Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 8.6% to RMB 38,418.9 million in 2023 compared to RMB 35,377.0 million in 2022[12] - Gross profit rose by 29.0% to RMB 11,662.5 million in 2023 from RMB 9,039.3 million in 2022[12] - Net profit grew by 31.5% to RMB 8,754.5 million in 2023 compared to RMB 6,659.0 million in 2022[12] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 25.0% to RMB 14,107.3 million in 2023 from RMB 11,289.1 million in 2022[12] - Adjusted net profit rose by 32.3% to RMB 9,005.9 million in 2023 compared to RMB 6,806.0 million in 2022[12] - Basic adjusted earnings per ADS increased by 29.7% to RMB 11.14 in 2023 from RMB 8.59 in 2022[12] - Diluted adjusted earnings per ADS grew by 27.6% to RMB 10.90 in 2023 compared to RMB 8.54 in 2022[12] - Revenue increased by 8.6% from RMB 35,377.0 million in 2022 to RMB 38,418.9 million in 2023 due to post-pandemic recovery in express delivery demand[17] - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 8,754,457 thousand, compared to RMB 6,658,966 thousand in 2022[15] - Adjusted net profit for 2023 was RMB 9,005,920 thousand, up from RMB 6,805,999 thousand in 2022[15] - EBITDA for 2023 was RMB 13,857,799 thousand, compared to RMB 11,153,363 thousand in 2022[15] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2023 was RMB 14,107,290 thousand, up from RMB 11,289,073 thousand in 2022[15] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for 2023 was RMB 8,749,004 thousand, compared to RMB 6,809,056 thousand in 2022[16] - Adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for 2023 was RMB 9,000,467 thousand, up from RMB 6,956,089 thousand in 2022[16] - Basic earnings per share for 2023 were RMB 10.83, compared to RMB 8.41 in 2022[16] - Diluted earnings per share for 2023 were RMB 10.60, compared to RMB 8.36 in 2022[16] - The core express business revenue increased by 9.8% from RMB 34,164.3 million in 2022 to RMB 37,512.1 million in 2023, driven by a 23.8% increase in parcel volume and an 11.3% decrease in parcel unit price[31] - The freight forwarding service revenue decreased by 25.2% in 2023 compared to 2022, primarily due to post-pandemic e-commerce price declines[32] - The total operating costs increased by 1.6% from RMB 26,337.7 million in 2022 to RMB 26,756.4 million in 2023[33] - The gross profit increased by 29.0% from RMB 9,039.3 million in 2022 to RMB 11,662.5 million in 2023, with the gross margin rising from 25.6% to 30.4%[35] - The total operating expenses increased by 27.0% from RMB 1,302.8 million in 2022 to RMB 1,654.6 million in 2023[36] - The interest income increased by 40.3% from RMB 503.7 million in 2022 to RMB 706.8 million in 2023[37] - The interest expense increased by 52.0% from RMB 190.5 million in 2022 to RMB 289.5 million in 2023[37] - The financial instruments fair value change income increased by 255.7% from RMB 46.2 million in 2022 to RMB 164.5 million in 2023[37] - The foreign exchange gain decreased by 36.5% from RMB 147.3 million in 2022 to RMB 93.5 million in 2023[37] - Income tax expense increased by 18.7% from RMB 1,633.3 million in 2022 to RMB 1,938.6 million in 2023, with the overall tax rate decreasing by 1.6% due to a tax refund of RMB 207.1 million received in the third quarter[38] - Net profit increased by 31.5% from RMB 6,659.0 million in 2022 to RMB 8,754.5 million in 2023[39] - The asset-liability ratio increased from 30.6% in 2022 to 31.9% in 2023[40] - Cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments totaled RMB 12,333.9 million, RMB 686.6 million, and RMB 7,454.6 million respectively as of December 31, 2023, with 91.8% held by subsidiaries in China and 85.4% denominated in RMB[41] - Outstanding bank loan principal increased from RMB 5,394.4 million in 2022 to RMB 7,766.0 million in 2023, with a weighted average interest rate of 1.6% for short-term bank loans[41] - Capital expenditures totaled approximately RMB 6.7 billion in 2023, down from RMB 7.4 billion in 2022, with future capital expenditures to be funded by existing cash balances and other financing methods[46] - Capital commitments amounted to RMB 4.6 billion as of December 31, 2023, primarily related to the construction of office buildings, sorting centers, and warehouse facilities[46] - The company declared a final dividend of $0.62 per ADS and ordinary share for 2023, representing a 68% increase from 2022, with a payout ratio of 40%[26] - A semi-annual cash dividend policy was adopted starting in 2024, with total semi-annual dividends not less than 40% of the distributable profit for the fiscal year[27] - The share repurchase program was expanded by $500 million to a total of $2 billion, with the effective period extended to June 30, 2025[28] - The company expects the total parcel volume for 2024 to be in the range of 34.73 billion to 35.64 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 15% to 18%[29] - The company's distributable reserves amounted