Market Performance - The micro-cap stock index reached a historical high last week, while large-cap indices like the CSI 300 and SSE 50 experienced adjustments [1] - This morning, large-cap stocks strengthened, with the SSE 50 index rising over 1.8% at its peak, while the micro-cap index and the CSI 2000 index both declined, with the latter down 1.39% [1] - By the close of the morning session, the SSE index rose by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.74% and 0.86%, respectively, with total market turnover exceeding 2.26 trillion yuan [3] Sector Highlights - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong performance, particularly in precious metals, with companies like Hunan Gold and Zhaojin Gold hitting the daily limit, and leading stocks such as Zijin Mining and China Uranium rising significantly [5] - Spot gold prices surged past $5,000 per ounce, with silver prices also reaching historical highs, driven by geopolitical factors and fluctuations in confidence towards U.S. assets [8] - Major precious metal companies forecast significant profit increases for 2025, with Zijin Mining expecting a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [8] Investment Catalysts - Three main catalysts are identified for the non-ferrous metals sector: 1. Recovery in manufacturing and inventory replenishment cycles, with PMI indicators returning to expansion in the U.S. and some emerging economies [9] 2. Long-term demand reshaping due to green and technological trends, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [9] 3. Liquidity expectations and financial attributes, with rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve benefiting precious metals [9] Financial Sector Activity - The financial sector was active, with the insurance sector leading gains, as major insurers collectively rose, including New China Life Insurance which increased over 4% [10][12] - The insurance industry is expected to see performance improvements in 2026, driven by a stable long-term interest rate environment and rising equity markets [13]

受益于金价上涨，多家黄金相关企业预计2025年业绩同比增长。 目前，高盛最新报告已经将今年底黄金价格预测由每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元，因私人投资者及央 行的需求不断增强。高盛预计，今年各国央行每月将购买60吨黄金，同时随着美联储降息，ETF所购买 的黄金规模也会增加，进一步推升估值。华西证券最新研报预测，2026年金价涨幅或介于10%—35%， 而杰富瑞集团更是喊出6600美元/盎司的惊人目标。 世界黄金协会美洲CEO兼全球研究负责人安凯表示，展望2026年，黄金市场将进入多重力量交织、动态 平衡的新阶段。一方面，地缘经济不确定性依然高企，美元或将延续弱势，投资者和央行的结构性需求 有望持续为金价提供支撑。另一方面，全球经济复苏的可能性、利率周期的变化以及美元阶段性反弹等 因素，也可能对黄金价格形成一定压力。 1月25日晚，湖南黄金发布业绩预告，预计2025年净利润为12.7亿元—16.08亿元，同比增长50%— 90%。 此前，赤峰黄金曾于1月5日发布2025年度业绩预增公告，预计2025年度净利润为30亿元到32亿元，与上 年同期（法定披露数据）相比增长约70%到81%。主要原因为公司2025年 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock index showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.09% to 26,773.97 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.31% to 5,721.82 points [1] - Major tech stocks experienced varied movements, with Alibaba down by 1.25%, Tencent up by 0.92%, and JD.com up by 1.39% [1] - Gold stocks led the rise in the metals sector, with companies like Lingbao Gold and Shandong Gold reaching new highs, while China Nonferrous Mining surged over 11% [1] - Oil stocks strengthened, with CNOOC rising by over 4% [1] - Commercial aerospace stocks generally declined, with Asia Pacific Satellite down over 8% [1] Corporate News - Road King Infrastructure (01098.HK) plans to sell several property rights in the Road King New World commercial project in Ningbo for 100.3 million yuan [2] - Asia Cement (00743.HK) expects a net profit of approximately 85.6 million yuan for 2025 [3] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) announced the completion of the second phase of the Julong Copper Mine, which will become the largest copper mine in China [4] - Minmetals Capital (01141.HK) anticipates a net profit of 130 million to 170 million HKD for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 155.9% to 234.6% [4] - Everbright Securities (06178.HK) projects a revenue of 10.863 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year growth of 13.18%, with a net profit of 3.729 billion yuan, up 21.92% [4] - China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) reported a revenue of 337.532 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight increase of 0.01%, and a net profit of 150.181 billion yuan, up by 1.21% [4] - Shanghai Fudan (01385.HK) expects a revenue of approximately 3.93 billion to 4.03 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit decrease of about 66.82% to 50.58% [4] - China Life Insurance (02628.HK) plans to invest 4 billion yuan to establish a partnership focused on AI-driven technological innovation and industrial upgrades in the Yangtze River Delta [5] - Xinda International Holdings (00111.HK) issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit of approximately 74 million to 82 million HKD [6] - Huadian International Power (01071.HK) reported a cumulative power generation of 262 million MWh for 2025, a decrease of