Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$19.30, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HK$15.50 [1]. Core Insights - The establishment of a joint venture is seen as beneficial for Li Ning, allowing the company to focus on the domestic market while leveraging external expertise for overseas expansion. The joint venture aims to achieve revenue of US$1 billion in its fourth year, reflecting the company's commitment to international growth [4][5]. - Li Ning's overseas business currently accounts for approximately 2% of total revenue, with expectations for significant growth through the joint venture [4]. - The financial projections indicate a modest revenue growth of 2.2% in 2024, with further increases of 3.9% and 3.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: RMB 28.2 billion in 2024, RMB 29.3 billion in 2025, and RMB 30.4 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits of RMB 3.08 billion, RMB 3.28 billion, and RMB 3.47 billion [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.19 for 2024, RMB 1.27 for 2025, and RMB 1.34 for 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 times for 2025 [1][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at 20% above the current price of 15.5 HKD [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in retail sales across offline channels, while e-commerce sales are showing growth. The total number of sales points has increased to 6,281, with a net addition of 42 points in the last quarter [2][3]. - A joint venture has been established to develop and operate the Li Ning brand outside mainland China, with a total capital of 200 million HKD. This move aims to enhance brand reputation and leverage cross-border resources [4]. - Supply chain integration has improved efficiency and product quality, with a focus on digital management and cost control strategies [5]. - Innovations in retail channels and logistics management are enhancing product turnover and distribution efficiency [6]. Summary by Sections Basic Data - Total shares outstanding: 2,584.48 million - Total market capitalization: 40,059.45 million HKD - Net asset value per share: 10.98 HKD - Debt-to-asset ratio: 27.10% - 1-year high/low price: 31.65/12.56 HKD [1]. Sales Performance - As of Q3 2024, retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) have decreased, with offline channels seeing a significant drop. E-commerce, however, has shown a positive trend [2][3]. Joint Venture Development - The joint venture aims to expand the Li Ning brand internationally, with significant cash contributions from various partners, ensuring a majority stake for Li Ning Group and its founder [4]. Supply Chain and Efficiency - The company has expanded its supply chain capacity, enhancing overall efficiency and product quality through strict supplier selection and digital management [5]. Retail and Logistics Innovations - The logistics management platform is improving, with new logistics centers set to enhance product flow and distribution efficiency [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.95 HKD based on a 19x valuation for 2024 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue for Q3 2024, with overall sales for the Li Ning brand experiencing a mid-single-digit percentage decrease compared to the previous half-year. Offline channels saw a high single-digit decline, while e-commerce channels achieved mid-single-digit growth [1]. - As of September 30, 2024, the number of sales points in China reached 6,281, a net increase of 42 from the previous quarter. This includes a net decrease of 14 in retail and a net increase of 55 in wholesale [1]. - The establishment of a joint venture with Sequoia to expand into international markets is noted, with the company investing 5.8 million HKD for a 29% stake. The financial impact of this venture is expected to be limited, with a payment of 58 million HKD in Q4 [1]. - Despite the pressure on retail revenue, the company is expected to manage inventory effectively and maintain a low double-digit net profit margin for the year, supported by strict cost control [1]. Financial Forecast and Ratios - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1.20, 1.37, and 1.54 CNY, down from previous estimates of 1.24, 1.47, and 1.69 CNY [2][7]. - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 25,803 million CNY, with a growth rate of 2.4%, followed by 7.6% and 8.6% in subsequent years [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 48.4% in 2023 to 49.2% in 2024, while the net margin is projected to decrease from 11.5% to 11.0% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning (2331) [2] Core Views - Q3 sales met expectations, with healthy discount inventory and strong National Day sales performance [2] - Q4 sales are expected to improve significantly due to a low base effect [2] - Long-term growth is supported by brand strength, product innovation, and refined operations [2] - Overseas business is promising with the establishment of a joint venture with Sequoia [2] Financial Performance - Q3 total channel sales declined by mid-single digits year-over-year, with offline sales down by high single digits and online sales up by mid-single digits [2] - Terminal discounts deepened, with offline discounts increasing by low single digits year-over-year [2] - Inventory-to-sales ratio was approximately 5 months as of September, with a healthy inventory age structure [2] - National Day sales showed improvement both online and offline, with positive sales growth since October [2] - Full-year 2024 revenue growth is expected to be low single digits, with a