson Land: 0.81% holding, valued at approximately 3.05 million yuan [2]. - Bank of China Hong Kong: 0.81% holding, valued at approximately 3.06 million yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - On November 11, coal stocks experienced a collective pullback after a period of continuous increase, raising concerns about coal companies' performance and financing situations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coal stocks such as China Coal Energy fell over 4%, while China Shenhua and Yanzhou Coal Mining dropped by 3%, and other companies like Shougang Resources and Mongolian Energy saw declines of 2.4% [1] - The article notes that coal prices are expected to decline year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, leading to a year-on-year decrease in coal companies' performance [1] Group 2: Price Recovery and Performance Improvement - Despite the year-on-year decline, the third quarter saw a significant recovery in coal prices compared to the previous quarter, resulting in a noticeable improvement in coal companies' performance on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1] Group 3: Financing Challenges - Many global financial institutions, investment funds, and insurance companies are incorporating ESG factors into their investment decisions, which has led to restrictions or withdrawals from coal project investments, causing financing difficulties and increased costs for coal companies [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term factors such as recovery, extreme weather, and geopolitical issues may create tight supply and demand conditions in the coal market, presenting trading opportunities, although the high volatility of the sector should be noted [1]