Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) with a target price not specified [5][4]. Core Views - The express delivery industry is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand, which may lead to higher growth in delivery volumes and prices [1][2]. - The express delivery price decline reached 18% year-on-year in February 2025, but a recovery is anticipated as competition eases and demand increases [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered due to unexpected price declines, with projected net profits of 10.4 billion and 11.7 billion respectively, down from previous estimates [4]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The express delivery volume and price growth are expected to rise due to domestic demand stimulation in response to increased tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. [2]. - The domestic express delivery market is projected to see significant volume growth, potentially exceeding the growth rates observed in 2019 [2]. Price Trends - A significant drop in express delivery prices has been noted, but a cyclical recovery is expected as market conditions improve [3]. - The competitive landscape may stabilize, leading to a narrowing of price declines, which would benefit profitability for express delivery companies [3]. Financial Projections - The report has adjusted the profit forecasts for ZTO Express, projecting net profits of 10.4 billion, 11.7 billion, and 12.4 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.8, 8.8, and 8.3 [4].

颜惠萍认为，中国快递这张国家名片，不仅代表着中国形象和软实力，还展示了中国在快递领域的领先 地位——自动化分拣、智能仓储、大数据分析、无人机配送等技术取得显著进展，中国强大的制造业与 快速发展的电商行业也为快递企业出海提供产业支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，近年来，中国快递企业加速布局海外市场，越来越多中国快递企业出海成功。近 日，中通快递(02057)首席财务官颜惠萍作为中国企业女性高管代表之一，受邀出席巴西2025年洲际女 性论坛，介绍中国快递出海情况。 颜惠萍介绍，2024年中通快递全年实现包裹量340亿件，营收达442.81亿元。国际业务量7135.95万件， 营收32.24 亿元。国际跨境快递服务涵盖跨境进出口专线、集运、跨境冷链等，覆盖全球220多个国家和 地区。 中国快递出海底蕴十足 在颜惠萍看来，中国快递出海的信心在于规模效应、物流网络经验、技术升级、制造业与电商支撑、政 策支持和服务理念协同发展上。中国快递业务量连续多年位居世界第一，这种规模效应使得中国快递企 业具有显著优势。同时，企业积累的高效物流网络建设和管理经验可直接应用到海外市场，助其提升运 营效率和服务质量。 物流、仓储、运输、客服等 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Index for Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen interconnection logistics shows a recent performance with a 1.53% increase over the past month, a 3.20% decrease over the past three months, and a year-to-date decline of 3.20% [1] - The index is based on the comprehensive index samples and the China Securities 500 Index samples, reflecting the overall performance of securities listed in the interconnection range across the three markets [1] - The index's top ten holdings include companies such as Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (9.37%), SF Holding (6.77%), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (5.95%) [1] Group 2 - The industry composition of the index shows that railway transportation accounts for 18.28%, shipping for 17.98%, and express delivery for 16.64% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - In case of special circumstances, temporary adjustments to the index samples may occur, including the removal of companies that are delisted or undergo significant corporate changes [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Buy" [1] Core Views - ZTO Express reported an adjusted net profit of 10.2 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [2] - The company achieved operating revenue of 44.281 billion yuan in 2024, up 15.3% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 12.92 billion yuan, a 21.7% increase year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes ZTO's leading market share in the express delivery industry, with a focus on maintaining and enhancing its competitive position [5][7] Financial Summary - In 2024, ZTO Express's adjusted net profit was 10.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [2] - The operating revenue for 2024 was 44.281 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.3% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The company’s express delivery volume reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, marking a 12.6% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of approximately 19.4% [3] - The average revenue per package was 1.20 yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year, with Q4 2024 showing an increase to 1.24 yuan, a rise of 11.0% year-on-year [4] - The average cost per package decreased to approximately 0.68 yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, with significant improvements in operational efficiency [4] Operational Insights - ZTO Express aims to achieve a business volume of approximately 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion pieces in 2025, targeting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5] - The company is focusing on service quality, business volume, and profit as its three main priorities for 2025 [5] - The report highlights the ongoing growth potential in the express delivery industry, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [6][7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 is 10.44 billion yuan, 11.78 billion yuan, and 13.51 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 3.58%, 12.81%, and 14.73% [8] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on ZTO's strong market position and expected steady growth in volume and profit [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights ZTO Express's strong market position, with a leading market share of approximately 19.4% in the express delivery sector, despite a slight year-on-year decline of 1.5% [3][5] - The company achieved an adjusted net profit of 10.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [2][4] - ZTO Express is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected business volume for 2025 estimated between 40.8 billion and 42.2 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, ZTO Express reported total revenue of 44.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [2][9] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 10.15 billion yuan, with a quarterly performance in Q4 showing a revenue of 12.92 billion yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year [2][4] - The company’s single-piece express revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year to 1.20 yuan, with Q4 showing a more significant increase of 11.0% to 1.24 yuan [3][4] Operational Metrics - ZTO Express handled 34 billion pieces in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.6% [3][5] - The company’s single-piece express cost decreased by 6.0% year-on-year to approximately 0.68 yuan, benefiting from economies of scale and improved route planning [4] - The adjusted net profit per single piece remained stable at 0.30 yuan for the year, with Q4 showing an increase of 11.2% to 0.28 yuan [4] Market Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, with an estimated industry volume growth of 10-15% in 2025 [7] - ZTO Express is well-positioned to enhance its market share and profitability, supported by its scale and management advantages [8] - The report anticipates that ZTO Express will achieve adjusted net profits of 10.44 billion yuan, 11.78 billion yuan, and 13.51 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - ZTO Express reported a revenue growth of 15.3% year-on-year