炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 智通财经8月5日讯（记者 高艳云）近期，沪指在3600点关口附近持续震荡，市场情绪有所波动。包括 招商证券、中信证券、中信建投、银河证券等在内的多家头部券商陆续发布研报，表达对市场中长期向 好的坚定信心。 中信证券官方微信公众号直言"坐稳扶好"，同时发文指出"牛市，也会换挡""3600点以上，波动加大"。 撰文用语还颇为"鸡汤"，道理与逻辑十足，比如"记住，对于大部分普通人来说，要掌握的不是牛市赚 钱的技能，而是终其一生、穿越各种周期性波动的、财富稳健增长的能力。"值得注意的是，该文又是 一篇"10万+"，且转发过万。 中信建投资深策略分析师夏凡捷直言，全球货币宽松和A股资金面充裕的环境不变，投资者的牛市预期 不变，新赛道的结构性景气不变。阶段性震荡整固，有利于A股慢牛行情行稳致远。 银河证券首席策略分析师杨超称，市场交投活跃度整体仍处于较高水平，预计市场维持在震荡偏高中枢 运行，关注结构性机会。中长期来看，市场向好趋势不改。 华泰证券分析师何康认为，目前赚钱效应已回调至7月中旬位置，市场抛压相对可控，短期A股或进入 波动率放大的平台期 ...

主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：光大期货、持仓3676、增仓205，华泰期货、持仓3924、增仓147，物产中大、持 仓2706、增仓134；空头减仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓6602、减仓-893，中信期货、持仓14917、减仓-548，东证期货、持 仓6859、减仓-406。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年8月5日铜主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | | 会员 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 国泰君安 | 11,869 | 1,658 | 中信期货 | 15,611 | -1,100 | 中信期货 | 14,917 | -548 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 9,534 | -5,341 | 国泰君安 | 14,039 | -664 | 王矿期货 | 13,627 | -169 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 8,564 | -6,887 | 毛瑞朗总 | 9,524 | 526 | 金 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market shows a significant increase in trading volume and changes in positions, indicating a shift in market sentiment with a net short position among the top 20 participants [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of August 5, 2025, the main urea futures contract (2509) closed with a price increase of 2.67%, with a trading volume of 208,500 contracts and a total open interest showing a net short position of 10,090 contracts [1]. - The total trading volume for all urea contracts reached 292,600 contracts, an increase of 8,710 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. Group 2: Position Changes - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 198,000 contracts, an increase of 2,629 contracts, while short positions totaled 219,900 contracts, an increase of 4,745 contracts [1]. - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan (16,591 contracts), Dongzheng Futures (14,451 contracts), and Yong'an Futures (13,481 contracts) [1][4]. - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan (29,651 contracts), Dongzheng Futures (19,068 contracts), and CITIC Futures (16,660 contracts) [1][4]. Group 3: Individual Member Changes - The top three members increasing their long positions were Guotai Junan (9,470 contracts, +1,881), Huatai Futures (2,448 contracts, +481), and Qisheng Futures (2,545 contracts, +469) [1][3]. - The top three members decreasing their long positions were Zhongyuan Futures (2,782 contracts, -1,469), Rongda Futures (3,760 contracts, -1,010), and Huishang Futures (2,218 contracts, -863) [1][3]. - The top three members increasing their short positions were Yong'an Futures (3,445 contracts, +1,414), CITIC Jiantou (3,702 contracts, +706), and Xinhu Futures (1,979 contracts, +463) [1][3]. - The top three members decreasing their short positions were CITIC Futures (11,758 contracts, -2,719), Guotai Junan (16,344 contracts, -1,480), and Dongzheng Futures (11,086 contracts, -1,002) [1][3].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The trading data for the CSI 1000 index futures as of August 5 shows a slight increase in the main contract price, with a closing value of 2509, reflecting a change of +0.90%. The overall trading volume decreased compared to the previous day, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards net short positions among the top 20 holders [1]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Positions - The total trading volume for all contracts was 155,300 lots, a decrease of 33,900 lots from the previous day [1]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 225,700 lots, down by 6,788 lots, while short positions totaled 267,600 lots, down by 5,758 lots [1][4]. - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan (41,829 lots), CITIC Futures (38,397 lots), and Haitong Futures (14,261 lots) [1][4]. Group 2: Changes in Long and Short Positions - The top three increases in long positions were from Shenyin Wanguo (3,799 lots, +165), Ruida Futures (2,157 lots, +133), and Guoxin Futures (2,724 lots, +63) [1]. - The top three decreases in long positions were from CITIC Futures (20,067 lots, -2,004), Zhongtai Futures (4,564 lots, -959), and Haitong Futures (8,318 lots, -800) [1]. - The top three increases in short positions were from Dongzheng Futures (6,795 lots, +187), Galaxy Futures (4,937 lots, +165), and Guoxin Futures (4,913 lots, +142) [1]. - The top three decreases in short positions were from CITIC Futures (36,047 lots, -1,144), Zhongtai Futures (3,267 lots, -1,037), and Everbright Futures (1,970 lots, -715) [1].

