中信证券研报称，我们认为智驾行业还有两个重要事项值得投资人高度关注：1）法规：新版L2智驾强 标拟于2027年1月1日实施，该法规通过难度大，将更加利好安全属性的硬件以及头部的智驾玩家，加速 行业格局集中；2）L4无人自动驾驶正在加速商业化落地，落地过程将遵循先封闭后开放、先载货后载 人的顺序，我们看好Robotaxi、Robovan和矿山无人驾驶在2026年迎来快速商业化。 ...

Core Insights - Green liquid fuels, including green methanol, green ammonia, and SAF, are key drivers for decarbonization in shipping, aviation, and chemical industries, benefiting from increased carbon tax policies and ongoing cost reductions [1] - The market for green liquid fuels is expected to experience nearly tenfold growth over the next five years, with a long-term market potential reaching trillions of yuan [1] - Domestic manufacturers are leveraging abundant and inexpensive green electricity resources, comprehensive equipment supply, and downstream support systems to accelerate the development of the green liquid fuel industry and business models, achieving leapfrog growth [1] - It is recommended to focus on integrated production manufacturers of green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, as well as core equipment suppliers like electrolyzers [1]

Group 1 - The necessity and feasibility of short-term interest rate cuts may increase due to the current internal and external environment, with weak real estate sales dragging down credit and inflation recovery [1][9] - Real estate policies have not led to significant improvements in housing transactions, with continued low consumer purchasing willingness and pressure from existing housing stock, indicating a need for interest rate cuts to stimulate sales [2][9] - Local government debt issuance rates have risen, leading to increased fiscal pressure, and the effectiveness of debt reduction measures may need to be strengthened, suggesting a potential need for short-term interest rate cuts [3][9] Group 2 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a decline in the US dollar index and improved cross-border capital flows, providing a temporary window for interest rate cuts by the central bank [4][10] - Commercial banks are adjusting their liability structures to alleviate pressure on net interest margins, which have been under strain due to weak social demand and high competition for deposits [5][11] - The continuation of a loose monetary policy environment may improve the demand for long-term bonds, with expectations of a potential recovery in bond market performance by early 2026 [6][12]

● 本报记者 胡雨 对于证券行业2026年发展前景，中国证券报记者梳理发现，政策红利的持续释放有望成为推动板块景气 延续的重要推手，这些政策红利主要体现在三个方面：一是顶层设计层面，"十五五"规划建议提出"加 快建设金融强国""提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性，健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能"等内 容，有望进一步提升资本市场稳定性；二是流动性层面，业内机构普遍预计，2026年货币政策有望维持 适度宽松的整体基调，从而支撑市场流动性保持合理充裕，场外资金入市及机构配置仍有较大提升空 间；三是行业自身发展层面，监管层持续引导建设一流投行，证券行业机构间并购重组持续升温，有利 于各类竞争主体实现错位发展，推动行业格局重塑。 就证券行业自身盈利模式的变化而言，中国银河证券非银行金融行业分析师张琦认为，行业预计将穿越 周期展现强韧性，并通过价值跃迁培育新引擎："2026年市场交投活跃度有望维持高位水平，支撑券商 经纪业务基本盘，同时财富管理转型持续加速有望带来业务新增量；A股再融资实现突破，IPO呈现回 暖迹象，港股融资市场持续火热，头部券商凭借市场口碑和专业能力，竞争优势不断提升；重资本业务 仍将是券商业绩重要驱动 ...

