Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to lead the industry in performance stabilization due to significant impairment provisions, despite a decline in earnings for 2024 [1]. - The company has a healthy debt structure and maintains smooth financing channels, with a total interest-bearing debt of RMB 137.19 billion, down 6.1% [2]. - The company's sales performance remains strong, with a contract sales amount of RMB 276.8 billion in 2024, showing a decline of only 8.1% compared to the industry [3]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 158.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, while net profit is expected to decline by 37.9% to RMB 4.15 billion [1][5]. - The gross profit margin for the period is reported at 12.8%, with a slight increase in property development gross margin to 11.7% [1]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.63, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.7 [5][12]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company added 42 new projects in 2024, with a land acquisition amount of RMB 48.4 billion, focusing on core cities [3]. - The total land reserve area at the end of 2024 is expected to be 27.47 million square meters, with a total land value of RMB 449.6 billion, of which 76% is located in first and second-tier cities [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 153.3 billion, RMB 152.9 billion, and RMB 154.3 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 1.57 billion, RMB 2.11 billion, and RMB 3.05 billion [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to lead the industry in performance stabilization due to significant impairment provisions, despite a decline in earnings for 2024 [1]. - The company has a healthy debt structure and maintains smooth financing channels, with a total interest-bearing debt of RMB 137.19 billion, down 6.1% [2]. - The company's sales performance remains strong, with a contract sales amount of RMB 276.8 billion in 2024, showing a decline of only 8.1% compared to the industry [3]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 158.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, while net profit is expected to decline by 37.9% to RMB 4.15 billion [1][5]. - The company reported a gross margin of 12.8% for the period, with property development gross margin slightly improving to 11.7% [1]. - The forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 153.3 billion, RMB 152.9 billion, and RMB 154.3 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 1.57 billion, RMB 2.11 billion, and RMB 3.05 billion [4][5]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company added 42 new projects in 2024, with a land acquisition amount of RMB 48.4 billion, focusing on core cities [3]. - The company's land reserve at the end of 2024 is projected to be 27.47 million square meters, with a total land value of RMB 449.6 billion, of which 76% is located in first and second-tier cities [3]. Debt and Financing - The company has successfully optimized its debt structure, with a net debt ratio of 56.6% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.3 times, indicating financial stability [2]. - The company issued bonds totaling RMB 12.53 billion in 2024, with an average issuance rate of 3.88% [2].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the profit forecast for Greentown China for 2025/2026 from 3 billion/3.2 billion to 1.2 billion/1.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -24%/+30% [1] - The current stock price corresponds to 0.7/0.7 times the 2025/2026 P/B ratio, while the target price has been raised by 13% to HKD 13.0, indicating a 15% upside potential [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Greentown China's 2024 revenue increased by 21% to 158.5 billion, with a slight decline in gross margin by 0.2 percentage points to 12.8% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 48% to 1.6 billion, primarily due to a provision for impairment and fair value losses totaling 4.9 billion, along with a loss of 600 million from joint ventures [2] - The company declared a full-year dividend of 0.3 yuan per share, yielding a dividend rate of 2.9% [2] Group 2: Land Acquisition and Investment Strategy - In 2024, Greentown acquired 42 land parcels with a total equity land acquisition amount of 48.4 billion, ranking fourth in the land acquisition list by CRIC [2] - The company focused on core cities, with 92% of new land prices in first and second-tier cities, up from 84% in 2023 [2] - The new land reserves are expected to contribute 32.5 billion in sales, achieving a conversion rate of 30% [2] Group 3: Financial Health and Debt Management - The company maintained a high collection efficiency with a collection rate of 104%, and interest-bearing debt decreased by 6% to 137.2 billion [3] - Key leverage indicators improved, with the pre-debt ratio and net debt ratio declining by 1.1 and 7.2 percentage points to 68.5% and 56.6%, respectively [3] - The average financing cost at the end of 2024 dropped by 40 basis points to 3.9%, marking the first time it fell below 4% [3] Group 4: Management and Strategic Support - The new chairman from the China Communications Construction Company reflects further support for Greentown, potentially enhancing its financial stability and strategic alignment [4] - The company's strong product capability and flexible operational strategies are expected to leverage the group's credit advantages for greater value release [4] Group 5: Sales Performance Outlook - Greentown's total sales for 2024 are projected at 171.8 billion, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 10% [5] - The company has secured around 200 billion in supply for 2024, with over 80% in first and second-tier cities [5] - If the overall sales rate remains at 62%, the sales could reach 125 billion, with additional contributions from newly acquired land expected to exceed 30 billion [5]

