Core Viewpoint - The supply constraints for aluminum in the coming year are expected to be strong, while long-term power bottlenecks will continue to limit capacity growth [1] Supply Side - The supply constraints for aluminum are confirmed for the next year, with ongoing power bottlenecks expected to restrict capacity expansion in the long term [1] Demand Side - Aluminum is experiencing weak negative feedback from downstream sectors due to its cost-effectiveness, and the substitution of aluminum for copper is gradually expanding into the air conditioning sector [1] - The concerns regarding demand overextension in the first half of the year have not materialized, driven by export demand for end products [1] Trade Dynamics - The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to slightly increase the overall cost curve for the industry [1] Price Dynamics - Despite the current price increase being influenced by the financial premium of copper and the absorption effect of U.S. copper, the long-term co-integration relationship between copper and aluminum is not expected to easily break down, indicating significant potential for aluminum price increases and a return of the copper-aluminum ratio to its mean [1]

Group 1 - The "Qihang·2025 Financial Summit" was successfully held in Beijing, focusing on the theme of "New Starting Point, New Momentum, New Journey," gathering hundreds of leaders and guests from regulatory bodies, industry associations, financial institutions, listed companies, and media [1] - The 14th "Golden Wisdom Award" results were announced, with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) winning the "Outstanding Brand Award" [1][3] - The "Golden Wisdom Award" aims to establish benchmarks for high-quality development, guiding listed companies to focus on their main businesses, innovate continuously, and fulfill social responsibilities [3] Group 2 - The "Outstanding Brand Award" evaluates comprehensive brand strength based on market recognition, product service innovation, industry influence, and social responsibility, aiming to set industry quality and innovation benchmarks [4] - CICC is celebrating its 30th anniversary in 2025, showcasing brand strength through excellent performance across all business lines and continuous innovation [4] - In the investment banking sector, CICC participated in 7 out of the top 10 A-share IPOs in the past five years and 14 out of the top 20 Hong Kong projects in 2025, maintaining a leading market position [4] - In 2023, CICC facilitated over 1.3 trillion yuan in transactions related to technology finance through equity financing, bond financing, and M&A services, reinforcing the strength of state-owned financial institutions [4] - As of September 2025, CICC's net assets reached 115.5 billion yuan, with multiple core indicators ranking among the industry's top [4] - In December, CICC announced a share-swap merger with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, which is expected to significantly expand the combined entity's net assets and net capital, providing strong support for business expansion and further solidifying brand influence [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but the analysis suggests a cautious outlook for 2026 due to supply constraints and demand resilience. Core Insights - The report indicates that 2026 is expected to be a turning point for the aviation industry, with a genuine reversal in supply and demand dynamics anticipated [60][64]. - Supply constraints are highlighted, with aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus expected to continue facing delivery delays, impacting overall capacity [9][12]. - Demand remains resilient, with a projected growth rate of approximately 5% for 2026, despite supply limitations [36][56]. Supply Summary - Aircraft manufacturers are experiencing capacity shortages, with Boeing and Airbus not expected to return to pre-pandemic delivery levels [9][10]. - The report notes that the delivery volume for Boeing's B737MAX and Airbus's A320NEO remains below pre-pandemic figures, with 2026 targets still not reaching those levels [10]. - Engine issues are affecting the industry, with an increase in grounded aircraft expected in 2026 due to problems with Pratt & Whitney engines [16][17]. - The aircraft utilization rate is projected to increase slightly in 2026, but the growth potential is limited [21]. Demand Summary - The demand for air travel is expected to show resilience, with a projected passenger turnover growth of 8% in 2025, leading to a 5% growth in 2026 [37][56]. - Domestic air travel demand is anticipated to outpace rail travel, with increasing flight distances to counter competition from high-speed rail [41][44]. - The report suggests that the passenger load factor is expected to reach historical highs, with a forecasted increase to 87% in 2026 [50][56]. - Potential demand growth is expected to exceed 5%, but actual demand growth will be constrained by supply limitations [53][56]. Conclusion - The aviation industry is poised for a significant shift in 2026, with supply constraints likely to create a supply-demand imbalance, leading to increased ticket prices and a focus on capacity management [60][66].