to RMB 26.9 billion as of December 31, 2023[111] - The company approved a special dividend of $0.37 per ADS for 2022, payable to shareholders on record by April 6, 2023[109] - The company declared a final dividend of $0.62 per ADS and ordinary share for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, payable by April 10, 2024[109] - The company issued $1 billion in convertible senior notes in August 2022, with a 1.50% annual interest rate, maturing on September 1, 2027[108] - As of December 31, 2023, the $1 billion in convertible senior notes remain unexercised[108] - Less than 30% of the company's total revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, came from its top five customers, and less than 30% of total procurement came from its top five suppliers[103] - The company made charitable donations totaling RMB 8.2 million during the reporting period[107] - The company maintains the required public float percentage as per listing rules[107] - No bonds were issued by the company during the reporting period[107] Operational Infrastructure - The company operates a network covering 99% of cities and counties in China, with approximately 6,000 direct network partners, over 31,000 pickup and delivery points, and more than 110,000 end stations as of December 31, 2023[20] - The logistics infrastructure includes 99 sorting centers, 464 automated sorting lines, and over 3,900 trunk lines served by more than 10,000 self-owned trucks, including over 9,200 high-capacity vehicles[21] - The company’s proprietary Zhongtian system supports daily high-throughput processing of over 100 million orders, utilizing real-time monitoring, order scheduling, and predictive algorithms[22] - The comprehensive unit cost for sorting and transportation decreased in 2023 compared to 2022 due to ongoing digitalization and intelligent upgrades[23] - The company operates under a network partner model, providing express delivery services in China[50] Corporate Governance and Leadership - The company has not separated the roles of Chairman and CEO, currently held by Mr. Lai Meisong, to ensure consistent internal leadership and more effective strategic planning[137] - The Board of Directors includes 3 executive directors, 2 non-executive directors, and 5 independent non-exec directors, maintaining a balance of power and efficient decision-making[137] - The company has established formal and informal channels to ensure the Board receives independent views and opinions, with half of the Board members being independent non-exec directors[142] - Independent non-exec directors' independence is assessed annually, and they can seek independent professional advice at the company's expense if needed[142] - Directors are required to retire by rotation at least once every three years, with Mr. Huang Qin, Mr. Herman Yu, and Mr. Gao Zunming set to retire at the 2024 AGM[143] - Mr. Chen Xudong, appointed as a non-exec director on June 15, 2023, will retire at the AGM but is eligible for re-election[143] - The company has adopted a code of conduct for securities transactions that is no less stringent than the Model Code for Securities Transactions by Directors of Listed Issuers[138] - The company received an exemption from strict compliance with certain provisions of the Model Code for a trading plan by Mr. Wang Jilei[139] - All directors and relevant employees confirmed compliance with the code of conduct and the Model Code during the reporting period[139] - The company has complied with all code provisions of the Corporate Governance Code except for the separation of Chairman and CEO roles[137] - The board of directors held 8 meetings during the reporting period[144] - The company held one annual general meeting, one extraordinary general meeting, and 11 committee meetings during the reporting period[144] - The next annual general meeting is scheduled for June 18, 2024[144] - The audit committee held 4 meetings during the reporting period[150] - The audit committee reviewed and approved the financial results for the fourth quarter and the consolidated financial statements for the fiscal years ending December 31, 2022, and December 31, 2023[150] - The audit committee met with the company's independent auditor, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu[150] - The audit committee reviewed the effectiveness of the company's internal audit function and its responsibilities under the corporate governance code[150] - The audit committee discussed accounting policies, internal controls, and financial reporting matters with senior management[150] - The independent auditor audited the consolidated financial statements of the group[150] - The compensation committee held three meetings during the reporting period to review and propose executive and director compensation terms[152] - The compensation range for senior management in 2023 was between RMB 1 million and RMB 6 million, with 3 