財務概要 | | | 截至6月30日止六個月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | 2024年 | 變動 | | | 人民幣百萬元 | 人民幣百萬元 | | | | （未經審核） | （未經審核） | | | 收入 | 8,392.0 | 7,871.4 | 增加6.6% | | 毛利 | 1,626.7 | 1,610.1 | 增加1.0% | | 毛利率 | 19.38% | 20.46% | 降低1.08個 | | | | | 百分點 | | 期內溢利 | 904.0 | 854.6 | 增加5.8% | | 淨利率 | 10.8% | 10.9% | 降低0.1個 | | | | | 百分點 | | 本公司擁有人應佔期內溢利 | 890.6 | 846.0 | 增加5.3% | | （人民幣元） 每股基本盈利 | 1.6178 | 1.5415 | 增加4.9% | 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the levels seen in 2008 and 2014, and is still evolving [3]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [3]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [3]. - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier cities and two-thirds of second-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during sales rebounds [3]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities expected to benefit more from these changes [3]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - The 5-year LPR remains stable at 3.5% as of August, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% [10]. - The real estate index saw a cumulative change of 0.5%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 3.68 percentage points, ranking last among 31 sectors [13]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 1.57 million square meters, a 16.7% increase month-on-month but a 16.1% decrease year-on-year [20]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in the same 30 cities are down 2.1% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a 2.4% increase [25]. Secondary Housing - Secondary home sales in 14 sample cities reached 1.915 million square meters, reflecting a 6.4% month-on-month increase and a 9.5% year-on-year increase [30]. - Cumulative secondary home sales for the year are 6.8677 million square meters, up 16.7% year-on-year [30]. Credit Bonds - In the week of August 18-24, 18 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 15.282 billion yuan, an increase of 6.921 billion yuan from the previous week [39]. - The net financing amount was 3.378 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase [39].

Core Viewpoint - The property service industry is facing significant challenges due to a deep adjustment in the real estate market, with a notable decline in IPO activity and increasing financial asset impairment issues affecting profitability [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, the overall revenue growth rate of the property service industry is expected to decline, with significant performance differentiation among companies [3]. - The first half of 2025 has seen a drastic drop in IPO activity within the property sector, with only Aolian Services submitting a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3]. - The ongoing economic downturn and declining housing asset values have led to a "discounted property fee for vacant houses" trend, with multiple cities announcing reductions in property fees for unoccupied homes [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index has increased by 11%, while the Hang Seng Index has risen by 20%, indicating that property management stocks are underperforming compared to the broader market [4]. - The average stock price increase for 40 tracked Hong Kong property companies was 7.71% in the first half of 2025, with a significant recovery in valuation, as the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) rose from 5.09 to 10.62 [4]. - Notable stock price increases were observed in companies such as Zhong An Smart Life (+108.38%), Deshan Property Investment Services (+39.29%), and China Resources Mixc Life (+35.96%) [4]. Group 3: Market Capitalization and M&A Activity - As of June 30, 2025, there are 38 Hong Kong property companies with a market capitalization of less than 1 billion HKD, representing 63% of the listed property companies [5]. - The number of companies engaging in share buybacks has decreased from 10 to 8, with a total buyback amount of 234 million HKD, down 35.24% year-on-year [5]. - The property sector has seen a decline in merger and acquisition activity, with only 18 public M&A cases reported in the first half of 2025, primarily aimed at expanding business scale and consolidating regional advantages [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is in a recovery phase, with ongoing policy support expected to continue [3][8] - Sales data for the first seven months of 2025 shows a decline in both sales area and sales amount, indicating a challenging market environment [11][13] - Investment in real estate remains under pressure, with new construction and completion rates showing weakness [27][34] - Financing conditions are tightening, but there is potential for improvement as policies are implemented [34][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the sector, suggesting a focus on those with strong fundamentals and safety margins [41][43] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Macro Data Summary - From January to July 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 51,560 million square meters, down 4.0% year-on-year, and the sales amount was 49,566 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [11][12] 2. Sales Recovery Phase - Sales area and amount have decreased, with residential sales showing a decline of 6.2% [13][14] - The