about 6.99% year-on-year [7] - CNOOC Services (02883.HK) released a strategic guideline for 2026, expecting capital expenditure of approximately 8.44 billion yuan [8] - Sinopec (00386.HK) forecasts an oil production of 39.7 million tons for 2025, a slight increase of 0.2%, and a natural gas production of 41.253 billion cubic meters, up 4.02% [8] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities noted that the short-term interest rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve have decreased, leading to a forecast of narrow fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market [9] - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, benefiting from price increases in the supply chain, domestic substitution, and accelerated AI applications [9] - Consumption sectors are expected to continue benefiting from policy support, with attention needed on policy implementation and improvements in consumption data [9] - Dongxing Securities highlighted that the number of satellite launches in China is expected to accelerate by 2026, creating market opportunities in satellite manufacturing and rocket launches [10] - Guangfa Securities indicated that space photovoltaics are likely to benefit from the global commercial aerospace boom, with existing low-orbit satellite plans potentially creating nearly 10 GW of demand for space photovoltaics [10]

Group 1 - Copper stocks experienced a collective surge in the afternoon trading session, indicating strong market interest [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) saw a significant increase of 12.02%, reaching HKD 16.68 [1] - Wanguo Resources (01208.HK) rose by 11.02%, trading at HKD 5.05 [1] Group 2 - China Gold International (02099.HK) increased by 7.25%, with shares priced at HKD 233.6 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) experienced a rise of 5.05%, reaching HKD 42.46 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) saw a growth of 4.07%, with shares at HKD 47.06 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks experienced a collective surge, with significant gains observed across various companies in the sector, indicating a positive market sentiment despite underlying macroeconomic concerns [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) rose by 12.02%, reaching HKD 16.68 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) increased by 11.02%, trading at HKD 5.05 [1] - China Gold International (02099) saw a rise of 7.25%, priced at HKD 233.6 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) gained 5.05%, with shares at HKD 42.46 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) climbed by 4.07%, now at HKD 47.06 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Macro expectations have cooled, but geopolitical concerns persist, with the U.S. government continuing to pressure the Federal Reserve [1] - Market pricing for interest rate cuts remains conservative, and inflation data has not exceeded expectations, while unemployment rates have decreased [1] - The resilience of the U.S. economy is still evident, despite weak short-term supply and demand characteristics [1] Group 3: Copper Price Dynamics - Global copper inventory has increased to 1 million tons, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [1] - After adjusting around the 100,000 mark, copper prices rebounded, primarily influenced by geopolitical factors and gold price trends [1] - Guangzhou Futures suggests that while the logic driving copper price increases is weakening, the fragile supply of copper mines and rigid demand from emerging sectors support a solid price floor, indicating limited adjustment space [1]

广州期货认为，当下驱动铜价上涨逻辑有所松动，但铜矿供应脆弱+新兴领域带来的刚性需求，以及战 略资源属性愈发强化，铜价底部依旧坚实，调整空间相对有限，倾向于震荡蓄势后延续涨势。 铜业股午前集体走强，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨12.02%，报16.68港元；五矿资源(01208)涨 11.02%，报5.05港元；中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)涨7.25%，报233.6港元；紫金矿业（601899） (02899)涨5.05%，报42.46港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨4.07%，报47.06港元。 消息面上，正信期货表示，宏观预期情绪有所降温，但地缘担忧仍存，尽管美国政府持续施压美联储， 但市场对于降息定价较为保守，同时通胀数据暂未超预期，失业率回落，美国自身经济韧性仍存。产业 端来看，虽然远期的供需预期暂难证伪，但近段弱现实特征延续，全球库存进一步增加至100万吨。铜 价在10万关口调整后再度反弹，主要还是受地缘以及金价指引，价格高位震荡为主。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by multiple factors that are reshaping the pricing logic of non-ferrous metals [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF, Huabao (159876), surged by 5.02%, reaching a new high since its listing, with a trading volume of 1.42 billion yuan within the first hour of trading [1]. - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 1.09 million units, accumulating a total of 569 million yuan over the past 10 days [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Steel Titanium Co., Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Silver Nonferrous Metals, have all reached their daily limit up, with significant increases in trading volumes [4]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The