low double-digit profit margin [2] Joint Venture and Overseas Expansion - Li Ning established a joint venture with Sequoia to develop and operate the Li Ning brand outside mainland China [2] - The listed company and Mr Li Ning hold a combined 55% stake in the joint venture, with an investment of approximately HKD 58 million [2] - The joint venture is expected to accelerate the brand's internationalization with Sequoia's resources and expertise [2] - The listed company has the right to reclaim partial equity after 4 years and full equity after 8 years, ensuring control over overseas operations [2] Financial Forecasts - Net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are maintained at RMB 3 20 billion, RMB 3 62 billion, and RMB 3 88 billion, respectively [2] - Corresponding P/E ratios are 12x, 11x, and 10x for 2024-2026 [2] Market Data - Current stock price: HKD 15 28 [2] - 52-week price range: HKD 12 92 - HKD 30 20 [3] - Current market capitalization: HKD 39 491 million [3] Peer Comparison - Li Ning's 2024E P/E ratio is 13x, compared to the peer average of 12x [6] - 2024E EPS is HKD 1 14, with 2025E and 2026E EPS at HKD 1 29 and HKD 1 39, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$19.30, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$15.28 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that Li Ning's 3Q24 operational performance met expectations, with projected revenue and net profit for 2024 expected to grow by 2.2% and decline by 3.3% respectively, reaching RMB 28.22 billion and RMB 3.08 billion [4][5]. - The report maintains earnings forecasts and the "Buy" rating, with a target price of HK$19.30, corresponding to a 14x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 3Q24 results showed a slight decline in overall revenue (excluding Li Ning Young), with online sales growing while offline sales faced a decline [4]. - The report forecasts a 0.2% increase in total revenue for 2024, driven by a strong performance in professional channels and a low base effect for the upcoming quarter [5]. - The projected revenue figures for 2024-2026 are RMB 28.22 billion, RMB 29.33 billion, and RMB 30.38 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.08 billion, RMB 3.28 billion, and RMB 3.47 billion [6][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report anticipates a slight decrease in gross margin for 2024, with an expected increase in sales and management expense ratios due to higher marketing expenditures and depreciation costs [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are RMB 1.19, RMB 1.27, and RMB 1.34 respectively [6][7]. Market Position - Li Ning's market strategy includes increasing retail discounts to attract customers, while online discounts have shown improvement [5]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a healthy inventory structure, with over 80% of products having a shelf life of less than six months [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HKD 14.89, indicating a potential downside of 2.5% from the current closing price of HKD 15.28 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The third quarter sales were pressured by foot traffic issues, with a low single-digit year-on-year decline in overall retail sales. Offline retail channels experienced a mid-single-digit decline, while online channels showed a middle single-digit growth [1][2]. - The fourth quarter is expected to perform better than the previous three quarters, driven by improved sales metrics and a favorable comparison to last year's low base. The company anticipates a recovery in sales during the National Day holiday, with offline sales achieving low single-digit growth and e-commerce channels experiencing a 30-40% increase [2][3]. - Discount rates are expected to remain under pressure due to poor foot traffic, leading to increased terminal discounting to maintain inventory levels. The management expects this trend to continue into the fourth quarter, although professional categories like badminton and running have shown strong performance [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue for Li Ning is projected to grow from RMB 25,803 million in 2022 to RMB 28,196 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2% in 2024 [3][6]. - Net profit is expected to decline from RMB 4,064 million in 2022 to RMB 2,952 million in 2024, with a significant drop of 20.7% in 2023 [3][6]. - The company maintains a gross margin improvement expectation of approximately 1 percentage point for the year, despite the anticipated challenges [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Li Ning (2331.HK) with a target price of HKD 15.94, reflecting a potential upside of 3.9% from the current price of HKD 15.3 [2][11]. Core Views - Li Ning's 3Q24 operational data slightly exceeded market expectations, but the company still significantly lags behind major domestic competitors. The management indicated increased short-term channel inventory pressure and highlighted substantial uncertainty regarding 4Q24 revenue performance [1]. - Despite improved earnings certainty for 2024, the lack of significant recovery in brand strength, fundamentals, and terminal sales trends suggests that investors should remain cautious about Li Ning's stock performance [1]. - The establishment of a joint venture with founder Li Ning and HongShan Venture aims to accelerate the brand's overseas expansion, although the current overseas business only accounts for about 2% of total revenue [1]. Summary by Sections 3Q24 Performance - Li Ning's overall channel revenue in 3Q24 declined in the mid-single digits year-on-year, which was slightly better than market expectations. Offline channel revenue fell in the high single digits, also better than expected [1]. - E-commerce revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, aligning with market expectations. The average selling price decreased in the mid-single digits, while sales volume remained stable [1]. 