Core Viewpoint - DBS has downgraded the earnings forecast for Beike-W (02423) for the fiscal years 2025 to 2026 by 17% to 19% based on adjusted transaction volume and cost assumptions [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Ratings - Beike is considered a preferred stock indicator for the housing market recovery, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite the downgrade [1] - The target price for Beike has been reduced from HKD 62.25 to HKD 52.09, while the US stock target price has decreased from USD 23.41 to USD 19.36 [1] Group 2: Performance Insights - Beike's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, but a decline in residential transaction volume weakened operational leverage, contributing to a lackluster performance for the quarter [1] - The guidance for Q4 2025 did not meet expectations, with net revenue and profit margin forecasts appearing conservative [1]

星展发布研报称，基于调整后交易总额及成本假设，下调贝壳-W(02423)2025至2026财年盈利预测17至 19%。贝壳为房市复苏指标股首选，重申"买入"评级，目标价由62.25港元下调至52.09港元。贝壳 (BEKE.US)美股目标价由23.41美元降至19.36美元。 该行称，贝壳2025年第三季度业绩符合预期。住宅交易总额下滑导致营运杠杆减弱，是本季表现平平的 主因。公司2025年第四季度指引未达预期，净收入与利润率预测偏保守。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that due to ongoing pressures in the real estate industry, the profit forecasts for Beike-W (02423) have been revised downwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 3.718 billion, 4.774 billion, and 5.820 billion yuan, representing decreases of 11%, 8%, and 4% respectively. The company, being a leader in real estate brokerage, is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate market, with significant growth potential in home decoration and rental sectors, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1 - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of 23.1 billion yuan, net profit of 750 million yuan, and Non-GAAP net profit of 1.29 billion yuan, showing year-on-year changes of +2.1%, -36.1%, and -27.8% respectively [2]. - The company's revenue growth is slowing down throughout the year, with Q3 showing a 2.1% increase year-on-year. The second-hand housing GTV was 505.6 billion yuan, with revenue of 6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of +5.8% and -3.6% respectively [3]. - The new housing GTV in Q3 was 196.3 billion yuan, with revenue of 6.6 billion yuan, showing year-on-year declines of -13.8% and -14.1% respectively [3]. Group 2 - The home decoration and rental businesses achieved revenues of 4.3 billion and 5.7 billion yuan in Q3, with year-on-year growth of +2.1% and +45.3% respectively. Both segments have shown a gradual decline in revenue growth over the past two years [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 21.4%, down by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the revenue share from the higher-margin new housing business [5]. - The company has been enhancing shareholder returns, with a share buyback amounting to 280 million USD in Q3, marking the highest quarterly buyback in nearly two years [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that due to ongoing pressures in the real estate sector, the profit forecasts for Beike-W (02423) have been revised downwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 3.718 billion, 4.774 billion, and 5.820 billion yuan, representing decreases of 11%, 8%, and 4% respectively. The company, being a leader in real estate brokerage, is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate market, with significant growth potential in home decoration and rental sectors, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Q3 Performance - In Q3, the company reported revenues, net profits, and Non-GAAP net profits of 23.1 billion, 750 million, and 1.29 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +2.1%, -36.1%, and -27.8% [1]. - The company's revenue growth has been declining throughout the year, with the second-hand housing GTV and revenue for Q3 at 505.6 billion and 6 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of +5.8% and -3.6% [2]. - The new housing GTV and revenue for Q3 were 196.3 billion and 6.6 billion yuan, showing year-on-year declines of -13.8% and -14.1% [2]. Group 2: Business Segments - The home decoration and rental businesses achieved revenues of 4.3 billion and 5.7 billion yuan in Q3, with year-on-year growth rates of +2.1% and +45.3% respectively [2]. - The profit margin for home decoration was 32.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved procurement costs and efficiency [2]. - The rental business achieved a profit margin of 8.7%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to improved gross margins in the "Worry-Free Rental" service [2]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin in Q3 was 21.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin new housing revenue [3]. - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 7.5%, 8.1%, and 2.8%, showing year-on-year changes of -1.1, -0.3, and +0.3 percentage points respectively [3]. - The Non-GAAP net profit margin for Q3 was 5.6%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the company continued to enhance shareholder returns with a buyback amounting to 280 million USD, the highest quarterly buyback in nearly two years [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][5]. Core Views - The company reported a 2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, primarily driven by the development of its two wings business [10][5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 28% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a decline in profitability despite revenue growth [2][5]. - The company is expected to face a significant year-on-year revenue decline in Q4 due to high base effects, but the two wings business is anticipated to stabilize overall revenue [10][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total transaction value (GTV) of 736.7 billion yuan, flat year-on-year and down 16% quarter-on-quarter. Revenue was 23.1 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year but down 11% quarter-on-quarter [10][5]. - The revenue contributions from various segments were as follows: existing home business (26%), new home business (29%), home decoration and furniture (19%), rental services (25%), and emerging businesses (2%) [10][5]. Profitability Analysis - The adjusted net profit margin was 5.6%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 21.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. - The contribution profit margin for the existing home business was 39.0%, reflecting a slight decrease, while the rental services business, which saw a revenue increase of 45%, had a low contribution profit margin of 8.7% [2][5]. Business Segment Insights - The existing home business maintained stability with a GTV of 505.6 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, while revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year [3][27]. - The new home business reported a GTV of 196.3 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, with a market share of 12% [4][47]. - The home decoration and furniture business generated 4.3 billion yuan in revenue, a 2% increase year-on-year, while the rental services business saw significant growth [4][61]. Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting adjusted net profits of 5.4 billion yuan and 7.0 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 1.53 yuan and 1.97 yuan [5][81].