executives earning RMB 1-5 million and 1 executive earning RMB 5-6 million[153] - The nomination and corporate governance committee held two meetings to review board structure, diversity policy, and director succession planning[155] - The environmental, social, and governance (ESG) committee held two meetings to adopt ESG policies and review performance metrics[157] - The company has established a director nomination policy to ensure board diversity and alignment with business needs[158] - The company has adopted a Board Diversity Policy, with 10 directors including 9 male and 1 female (10% of the board)[159] - As of December 31, 2023, the company has 23,554 employees, with 15,072 male (64%) and 8,482 female (36%)[160] - The company approved a semi-annual cash dividend policy, with at least 40% of distributable profits to be paid as dividends starting from 2024[161] - No significant fraud or misconduct impacting financial statements or operations was found in 2023[162] - The company has adopted an Anti-Corruption Policy to ensure ethical business practices and compliance with anti-corruption laws[163] - All directors have met continuous professional development requirements through training and reading materials[164] - The board is responsible for preparing the financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2023, with no significant uncertainties affecting the company's ability to continue as a going concern[165] - The company's risk management and internal control systems are reviewed annually by the Board of Directors, ensuring they are effective and adequate[166] - The company paid RMB 18.64 million for audit services and RMB 920,000 for non-audit services (tax and other consulting services) in 2023[169] - Shareholders can request a special general meeting if they hold at least 10% of the voting rights, and the meeting must be held within 21 days of the request[171] - The company adopted a new set of articles of association on May 1, 2023, allowing for electronic or hybrid general meetings[175] - The Board of Directors adopted a shareholder communication policy on April 20, 2023, to enhance investor relations and ensure timely and accurate information disclosure[174] Shareholder Structure and Equity - Lai Meisong holds 206,100,000 Class B ordinary shares, representing 100% of the Class B shares[177] - Lai Meisong holds 4,989,947 Class A ordinary shares, representing 0.82% of the Class A shares[177] - Wang Jilei holds 42,181,499 Class A ordinary shares, representing 6.95% of the Class A shares[177] - Lai Meisong holds 195,000,000 shares in TuXi Tech (Cayman) Inc., representing 12.46% of the issued shares[181] - Lai Meisong holds 120,000,000 shares in Zhejiang Tongyu Smart Industry Development Co., Ltd., representing 75% of the issued shares[181] - Lai Meisong holds 206,100,000 shares in ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., representing 34.35% of the issued shares[181] - Wang Jilei holds 45,000,000 shares in TuXi Tech (Cayman) Inc., representing 2.87% of the issued shares[181] - Wang Jilei holds 60,000,000 shares in ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., representing 10% of the issued shares[181] - Hu Hongqun holds 2,500,000 shares in TuXi Tech (Cayman) Inc., representing 0.15% of the issued shares[181] - Hu Hongqun holds 120,000,000 shares in Zhejiang Tongyu Smart Industry Development Co., Ltd., representing 75% of the issued shares[181] - SCTS Capital Pte. Ltd. holds 118,585,225 A类普通股 (L) representing 19.55% of the total shares[184] - Alibaba Group Holding Limited holds 71,941,287 A类普通股 (L) representing 11.86% of the total shares[184] - Alibaba ZT Investment Limited holds 57,870,370 A类普通股 (L) representing 9.54% of the total shares[185] - Mr. Jianfa Lai holds 66,252,639 A类普通股 (L) representing 10.92% of the total shares[185] - Invesco Advisers, Inc. holds 42,154,941 A类普通股 (L) representing 6.95% of the total shares[185] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. holds 40,743,250 A类普通股 (L) representing 6.71% of the total shares[185] - Zto Lms Holding Limited holds 206,100,000 B类普通股 (L) representing 100.00% of the total shares[185] - Alibaba is considered the beneficial owner of 71,941,287 A类普通股 held by Ali ZT, Cainiao Smart, NRF, Taobao, and Cainiao Hong Kong[186] - Mr. Jianfa Lai has the right to direct the sale of 33,598 A类普通股 held by ZTO ES[187] - Mr. Jilei Wang has the right to direct the sale of 120,000 A类普通股 held by ZTO ES[188] - 3,616,200 Class A ordinary shares (long position) and 619,800 Class A ordinary shares (short position) are held through physically settled listed derivatives[189] - 3,741,666 Class A ordinary shares (short position) are held through physically settled unlisted derivatives[189] - 456,093 Class A ordinary shares (long position) and 674,302 Class A ordinary shares (short position) are held through cash-settled unlisted derivatives[189] - 3,304,415 Class A ordinary shares (long position) and 12,816 Class A ordinary shares (short position) are held through listed derivatives that are convertible instruments[189] - Lai Meisong holds an interest in 206,100,000 Class B ordinary shares through Zto Lms Holding Limited[189] - The 2016 Plan has a cap of 21,000,000 shares and no new shares will be issued for awards under the plan[192] - As of March 31, 2024, 5,592,500 Class A ordinary shares in the form of restricted share units have been granted under the 2016 Plan[192] - The 2016 Plan allows for the granting of stock options, restricted shares, or other types of awards approved by the plan administrator[194] - The 2016 Plan has a remaining term of approximately two years and can be amended or terminated by the board of directors[199] - Awards under the 2016 Plan are evidenced by award agreements that specify the terms, conditions, and restrictions of each award[195] - 361,035 restricted share units were vested during the reporting period[200] - 23,830 restricted share units were

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and investment strategy of Li Xiaoxing, a prominent fund manager at Yinhua Fund, as of the first quarter of 2024, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook on various sectors amid market adjustments and macroeconomic recovery [1]. Fund Performance - As of the end of Q1 2024, Li Xiaoxing manages a total fund asset size of 27.628 billion yuan, with the best-performing fund being Yinhua Xinyi Flexible Allocation Mixed A, which saw a net value growth rate of -5.51% [1]. - The top ten holdings of the fund have seen changes, with new additions including ZTO Express (02057), Dongfang Wealth (300069.SZ), Salt Lake Co. (000792.SZ), and Zhongmin Resources (002738.SZ) [1]. Sector Analysis - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer industry faces challenges such as insufficient demand and increased competition. However, after three years of valuation adjustments, most consumer stocks are now valued below historical averages, with a focus on high-quality factors expected to perform well in 2024 [3]. - **Pharmaceuticals**: The pharmaceutical sector is under pressure due to high performance comparisons from the previous year, but potential improvements in fundamentals may present investment opportunities [3]. - **Strategic Emerging Industries**: Li Xiaoxing is optimistic about sectors like semiconductors and defense technology, anticipating a recovery in demand driven by AI and other technological advancements [3][4]. - **Renewable Energy**: The lithium battery materials sector is expected to see demand exceed expectations, while the photovoltaic industry is stabilizing after price declines. Wind energy, particularly offshore, remains a strong growth area [3]. - **Defense Industry**: The defense sector is poised for recovery as demand is expected to rebound, with a focus on aerospace and missile technology [4]. - **AI Industry**: The AI sector is viewed as a long-term growth area, with an emphasis on companies that can deliver sustainable earnings [4]. - **Internet Sector**: Internet companies are experiencing a bottoming out of valuations, with potential for growth driven by AI technology [4]. Investment Strategy - Li Xiaoxing emphasizes investing in companies with strong cash flows and market positions, particularly in high-end liquor, white goods, and growth sectors like snacks and cosmetics [3]. - The banking sector is expected to face short-term pressure, but declining deposit rates may alleviate some margin pressures in the future [4]. - The coal sector is gaining recognition for its stable profitability, while the metals sector is benefiting from anticipated interest rate cuts [5]. Fund Manager Performance - During Li Xiaoxing's tenure managing the Yinhua Small and Medium Cap Selected Fund, the cumulative return reached 90.45%, with an average annual return of 7.6% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating to ZTO Express-W (02057.HK/ZTO.N) [2] Core Views - ZTO Express is a high-margin player in the mid-to-low-end e-commerce express delivery sector, demonstrating resilience through market cycles [2] - From 2014 to 2023, ZTO's business volume grew 16x, profits increased 21x, with an average gross margin of 29% and diluted ROE of 13% [2] - The express delivery industry is entering a period of rising returns as the capital cycle nears its end, with capital expenditure peaking in 2021 for the industry and 2023 for companies [3] - ZTO's market share increased from 15% in 2016 to 23% in 2023, while its profit share among the "Tongda" group rose from 30% to 62% [3] - The company is positioned at a triple inflection point: easing price wars, improving industry structure, and enhanced liquidity through inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3] Company Background - ZTO operates in the mid-to-low-end e-commerce express delivery sector, with over 90% of its parcels