rising U.S. debt and deficit are causing global concerns about sustainability and the credibility of the dollar, leading central banks to diversify their reserves by reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves, which supports higher precious metal prices [3]. - The development of the AI industry and the acceleration of global energy transition are driving increased demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3]. - The global supply chain is shifting focus from efficiency to security, prompting countries to increase reserves of critical minerals and energy, thereby boosting demand for bulk commodities [3]. - A long-term contraction in capital expenditure for major non-ferrous metals since 2011 has created a significant output gap, which continues to constrain supply and support prices [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The current high profitability in the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to persist for an extended period, with new demand driving growth and leading to a potential revaluation of the sector [3]. - Domestic non-ferrous metal companies are valued lower compared to their overseas counterparts, despite having similar growth potential and core competitiveness [3]. - Continuous exploration and breakthroughs in core technologies such as exploration, mining, and metallurgy by domestic companies contribute significantly to global mining development [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks for multiple commodities including methanol, silver, etc., and offers corresponding investment suggestions such as short - term trading strategies and waiting for market stabilization [1][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Market data: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2263 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol is 89.92%, down 1.18% week - on - week; the total downstream capacity utilization rate is 71.26%, down 1.3% weekly; the methanol port sample inventory is 145.75 tons, up 2.22 tons weekly [1]. - Outlook: With high domestic methanol production and falling downstream demand, the port inventory has slightly increased. The inland market is weak, and the port basis has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Silver - Market factors: A storm in the US has affected market risk preferences, and gold has risen due to safe - haven demand [1]. - Outlook: Silver is still bullish in the long term, but the short - term upward momentum may be limited. Attention should be paid to the interaction between gold and silver [1]. Pig - Market data: As of January 23, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123 kg, up 0.01 kg; the weekly slaughter rate is 34.13%, up 0.66%; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding is 37.85 yuan/head, up 79.68 yuan/head; the self - breeding profit is 115.96 yuan/head, up 52.46 yuan/head; the piglet price is 343.33 yuan/head, up 34.28 yuan/head [3]. - Outlook: The pig price rose first and then fell over the weekend. The supply of standard - weight pigs is relatively abundant, and the slaughter enterprises are cautious in procurement. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization [3]. Palm Oil - Market factors: Italy has passed a new biofuel regulation, and the SGS data shows a 2.70% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 [3]. - Outlook: Although the current demand is weak, the strong foundation for palm oil futures prices remains. It is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, and short - term long positions are recommended [3]. Soybean Meal - Market data: On January 23, the domestic soybean meal spot prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were 3180 yuan/ton (stable), 3080 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), 3070 yuan/ton (stable), and 3060 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) respectively [4]. - Outlook: The spot price has a slight upward trend due to pre - holiday stocking, but the high oil mill operating rate and future Brazilian soybean supply pressure limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see as it lacks direction in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - Market data: The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises is 72.55%, down 0.14%; the daily coke output is 63.45 tons, down 0.12 tons; the coke inventory is 81.81 tons, down 4.26 tons; the coking coal inventory is 1132.85 tons, up 61.17 tons; the available days of coking coal are 13.4 days, up 0.75 days [4]. - Outlook: The downstream winter storage is ongoing, and the coal mine output is expected to decline. The fundamental situation will improve marginally, but the upward momentum of the futures market is limited. It is expected to fluctuate [4]. Iron Ore - Market data: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 16766.53 tons, up 211.43 tons; the daily port clearance volume is 310.73 tons, down 9.16 