Core Viewpoint - The case of trademark infringement and unfair competition involving Beike's brand "Beiwow" highlights the increasing challenges of brand protection in the home furnishing industry, with a growing number of similar disputes emerging in recent years [1][2][3] Group 1: Infringement Cases - The court ruled that Shangqiu Beiwow Mingsai Decoration Engineering Co., Ltd. must cease its infringing activities and pay economic damages of 50,000 yuan for violating Beike's trademark rights [2] - Similar infringement cases have been reported in the home furnishing industry, including a 3.8 million yuan compensation ruling against a defendant infringing on the "Jiumu" brand [3] - Other brands like Sophia, Shangpin Home, and Meike Home have also faced trademark infringement issues, indicating a rising trend in such disputes within the industry [3] Group 2: Causes of Infringement - The primary driver of frequent brand infringement is profit motivation, as counterfeit brands can quickly attract consumers and reduce market entry costs [4] - Some infringing companies directly copy the names and branding of legitimate brands, exploiting consumer trust for profit [4] - The unique business model of the home furnishing industry, which often involves extensive dealer networks, complicates brand management and increases infringement risks [4] Group 3: Consumer Awareness and Market Environment - Consumer lack of awareness regarding genuine brand identification exacerbates the issue, as many rely solely on brand names and appearances when making purchasing decisions [5] - The prevalence of counterfeit brands is particularly pronounced in smaller cities and offline markets, where consumers may unknowingly choose imitation products due to price considerations [5] - Industry leaders emphasize the need for a clean consumption environment and call for the expulsion of counterfeit sellers from retail spaces [5] Group 4: Regulatory and Industry Response - There is a call for enhanced regulatory measures to strengthen intellectual property protection, including improving trademark registration processes and increasing penalties for infringement [6] - The "Intellectual Property Protection System Construction Project Implementation Plan" aims to establish a comprehensive protection network by 2027 [6] - Companies are encouraged to proactively develop comprehensive brand protection strategies as part of their long-term development plans [6] Group 5: Collaborative Efforts - Addressing the issue of infringement requires a collective effort from consumers, industry associations, and the media to promote awareness and report violations [7] - The establishment of a secure payment system by Beike, in collaboration with CITIC Bank, aims to protect consumer funds during renovation projects [7] - Experts suggest that a collaborative approach among businesses, government, and society is essential to foster a fair competitive environment and promote high-quality economic development [7]

Core Insights - Beike's Q3 performance shows a total transaction value (GTV) of 736.74 billion yuan and net revenue of 23.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1% despite a decline in profit levels due to the overall downturn in the real estate sector [1] - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 21.4%, with GAAP net profit down 36.1% to 747 million yuan and Non-GAAP net profit down 27.8% to 1.286 billion yuan [1] - Beike's "One Body, Three Wings" model is expected to replicate its efficiency from first- and second-tier cities to other markets, indicating potential growth opportunities [1][6] Business Performance - In Q3 2023, Beike's total revenue reached 17.81 billion yuan, with the breakdown as follows: second-hand housing revenue at 6.3 billion yuan, new housing revenue at 5.9 billion yuan, home decoration revenue at 3.2 billion yuan, and rental revenue at 2.4 billion yuan [7] - Non-property transaction service revenue accounted for approximately 31.4% of total revenue in Q3 2023, projected to rise to 45% by Q3 2025, becoming a crucial support for Beike's performance curve [8] Growth Strategy - Beike plans to expand its "B+" product into lower-tier cities, aiming to enter over 30 cities by the end of 2025, leveraging market space expansion to drive business growth [11][12] - The company is focusing on aligning capabilities between first-tier and lower-tier cities in its home decoration business, with a strategy to replicate successful models from major cities [12] AI Integration - Beike is deeply integrating AI into its operations, enhancing efficiency in various stages of the transaction process, including property management and customer engagement [13][20] - AI has significantly improved operational efficiency, with property managers now overseeing an average of over 130 properties per month, up from over 90 properties the previous year [13] - The AI-driven operational model is expected to further increase the average number of properties managed per person to over 200, facilitating rapid performance growth [14] Future Outlook - Beike's management emphasizes two main directions for future growth: expanding into new markets and enhancing internal capabilities through AI [15] - The company aims to leverage AI to optimize operational strategies, improve service delivery, and enhance decision-making processes across its business segments [20][21]