Summary of the Securities Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The securities industry is expected to continue a slow bull market in 2026, supported by proprietary and brokerage businesses, despite a decline in commission rates from 0.195% at the end of last year to approximately 0.17% by the end of this year [1][5] - The overall valuation of the securities sector has decreased to around 1.4 times, which is at the 30th percentile of the past decade [3][4] Key Points Performance in 2025 - The securities sector underperformed compared to other financial sub-sectors like insurance and banking, despite a significant profit growth of over 60% in the first three quarters, driven mainly by brokerage and proprietary trading [1][4] - Major brokerages such as Dongfang Caifu, CITIC Securities, Guosen Securities, and Galaxy Securities achieved a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 9%-10% [1][4] Focus Areas for 2026 - Investment strategies should focus on the following areas: - **Asset Management (AM)**: Expected to see a positive growth rate in 2025, but the net income growth was only 4% in the first three quarters. The introduction of new public fund commission regulations is anticipated to boost revenue growth in 2026 [2][11] - **Investment Banking (IB)**: Currently at the bottom of the cycle, with a potential recovery as the market improves [9][13] - **International Business**: High concentration among leading firms like CITIC, CICC, and Huatai, with expected growth in 2026 as these firms leverage their competitive advantages in Hong Kong [2][12] Market Conditions - The A-share IPO market remains tight, with a focus on balancing investment and financing, leading to a smaller number and scale of IPOs. The suspension of IPOs since the end of 2023 continues [1][8] - The Hong Kong IPO and refinancing market has recovered quickly, but the profitability of these activities is not as robust as that of A-share IPOs [10] Future Projections - The overall ROE for the securities industry is projected to be around 7.5% in 2025, with leading firms achieving approximately 10%. The growth in profitability is expected to be modest, reaching around 8% [2][13] - The proprietary trading business is shifting towards OCI accounts, which may enhance the stability of the profit statement but reduce its elasticity [6] Additional Insights - The focus on investment banking, asset management, and international business is crucial due to their potential for growth and improvement in market conditions [7][9] - The concentration of international business among a few leading firms indicates a strong competitive barrier, which may benefit these firms in the long run [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating continuously since late November, recently reaching new highs for the year, with the offshore RMB rate surpassing 7.0, accelerating in its appreciation [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Exchange Rate Movement** - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.0 mark on December 25, reaching its highest level since September 2024, while the onshore RMB rate is also close to the 7.0 threshold, marking its highest since May 2023 [1]. - **Drivers of Appreciation** - The depreciation of the US dollar and seasonal factors are identified as direct drivers of the current appreciation of the RMB. However, monetary authorities have moderately restrained the pace of this appreciation [1]. - **Market Expectations** - Overall, the year-end appreciation of the RMB is not unexpected, although the extent of the appreciation has slightly exceeded expectations. The primary factors contributing to this rapid appreciation in the short term are the significant decline of the US dollar and the resonance of seasonal factors [1].

Core Viewpoint - The financial cycle, characterized by the interplay between housing prices and credit, influences the current account and currency exchange rates, with upward cycles lowering the current account but raising the domestic currency value, while downward cycles have the opposite effect [1] Group 1: Financial Cycle Insights - The financial cycle is defined as a long-term cycle where housing prices and credit reinforce each other [1] - The relationship between the financial cycle and exchange rate trends is acknowledged, suggesting that exchange rates may still be influenced by the financial cycle [1] Group 2: Real Estate Investment Attributes - The investment attributes of real estate in China have weakened in recent years, while its consumption attributes have strengthened [1] - The significance of the housing price-to-income ratio and the difference between rental yields and mortgage rates has increased in assessing the financial cycle [1] Group 3: Currency and Market Performance - The report indicates that the RMB exchange rate is not significantly undervalued, and the Chinese stock market has performed well [1] - The weakening of the US dollar contributes to a reasonable phase of mild recovery in the RMB exchange rate [1]

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings (00700), Alibaba-W (09988), and Hong Kong Exchanges (00388) ranked as the top three in net inflow of southbound funds, with net inflows of 1.115 billion, 1.055 billion, and 309 million respectively [1] - China Mobile (00941), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), and CICC (03908) had the highest net outflows, with net outflows of -1.053 billion, -184 million, and -181 million respectively [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, China Telecom Services (00552), Yihua Tong (02402), and Sunshine Insurance (06963) led the market with ratios of 167.31%, 126.18%, and 118.17% respectively [1] Net Inflow Rankings - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 1.115 billion, representing a 13.09% increase, closing at 614.500 (+0.08%) [2] - Alibaba-W (09988) saw a net inflow of 1.055 billion, with a 12.23% increase, closing at 146.400 (+0.76%) [2] - Hong Kong Exchanges (00388) recorded a net inflow of 309 million, with a 24.77% increase, closing at 407.000 (0.00%) [2] Net Outflow Rankings - China Mobile (00941) experienced a net outflow of -1.053 billion, with a -54.21% decrease, closing at 83.700 (-0.24%) [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) had a net outflow of -184 million, down -29.82%, closing at 19.100 (+1.76%) [2] - CICC (03908) faced a net outflow of -181 million, with a -30.22% decrease, closing at 20.540 (+0.98%) [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - China Telecom Services (00552) led with a net inflow ratio of 167.31%, with a net inflow of 26.5926 million, closing at 4.520 (-0.88%) [3] - Yihua Tong (02402) followed with a net inflow ratio of 126.18%, with a net inflow of 26.5481 million, closing at 23.980 (+0.33%) [3] - Sunshine Insurance (06963) had a net inflow ratio of 118.17%, with a net inflow of 31.5558 million, closing at 3.940 (-0.51%) [3] Net Outflow Ratio Rankings - Ark Health (06086) had the highest net outflow ratio of -478.67%, with a net outflow of -3.4612 million, closing at 2.570 (-0.39%) [3] - Crystal International (02232) followed with a net outflow ratio of -132.72%, with a net outflow of -13.3532 million, closing at 6.900 (-0.14%) [3] - Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine (03613) recorded a net outflow ratio of -110.40%, with a net outflow of -4.9769 million, closing at 8.520 (+0.12%) [3]

