随着"十五五"开局，多家主流券商近期密集发布2026年北交所投资策略。其中，"新质生产 力"与"中小盘成长股"成为共识性的布局焦点。开源证券建议关注春季行情中代表新质生产力的产业链 机会；中信建投证券认为，新质生产力、科技创新与战略资源等领域将孕育丰富的结构性投资机会。作 为服务创新型中小企业的核心阵地，北交所正日益成为资本市场布局前沿科技与产业升级的重要战场。 投资逻辑转变 历经前期的市场发展和估值修复，主流券商普遍认为，北交所的投资逻辑正发生深刻变化，已从板 块普涨转向个股价值深度挖掘。在这一新范式下，具备核心竞争力的企业将脱颖而出。 从市场节奏来看，华源证券认为，2025年有多达34家北交所公司股价翻倍，显示出强大的市场弹 性，2026年北交所的"春季躁动"行情值得投资者积极布局。 业内普遍认为，随着市场生态持续优化，一个"优质企业聚集—流动性改善—制度赋能—业绩兑 现"的正循环已在北交所逐步形成。这个曾经聚焦"小而美"企业的市场，正聚力迈向"强而久"的新发展 阶段。对于投资者而言，2026年的北交所，将更考验其精准识别真成长企业的能力。 聚焦新质生产力 "新质生产力"已成为券商展望2026年北交所时绕 ...

Core Insights - The internationalization process of Chinese securities firms is accelerating, with a focus on capital raising and expansion into overseas markets [2][3] - Multiple factors, including policy support, market opportunities, and competitive pressures, are driving the trend of Chinese securities firms increasing their capital in Hong Kong subsidiaries [3][4] Group 1: Capital Raising and Expansion - Guangfa Securities plans to raise approximately HKD 61.1 billion through a combination of H-share placement and convertible bonds to support its international business expansion [2] - Since 2025, at least five securities firms have announced capital increase plans for their Hong Kong subsidiaries, with a total proposed capital increase amount nearing HKD 200 billion [3] - The Hong Kong market is becoming a preferred platform for A-share leading companies to establish international capital platforms and for Chinese concept stocks to return [4] Group 2: Business Focus Areas - Chinese securities firms are focusing on three main areas for overseas business: cross-border financing, wealth management, and asset management [4] - The wealth management sector is experiencing rapid growth due to the increasing demand from high-net-worth individuals [4] - Breakthroughs in sectors such as large models, low-altitude economy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and brain-machine interfaces are reshaping the investment logic for Chinese assets, creating opportunities for qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - A "layered competition" and "differentiated development" trend is expected in the overseas business landscape of securities firms over the next 3 to 5 years [6][7] - Leading firms like CICC, CITIC, and Huatai are forming oligopolies in large-scale A+H listings and cross-border mergers, with the top three firms expected to capture over 70% of the market share [6] - Mid-sized firms are focusing on niche sectors such as renewable energy and healthcare, or deepening their presence in emerging markets like Southeast Asia and the Middle East [6][7]

Core Viewpoints - The latest strategies from top brokerages indicate a bullish sentiment in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors like technology, traditional manufacturing, and resource pricing power [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is experiencing a "rally" phase, with significant trading volume and a risk appetite resurgence, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points [4][6] - The market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory until the Spring Festival, driven by favorable macroeconomic indicators and increased participation from institutional investors [3][4][11][13] Group 2: Sector Focus - Brokerages recommend focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robotics, which are anticipated to benefit from policy support and market trends [3][7][12][14] - Traditional manufacturing and resource sectors are highlighted for their potential in pricing power enhancement, with suggestions to increase allocations in non-bank financials [2][4][8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies emphasize a balanced approach, suggesting a mix of growth-oriented and cyclical sectors, with a focus on themes like "anti-involution" and price recovery in industries such as chemicals and metals [7][8][14] - The importance of monitoring market sentiment and performance metrics is stressed, particularly as the market enters a period of earnings announcements and potential volatility [12][13]