4Q24 Outlook - Management remains cautious about the outlook for 4Q24, citing that industry terminal demand has not shown significant improvement and that short-term inventory and discount pressures persist [1]. - The company aims to reduce the inventory turnover ratio to 4-5 months by year-end, with current inventory turnover at around 5 months [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 28,199 million (up 2.2% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 29,422 million (up 4.3% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 30,967 million (up 5.3% YoY) [3][4]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024E: RMB 3,005 million (down 5.7% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 3,297 million (up 9.7% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 3,570 million (up 8.3% YoY) [3][4]. Margins and Ratios - The gross margin is expected to expand by approximately 1 percentage point in 2024, despite a slight decline in the second half of 2024 due to increased discounts [1]. - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 12.2x for 2024E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.0% [3][6]. Inventory and Discounts - Management has increased retail discounts in 3Q24 to manage inventory levels, with offline discounts deepening in the low single digits [1]. - The overall inventory turnover ratio remains manageable, with expectations to improve by year-end [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 22.8, based on a 2024 PE of 18 times [1][4]. Core Insights - Li Ning's Q3 retail revenue saw a year-on-year decline in the mid-single digits across all platforms, with offline channels experiencing a high single-digit drop, while e-commerce recorded a mid-single-digit growth. The company anticipates a recovery in Q4 due to a low base effect [2]. - The introduction of a joint venture with Sequoia Capital aims to expand Li Ning's overseas market presence, with Li Ning investing HKD 58 million for a 29% stake, maintaining control over the joint venture [2]. - The company reported a healthy inventory turnover, with a 5-month turnover rate and 80% of inventory being new products, although discounts are expected to increase in Q4 due to traditional e-commerce shopping festivals [2]. Financial Projections - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is expected to be HKD 1.17, HKD 1.29, and HKD 1.43 respectively, with revenue growth rates of 2.5%, 7.9%, and 6.9% for the same years [3][8]. - The report indicates a decline in net profit for 2024, with a projected decrease of 4.7% compared to the previous year, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [3][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 48.4% in 2023 to 49.1% by 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 10.7% to 11.3% over the same period [3][11].

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 买入（维持评级） 事件 李宁 10.22 发布 3Q24 经营数据，全平台零售流水下滑中单位数， 其中线下渠道流水下滑高单位数（直营同比下滑中单位数，批发同 比下滑高单位数），电商流水同比增长中单位数，符合预期。 同日李宁发布成立合资公司公告，其全资子公司 LN Co 与 Founder Co、红杉中国成立合资公司，合计注资 2 亿港元，持股比例分别为 29%、26%、45%，创始人李宁先生与李宁公司合计对 JV 持股达 55%， 拟借助国际机构等多方资源探索国际业务发展。 经营分析 三季度流水仍承压，存货维持健康。由于客流整体偏弱，公司积极 动态调整折扣，并加大高性价比款、快反产品的投放，以减轻渠道 存货压力。3Q24 折扣同比加深低单位数、ASP 下降中单位数，销售 量同比微降低单位数。期末库销比 5 左右，略微高于去年同期，其 中直营略高于批发，且库龄 80%以上是 6 个月内新品，保持健康， 环比有提升主要系冬装、双十一备货加大所致。 展望 Q4 及全年：指引维持。公司国庆期间表现显著好转，线上流 水增长 30%~40%，线下流水回正至个位数增长。预计在旺季催化、 客流 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 22.8, based on a 2024 PE of 18 times [1][4]. Core Insights - Li Ning's Q3 retail revenue saw a year-on-year decline in the mid-single digits across all platforms, with offline channels experiencing a high single-digit drop, while e-commerce recorded a mid-single-digit growth. The company anticipates a recovery in Q4 due to a low base effect [2][3]. - The introduction of a joint venture with Sequoia Capital aims to expand Li Ning's overseas market presence, with Li Ning investing HKD 58 million for a 29% stake, maintaining control over the joint venture [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the expected EPS is projected at HKD 1.17, with forecasts of HKD 1.29 and HKD 1.43 for 2025 and 2026 respectively. Revenue is expected to grow from HKD 28.276 billion in 2024 to HKD 32.6 billion by 2026 [2][3][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 48.4% in 2023 to 49.1% by 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 11.3% by 2026 [3][11]. Product Performance - The lifestyle and running categories have shown strong performance, with the Soft series achieving cumulative sales of approximately 2 million pairs by Q3. The running category saw high double-digit revenue growth in Q3 [2][3]. - The company has launched new outdoor products to cater to diverse consumer needs, including the "万龙甲 BREATH" series jackets and "行" family outdoor shoes [2]. Inventory and Discounts - Inventory turnover for offline channels was around 5 months in Q3, with 80% of new products having a shelf life of less than 6 months. Discounts in offline channels have deepened slightly, while e-commerce discounts have improved [2][3][11]. - The company expects discount pressures in Q4 due to traditional e-commerce shopping festivals, but overall discounts for the year are anticipated to improve compared to the previous year [2].