Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of mid-term population changes on housing prices in developed countries/regions is limited, as there is no significant positive correlation between housing price indices and population growth rates or numbers [1] - From 2022, housing prices in 70 cities have entered a downward trend, with a widening decline expected in Q3 2024, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed since Q4 due to supportive policies [1] - The current adjustment cycle in the housing market has seen both new and second-hand housing price indices decline for over 40 months [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that housing prices in developed countries/regions have experienced fluctuations since the 1980s, with price corrections often exceeding those in China, but eventually stabilizing [2] - Key factors for stabilizing and recovering housing prices include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, such as large-scale quantitative easing, interest rate cuts, and fiscal subsidies [2] - A stable policy outlook, low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structure are crucial for halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market [2] Group 3 - The stabilization of housing prices is influenced by multiple factors, including monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations, rather than solely by population dynamics [3] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit property companies with good urban fundamentals and leading product capabilities, as well as firms that can drive both residential and commercial real estate [3] - The increasing penetration rate of second-hand housing indicates a promising outlook for the real estate after-service sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is experiencing a significant decline in both revenue and profitability, with major listed companies reporting substantial losses and a challenging outlook for the near future [1][2][4][7]. Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, typical listed real estate companies achieved total revenue of 12,868 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, while operating costs were 11,454 billion yuan, down 16% [1]. - The gross profit for these companies was 1,414 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit loss for the industry expanded to 2,762 billion yuan in 2023, further increasing to 3,397 billion yuan in 2024, and reaching 902 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. Profitability Ratios - The overall gross margin for the industry in the first half of 2025 was 10.87%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the entire year of 2024, while the net margin was -7.45% [4]. - Excluding companies that have faced financial distress, the gross margin for 27 stable firms was 15.09%, up 2 percentage points from 2024, with a net margin of 1.71%, indicating a recovery from previous losses [4]. Factors Affecting Profitability - The decline in profitability is attributed to high land acquisition costs, increased sales pressure, and asset impairment provisions, which have negatively impacted current profit performance [4][7]. - Companies are resorting to discount promotions to boost sales, leading to a situation where revenue increases do not translate into profit growth [4]. Industry Outlook - The industry is at a turning point, with a shift in policy focus from deleveraging to risk prevention, and a change in demand dynamics from broad increases to differentiation [7]. - Major companies like Longfor and Vanke express cautious optimism, highlighting the ongoing demand for quality housing in core urban areas despite recent price declines [7][8]. Strategic Planning of Key Companies - China Resources Land plans to maintain an annual opening pace of around six shopping centers, with a focus on public REITs to enhance asset value [9]. - China Merchants Shekou aims to optimize asset structure and enhance operational capabilities through a new asset management model [9]. - Longfor Group anticipates a 10% growth in its commercial sector and plans to open approximately ten new projects annually in the coming years [9]. - New City Holdings is focused on enhancing its commercial operations and leveraging financial policies to improve its capital structure [9].

瑞银发布研报称，予华润置地(01109)"买入"评级，目标价42港元。公司较早前发公告指，郭世清辞任 执行董事、执行委员会成员、首席财务官、董事会秘书及授权代表。 报告中称，润地财务总监的变动不会改变公司策略，即业务模式向资产管理转型。该行预计公司每年将 5000万至1亿元人民币资产，分拆至房地产投资信托基金的目标仍在进行中。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，予华润置地(01109)"买入"评级，目标价42港元。公司较早前发公 告指，郭世清辞任执行董事、执行委员会成员、首席财务官、董事会秘书及授权代表。 报告中称，润地财务总监的变动不会改变公司策略，即业务模式向资产管理转型。该行预计公司每年将 5000万至1亿元人民币资产，分拆至房地产投资信托基金的目标仍在进行中。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of executive changes at China Resources Beer and China Resources Land, effective September 23, 2025, with Zhao Wei resigning from China Resources Beer and Guo Shiqing resigning from China Resources Land due to other work commitments [2][5]. Group 2 - Zhao Wei has been appointed as an executive director, executive committee member, chief financial officer, board secretary, and authorized representative of China Resources Land, effective September 23, 2025 [8]. - Guo Shiqing's resignation includes his roles as executive director, executive committee member, chief financial officer, and board secretary of China Resources Land [5][17]. Group 3 - Zhao Wei's background includes over 20 years of experience in financial management, having held various significant positions within China Resources Beer and its subsidiaries [10][11]. - Guo Shiqing has been with China Resources Land since 2001 and has held multiple key positions, including chief financial officer since June 2020 [15][17]. Group 4 - Zhao Wei's annual remuneration at China Resources Beer for 2024 was reported to be 2.90 million RMB, which includes a basic salary and allowances of 1.05 million RMB, provident fund contributions of 0.16 million RMB, and a bonus of 1.69 million RMB [13]. - Guo Shiqing's annual remuneration for 2024 was reported to be 3.145 million RMB, which includes a salary and allowances of 1.104 million RMB, defined contribution plan contributions of 0.217 million RMB, and a discretionary bonus of 1.824 million RMB [17].