being e-commerce related [14] - Despite being the last among the "Tongda" group to be established, ZTO has become the industry leader through innovative strategies and a shared network model [15] - The company's business volume CAGR reached 32% over the past decade, with 2023 volume estimated at 30.2 billion parcels [17] - ZTO's franchise model, combined with its shared network mechanism, has enabled rapid expansion and cost efficiency [19][20] - The company maintains a dual-class share structure, with founder Lai Meisong holding 25.9% and Alibaba as the second-largest shareholder with 8.8% [22] Market Supply and Demand - The express delivery industry is transitioning to the fourth stage of the capital cycle, characterized by improved supply-side conditions and rising returns [32] - Demand growth remains resilient due to trends in parcel miniaturization, increasing e-commerce penetration in lower-tier markets, and rising consumer spending power [36] - Short-term demand is driven by the continuation of parcel miniaturization trends, with low-price e-commerce platforms contributing significantly to GMV growth [38] - Medium-term growth potential lies in the untapped e-commerce penetration in lower-tier markets, where internet penetration and per capita consumption are still growing [40] - Long-term industry growth will follow consumption trends, potentially aligning with the growth rates of total retail sales and online retail sales [41] Industry Landscape - The mid-to-low-end express delivery sector is shaped by three key factors: policy, supply-demand dynamics, and e-commerce capital [45] - Policy changes, particularly the 2021 express delivery regulations, have played a crucial role in stabilizing the industry and improving profitability [49] - ZTO's competitive advantage stems from its cost and efficiency leadership, supported by scale, investment, and management capabilities [51] - The company's scale advantage is evident in its leading position in daily parcel volume, with over 45 million parcels per day in 2023 [52] - ZTO's strategic investments in infrastructure, including land, buildings, and transportation equipment, have created significant competitive barriers [54][55] Financial Performance and Valuation - ZTO's financial performance demonstrates industry-leading profitability, with a 2022 gross margin of 25.6% and net margin of 18.8% [25] - The company's cash flow position is strong, with 2022 operating cash flow reaching RMB 11.5 billion and cash reserves leading the mid-to-low-end express sector [26] - For 2024-2026, the report forecasts EPS of RMB 12.55, 14.69, and 17.16 per share, respectively [3] - The target price is set at HKD 207.34 for the Hong Kong-listed shares and USD 26.17 for the US-listed shares, based on a 15x PE multiple for 2024 [72] - Compared to domestic peers, ZTO commands a valuation premium due to its leading market position and profitability [72]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][23]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 38.42 billion yuan, an adjusted net profit of 9.01 billion yuan, and an adjusted net profit attributable to the parent of 9.00 billion yuan for 2023, representing year-on-year growth of 8.6%, 32.3%, and 29.4% respectively [5]. - The company achieved a package volume of 30.2 billion pieces in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, and expanded its market share by 0.8 percentage points to 22.9% [6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of $0.62 per share for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, and has announced a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% for 2024 [6][8]. Revenue Analysis - The core express business revenue increased from 34.16 billion yuan to 37.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, with express service revenue accounting for 92.4% of total revenue [6]. - The average revenue per package decreased by 11.3% to 0.16 yuan, with 0.05 yuan attributed to incremental subsidies [6]. Cost Analysis - Total operating costs for 2023 were recorded at 26.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.6% [6]. - The company benefited from economies of scale, optimized transportation routes, and a decrease in fuel prices, leading to a 12.1% year-on-year decline in unit transportation costs [6]. Profitability - The gross profit for 2023 was 11.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, with the gross margin improving by 4.8 percentage points to 30.4% [6]. - The operating profit margin increased by 4.1 percentage points to 26.0% for the year [6]. Future Projections - The company expects a package volume of 34.73 to 35.64 billion pieces in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% to 18% [8]. - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 44.25 billion yuan, 49.28 billion yuan, and 52.84 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 11.4%, and 7.2% [8].

