Group 1 - The article highlights a significant decline in the prices of non-ferrous stocks, with Jiangxi Copper Co. falling by 6.57% to HKD 33.56, Luoyang Molybdenum Co. down 6.27% to HKD 17.93, China Aluminum Corporation decreasing by 4.73% to HKD 10.88, and Zijin Mining Group dropping 4.54% to HKD 32.4 [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Japan may adjust its interest rate hike pace, while the European Central Bank's executive Schnabel's hawkish remarks have led to increased market speculation about rate hikes next year [1] - Analysts suggest that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's expected rate cut this week, but investors believe that the policy statement and Chairman Powell's comments may indicate a higher threshold for further rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities previously noted that the current rate cut cycle may signal the arrival of a super cycle for industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum [1] - The firm is optimistic about the demand for copper driven by U.S. electricity investments by 2026, as well as the demand for aluminum spurred by energy storage and alternative needs [1] - The anticipated significant rise in industrial metal prices is expected to influence inflation expectations, leading to a recommendation to focus on the copper and aluminum sectors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in the Hong Kong stock market for non-ferrous metal stocks, with significant drops in share prices for several companies [1] Group 2 - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358.HK) experienced a decrease of 6.35% [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (03993.HK) saw a decline of 4.75% [1] - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (02899.HK) dropped by 4.54% [1] - Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited (01818.HK) fell by 4.49% [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks collectively declined at the beginning of trading, with notable drops including China Silver Group down 4.29%, Zhaojin Mining down 4.14%, and Zijin Mining down 3.89% [1][2] - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) reported that the simultaneous surge in gold and stock prices this year is unprecedented in at least half a century, indicating potential bubble risks in both asset classes [2] - Retail investors have driven the recent surge in gold prices, shifting gold from a traditional safe-haven asset to a more speculative one, with evidence suggesting that retail participation has amplified this trend [2] Group 2 - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced that Russia will restrict gold exports starting in 2026, which may impact global gold supply dynamics [2]

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (72.88%), Power Assets Holdings (69.70%), and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (69.23%) [1][2] - The largest increases in holdings over the last five trading days were seen in the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (+2.874 billion), Xiaomi Group-W (+1.552 billion), and Meituan-W (+925 million) [1][2] - The largest decreases in holdings were recorded for Tencent Holdings (-2.444 billion), SMIC (-1.011 billion), and Zijin Mining (-646 million) [1][3] Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding of 10.115 billion shares, representing 72.88% [2] - Power Assets Holdings (01635) has a holding of 372 million shares, representing 69.70% [2] - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (01330) has a holding of 280 million shares, representing 69.23% [2] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) saw an increase of +2.874 billion in holdings, with a change of +11.06275 million shares [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) experienced an increase of +1.552 billion in holdings, with a change of +3.64502 million shares [2] - Meituan-W (03690) had an increase of +925 million in holdings, with a change of +930.15 thousand shares [2] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a decrease of -2.444 billion in holdings, with a change of -404.04 thousand shares [3] - SMIC (00981) saw a decrease of -1.011 billion in holdings, with a change of -1.40754 million shares [3] - Zijin Mining (02899) experienced a decrease of -646 million in holdings, with a change of -1.90246 million shares [3]