tons; the number of ships at ports is 118, up 1 [5]. - Outlook: Although the inventory pressure is increasing, considering supply and demand factors, the further inventory accumulation pressure is limited. The price is supported in the short term and is expected to fluctuate [5]. Rebar - Market data: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.68%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 85.51%, up 0.03 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate is 40.69%, up 0.86 percentage points; the daily hot metal output is 228.1 tons, up 0.09 tons [5]. - Outlook: The building material demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory accumulation speed is expected to accelerate as steel mills resume production. However, the cost side provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. Soda Ash - Market data: The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly output is 77.17 tons, down 0.46%; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 152.12 tons, down 3.42%; the float glass operating rate is 71.62%, up 0.14 percentage points [6]. - Outlook: The float glass market is stable, and the domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. With high supply and mediocre demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. PVC - Market data: The price of East China SG - 5 PVC is 4650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.74%, down 0.89%; the social inventory is 117.75 tons, up 2.92%; the average profit of calcium carbide - based PVC producers is - 733 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based producers is - 164 yuan/ton [7]. - Outlook: With high supply, low domestic demand, and rapid inventory accumulation, the price is under pressure. However, strong exports support the price. It is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short term [7]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of January 23, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 411, up 1 from the previous week and down 61 from the same period last year [8]. - Outlook: The US has increased pressure on Iran, and geopolitical risks have pushed up international oil prices. Short - term long positions are recommended, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the US winter storm [8]. Synthetic Rubber - Market data: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene enterprises is 11.06 tons, up 0.01 tons; the butadiene inventory has significantly decreased, down 14.84%; the profit of butadiene extraction process is 2693 yuan/ton, up 317 yuan/ton [9]. - Outlook: The increase is mainly driven by butadiene. With sufficient supply of synthetic rubber and high downstream shipment pressure, it is recommended to be cautious when going long and use short - term long positions at low levels [9]. Asphalt - Market data: As of January 21, the domestic asphalt sample enterprise operating rate is 26.8%, down 0.4 percentage points; as of January 23, the weekly output is 47.6 tons, down 1.2 tons; the factory inventory is 60.9 tons, down 1.3 tons; the social inventory is 86.2 tons, up 4.7 tons [10]. - Outlook: The supply - demand situation has not significantly improved, but supply disruptions and cost support are expected to boost the asphalt futures market, which is expected to remain strong [10]. Copper - Market data: Zijin Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II project has been put into operation, with the annual copper production expected to increase from 190,000 tons to 300,000 - 350,000 tons [11]. - Outlook: The long - term supply shortage situation remains, but the market is digesting the high - level pressure after the previous price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Market data: Most short - term Shibor varieties have declined. The overnight rate is down 1.7 BP to 1.396%, the 7 - day rate is down 0.6 BP to 1.491%, the 14 - day rate is down 1.3 BP to 1.577%, and the 1 - month rate is up 0.07 BP to 1.5577% [11]. - Outlook: The loosening of the capital market is beneficial to the bond market. The bond market is expected to strengthen with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [11]. Gold - Market factors: The US has increased military deployment and imposed sanctions on Iran, increasing the possibility of war [12]. - Outlook: Safe - haven sentiment supports the gold price. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [12]. Aluminum - Market data: In November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.0226 million tons, and the consumption was 5.8176 million tons, with a surplus of 204,900 tons. From January to November, the production was 66.7204 million tons, and the consumption was 68.248 million tons, with a shortage of 1.5276 million tons [12]. - Outlook: The shortage situation at the end of 2025 has gradually changed to a surplus. In the current off - season, the surplus trend continues. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [12].