Core Insights - The main contract for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) closed at 2509 on August 5, with a decrease of 1.94% and a trading volume of 94,300 contracts, indicating a net short position among the top 20 positions with a difference of 7,148 contracts [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all LPG contracts reached 146,400 contracts, an increase of 4,721 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - The top 20 positions for long holdings amounted to 149,100 contracts, increasing by 1,240 contracts, while short holdings reached 161,700 contracts, increasing by 1,440 contracts [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by: - CITIC Futures with a total holding of 23,248 contracts - Guotai Junan with 21,420 contracts - Guotou Futures with 11,817 contracts [1][4]. - The top three short positions were held by: - CITIC Futures with 29,072 contracts - Guotai Junan with 26,757 contracts - Dongzheng Futures with 13,659 contracts [1][4]. Changes in Positions - Among the top 20 positions, the largest increases in long positions were from: - CITIC Jiantou with an increase of 870 contracts - Huishang Futures with an increase of 526 contracts - Zhejiang New Century with an increase of 520 contracts [1][3]. - The largest decreases in long positions were from: - Dongzheng Futures with a decrease of 1,023 contracts - Guotai Junan with a decrease of 361 contracts - Galaxy Futures with a decrease of 230 contracts [1][3]. Short Position Changes - The largest increases in short positions were from: - Huatai Futures with an increase of 1,527 contracts - Shanghai Dongya with an increase of 850 contracts - Haitong Futures with an increase of 470 contracts [1][3]. - The largest decreases in short positions were from: - Shenyin Wanguo with a decrease of 262 contracts - Zheshang Futures with a decrease of 254 contracts [1][3].

Core Insights - The main contract for soda ash (contract 2509) closed at a price increase of 2.01% as of August 5, with a trading volume of 993,600 lots and a net short position among the top 20 positions of 109,594 lots [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all soda ash contracts reached 2,509,000 lots, with an increase of 58,500 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 1,098,100 lots, a decrease of 61,200 lots from the previous day, while short positions totaled 1,400,800 lots, a decrease of 45,600 lots [1]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan (total position 105,247), CITIC Futures (total position 83,012), and Dongzheng Futures (total position 69,631) [1]. - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan (total position 191,270), CITIC Futures (total position 178,585), and Yong'an Futures (total position 178,125) [1]. Changes in Positions - The top two long position increases were from Zheshang Futures (holding 10,995, increase of 2,285) and Yong'an Futures (holding 19,138, increase of 1,700) [1]. - The top three long position decreases were from Dongzheng Futures (holding 26,779, decrease of 11,134), Guotai Junan (holding 51,087, decrease of 9,304), and Guangfa Futures (holding 17,311, decrease of 8,281) [1]. - The top three short position increases were from Dongzheng Futures (holding 51,092, increase of 1,111), Guotou Futures (holding 10,925, increase of 991), and CITIC Jiantou (holding 11,792, increase of 717) [1]. - The top three short position decreases were from Guotai Junan (holding 97,325, decrease of 22,495), Yong'an Futures (holding 73,093, decrease of 10,406), and Guangfa Futures (holding 10,463, decrease of 6,574) [1].

