Core Insights - The report from the China Index Academy indicates that the delivery scale of real estate companies in the first half of 2025 has peaked and is on a downward trend, with pressures on delivery easing in the industry [1][7]. Delivery Scale Rankings - In the first half of 2025, the top real estate company delivered over 50,000 units, with 15 companies delivering more than 10,000 units each [1]. - The delivery numbers for major companies have generally decreased compared to the same period last year, with companies like Greenland, Sunac, and Jianye experiencing declines of over 50% [1]. Company Performance - The report highlights that delivery capability has become a core competitive advantage for real estate companies, with some firms managing to gain market trust by enhancing quality and optimizing services despite the overall contraction in delivery scale [7]. Market Dynamics - The new housing market remains stable, supported by the combination of "good cities + good houses," although there has been a slight weakening in the market in the second quarter [5]. - The government is expected to take stronger measures to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market in the second half of the year [6]. Delivery Quality Improvement - Real estate companies are focusing on product delivery and service optimization to enhance delivery quality, utilizing methods such as open construction days and live broadcasts to build customer trust [4].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the national land transfer revenue was 884.2 billion yuan, which is less than one-third of the same period in 2021, indicating a significant decline in land sales [1] - The top 20 real estate companies accounted for nearly 40% of the equity investment, showing a substantial increase in investment concentration [1] - Leading real estate companies are optimizing their structural layouts to consolidate existing sales rankings and prepare for future growth in scale and quality [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The equity investment ratio among central state-owned enterprises, local city investment platforms, and private enterprises shifted from 3:5:2 in 2023-2024 to 5:3:2 in the first half of 2025, indicating a growing dominance of central state-owned enterprises [2] - In the first half of 2025, central state-owned enterprises accounted for two-thirds of the equity investment amount for the entire year of 2024, with major players like Poly Developments, Greentown, China Overseas, and China Resources leading the land auction market [2] - The land acquisition strategies of leading central state-owned enterprises are showing slight differences, focusing on reinforcing their core markets while adjusting their city layouts [2][3] Group 2: Company Strategies - China Resources Land is focusing on core cities and optimizing its layout structure, actively participating in land auctions to enhance its quality land reserves and performance potential [3][5] - China Overseas Land is adjusting its strategy to capture investment opportunities in core first- and second-tier cities while reducing its presence in third- and fourth-tier cities due to declining sales rates [6][9] - Greentown China is concentrating on high-end improvement opportunities in the Yangtze River Delta and has seen success in cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou, indicating a strong market response to its premium products [10][12] - Poly Developments is actively expanding its investments in first-tier and provincial capital cities while also exploring opportunities in strong third-tier cities, demonstrating a proactive approach to market changes [13][16]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a low allocation to real estate stocks while highlighting potential recovery opportunities in the third quarter [6]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with A-share real estate stocks down by 2.2% and Hong Kong real estate stocks down by 0.4% during the week of July 12-18 [2]. - The land market shows a rising premium rate, with an average premium rate of 11% for residential land in 300 cities, despite a significant year-on-year decline in transaction volume [2][41]. - Sales of new homes in 47 cities totaled 253 million square meters, reflecting a 6% decrease week-on-week and a 9% decrease year-on-year, indicating a seasonal low [3][46]. - The report notes that some real estate companies are beginning to show signs of profit recovery, with 27 out of 73 companies forecasting positive net profits for the first half of 2025 [5][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share real estate sector ranked 30th among all sectors with a decline of 2.2%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector ranked 12th with a decline of 0.4% [2][27]. - The property service index in Hong Kong also saw a decline of 0.4%, underperforming compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which increased by 3.4% [2][33]. Land Market - In the week of July 12-18, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities was 450 million square meters, down 20% week-on-week and 49% year-on-year, with a cumulative area of 19,610 million square meters for the year, reflecting a 5% year-on-year decrease [2][41]. Sales Data - New home sales in June showed a slight month-on-month price decline of 0.3% and a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, indicating a stabilizing market despite ongoing price pressures [3][4]. - The second-hand housing market also reflected similar trends, with a 1% increase week-on-week but a 3% decrease year-on-year in transaction volume [3]. Company Performance - Among the 73 real estate companies that released performance forecasts, 27 expect positive net profits, while 46 anticipate losses. Notably, 6 companies are expected to report profit increases, including prominent firms like Binhai Group and Poly Development [5][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the third quarter will be crucial for policy adjustments that could impact the real estate market's performance in the latter half of the year. It recommends investing in companies with strong product capabilities and those likely to benefit from favorable policies [6].

Group 1: Policy and Market Impact - Fuzhou has released implementation details for converting non-residential stock into affordable rental housing, which aims to increase housing supply and meet the needs of new citizens and young people [1] - In Sichuan, real estate development investment has stabilized, with a 6.5% year-on-year decline in the first half of the year, a reduction of 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The supply of judicial auction properties in June reached a new high of 32,000 units, indicating market pressure and potential impacts on new and second-hand housing prices [3] Group 2: Company Developments - Zhao Hui has been appointed as the Executive President of Greentown China, which may bring new strategies and resource integration to the company [4] - Xiamen C&D Group's plan to issue a public bond of 11.4 billion yuan has received feedback from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which will enhance the company's financing channels and liquidity [5]

