Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][23] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.5 billion yuan, which is a 7% increase year-on-year. The property management service revenue grew by 15% to 11.7 billion yuan, while community value-added service revenue was 2.7 billion yuan [1][9] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 18.3%, down by 1.3 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 9.0%, down by 0.2 percentage points. The management expense ratio decreased to 6.9%, down by 1.2 percentage points. The dividend payout ratio reached 50%, an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year [1][9] - The company expanded its presence to 194 cities with 2,821 managed projects and 3,230 contracted projects, covering a total area of 990 million square meters. The new contract amount for the year was 3 billion yuan, with office and public service expansions contributing 1.1 billion and 1.6 billion yuan, respectively [2][19] - Community value-added service revenue stabilized at 2.7 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36.8%, down by 1.6 percentage points. Community life service revenue accounted for 69% of this segment, while community asset management services made up 31% [2][19] - The company reported a cash balance of 11.9 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, with operating cash flow covering net profit by 1.5 times. Trade receivables stood at 2.8 billion yuan, with over 90% due within one year [2][19] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 and 2026 is adjusted to 17.5 billion yuan and 18.7 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 19 billion yuan and 21.3 billion yuan. The net profit forecasts for the same years are 1.6 billion yuan and 1.7 billion yuan, revised from 1.8 billion yuan and 1.9 billion yuan [3][4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 2.84 yuan and 3.05 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.1 and 8.9 times [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][19] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.5 billion yuan, which is a 7% increase year-on-year. The property management service revenue was 11.7 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year, while community value-added service revenue was 2.7 billion yuan [9][19] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 18.3%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 9.0%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. The management expense ratio was 6.9%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. The dividend payout ratio reached 50%, an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year [9][19] - The company expanded its presence to 194 cities by the end of 2024, managing 2,821 projects with a total contracted area of 990 million square meters. The new contract amount for the year was 3 billion yuan, with office and public service expansions contributing 1.1 billion and 1.6 billion yuan, respectively [2][19] - The community value-added service revenue stabilized at 2.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 36.8%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. Community life service revenue accounted for 69% of this segment, while community asset management service revenue made up 31% [2][19] - The company reported a cash balance of 11.9 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, with operating cash flow covering net profit by 1.5 times. Trade receivables stood at 2.8 billion yuan, with over 90% due within one year, and contract liabilities increased by 24% to 1.8 billion yuan [2][19] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 and 2026 is adjusted to 17.5 billion yuan and 18.7 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 19 billion yuan and 21.3 billion yuan. The net profit forecasts for the same years are 1.6 billion yuan and 1.7 billion yuan, revised down from 1.8 billion yuan and 1.9 billion yuan [3][19] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 2.84 yuan and 3.05 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.1 and 8.9 times [3][19] - Key financial metrics for 2024 include a revenue growth of 8.5%, a net profit growth of 6.8%, and a return on equity (ROE) of 15.2% [4][21]

Core Viewpoint - The property management industry is transitioning to a high-quality development phase, leading to a downward revision of Poly Property's (06049) EPS forecasts for 2025-2026 to RMB 2.84/3.05 from the previous RMB 3.18/3.60, with a new 2027 EPS forecast of RMB 3.33, reflecting growth rates of 6.5%, 7.4%, and 9.4% respectively, and a target price adjustment to HKD 36.68 based on a 12x PE for 2025 [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 16.342 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.474 billion, up 6.79% year-on-year [2] - The company optimized its cost structure, resulting in a management expense ratio of 6.9%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, with comprehensive gross and net profit margins of 18.26% and 9.02%, respectively, reflecting decreases of 1.35 and 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a robust cash flow, with operating net cash flow of RMB 2.3 billion in 2024, covering net profit by 1.5 times [3] - The board proposed a dividend of RMB 1.332 per share (before tax) for the year ending December 31, 2024, representing a 33.5% increase year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 50%, up 10 percentage points from 40% in 2023 [3] Market Expansion and Quality Improvement - By the end of 2024, the company managed a contract area of approximately 988.1 million square meters and a managed area of 803.4 million square meters, serving 2.29 million households across 194 cities [4] - In 2024, the company achieved a record high of approximately RMB 300.52 million in new third-party project contracts, with 79.5% of new contracts coming from 50 core cities, including significant contributions from Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Chengdu, Changsha, and Tianjin [4] - The company improved the structure of its market expansion, with 75.9% of new contracts in five core non-residential sectors, an increase of approximately 10.3 percentage points year-on-year, and 90 new projects exceeding RMB 10 million in contract value, accounting for about 65.0% of new contract amounts [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, with a focus on financially stable and well-performing leading companies [2]. Core Views - Recent government policies have been implemented to support the real estate market, including the cancellation of sales restrictions in Nanjing and adjustments to down payment ratios in Tianjin, which are expected to stimulate demand [7][17]. - The real estate market is experiencing structural differentiation, with new home sales declining while second-hand home sales show slight resilience [7][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading real estate companies that can effectively navigate market fluctuations, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Mixc Life [7][19]. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.9%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.37%, indicating that the sector outperformed the broader market by 0.47% [3][13]. - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 1,034.3 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 995.5 billion yuan [8]. Industry Fundamentals Primary Market Analysis - In the week of March 28 to April 3, a total of 31,221 new homes were sold across 38 key cities, representing a year-on-year decline of 33.7% and a month-on-month decline of 15% [5][21]. - The total transaction area for new homes was 3.821 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.9% [5][21]. Secondary Market Analysis - During the same week, 22,398 second-hand homes were sold in 16 key cities, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 10.7% [32]. - The total transaction area for second-hand homes was 2.178 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.5% [32]. Inventory Situation - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 186.291 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a depletion cycle of 156.6 weeks [45][52]. Land Market Analysis - In the week of March 24 to March 30, land supply reached 21.186 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, while the average supply price was 2,715 yuan per square meter, up 223.2% year-on-year [53]. - Land transactions totaled 23.359 million square meters, with a transaction amount of 62.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.4% [53].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][14] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.342 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.474 billion RMB, up 6.8% year-on-year [5][7] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement while expanding the quality of its services [4][6] - The company proposed a final dividend of 1.332 RMB per share, increasing the payout ratio from 40% to 50% of net profit attributable to shareholders [7][11] Revenue Performance - The company reported a revenue of 16.342 billion RMB for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8% projected for 2025 and 2026 [4][8] - The revenue increase was primarily driven by the continuous expansion of property management services [7][10] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin slightly declined from 19.61% in 2023 to 18.26% in 2024, with specific service segments experiencing varying degrees of margin compression [7][10] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 9.0%, with a projected decline in return on equity (ROE) from 16% in 2024 to 13.2% by 2027 [4][13] Business Segmentation - The property management service segment generated 11.675 billion RMB in revenue, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase, while non-owner value-added services saw a revenue decline of 6.4% [8][10] - The company secured new third-party project contracts worth 3.005 billion RMB in 2024, with a significant portion of its managed area coming from third-party projects [8][10] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.88 RMB and 3.09 RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 3.33 RMB [10][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 16.34 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 1.47 billion RMB, up 6.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 50%, with a proposed dividend of 1.332 RMB per share, marking a 33.5% increase from the previous year [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company reported a revenue of 163.4 billion RMB for 2024, with a gross profit of 29.8 billion RMB, and a net profit margin of 9.1%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points [1]. - The cash and bank balance at the end of 2024 was approximately 11.9 billion RMB, an increase of 7.8% compared to the end of 2023 [1]. Business Structure and Growth - The company has adjusted its business structure, leading to improved operational efficiency. The revenue from property management, non-owner value-added, and community value-added services was 116.7 billion RMB, 19.6 billion RMB, and 27.1 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of +15.0%, -6.4%, and -3.9% [2]. - The company has achieved a record high in external contract amounts, with 3 billion RMB in new third-party project contracts in 2024, focusing on core cities [3]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company has effectively managed its cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 2.3 billion RMB, covering net profit by 1.55 times. The accounts receivable net value was about 2.8 billion RMB, accounting for 17.1% of total revenue [3]. - The dividend payout ratio has been increased to 50%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1.57 billion RMB and 1.71 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.8 billion RMB [4]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for the upcoming years are 11, 10, and 9 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating strong earnings visibility [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market in response to the ongoing trade war, emphasizing the need for domestic demand expansion [2][3]. - It notes a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 23% week-on-week and 26% year-on-year in April [4][7]. - The report indicates that the government is implementing policies to stabilize the market, including the cancellation of housing transfer restrictions in Nanjing and the expansion of housing fund withdrawal policies [32][33]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - New housing sales in 34 key cities totaled 3.093 million square meters last week, a week-on-week decrease of 23.4% [4]. - Year-on-year, new housing sales in April are down 26%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 21% decline and third and fourth-tier cities experiencing a 49% drop [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - Second-hand housing sales in 13 key cities fell by 26.2% week-on-week, with April sales down 15% year-on-year [13]. - Cumulative sales for the year to date show a 26.5% increase compared to the previous year [13]. New Housing Inventory - In 15 key cities, 710,000 square meters of new housing were launched last week, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 2.08, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [21]. - The total available residential area in these cities is 88.71 million square meters, reflecting a 0.9% decrease week-on-week [21]. Policy and News Tracking - The report discusses macroeconomic policies, including the imposition of tariffs on U.S. imports and the rise in manufacturing PMI to 50.5%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [32][33]. - It highlights local government initiatives, such as Nanjing's cancellation of housing transfer restrictions and the expansion of housing fund policies in various cities [32][33]. - The report also notes the active land market in core cities, with significant land sales and project launches reported in the first quarter of 2025 [32][33].