Summary of the Conference Call for Zijin Mining Industry Overview - Geopolitical easing has not reduced global asset reallocation, with expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve chairman candidate, which is favorable for non-ferrous metals. Demand for non-ferrous metals is expected to resonate upwards over the next five years [2][4] - Recent funding trends show a return to net inflows, with gold and copper experiencing net outflows while other sectors saw net inflows. A consolidation phase is anticipated due to seasonal factors and high prices, with a potential upward trend post-Chinese New Year [2][5][6] Key Points on Metals Gold - As of the end of 2025, investment-grade gold will account for only 3% of global disposable financial assets, significantly below the historical peak of 5%. This indicates substantial room for gold allocation, which could drive prices higher [2][7] Copper - Electrolytic copper demand is weak, with inventory accumulation noted. However, its financial attributes support copper prices, and downstream replenishment demand is emerging, suggesting limited downside risk for copper prices [2][8] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are low, with stable demand benefiting from export tax rebates and significant growth in photovoltaic demand. The supply-demand balance is relatively strong compared to copper [2][9][10] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing robust demand despite the seasonal downturn, with battery companies actively seeking exports. Supply remains stable, and prices are expected to maintain high levels [2][11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices have risen from 520,000-530,000 to around 670,000, an increase of approximately 20%. Supply is constrained due to national quota controls, while downstream demand continues to grow, indicating a long-term supply-demand imbalance [2][12] Company-Specific Insights on Zijin Mining - Zijin Mining's profit forecast has been significantly revised upwards, with expected net profit of approximately 80.8 billion by 2026. The company is well-positioned for future growth due to a complete management system and ongoing mine upgrades [2][15] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth and profitability, with copper production projected to reach 1.2 million tons and gold production at 105 tons [2][16] - The valuation of Zijin Mining is expected to benefit from its strong growth potential and liquidity, with a target market value revised to 1.6 trillion, reflecting a 20% valuation premium [2][17] - Zijin Mining has completed five resource acquisition projects in the past two years, enhancing its resource reserves and production capacity. Continued acquisitions in 2026 could further strengthen its market competitiveness [2][18] Conclusion - The overall outlook for non-ferrous metals, particularly for Zijin Mining, is positive, with strong demand projections and strategic growth through acquisitions. The company is expected to capitalize on favorable market conditions and maintain a leading position in the industry [2][15][18]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 受益于金价上涨，多家黄金相关企业预计2025年业绩同比增长。 1月25日晚，湖南黄金发布业绩预告，预计2025年净利润为12.7亿元—16.08亿元，同比增长50%— 90%。 对于业绩增长，湖南黄金表示，报告期内，业绩上涨主要是公司金、锑、钨产品销售价格同比上涨。 无独有偶，招金黄金1月25日晚也发布2025年度业绩预告，预计净利润为1.22亿元—1.82亿元，上年同期 亏损12742.80万元。 招金黄金表示，业绩变动原因为主营业务扭亏，子公司斐济瓦图科拉金矿技改增产增效，叠加黄金价格 上涨，毛利润大幅提高。 此前，赤峰黄金曾于1月5日发布2025年年度业绩预增公告，预计2025年度净利润为30亿元到32亿元，与 上年同期（法定披露数据）相比增长约70%到81%。主要原因为公司2025年度主营黄金产量约为14.4 吨，主营黄金产品销售价格同比上升约49%，境内外矿山企业盈利能力增强。 紫金矿业2025年年度业绩也预喜。据紫金矿业公告，预计公司2025年净利润约510亿—520亿元，与上年 同期320.51亿元相比，将增加约189亿—199亿 ...