Core Insights - The main contract for the 30-year Treasury futures closed at 2509 on August 5, with a slight increase of 0.06% and a trading volume of 100,100 contracts, indicating a net long position among the top 20 holders with a difference of 3,543 contracts [1][3]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all contracts was 120,200, which is a decrease of 3,460 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - The top 20 holders had a total long position of 125,900 contracts, down by 3,184 contracts, while the total short position was 125,700 contracts, a decrease of 1,942 contracts [1][4]. Group 2: Major Players - The top three long positions were held by CITIC Futures (27,833 contracts), Guotai Junan (17,150 contracts), and Ping An Futures (9,487 contracts) [1][4]. - The top three short positions were also held by CITIC Futures (16,180 contracts), Guotai Junan (15,641 contracts), and Galaxy Futures (10,917 contracts) [1][4]. Group 3: Changes in Positions - Among the top 20 holders, the largest increase in long positions was seen in Zhongtai Futures (2,126 contracts, up by 467), CITIC Futures (16,480 contracts, up by 347), and GF Futures (4,094 contracts, up by 96) [1][3]. - The largest decrease in long positions was recorded by Guotai Junan (10,876 contracts, down by 2,125), Guojin Futures (2,552 contracts, down by 638), and Hongyuan Futures (6,986 contracts, down by 367) [1][3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trading performance of coking coal futures, with the main contract 2601 experiencing a price increase of 6.92% as of August 5, with a trading volume of 2.4948 million lots [1][2] - The total trading volume for all coking coal futures contracts reached 3.2342 million lots, an increase of 654,500 lots compared to the previous day [1][3] - The top 20 positions in the futures market show a net short position, with a difference of 84,472 lots, indicating a bearish sentiment among major traders [1][4] Group 2 - The top three long positions are held by CITIC Futures with a total holding of 44,649 lots, Guotai Junan with 42,091 lots, and Founder Futures with 32,517 lots [1][3] - The top three short positions are also led by CITIC Futures with 66,737 lots, Guotai Junan with 62,843 lots, and Yide Futures with 35,016 lots [1][3] - The changes in positions show that the top three long position increases were from Founder Futures (+7,880 lots), Yide Futures (+3,765 lots), and Guotai Junan (+3,180 lots) [1][3]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至8月05日收盘主力合约焦炭2509,涨跌+3.16%,成交量3.26万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净空， 差额头寸为2215手。 焦炭期货全合约总计成交5.31万手，比上一日新增7698手。全合约前20席位多头持仓3.07万手，比上一日增加1676手。全合约前20 席位空头持仓3.79万手，比上一日增加1538手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓5477、国泰君安，总持仓4099、银河期货，总持仓2418；空头前三席位为 中信期货，总持仓5220、物产中大，总持仓4252、方正中期，总持仓2915； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：广发期货、持仓673、增仓122，中信期货、持仓2039、增仓104，国泰君安、持仓 2062、增仓103；多头减仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓1352、减仓-167，银河期货、持仓1639、减仓-113，东证期货、持仓 949、减仓-96； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：方正中期、持仓1826、增仓413，广发期货、持仓454、增仓153，中信期货、持仓 2638、增仓147；空头减仓前三名分别是：物产中 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance of Brands - Adidas reported lower-than-expected revenue but exceeded profit expectations, while VF and Puma had mixed results with VF outperforming on both revenue and profit, and Puma underperforming [1] - Adidas maintains its full-year revenue growth guidance and operating profit target of €1.7-1.8 billion, while VF expects a 2%-4% decline in revenue for FY26Q2 at constant exchange rates [1] - Puma anticipates a double-digit decline in revenue for FY25, with U.S. tariffs expected to negatively impact gross profit by approximately €80 million [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The recent U.S. tariffs are expected to significantly affect the profits of overseas sports brands throughout the fiscal year [1] - Adidas indicated that tariffs resulted in a negative impact of several million euros in FY25Q2, with an anticipated cost increase of €200 million in H2 due to current tariff conditions [1] - Kering plans to adjust prices to mitigate the impact of the 15% U.S.-Europe tariff, having already implemented price increases in Q2 and planning further adjustments for autumn products [2] Group 3: Opportunities for Manufacturers - The new U.S. tariffs, effective July 31, are expected to benefit cotton spinning leaders, as Southeast Asian countries face varying tariff rates, leading to increased procurement needs from overseas garment and footwear factories [3] - Manufacturers with established overseas production capabilities, such as Tianhong International Group and Baolong Oriental, are likely to gain from the shift in procurement patterns [3] - The trend of overseas brands considering sharing tariff costs with suppliers may further highlight the advantages of midstream yarn and fabric manufacturers with overseas production [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in high-growth segments such as Anta Sports and Xtep International, as well as companies like Hailan Home that are expected to improve in mid-year reports [4] - Manufacturers with positive mid-year forecasts, such as Baolong Oriental and Tianhong International Group, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] - The report also suggests investing in undervalued Hong Kong stocks like Jiangnan Buyi and Tobo, and brands expected to benefit from the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" act, such as Samsonite and Prada [4]