开发商们的人事变动依旧频繁。 7月17日，据绿城中国官网，新任执行总裁赵晖已到位；7月16日消息，中国金茂营销中心原总经理李峰早些时候已加盟京投发展担任营销总。 这段时间，越秀地产上海公司迎来新任副总经理李婷婷，她历任旭辉集团产品总监、上海区域设计成本副总经理等；万科苏州原营销合伙人周强加盟中建 七局地产华东公司，担任营销总监一职等等。 中交系的"老人" 绿城这次人事调整，延续了3月以来中交系加强管理的风格。 从绿城中国官网信息看，赵晖，58岁，现任绿城中国党委书记、执行总裁，主要负责党群、华中区域公司、商业管理等工作。 赵晖毕业于清华大学水利水电工程建筑专业，工学博士，教授级高级工程师，国务院国资委第一届、第二届青联委员，享受国务院政府特殊津贴专家，国 家发改委PPP专家库专家。 或许是注意到了外界的关切，在履新后的业绩会首秀中，刘成云就表示，未来大股东中交集团对绿城的支持会越来越强。 除此以外，刘成云还肯定了过去一年绿城管理层的工作，称"市场销售占位稳中有进，产品力优势凸显"。 02 赵晖历任交通部第三航务工程局三公司总经理，三航局党委常委、副局长，中国交建华东区域总部总经理、党工委书记，中交投资有限公司 ...

Core Insights - The newly emerged "national total price king" land in Xuhui District, Shanghai, has a total price of 52.3 billion yuan, breaking previous records for land transactions in mainland China and Hong Kong [1][10][12] - The land, which spans 600,000 square meters, is expected to significantly alter the high-end residential market landscape in Shanghai [1][8] - The final developer for this land is still undecided, with major real estate companies preparing for a competitive bidding process [1][12][13] Summary by Sections Land Details - The land consists of three parcels, with a total area of 600,000 square meters, including 420,000 square meters designated for residential use [1][8] - The land is strategically located near key amenities, including the East An Road subway station and major institutions like Fudan University [5][8] Historical Context - The land's previous use was as worker housing built in the 1950s, and it underwent the largest single land expropriation in Shanghai's history, achieving a 99.95% agreement rate in just five days [9][10] - The three parcels were sold for a total of 52.3 billion yuan, surpassing the previous record of 31.05 billion yuan set by Hong Kong Land in 2020 [10][11] Market Implications - The average floor price for the residential parcels is approximately 12.5 million yuan per square meter, which is competitive compared to recent launches in the area [8][10] - If the pricing trends of nearby projects like Greentown Chaoming Dongfang and Nengjian Xihai Yufu are considered, the residential portion of the "national total price king" could yield a market value of 60 to 70 billion yuan [8][9] Developer Competition - The ownership of the land is currently held by three companies backed by Shanghai state-owned enterprises, but the final developer is yet to be determined [11][12] - Major real estate firms, including state-owned enterprises, are speculated to be potential bidders, with a collaborative development model likely due to the project's scale [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with new housing prices showing a decrease in month-on-month (MoM) but a smaller year-on-year (YoY) decline. The second-hand housing prices are experiencing a similar trend, with a YoY decline narrowing while the MoM decline is expanding [8][19][26]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In June 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.3%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively, with a total of 70 cities showing a MoM decline of -0.3%, which is a 0.1 percentage point increase in decline compared to May [14][15]. - The YoY decline for new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities was -1.4%, -3.0%, and -4.6% respectively, leading to an overall YoY decline of 3.7% for 70 cities, which is a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [14][15]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing prices in June 2025 saw a MoM decline of -0.6%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -0.7%, -0.6%, and -0.6% respectively. This represents an increase in the decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to May [19][21]. - The YoY decline for second-hand housing prices across 70 cities was -6.1%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -3.0%, -5.8%, and -6.7% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the decline for some tiers [19][22]. Regional Performance - In June 2025, Shanghai led the new housing market with a MoM increase of +0.4% and a YoY increase of +6.0%. Among the 35 key cities, only Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan saw YoY increases in new housing prices [26][27]. - The second-hand housing prices in June across 35 cities showed a decline, with only Xining experiencing a MoM increase of +0.1%. The overall trend indicates a consistent decline in second-hand housing prices since early 2024 [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong credit real estate companies that are well-positioned to meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][26]. - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8][26].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Hangzhou is experiencing a significant surge, with record land sales and high premium rates, defying expectations of a market bubble burst [1][2][3] Group 1: Land Sales and Premium Rates - In the first half of the year, Hangzhou's total land transfer revenue reached 116 billion yuan, surpassing Beijing by 15.4 billion yuan, marking a 96% year-on-year increase [1][3] - The average premium rate for land in Hangzhou is approximately 40%, the highest in the country, while the second and third places have rates around 20% [1][7] - Hangzhou successfully sold 68 residential land parcels in the first half of the year, totaling 116 billion yuan, leading both in quantity and amount nationwide [3][8] Group 2: Major Players in the Market - The top contributors to land purchases in Hangzhou include Binjiang Group with 30.8 billion yuan and Greentown China with 17.4 billion yuan [3][4] - The top ten companies in the Yangtze River Delta region spent 147 billion yuan on land, indicating strong competition in this area [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The average new home price in Hangzhou reached 31,777 yuan per square meter in the first half of 2025, nearing Guangzhou's price of 34,442 yuan per square meter [11] - The land floor price in Hangzhou has seen significant increases, with some recent transactions exceeding 80,000 yuan per square meter [9][10] - The luxury housing market is thriving, with high-end properties experiencing substantial demand and price increases, particularly for units priced above 80,000 yuan per square meter [12][21] Group 4: Future Outlook - The trend of rising land prices and the emergence of new luxury projects suggest that Hangzhou is positioning itself as a prominent luxury housing market [10][24] - Upcoming projects are expected to push prices even higher, with estimates suggesting future prices could exceed 100,000 yuan per square meter [25][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].