Economic Policy - The meeting emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on the integration effects of stock and incremental policies [1][6] - The fiscal policy maintains a proactive stance, with a reduction in the emphasis on increasing the deficit ratio compared to last year, while highlighting the need to maintain necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure [1][6] - The expected fiscal budget deficit ratio for next year is projected to remain around 4%, with a slight increase in special bonds for local governments [1][6] - The monetary policy will utilize various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, with a potential interest rate cut of about 10 basis points expected in the first half of next year [1][6] Domestic Demand Expansion - The meeting outlined the direction for building a strong domestic market, focusing on boosting consumer spending and increasing income [2][7] - Specific actions include implementing special initiatives to stimulate consumption and developing plans to increase urban and rural residents' income [2][7] - The goal is to stabilize fixed asset investment and reduce its drag on the economy, with an increase in central budget investment and the use of new policy financial tools to support investment growth [2][7] Industrial Development - There is a stronger emphasis on building innovative systems and mechanisms, with clear policy expectations for education, technology, and talent development [2][7] - The industrial policy is expected to follow the "14th Five-Year Plan" framework, focusing on traditional industries, emerging future industries, and AI technology integration [2][7] Reform Initiatives - The meeting highlighted four key areas for reform: unifying the market, stimulating the vitality of various business entities, tax system reform, and financial-related reforms [3][8] - Emphasis on addressing "involution" competition and optimizing the layout of state-owned enterprises while supporting private enterprises through relaxed access and resolving payment arrears [3][8] - Tax reforms will focus on improving the local tax system and potentially shifting consumption tax collection to local levels [3][8] Social Welfare - A comprehensive plan was proposed to address key social issues such as employment, education, healthcare, and social security [4][9] - New measures include encouraging flexible employment participation in insurance, increasing high school enrollment, and optimizing drug procurement and healthcare payment reforms [4][9] - The meeting also stressed the importance of stabilizing the birth rate and addressing risks in key areas, particularly in real estate and local government debt management [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery through various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1][3]. Monetary Policy - The conference highlights the need for "flexible and efficient" use of monetary policy tools, indicating a shift from last year's focus on "timely" adjustments to a more proactive and efficient approach [3][4]. - The policy direction for the upcoming year will prioritize long-term economic development over short-term stimulus effects, integrating both new and existing policies to enhance macroeconomic governance [2][4]. Financial Sector - The conference introduces the initiative to deepen the reduction and quality improvement of small and medium-sized financial institutions, aiming to enhance the efficiency of the financial system in supporting technological innovation and the real economy [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the Central Economic Work Conference will focus on balancing short-term effectiveness with long-term planning for the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the importance of policy implementation and consistency [1] - Fiscal policy will continue to adopt a more proactive stance, maintaining a fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and a deficit scale of approximately 6 trillion yuan by 2026, while optimizing fiscal management and addressing local fiscal difficulties [1] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to enhance efficiency and adapt to long-term economic cycles [1] Group 2 - Expanding domestic demand is identified as the primary task for the coming year, with initiatives aimed at boosting consumer spending and increasing residents' income through targeted actions [2] - Innovation and reform are highlighted as dual engines for high-quality development, with a focus on enhancing corporate innovation, protecting intellectual property, and fostering collaboration between industry, academia, and research [2] - The overall policy deployment aims to stabilize growth in the short term while laying a solid foundation for long-term development, supporting the objectives of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on December 10-11 outlines the economic work for 2026, emphasizing the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the flexible use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] Monetary Policy - The conference indicates that the main tone of "expansive fiscal + expansive monetary" will persist into 2026 [1] - There is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, with expectations for moderate increases in these measures between the end of 2025 and the first half of 2026 [1] - Long-term liquidity tools will be employed to maintain a loose funding environment [1] - Structural tools will focus on key areas such as technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance to enhance policy precision [1]

中央经济工作会议指出，积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地主动化债，不得违规新增隐性债 务。优化债务重组和置换办法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。对此，中信证券首席 经济学家明明认为，在延续隐债"遏增化存"基调下，对融资平台经营性债务的重视程度显著提升。明明 表示，"优化债务重组和置换办法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险"或意味着后续对于 政府债务压力的缓释范围扩大。除常规性隐性债务置换外，2026年或可期待针对融资平台非标债务等经 营性债务风险的新举措出台，以更好化解地方政府债务风险。（上证报） ...

聚焦发展玉兰债 共促开放新格局 -2025年青岛银行金融研讨会 成功举办- 供稿：青岛银行 上海清算所指出，"玉兰债"业务是上海清算所在人民银行指导下研究推出的基于境内外金融基础设施互联互通、统筹安全与开放的中资离岸债券发行创新 模式，也是重要的跨境金融创新产品。"玉兰债"是中资企业面向国际市场发行的境外债券，以人民币、美元、欧元等多币种计价，依托上海清算所与欧洲 清算银行建立的跨境托管联通机制，为发行人与投资者提供安全、高效的登记结算服务。"玉兰债"自2020年12月推出以来，已成为我国债券市场高水平对 外开放的重要创新载体，不仅拓宽了中资企业境外融资渠道，也为全球投资者配置人民币资产提供了便利，在服务实体经济、推动上海国际金融中心建 设、促进人民币国际化等方面具有积极意义。 中信证券团队则从实操层面分享了"玉兰债承销与发行的实务经验"，为与会机构提供了从产品理解到业务落地的全链条知识赋能。 本次研讨会的成功举办，为"玉兰债"等创新产品的推广应用拓宽了路径。搭建了政策解读、市场分析与业务对接的多元平台，既为金融机构把握开放机 遇、防范跨境风险凝聚了共识。会议还围绕宏观市场环境展开了广泛讨论。中信证券专家就国 ...