Group 1 - Major brokerages have released their latest strategic views, focusing on resource and traditional manufacturing pricing power, with a bullish outlook for the spring market [1][2] - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong PMI and inflation data, as well as increased willingness of external funds to enter the market [2][3] - The market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4100 points, indicating a recovery in risk appetite [3][4] Group 2 - The spring market is characterized by a strong performance of technology and cyclical growth sectors, with a focus on themes such as commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces [4][5] - The current market environment suggests a potential for continued upward momentum, driven by liquidity and favorable policies, with a recommendation to focus on sectors like AI applications and renewable energy [6][7] - The market is expected to maintain its heat in the short term, with policy support likely to bolster investor confidence and attract various types of capital [8][9] Group 3 - The "fifteen five" planning year is anticipated to bring focus to new productivity sectors, with technology innovation and growth sectors expected to see significant opportunities [12] - Key investment themes include industrial metals and chemicals, driven by price recovery expectations and structural improvements in supply and demand [12] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, supported by systemic policy deployments and increasing capital inflows [11][12]

中信证券研报称，年初的躁动缘于跨年踏空资金的集中密集入场，"人心思涨"是大背景，一些前期谨慎 资金的追涨加速了行情演绎，但躁动主要发生在主题板块以及量化影响较大的小票，而非配置型资金布 仓方向。从当前的量价和风偏指标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、 小票轮动的震荡上行格局可能还会延续到两会前后，直至内需预期的上修，市场才会回到基本面驱动状 态。不过，抛开短期的市场躁动，站在全年维度，真正具备持续入场体量的配置型资金今年对权益组合 降低波动的诉求是更高的，需要考虑的是这部分可持续的"大钱"（而不是年初踏空资金）会持续流向的 方向。在配置上，建议资源和传统制造定价权提升逻辑打底，增配非银金融，兼顾反共识品种降低组合 波动。 ...

Group 1 - The market's early-year excitement is driven by a concentration of funds that missed out on the previous year, with a backdrop of "people's desire for growth" [1][2] - The current market movement is primarily seen in thematic sectors and small-cap stocks, rather than in the direction of allocation-type funds [3][4] - Short-term market heat is high, but sentiment indicators have not shown signs of weakening, suggesting that the upward trend in thematic and small-cap stocks may continue until after the Two Sessions [4][15] Group 2 - The performance of small and mid-cap growth styles has significantly outperformed large-cap value styles, with the CSI 500 index rising by 7.9% and the CSI 2000 by 7.2%, compared to the CSI 300's 2.8% [3][13] - The commercial aerospace sector has seen a notable increase, with a trading volume of 729.1 billion yuan on January 9, accounting for 23.1% of total A-share trading [3][13] - The current market environment is characterized by abundant allocation and quantitative funds, while individual stock pricing funds are scarce, indicating a need for a shift back to fundamental-driven trends [15][16] Group 3 - For the year, allocation-type funds are increasingly focused on reducing volatility in their equity positions, as long-term interest rates continue to decline [17][18] - Recommended sectors for investment include resources and traditional manufacturing, with an emphasis on enhancing pricing power, as well as increasing allocations to non-bank financials [7][18] - The market's current excitement may not be the right time for allocation-type funds to chase hot sectors, with a more strategic approach suggested for the critical structural adjustment window in late March to April [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments made by CITIC Securities regarding its business operations, particularly the reduction of certain business types and the regional adjustments in its margin financing and securities lending services following the acquisition of Guangzhou Securities [1][2][4]. Group 1: Business Adjustment Applications - In October 2022, CITIC Securities submitted two applications to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to reduce certain business types, including securities brokerage, investment consulting, and asset management [2][3]. - The CSRC accepted these applications in November 2022, which led to various speculations in the market due to the broad scope of the proposed reductions [2][3]. Group 2: Regional Business Changes - The CSRC indicated that CITIC Securities plans to exclude the regions of Guangdong (excluding Shenzhen), Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan, and Guizhou from its margin financing operations, which is part of a normal business adjustment following the acquisition of Guangzhou Securities [3][4]. - The adjustments are aimed at avoiding potential conflicts of interest and competition between CITIC Securities and its subsidiaries, as per regulatory requirements [4][5]. Group 3: Integration of Guangzhou Securities - Guangzhou Securities was established in 1988 and was merged into CITIC Securities in January 2020, subsequently renamed CITIC Securities South China [4]. - Following the acquisition, CITIC Securities has been restructuring its business operations to delineate the roles of its subsidiaries and ensure compliance with regulatory standards [4][5]. - The integration process has been completed, with CITIC Securities South China now managing 21 branches in the South China region, providing a range of financial services [5].