market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, but policy measures are expected to boost confidence and stabilize sales [3][13] 3. Investment Pressure - Real estate investment from January to July 2025 decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with new construction area down 19.4% [27][28] - The overall investment trend remains downward, with weak land acquisition and new construction intentions [27][34] 4. Financing Conditions - The total funds available for real estate development decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, but there are signs of potential improvement due to policy support [34][36] 5. Policy Relaxation and Price Trends - Recent policies have led to a narrowing decline in housing prices, indicating a stabilizing market [36][37] 6. Focus on Leading Companies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and safety margins, particularly in first and second-tier cities [41][43] 7. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining a long-term investment perspective in the real estate sector, particularly in companies with robust fundamentals [43]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is at a historical low in holdings, combined with interest rate cuts, which enhances the attractiveness of investments in this sector [4] - The report highlights that the fund holdings in real estate stocks have reached a historical low, with a significant drop in market value from 14.1 billion to 3 billion, a decrease of 80% [19] - The report identifies several driving factors, including low fund holdings, global policy cycles, and high base pressure in Q4 2025, which necessitate further policy support [5] Summary by Sections 1. Real Estate Heavyweight Stock Analysis: Historical Low Holdings - The number of funds holding real estate stocks has reached a five-year low, with a decline from 372 funds in Q4 2020 to 194 funds in Q4 2023 [13] - The total market value of funds holding real estate stocks has decreased significantly, reaching a historical low of 3 billion by H1 2025 [19] - The report notes that the proportion of funds overweight in real estate stocks has remained around 55% over the past five years, indicating a stable but low allocation [23] 2. Impact of US Rate Cuts on Chinese Real Estate Stocks - The report discusses the correlation between US interest rate cuts and the valuation recovery of Chinese real estate stocks, suggesting that these cuts can alleviate pressure on the Chinese yuan and provide opportunities for local rate cuts [56] - It emphasizes that the US rate cuts can improve the financing environment for Chinese real estate companies, thereby enhancing their credit profiles and market valuations [58] - The report anticipates a 92.1% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, which could further influence the Chinese real estate market positively [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate industry, indicating a cautious but potential investment opportunity as the sector adjusts to current market conditions [3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a "W-shaped" bottoming process, with new construction expected to show a trend of rising and then falling in the second half of the year, with the peak likely approaching zero growth [2][39]. - The overall development investment is under pressure, with July's investment amount showing a year-on-year decline of 17.0%, reflecting weaker construction intensity due to declining sales market heat [2][38]. - The funding chain index for the real estate sector has slightly improved but remains at historically low levels, indicating potential future improvements in the financial situation of some companies [2][10]. Summary by Sections Sales and Construction Data - In July, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate for new housing sales area was -7.8%, continuing a trend of low market activity since May [13][14]. - The total sales area for the first seven months of 2025 was 515.6 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.0% [9][14]. - The new construction area in July saw a year-on-year decline of 15.4%, with a cumulative decline of 19.4% for the first seven months [2][39]. Price Trends - The new home price index for 70 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 0.31% in July, with significant drops in second-tier cities [10][11]. - The average price of new homes in July was 9,613 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the narrowing gap between net rental yields and mortgage rates is a key observation point for total demand in both new and second-hand housing markets [37]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable cash flow generation capabilities, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments, as potential investment opportunities [37][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in new housing transaction volume and value, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% in sales area and 6.5% in sales value for the first seven months of 2025 [5][14] - The report indicates a continued downward trend in sales data, with July showing a significant drop of 7.8% in sales area and 14.1% in sales value compared to the previous year [5][14] - The report notes that the construction data shows a narrowing decline, with new construction area down 19.4% year-on-year, while completion