Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts China's GDP growth to reach 5% year-on-year by 2025, driven primarily by consumption stimulation from the trade-in policy [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The growth trend in the commodity market is expected to continue into 2026, with global demand-driven metals (such as gold, copper, and lithium) outperforming domestic demand-driven sectors (like coal and steel) [1] - Supply disruptions and accelerated industry consolidation are anticipated to persist throughout the year [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The trade-in subsidy policy is projected to extend into 2026, with incentives becoming more targeted and efficiency-focused, still providing substantial support for overall commodity demand [1] Group 3: Industry Preferences - The preferred order for the basic materials sector in 2026 is gold and copper, followed by aluminum, lithium, coal, and steel [1] - The materials sector is expected to continue outperforming the MSCI China Index in 2026 [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to buy Zijin Mining (02899, 601899.SH) and to accumulate China Aluminum (02600, 601600.SH) and China Hongqiao (01378) on dips [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) may experience a temporary pause due to the issuance of convertible bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts China's GDP growth to reach 5% year-on-year by 2025, driven primarily by consumption stimulation from the trade-in policy [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The growth trend in the commodity market is expected to continue into 2026, with global demand-driven metals (such as gold, copper, and lithium) outperforming domestic demand-driven sectors (like coal and steel) [1] - Supply disruptions and accelerated industry consolidation are anticipated to persist throughout the year [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The trade-in subsidy policy is projected to extend into 2026, with incentives becoming more targeted and efficiency-focused, still providing substantial support for overall commodity demand [1] Group 3: Industry Preferences - The preferred order for the basic materials sector in 2026 is gold and copper, followed by aluminum, lithium, coal, and steel [1] - The materials sector is expected to continue outperforming the MSCI China Index in 2026 [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to buy Zijin Mining (02899, 601899.SH) and to accumulate China Aluminum (02600, 601600.SH) and China Hongqiao (01378) on dips [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) may experience a temporary pause due to the issuance of convertible bonds [1]

Precious Metals Industry - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves to diversify risk, with China's central bank having increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [1] - The global monetary easing expectations are rising, leading to a weaker dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of precious and non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [1] - The market for precious metals is expected to experience a broad rally starting in early 2026, characterized by a resonance between financial and industrial attributes [1] - Key players in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Guoyuan Platinum, all of which are focusing on optimizing production and expanding operations [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The demand for non-ferrous metals such as silver, copper, and aluminum is growing due to the rigid requirements from emerging industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI servers [1] - The market dynamics for non-ferrous metals are changing, driven by both traditional infrastructure demand and new energy sectors [1] - Major companies in the non-ferrous metals sector include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, and Tin Industry Co., which are involved in mining, refining, and processing of various metals [4]

| 股票名称 | 沽空金额↓ | 沽空比率 | 偏离值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 泡泡玛特(09992) | 10.08 亿元 | 17.14% | -7.69% | | 小米集团-W(01810) | 8.25 亿元 | 10.26% | -11.52% | | 美团-W(03690) | 7.77 亿元 | 17.49% | 1.85% | | 中国人寿(02628) | 7.18 亿元 | 23.90% | 3.47% | | 洛阳钼业(03993) | 6.87 亿元 | 35.31% | 21.99% | | 百度集团-SW(09888) | 6.24 亿元 | 21.01% | -5.12% | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988) | 6.13 亿元 | 6.91% | -7.34% | | 比亚迪股份(01211) | 4.97 亿元 | 20.25% | 0.39% | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 4.79 亿元 | 3.27% | -7.53% | | 中国平安(02318) | 3.47 亿元 | 16.40% | -12.96% | 前十大沽空偏离值排行 ...

Core Insights - The "original brand" is a competitive industry in Henan, with mining, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and building materials evolving to achieve high-end industrial development and green practices [2] Group 1: Industry Developments - The industry is witnessing a transformation where traditional resources are creatively converted, enhancing the resilience of the industrial chain [2] - The shift from traditional industries to high-end manufacturing and energy transition is exemplified by companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, which has become a key resource provider globally [2] Group 2: Company Highlights - Yuelian Group's products include aluminum materials for beverage cans, battery foils, and high-performance automotive sheets, with a global market share of 10% in beverage can body materials and leading domestic market position in aluminum alloy strips [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum has surpassed Glencore to become the world's largest cobalt producer in 2023 and is expected to rank among the top ten copper producers in 2024 [3] - Zhongyuan Dahua has successfully completed pilot testing of China's first thousand-ton biomass ethylene glycol facility, producing 99.9% pure polyester-grade ethylene glycol, with technology at an international leading level [3]

Core Viewpoint - Several listed companies in the non-ferrous metals industry have released optimistic performance forecasts for 2025, driven by product price increases and production growth, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Zijin Mining Group expects a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, supported by increased production and sales prices of gold, copper, and silver [1]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining anticipates a net profit of 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 70% to 81%, with gold production expected to be approximately 14.4 tons and sales prices rising by about 49% [2]. - Northern Rare Earth forecasts a net profit of 2.176 billion to 2.356 billion yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 116.67% to 134.60%, driven by new technologies and products [2]. - Jinchuan Magnetics expects a net profit of 660 million to 760 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 127% to 161%, attributed to record high product sales in various applications [2]. - Xianglu Tungsten Industry predicts a net profit of 125 million to 180 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses, supported by rising tungsten prices and increased sales orders [3]. - Huayou Cobalt anticipates a net profit of 5.85 billion to 6.45 billion yuan for 2025, a growth of 40.80% to 55.24%, benefiting from improved production and cost management [3]. - Luoyang Molybdenum expects a net profit of 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth of 47.80% to 53.71%, driven by increased production and effective cost control [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The positive performance forecasts are attributed to multiple factors, including government policy support, improved supply-demand dynamics, and strategic upgrades by companies [4]. - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, power batteries, energy storage, and artificial intelligence are expected to drive sustained demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly lithium, nickel, rare earths, and tungsten [4].