Key Points - The total bond market in mainland China reached 196.18 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, an increase of 20.30 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year [2] - The issuance of various bonds in 2025 amounted to 89.0 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11% [2] - Interest-bearing bonds issuance reached 33.0 trillion yuan, up 18% from the previous year, with government bonds increasing by 28% and local government bonds by 5% [2][4] - Credit bonds issuance was 22.2 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8% increase year-on-year [2][4] - Interbank certificates of deposit totaled 33.8 trillion yuan, marking a 7% growth [2][4] Bond Issuance Breakdown - Interest-bearing bonds: 3,534 issues, 329,829.6 billion yuan, 18% growth [4] - Government bonds: 206 issues, 160,140.2 billion yuan, 28% growth [4] - Local government bonds: 2,449 issues, 102,901.0 billion yuan, 5% growth [4] - Policy bank bonds: 879 issues, 66,788.4 billion yuan, 17% growth [4] - Credit bonds: 24,003 issues, 222,246.7 billion yuan, 8% growth [4] - Financial bonds: 1,499 issues, 56,780.6 billion yuan, 25% growth [4] - Corporate bonds: 5,871 issues, 44,593.6 billion yuan, 12% growth [5] Market Trends - The overall issuance cost in the bond market showed a downward trend in 2025, with the index reaching a high of 42.68 in mid-March and a low of 33.01 in mid-July [7] - The top three banks in bond underwriting for 2025 were China Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and Construction Bank, with underwriting amounts of 16,765.2 billion yuan, 16,479.0 billion yuan, and 15,020.5 billion yuan respectively [10][11] Underwriting Rankings - The top three securities firms in bond underwriting (excluding local government bonds) were CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Jinpu, with underwriting amounts of 16,136.2 billion yuan, 13,613.4 billion yuan, and 12,419.6 billion yuan respectively [19][20] - For local government bonds, the top three securities firms were CITIC Securities, CITIC Jinpu, and Guotai Junan, with underwriting amounts of 22,491.6 billion yuan, 17,333.3 billion yuan, and 16,426.2 billion yuan respectively [26]

(本文来自第一财经) 中信证券指出，展望2026年，我们认为AI依然是板块估值上行的核心催化，核心关注：1）模型迭代、 应用落地以及业绩兑现带来的叙事强化；2）模型公司上市后带来的估值对标，有望进一步驱动互联网 公司AI业务价值重估。对于短期AI相关性较低的公司，业绩能见度和估值性价比将是选股核心要素， 建议关注竞争格局相对稳定、业绩韧性较强的垂类龙头、以供给创新带动的高景气赛道以及低估值下的 绝对收益标的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The profitability of chemical companies is expected to gradually bottom out and recover, driven by a backdrop of weakening industry capital expenditure and the domestic push against "involution" [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on high-energy-consuming products such as calcium carbide, caustic soda, and yellow phosphorus, which may become effective tools against "involution" [1] - Attention to segments where self-discipline is steadily advancing and initial results of the "involution" countermeasures are visible [1] - Certain products have fallen below or are close to the industry cash cost line, with leading companies having significant cost advantages [1] - Chemical products with strong demand or new demand drivers that have the potential for sustained price increases [1] - Chemical products related to new materials and new applications [1]