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, and the real estate service sector is also noteworthy. Beike's Q3 2025 financial report shows revenue and total transaction volume growth, but a decline in net profit and gross margin, indicating cyclical challenges faced by the company [1][5][19] - Beike's traditional core business is under pressure, with new home transaction volume (GTV) down 13.7%, which was previously a significant profit driver [1][5][7] - To regain investor confidence amid performance pressures, Beike has initiated a share buyback program, spending $280 million in Q3, a 38.3% increase year-on-year, marking a two-year quarterly high [1][5][19] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Beike reported net revenue of 23.1 billion yuan, a 2.1% year-on-year increase, while net profit fell by 36.1% to 747 million yuan [5][7] - The real estate transaction business, which constitutes about 55% of Beike's revenue, is struggling, with both new and existing home transactions underperforming [5][7][8] - New home transaction GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7%, with corresponding net revenue decreasing by 14.1% to 6.6 billion yuan. Existing home transaction GTV increased by 5.8% to 505.6 billion yuan, but net revenue fell by 3.6% to 6 billion yuan [7][8] Business Transformation - Beike is accelerating its transformation towards home decoration services to reduce reliance on new home transactions, forming a collaborative development structure with four core businesses: second-hand homes, new homes, rentals, and home decoration [3][4][12] - The company is adopting a "B+" light operation model to penetrate lower-tier cities, with plans to expand to over 30 cities by year-end [10][19] - Non-real estate transaction business revenue reached a record high of 45% of total revenue, with rental services showing significant growth, up 45.3% year-on-year to 5.7 billion yuan [13][15] Challenges and Competition - The home decoration and rental markets are highly competitive and fragmented, with Beike facing challenges in maintaining profitability amid rising costs and market saturation [16][18] - The rental business's expansion has led to a 38.8% increase in costs, while the home decoration sector also faces issues related to industry fragmentation and consumer trust [16][18] - Beike's efforts to leverage AI technology for operational efficiency are ongoing, with AI applications already implemented across various business lines, but the effectiveness of these initiatives remains to be fully realized [19][21] Future Outlook - The company's ability to balance short-term cost pressures with long-term technology investments will be crucial for its recovery and growth [21][22] - Beike's share buyback program aims to stabilize market confidence, but sustainable profitability improvements are essential for long-term investor trust [19][22]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that Beike-W (02423) has significantly outperformed the market this year, with a positive outlook on the profit release from non-real estate transaction businesses. The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 59.16 billion, 76.63 billion, and 96.75 billion respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 23.89, 18.45, and 14.61 times. The "Buy" rating is maintained. Group 1: Existing Housing Business - In Q3 2025, the existing housing business GTV reached 505.6 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.82% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.35%. Revenue was 6 billion, down 3.64% year-on-year but up 18.33% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The contribution of Lianjia stores to GTV in Q3 2025 was 190 billion, accounting for 37.58% of the existing housing business GTV, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.13 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.06 percentage points [1] - The profit margin for the existing housing business in Q3 2025 was 38.96%, down 2.05 percentage points year-on-year and 8.53 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of Beike platform stores was 61,400, an increase of 27.3% year-on-year and 1.4% quarter-on-quarter; the number of agents was 546,000, up 14.5% year-on-year but down 2.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The AI product "Haoke" contributed over 50% of transaction volume, with the company leveraging AI technology to enhance potential opportunity acquisition and improve personnel efficiency through the elimination of underperforming agents [1] Group 2: New Housing Business - In Q3 2025, the new housing business GTV was 196.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%, with revenue at 6.6 billion, down 14.1% year-on-year. This performance aligns with the 14.2% decline of the top 100 developers as reported by CRIC, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year [2] - Fixed costs were reduced by 25% year-on-year, reaching a historical low [2] Group 3: Home Decoration and Furniture Business - In Q3 2025, the home decoration and furniture business generated revenue of 4.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.06%. The profit margin was maintained at 32.00%, consistent with the previous quarter [3] - The revenue growth rate has slowed due to adjustments in the second-hand and new housing markets, organizational restructuring, and a proactive strategy to control aggressive growth to mitigate risks [3] - The company has achieved profitability before headquarters expense allocation for two consecutive quarters, indicating a positive outlook for the home decoration and furniture business's contribution to profits [3] Group 4: Rental Business - In Q3 2025, the rental business revenue was 5.7 billion, up 45% year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in available rental sources [4] - The net confirmation ratio has been steadily increasing, contributing to a rise in the business's profit margin to 8.7%. The rental business has achieved breakeven for two consecutive quarters [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Beike's revenue for the third quarter increased by 2.1% year-on-year to 23.1 billion yuan, meeting market expectations; the adjusted net profit was 1.29 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, primarily due to effective cost control [1] Financial Performance - Beike's third-quarter revenue reached 23.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1% [1] - The adjusted net profit for the third quarter was 1.29 billion yuan, surpassing market expectations [1] Share Buyback - As of the end of the third quarter, the company's cumulative share repurchase amounted to approximately 675 million USD [1] Market Outlook - CICC maintains a positive outlook on Beike's one-stop residential service platform's competitiveness and development prospects, sustaining an "outperform industry" rating and a target price of 25 USD [1] - The company is expected to benefit from cost reduction and efficiency improvement, along with medium to long-term profit elasticity from its main and new businesses [1]