分析认为，沪铜期货价格连续创历史新高，主要源于供应端收缩+宏观面宽松+需求端结构性增长。 智通财经获悉，2025年末，铜市迎来狂飙行情。过去一周内，伦敦金属交易所(LME)与上海期货交易所 的铜期货价格连续三次刷新历史纪录，国内沪铜主力合约价格更是强势突破9.3万元/吨大关，单周涨幅 高达6.12%，领涨全球市场。 国际方面，全球铜矿供应的"长期缺口"已从预期转为现实，智利Codelco2025年产量预计同比下降3%， 老旧矿山品位下滑、投资不足导致产能增长停滞；印尼出台精矿出口限制政策，非洲铜矿项目因政局动 荡开发滞后，全球铜矿新增产能增速不足2%，远低于需求增速。而Codelco对欧美买家的长单升水飙 升，进一步凸显全球铜矿"卖方市场"格局。 此外，美联储12月降息预期升温，且特朗普阵营的哈塞特大概率当选新一任美联储主席，这也将提升特 朗普政府对白宫的控制力，增强市场对2026年美联储流动性宽松的预期，也有利于铜价的上涨。 国内方面，中国有色金属工业协会明确表示，已叫停约200万吨铜冶炼违规产能，CSPT成员企业达 成"2026年减产10%"共识。更关键的是，铜精矿加工费已跌至低于冶炼成本线，导致国内冶炼 ...

国际方面，全球铜矿供应的"长期缺口"已从预期转为现实，智利Codelco2025年产量预计同比下降3%， 老旧矿山品位下滑、投资不足导致产能增长停滞；印尼出台精矿出口限制政策，非洲铜矿项目因政局动 荡开发滞后，全球铜矿新增产能增速不足2%，远低于需求增速。而Codelco对欧美买家的长单升水飙 升，进一步凸显全球铜矿"卖方市场"格局。 此外，美联储12月降息预期升温，且特朗普阵营的哈塞特大概率当选新一任美联储主席，这也将提升特 朗普政府对白宫的控制力，增强市场对2026年美联储流动性宽松的预期，也有利于铜价的上涨。 国内方面，中国有色金属工业协会明确表示，已叫停约200万吨铜冶炼违规产能，CSPT成员企业达 成"2026年减产10%"共识。更关键的是，铜精矿加工费已跌至低于冶炼成本线，导致国内冶炼企业扩产 意愿低迷，矿端紧缺正加速向精铜端传导。 LME数据显示，其注册仓单大幅转为注销仓单，库存降至数月低位，而COMEX库存则持续累积，这种 区域性的库存分化(LME紧张、COMEX宽松)背后，是跨市场套利交易的活跃，进一步印证了全球范围 内可供自由流动的现货铜并不宽裕。期货行业资深人士称，下游企业担心本地无货可 ...