to RMB 44.28 billion for 2024, with a net profit of RMB 10.08 billion, reflecting a 12.0% increase [1][2]. - The company aims to refocus on volume and market share growth in 2025, expecting a volume increase of 20%-24%, which is above the industry growth rate [3][4]. - The company is likely to lower prices to gain market share, which may slow profit growth in the short term, but is expected to strengthen its market position in the long term [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, ZTO Express achieved a gross profit of RMB 13.72 billion, with a gross margin of 31.0% [2]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 10.08 billion, with a profit margin of 22.8% [2]. - The average revenue per package increased by 2.7% year-on-year to RMB 1.28, while the average cost per package rose by 1.9% to RMB 0.87 [2]. Market Position - ZTO Express handled 34 billion packages in 2024, marking a 12.6% increase, but its market share declined to 19.4%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year due to the abandonment of low-value packages [1][3]. - The company has seen a recovery in market share since Q3 2024 as it adjusts its operational strategies [1]. Future Projections - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down by 8.2% to RMB 9.85 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 10.23 billion [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 197.6 and USD 25.4, based on a PE ratio of 15.0x for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2][6] Core Insights - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 44.28 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, with adjusted net profit reaching 10.15 billion CNY, up 12.7% [6] - The company aims to prioritize market share, indicating an expectation of intensified price competition in the industry [6] - The report has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now predicting adjusted net profits of 9.904 billion CNY and 10.95 billion CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 38.419 billion CNY - 2024: 44.281 billion CNY - 2025E: 49.173 billion CNY - 2026E: 55.692 billion CNY - 2027E: 62.710 billion CNY - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 9%, 15%, 11%, 13%, and 13% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 9.006 billion CNY - 2024: 10.150 billion CNY - 2025E: 9.904 billion CNY - 2026E: 10.950 billion CNY - 2027E: 12.525 billion CNY - Year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are projected at 32%, 13%, -2%, 11%, and 14% respectively [5] Market Position and Performance - In 2024, ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 34 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, with a market share of 19.4% [6] - The average revenue per package for 2024 was 1.30 CNY, with a slight increase in Q4 to 1.32 CNY [6] - The company maintains a strong competitive position, with the highest market share and service efficiency among peers [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company, ZTO Express, reported a revenue of 44.28 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.82 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.8%, while the adjusted net profit was 10.15 billion yuan, up by 12.7% [4][13][22] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.92 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with a net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, up 8.7% [4][13] - The express delivery volume for the company reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, a growth of 12.6%, contributing to a total express business revenue of 40.95 billion yuan, which is a 15.4% increase [5][14] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 172.2 HKD, with a total market capitalization of 138.5 billion HKD. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 32.13% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.63 [3] - The largest shareholder is ZTO Lms Holding Limited [3] Financial Performance - The company is expected to continue focusing on service quality, business scale, and profitability balance. For 2025, capital expenditure is projected to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with business volume anticipated to reach 40.8-42.2 billion pieces, reflecting a growth of 20%-24% [7][23] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 54.5 billion yuan, 62 billion yuan, and 67.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.1%, 13.8%, and 8.9% respectively. Net profits for the same period are expected to be 10.81 billion yuan, 11.88 billion yuan, and 12.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.6%, 9.9%, and 8.2% [7][23] Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced core costs, with unit transportation costs decreasing by 8.9% to 0.41 yuan due to improved routing and loading rates. Overall, core costs have been further reduced [6][18] - The gross profit for 2024 increased by 17.6% to 13.72 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 0.6 percentage points to 31.0% [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company, ZTO Express, reported a revenue of 44.28 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.82 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.8%, while the adjusted net profit was 10.15 billion yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year [4][13][22] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with a net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, up 8.7% [4][13] - The express delivery volume for the company reached 34 billion pieces in 2024, a growth of 12.6%, contributing to a total express business revenue of 40.95 billion yuan, which is a 15.4% increase [5][14] - The company has focused on improving efficiency and reducing core costs, with unit transportation costs decreasing by 8.9% to 0.41 yuan [6][18] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a capital expenditure of approximately 5.2 billion yuan for 2025, continuing a downward trend, with expected business volume growth of 20%-24% [7][23] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 54.50 billion yuan, 62.00 billion yuan, and 67.51 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.1%, 13.8%, and 8.9% respectively. The net profit for the same period is expected to be 10.81 billion yuan, 11.88 billion yuan, and 12.86 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.6%, 9.9%, and 8.2% [7][10][23] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 11.6X, 10.6X, and 9.8X, indicating a relatively low valuation [7][23] Operational Efficiency - The company has seen an increase in high-value packages and a reduction in core costs, with the overall gross profit rising by 17.6% to 13.72 billion yuan, and the gross margin improving by 0.6 percentage points to 31.0% [19][22]

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call March 18, 2025 08:30 PM ET Company Participants Sophie Li - Director - Capital MarketsHuiping Yan - Chief Financial OfficerAaron Wu - Director Conference Call Participants Ronald Keung - AnalystQianlei Fan - Analyst Operator Please also note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sophie Li, Head of Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Sophie Li Thank you, Rako. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. The Com ...