研究报告Research Report 25 Mar 2024 中通快递（开曼） ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US) 业绩符合预期，分红、回购超预期 Results in Line with Expectations; Dividends and Share Repurchase Program Exceed Expectations 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 维持优于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM 公司发布 23Q4 及 23年全年业绩： 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 23Q4 公司实现营业收入 106.2 亿元/+7.6%，实现净利润 22.1 亿元 现价 US$21.02 目标价 US$31.40 /+3.8%，调整后净利润 22.1 亿元/+4.4%。23 年全年公司营业收入 384.2 亿元/+8.6%，实现净利润 87.5 亿元/+31.5%，调整后净利润 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 90.06 亿元/+32.3%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [9][32][36] Core Views - ZTO Express reported a 2023 revenue of 38.42 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 8.75 billion yuan, up 28.5% year-on-year [5][11] - The company maintained its leading position in the e-commerce express delivery sector, with a service volume of 30.2 billion parcels in 2023, reflecting a growth of 23.8% and a market share of 22.9% [6][13] - The report anticipates a package volume growth of 15-18% for 2024, with a focus on optimizing digital operations and enhancing service quality [8][31] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 166.00 - Total shares: 8.23 billion, circulating shares: 6.17 billion - Total market capitalization: HKD 136.62 billion, circulating market capitalization: HKD 10.24 billion - 52-week high/low: HKD 236.4 / 124.1 - Debt-to-asset ratio: 31.86% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 13.58 [3][4] Financial Performance - In 2023, ZTO Express achieved a revenue of 38.42 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.75 billion yuan, and an adjusted net profit of 9 billion yuan [5][11] - The fourth quarter revenue was 10.62 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.19 billion yuan [11] - The company’s gross profit increased by 29.0% to 11.66 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 4.8 percentage points to 30.4% [24][30] Market Position - ZTO Express's service volume reached 30.2 billion parcels in 2023, with a market share increase of 0.8 percentage points [6][13] - The average revenue per parcel decreased by 12.0% to 1.175 yuan due to intense price competition [16][19] - The company’s single parcel cost decreased by 13.2% to 0.723 yuan, with transportation costs down by 12.0% to 0.450 yuan [21][30] Future Outlook - For 2024, ZTO Express expects a package volume of 34.73 billion to 35.64 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 15-18% [8][31] - The board approved a semi-annual cash dividend plan, with a total dividend amount not less than 40% of the distributable profit for the fiscal year [31] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 42.65 billion, 47.23 billion, and 51.43 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 9.77 billion, 11.08 billion, and 12.37 billion yuan [32][33]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for the company, indicating an expected total return performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - The company reported a 7.6% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2023, reaching 10.6 billion yuan, and an adjusted (Non-GAAP) net profit increase of 4.4% to 2.2 billion yuan, contributing to an annual revenue growth of 8.6% to 38.4 billion yuan