Summary of Poly Property Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Poly Property - **Year**: 2024 performance and 2025 outlook discussed Key Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: 8.5% increase to 16.3 billion RMB in 2024 [3] - **Profit Growth**: 6.8% increase to 1.474 billion RMB [3] - **Core Property Management Revenue**: 71.4% of total revenue, driven by residential project management from Poly Development [3][4] - **Community Value-Added Services**: 16.6% of total revenue, amounting to 2.71 billion RMB, with 70% from community life services [4] - **Non-Owner Value-Added Business**: 12% of total revenue, generating 1.96 billion RMB [3][4] - **Cash Reserves**: Approximately 11.9 billion RMB, with operating net cash flow of 2.3 billion RMB [3][4] - **Net Profit Coverage Ratio**: 1.5 times, indicating strong financial health [3] 2025 Outlook - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: Expected to maintain growth of over 5% [3][4] - **Core Property Management Growth**: Anticipated to exceed 10% [3] - **Community Value-Added Services**: Facing downward pressure but expected to stabilize overall [3] - **Dividend Policy**: Plans to increase dividend payout ratio to enhance shareholder returns [3] Operational Strategies - **Project Management**: Improved collection rate for service fees to 86%, up by 1.4 percentage points [3][5] - **Focus Areas**: Concentrating on core cities, key business types, and large clients, with a focus on projects over 10 million RMB [5] - **Quality Control**: Streamlining project selection and clearing inefficient projects to enhance business quality [5] Challenges and Industry Dynamics - **Community Value-Added Services**: Facing industry bottlenecks and declining consumer sentiment [6][7] - **Market Conditions**: The company is adapting to a challenging environment with a focus on core product categories and community needs [7] - **Real Estate Cycle Impact**: The company is cautious due to the real estate cycle and aims for steady growth while maintaining cash flow [9] M&A Market Insights - **M&A Opportunities**: Notable changes in the M&A market with attractive pricing in the 5 to 8 times range [10] - **Target Focus**: Core residential property management companies, state-owned logistics teams, and community value-added service companies [11] Technology and Innovation - **AI Applications**: Exploring AI in operational management and energy management to improve efficiency and profitability [14] - **Current Status**: Technology application is still developing, with plans to enhance efforts in 2025 [14] Conclusion - **Overall Strategy**: Poly Property is focused on maintaining financial health, enhancing shareholder returns, and navigating industry challenges through strategic project management and technology integration [9][14]

[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 04 月 02 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 保利物业（6049.HK）房地产 目标价：——港元 买入 （维持） 当前价：31.95 港元 管理规模稳健增长，分红比例提升 数据来源：聚源数据 -4% 8% 20% 31% 43% 55% 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 25/3 保利物业 恒生指数 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 52 周区间(港元) | 24.75-39.85 | | 3 个月平均成交量(百万) | 1.12 | | 流通股数(亿) | 5.53 | | 市值(亿) | 176.79 | 相关研究 [Table_Report] 1. 保利物业（6049.HK）：业绩稳健增长， 外拓量质同步提升 (2024-08-21) 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 风险提示：增值服务不及预期、管理规模拓展不及预期等风险。 | 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5][15]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.34 billion RMB in 2024, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.474 billion RMB, up 6.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company announced a dividend of 1.33 RMB per share, a 33.5% increase from the previous year, with a payout ratio of 50% [1]. - The company has a strong growth momentum backed by its parent company, Poly Group, with significant internal growth and stable external expansion [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company generated revenue from property management, non-owner value-added services, and community value-added services amounting to 11.67 billion RMB, 1.96 billion RMB, and 2.71 billion RMB respectively, with property management revenue increasing by 15% [1]. - The gross profit margin for the company was 18.26%, a decrease of 1.35 percentage points from 2023 [1]. - The company’s management expenses decreased by 1.32 percentage points to 6.94% in 2024 [1]. Contract and Project Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company had a contracted and managed area of 988 million square meters and 803 million square meters, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.1% and 11.6% [2]. - The company achieved a record high in new contracts for third-party projects, amounting to 3.01 billion RMB, a 1.2% increase year-on-year [2]. - The proportion of non-residential property management area increased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year, reaching 60.9% [2]. Service Revenue and Pricing - The average property management fee for residential properties was 2.41 RMB per square meter per month, an increase of 0.1 RMB from the previous year [3]. - Revenue from value-added services decreased by 3.9% year-on-year to 2.71 billion RMB, accounting for approximately 17% of total revenue [3]. - Non-owner value-added service revenue was approximately 1.96 billion RMB, down 6.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the scale of certain business operations [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is adjusted to 1.54 billion RMB and 1.79 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.93 billion RMB [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 2.66 RMB, with a gradual increase expected in subsequent years [4].