花旗银行预计，铜价将持续攀升至明年初，第二季度均价约为13000美元/吨，并将乐观情境下的目标价 从14000美元/吨上调至15000美元/吨。 银河证券表示，全球铜矿供应短缺与全球区域性精铜供应失衡风险加剧的逻辑演绎，叠加流动性的宽松 预期，有望持续推动铜价上涨，建议关注国内铜矿龙头公司。今年以来主力铜矿扰动频发，导致2025年 全球铜矿产量预期持续下调，由年初预期的70多万的增量下降至目前的全年几乎没有增量；而2026年的 全球铜矿增量也仅有50多万吨。在国内外均有大量在建/拟建冶炼产能待释放的情况下，预计2026年全 球铜矿缺口或将进一步扩大。 中信建投（601066）建议，三大金属投资应聚焦两大逻辑：资源掌控力：优先布局紫金矿业（601899） (铜金双龙头)、洛阳钼业（603993）(全球钴铜巨头)等拥有核心矿权的企业；技术溢价：重点关注南山 铝业（600219）(航空级铝材)、恒邦股份（002237）(贵金属回收)等具备深加工能力的标的。 相关概念股： 2025年末，铜市迎来狂飙行情。过去一周内，伦敦金属交易所(LME)与上海期货交易所的铜期货价格连 续三次刷新历史纪录，国内沪铜主力合约价格更是强 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [7] Core Insights - The lithium industry is experiencing strong near-term demand, with significant price increases for lithium carbonate driven by supply disruptions and robust battery demand. However, there are considerable divergences in long-term demand forecasts, particularly for 2026 and 2027 [1][3][30] - The report anticipates a supply increase of 32.3% in 2026 and 17.1% in 2027, primarily from new projects in domestic salt lakes and increased production from African and Australian mines [2][10] - The demand forecast for 2026 estimates a total lithium carbonate demand of approximately 207.2 million tons LCE, with a year-on-year growth of 25.2% [25][30] - The supply-demand balance is expected to show a slight surplus in 2026 but may shift to a shortage in 2027 due to declining supply growth and sustained high demand [4][30] Supply Summary - The global lithium resource supply is projected to be 163.4 million tons in 2025, 216.2 million tons in 2026, and 253.2 million tons in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.3%, 32.3%, and 17.1% respectively [2][12][31] - Supply disruptions, particularly from the Jiangxi mine, have impacted the 2025 supply growth, which is expected to decline to 22.3% from 28.6% in 2024 [10][11] Demand Summary - The report highlights a significant divergence in demand growth expectations for 2026, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a 75% increase in energy storage installations and a 60% penetration rate for new energy vehicles [3][26] - The total demand range for lithium carbonate in 2026 is estimated between 197.5 million tons and 216.8 million tons LCE, reflecting a nearly 20 million tons variance based on different growth assumptions [26][30] Balance Summary - The supply-demand balance for 2025 is projected to show a shortage of approximately 2.0 million tons, while 2026 is expected to have a surplus of 9.1 million tons [4][30] - The report indicates that the lithium market may face a persistent shortage starting in 2027 due to reduced supply growth and high demand [4][30] Price Summary - The report estimates that the fundamental price for lithium carbonate in 2026 will be in the range of 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton, with potential upward pressure on prices in the second half of 2026 due to anticipated shortages [5][34] - If a sustained shortage occurs, prices could rise to 120,000 yuan per ton [5][34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to remain stable at high levels, with a downward trend continuing as the market awaits the December FOMC results. Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are ongoing, and China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves [4][9] - Copper prices are on an upward trajectory, driven by supply constraints in non-US regions. The LME copper price reached a new high of $11,665 per ton, with significant warehouse cancellations raising concerns about potential supply shortages [10][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Views - Gold: The Federal Reserve's silence and mixed economic data have led to fluctuations in gold prices. The probability of a rate cut in December remains high at 80-90% [9] - Copper: The LME copper price has surged, with significant warehouse cancellations indicating potential supply issues. The market is expected to maintain a bullish sentiment towards copper stocks [10] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 5.07%, outperforming the broader market by 4.70%. The top-performing sectors included copper, aluminum, and nickel [11][12] Metal Prices and Inventories - Prices for basic metals have generally risen, with SHFE copper up 4.99% to 91,560 yuan per ton, and LME copper up 2.33% to $11,450 per ton. Inventory levels show a mixed trend, with LME copper inventory increasing by 2.0% while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 9.2% [25][31]

公告 1 臨時股東會預期時間表如下： （附註） 遞交 H 股股份過戶文件之最後時限 2025 年 12 月 22 日（星期一）下午 4 時 30 分 暫停辦理股份過戶登記手續（包括首尾兩天） 2025 年 12 月 23 日（星期二）至 2025 年 12 月 31 日（星期三） 記錄日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日（星期三） 臨時股東會 2025 年 12 月 31 日（星期三） 公佈臨時股東會結果 2025 年 12 月 31 日（星期三） 再次辦理 H 股股份過戶登記手續 2026 年 1 月 2 日（星期五） 附註：所有時間均指香港本地時間 召開臨時股東會的正式通知及相關議案，本公司將根據上市規則適時公告。 有關擬召開 2025 年第二次臨時股東會的暫停辦理 H 股股份過戶登記手續時間 茲提述紫金礦業集團股份有限公司（以下簡稱「本公司」）日期為 2025 年 11 月 28 日關於 公司董事會換屆相關事宜的公告以及關於修訂《公司章程》的公告（「該等公告」）。除另 有定義外，本公告內所用辭彚與該等公告所載者具有相同涵義。 本公司擬於 2025 年 12 月 31 日（星期三）舉行 2025 年第二 ...