and a 32.3% rise in adjusted net profit to 9 billion yuan for the full year 2023 [5][6]. - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency while maintaining service quality, achieving a 32.0% year-on-year increase in package volume in Q4 2023 to 8.7 billion pieces, and a total annual package volume growth of 23.8% to 30.2 billion pieces, with market share rising from 22.1% in 2022 to 22.9% in 2023 [5][6]. - The company anticipates a package volume growth of 15-18% in 2024, aiming to solidify its competitive advantage [5]. Financial Summary - For FY 2023, the company reported revenues of 38.4 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 41.9 billion yuan for FY 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 9.1% [7]. - The EBITDA for FY 2023 was 13.9 billion yuan, with expectations of 15.4 billion yuan for FY 2024, indicating a growth rate of 11.2% [7]. - The net profit for FY 2023 was 8.7 billion yuan, with a forecasted net profit of 9.5 billion yuan for FY 2024, representing an 8.2% growth rate [7]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout, announcing a regular cash dividend of at least 40% of the distributable profits starting in 2024, alongside a share buyback program expansion to 2 billion USD [6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a Non-GAAP net profit growth rate of 5.2% for FY 2024, with an expected PE ratio of 13 times for 2024 [6][7]. - The company’s return on equity (ROAE) is expected to be 15.1% in FY 2024, slightly decreasing from 15.4% in FY 2023 [7][8]. - The net debt to equity ratio is projected to remain at a cash position, indicating a strong balance sheet [8].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 中通快递-W（02057） 证券研究报告 2024年03月 26日 投资评级 成本优化助推盈利提升，龙头企业强者恒强 行业 工业/工用运输 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 盈利高速增长，市场份额稳步提升 当前价格 166.9港元 目标价格 港元 公司发布 2023 年业绩公告：财务业绩上，23 年公司实现营业收入384.19 亿元，同比增长8.6%；实现调整后净利润 90.06 亿元，同比增长32.3%。 基本数据 23Q4公司实现营业收入106.19亿元，同比增长 7.6%；实现调整后净利润 港股总股本(百万股) 823.52 22.14亿元，同比增长4.4%。经营业绩上，23年公司完成业务量302.02亿 件，同比增长23.8%，23Q4 完成业务量 87.05 亿件，同比增长32.0%，均 港股总市值(百万港元) 137,445.80 高于行业同期增速19.4%、27.4%；因此23年公司市占率提高至22.9%，同 每股净资产(港元) 80.18 比+0.8pcts，稳坐行业龙头，同时与后位企业份额差距持续走扩。根据公司 资产负债率(%) 31.86 件量指引，公司24年有望实 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年03月25日 司 报 告 中通快递-W(02057) 行 业： 交通运输/物流 │ 港 投资评级： 买入（维持） 股 当前价格： 164.40港元 分红率提升至 40%，龙头地位稳固 - 公 目标价格： 225.73港元 司 事件： 年 基本数据 报 点 2023年，公司全年实现营收 384.19亿元，同比增长 8.6%，实现归母净利 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 812.87/812.87 评 润87.49亿元，同比增长28.5%。其中，2023年四季度实现收入106.19亿 流通市值(百万港元) 133,635.28 元，同比增长7.6%，实现归母净利润21.92亿元，同比增长1.4%。2023年 每股净资产(元) 74.19 公司每股派息0.62美元，分红率约为41.4%。 资产负债率(%) 33.08 ➢ 公司快递业务量同比增长24%，市占率提升至22.9% 一年内最高/最低(港元) 236.40/124.10 2023年，公司全年完成快递业务量 302.0 亿件，同比增长 23.8%，市场份 额为 22.9%，同比提升 0.8pct，龙头地位稳固。其中四季度公司完成快递 股 ...

公 司 研 究 中通快递-W（02057.HK）：业绩符合 2024年3月25日 强烈推荐/维持 预期，派息提升值得关注 东 中通快递-W 公司报告 兴 证 公司简介： 券 事件：公司发布2023年报，全年实现业务量302.0亿件,同比增长23.8%，市 中通快递是一家集快递、物流、电商、印务 股 场份额较去年提升0.8pct至22.9%，全年调整后净利润90.1亿元，同比增长 于一体的大型集团公司。公司通过全国网络 份 32.3%。四季度单季，公司实现业务量87.1亿件,同比增长32.0%，市场份额 等增值服务提供相应的快递服务，其运营模 有 较去年提升0.8pct至22.3%，单季调整后净利润22.1亿元，同比增长4.4%。 式为高度可扩展的网络合作伙伴模式。服务 限 项目有国内快递、国际快递、物流配送与仓 价格竞争激烈导致单票收入下降，直客业务优化基本完成：2023 年全年行业 储等，提供“门到门”服务和限时(当天件、 公 处于激烈的价格竞争状态，公司核心单票收入下降0.16元，同比下降11.3%， 次晨达、次日达等)服务，同时开展电子商 司 务配送、代收货款、签单返回、到付、代取 其中0.05元为增量 ...