房地产/房地产开发 绿城中国（03900.HK） 2025 年 04 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/1 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 11.340 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 13.780/0.000 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 287.39 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 287.39 | | 总股本(亿股) | 25.34 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 25.34 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 38.95 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 绿城中国 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《减值影响业绩表现，拿地强度维持 高 位 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.2.11 《销售拿地表现亮眼，行业排名持续 攀 升 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.1.10 《公开市场拿地稳健积极，销售均价 显著提升—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.12.9 减值影响净利表现，周转提速，坚决布局核心城市 —— ...

"我国房地产市场经历近4年深度调整，2025年开年以来，行业出现多项积极市场信号，叠加国家政策层 面持续加力，我们认为行业已经进入'止跌回稳'阶段。"3月31日，在绿城中国控股有限公司(以下简 称"绿城中国")业绩会上，绿城中国董事会主席刘成云表示。 3月28日，绿城中国发布的2024年成绩单显示，公司实现营业收入1585.5亿元，同比增长20.7%，实现归 母净利润16.0亿元。2024年，绿城中国总合同销售额2768亿元，位列行业第三。 去存量优增量 面对市场的止跌回稳，绿城中国在销售方面两手抓，既加大力度进行存量去化，同时也积极获取增量项 目。 在存量去化上，2024年，绿城中国实现重难点库存去化422亿元，指标完成率113%，超额完成48亿元。 "新规产品的不断出现，导致老产品竞争力减弱，去年，公司把存量去化当作工作的重中之重去抓，在 年初进一步提升住宅长库存、车商储等难销货值的目标。"绿城中国执行董事、执行总裁耿忠强表示， 在实现目标过程中，公司通过老盘新作、大宗交易等多措并举，2024年底达到并超越了年初的既定目 标。 值得一提的是，绿城中国不少库存住宅来源于2021年的项目，随着这部分项目的加快 ...

导 读 3月土地市场成交量跌价升，呈现点状火热的态势；预计重点城市土地热度将继续维持，投资持 续筑底， 央国企保持在核心城市拿地积极性。 ☉ 文／克而瑞研究中心 | | | | 2025年1-3月 ·中国房地产企业 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 企业名称 | 新增土地价值 (亿元) | 排名 | 企业名称 | 新增土地建面 (万平方米) | | 1 | 未润黑瓶 | 329 4 | 1 | 绿城中国 | 118.0 | | 2 | 中海地产 | 298.0 | 2 | 华润置地 | 104. 1 | | 3 | 绿城中国 | 287.0 | 3 | 中海地产 | 98. 4 | | 4 | 招商蛇口 | 217.7 | 4 | 招商蛇口 | 98.2 | | 5 | 中国金茂 | 199.3 | 5 | 保利发展 | 88.9 | | 6 | 滨江集团 | 195.8 | 6 | 海泰置业 | 86.9 | | 7 | 建发房产 | 193.9 | 7 | 印象置业 | 71.9 | | 8 | 保利发展 | 173.9 | 8 | 邦泰 ...

