Summary of CMOC Research Call Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC (China Molybdenum Co., Ltd.) - **Ticker**: 603993.SS / 3993.HK - **Industry**: Non-ferrous metals, primarily mining and processing - **Key Assets**: Tenke Fungurume Mine (TFM) and Kisanfu Mine (KFM) in DR Congo, leading producer of tungsten, cobalt, niobium, molybdenum, and a major copper producer Key Financial Updates - **Target Price Revision**: - H-share target price raised to HK$28.3 from HK$20.6 - A-share target price raised to Rmb25.5 from Rmb19.0 - Target price implies 16.2x PE for H-share and 16.3x PE for A-share based on DCF valuation [1][5][32] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Revised net profit estimates for 2025/26/27E increased by 3.8%/34.2%/17.5% to Rmb20.5bn/33.9bn/31.8bn, respectively [1][4][9] - **Earnings Breakdown**: - Expected EBIT from TFM+KFM at Rmb47.2bn in 2026E, covering 82% of total EBIT - Contributions from other segments: Moly and Tungsten (8%), Brazil gold assets (6%), Niobium and Phosphate (3%) [3] Brazil Gold Assets Acquisition - **Acquisition Details**: Completed in January 2026, expected to produce 7.1 tons of gold in 2026E - **Financial Impact**: Anticipated contribution of Rmb2.4bn to net profit, accounting for 7% of total net profit based on a gold price forecast of US$4,600/oz [2][4] Market and Price Sensitivity - **Copper and Cobalt Price Sensitivity**: - Net profit sensitivity analysis indicates significant impact from fluctuations in copper and cobalt prices [10] - **Gold Price Sensitivity**: - Net profit also sensitive to changes in gold prices, with a base case at US$4,600/oz [12] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Maintained as "Buy" due to positive business fundamentals, including expected output increases from TFM and KFM expansion projects and bullish medium-term copper price outlook driven by renewable energy demand [31][35] Risks - **Key Risks**: - Slowing grid investment in China - Weaker-than-expected real estate investment affecting copper demand - Acceleration of global mine supply could negatively impact prices [33][37] Conclusion - CMOC is positioned for growth with revised profit forecasts and strategic acquisitions, while maintaining a positive outlook on copper prices and operational expansions. However, investors should remain cautious of potential market risks that could affect performance.

每经AI快讯，洛阳钼业(03993.HK)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.09%，报22.9港元，成交额2.37亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in non-ferrous metal stocks on February 10, with notable gains among several companies in the sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Nuclear International (02302.HK) experienced a surge of over 12.7% [1] - China General Nuclear Power Corporation Mining (01164.HK) increased by more than 7% [1] - Jiangxi Copper Company (00358.HK) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) both rose nearly 4% [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) and Zijin Mining (02899.HK) each saw gains exceeding 2.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 22.9, following the completion of a USD 1.015 billion acquisition of a gold mine in Brazil, which has reserves of 3.87 million ounces at an average grade of 1.45 grams per ton [1] Group 1: Acquisition and Production Plans - The acquisition of the Brazilian gold mine is expected to synergize with the company's existing copper and cobalt businesses, enhancing overall profitability [1] - Management plans to contribute 6-8 tons of gold production by 2026, with a target to increase annual production to 20 tons before 2030 [1] Group 2: Profitability and Production Guidance - Morgan Stanley has raised the company's profit expectations for 2026-2027 by 27%-30%, anticipating over 50% profit growth for consecutive years [1] - The copper production guidance for 2026 is set at 760,000 to 820,000 tons, driven by process optimization and technological upgrades at TFM and KFM mines [1] - The KFM Phase II project is expected to commence production in 2027, adding approximately 100,000 tons of copper capacity annually [1] - The target for copper production in 2028 is set at 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons, with the TFM Phase III project currently undergoing feasibility studies for additional capacity [1] - The company aims to further optimize copper business unit costs by reducing bulk material procurement prices and maintaining leading capital expenditure and operational cost levels globally [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) has seen a stock increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 22.9 with a transaction volume of HKD 237 million, following the completion of a USD 1.015 billion acquisition of a gold mine in Brazil, which has reserves of 3.87 million ounces at an average grade of 1.45 grams per ton [1] Group 1: Acquisition and Production Plans - The acquisition of the Brazilian gold mine is expected to synergize with the company's existing copper and cobalt businesses, enhancing overall profitability [1] - Management plans to contribute 6-8 tons of gold production by 2026 and aims to increase annual production to 20 tons before 2030 [1] Group 2: Profitability and Production Guidance - Morgan Stanley has raised the company's profit expectations for 2026-2027 by 27%-30%, anticipating over 50% profit growth for consecutive years [1] - The copper production guidance for 2026 is set at 760,000 to 820,000 tons, driven by process optimization and technological upgrades at TFM and KFM mines [1] - The KFM Phase II project is expected to commence production in 2027, adding approximately 100,000 tons of copper capacity annually [1] Group 3: Cost Optimization - The company aims to further optimize unit costs in its copper business by reducing the procurement price of bulk materials and maintaining leading levels of capital expenditure and operational costs globally [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Non-ferrous Metals ETF Fund (516650), which opened with a gain of 1.90% at 2.145 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Non-ferrous Metals ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Huayou Cobalt, which also experienced gains [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-Industry Non-ferrous Metals Theme Index return, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., with a return of 110.83% since its inception on June 9, 2021, and a 4.15% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880), which opened with a gain of 2.06% at 2.233 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (2.14%), Northern Rare Earth (2.97%), and Huayou Cobalt (1.49%) [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the National Index of Nonferrous Metals Industry, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 118.94% since its inception on March 8, 2021, and a 5.03% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which opened with a gain of 2.07% at 1.135 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the nonferrous metals sector [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has a performance benchmark of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Huabao Fund Management Co., with a return of 122.52% since its establishment on March 12, 2021, and a recent one-month return of 4.76% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is experiencing a significant increase in gold production and is strategically expanding its operations in the precious metals sector, while also maintaining a strong position in various metal markets [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, smelting, and deep processing of precious metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold, and has a comprehensive integrated industrial chain [2][7]. - The company is one of the top five molybdenum producers globally and the largest tungsten producer, as well as the second-largest cobalt and niobium producer, and a leading copper producer [2][3]. - The company is also the second-largest producer of phosphate fertilizer in Brazil, with a complete phosphate industry chain [3][7]. Group 2: Production and Financial Performance - The company holds an 80% stake in the NPM copper-gold mine in Australia, with gold production guidance for 2023 set to increase by 56% to 69% compared to 2022, reaching between 25,000 to 27,000 ounces [2]. - For the first nine months of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.99% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.28 billion yuan [8]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [8]. Group 3: Market Activity and Stock Performance - On February 9, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock rose by 1.96%, with a trading volume of 4.236 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 479.66 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 117 million yuan from major investors, indicating a reduction in holdings over the past three days [4][5]. - The average trading cost of the stock is 18.69 yuan, with the current price approaching a resistance level of 22.70 yuan, suggesting potential for upward movement if this level is surpassed [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal mining ETF, which opened with a gain of 1.94% at 2.254 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings in the non-ferrous metal mining ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others showing positive gains [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index return, managed by China Merchants Fund Management Co., with a return of 121.32% since its establishment on June 21, 2023, and a 5.62% return over the past month [1]