area decreased by 16.5% [6][20] - The report emphasizes that the investment in real estate development has seen an increasing decline, with a 12.0% drop in investment amount for the first seven months of 2025 [7][24] - The report mentions that the funding available to real estate developers has decreased by 7.5%, with only personal mortgage loans showing a month-on-month increase [7][27] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first seven months of 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 516 million square meters, down 4.0% year-on-year, with residential sales area down 4.1% [5][14] - The sales value for the same period was 4.96 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, with residential sales value down 6.2% [5][14] Construction Data - The new construction area for the first seven months was 352 million square meters, down 19.4% year-on-year, with residential new construction down 18.3% [6][20] - The completion area was 250 million square meters, down 16.5% year-on-year, with residential completion down 17.3% [6][20] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment for the first seven months was 5.36 trillion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, with residential investment down 10.9% [7][24] - The funding available to developers was 5.73 trillion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans and personal mortgage loans showing slight increases [7][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the traditional off-season in July and August will see continued weakness in supply and demand, with a recommendation for strong credit real estate companies that can capture improvement-driven customer demand [8][33] - It also highlights companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as those with high-quality property management services [8][33]

格隆汇8月13日丨保利物业(06049.HK)宣布，本公司将于2025年8月25日（星期一）举行董事会会议，藉 以（其中包括）考虑及批准本公司及其附属公司截至2025年6月30日止六个月的中期业绩及其刊发，及 处理其他事项。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 POLY PROPERTY SERVICES CO., LTD. 保利物業服務股份有限公司 董事長兼執行董事 吳蘭玉 中國廣州，2025年8月13日 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：06049） 董事會會議召開日期 保利物業服務股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此宣佈，本公司將 於二零二五年八月二十五日（星期一）舉行董事會會議，藉以（其中包括）考慮及 批准本公司及其附屬公司截至二零二五年六月三十日止六個月之中期業績及其刊 發，及處理其他事項。 承董事會命 保利物業服務股份有限公司 於本公告日期，本公司執行董事為吳蘭玉女士及姚玉成先生；本公司非執行董事 為劉平先生及劉智慧先生；及本公司獨立非執行董事為王小軍先生、譚燕女士及 張禮卿先生。 ...

Key Points - The top three stocks with net inflows from southbound funds are Yingfu Fund (02800) with 1.184 billion, Alibaba-W (09988) with 730 million, and Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) with 556 million [1] - The top three stocks with net outflows are WuXi Biologics (02269) with -539 million, Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) with -509 million, and SMIC (00981) with -432 million [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Shanghai Industrial Holdings (00363) leads with 63.56%, followed by Bank of China Aviation Leasing (02588) with 60.26%, and Sunshine Insurance (06963) with 55.37% [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net outflow ratios are GX China (03040) at -100.00%, Southern Hang Seng Index ETF (03037) at -65.52%, and Sichuan Chengyu Expressway (00107) at -49.23% [1] Top 10 Net Inflows - Yingfu Fund (02800) had a net inflow of 1.184 billion, representing a 16.79% increase, closing at 25.380 [2] - Alibaba-W (09988) saw a net inflow of 730 million, with a 10.34% increase, closing at 116.300 [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net inflow of 556 million, with an 8.70% increase, closing at 91.160 [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net inflow of 473 million, with a 6.69% increase, closing at 51.250 [2] - Zai Ding Pharmaceutical (09688) had a net inflow of 429 million, with a 26.73% increase, closing at 27.200 [2] Top 10 Net Outflows - WuXi Biologics (02269) experienced a net outflow of -539 million, with a -33.02% decrease, closing at 29.360 [2] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) had a net outflow of -509 million, with a -21.78% decrease, closing at 44.000 [2] - SMIC (00981) saw a net outflow of -432 million, with a -3.98% decrease, closing at 48.660 [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) had a net outflow of -292 million, with a -14.76% decrease, closing at 79.150 [2] - Juzi Biotechnology (02367) experienced a net outflow of -220 million, with a -24.75% decrease, closing at 59.000 [2] Net Inflow Ratios - Shanghai Industrial Holdings (00363) had a net inflow ratio of 63.56%, with a net inflow of 11.36 million, closing at 14.870 [3] - Bank of China Aviation Leasing (02588) had a net inflow ratio of 60.26%, with a net inflow of 3.56 million, closing at 73.500 [3] - Sunshine Insurance (06963) had a net inflow ratio of 55.37%, with a net inflow of 2.48 million, closing at 3.790 [3] - Poly Property (06049) had a net inflow ratio of 52.60%, with a net inflow of 1.14 million, closing at 34.880 [3] Net Outflow Ratios - GX China (03040) had a net outflow ratio of -100.00%, with a net outflow of -7100.00, closing at 35.460 [3] - Southern Hang Seng Index ETF (03037) had a net outflow ratio of -65.52%, with a net outflow of -724,900, closing at 25.400 [3] - Sichuan Chengyu Expressway (00107) had a net outflow ratio of -49.23%, with a net outflow of -380,740, closing at 4.920 [3]