而这一次，三十岁的绿城再度交出了一份"硬核"成绩单。 3月28日，绿城中国如期公布年度业绩。2024年公司营收1586.46亿元，较上一年提升20.7%，刷新历史 新高，毛利突破200亿元大关，物业销售业务毛利率同比增长0.4个百分点。 据悉，伴随着杭州桂冠东方、北京沁园、上海前滩百合园等优质项目确认结算，2024年绿城中国物业收 入结转面积同比增长2.5%达635.21万平方米，结转收入的物业销售均价也在2023年的每平方米19456元 进一步提升到每平方米23145元，助力公司取得营收、毛利同时提升的优异成绩。 优质项目的成功兑现离不开销售端的发力。财报显示，年内绿城中国累计实现总合同金额2768亿元，稳 居行业第三，自投销售1718亿元、权益销售1206亿元，行业排名均有所上升。 与此同时，2024年绿城中国累计实现总合同金额2768亿元，位列克而瑞操盘口径下行业第三，进一步夯 实地产"第一梯队"的位置。 当然，在绿城中国的2024年年报中，还出现了诸多亮点。譬如，公司去化工作进展显著，降本增效稳步 实施；财务方面，公司延续了一贯稳健，安全属性突出；此外，基于对核心城市布局叠加产品品质优先 的站位，也让 ...

3月31日，绿城中国(03900)召开2024年度业绩发布会。绿城中国董事会主席、非执行董事刘成云，执行 董事、行政总裁郭佳峰，执行总裁耿忠强等管理层出席会议现场。此前，绿城中国发布2024年年度业 绩，取得收入约人民币1585.46亿元，同比增长20.7%；股东应占利润约人民币15.96亿元。 在会上，刘成云对行业发展表达看法。刘成云表示，当前房地产市场"止跌回稳"需要一定时间，根据成 熟房地产市场经验，房地产市场从深度调整、过渡到筑底企稳、再到市场拉升，不是一蹴而就的，这一 过程中的宏观经济走势、购房者预期信心、市场库存去化等多种因素会导致这个阶段需要一定时间。 同时，各城市止跌回稳周期不同步。一二线城市比三四线城市率先企稳，二线城市企稳存在分化，如杭 州、成都表现较为突出。 此外，当前房地产市场优质项目头部效应凸显。自去年四季度以来，多城市房地产市场销量向位置好、 产品力强、性价比高的项目进一步集中，品牌房企产品力强的新盘表现尤为突出。 在投资方面，坚持"确保安全性，突出流动性，均衡盈利性"，除聚焦一二线核心城市外，更加重视对项 目自身质地的研判，关注非热点城市优质板块的结构性机会；销售方面，更加关注权 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has shown a month-on-month increase, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [3] - The sales decline is continuing to narrow, with land transaction volumes decreasing, which is suppressing new construction momentum [3] - The first quarter of 2025 has seen a preliminary stabilization in sales, supported by more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [8] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three months of 2025, the top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales amount of 784.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, with a cumulative equity sales area of 57.67 million square meters, down 5.0% year-on-year [5] - The average sales price for the top 100 companies was 19,960.6 yuan per square meter [5] - The sales performance among different tiers of companies showed low differentiation, with the top 10, 50, and 100 companies experiencing year-on-year sales declines of 8.4%, 7.1%, and 7.3% respectively [6] Company Insights - Poly Development maintained the highest sales scale in the first quarter, with a total sales amount of 63 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% [7] - China Overseas Property experienced a significant year-on-year sales decline of 22.9% [7] - Companies like Yuexiu Property and Huafa achieved impressive sales growth, with year-on-year increases of 42.0% and 44.8% respectively [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong fundamentals in urban areas and those capable of capturing the demand from improvement-type customers, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Jinmao [8] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery include New City Holdings and Longfor Group [8] - The second-hand housing transaction scale and penetration rate are expected to continue rising, indicating a promising outlook for the real estate after-service market [8]

[ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 159,135 | 143,805 | 129,890 | 126,015 | | 同比增速(%) | 20.6% | -9.6% | -9.7% | -3.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,596 | 2,539 | 3,552 | 3,957 | | 同比增速(%) | -48.4% | 69.1% | 39.9% | 11.4% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.63 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 1.56 | | 市盈率(倍) | 15.7 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 6.3 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 3 月 31 日收盘价 证 券 研 究 报 告 绿城中国（03900.HK）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 产品和拿地精准度才是主要矛盾 目标价：14 港元 事项： ...