据悉，郝忠明，现年五十四岁，于2022年10月加入华润置地。1993年7月至2018年九月任职于国家机 关。2018年至2022年，分别担任华润医药商业集团有限公司党委副书记、华润(集团)有限公司人力资源 部副总经理、华润集团党委组织部副部长。 公告称，华润置地董事会宣布郭世清因其他工作安排，自2025年9月23日起辞任执行董事、执行委员会 成员、首席财务官和董事会秘书。 同时，郝忠明获委任为执行董事及执行委员会成员；赵伟获委任为执行董事、执行委 员会成员、首席 财务官、董事会秘书及授权代表。 （原标题：华润置地：郭世清辞任执行董事等职务） 9月23日，华润置地有限公司（股票代码：01109.HK，以下简称"华润置地"）发布董事变更等公告。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land announced a series of management changes, including the resignation of CFO Guo Shiqing and the appointment of Hao Zhongming and Zhao Wei to key executive positions [2][5][6] Management Changes - Guo Shiqing will resign as Executive Director, Executive Committee member, CFO, and Company Secretary effective September 23, 2025, due to other work commitments [2] - Hao Zhongming has been appointed as Executive Director and Executive Committee member starting September 23, 2025 [2] - Zhao Wei will take over as Executive Director, Executive Committee member, CFO, Company Secretary, and Authorized Representative from September 23, 2025 [2] Background of Key Personnel - Guo Shiqing joined China Resources Land in 2001 and has held various financial management roles, including CFO since June 2020 [5][6] - Hao Zhongming, 54, joined China Resources Land in October 2022, previously serving in various roles within the government and the China Resources Group [6][7] - Zhao Wei, 53, has over 20 years of financial management experience within the China Resources Group and will assume the CFO role [6][7] Compensation and Terms - Both Hao Zhongming and Zhao Wei have signed a three-year appointment letter with a pre-tax basic monthly salary of RMB 62,800, along with performance-based bonuses [7] Company Overview - China Resources Land is a core business unit of China Resources Group, established in 1994 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 1996 [8] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 94.92 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 11.88 billion, up 16.2% [8]

9月23日，华润置地发布董事会变更公告，宣布核心管理层迎来系列调整。 公告显示，华润置地宣布，郭世清先生因其他工作安排，自2025年9月23日起辞任执行董事、执行委员 会成员、首席财务官及董事会秘书，不再担任香港联合交易所有限公司证券上市规则第3.05条所规定的 公司授权代表。郭先生已确认，彼与董事会概无意见分歧，亦无任何有关彼辞任的事宜须提呈公司股东 及联交所垂注。董事会藉此衷心感谢郭先生于任职期间所作出的宝贵贡献。 华润置地进一步宣布，自2025年9月23日起，郝忠明先生获委任为执行董事及执行委员会成员；赵伟先 生获委任为执行董事、执行委员会成员、首席财务官、董事会秘书及授权代表。 2025年上半年，华润置地营业收入为949.2亿元，同比增长19.9%；华润置地股东应占溢利为118.8亿 元，同比增长16.2%；股东应占核心溢利（核心净利润）为100.0亿元。期内，华润置地新增土储储备 148万平方米。截至2025年6月30日，该集团总土地储备约为4895万平方米。 资料显示，郭世清于2001年加入华润置地，于2017年获委任为公司东北大区副总经理，负责公司在东北 大区的财务管理工作，于2018年10月获 ...

Group 1 - The company announced that Mr. Guo Shiqing will resign from his positions as Executive Director, Executive Committee Member, Chief Financial Officer, Board Secretary, and Authorized Representative effective September 23, 2025 [1] - Mr. Hao Zhongming has been appointed as an Executive Director and Executive Committee Member [1] - Mr. Zhao Wei has been appointed as an Executive Director, Executive Committee Member, Chief Financial Officer, Board Secretary, and Authorized Representative [1]