1月20日上榜港股通成交活跃榜个股中，洛阳钼业为近一个月首次上榜。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 洛阳钼业为近一个月首次上榜，当日港股通成交额为5.27亿港元，成交净卖出0.98亿港元，该股当日收 盘下跌1.01%。（数据宝） 1月20日港股通成交活跃股榜单 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，1月20日港股通（包括沪市港股通及深市港股通）成交活跃股合计成交 318.29亿港元，占当日港股通成交金额的32.72%，净买入金额8.08亿港元。 上榜的成交活跃股中，腾讯控股成交额为63.88亿港元，成交金额居首；其次是阿里巴巴-W、小米集团- W，成交金额分别为48.94亿港元、46.53亿港元。 以上榜次数统计，1月20日上榜个股中，近一个月上榜次数最多的是阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股等，近一个 月均上榜18次，最受港股通资金关注。 | 证券 | 证券简称 | 成交金额（亿 | 净买入金额（亿 | 近一个月上榜 | 最新收盘价 | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | | 港元） | 港元） | 次数 | （港元） | （%） | | 00700 | 腾 ...

Core Viewpoint - On January 20, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29%, closing at 26,487.51 points, while southbound funds through the Stock Connect recorded a net buy of HKD 36.63 billion [1]. Group 1: Market Activity - The total trading volume for the Stock Connect on January 20 was HKD 972.83 billion, with a net buy of HKD 36.63 billion [1]. - The Shanghai Stock Connect accounted for HKD 594.79 billion in trading volume with a net buy of HKD 34.44 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a trading volume of HKD 378.04 billion and a net buy of HKD 2.18 billion [1]. Group 2: Active Stocks - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, Tencent Holdings was the most actively traded stock with a transaction amount of HKD 37.26 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group-W and Alibaba-W with transaction amounts of HKD 30.51 billion and HKD 23.91 billion, respectively [1]. - Tencent Holdings had a net buy of HKD 5.03 billion, despite its closing price dropping by 1.48% [1]. - China Mobile recorded the highest net sell amount of HKD 6.37 billion, closing flat [1]. Group 3: Shenzhen Stock Connect Activity - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Tencent Holdings also led with a transaction amount of HKD 26.62 billion, followed by Alibaba-W and SMIC with transaction amounts of HKD 25.02 billion and HKD 19.36 billion, respectively [2]. - Meituan-W had the highest net buy amount of HKD 2.54 billion, although it closed down by 1.17% [2]. - SMIC experienced the largest net sell amount of HKD 5.42 billion, closing down by 3.25% [2].

洛阳钼业1月20日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量49.00万股，成交金额1130.43万元，大宗交易成交 价为23.07元。该笔交易的买方营业部为中信证券股份有限公司总部(非营业场所)，卖方营业部为广发证 券股份有限公司广州环市东路证券营业部。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生17笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为4.01亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，洛阳钼业今日收盘价为23.07元，下跌1.03%，日换手率为1.78%，成交额为 71.00亿元，全天主力资金净流出5.71亿元，近5日该股累计上涨1.18%，近5日资金合计净流出14.56亿 元。 | 成交量 （万 | 成交金额 | 成交价 | 相对当日收盘 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （万元） | 格 | 折溢价（%） | | | | 股） | | （元） | | | | | 49.00 | 1130.43 | 23.07 | 0.00 | 中信证券股份有限公司 | 广发证券股份有限公司广州 | | | | | | 总部(非营业场所) | 环市东路证券营业部 | 两融 ...

待债券发行完成后，经扣除经办人佣金及就发售应付的其他估计开支后，债券发行所得款项净额将约为 1,187.5 百万美元。公司拟将该等所得款项用于支持公司境外资源项目的扩产、优化及持续性资本开 支，增强公司营运资金灵活性及一般公司用途。 假设按初始转换价每股 H 股 28.03 港元悉数转换债券，则债券将转换为约 333,739,565 股 H 股，相当于 公司于公告日期现有已发行 H 股数目约 8.48%及公司现有已发行股份数目约1.56%，以及公司悉数转换 债券后的经扩大已发行 H 股数目约7.82%及公司经扩大已发行股份数目约 1.54%。转换股份将悉数缴 足，并在各方面与于相关登记日期当时已发行的 H 股享有同等地位。 格隆汇1月20日丨洛阳钼业(603993.SH)公布，2026 年 1 月 19 日(收市时间后)，公司拟根据债务融资工 具一般性授权及发行股份一般性授权，通过境外间接控股子公司CMOC CapitalLimited(以下简称"发行 人"或"CMOC Capital")发行12亿美元于2027年到期的零息有担保的可转换为公司 H 股的公司债券，公司 将为间接控股子公司 CMOC Capit ...