Core Insights - The investment landscape for 2026 is characterized by a shift from "single-sided bets" to "balanced allocation," focusing on AI hardware and high-dividend assets as a hedge against market volatility [1][5] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 should embrace AI hardware as a certain growth direction while retaining high-dividend assets for risk mitigation [1][5] - The market environment in 2026 will be defined by excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, with the ability of these assets to expand being a critical variable [2] Group 2: Scarce Return Assets - AI hardware, particularly supported by government policies, remains a primary focus for investment, despite high short-term expectations leading to elevated valuations [2][3] - High-dividend assets are crucial in an environment of contracting private credit, providing stability and acting as a "cash is king" buffer during credit downturns [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market benefits from a unique structure where its fundamentals are driven by mainland companies while liquidity is influenced by both domestic and overseas capital [4] - The inflow of southbound funds is expected to show differentiation, with long-term investors like insurance funds continuing to increase holdings in high-dividend assets, while retail and private funds may fluctuate based on A-share market activity [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, with 10% to 20% of funds directed towards high-dividend assets, adaptable based on individual risk preferences [5] - The Hong Kong market's structural advantages, particularly in high-dividend offerings, are highlighted as key attractions for institutional investors [5] - Strong cyclical sectors, particularly those benefiting from U.S. demand, are also recommended for consideration, while the consumer sector lacks fundamental support [5]

作者 |崔峻阳 编辑 | 袁畅 在低利率逐渐成为常态之后，一个有些"奇怪"的行业现象开始出现。 一方面，面向大众的现金类工具，回报越来越接近，功能也越来越趋同。 另一方面，一些只在大型券商高端理财货架上出现、主要面向私募客户的产品，却在"放现金"这件事上，走出了完全不同 的路径。 原本最应该简单透明的"现金"，开始被放进更复杂的安排之中。 这种变化并不张扬，也很少被单独拿出来讨论，却正在悄然发生。 对于一部分资金来说，"放在哪里"不再只是收益高低的选择，而是进入了另一套运行体系。 01 闲钱产品中的"例外" 当前低利率环境下，那些暂时不用、但随时能取的钱，放在哪种产品里，回报已经差不多。 资事堂注意到，中金公司旗下的财富平台上，一款名为"现金宝"的产品在同类现金类产品中显得较为突出。 该产品全称为"外贸信托-中金现金宝XX号集合资金信托计划"，下文简称为"中金现金宝"。公开资料显示，该产品面向私募 类高净值客户开放， 七日年化收益率可达1.9%（截至2025年12月25日）。 这一收益表现的"突出"，来自与当前主流现金管理工具的直接对照。 截至目前，国有大行一年期定存利率已降至1%以下，五年期定存利率约为1. ...

Core Insights - Investors are facing a complex situation as the global economic cycle approaches a critical turning point by the end of 2025, with strong long-term growth potential from AI but high valuations and expectations [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 should shift from "single-sided bets" to "balanced allocation," embracing AI hardware as a certain growth direction while retaining high-dividend assets for hedging [2] Scarcity of Return Assets - The core characteristic of the 2026 market environment will be excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, with the ability of these assets to expand being a key variable [3] - AI hardware, particularly supported by government policies, remains a clear direction for scarce return assets, despite high short-term expectations and valuations [3] High Dividend Assets - High dividend-paying assets are crucial hedging tools in an environment of contracting private credit, providing stable returns amidst overall credit contraction [4] - Strong cyclical sectors may benefit from U.S. fiscal expansion and monetary easing, potentially boosting demand for commodities like copper and aluminum [4] Opportunities in Hong Kong Market - The influx of southbound funds has provided significant liquidity to the Hong Kong market, with an average monthly inflow exceeding 120 billion from January to November 2025 [5] - The unique structure of the Hong Kong market, driven by mainland companies and influenced by both domestic and overseas liquidity, creates complex rotation patterns [5] Fund Flow Dynamics - The flow of southbound funds may become differentiated, with long-term allocation funds like insurance continuing to invest in high-dividend assets, while trading funds may shift back to A-shares if the market becomes more active [6] - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for individual investors, with 10% to 20% of funds allocated to high-dividend assets [6] Sector Focus - The Hong Kong market's structural advantages remain prominent, with high dividends being a core attraction for institutional investors [6] - AI hardware, supported by policy, offers high certainty, while strong cyclical sectors benefiting from U.S. demand are also worth attention [6] - Individual investors are advised to use thematic ETFs to participate in the Hong Kong market rather than directly betting on individual stocks [7]